Thread Rating:

lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
November 10th, 2017 at 3:30:19 PM permalink
Roy h at the Breeders cup sprint went off just shy of 5/1 because Drefong was way over bet

He has blazing speed and a strong will to win

was a very high class Grade 1 winner

You don't get to bet horses like that at odds like that very often
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
November 27th, 2017 at 4:39:55 AM permalink
Anyone partake in the Derby future pool over the weekend?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
November 28th, 2017 at 3:15:22 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Anyone partake in the Derby future pool over the weekend?




I've never bet into a future pool. but I did take a look at the one that just closed. if I was going to bet I would have taken the Mutual Field (all others) at 6/5. it's only November and the race is in May. Lots of chances left for young horses to greatly improve. i think most of those who bet into the future book are looking for big numbers which may make a small payout like the one I mentioned a better deal than it should be.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 28, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
December 1st, 2017 at 2:59:56 AM permalink
aqueduct has a Grade 1 on Saturday the Cigar Mile

this link gets you to free PPs. click on Mind Your Biscuits ultimate PPs. a few other free PPs for other races are there too.


http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Vinery/POSSE/2000/summary.html
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
December 1st, 2017 at 4:49:13 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I've never bet into a future pool. but I did take a look at the one that just closed. if I was going to bet I would have taken the Mutual Field (all others) at 6/5. it's only November and the race is in May. Lots of chances left for young horses to greatly improve. i think most of those who bet into the future book are looking for big numbers which may make a small payout like the one I mentioned a better deal than it should be.



I put $100 on the all others every year in November. I think it's 2 for 4.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
December 1st, 2017 at 6:09:04 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I put $100 on the all others every year in November. I think it's 2 for 4.


I would guess that you might get higher odds for that bet when the pool first opens. Am I right?
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
December 3rd, 2017 at 9:13:51 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I would guess that you might get higher odds for that bet when the pool first opens. Am I right?



I'm not quite sure what you mean. Churchill runs a future wager pool 4 times a year. November, Feb, March, April. It's pari-mutuel and runs for 3 days in each of those 4 times. There are 23 individual horses named and #24 is all others. There is also exacta betting available.

In November the odds on All Others has been between 4/5 - 7/5
In February the odds for All Others is around 2-1
In March it's around 9/2
In April it's around 9/1
Keeneone
Keeneone
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
December 8th, 2017 at 7:25:16 PM permalink
Terrible day yesterday for horseracing (and those connected to it) with the big fire at SLR training track. There are some amazing videos out there on the interwebs about his event. Story of lost horses:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/225093/horsemen-report-equine-deaths-in-san-luis-rey-fire


Here is a link to one (warning** this may be difficult to watch with disturbing images):
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
December 27th, 2017 at 4:26:07 AM permalink
superior genetically engineered horses. I'm not sure what to think about this or if it could ever impact thoroughbred racing. it's pretty mind boggling.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/12/26/genetically-engineered-super-horses-born-2019-could-soon-compete/
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
January 2nd, 2018 at 10:22:44 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

superior genetically engineered horses. I'm not sure what to think about this or if it could ever impact thoroughbred racing. it's pretty mind boggling.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/12/26/genetically-engineered-super-horses-born-2019-could-soon-compete/

Clones aren't allowed in thoroughbred racing. They closed Storm cat, and use him for these kinds of horses. I think it would be cool if the same horse raced from all posts, that would be interesting.
I am a robot.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
January 9th, 2018 at 5:04:06 AM permalink
I'm going to gloat about my future bet now because if I don't do it now, I'll probably never have a chance.

In the November pool, I always do $100 on the field. This year I also picked 2 individual horses (bet $10 and $5) and then did a $2 exacta box.

My $10 win bet was on Mask at 47-1. He just won the Mucho Macho Man by 6 lengths.

Then I did a $2 exacta box with Mask and McKinzie. McKinzie just won the Sham stakes easily. That exacta would be $1400 or $800.

So if only the race was the first Saturday in February, I'd have probably 2 of the top 5 horses.

Things change quickly, so I'm obviously not too excited.

There are 3 derby prep races this weekend, then we take a break until February 3rd which I feel is the start to Derby season. It will be fun!
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 20th, 2018 at 6:25:56 AM permalink
Pegasus World Cup with $16 mill purse is next Saturday at Gulfstream. Several other stakes races on the card.
Gun Runner will surely be the favorite. Here are the entries. I'm not 100% sure if this is final or not. I think it is.


Gunnevera Luis Saez Antonio Sano Venezuelan owner Salomon Del-Vallee has reached a deal with Pegasus stakeholder William Gallo of Gallo Stables and Bella Inizio Farm
Toast of New York Frankie Dettori Jamie Osborne Pegasus stakeholders Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, R.A. Hill Stable, and Eric Young have reached a deal with Al Shaqab Racing
Seeking the Soul John Velazquez Dallas Stewart Charles Fipke purchased one spot in the Pegasus, which will be used for this year’s Clark Handicap winner Seeking the Soul. Fipke had also discussed running Forever Unbridled right after she won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), but since indicated he’d run only one horse
Gun Runner Florent Geroux Steve Asmussen Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm
West Coast Javier Castellano Bob Baffert Gary and Mary West
Collected Mike Smith Bob Baffert Speedway Stable LLC
Stellar Wind Joel Rosario Chad Brown Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith (Coolmore Stud) purchased her at the Keeneland November sale
War Story TBD Jorge Navarro Ron Paolucci and Ashley Quartarolo of Loooch Racing made a deal with The Stronach Group
Game Over TBD Jorge Navarro Loooch Racing made a deal with The Stronach Group
Sharp Azteca Irad Ortiz, Jr. Jorge Navarro Ivan Rodriguez made a deal for the spot owned by Loooch Racing
Giant Expectations Gary Stevens Peter Eurton The ownership group of Exline-Border Racing, Gatto Racing, and Garrett Zubok made a deal with The Stronach Group
Fear the Cowboy TBD Efren Loza, Jr. Co-owned by Raffaele Centofanti and Kathleen Amaya, will run in the Pegasus for the partnership of Stronach Stables,
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
January 21st, 2018 at 10:02:37 AM permalink
If I was betting on this race... Which I'm not because I'm in the middle of no gamble January, I'd be betting on Sharp Azteca. And the best bet would be on a future bet at the Wynn. I'd hope Gun Runner draws the 12, and Sharp Azteca can somehow hold on.

Toast of NY is interesting too. Those are my top 3.

So if I was betting $22 on the race, I would do..

$10 Win - Sharp Azteca
$1 Exacta Box - Azteca, Toast of NY, Gun Runner
$.50 Trifecta Box - Azteca, Toast of NY, Gun Runner
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 21st, 2018 at 10:25:44 AM permalink
Gun Runner is so strong I don't think I can resist betting on him.
I know he'll bet bet down too low in the win pool.
I'm hoping the soft money, once in blue moon bettors leave him alone in the place and show pools.
Quite a few newbies think place means the horse has to come in 2nd and show means the horse has to come in 3rd.
So they pick other than the favorite for place and show.
I'll scope out the pools and if see if there's an imbalance.
A large field helps that possibility.
If there's not I'll hook him in front of and behind a couple shots in the exacta.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
January 21st, 2018 at 10:29:11 AM permalink
The show bet on him is going to pay $2.20 tops.

I don't think there's going to be as much soft money as you think because the race is not that popular.

The place might be a good idea. I could see $2.80 on him to place and $3.20 for him to win. That means a place bet on him is definitely the better value.

He always shows up, I just don't see him falling out of top 2.
ahiromu
ahiromu
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 2107
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
January 21st, 2018 at 10:31:19 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quite a few newbies think place means the horse has to come in 2nd and show means the horse has to come in 3rd.
So they pick other than the favorite for place and show.



I'm new to horse racing but... are people really this stupid? I know the answer to this question, when it's asked, is usually "yes" ... but really?
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
January 21st, 2018 at 10:35:15 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

I'm new to horse racing but... are people really this stupid? I know the answer to this question, when it's asked, is usually "yes" ... but really?



A lot of people think you get paid more if the horse you bet to place finishes 2nd. Or the horse you bet to show finishes 3rd. So they might be less likely to pick a favorite, because that horse is more likely to win.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 21st, 2018 at 1:34:25 PM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

I'm new to horse racing but... are people really this stupid?



stupid is just too strong a word.
they just come out to have a good time - they don't really care that much.
one horse for win, a different one for place and a different one for show.


GOD LOVE THEM!!!!

without them there would be no horse racing or it would be a shadow of what it is.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
January 25th, 2018 at 8:31:22 AM permalink
Horse Virus
Sixty horses in two barns at Fox Equine Center at Meadows Casino
in quarantine.
Racing continues with other horses.

source: wpxi a Pittsburg TV station and website,
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2272
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
January 25th, 2018 at 11:47:57 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

... are people really this stupid?s"

<...SNIP...>

... but really?

Yes. Really. (I'm not as nice as LRR.)

But, unfortunately, those nice salt-of-the-Earth really stupid folks tend to have less lazy money available to bet per head, being victims of unfair social & economic oppression of the noble community of impulsive & stupid & lazy & drunk & stoned people and whatnot. So in an ordinary race the cumulative effect of their cognitively challenged & knowledge deprived money can easily be erased at the last second by a small number of thoroughly prepared people who know exactly what they're doing, and are set up to get the money in electronically at the last possible tote-board click.

So, nowadays with technology for nearly instantaneous dissemination of racing/wagering information & widespread national and international simulcast wagering making nearly all wagers at all tracks available to most people, resulting in a more efficient & more correctly priced wagering market most of the time, exploiting anomalies in the payouts this way is more difficult. Opportunities to exploit imbalances in separate but correlated wagering pools are greatest during the really big events that are most covered in general interest sports & info-tainment media and are most popular with the general public. Like Kentucky Derby day (and not necessarily just on the Derby or even races at Churchill Downs) when the teeming masses of dumb bucks overwhelm the effect of others who are prepared to arbitrage among the pools, and last-tick wagering is also more problematic as the pari-mutual systems are strained to capacity.

I dunno about the likely size of the effect of the Pegasus thing, compared to most other weekends with several moderately significant graded stakes scheduled at major tracks. I have a guess, but that's all it is. This setup for this race isn't for me, other than being a spectator watching a sporting event, but I'll be interested in the undercard.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Jan 25, 2018
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
January 25th, 2018 at 2:15:14 PM permalink
Anybody kind enough to post pp for Pegasus Gold Cup please? Thanks.
ahiromu
ahiromu
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 2107
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
January 25th, 2018 at 2:57:32 PM permalink
I still stand by my statement that people making bets they don't understand are stupid, but I don't think I would use that exact word to their face. Even if it's just for $5-10, that just changes the level of stupidity, right?

In my limited experience, the worst tracks for those last minute big money dumps are the smaller tracks. Charles Town/Mtnr, Delta Downs, etc. Like, where the handle triples between the final screen and the time they finally tabulate it and the horses are past the 1/4 mile post.

I'll probably put $50 on Collected or $100 on Gun Runner to win. Depends on where the money lands, I doubt Collected will end at 8-1.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2272
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
January 25th, 2018 at 3:21:24 PM permalink
^ I guess you could make the argument that some very casual effectively blind bettors with realistic expectations still get more entertainment value outta that than dusting it off on some spins of a roulette wheel or vaporizing it by slapping a slot machine button. And I think probably be right about that. For some, with a healthy clarity about what they are really doing.

Then there are others. Methinks it only becomes truly stupid when some others somehow find a way to imagine maybe they are going to become net winners with their spectacularly lazy glorified version of blind coin flipping numerology. Or like some I know of, including plenty of ludicrously obvious but persistently oblivious examples on this forum, their fevered noggin' even manages to believe they already are really winning... *

*(...aside from this little itty bitty temporary unlucky cold streak going on for about the last five, ten, twenty, thirty years or so with all those emotionally erased tweaker-bets that "don't really count" and all that "nevermind" money puked away & imagined out of existence on all those "don't count" bets).

Quote: speedycrap

Anybody kind enough to post pp for Pegasus Gold Cup please? Thanks.


Link to DRF, GP-12th race on Sat-1/27 PP (in 'pdf' file format)

Link to BRISnet, GP-12th race on Sat-1/27 PP (in 'pdf' file format) [Edit-??, see below]

EDIT: For some reason going to the BRISnet link above by clicking from here returns an "invalid parameter" error message when I test it, even though I have no problem getting the PPs at that same web address by other means. So, in case anyone else is having that trouble, one alternate way to access the same BRIS version PPs for that race without charge would be from one of the relevant links on the web page at the link below, through the clickable label called "Ultimate PPs" under the main left-side header "Saturday January 27, 2018" and then "Gulfstream Park - Race 12" in the center column:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Jan 25, 2018
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 25th, 2018 at 4:22:29 PM permalink
if it wasn't for those who throw money away on hopeless longshots just because they pay big

or bet overrated favorites way down to skimpy payouts

nobody would have half a prayer of winning at the track


thanks for the PPs Dead
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
ahiromu
ahiromu
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 2107
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
January 25th, 2018 at 6:24:40 PM permalink
Yup, thanks for the PP's. Toast of New York has quite a story, the sheik that bought him right before the injury got kind of screwed.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 999
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
January 25th, 2018 at 8:23:57 PM permalink
forget the Pegasus, the real money is the mandatory pick 6 on sunday
get second you pig
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 26th, 2018 at 2:43:25 AM permalink
Sharp Azteca is definitely live. Fear the Cowboy is not equal in class to some the others. Collected disappointed with lower Beyers and got 3rd going off at 3/10 last time out in a G2 in a small field of just 5. West Coast could definitely be involved at a nice price.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 26, 2018
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
January 26th, 2018 at 4:09:21 AM permalink
Sharp Azteca would be my win bet. Xpressbet has some nice promotions with the race.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 26th, 2018 at 4:35:20 AM permalink
in the undercard in the Turf Sprint Pay any Price is very fast and listed at 3/1 but I doubt it, he'll probably be bet down a lot. his last race he posted some fabulous early splits of 21.29 and 43.86 while dueling and still finished strong. looks like he can put away his rivals early and they'll have to try and catch him.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 26, 2018
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
January 27th, 2018 at 2:15:55 PM permalink
17 MTP

Gun Runner is 6/5.

Sharp Azteca at 6-1 would still be my bet. But I like Toast of NY and Stellar Wind to fill out any trifecta or superfecta with the other two I mentioned.

I just don't like West Coast and Collected in this spot. I know I could look foolish in 20 minutes for saying that.
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
January 27th, 2018 at 2:52:39 PM permalink
Easy money for Gun Runner. Real easy.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 27th, 2018 at 3:11:01 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I know I could look foolish in 20 minutes for saying that.



every single human being who ever made a public prediction about a horse race is going to look foolish a lot of the time.



West Coast has been in the money every single race of his career and he's only been worse than 2nd once. and he's young, he just turned 4. Respect.


Gun Runner never won a triple crown race. what a great way to end a career. 5 Grade 1 wins in a row.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 27, 2018
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2272
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
January 27th, 2018 at 3:40:18 PM permalink
Drawing off to get his picture taken in 1:47 & change after pushing a contested 1:101 at a two-turn distance on the Gulfstream surface was a legitimately great performance, worthy of a premier Grade 1 event.
Quote: lilredrooster

...<SNIP>...I know he'll bet bet down too low in the win pool.
I'm hoping the soft money, once in blue moon bettors leave him alone in the place and show pools....<SNIP>...

I think that was a solid bet; and not just because of the result today.

The win pool on him held in the range of 38-40% of the total, while the place pool was about 20%-ish early before becoming 30% late, and show on him was remarkably steady at 20-22% of that pool. That's significantly less merging of the differential proportions between the Win pool pct. vs. Plc & Shw shares than I commonly expect to see, and at even money odds 'on-the-nose' I thought it offered close to fair value straight-up to win, and he went to post with Place & Show offering a range of probable payouts that were solid bets providing better than fair value, IMO.

30% is what I expect to see 'underneath' on about an 8/5 shot, and 20-ish is about right for something going to post at a legit 5/2 in the Win pool.. Of course the order of finish behind him resulted in the smallest possible actual Place payout from that wagering distribution in the field, but even so I wouldn't mind cashing tickets at a $3 for $2 price there at all. 'Real Big Swingin' Stick Gamblers' will sneer at that kind of wagering. Screw 'em. It is a favorable long-range risk/reward ratio.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
January 27th, 2018 at 7:42:02 PM permalink
I think the reason the show payout was so high on Gun Runner was that all the ADWs were doing a promotion that you got your win bet back if your horse finishes 2nd and 3rd.

The smart bet with that promotion is betting the favorite. But you're probably not going to back up that win bet with a place or show bet. I think that creates value in the show pool. $2.80 on Gun Runner to show was a great bet. 22% of show money on an even money favorite is a great opportunity.

I did not bet because of my no bet January. I would have lost $22 on my Sharp Azteca wins and exactas with Gun Runner. But I would have certainly done the $25 max Gun Runner no risk win bet.

Gun Runner ran the perfect race from the 10 hole. The race was over about 5 seconds in.

I'll be following (not betting) GP tomorrow for the Rainbow 6.

Next week there should be some good cards at GP & SA on Saturday.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
January 28th, 2018 at 12:49:54 PM permalink
Here is the Rainbow 6 ticket I did not play:

2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 / 2, 5, 6 / 2, 3, 4, 7, 9 / 2, 5 / 2, 4 / 8 = $72
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
January 28th, 2018 at 2:09:15 PM permalink
4 for 4. I hope I don't hit this.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
January 29th, 2018 at 4:43:02 AM permalink
So my fake Pick-6 ticket went 5 for 5 and then in the 6th race, my single completely blew the start because of the horse next to him losing the rider. He rallied from last to finish 2nd by a length. Was much the best. The pick-6 paid 15K. That's exactly how you want a bet you didn't make to go.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
February 17th, 2018 at 8:47:54 AM permalink
Random longshot pick of the day:

Fair Grounds Race 7 - Rachel Alexandra Stakes - #5 - She's a Julie - 12/1 morning line.
Keeneone
Keeneone
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
February 18th, 2018 at 6:04:31 PM permalink
Unfortunately, this DQ cost me some coin today in the Stations TwinQ. It happens, I have been on the other end of race changes many times over the years...

https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=02/18/2018&cy=USA&rn=9

https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=GP&raceDate=02/18/2018&cy=USA&rn=12
ahiromu
ahiromu
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 2107
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
March 2nd, 2018 at 6:59:59 PM permalink
Good Magic races tomorrow (Saturday, 3/3). Good Magic was the 5 length underdog victor at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile (Bolt d'oro, the heavy favorite in that race, races next weekend in Cali I think). This horse (Good Magic) was tied with Bolt in the last futures pool in the Kentucky Derby for #1 (8-1) and is a 7-5 favorite tomorrow.

My fear is that this horse that's only raced three times and won once isn't worth below 1-1 to win. Any thoughts?

Edit: My fear is that he'll be overbet tomorrow.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
Keeneone
Keeneone
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
March 2nd, 2018 at 7:11:01 PM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

Good Magic races tomorrow (Saturday, 3/3). Good Magic was the 5 length underdog victor at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile (Bolt d'oro, the heavy favorite in that race, races next weekend in Cali I think). This horse (Good Magic) was tied with Bolt in the last futures pool in the Kentucky Derby for #1 (8-1) and is a 7-5 favorite tomorrow.

My fear is that this horse that's only raced three times and won once isn't worth below 1-1 to win. Any thoughts?

Edit: My fear is that he'll be overbet tomorrow.


I agree. Long layoffs with young lightly raced horses can be difficult to handicap. We have been discussing the Derby and the preps in this thread:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/30154-2018-kentucky-derby-and-triple-crown/
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
March 13th, 2018 at 9:27:06 AM permalink
Many years ago racing writer Barry Meadow made a great comment re comparing the takeout on win bets to exotic bets particularly the daily double; but I believe it applies to other exotic bets as well.

He pointed out that a player actually pays less in takeout when betting the daily double than if he had parlayed the winners of the 1st and 2nd race himself. He also will pay less in breakage.

Some here surely already know this but maybe some don't.

i.e.: at Gulfstream the takeout on win bets is 17% and in the DD it is 20%.

so if he parlayed 2 horses in the 1st and 2nd race, both at 3/1 his first $2 bet would win $6 and his 2nd $8 bet would win $24. his total win would be $30. He paid $.34 takeout on his first $2 bet. He paid $1.36 on his 2nd $8 bet. he paid a total of $1.70 in takeout on his self directed parlay.

I think a $32 payout is probably about right for many $2 DD bets when both horses are 3/1. Maybe a little bit less but that's not really significant.

The takeout on the DD bet is 20% so he paid only $.40 in takeout.

The reason is that the takeout cuts into him twice when he does it himself but only once in the DD.

so exotic bets are not always sucker bets because of the higher takeout as many claim.

I was pretty stunned when I first read this.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
March 13th, 2018 at 3:07:33 PM permalink
I understand what you're saying. But, if you're planning to bet $100 at the track, your takeout is lower betting 10 - $10 win bets than a $100 P4. The daily double is one of my favorite bets.

Also, considering .20 breakage, show bets are about as much of a "sucker bet" as exotics.

The only true sucker bets at the track are the "Jackpot" bets that pay only if one ticket has the right combo. Of course if takeout reaches 30% for trifectas and pick-3s, that is awful as well.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
March 23rd, 2018 at 2:54:36 AM permalink
I like the fave Synchrony on the Turf Saturday at Fairgrounds race 9 in a Grade 2. Morning line 7/2 but that's a joke. Hope the odds aren't too depressing. Bravo is on top. It doesn't get much better than Bravo.

Supposed to be good weather. This guy really closes. I'm not sure how badly post 1 will hurt him. Any thoughts?
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 23, 2018
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
March 23rd, 2018 at 3:20:21 AM permalink
Every time I see this thread pop up I just imagine a really-really long horse. The “never ending horse” thread.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
March 23rd, 2018 at 3:33:25 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Every time I see this thread pop up I just IMAGINE (hallucinate?) a really-really long horse. The “never ending horse” thread.


doesn't RS really stand for Rolling STONED? (insert smiley faced emoji here)


rock on jumping jack flash
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
March 23rd, 2018 at 1:28:37 PM permalink
Winx tonight. Don't miss it
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
March 23rd, 2018 at 4:54:52 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

doesn't RS really stand for Rolling STONED? (insert smiley faced emoji here)


rock on jumping jack flash


At least I’m not drunk. :)

Zing!
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 233
  • Posts: 6700
Joined: May 8, 2015
March 24th, 2018 at 4:27:47 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Winx tonight. Don't miss it




omg what a horse. 24 straight wins and 17 of them were group 1s.

how do you rate her historically?

she has to be one of the greatest ever although I don't know how her speed stats compare with the best boys
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
March 24th, 2018 at 2:37:10 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I like the fave Synchrony on the Turf Saturday at Fairgrounds race 9 in a Grade 2. Morning line 7/2 but that's a joke. Hope the odds aren't too depressing. Bravo is on top. It doesn't get much better than Bravo.

Supposed to be good weather. This guy really closes. I'm not sure how badly post 1 will hurt him. Any thoughts?



Nice pick.

I had Synchrony in my pick 4. But I also had Arklow who finished right behind.
  • Jump to: