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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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September 3rd, 2017 at 10:20:17 PM permalink
Delete, duplicate
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Sep 3, 2017
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onenickelmiracle
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September 3rd, 2017 at 10:20:18 PM permalink
This is a tough trifecta to play:

7,9/1,2/1,2. Usually I assume I'd want to play 7,9/1,2,7,9/1,2,7,9, but the cost gets up there. If I were to think one of two horses would win, logically I should assume one of the two would be second best or third best. I missed out on a $1000 tri a few weeks ago because although I wanted to put a 12/1 horse up to win along with my first choice, I couldn't and didn't to my regret. Today I added another winner with no option underneath for failure, and it worked out for the best. My first choice reared up after the start and couldn't recover. I didn't know exactly why I wanted it this way, suppose it was my doubt surfacing. I'm definitely moving away from boxes, because they're too expensive and shows no respect for my true feelings. If I think a horse will win, I'm better off, playing a ticket that way. At least maybe play 1/2,3/2,3, once or twice, maybe 1/,2,3/2,3,4,5 so if I'm dead on, I win more, than play 1,2,3/1,2,3/1,2,3 just in case. That might make some sense, but then it also means laying out more money, which I might not want to take the risk.
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ahiromu
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September 4th, 2017 at 5:51:47 PM permalink
TVG has a great promotion going on (summer promotion, it's over soon). They give you up to $10 back on losing "win" wagers when your horse shows instead (for select races). I won one (favorite won in Baruch), "lost" two (Prioress/Futurity, but will get $ back), and have the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies coming up in the course of just today. Neat little AP opportunity I casually walked into.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
lilredrooster
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September 5th, 2017 at 4:53:30 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

TVG has a great promotion going on (summer promotion, it's over soon). They give you up to $10 back on losing "win" wagers when your horse shows instead (for select races). I won one (favorite won in Baruch), "lost" two (Prioress/Futurity, but will get $ back), and have the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies coming up in the course of just today. Neat little AP opportunity I casually walked into.



the major legal u.s. books: tvg.com, twinspires.com and expressbet.com usually sweeten their promos about 3 weeks before the ky derby and the breeders cup (at least for new members) which is on nov. 3. i'm going to watch this like a hawk and i will post as we get closer to the breeders cup. unfortunately most of their promos are not available to players who have existing accounts. i have been able to get around that on one of the books by signing up my better half. others won't allow that. but, if for example, you are only signed up with one book you could sign up with the others to get the sweet promo deals. and btw, these promos may have some fine print, but i have found them to be basically hassle free unlike the promos from online overseas books and casinos.
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FinsRule
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September 5th, 2017 at 5:34:27 PM permalink
Three years ago, xpressbet had a $1000 promo. Bet $1000, get $1000. I signed up myself and my wife. Tried to get my parents and brother to do that, but they thought it was a trick. It wasn't.
onenickelmiracle
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September 7th, 2017 at 1:40:18 PM permalink
I like Skyline Drive coming up atKentucky Downs Parx. It has been scratched so many times, every time since I probably put it in my stable. Think it races Friday or Saturday, will be taking a shot on this 15/1 horse, if it runs.

Might bet Sally Oh Sally 9/11 at Mountaineer. It really wanted to run last time, the jockey had to slow it down. Will be a long shot, not sure what improvements will be for it. Perennially fourth, kind of hard to bet on it.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Sep 7, 2017
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sixsisters
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September 7th, 2017 at 3:05:35 PM permalink
Sally Oh Sally last win almost 2 years ago, no finish better than 4th since then. Was hard checked when lacking room at 5/8th pole in 7 furlong race. Was 10th at 2nd call in 5f race before that. 5 furlong on 9/11 Good luck. Have a feeling you will need it as Sally goes
wide on stretch turn.
Keeneone
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September 7th, 2017 at 7:10:09 PM permalink
This is a race I am interested in this weekend: Sat 9/9 - Belmont Race #4
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/KiaranMcLaughlin/MCLAUGHLIN+KIARAN+P/9999/summary.html
You can click the link and click on Ultimate PPs next to Indimaaj to see the race.
I like Indimaaj and Coal Truth in the one turn mile.

---------
It "feels" early to create a 2018 Derby thread. Maybe the thread could start before the Breeder's Cup Futurity (early November) and the first Kentucky Derby futures pool (late November).
sixsisters
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September 7th, 2017 at 8:41:36 PM permalink
With the hottest jockey, I would be worried about Super Sermon getting loose on the front end.
Keeneone
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September 7th, 2017 at 9:50:45 PM permalink
Quote: sixsisters

With the hottest jockey, I would be worried about Super Sermon getting loose on the front end.


No posted workouts since his 1st race causes concern for me.
onenickelmiracle
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September 8th, 2017 at 12:52:42 AM permalink
Quote: sixsisters

Sally Oh Sally last win almost 2 years ago, no finish better than 4th since then. Was hard checked when lacking room at 5/8th pole in 7 furlong race. Was 10th at 2nd call in 5f race before that. 5 furlong on 9/11 Good luck. Have a feeling you will need it as Sally goes
wide on stretch turn.

I know that's crazy. Probably won't bet on her. Best I can hope is probably third, no too good way to bet on that. Either a show bet or a trifecta would be foolish.
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Keeneone
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September 14th, 2017 at 6:09:44 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Sat 9/9 - Belmont Race #4

Quote: sixsisters

With the hottest jockey, I would be worried about Super Sermon getting loose on the front end.

Super Sermon won with a pressing trip. With the 2 early scratches I did not wager. I look forward to Coal Truth's and Indimaaj's next entries....
--------

I will mention a few more 2 year old races with runners I am watching this weekend for those interested.

Sat 9/16
Belmont race 3 - I find these races (unraced 2yo MSW) difficult to handicap but fun to watch. Talented field (particularly the #'s 1,2,3,4)
pps(click on Prolific's ultimate pps link): http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/GODOLPHIN/9999/summary.html

Churchill race 1 - #3 - Arrival - Love him in this spot.
pps(click on Arrival's ultimate pps link): http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/MarkCasse/CASSE+MARK/9999/summary.html

Churchill race 4 - #11 Gambit - Really like him in this race.
pps(click on Bravazo's ultimate pps link): http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/CalumetFarm/CALUMET+FARM/9999/summary.html

GLTA
ontariodealer
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onenickelmiracle
September 14th, 2017 at 9:28:10 PM permalink
woodbine Saturday...mandatory payout on hi five
get second you pig
ontariodealer
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Keeneone
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September 18th, 2017 at 10:14:26 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone


Sat 9/16
Belmont race 3 - I find these races (unraced 2yo MSW) difficult to handicap but fun to watch. Talented field (particularly the #'s 1,2,3,4)
pps(click on Prolific's ultimate pps link): http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/GODOLPHIN/9999/summary.html

Churchill race 1 - #3 - Arrival - Love him in this spot.
pps(click on Arrival's ultimate pps link): http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/MarkCasse/CASSE+MARK/9999/summary.html

Churchill race 4 - #11 Gambit - Really like him in this race.
pps(click on Bravazo's ultimate pps link): http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/CalumetFarm/CALUMET+FARM/9999/summary.html

GLTA


Belmont race 3 - Good race, looking forward to future entries for some of these runners.
Churchill race 1 - Arrival finished a ho hum 3rd. Was expecting much more from this one.
Churchill race 4 - Gambit scratched (maybe because his post...)
---------

Pick of the weekend:
Sat 9/23 - Parx race 5: #11 Haul Anchor - makes lots of sense in this one and will probably be hammered...
GLTA

Paging DD, are you out there?
onenickelmiracle
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September 18th, 2017 at 10:21:56 PM permalink
I'm cutting down on my betting, I've definitely not been making good bets. It's fun watching races and being with the people, but I'm not making bets just to make bets. I appreciate all the people in the thread and their contributions, haven't even watched many races or thought about any. The Pennsylvania derby I might be interested in, might want to play that one, now I think about it.
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Keeneone
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September 19th, 2017 at 11:34:00 AM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

woodbine Saturday...mandatory payout on hi five


Just looked at the results. The 5th place runner (@ 68-1) likely helped the payout.

20 CENT Super High Five Jackpot (5-2-10-1-3) Paid
$4,319.61 ; Super High Five Jackpot Pool $3,284,452

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=WO&CTY=CAN&DATE=20170916&RN=13
----------

I have questions.
How does a track like Woodbine handle the conversion of CAD to USD?
At the track are all the payouts displayed in CAD?
I imagine they can have the international broadcast display whatever currency they want/need.
ontariodealer
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September 19th, 2017 at 3:07:22 PM permalink
its done in can dollars....they crush us on high takeout so a lot of us don't play woodbine......we had a group and thru over 600 bucks at the hi5 and hit it twice.....first time I bet wb in over two years
get second you pig
Keeneone
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September 20th, 2017 at 3:54:01 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

its done in can dollars....they crush us on high takeout so a lot of us don't play woodbine......we had a group and thru over 600 bucks at the hi5 and hit it twice.....first time I bet wb in over two years


Thanks. Nice hits on the High 5. Congrats.
I will occasionally play WB's late wednesday night card when available. Usually small amounts on the pick 5 and both pick 4's. I enjoy wagering on the all weather tracks and really miss the Poly @ Keeneland.
ontariodealer
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September 20th, 2017 at 4:31:02 PM permalink
I don't play wb because of the poly, I don't play them because of their policies......my fave indiana downs
get second you pig
lilredrooster
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September 22nd, 2017 at 2:40:11 AM permalink
excuse me if i get real literary for a minute, but i thought you guys might enjoy this short story about horse racing called "My Old Man" by Ernest Hemingway published in 1923. the narrator's old man is a jockey. i got a big, big kick out of it.

http://cafelitt.ca/down/My%20old%20man.pdf
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onenickelmiracle
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September 24th, 2017 at 10:01:43 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I like Skyline Drive coming up atKentucky Downs Parx. It has been scratched so many times, every time since I probably put it in my stable. Think it races Friday or Saturday, will be taking a shot on this 15/1 horse, if it runs.

Might bet Sally Oh Sally 9/11 at Mountaineer. It really wanted to run last time, the jockey had to slow it down. Will be a long shot, not sure what improvements will be for it. Perennially fourth, kind of hard to bet on it.

Sally Oh Sally finished first by a nose at Mountaineer September 24th, off at 40/1. Wasn't even thinking about any races today, didn't make any bets.
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Keeneone
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September 25th, 2017 at 9:30:06 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Pick of the weekend:
Sat 9/23 - Parx race 5: #11 Haul Anchor - makes lots of sense in this one and will probably be hammered...

Haul Anchor did not haul a** and finished a distant 5th as the favorite. I really need to work on my handicapping skills. Looking forward to Keeneland and patiently waiting for Personal Time...


Quote: onenickelmiracle

Sally Oh Sally finished first by a nose at Mountaineer September 24th, off at 40/1. Wasn't even thinking about any races today, didn't make any bets.


Wow. Sorry you missed making a wager.
ahiromu
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September 29th, 2017 at 12:49:52 PM permalink
Someone's jumping off a bridge...



Belmont race 5, 9/29. Races 1-4 had $30k +/- $10k in the show pool.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
Johnzimbo
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September 29th, 2017 at 2:33:07 PM permalink
Five weeks out from the Breeder's Cup so some good prep races tomorrow. Think I'll hit Lone Star Park and make some wagers. I bet small but if I hit any winners that advance to the BC I'll parlay my winnings from tomorrow and hope they win again on BC day
Keeneone
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October 4th, 2017 at 4:28:10 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

Five weeks out from the Breeder's Cup so some good prep races tomorrow. Think I'll hit Lone Star Park and make some wagers. I bet small but if I hit any winners that advance to the BC I'll parlay my winnings from tomorrow and hope they win again on BC day


How was the day @ LSP?
----------


Loads of top quality racing to look forward to this weekend. 2 year olds have the Champagne @ Belmont and the Breeder's Futurity @ Keeneland on Saturday. I am very pleased to finally see a particular horse entered for his first start @ Belmont.

Sat Oct 6th - Belmont race #6 - 7 Furlongs

#9 - Personal Time
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/SpendThrift/MALIBU+MOON/1997/summary.html
Click on Personal Time's Ultimate pps


Why am I am interested in seeing this runner's career begin?
He is a full brother to Orb (2013 KD winner)
lilredrooster
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October 6th, 2017 at 10:41:05 AM permalink
I like Ransom the Moon in Santa Anita's Grade 1 Sprint Championship on Saturday race #6. He's a strong closer in a small field and shouldn't get blocked. Roy H was made the morning line favorite and Ransom beat him last time out. The bettors might reverse that and make Ransom the chalk.
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Keeneone
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October 6th, 2017 at 4:17:07 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I like Ransom the Moon in Santa Anita's Grade 1 Sprint Championship on Saturday race #6. He's a strong closer in a small field and shouldn't get blocked. Roy H was made the morning line favorite and Ransom beat him last time out. The bettors might reverse that and make Ransom the chalk.


After glancing at the pps, I'am not sure who will be on the lead. I would guess American Anthem will go to the front. Even for a Baffert trainee, the 3 bullet SA workouts (in a row) stand out. Here are the pps for those interested in following along:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/SpendThrift/MALIBU+MOON/1997/summary.html
Click on Ransom's ultimate pps.
----------

In other news, Wynn sportsbook had the sheet for Kentucky Derby futures. Must have come out in the last week or so. I made a few early picks. Here are the top 5 horses by listed odds:

1) Bolt D'oro - 14/1 (Undefeated 3for3, recently won @ SA, what a pedigree on this one)
2) Honorable Treasure - 30/1 (Running @ Belmont 10/7)
3) Solomini - 35/1 (Ran recently @ SA finishing 2nd to #1)
4) Good Magic - 40/1 (Still a maiden and running @ Belmont 10/7)
St Patrick's Day - 40/1 (Won recently @ SA, but no listed works in a month)
The Tabulator - 40/1 (Undefeated 3for3, recently won @ Churchill, and in training since)
Sporting Chance - 40/1 (this one is currently injured AFAIK)
lilredrooster
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October 7th, 2017 at 1:24:15 AM permalink
thanks for the PPs K - very generous of you
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ahiromu
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October 7th, 2017 at 8:50:06 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I like Ransom the Moon in Santa Anita's Grade 1 Sprint Championship on Saturday race #6. He's a strong closer in a small field and shouldn't get blocked. Roy H was made the morning line favorite and Ransom beat him last time out. The bettors might reverse that and make Ransom the chalk.



I just watched the last stakes race that ended in 1. Ransom 2. Roy (6f, 7/29/17).

There was a stray horse that forced Roy H to go 5-6w on the final turn (when he absolutely wouldn't have needed to otherwise) and he ended out losing by a length while continually gaining on Ransom at the end. Ransom had a perfect lane. Keep that in mind before you go in heavy on Ransom.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
lilredrooster
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October 7th, 2017 at 10:44:38 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

I just watched the last stakes race that ended in 1. Ransom 2. Roy (6f, 7/29/17).

There was a stray horse that forced Roy H to go 5-6w on the final turn (when he absolutely wouldn't have needed to otherwise) and he ended out losing by a length while continually gaining on Ransom at the end. Ransom had a perfect lane. Keep that in mind before you go in heavy on Ransom.



I agree, I watched the replay also. It's very close between those 2 horses. And Giant Expectations just had a big improve when shortened. It's definitely not a race to take out a 2nd mortgage on. The only thing qualifying thing I will say about Roy H is that many are very impressed with his big race and figure at Belmont in the True North stakes is that it looks like the speed collapsed and gave him an easy set up. I also note that 3 races back at Santa Anita which he won at 6.5 furlongs they clocked him in 6 at 107.3. On 2nd thought I don't think I want to bet against this horse. Maybe I'll just watch, I'm not sure.


after thinking about that 107.3 6 furlong split Roy H did 3 races back (now 4 races back) at Santa Anita I reconsidered because that is so very impressive and I ate the chalk and bet him to place, an admittedly wimpy bet. he came with a 41/1 shot so my place payout got juiced up to 1/2 or $3.00. If he had come with American Anthem, the 2nd favorite the place payout probably would have been $2.40. So, I'm a happy, wimpy camper who is okay with my little paydays and never dreams about gigantic scores.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 7, 2017
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ahiromu
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October 7th, 2017 at 4:03:46 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I agree, I watched the replay also. It's very close between those 2 horses. And Giant Expectations just had a big improve when shortened. It's definitely not a race to take out a 2nd mortgage on. The only thing qualifying thing I will say about Roy H is that many are very impressed with his big race and figure at Belmont in the True North stakes is that it looks like the speed collapsed and gave him an easy set up. I also note that 3 races back at Santa Anita which he won at 6.5 furlongs they clocked him in 6 at 107.3. On 2nd thought I don't think I want to bet against this horse. Maybe I'll just watch, I'm not sure.


after thinking about that 107.3 6 furlong split Roy H did 3 races back (now 4 races back) at Santa Anita I reconsidered because that is so very impressive and I ate the chalk and bet him to place, an admittedly wimpy bet. he came with a 41/1 shot so my place payout got juiced up to 1/2 or $3.00. If he had come with American Anthem, the 2nd favorite the place payout probably would have been $2.40. So, I'm a happy, wimpy camper who is okay with my little paydays and never dreams about gigantic scores.



Thanks for that... reverse tip? Is that what we can call it? I ended out going reasonably big on Roy, so it all worked out. Actually, it tipped the scale on my Twinspires account and I was able to finish the playthrough requirement in the black, ended up +$156 off of $3000 wagered.

It was closer than I would have hoped, but yeah, at least we both came out winners. I didn't follow Ransom's race too closely, but he just didn't seem to have it in him.

Edit: (Meant that first comment in a non-snotty way, sorry if it came off that way)
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
Keeneone
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October 9th, 2017 at 8:41:37 PM permalink
Champagne @ Belmont won by Firenze Fire (100/1 @ Wynn before the race)
Breeder's Futurity @ Keeneland won by Free Drop Billy (50/1 @ Wynn before the race)

Sat Oct 6th - Belmont race #6 - 7 Furlongs
#10 - Personal Time finished sixth. Outrun early with little speed or interest, but did finish up ok. Will keep an eye out for his next start. While PT did little in his first start, the winner #2 - Montauk is getting a little buzz for his debut romp. He was 100/1 @ Wynn before the race. If you want to see the race select Race 6:
https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/replays?trackID=2&year=2017&date=2017-10-07&raceNum=6&pov=pan
coilman
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October 11th, 2017 at 10:15:05 PM permalink
Saturday night MOHAWK HARNESS RACING will have a must pay pool which stands at just under a MILLION right now and should head towards $3 million when the windows close

more info here

http://standardbredcanada.ca/notices/10-10-17/jackpot-hi-5-mandatory-payout-saturday.html#.Wd1aY4zT6tg.facebook
lilredrooster
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October 14th, 2017 at 1:32:47 AM permalink
I think this free picks guy from Santa Anita, Jeff Siegel, is pretty good. He usually names 1, 2 or 3 horses in a race which he recommends for the rolling exotics. I don't play the rollings or bet his picks but a couple of times he has pointed some things out that I missed. I've tracked him and seen him hit some decent paying doubles. I haven't tracked his pick 3s closely. These are his picks for today:

http://www.santaanita.com/horse-racing/handicapping/
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
ahiromu
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October 16th, 2017 at 10:16:19 AM permalink
tl;dr Online horse betting is a great way to learn the sport, but isn't really the "free money" that you can find with online casinos. Use DRF to get good PP's and try to beat the Twinspires rollover requirement.



With the Breeder's Cup coming, I thought I'd give a mini review of horse betting online. The 15-18% takeout on non-exotics is pretty tough to beat and even if you're good at handicapping, the pari-mutuel nature of the sport means that the most obvious races will have their payout adjusted accordingly. One way you can get around it for a short time is by taking advantage of new account bonuses.

TVG - Best interface, best streams, worst rolling offers, only $100 bonus currently. Small if any rollover; offers come in the form of "Money back specials" - if your $10 win bet gets 2nd or 3rd place, you get your money back.

Twinspires - Crappy interface, crappy streams, best rolling offers. $500 bonus total, $100 per $500 bet. Wager $2500, get $500 cash (basically offsets the takeout). Twinspires is great. They currently have an October offer of $5 back per $100 bet on the weekdays. Woodbine gives $5 per $100 bet on Wednesdays too and they all stack*. You can effectively get back 30% if you bet all $2500 at Woodbine. They had a weekend of six races where they would add $50 to a winning $50 win bet placed on big races - the bonus coming around the time of the Breeder's Cup.

Xpressbet - I opened a drfbets account which disallows me from getting a bonus from Xpressbet. Their current offer is $10 back for $100 bet, up to $500 back. A 10% rebate. Their $100 offer is basically just a 20% rebate. Pretty stingy.

DRFbets - Crappy interface, decent video. Offer is $300 total, (in 3 consecutive months) $100 wagered gets $100 cash, said cash needs to be rolled over once* before withdrawal. 50% rebate. Plus, you can buy DRF PP data and get it refunded for a $5 wager. Other sites will give you some kind of PP data and refund it with a wager, but I find the DRF stuff to be the easiest to read. So like, you can get DRF pp data on TVG, but they pay cash for it so you can't get it refunded. But TVG offers another brand of PP data that they refund.

Rewards: Not worth mentioning if you're less than $5k wagered per month. The smaller/specialty sites have some good deals, so I hear.

Some states disallow horse wagering online and others require wagering interfaces to be licensed, so the latter are restricted to only the big boys (TVG, Xpressbet, Twinspires). This includes my state. If you're outside of one of these states, you have access to a ton of smaller joints and their bonuses. Dayatthetrack gives 25% up to $400. A couple others offered $250.

#Edit - List of states is stolen from a site and is constantly changing and varies by site. It fits my current situation, that's all I can guarantee. See Drawingdead below.

States that disallow horse betting online: Alaska, Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, US Virgin Islands and Washington D.C..

States that have a commie license regulation about wagering interfaces: California, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, North Dakota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Virginia, Washington.

* 80% sure.
Last edited by: ahiromu on Oct 16, 2017
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lilredrooster
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October 16th, 2017 at 10:41:51 AM permalink
the above post on bonuses was very informative and useful. thank you for that ahiromu.

my only comment is about the best way to reach the bonus levels especially for those new to handicapping.

unless it your style to make a lot of bets and that is what you are comfortable doing then imho the best way to quickly qualify for the bonuses is to limit your bets to your very best bets and on those bets increase the size of the wagers. that is better imho then making a lot more bets than you normally would in order to qualify for the bonuses. of course, you don't want to make bets that are so large that you are uncomfortable with them.

this comment is mostly directed to those who prefer win, place, and show wagering. it is less useful to those who prefer the exotics, as those types of bettors tend to make many more bets anyway, risking many small bets in search of large payouts

several times in the past, when the bonus structure might have been a little different i made just one bet, usually to place, to qualify for a bonus. so, if you had to bet $200 to get $200 then i made just one bet of $200. reading the above post, it looks like most of the main sites mostly now use different kinds of bonuses than that. but some may still use that method for qualifying.

it's very obvious that the intent of the race books offering these bonuses is (other than to just sign players up) to influence a player to bet more or more often than he might normally do. so, obviously, cautiousness is advisable.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 16, 2017
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ahiromu
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October 16th, 2017 at 12:26:17 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

several times in the past, when the bonus structure might have been a little different i made just one bet, usually to place, to qualify for a bonus. so, if you had to bet $200 to get $200 then i made just one bet of $200. reading the above post, it looks like most of the main sites mostly now use different kinds of bonuses than that. but some may still use that method for qualifying.



Many sites are willing to just throw $100 at you for a limited amount of play, but $100 isn't worth it for me to open an account. It may be enough for someone trying out. To get more than $100 tends to require that you jump through hoops/expose more than you should.

Definitely true about getting you to bet more than you're comfortable with.

Deposits and withdrawals have been super easy too. Since it's 100% legal, just connect your bank account and there you go. Obviously not the best for compulsive gamblers though.
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DrawingDead
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October 16th, 2017 at 12:55:11 PM permalink
IN RE: States allowed/not lists

Apologies in advance, this'll get long winded. But I think it is best if I'm not abrupt and that I get into some detail to show some of the shadings and circumstances that can be involved.

Quote: lilredrooster

the above post on bonuses was very informative and useful. thank you for that ahiromu

+1 to that, as the whippersnappers say nowadays.

Quote: ahiromu

...[lots of helpful bonus examples, with very useful level of detail for what's commonly involved, and a list of states]...

The list of "states that disallow horse [race] betting online" is wrong, or in some cases perhaps arguably kinda sorta right in a very technical sense but unintentionally significantly misleading for anyone interested in doing it. Just a caution for using the info; not intended to criticize. It is sure a whole lot closer to accurate and much more lucid and useful than so much of the idiotic insane raving and fantasy weaving and babbling drool that often notoriously fills this forum.

But, just a few examples that stood out at a first quick glance (there are most likely others): It is not allowed in Missouri, which wasn't listed. I don't think MO has ever allowed it, so far as I'm aware in the decades I've been following this business. In Arizona, which was listed as "disallow(ing)" there was indeed a period of several years (roughly about 2008-2013 +/- IIRC) in which it wasn't allowed, until that was changed again by an act of that state's legislature with the consent of the state's recognized horseman's associations (as required by federal law) a few years ago (in about May 2014). So now AZ residents definitely can and do wager with many (but not all) of the online ADW (advance deposit wagering) sites (including TwinSpires for example). But in Arizona you have to place your wagers by phone (using a site's toll-free #) instead of through the app or browser, so that it isn't technically "internet betting." But you can do everything else online before and after the point of saying "$200 to win on #3 in the 5th at Septic Downs, please." Which you must either actually speak, or else push some buttons on a phone handset to use an automated wagering menu, instead of tap on a keyboard & click. it is generally allowed in Connecticut, with some restrictions that I haven't kept up to date on, etc, etc, and others...

...but my point was not to rag on you or your post. Or to redo it. It is just to caution that ANY handy list that anyone finds floating around is most likely not going to be currently accurate, because it is subject to constantly changing regulation and statutes of more than 50 individual US states, districts, and territories. And, some of the online race wagering companies will choose to apply them differently from one another, and differently over time, for their own internal reasons of convenience and cost and software compatibility. And even lists on wagering sites themselves are not up to date on what they actually do. I know that isn't going to be the most useful thing to folks, but it is what it is.

That's why I got a little detailed with the Arizona example. Some sites (TwinSpires for example) accommodate the requirement that wagers from customers there must be confirmed by using a phone in some way, shape, or manner, while some others (NYRA Bets for example) aren't set up for that and don't choose to do so for that market, at least for now, so they just treat it as a 'not allowed' state. There are other examples similar to that. Including the fact that they changed from allowing, to not, and back but with peculiarities. And, last I looked some of the sites that ARE taking wagers from that state had it still listed as not allowed long after they started or resumed doing business with customers there.

So, for most people who don't choose to constantly follow this stuff about this business in detail, it is necessary to contact the individual companies to see if you can open an account, using even that company's own list as only a guide, not a definitive answer. And don't generalize that one wagering company's response will hold true for others, even if the customer service worker on the phone said something like "sorry but I see it isn't allowed." He/she may be at the mercy of some instructions that could be different with someone else, even with everyone acting in good faith to the best of their understanding.
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ahiromu
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October 16th, 2017 at 1:03:34 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: ahiromu

...[lots of helpful bonus examples, with very useful level of detail for what's commonly involved, and a list of states]...

The list of "states that disallow horse [race] betting online" is wrong, or in some cases perhaps arguably kinda sorta right in a very technical sense but unintentionally completely misleading for anyone interested in doing it. Just a caution for using the info; not intended to criticize. It is sure a whole lot closer to accurate and much more lucid and useful than so much of the idiotic insane raving and fantasy weaving and babbling drool that often notoriously fills this forum.



Guilty. I just stole a list that I found on dayatthetrack. A few of the states that I listed matched what I had seen before and I went with it. Noted above now.
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DrawingDead
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October 16th, 2017 at 2:01:50 PM permalink
I should mention one other example, because it is especially relevant for some people on this site: Nevada. Shame on me for overlooking it right from the get-go.

The list you shared is correct in the sense that Nevada does not choose to allow participation in the national ADW online race wagering operations set up under the federal Interstate Horse Racing and Wagering Act. So all of the 'normal' outfits will say "no you can't" to a Nevada resident. But now, just within the last year or so, there IS online parimutual race wagering directly into the track pools, just like the states that DO allow TwinSpires and Xpressbet and TVG and etc. The difference is that in Nevada it can ONLY be done by a NV licensed casino.

So, a number of brick and mortar Nevada casinos (for ex. Boyd Gaming properties @ Orleans, Gold Coast, Sam's Town, Suncoast, etc) will now open an account which can be used for race wagering (which is completely separate from any mobile sports betting application) through an app on a mobile device. There are some differences from all the others operating in states participating in the federally authorized arrangements. Unlike the national ADW business, for these NV casino mobile wagering operations, though documentation of your identity is required it doesn't matter what state someone resides in, but unlike the 'normal' national operations the account must be opened in-person and the funding to start the account must be done at their brick & mortar casino, and the geolocation function built into the app must be able to verify compliance with a requirement that you must be physically somewhere inside Nevada at the moment you place the wager, but not necessarily inside any casino, or even indoors for that matter.

They do that last bit about being in Nevada at that moment so they don't get into trouble for doing interstate business that would fall under the federal act that everybody else operates with. And of course this is how the state's regulators have gone about trying to preserve a monopoly on the local business for NV casinos.
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ahiromu
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October 16th, 2017 at 3:09:31 PM permalink
What really bugged me was that I was banking on all of these third party sites to continue the hobby. I found some good bonuses, tried signing up, then found out that I can't wager online. The whole online aspect is ruined if you're forced to call in.

I could handle the Nevada way. Do they offer decent rebates? I'm just shocked at how poor all of the rewards programs are for these sites. It smells of collusion. That's why I'm so psyched about 5% back from Twinspires.
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DrawingDead
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October 16th, 2017 at 5:03:22 PM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

Do they offer decent rebates?

No.

At least not that I've seen so far. This is the bonus I got upon opening an account at a Boyd racebook: "Thanks, here's your receipt, Sir. Next!" Could change, because while mobile wagering with casino books has been around for a while now for house banked sports (including racing futures treated as sports), and some of those do have bonuses from time to time, it is still fairly new in Nevada for racing (other than futures bets). But, I think there may be some potential complications about that involving the master contract the Nevada books have with the tracks, after some of the tracks got pissy about some "rebates" a while back.
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lilredrooster
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October 19th, 2017 at 3:00:44 AM permalink
I'm curious as to what is the opinion of you guys about getting an edge based on track bias.

Many years ago, I can't exactly remember when, many racing scribes were advocating it as a great tool.

You almost never hear anybody talking about it any more. Of course, it doesn't exist on synthetic surfaces but that doesn't explain it away.

Do you think that better groundskeeping reduced the opportunities available?

Or do you think that it was vastly overrated as a strategy and people came to realize that?

Or do you think there is a different reason you almost never hear about it any more?

What is your opinion?
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FinsRule
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October 19th, 2017 at 4:20:05 AM permalink
The bonus I did was $1000 to get $1000 at xpressbet. I think it was 3 years ago. They'll never do that again. They allowed show wagering, which made it super easy.

The sign up bonuses now are crap. Twinspires has gotten a lot worse. All of their regular bonuses are just about betting $100 or $250 on certain races, and getting a 1-3% rebate. Xpressbet has much better bonuses, and their regular rewards system is better. I watch TVG a lot and as soon as they give a signup bonus worth signing up for, I'll try them out. As Ahirmou mentioned, I don't think I can get a drfbets bonus because they are associated with xpressbet.

Actually, my biggest problems with ADW is that you cannot cash out your deposit amount for about 4-5 days. So let's say I deposit $48. I make two bets for the weekend. A pick-3 for $24 and a trifecta for $24. The pick-3 loses, the trifecta hits for $60. I can cash out $12 right away. The $48 is trapped in there for 5 days. Then I end up losing the $48 on dumb bets. So sometimes, I actually prefer driving 8 minutes to the OTB if I'm making $100 or more in bets for the day. Then if I end up losing $20, I actually get the $80 back right away.

I prefer twinspires interface slightly more than xpressbet, but I think either is fine for a new person starting out.
FinsRule
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October 19th, 2017 at 4:30:04 AM permalink
Track bias. What I keep hearing from experts is you have to figure out if the bias is a speed bias, or an inside rail bias. It turned out on Derby day that it was an inside rail bias.

I think you don't hear about it because the tracks play similarly from day to day. So if speed is winning at Aqueduct, it keeps winning. But then the odds reflect that and the jockeys ride to it.

It seems that weather affects the track bias the most. But really you're just guessing how the track is going to play with changing weather.

I guess my summary is that I think track bias is overrated, but if you are frequenting a track every day, you might be able to pick up on some small things. Like, I frequent Arlington Park. There is a big inside rail bias there. But the wind affects the speed bias. If the wind is blowing to the finish line, the speed holds. Why isn't it easy to win there then? Because the horses are a bunch of 5K and 10K claimers with no form. Whichever horse is feeling good that day is going to get to the rail and win.

So, you need to know the track inside and out. Have horses with reliable form. Know how weather affects it. Those scenarios happen very rarely, and usually it's people making false conclusions after 2 races or people who after the day is over can assign a bias to something.
lilredrooster
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October 19th, 2017 at 5:59:34 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Why isn't it easy to win there then? Because the horses are a bunch of 5K and 10K claimers with no form.



I definitely agree with that. several years ago I started betting only on the higher grade races. my personal performance improved a lot. of course, there are frustrations there too. i guess if there weren't most likely winners would all go off at 2/5.
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Keeneone
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October 19th, 2017 at 4:24:43 PM permalink
It has been a quiet couple of weeks for me betting the horses. I did take a stab @ Keeneland's pick 6 yesterday with the large carryovers. Caught 4 winners out of 6 races (on a $16 dollar ticket) and won nothing obviously. Also on Wednesday evening I watched a few random races @ Woodbine and saw an interesting runner in Race 3 - Grace and Dignity (2yo filly - ON bred by Animal Kingdom)


Wow, that was some effort. Sub 1:09 for 6 panels. I added her to my barn to see when she will run again.

Breeder's Cup in 2 weeks @ Del Mar...
DrawingDead
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October 19th, 2017 at 5:22:19 PM permalink
RE: Grace And Dignity

Thanks for posting that. There's already been enough buzz that I'd heard something about her even though I didn't see the race & wasn't following anything on that Woodbine card that day. Looking for 'comps' on the card, nothing got 6f in anything very close to her 1:08.77, in any company restricted or open, of any age or either sex, either at the distance or as a fractional split in other sprints. Nearest thing was a 1:09.2 final in Race #4 at 6f in open company for fully mature experienced males 3y/o+ @ Claiming $20k.

Animal Kingdom over a Smart Strike mare = me likey. Every reason to think she would most likely continue to develop with maturity and still be improving well into her 3 year old season and beyond, and tend to have the inherited physiology to potentially carry her speed for a significant distance of ground. Only cause for pause for me is that it is an especially good pedigree for a synthetic surface, as well as fine for turf, so her form on something like a hard packed and facile dirt track is a question that would remain to be answered, if she's asked to do that.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/animal-kingdom-filly-streaks-to-rising-stardom-at-woodbine/
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 19, 2017
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ahiromu
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October 19th, 2017 at 6:53:30 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

RE: Grace And Dignity



Saw this and agree with the above. Impressed me. The 1/4 time of 22.42 might seem a tad low to keep up with the big girls, but she stumbled a bit out of the gate (or was at least slower than the rest). Something to work on, wouldn't be surprised to see sub 1:08 on a better day. That race was the definition of outclass, gaining or holding at every point.

http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Woodbine/Racing/Pages/TheRaceResults.aspx
> Race 3 (also adjust date to 10/18)
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