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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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August 14th, 2017 at 8:18:04 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

She wins, and the longest shot on the board finishes 2nd.

She looked good, wish I didn't bet against her in the handicapping contest. I did play 1-6 ex box, but not the show bets.

Liked the 5 in race 9, and race 1, the six. I think Island Girl had won her last race, but was disqualified, hoped she would have pulled it off. Off the green, it raced last year at Mountaineer on turf, came in second and didn't go back to the grass. It was 58/1 in a 5 horse race and paid $10 to place, thought it was going to be much more and it was a surprise disappointment. Off the green did almost win, that was quite a close, but not good enough.
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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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August 14th, 2017 at 8:30:28 PM permalink
That's always blowing my mind horses like the 5 getting into the money such as was the case in race 8. Seems if the other horses can't win, they quit and fizzle. It's hard for me to grasp how a horse just gives up or just empties. It's like when you bet, try doing two reasoned things and one random dumb thing. It's funny how sometimes it seems a horse can't win, but it has nothing to do with otherwise hitting the board.
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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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August 15th, 2017 at 4:16:14 PM permalink
Mountaineer race 2, $23000 show bet on the 2, $5000 almost on the 2, $4000 place, on the 2 Siteenparksidelane in an 8 horse field.
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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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August 15th, 2017 at 4:39:16 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Mountaineer race 2, $23000 show bet on the 2, $5000 almost on the 2, $4000 place, on the 2 Siteenparksidelane in an 8 horse field.

He must have been scratched.
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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 16th, 2017 at 2:10:58 AM permalink
arrogate is running again saturday in the pacific classic at del mar. even money on the morning line. so tell me. if you guys had to bet on this race would you bet with him or against him? for me it would definitely be against. i don't buy baffert's explanation. or course, i acknowledge i could be wrong. here's the field and odds:

1. Royal Albert Hall, Corey Nakatani, 30-1

2. Collected, Martin Garcia, 5-2

3. Accelerate, Victor Espinoza, 3-1

4. Sorry Erik, Kent Desormeaux, 30-1

5. Hard Aces, Santiago Gonzalez, 20-1

6. Donworth, Mario Gutierrez, 15-1

7. Curlin Road, Flavien Prat, 20-1

8. Arrogate, Mike Smith, even-money

Note -- The Pacific Classic will be televised live by NBCSN from 5-6 p.m.

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20170815/arrogate-is-the-favorite-for-pacific-classic-at-del-mar
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FinsRule
FinsRule
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August 16th, 2017 at 4:07:14 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

That's always blowing my mind horses like the 5 getting into the money such as was the case in race 8. Seems if the other horses can't win, they quit and fizzle. It's hard for me to grasp how a horse just gives up or just empties. It's like when you bet, try doing two reasoned things and one random dumb thing. It's funny how sometimes it seems a horse can't win, but it has nothing to do with otherwise hitting the board.



Here's a story of the horse I own a small percentage of. She won her first race. Beaten 3/4 of a length in her 2nd race when she bled. On lasix for her 3rd race, she was off at odds on. She was leading the whole way, traveling comfortably, and then just stopped in the stretch to finish last. The person standing next to me yelled "she's a quitter!" I flipped out on him for saying such a rude thing in the owner's area.

Anyway, a few days later we find out she has a hairline fracture.

I've owned parts of 4 horses, and I think it's made me a better handicapper. Because, it's driven home the fact that they are animals, and you can't the whole story by just looking at the page, or even by looking at them in person.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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August 16th, 2017 at 4:10:44 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

arrogate is running again saturday in the pacific classic at del mar. even money on the morning line. so tell me. if you guys had to bet on this race would you bet with him or against him? for me it would definitely be against. i don't buy baffert's explanation. or course, i acknowledge i could be wrong. here's the field and odds:

1. Royal Albert Hall, Corey Nakatani, 30-1

2. Collected, Martin Garcia, 5-2

3. Accelerate, Victor Espinoza, 3-1

4. Sorry Erik, Kent Desormeaux, 30-1

5. Hard Aces, Santiago Gonzalez, 20-1

6. Donworth, Mario Gutierrez, 15-1

7. Curlin Road, Flavien Prat, 20-1

8. Arrogate, Mike Smith, even-money

Note -- The Pacific Classic will be televised live by NBCSN from 5-6 p.m.

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20170815/arrogate-is-the-favorite-for-pacific-classic-at-del-mar



I'd probably still single to Arrogate in the pick-4. And if you gave me $100 to make a win bet at those odds, I'd also bet it on Arrogate. Now if he is bet down to 2-5 or something, then I'd have to bet on Collected.

If I do bet, it would be something like a pick-4, and not a single bet on this race. This is a stay away race for sure.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 16th, 2017 at 8:24:54 AM permalink
Fin: what is your opinion of betting against the jumpers' horse in the win pool if its odds are 1/9 or less? the downside: you won't win as much when you win because in a field of 7 you guarantee yourself 5 losers instead of 3 in the show pool. and only one winner instead of 3 when you do win. the upside is that you still win if the jumpers' horse gets 2nd or 3rd.

yay or nay?
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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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August 16th, 2017 at 9:00:31 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Fin: what is your opinion of betting against the jumpers' horse in the win pool if its odds are 1/9 or less? the downside: you won't win as much when you win because in a field of 7 you guarantee yourself 5 losers instead of 3 in the show pool. and only one winner instead of 3 when you do win. the upside is that you still win if the jumpers' horse gets 2nd or 3rd.

yay or nay?

It sure is tempting. I was at home yesterday, the Pacific Classic draw show interrupted the Mountaineer race, and what they had shown was very small and hard to read. However pretty sure every horse was 20/1 or greater, most 40/1. It's easier for a horse to not win, than for a horse to not at least show. You can bet every horse to win or you can bet more on a few, or some hybrid approach. I'd say, depends on the race, track, etc. As a rule, I'd probably guess with the odds so crazy, you have to go for the win more often than not.

Whoever bet yesterday was stupid jumping on the show bet, but also the win and place pool. They gained nothing on the two extra bets but risk as far as I could tell.
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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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August 16th, 2017 at 9:05:40 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

arrogate is running again saturday in the pacific classic at del mar. even money on the morning line. so tell me. if you guys had to bet on this race would you bet with him or against him? for me it would definitely be against. i don't buy baffert's explanation. or course, i acknowledge i could be wrong. here's the field and odds:

1. Royal Albert Hall, Corey Nakatani, 30-1

2. Collected, Martin Garcia, 5-2

3. Accelerate, Victor Espinoza, 3-1

4. Sorry Erik, Kent Desormeaux, 30-1

5. Hard Aces, Santiago Gonzalez, 20-1

6. Donworth, Mario Gutierrez, 15-1

7. Curlin Road, Flavien Prat, 20-1

8. Arrogate, Mike Smith, even-money

Note -- The Pacific Classic will be televised live by NBCSN from 5-6 p.m.

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20170815/arrogate-is-the-favorite-for-pacific-classic-at-del-mar

Does seem vulnerable after the last race, not really sure. The latest news, Mike Smith though having to break before the turn was what got him, sounded like a good excuse, then during the draw show, the announcer noted Mike Smith didn't seem happy after seeing Arrogate was on the far outside post #8. With it all, I still think Arrogate will win, the race has enough distance for him.

Added: I'm certainly having my doubts the more I see, the more I think about it. There isn't much confidence exuded from Mike Smith from the interview I just saw. I might know what to try if I think Arrogate will win, but if I think he might not win, I won't know what should be done.

What do you do, how to bet, what just box all 7 in a trifecta? It's funny I'm debating between that and keying him to win. There certainly is doubt.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Aug 16, 2017
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