Thread Rating:

onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
Thanked by
michael99000
July 30th, 2017 at 6:39:17 PM permalink
Since there isn't a forum for horse racing, would like to consolidate our racing posts here, that don't belong somewhere else like a Kentucky Derby thread.
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
July 30th, 2017 at 6:56:57 PM permalink
Hard Study is a horse I found by accident 11/11, just by looking up at the screen, recognized a good horse, hit it to win and exacta. He is racing August 3rd at Saratoga, race 8 at 5:02, in the Birdstone Stakes, 1.75 miles. I'm shocked seeing this race so long and him in it. I didn't even know we had races at such a distance. His sire Big Brown didn't even finish in the Belmont in 2008, but his offspring must show some promise if being in this race. Is the distance I see at Equibase correct or error?
I am a robot.
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 999
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
July 30th, 2017 at 8:06:17 PM permalink
i think that race is a 1 1/8....the longest you see thoroughbreds race is usually 2 miles and 1/16th
get second you pig
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
July 30th, 2017 at 9:10:44 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

i think that race is a 1 1/8....the longest you see thoroughbreds race is usually 2 miles and 1/16th

It really is 1.75. I checked the 2 horse Turco Bravo's results in this race and it listed 1.75 miles. Turco Bravo won this race last year and placed the year before. The five horse Scuba is out of Tapit, should have some promise I'd flat guess. That's obvious. Which reminds me, Hard Spun either won or placed in the Belmont iirc. Oops Hard Study is out of Big Brown, not Hard Spun.
I am a robot.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
July 30th, 2017 at 9:16:48 PM permalink
Last years race. It is 1.75 miles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLZqHXa3lpY
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 117
  • Posts: 6272
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
Thanked by
onenickelmiracle
July 31st, 2017 at 10:08:44 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Hard Study is a horse I found by accident 11/11, just by looking up at the screen, recognized a good horse, hit it to win and exacta. He is racing August 3rd at Saratoga, race 8 at 5:02, in the Birdstone Stakes, 1.75 miles. I'm shocked seeing this race so long and him in it. I didn't even know we had races at such a distance. His sire Big Brown didn't even finish in the Belmont in 2008, but his offspring must show some promise if being in this race. Is the distance I see at Equibase correct or error?


Back when they had the Breeders Cup Marathon, the distance was 1 3/4 miles. Apparently, that's the "preferred" distance for "long distance" non-jumping races, as the Breeders Cup Marathon was moved to that distance from 1 1/2 miles after its initial running. If you don't remember there being a race of that length last year, that's because there wasn't one; the Breeders Cup types decided that there just weren't enough "quality" horses that ran that distance to have a race "worthy of the Breeders Cup name." Even when they had it, IIRC the purse was "only" $500,000.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 128
  • Posts: 3914
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
Thanked by
onenickelmiracle
July 31st, 2017 at 6:50:06 PM permalink
I'm in a fairly large contest Saturday. If anyone has Saratoga picks for Saturday, let me know.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
July 31st, 2017 at 7:03:00 PM permalink
In a twist, I'm planning on going to see the WV derby Saturday at Mountaineer. I've never gone, mainly because I didn't care, but now I follow the derby trail. I'm surprised I don't recognize ever seeing these horses race for the most part.
I am a robot.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 128
  • Posts: 3914
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
August 1st, 2017 at 5:03:48 AM permalink
Watch out for bridge jumpers. Mandatory $2.20 to show there. That and Charles Town are the best places to bet against bridge jumpers in the country.
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
August 1st, 2017 at 8:38:06 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Watch out for bridge jumpers. Mandatory $2.20 to show there. That and Charles Town are the best places to bet against bridge jumpers in the country.

Which track is mandatory $2.2 please?
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 1st, 2017 at 1:27:24 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Which track is mandatory $2.2 please?

He was referring to Mountaineer.

I don't think I have much chance picking a winner in the Birdstone Stakes. Hard Study is 5/2, I don't think that's a good price for this race, I'm not really sure he has much chance going that long(how many horses ever have). Turco Bravo seems like a deal at 12/1, because he has ran this race, and well the last two years. Lackluster races after last year's win are apples to oranges, though he is 8 years old now. I'll probably play him and Scuba in some form. The four horse is the favorite having done well recently at 1.5 miles, sounds good to me for an extra 1/4 mile, most the others haven't been tested so long. Wish I knew how to handicap pedigrees.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Aug 1, 2017
I am a robot.
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 999
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
August 1st, 2017 at 6:44:20 PM permalink
the two wv tracks....Charlestown and mountaineer
get second you pig
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 1st, 2017 at 7:31:44 PM permalink
Overlooked the first race at Saratoga Friday Thursday, 2 & 1/16th miles on the turf, Mrs. Ogden Phipps stakes.

Edited:wrong day and race name
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Aug 1, 2017
I am a robot.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2266
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
Thanked by
onenickelmiracle
August 1st, 2017 at 8:31:42 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Overlooked the first race at Saratoga Friday, 2 & 1/16th miles on the turf, Mrs. Ogden stakes.

It is the Mrs. Ogden Phipps Stakes, and it is on Thursday August 3rd, not on Friday. Involved in creating the New York Racing Association (NYRA), which operates the major New York tracks including Saratoga as well as Belmont Park and Aqueduct, and as the owner and breeder of nine thoroughbred champions, Mr. Ogden PHIPPS was one of the most important and famous individuals in the history of American racing and breeding. Which would be why his wife had a minor stakes named in her honor after she died in a fire.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2266
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
Thanked by
onenickelmiracle
August 1st, 2017 at 9:03:47 PM permalink
By the way, besides being restricted to female equine contestants, it is not a regular "flat race." It is a steeplechase event. That means they have to jump over things. A lot of them. So the athletic effort required is like running even a lot longer than the 16.5 furlong distance.

Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 2nd, 2017 at 3:58:03 PM permalink
There is a horse named Nickel Bred at Mountaineer tonight race 4. 😊
I am a robot.
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
August 2nd, 2017 at 5:27:14 PM permalink
Winning by a neck 7/2
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 2nd, 2017 at 5:53:53 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Winning by a neck 7/2

$9.60. 7/6/1. I of course didn't bet it, so it wins. The trifecta I always try catching when two of the numbers adds to the third. Do people tend to avoid such a set of numbers or gravitate to them? I've seen some big payouts like this, tend to think they're avoided.
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 2nd, 2017 at 6:54:21 PM permalink
Btw, a month after he left, realized Paulo Duca was gone at TVG. Miss him being gone. There is a new woman there, I just cannot stand named Candace because of her voice. It's very low, she speaks like some Aristocrat, very pretentious sounding, sounds like she has something in her mouth when she talks.
I am a robot.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 128
  • Posts: 3914
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
August 3rd, 2017 at 4:18:24 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Btw, a month after he left, realized Paulo Duca was gone at TVG. Miss him being gone. There is a new woman there, I just cannot stand named Candace because of her voice. It's very low, she speaks like some Aristocrat, very pretentious sounding, sounds like she has something in her mouth when she talks.



It's really been a month since Lo Duca left? He went to NYRA to replace Mig.

Candace does the late shift international racing for TVG. She knows her stuff. Not everyone has a perfect voice.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 128
  • Posts: 3914
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
August 3rd, 2017 at 4:23:59 AM permalink
By the way, still hoping someone has some thoughts about Saratoga for this weekend. The tournament is on Derby Wars and it's the head to head championship. So there are 64 people, and this Saturday and Sunday are the first and second rounds.

I'll play one person head to head on 9-10 races at Saratoga making mythical $2 WPS. Whoever finishes with highest amount goes to the Round of 32 which would be Sunday.

Then next Saturday and Sunday would get it from 16 to 8 then 8 to 4. Then finally the last weekend would go from 4 left to 2 left, and then a champion. The champion wins 10K. Everyone who makes the final 8 gets at least $1500 I think.

I've played in this tournament format twice and I'm 0-2 in first round matches. I'm going to spend tomorrow night worrying about this.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 3rd, 2017 at 10:39:59 AM permalink
The #5 horse at 33/1 didn't even make it over the second jump before hitting the ground in horrible agony. His legs were flailing around in pain. These races are so dangerous, they shouldn't be run anymore. I'm glad we don't run these much here.
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 3rd, 2017 at 5:31:23 PM permalink
I was shocked Hard Study was so unbothered by the distance. Apparently him being a favorite meant something. I played 2358 boxed ex & tri, wps 3,8. It was funny my original plan when I had heard about the race was to box 1,5, but talked myself out of it. Bet against Pletcher, go out on a stretcher, guess that's what I did.
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 3rd, 2017 at 5:33:42 PM permalink
I'm betting #9 Silver Dust in the WV derby, and that's that. Think I'm maybe gambling 1,7,8,9 $1 tri box as well. Patch deserves respect, but I'm not going to give it to him. Was tempted to bet win on the 7 originally but changed my mind.

Think I'm going to risk a win bet on Tu Brutus over Gun Runner Saturday, but unsure yet.

Made from lucky that won the WV derby 2015, is going to be racing there that day too btw.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Aug 3, 2017
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 4th, 2017 at 11:11:06 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I'm betting #9 Silver Dust in the WV derby, and that's that. Think I'm maybe gambling 1,7,8,9 $1 tri box as well. Patch deserves respect, but I'm not going to give it to him. Was tempted to bet win on the 7 originally but changed my mind.

Think I'm going to risk a win bet on Tu Brutus over Gun Runner Saturday, but unsure yet.

Made from lucky that won the WV derby 2015, is going to be racing there that day too btw.

Not really sure if ill bet at all, but am tempted by Tu Brutus, the horse scratched which was entered in the Birdstone stakes that Hard Study won Thursday.
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 4th, 2017 at 11:16:43 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

It's really been a month since Lo Duca left? He went to NYRA to replace Mig.

Candace does the late shift international racing for TVG. She knows her stuff. Not everyone has a perfect voice.

I don't like her voice because it seems fake to me. Her pronunciation is quite emphasized in an unnatural way too. They put people on tvg that talk like that(lessor roles), over pronouncing words trying to portray confidence with EVERYTHING they say. I dont like it because I can't tell when they're truly confident.
I am a robot.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 128
  • Posts: 3914
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
August 5th, 2017 at 6:43:52 AM permalink
SAR 4 - 14
SAR 5 - 1
SAR 6 - 10
SAR 7 - 1
SAR 8 - 3
SAR 9 - 6
SAR 10 - 7
SAR 11 - 8
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 5th, 2017 at 11:11:57 AM permalink
I think Id have to agree in race 10, quality horse. In this tournament, total money won moves forward, am I correct? Even so, getting in your likely winners is necessary. I usually get 3-5 wins in my tournaments, usually no wins more than $10, I stand a chance of placing in the money in a small field. Don't over think, put the pressure on your opponent.
I am a robot.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
August 5th, 2017 at 11:21:26 AM permalink
Can I get an opinion on a betting system someone told me about ten years ago.
They used it for the Breeders Cup. What they did was pick the best jockey( Jerry Bailey) at the time and only bet his horses. The assumption being the best jockey won't get shut out on racing's biggest day. They martingaled him, which worked great when he lost four races before winning at around $23, lost three and then paid $12 or so. That day, it paid off.
So , rather than dissecting the whole system, is focusing on the jockey a large factor in wagering?
I assume if two horses both rate 100 on scale, you would go with the better jockey, but how about if a 95 horse has the better jockey than a horse you rate 100?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6569
Joined: May 8, 2015
August 5th, 2017 at 3:45:19 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Can I get an opinion on a betting system someone told me about ten years ago.
They used it for the Breeders Cup. What they did was pick the best jockey( Jerry Bailey) at the time and only bet his horses. The assumption being the best jockey won't get shut out on racing's biggest day. They martingaled him, which worked great when he lost four races before winning at around $23, lost three and then paid $12 or so. That day, it paid off.
So , rather than dissecting the whole system, is focusing on the jockey a large factor in wagering?
I assume if two horses both rate 100 on scale, you would go with the better jockey, but how about if a 95 horse has the better jockey than a horse you rate 100?



jerry bailey won 19% of his races lifetime which is excellent. that also means he lost 81% of his races. there had to have been a great many days when he didn't win a single race. of course the jockey is important in a horse race. but there is an old, wise saying: "a great jockey; a poor horse; a poor bet." a great jockey cannot make a weak horse run superbly. but a poor jockey can screw up the trip on a strong horse. since so many in the crowd love hot jockeys and superstar jockeys the odds on their horses are very often crushed way down. imho a far better strategy would be to bet against hot jockeys and superstar jockeys when you believe that their horse is not extremely tough to beat.
Please don't feed the trolls
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 6th, 2017 at 12:06:32 AM permalink
Went to the West Virginia derby, only bet $1 tri box 178, it hit. Played the same with the race with On Leave and hit the tri again at Saratoga. It was exhilarating. Had the super in the derby too but didn't want to waste $9 after slot losses. Shame I always do that. Silver dust was acting up in the paddock, gave up on him fast and realized that was never going to happen. As always big race day, wish I bet more. If I bet more, I'd just spread or throw every horse to show in tries. In the Preakness, it would have paid off instead of the goose.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Aug 6, 2017
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 6th, 2017 at 1:56:23 AM permalink
Is this irony? Seriously I don't know what irony is.

We had parked near the casino, then drove to the track before the derby. Saw some guys sitting by their trunk looking at programs and asked them who they had thought would win. They said they didn't know and said I should go look at the horses. I went straight to the paddock but told them I liked 1789. When I had got there, didn't like 9 anymore, but I was already easing out of that one. The results were 71839 as you might remember.

Saw those guys leaving, told them I had one and the one guy had said 7/18 was his birthday. Reminded him I had told him I liked those horses. His friend laughed I was rubbing it in because I was showing him pictures of the trifecta ticket and the encore ticket. They liked Patch, that's what got them. Unfortunately my view was blocked of the stretch until right at the finish line hearing those hooves pounding harder than any other race I'd seen at Mountaineer. Patch was outside as wide as could be, I assume because of the eye. Have to admit, I looked at his empty eye socket, it was sad, but a good looking horse.

The 5 was really tiny, I was kind of shocked by his small body. I liked the 11 too, kind of regretted before the race, forgetting about him when I had bet. It was nice seeing the derby horses, wish I had had seen them more, as this will probably be the last time. Noticed the track claimed attendance of 13,000, yeah, no. It was crowded, but not bad at all. Probably like a typical Friday night ten years ago.

Which races like this with derby runners this year are going to be close for me? I'd like to head out somewhere, but in NE Ohio, I can't think of anywhere possibly close. Any events that may be upcoming in the next few months?
I am a robot.
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
Thanked by
onenickelmiracle
August 6th, 2017 at 6:50:21 AM permalink
Good hit on 718 tri.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 6th, 2017 at 4:27:20 PM permalink
After all that fun, somehow there is between $100 and $200 unaccounted for, no clue where it went. Luckily I was winning today or I'd be uncomfortable. I have no clue where it went, either I tipped a hundred dollar bill thinking it was $1, gave more than I thought to my sister, someone pickpocketed me but only grabbed some money from my wallet somehow, I left money in machines or ticket redemption machine, just no clue.
I am a robot.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 128
  • Posts: 3914
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
Thanked by
onenickelmiracle
August 6th, 2017 at 4:54:26 PM permalink
That's terrible that you're missing that much. Hope it didn't ruin your time too much. I really want to go to Mountaineer. Peter Berry is my favorite race caller. He did a great job in the WV Derby.

I'm in the Final 16 of my Derby Wars Tournament. 1 win away from clinching $1250. 4 wins away from $10,000. Next match is Saturday.

I'll be at Arlington that day for the Million. Should be a fun day.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 6th, 2017 at 5:20:34 PM permalink
Thanks fin.

I got $20 WP on Placido coming up Del Mar race 8. Just a bit nervous about it 6/1, but the odds are going to have to climb because Placido isn't even getting a blurb on tvg. Had him in my stable, didn't even look him up to see why and decided to shoot. We'll see.
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 6th, 2017 at 5:41:03 PM permalink
Oh well. Made the bet at the track, couldn't cancel it when I saw those neck sweats on Placido. Made me wonder when he took the lead, but it was obvious he wasn't winning, he just looked not good enough.
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 8th, 2017 at 11:56:30 AM permalink
If a bridge jumper is making a bad bet, does that really mean betting against them is a good bet? Or both bad bets?

Never thought of this, but maybe the bridge jumpers are using the tracks to launder money, the only reason they make these bets.
I am a robot.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 128
  • Posts: 3914
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
August 8th, 2017 at 5:52:10 PM permalink
I honestly think every bet against a bridge jumper is a good bet.

I'm not sure how you could possibly launder money that way.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 100
  • Posts: 14265
Joined: May 21, 2013
August 9th, 2017 at 1:52:20 AM permalink
Old Stewball was a racehorse,
And I wish he were mine.
He never drank water;
He always drank wine.

His bridle was silver,
And his mane it was gold,
And the worth of his saddle
Has never been told.

Well, the fairgrounds were crowded
And old Stewball was there,
But the betting was heavy
On the Bay and the Mare.

So come all you gamblers
From near and from far
Don't bet your gold dollar
On that little grey mare

Most likely she will stumble
Most likely she'll fall
But you never will lose
On my noble Stewball

Sit tight on your saddle
Let slack on your rein
And you never will lose boys,
You always will gain

As they were a-riding
'Bout halfway 'round
That grey mare she stumbled
And fell to the ground

Then away up a yonder
Ahead of them all,
Came a - prancing and a -dancing;
My noble Stewball.

I bet on the Grey mare
And I bet on the Bay,
But if I'd a bet on old Stewball,
I'd be a free man today.

Old Stewball was a racehorse,
And I wish he were mine.
He never drank water;
He always drank wine.

-Leadbelly / PP&M hybrid
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
August 9th, 2017 at 10:18:08 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

-Leadbelly

Always a colorful character. Prison songs and folk songs. Wonder if his vocals are in the public domain? Anyone want to try to get rich?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6569
Joined: May 8, 2015
August 9th, 2017 at 4:02:29 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I honestly think every bet against a bridge jumper is a good bet.



i don't think i would agree with that statement because in betting against bridge jumpers, the many times the bridge jumpers don't want to jump you will often get a shrunken payout because there is such a little amount of money to split. in the race i linked here, betting against songbird in the show pool the #1 horse finished second at odds of 7/1 and paid only $2.10 to show. it's a small field but you would normally expect a horse at 7/1 to pay at least even money to show. in the 2nd link in betting against california chrome betting the #4 horse to show he was 26/1 to win. and he paid only $2.80 to show. west virginia may be a greatly different story because of the higher mandatory payouts.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=PRX&raceDate=09/24/2016&cy=USA&rn=10

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=10/01/2016&cy=USA&rn=7
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 9, 2017
Please don't feed the trolls
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 9th, 2017 at 6:04:02 PM permalink
I think I'm going to go to the Pennsylvania derby. It's 9/23rd correct, at Parx?

Someone recommended a horse site today called winningponies.com for links to racing news. He mentioned Classic Empire is headed there, to the Pennsylvania derby.
I am a robot.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 128
  • Posts: 3914
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
August 10th, 2017 at 5:01:36 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

i don't think i would agree with that statement because in betting against bridge jumpers, the many times the bridge jumpers don't want to jump you will often get a shrunken payout because there is such a little amount of money to split. in the race i linked here, betting against songbird in the show pool the #1 horse finished second at odds of 7/1 and paid only $2.10 to show. it's a small field but you would normally expect a horse at 7/1 to pay at least even money to show. in the 2nd link in betting against california chrome betting the #4 horse to show he was 26/1 to win. and he paid only $2.80 to show. west virginia may be a greatly different story because of the higher mandatory payouts.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=PRX&raceDate=09/24/2016&cy=USA&rn=10

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=10/01/2016&cy=USA&rn=7



Not every result will make you money. But if you do it every time, you'll be up overall. The horse will probably hit the board 9 out of 10 times.

I'd say the average bridge jumper race has 7 horses. So if you're betting every other horse to show, you're betting $12 a race. When the horse hits the board, you're probably going to end up losing $7. But, one out of 10 times, you're probably going to be ending up winning $100 on average.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6569
Joined: May 8, 2015
August 10th, 2017 at 8:13:23 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

But, one out of 10 times, you're probably going to be ending up winning $100 on average.




that's a very interesting comment you made. I cannot dispute it because I have not been tracking the results of bridge jumpers' horses. but I will say that if that is your experience it is very surprising to me. I would have guessed that the jumpers' horses scored much more often than that. if your sample size is large enough to indicate blanket correctness then that is one of the VERY VERY VERY VERY FEW legitimate systems for making money at the track. also, tracks are known for sometimes refusing show bets in small fields which suggests that their experience has not been good with bridge jumpers even though they get a windfall when the horse fails. and express bet and twinspires will sometimes terminate the account of bridge jumpers who have won. here is the link to a 2011 DRF story:



http://www.drf.com/news/xpressbet-policy-prompts-review-california


this is kind of interesting. in googling around i found a twitter feed re bridge jumper alerts. lol

https://twitter.com/bridgejumper?lang=en
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 10, 2017
Please don't feed the trolls
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
August 10th, 2017 at 6:46:04 PM permalink
R Sunday Surprise, CC's full sister, won on the turf tonight at Del Mar.
I am a robot.
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 999
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
August 10th, 2017 at 11:13:54 PM permalink
Never, ever. Bridge jump against Hotspur harriat at the mountain....you're welcome
get second you pig
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 128
  • Posts: 3914
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
August 11th, 2017 at 2:30:20 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

that's a very interesting comment you made. I cannot dispute it because I have not been tracking the results of bridge jumpers' horses. but I will say that if that is your experience it is very surprising to me. I would have guessed that the jumpers' horses scored much more often than that. if your sample size is large enough to indicate blanket correctness then that is one of the VERY VERY VERY VERY FEW legitimate systems for making money at the track. also, tracks are known for sometimes refusing show bets in small fields which suggests that their experience has not been good with bridge jumpers even though they get a windfall when the horse fails. and express bet and twinspires will sometimes terminate the account of bridge jumpers who have won. here is the link to a 2011 DRF story:



http://www.drf.com/news/xpressbet-policy-prompts-review-california


this is kind of interesting. in googling around i found a twitter feed re bridge jumper alerts. lol

https://twitter.com/bridgejumper?lang=en



The jumpers need to hit 96 out of 100 to make money. It's just not realistic. If Arrogate doesn't show, no horse is safe.

As for xpress and twinspires terminating accounts of bridge jump bettors, doesn't affect me, because I'm betting against them.

You can actually guarantee yourself a profit if the show percentage on a certain horse is big enough. Songbird and Arrogate were recent examples. You're getting 1-2% return, but it's a guarantee. Most people don't have enough liquid cash to do it though.

It is the only system for actually making money at the track that I know of, but a legitimate opportunity probably happens once a day (max) on average across the country on a weekend. A lot of times you'll see 60-70% of show money bet on a horse, but it's not enough. If it's at that rate you need to handicap the race.

It needs to get in the 85-90% range to make it worth it for me to bet automatically on.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 128
  • Posts: 3914
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
August 11th, 2017 at 2:31:37 AM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

Never, ever. Bridge jump against Hotspur harriat at the mountain....you're welcome



What about Huntress Helena?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6569
Joined: May 8, 2015
August 11th, 2017 at 6:38:22 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

The horse will probably hit the board 9 out of 10 times.



another way to look at it using that stat is that the bridge jumper in WVA is almost breaking even doing no handicapping because of the higher payout. with a little bit of handicapping; selecting only la creme de la creme; he should be able to turn a small profit. very small. unless he's willing to bet very big. and if he bets very big there will still be a bridge sometime in his future that he will be thinking about.
Please don't feed the trolls
  • Jump to: