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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 16th, 2017 at 10:54:47 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Here's a story of the horse I own a small percentage of. She won her first race. Beaten 3/4 of a length in her 2nd race when she bled. On lasix for her 3rd race, she was off at odds on. She was leading the whole way, traveling comfortably, and then just stopped in the stretch to finish last. The person standing next to me yelled "she's a quitter!" I flipped out on him for saying such a rude thing in the owner's area.

Anyway, a few days later we find out she has a hairline fracture.

I've owned parts of 4 horses, and I think it's made me a better handicapper. Because, it's driven home the fact that they are animals, and you can't the whole story by just looking at the page, or even by looking at them in person.

I understand the horses are animals, just the fact it seems like perceived odds of winning the race have nothing to do with place, show, and fourth. Just because a horse cannot win a race, it doesn't mean the horse can't make the board. Especially more so the more horses in a race.

Plus sometimes in some races it seems like the jockeys have unwritten rules to just maintain current placing once it's clear none of them can win.
#FreeNATHAN #Paytheslaves
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 16th, 2017 at 11:32:42 AM permalink
Saratoga race 1, if you enter your horse into a steeple chase race, you are throwing that horse away. I dont think the fences are properly designed at all. The two didn't make a fence and the flap sprung up endangering all the other horses. They should use real bushes imo, not use fake setups.
#FreeNATHAN #Paytheslaves
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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August 16th, 2017 at 11:50:52 AM permalink
there was an old charlie chan movie where some crooks tried to fix a horse race. they bet big against the big favorite. when he came around the backstretch they hid behind some old broken down building and were going to shoot a dart with a tranquilizer into the favorite's backside so he would falter. charlie found out about it and stopped them in time. and the big favorite won and all the people who bet on him were happy. charlie chan saved the day as usual.
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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August 16th, 2017 at 12:54:45 PM permalink
bridge jumping, Dutching, ... its all too confusing to me. Tranquilizing darts take time and require expert marksmen. Easier to granquilize the jockey.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 16th, 2017 at 1:04:49 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

bridge jumping, Dutching, ... its all too confusing to me. Tranquilizing darts take time and require expert marksmen. Easier to granquilize the jockey.

Horse betting is a pari-mutuel, you are technically betting against the other people. When someone is bridge jumping, they're trying to take advantage of loop holes about the minimum a bet can pay, with a whole lot risked for a very small return, they are 100% convinced is safe.
#FreeNATHAN #Paytheslaves
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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August 16th, 2017 at 1:14:58 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

What do you do, how to bet,



unless they're bet down i think i'm going to bet both collected and accelerate to win. if i'm right about arrogate not being the same horse he once was and if a shot doesn't wake up and stiff me the bet will win.
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
coilman
coilman
Joined: Jan 29, 2012
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August 16th, 2017 at 3:31:07 PM permalink
What would you T bred bettors call this warm up

https://streamable.com/7wlui
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 16th, 2017 at 6:18:57 PM permalink
Quote: coilman

What would you T bred bettors call this warm up

https://streamable.com/7wlui

I have no idea what that even is.
#FreeNATHAN #Paytheslaves
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 16th, 2017 at 6:21:30 PM permalink
Quote: Paulick Report

Keith Desormeaux, trainer of 3-year-old Sorry Erik, thought the No. 4 was a good post, but said he'll have to do some serious thinking before fully committing to the Classic. The Grade II $250,000 Del Mar Derby, at 1 1/8 miles on grass September 3, beckons.

“He runs well on dirt or turf and he'll love the mile and a quarter, so there is some inclination to run,” Desormeaux said. “But in all probability, we won't. The Del Mar Derby is the goal. If the field comes up with any more than five, I'll wait for the Del Mar Derby.”

Sadler did not enter Hard Aces in Saturday's Del Mar Handicap as he had previously indicated he might. That would have meant withdrawing the veteran handicap division runner from the Pacific Classic. Sadler said he'll monitor developments in the coming days before making a decision.

Horses can be scratched as late as two hours before the race, which has a post time of approximately 5:40 as the eighth on an 11-race card. The TVG Pacific Classic is a “Win and You're In” qualifier for the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic here on November 4.

I was excited thinking there were going to be 8 horses, now it's going to be lame. A five or six horse race is pathetic from betting and entertainment standpoints.
#FreeNATHAN #Paytheslaves
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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August 16th, 2017 at 6:34:34 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Fin: what is your opinion of betting against the jumpers' horse in the win pool if its odds are 1/9 or less? the downside: you won't win as much when you win because in a field of 7 you guarantee yourself 5 losers instead of 3 in the show pool. and only one winner instead of 3 when you do win. the upside is that you still win if the jumpers' horse gets 2nd or 3rd.

yay or nay?



I wouldn't bet all the horses. I'd just treat the win pool like a normal race. Usually if there's a 1/9 shot, you have real good value on the 2nd choice.

I don't understand how horses get to 1/9. Who is betting on a 1/9 to win, when you can bet them to show? Anyway tracks aren't all equal. A 1/9 at Saratoga is a higher quality horse than a 1/9 at Mountaineer.

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