FinsRule
FinsRule
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
January 26th, 2018 at 2:45:20 PM permalink
I don't think I've seen a 2018 Kentucky Derby thread yet. (If I'm missing it, please don't suspend me for flooding!!!!)

Anyway... this would be the place to post thoughts related to the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes in 2018. All other horse racing related posts should continue in the "Never Ending Horse Thread"
FinsRule
FinsRule
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January 26th, 2018 at 2:45:55 PM permalink
There are three prep races next Saturday (2/3). I'll post my thoughts on them after the entries are drawn.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 3rd, 2018 at 10:00:18 AM permalink
My picks for the three Derby prep races today are:

Holy Bull - Hollywood Star
Bob Lewis - Dark Vader
Withers - Marconi
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 3rd, 2018 at 6:47:46 PM permalink
Good. Glad you did this. Of course the other semi-current racing thread was created in the wrong section, where nobody with an interest in horsing around would be likely to find it.

My focus for those races, listed in order of most to least interest, was on:

#1. Holy Bull @GP: Mississippi (Pioneer of the Nile - Storm Cat), from Mark Casse's barn; Result: scratched, so no bet.
#2. Withers @AQU: Avery Island (Street Sense - A.P. Indy), from Kiaran McLaughlin's stable; Result: bet down to even money in a short field, no bet, shadowed the pacesetter, pounced at the top of the stretch, easily drew away from the field to win by open lengths, with none of my money on him.
#0. Robert B. Lewis @SA: no clue, and little interest other than preferring to see Baffert choke on a cocktail olive, so no bet.
My total net on Feb. 3rd Derby preps: zero dollars.

But this is past posting, so I could be lying.



Quote: FinsRule

...Bob Lewis - Dark Vader...

$13.60 to show!
FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 3rd, 2018 at 7:34:04 PM permalink
With Hollywood Star scratched, my pick became Tiz Mischief. That means that each of my 3 picks finished 3rd. That doesn't really mean anything.

Out of the 3 preps, I'm not really even sure who was most impressive. Maybe Avery Island?
Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 6th, 2018 at 11:55:42 AM permalink
Thanks for starting the thread.

Mississippi did scratch from a poor post (#11) in the loaded Holy Bull, but he got to run the very next day at the same distance. He finished second after breaking on top and falling back on the backstretch. He came running late and I liked his race. The time was slower when compared to the Holy Bull (about 1/2 second). I have him in my barn and look forward to his first stakes race (maybe the Fountain Of Youth @ Gulfstream?).



Holy Bull video:
FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 9th, 2018 at 3:24:39 PM permalink
Sam F. Davis at Tampa is the only Derby points race this weekend.

Baffert has a good one going 7 furlongs at Santa Anita. He'd probably have to really impress to get a shot going longer.

Catholic Boy is going to be the big favorite tomorrow at Tampa. I'll stick with my Holy Bull pick - Hollywood Star to win the race.
speedycrap
speedycrap
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February 9th, 2018 at 4:16:27 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Sam F. Davis at Tampa is the only Derby points race this weekend.

Baffert has a good one going 7 furlongs at Santa Anita. He'd probably have to really impress to get a shot going longer.

Catholic Boy is going to be the big favorite tomorrow at Tampa. I'll stick with my Holy Bull pick - Hollywood Star to win the race.

Catholic Boy won his last race with ease. I like 6 -5-2.7. No 3.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 9th, 2018 at 4:40:46 PM permalink
As a Derby future Hollywood Star makes sense. Stakes placed and broke maiden already @ Churchill Downs. Unfortunately his odds are a bit low for me to wager on him at this point. Who is going to make the lead in the Sam F Davis? The race looks devoid of the kind speed we used to see in these prep races.
Past performances can be viewed here (Click on Flameaway's Ultimate PPs):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/MarkCasse/CASSE+MARK/9999/summary.html
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 10th, 2018 at 4:12:40 AM permalink
Daily Racing Form made it their "Race of the Day" so they also have free PPs for the Sam F Davis available in DRF's format available here: http://www.drf.com/events/race-of-the-day

Same for Equibase PPs as it is their "Featured Race of the Week" available here: https://www.equibase.com/content/rotw/fullpp.pdf
...or from the link on this page if that direct url to the pdf document doesn't work:
https://www.equibase.com/free/index.cfm?SAP=TN

I'm interested in checking out some red wine this afternoon in Tampa, otherwise known as the lightly raced colt Vino Rosso breaking from gate #3 in his third lifetime start and first stakes. I don't know about betting him here under these circumstance. Probably not today; I'd need a pretty juicy price (like 9/2-5/1-ish+) which I think is unlikely for anything from this barn (Pletcher, Velazquez) especially in a 7 horse field, and in Florida. But I'll be watching him closely for any read I might get on how good he might potentially be. If it turns out that he has the talent and temperament, I love the pedigree for going on with it: Curlin - Street Cry, weighted 2x Sire & 1x Damsire = AWD 7.7f, so on-paper (statistically from progeny performance data) he's really well bred for something like a mile and a half or so at age 4+. By the way, if it should happen to rain on any of his races he should be laughing & grinning & gliding.

Fairgrounds @New Orleans takes entries & assigns posts for their races much earlier than others, so PPs for the Risen Star next weekend are already available. The BRIS version can be had here:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.htm
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Feb 10, 2018

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