FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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February 10th, 2018 at 6:40:57 AM permalink
Looking at the PPs closer, Vino Rosso does look real good. I'm not betting on this race, because it doesn't look like there's any money to be made. It looks like a 3 horse race, and they are all going to be at low prices.

The Remsen, and all of the NY horses are on trial here. If Catholic Boy wins, Avery Island and Firenze Fire's future wager prices will drop.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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February 10th, 2018 at 6:50:10 AM permalink
I'm following Pool 2 of the Derby Future Wager closely.

I love betting the "Field". I will bet the field at 5/2 or better.

There are a lot of intriguing options for individual horses, but the odds can and do change.

Bolt D'Oro is 5-1 which will probably go up to 6 or 7-1, but is still a terrible bet 83 days out.

I'll post again tonight after the races.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 10th, 2018 at 7:46:12 PM permalink
I bet $55 on the field. $15 on Instilled Regard. $3 on Mendelssohn. $3 on Mourinho. I'm hoping the field can hold at 5/2.

Catholic Boy disappointed. He cost me the Pick-5. I think this weakens the form of the other NY horses. It looks like another CA based Derby year.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 10th, 2018 at 8:25:28 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I bet $55 on the field. $15 on Instilled Regard. $3 on Mendelssohn. $3 on Mourinho. I'm hoping the field can hold at 5/2.

Catholic Boy disappointed. He cost me the Pick-5. I think this weakens the form of the other NY horses. It looks like another CA based Derby year.


Sorry to hear your multi-race ticket was lost. The top 3 ran well IMO and any could improve out of the race. Nice final time and competitive down the lane. "Red Wine" performed solid to close into a paceless event. He is lightly raced, but you just never know with Pletcher 3yos...
Hollywood Star disappointed.

As for the Derby Future Pool 2, I would also lean towards the field. The "Top 2" (Good Magic and Bolt d'Oro) have yet to race this year. I already have Retirement Fund and Combatant in my futures barn.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 16th, 2018 at 3:41:53 PM permalink
There's a free contest that starts tomorrow - derbydollarscontest.com

Anyone who has any interest in the Derby trail should sign up. There are free pps up for the Risen Star tomorrow.

My pick for the contest is Noble Indy.

I'm really torn on this race. I put $15 on Instilled Regard in the Derby future pool. So obviously I'm rooting for him. Hollendorfer shipping to Louisiana is just so weird.

Supreme Aura is interesting. Stidham has been working him 6 furlongs to get ready for this.

Bravazo is interesting. Why is Lukas sending him to Louisiana? And having Gary Stevens on him has to be a good sign. But Gary isn't on either of Lukas's mounts in the Southwest.

Principe Guilherme is even a bigger question mark. He was no match for Instilled Regard at all, but someone liked enough of him to put a fairly big future wager - 2 or 3K last weekend. That happened with Gun Runner a couple of years back, and he won the Risen Star.

Anyone have any ideas?
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 16th, 2018 at 8:49:39 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

...<SNIP>...

Principe Guilherme is even a bigger question mark. He was no match for Instilled Regard at all, but someone liked enough of him to put a fairly big future wager - 2 or 3K last weekend. That happened with Gun Runner a couple of years back, and he won the Risen Star.

Anyone have any ideas?

Steve Asmussen has also cross entered that one in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday, so he'll be a scratch from one of them - I don't know which.

I liked him in each of his first three starts, including the Lecomte. He's quite nicely bred (weighted AWD 7.5f) for what's being asked of him to continue along this path, and if it rains that shouldn't bother him a bit. But right now in either of this weekend's races, I dunno. I'm not sure how I want to evaluate his last race, it is getting more salty, and I could make a case for too many, including a blizzard of 3y/o Asmussen prospects on tap at Oaklawn on Monday.

So my answer to your question would be pretty much: "No, I don't."
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Feb 16, 2018
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
Johnzimbo
February 17th, 2018 at 4:15:56 AM permalink
Instilled Regard was bumped in the stretch in the G1 Los Alamitos thing and he still finished a game 2nd. then he won a G3 at FG drawing clear easily. he could be the real deal. so hard to say though, they're still so young and inexperienced. I don't think the difference between G1, G2, and G3 is really much when they're that young. am I right Dead?
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 17, 2018
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 17th, 2018 at 11:36:25 AM permalink
Lots of 3 year olds running this weekend...

Risen Star - I am pulling for a good race from #1 High North. I have been waiting for his first race at 3. Noble Indy is hard to figure. He ran 2 great races @ Gulfstream but now ships out to Fairgrounds. I would lean towards tossing him in here. He may also be distanced challenged for the Derby.

El Camino Real - Not a great prep for Derby day but still a points race for some reason. I like Choo Choo and Epical today.

Southwest - This one came up tough. Loads of speed/frontrunners signed up. I am looking for a presser/closer to win on Monday. Maybe Combatant? I am also hoping for a good race from Retirement Fund. Will S. Asmussen win this event with 4 entries in the race?
----------

Other 3yo events I will be watching:
Sunday 18th - Tampa Race #2 - Hazit returns in a 7f sprint and Earth (Orb's 1st progeny winner) will try the dirt and can be claimed for 75k (in case anyone is interested in a purchase).
Monday 19th - Fairgrounds Race #8 - #6 Dark Templar - He is my play of the "weekend". With a clean start, he should visit the winner's circle.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 17th, 2018 at 4:20:04 PM permalink
Risen Star - Merry-go-round race won on the front end. High North finished 5th (blerg).

El Camino Real - The filly Paved won nicely. My runners performed poorly.

Not a good day for my Derby barn. Hopefully Monday will yield better results...
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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February 18th, 2018 at 9:20:11 AM permalink
I don't think anyone from the Risen Star is a threat for the Derby. I had a double with Bravazo, but for some reason I didn't have that the 78-1 that won the next race.

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