FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
  • Threads: 119
  • Posts: 3667
March 3rd, 2018 at 8:19:08 PM permalink
Definitely a good day for me. I won my contest by picking Promises to win. Too bad I didn't spend the $7 to add him in my Pick-3. Anyway, Good Magic needed a race. But if this race was as slow as everyone says, then Good Magic is behind and needs to catch up quickly.

Good Magic flopping makes all of my Derby future bets worth a little more.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 3rd, 2018 at 8:32:23 PM permalink
After the race & squinting at it sideways I still don't expect that result, and if there was a prop for the o/u of repeating it once out of twenty spins, I think I'd still take the under for duplicating this (legit) race-riding larceny. (And Fins would be too rich to hang out here.) Four were on the pace clearly separated from the rest by midway in the first turn, they stayed that way through the backstretch, and after only Storm Runner backed out of the pace-setting group in the far turn, the three on the pace not only stayed that way all the way to the wire to cash in all three spots "across the board" but they even did so in exactly the same order all the way 'round playing a polite "excuse me, after you."

It is far from a perfect correlation to success moving on & up, but for a quick & dirty tentative evaluation I look for something to finish this race in 1:42-ish raw unadjusted time to call it probably a meaningful step forward for the winner & perhaps also some of his company near the wire. And under close to normal/average conditions, I think of something more in the neighborhood of 1:44 as grounds for suspecting an anomalous race.may have rewarded an inferior performance, or that the field in it that year may just suck. Remember all the great racing exploits of Booklet (1:44.49) and Duc d' Sligovil (1:44.98) and Storm Tower (1:44.98) and Shot Gun Scott (1:44.60) in the 3yo classics after this? Neither do I, since there weren't any, and I had to look them up to find the names of those stiffs. In contrast, after their winning FoY efforts I'm pretty sure the later accomplishments of Orb (1:42.24) and Pulpit (1:41.86) will be quite a bit easier for many people to recall. This one today finally put the timer to sleep after 1:44.17.

I hope the first two do end up in the gate for the KY Derby, with several others like them for a festive bunch throwing a wild party for about a minute and a half of a two minute race. I'd like to see a return of the traditional hot pace running far too quick for the 10f distance, being set by some who will never again see any major part of a mile and a quarter, and shouldn't.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Mar 3, 2018
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 996
March 4th, 2018 at 8:24:31 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

-snip-
Gulfstream 3/4 Race #12 - #6 Biblical and #7 Regal Quality
-snip-

These 2 completed the exacta today. The final time was a sluggish 1:46.57. It makes the FOY final time look "fast"...

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
This one today finally put the timer to sleep after 1:44.17.
-snip-



On to next weekend with 3 USA preps - Gotham, San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 145
  • Posts: 2220
March 5th, 2018 at 6:23:59 AM permalink
Audible was REALLY impressive winning the Holy Bull. He did the last 2.5 furlongs in a scintillating 29.92. By comparison Promises Fulfilled covered the same ground in 31.57. I don't know what the speed figures were. Audible was 2.25 seconds faster for the final time of the entire race. Same track, both times rated fast. The last news on Audible said he was headed to the Florida Derby. I usually don't plunge when they're that young but if I can get a decent price I may.

Check out his kick down the stretch. He looks like he's having a party out there:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezHpXZACywg
"𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺𝘣𝘰𝘥𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘢 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘯 𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘩𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘢𝘤𝘦"..........ᴍɪᴋᴇ ᴛyꜱᴏɴ
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 996
March 9th, 2018 at 3:36:16 PM permalink
3 Preps for tomorrow.

Tampa Bay Derby - Tampa Bay Race 11
I would toss Flameaway as World Of Trouble will likely keep him honest on the front end. No stealing this one. Vino Rosso and Tiz Mischief is where I would lean. This assumes Enticed and Free Drop Billy run in NY.
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=TAM&country=USA&raceDate=20180310&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=11#past-performance-race/11

San Felipe - Santa Anita Race 6
Bolt d'Oro vs McKinzie - I will just be watching this one...
Click on McKinzie Ultimate PPs:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm

Gotham - Aqueduct Race 10
Free Drop Billy and Enticed is where I would lean. Return to a one turn mile @ Aqueduct is interesting change for this prep.
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Gotham18.pdf

Kentuckdy Derby Future Pool #3 is open for the weekend:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-3
ahiromu
ahiromu
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 2101
March 10th, 2018 at 12:58:05 PM permalink
I enjoy betting on a winner. I'll probably take McKinzie... just so much potential (already proven quite a bit too). We'll see if I'm a fool for betting against an obviously talented Bolt. It's likely.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 10th, 2018 at 2:36:04 PM permalink
Tampa Derby:

I am tempted to give Vino Rosso credit for a better performance in the Sam F. Davis than the black & white running line on Feb 10, in part due to what I saw in the gallop out past the wired, after his turn of foot when he finally got straightened out to 'fly right' for the stretch run. I think that alone would not be a great reason to bet him. But I probably will, in a small sporting amount that won't leave me crying.

Timely advice from Natalie for this point in this equine adolescent's career:

I am interested in watching Graham Motion's colt (#9-Untamed Domain, Animal Kingdom > Lear Fan). But not betting him. There's certainly no reason I can see in his races to date to avoid stretching him out further than these middle distances, he has a very fine pedigree for taking to a distance of ground beyond what's being asked at this point, and for the potential of continued improvement throughout his 3 y/o season. But it is also particularly well suited for the grass he's been running on, and I have no other information to suggest he'd particularly like the footing on dirt.

EDIT: Phooey.

The official result chart notes:
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Mar 10, 2018
ahiromu
ahiromu
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 2101
March 10th, 2018 at 3:34:04 PM permalink
Can anyone tell me if that Bolt/McKinzie objection/inquiry was controversial? I don't know the rules well enough.

Santa Anita, 3/10/2018 (saturday), race 6
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 996
March 10th, 2018 at 4:30:28 PM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

Can anyone tell me if that Bolt/McKinzie objection/inquiry was controversial? I don't know the rules well enough.

Santa Anita, 3/10/2018 (saturday), race 6


I did not think so. McKinzie was definitely drifting out a couple of paths late near the wire. And I believe this is why the stewards ultimately DQed him to 2nd. Equibase charts of the race:

https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=03/10/2018&cy=USA&rn=6

San Felipe video:

ahiromu
ahiromu
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 2101
March 10th, 2018 at 5:31:02 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

I did not think so. McKinzie was definitely drifting out a couple of paths late near the wire. And I believe this is why the stewards ultimately DQed him to 2nd. Equibase charts of the race:



Thanks. I ended out betting a small amount (vs more $) on McKinzie because the odds got so small it probably wasn't worth it. A pretty good race, sad to see it end like that.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"

  • Jump to: