2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

Quote: Keeneone

Lots of 3 year olds running this weekend...
-snip-
Other 3yo events I will be watching:
Sunday 18th - Tampa Race #2 - Hazit returns in a 7f sprint and Earth (Orb's 1st progeny winner) will try the dirt and can be claimed for 75k (in case anyone is interested in a purchase).

Hazit finished 2nd and Earth 3rd. None in this race look to have Derby aspirations, but sprinting could be Hazit's thing...

Quote: Keeneone

-snip-
Southwest - This one came up tough. Loads of speed/frontrunners signed up. I am looking for a presser/closer to win on Monday. Maybe Combatant? I am also hoping for a good race from Retirement Fund. Will S. Asmussen win this event with 4 entries in the race?
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-snip-
Monday 19th - Fairgrounds Race #8 - #6 Dark Templar - He is my play of the "weekend". With a clean start, he should visit the winner's circle.

Southwest Stakes - Won by My Boy Jack up the rail. Combatant finished second. Both came from way back to close strongly into an honest pace. Decent come back race for Sporting Chance (3rd), not sure about the other runners future on the Derby trail. Excuses will likely be the wet track condition. Video can be viewed here:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/southwest
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Dark Templar won on the front end.
[https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/965719011324497920

The Fountain of Youth is Saturday at Gulfstream. Good Magic, the current futures book favorite, will be racing for the first time in 4 months. He has won once in his career. He will probably be odds on in this spot.

I can't support that. And, him not being good would make all of my futures bets worth more. So I will be heavily rooting against. Which means he's a lock.

I'll be rooting for Strike Power and Storm Runner.

I haven't looked at the pps yet. I can give a more accurate assessment of the race after I do that tomorrow.

I have handicapped the race. I landed on Free Drop Billy. He has the back class, reunites with his normal rider, ran a nice one off the layoff over Gulfstream, and likely gets a good pace setup to pounce from a pressing trip. I do not have any Derby future runners in the race. I usually root for the runners with Derby points to keep new runners from entering the Top 20 in Derby points. Free DRF pps:
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=GP&country=USA&raceDate=20180303&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=14#past-performance-race/14

Here are a few other 3 year old runners I plan on watching this weekend.
Gulfstream 3/3 Race #11 - #1 Personal Time (I have mentioned him previously).
Gulfstream 3/4 Race #12 - #6 Biblical and #7 Regal Quality

This thread has been very quiet this year, I guess there are not many interested in this form of gambling on the site.

I can't bet against Good Magic, not even 1st race back from a layoff with his trainer's proficiency at that. I like the progression of his races so far, and for later bigger races I like the layoff/freshening and the limited juvenile campaign too.. And if he's bet to the very chalky price I expect, I can't bet on him today either.

My average winning distance calculation for the progeny of the Fountain of Youth pedigrees, weighted at 2x sire & 1x for the sire of the dam:

A) Clearly bred for the probability of getting classic distances, with later longer than average time for full growth to maturity often expected and continued improvement likely long after other other precocious stock has reached peak performance:

#2 - Free Drop Billy 7.5f
#6 - Good Magic 7.5f
#1 - He Takes Charge 7.4f

B) Maybe this or maybe that or the other thing, could be fish or fowl pedigrees, not heavily tilted toward producing either precocious speed or mature distance runners::

#5 - Storm Runner 7.2f
#8 - Marconi 7.2f
#9 - Machismo 7.2f

C) Those that would clearly be significantly outrunning their pedigrees if they end up getting a sniff of the wire when the camera goes off in a Grade 1 at a mile and a quarter two months from now:

#4 - Strike Power 6.9f
#3 - Peppered 6.8f
#10 - Promises Fulfilled 6.7f
#7 - Gotta Go 6.5f

Of course this is not a "classic distance" today. A mile and a sixteenth is a "middle distance" race. And this is not nine weeks later & more towards the middle of their three year old season of equine adolescence either, and that matters too.

Along with the free DRF "race of the day" PPs in the link above, there are also PPs for the Fountain of Youth available without charge from Equibase here: http://www.equibase.com/content/rotw/fullpp.pdf ...and BRIS PPs for the race can be had through a link on this page: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.htm

There's just so much speed in the race. It sets up perfectly for Good Magic. I'm not in the mood for 4-5. I'll pick Gotta Go and Storm Runner in an exacta box with Good Magic.

Quote: Keeneone

...Gulfstream 3/3 Race #11 - #1 Personal Time (I have mentioned him previously)...

I also find him interesting. By Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy) out of an Unbridled dam, 7.3 AWD. He reminds me of Orb in a bunch of different ways. Janney & Phipps Stable homebred, so trained by Shug McGaughey of course. After running a flash and fade race, left the gate with an awkward break and reserved behind the field then made a wide sweeping late move and exploded in the stretch racing with first time Lasix, followed by an evenly spaced series of sizzling works for a trainer who doesn't usually push them to melt the stopwatch in the morning.

The winner breaking his maiden in that race was a Pletcher/Velasquez even money shot who went for $725,000 in the Keeneland September yearling sale, and when finishing 2nd with an excellent speed figure this one was four lengths clear of the rest of the field while starting to get to the winner near the wire. On the other hand, those were some very hot fractions being set in front of him in that Jan. 27 race.

In general, especially with young developing horses over a distance of ground, sudden big improvement with 1st time Lasix + confirmation in work pattern = I wanna bet ya.



He needs to graduate TODAY to realistically be on a path toward the feature race at Churchill on May 5th.

Good stuff DD.
Free Drop Billy has scratched from the FOY. Good Magic's odds will now be even lower, but he is the one to beat.
About Personal Time... After that race his Derby odds plummeted to 50/1. He still has yet to win but today could be the day around 2 turns. We also get to compare the winner's time to the FOY a few hours later.

Quote: DrawingDead

(Personal Time) needs to graduate TODAY to realistically be on a path toward the feature race at Churchill on May 5th.

Pfffft. No cap and gown for you, Mr. Time. I think he's an excellent candidate for blinkers, unless he wants a career as a professional maiden.

Quote: DrawingDead

Pfffft. No cap and gown for you, Mr. Time. I think he's an excellent candidate for blinkers, unless he wants a career as a professional maiden.

What a disappointing race from PT. Way to far back into a slow pace.
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FOY - Another merry-go-round Derby prep. The son of Shackleford (Promises Fulfilled) stole it on the front end just like his daddy used to. Seemed like a very slow event (which IIRC has happened before in GS preps). It was still a second faster than Race #11 (3yo race earlier in the day at the same distance). Video:



Bravazo and Promises Fulfilled lead the Kentucky Derby Points Standings. WOW!