Coronavirus math
Quote: rxwineGranted, but following other prevention methods available would mean less need. People tested more when they refused the vaccine to do ordinary activities.in many places
There's also going to be less need for things like monoclonal antibodies if some people don't get sick enough. Although Government pays for both, currently in the US, vaccines cost = $37 per shot, antibodies = $3000 to $5000 per treatment.
If people don't want to do the recommended things for prevention, fine. But it's been explained over and over.
If people don't want to do what's been recommended,then so be it.
link to original post
It seems that all forms of the media through a 24/7 news blitz are fanning the flames of hysteria. Mile long lines of folks waiting to be tested for, IMO, no good reason because they are not experiencing any symptoms. Reasonableness has gone away, and a sort of panic is embedded in the general populace.
Vaccine defined by Webster is "any preparation introduced into the body to produce IMMUNITY (emphasis) to a specific disease." I have heard our current "vaccine" described as an "experimental health supplement." The reason is simply the fact of reinfection, "breakthrough" cases, and lots of ineffective occurrences as opposed to
vaccines for polio, smallpox, measles, mumps, etc. which have actually supplied real immunity. IMO what we are using ultimately is good but apparently not the final answer. More work needs to be and is being done.
tuttigym
Many newspapers often have research scientists, physicians and other highly qualified sources on staff or easily available on short notice. As opposed to the vast majority of sourceless hooey printed here.Quote: rsactuaryThe Wall Street Journal does not have any sort of degree in science.
P.S. To insult someone as a "racist,' is it not essential to know the ethnicity of the target? Or do such allegations just fly around these days?
Quote: tuttigym
It seems that all forms of the media through a 24/7 news blitz are fanning the flames of hysteria. Mile long lines of folks waiting to be tested for, IMO, no good reason because they are not experiencing any symptoms. Reasonableness has gone away, and a sort of panic is embedded in the general populace.
Certain people want to be panicked. In the late 1990s Rush Limbaugh had a story about how people were all panicking over an el Nino winter. Thought their roofs would be blown off their homes, the works. He pointed out how they had them all their lives, every whatever years, with no issue. But the news was saying it was coming so panic they did.
IMHO it is a part of the human brain that has to be reacting. If your life is mostly safe you panic more at something because that part of the brain has to be working. If you have other things in life to worry about your brain is already has that part functioning so you are more level-headed.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: GundyI've never had a mask on my face. Not even once.
Covid free. What are the odds?
link to original post
I estimate I’ve worn a mask for 70,000 hours. But seriously, where do you live that you didn’t have to wear one in grocery, pharmacy, doctor’s office, airport, post office, casino, etc?
link to original post
I live in SWFL. Not required at the grocery, pharmacy, post office, casino, and on. I did get 2 Moderna jabs and was mask free.
I haven't been to the airport or a doc. Pretty sure I've been everywhere else.
Quote: tuttigymQuote: rxwineGranted, but following other prevention methods available would mean less need. People tested more when they refused the vaccine to do ordinary activities.in many places
There's also going to be less need for things like monoclonal antibodies if some people don't get sick enough. Although Government pays for both, currently in the US, vaccines cost = $37 per shot, antibodies = $3000 to $5000 per treatment.
If people don't want to do the recommended things for prevention, fine. But it's been explained over and over.
If people don't want to do what's been recommended,then so be it.
link to original post
It seems that all forms of the media through a 24/7 news blitz are fanning the flames of hysteria. Mile long lines of folks waiting to be tested for, IMO, no good reason because they are not experiencing any symptoms. Reasonableness has gone away, and a sort of panic is embedded in the general populace.
Vaccine defined by Webster is "any preparation introduced into the body to produce IMMUNITY (emphasis) to a specific disease." I have heard our current "vaccine" described as an "experimental health supplement." The reason is simply the fact of reinfection, "breakthrough" cases, and lots of ineffective occurrences as opposed to
vaccines for polio, smallpox, measles, mumps, etc. which have actually supplied real immunity. IMO what we are using ultimately is good but apparently not the final answer. More work needs to be and is being done.
tuttigym
link to original post
Immune systems vary, so it's near impossible to get 100% effective no matter what is designed with millions of people involved. After all, a new variant will keep throwing a wrench in that goal. If you can keep a virus isolated enough, you might achieve a full stop. I suspect Measles vaccine will always be pretty good, because most people get worked up about children/babies and won't tolerate people running amok very long infecting their kids. Seems one baby dying with measles is tolerated less than a couple thousand adults with covid
Quote: billryanI just watched Don't Look Up. I don't think I've met most of the deniers here, but after the movie I can visualize many of them.
link to original post
I assume you're saying that all of the deniers here have movie actor looks. Because, as you have claimed after being suspended for trolling, you are unaware of making any mean and insulting posts.
And Hollywood movies are not a valid way to learn about reality.
Quote: ChumpChangeI'm about two minutes in to Don't Look Up and earlier today there was a news opinion outlet that described how it's supposed to be a lampoon of the media and government. Maybe I should watch Bird Box again, idk.
link to original post
It was an okay movie. It poked fun at the vapid media, the clueless government, science deniers and those who worship science, as well as social media tycoons, all while telling a serious story. I don't know who was behind it, but they put together an incredible cast.
I think it would have made a better series or mini-series.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: billryanI just watched Don't Look Up. I don't think I've met most of the deniers here, but after the movie I can visualize many of them.
link to original post
I assume you're saying that all of the deniers here have movie actor looks. Because, as you have claimed after being suspended for trolling, you are unaware of making any mean and insulting posts.
And Hollywood movies are not a valid way to learn about reality.
link to original post
I don't think saying I visualize a character or actor when reading someones post is insulting. Nor do I see as mean. Pleas don't bring disharmony into my safe space.
Quote: ChumpChange"The end is near...will there be a Superbowl?" - Magazine cover from the movie
link to original post
"Cancel the Superbowl? That's like canceling Christmas."
Joe Robbie as himself in "Black Sunday"
"Covid: Workplaces told to plan for absences of up to 25%"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59848109
Quote: BBCThe UK has seen record numbers of daily cases over the festive period.
Transport, the NHS and schools have already seen the effect of absences.
Rising case numbers have led to large numbers self-isolating and being unable to go to work. This has particularly affected industries where staff are unable to work from home......
People who test positive for Covid must self-isolate for at least seven days in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Two negative lateral flow results, 24-hours apart, are required to end self-isolation - the first no earlier than day six.
Unvaccinated contacts of positive cases must also isolate for 10 days in all parts of the UK.
So, Our Hospitals are not only being hit by more going in with covid... But also by far less medical staff being available to treat them.
With 1 in 45 or so of us currently infected at any one instant, and with, say, 7 days sick absence or quarantine, that implies 1 in (45/7) or about 1 in 6.5 of employees absent at any one day.
So.... What's the answer? Expect the infected to drag themselves into work?
I'm not offended by the Chicken Little reference. It raises a fair point.Quote: DeMangoThe sky is falling! The sky is falling!
link to original post
I've re-read the Chicken Little / Chicken Licken fable from a few sites. In most endings she and her friends were eaten by Foxey Loxey. Fables could be a bit harsh back in the days before political correctness.
The fable of Chicken Little teaches children that doomsayers are not always right. One needs to keep a cool head and judge things for oneself......
But there must surely be a counter fable that teaches children the value of situational awareness and risk management ???
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henny_Penny
"I'm not paranoid. It's a vicious rumour spread by those who are out to get me" $;o)
Quote: OnceDear
So.... What's the answer? Expect the infected to drag themselves into work?
link to original post
A start would be quit firing unvaxed staff.
Not a bad answer: But since this thread is about maths, do you have any numbers to compare count of those fired or suspended, vs those who are currently off sick? Maybe we could do some modelling of how many more might end up off sick after the unvaxed get back in work.Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: OnceDear
So.... What's the answer? Expect the infected to drag themselves into work?
link to original post
A start would be quit firing unvaxed staff.
link to original post
Quote: OnceDearNot a bad answer: But since this thread is about maths, do you have any numbers to compare count of those fired or suspended, vs those who are currently off sick? Maybe we could do some modelling of how many more might end up off sick after the unvaxed get back in work.Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: OnceDear
So.... What's the answer? Expect the infected to drag themselves into work?
link to original post
A start would be quit firing unvaxed staff.
link to original post
link to original post
Don't have the math, just the anecdotal. But if someone already has it how would an unvaxed person be a threat.
Meanwhile I feel like garbage this morning but do not think it is the virus if it is it is another mild case.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: OnceDearNot a bad answer: But since this thread is about maths, do you have any numbers to compare count of those fired or suspended, vs those who are currently off sick? Maybe we could do some modelling of how many more might end up off sick after the unvaxed get back in work.
link to original post
Don't have the math, just the anecdotal. But if someone already has it how would an unvaxed person be a threat.
Meanwhile I feel like garbage this morning but do not think it is the virus if it is it is another mild case.
link to original post
Every potentially infected person is a threat, vaxxed or unvaxxed.. And IF the unvaxed are more likely to be symptomatic and infectious, I'd hate to be served by them.
"Another Mild Case"?
Sorry to hear you are unwell again. Did you not have an unspecified respiratory infection about two months ago? You were reluctant to get tested then and you returned to work?. I guess you still are reluctant to get tested and see no value in knowing if you are infectious?
It seems that if the all knowing founding fathers didn't think that we all had the right to infect anyone of our choice, they'd have mentioned it.
If they were okay with giving small pox infected blankets to the Indians, why would they be opposed to someone spreading a sore throat?
We didn't shut down the economy when Hitler invaded Pearl Harbor, did we?
Nor when The Mets won the World Series? A bunch of snowflakes get bent out of shape because 800,000 people die and suddenly I can't get together with thousands of strangers to do what men do with thousands of strangers?
Freedom Now! Until we all are free to infect all, are we really free?
Hi Bill,Quote: billryanHas the Supreme Court ever decided if my right to be an idiot supersedes your right not to be infected?
It seems that if the all knowing founding fathers didn't think that we all had the right to infect anyone of our choice, they'd have mentioned it.
If they were okay with giving small pox infected blankets to the Indians, why would they be opposed to someone spreading a sore throat?
We didn't shut down the economy when Hitler invaded Pearl Harbor, did we?
Nor when The Mets won the World Series? A bunch of snowflakes get bent out of shape because 800,000 people die and suddenly I can't get together with thousands of strangers to do what men do with thousands of strangers?
Freedom Now! Until we all are free to infect all, are we really free?
link to original post
Let's both bear in mind that this thread is dangerously close to being a controversial topic. We post here at some risk. If we can involve numbers and math, we may survive. $:o)
Loving the joke about Hitler invading Pearl Harbour. Some of the rest was too subtle for me, but I recognise it as humour.
Quote: OnceDearQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: OnceDearNot a bad answer: But since this thread is about maths, do you have any numbers to compare count of those fired or suspended, vs those who are currently off sick? Maybe we could do some modelling of how many more might end up off sick after the unvaxed get back in work.
link to original post
Don't have the math, just the anecdotal. But if someone already has it how would an unvaxed person be a threat.
Meanwhile I feel like garbage this morning but do not think it is the virus if it is it is another mild case.
link to original post
Every potentially infected person is a threat, vaxxed or unvaxxed.. And IF the unvaxed are more likely to be symptomatic and infectious, I'd hate to be served by them.
"Another Mild Case"?
Sorry to hear you are unwell again. Did you not have an unspecified respiratory infection about two months ago? You were reluctant to get tested then and you returned to work?. I guess you still are reluctant to get tested and see no value in knowing if you are infectious?
link to original post
At the moment it feels like a cold, same as last time. No, I do not see value in waiting in a line of 200 cars vs. just getting over it at home.
Quote: OnceDearLet's both bear in mind that this thread is dangerously close to being a controversial topic. We post here at some risk. If we can involve numbers and math, we may survive. $:o)
Loving the joke about Hitler invading Pearl Harbour. Some of the rest was too subtle for me, but I recognise it as humour.
link to original post
Are you sure it was a "joke'? The Mets line wasn't.
So, the math.... hundreds of thousands attending bowl games, New Year's parties, and New Year's celebrations mostly in close quarters. Accordingly, there should be hospitals and morgues flooding with humanity. The next ten days might give us a better picture.
While our media concentrate on the domestic situation with their hysterical "reporting," how are countries like Afganistan, Iran, Iraq, the African continent, and the central South American countries faring? It seems that only the "civilized" world remains constantly infected, hospitalized, tested, and/or dead. Remarkable!
tuttigym
Today people wake up and feel fine, but they'll wait in line for four hours because they're terrified that they may get the sniffles.
Times have changed.
Quote: GundyOnce upon a time people would get the sniffles and continue with their day.
Today people wake up and feel fine, but they'll wait in line for four hours because they're terrified that they may get the sniffles.
Times have changed.
I just hate when people minimize the health of other people they know nothing about like this. There are a multitude of medical conditions and medications that people are on (suppressing immune systems as a treatment) that place them at greater risk for outcomes other than just the "sniffles". And if any of these people, vaccinated or not, myself included, were to catch any of the variants, including omicron, there are now new treatments that can provide them with far better outcomes. But those treatments HAVE to be started early within 3-4 days of symptoms, and before symptoms become severe...thus the need for early testing.
And I am not just talking about death but for people compromised by any variety of things, which a great number of our population is, these early treatments can also be the difference between, a very mild illness and an illness or condition that damages lungs or other organs long-term or possible permanently.
So why people like you want to minimize and mock people at higher risk for being pro-active with their health is really beyond me at this point. Feel free to make your own decisions but allow people at higher risk to make decisions as to what is best for them, without minimalizing it.
Well, 10 days might reveal some increase in infections, but give it month for the the morgues to start backing up. We can hope not.Quote: tuttigym
So, the math.... hundreds of thousands attending bowl games, New Year's parties, and New Year's celebrations mostly in close quarters. Accordingly, there should be hospitals and morgues flooding with humanity. The next ten days might give us a better picture.
While our media concentrate on the domestic situation with their hysterical "reporting," how are countries like Afganistan, Iran, Iraq, the African continent, and the central South American countries faring? It seems that only the "civilized" world remains constantly infected, hospitalized, tested, and/or dead. Remarkable!
tuttigym
link to original post
There are plenty of sources of international stats and news.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Not all nations report honestly.
Quote: OnceDear. But also by far less medical staff being available to treat them.
link to original post
Essentially, unstaffed.
Quote:Patients in understaffed facilities face an increased rate of in-hospital mortality, a higher risk of infection, a rise in postoperative complications,
Quote: OnceDearWell, 10 days might reveal some increase in infections, but give it month for the the morgues to start backing up. We can hope not.Quote: tuttigym
So, the math.... hundreds of thousands attending bowl games, New Year's parties, and New Year's celebrations mostly in close quarters. Accordingly, there should be hospitals and morgues flooding with humanity. The next ten days might give us a better picture.
While our media concentrate on the domestic situation with their hysterical "reporting," how are countries like Afganistan, Iran, Iraq, the African continent, and the central South American countries faring? It seems that only the "civilized" world remains constantly infected, hospitalized, tested, and/or dead. Remarkable!
tuttigym
link to original post
There are plenty of sources of international stats and news.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Not all nations report honestly.
link to original post
We seem to beyond doubt be proving that the "suprespreader" events are not. Full stadiums, full casinos, Sturgis rally, people out without masks and we are not seeing the predicted disasters. You have the same masker crowd lining up 200 cars deep to be tested. Always going to have that segment.
- my pregnant daughter and her husband, both out of state, and both vaxxed by J&J vaccine. Surprisingly, their unvaxxed 3-yr old son has tested negative. They both had a fever of about 100 degrees for less than 12 hours but are still feeling fatigued.
- a vaxxed niece (Pfizer) in her late 20s who lives close to us. She has had mild symotoms and is not making a big deal about it.
- an unvaxxed sister-in-law who has had no recent contact with any of my other infected relatives. She has had a fever for about 36 hours but is reportedly feeling better.
This infections arose from three different unrelated exposures, so I'm impressed at how fast this is spreading. In fact, I sincerely question whetheer any countermeasures short of total isolation is going to protect any of us from being infected by Omicron. But, its also fair to say that these immediate experiences with Omicron appear to all have been trivial/minor health issues. .
Quote: SOOPOOFuture daughter in law. Best friends son. Wife’s niece. All pretty recent. Agree that barring virtual total isolation, you are going to get it.
Yep, spreading like wildfire. Everyone will get it. I am not even sure that is a bad thing.
I am not isolating, but I am choosing not to put myself in the riskiest situation at the moment and for me that includes blackjack tables in casinos. I am not trying to avoid getting covid (which would be my 3rd round), I just prefer not to get it while hospital and medical personnel are over run, which every expert says will be the case for the next couple weeks.
I can afford to avoid casinos and blackjack tables for a few weeks. I still go out and do things, just avoid crowed indoor places for the moment. If I was a different kind of AP, machine play or something, it would be different, but I just am not anxious to be at a blackjack table a foot away from other people breathing on me at this exact moment.
tuttigym
Quote: SOOPOOAgree that barring virtual total isolation, you are going to get it.
link to original post
IMO you are very wrong; millions have natural immunity otherwise the numbers worldwide would show a geometric progression that would inundate the planet.
tuttigym
IMO, You, tuttygym are most wrong.Quote: tuttigymQuote: SOOPOOAgree that barring virtual total isolation, you are going to get it.
link to original post
IMO you are very wrong; millions have natural immunity otherwise the numbers worldwide would show a geometric progression that would inundate the planet.
tuttigym
link to original post
Firstly, "millions" would need to be hundreds of millions for it to influence the global trend. You seem to be thinking to the wrong scale. Exponential growth is only good for the interval where there is a huge reservoir of potential victims. Growth rate tales off as herd immunity arrives. We are a way off of that, yet.
Secondly, what do you mean by natural immunity? The normal way to get Natural Immunity is to catch the virus and recover from it. You seem to imply that millions have natural immunity out of nowhere? and that those people don't ever count as infected.
https://www.citizensjournal.us/johns-hopkins-medical-prof-explains-natural-covid-immunity-is-very-strong/
The world would not be 'Inundated' if most, say 90% of us eventually get it as SooPoo said... just not all at the same time. If we all got it, AND we paced ourselves AND infection gave immunity against reinfection, then it would all be over soon enough. BUT, we are not pacing ourselves very well and health services ARE getting inundated and infection is not giving complete immunity to reinfection.
I mostly agree with Soopoo in that most of us who are socially active, will get it, have it, and recover from it, until it is mostly not a big deal. Once that has happened, the less socially active will have less people to catch it from, because that's how herd immunity works.
Lots of lovely graphical simulations here. They are old news, but some might have missed or forgotten them. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/coronavirus-how-epidemics-spread-and-end/?tid=graphics-story
Quote: OnceDear
Secondly, what do you mean by natural immunity? The normal way to get Natural Immunity is to catch the virus and recover from it. You seem to imply that millions have natural immunity out of nowhere? and that those people don't ever count as infected.
https://www.citizensjournal.us/johns-hopkins-medical-prof-explains-natural-covid-immunity-is-very-strong/
Some people have natural immunity to certain things. Other people are more likely to catch it. Examples?
Some people will not break out when exposed to poison ivy.
Blacks get sickle cell anemia, no other race is prone to it.
Lactose intolerance is out there for pretty much everyone not of European decent.
For the virus we have seen a few things. Type O blood seems to be more resistant and Type A less.
All of the above are "born-in" things, not behavioral. So yes, likely millions to hundreds of millions with some kind of immunity.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: OnceDear
Secondly, what do you mean by natural immunity? The normal way to get Natural Immunity is to catch the virus and recover from it. You seem to imply that millions have natural immunity out of nowhere? and that those people don't ever count as infected.
https://www.citizensjournal.us/johns-hopkins-medical-prof-explains-natural-covid-immunity-is-very-strong/
Some people have natural immunity to certain things. Other people are more likely to catch it. Examples?
Some people will not break out when exposed to poison ivy.
Blacks get sickle cell anemia, no other race is prone to it.
Lactose intolerance is out there for pretty much everyone not of European decent.
For the virus we have seen a few things. Type O blood seems to be more resistant and Type A less.
All of the above are "born-in" things, not behavioral. So yes, likely millions to hundreds of millions with some kind of immunity.
link to original post
I think a better term to go googling with is 'genetic immunity' because natural immunity is normally associated with pre-infection.
I'm unsure how significant the proportion of genetically lresistant population is. I'm inclined to think negligible/insignificant, compared to pre-infected immune, until someone comes up with stats.
https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2021/11/09/a-lucky-segment-of-the-population-is-genetically-immune-from-the-covid-virus-what-can-we-learn-from-them/
https://futurism.com/neoscope/people-genetically-immune-covid
Quote: OnceDearQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: OnceDear
Secondly, what do you mean by natural immunity? The normal way to get Natural Immunity is to catch the virus and recover from it. You seem to imply that millions have natural immunity out of nowhere? and that those people don't ever count as infected.
https://www.citizensjournal.us/johns-hopkins-medical-prof-explains-natural-covid-immunity-is-very-strong/
Some people have natural immunity to certain things. Other people are more likely to catch it. Examples?
Some people will not break out when exposed to poison ivy.
Blacks get sickle cell anemia, no other race is prone to it.
Lactose intolerance is out there for pretty much everyone not of European decent.
For the virus we have seen a few things. Type O blood seems to be more resistant and Type A less.
All of the above are "born-in" things, not behavioral. So yes, likely millions to hundreds of millions with some kind of immunity.
link to original post
I think a better term to go googling with is 'genetic immunity' because natural immunity is normally associated with pre-infection.
I'm unsure how significant the proportion of genetically lresistant population is. I'm inclined to think negligible/insignificant, compared to pre-infected immune, until someone comes up with stats.
https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2021/11/09/a-lucky-segment-of-the-population-is-genetically-immune-from-the-covid-virus-what-can-we-learn-from-them/
https://futurism.com/neoscope/people-genetically-immune-covid
link to original post
Fine by me, I am not hung up on the term. But the article has a good point about people dying out and natural selection taking over. At the opening of the new world the Indians did not just not die of smallpox because none had it and were immune, it was also all those generations of it having been handed down the Europeans had and they did not.
While this would take thousands of years to be a normal thing not the exception the point is it is out there.
Not hung up on the term either, just thought I'd mention how I got sense out of google.Quote: AZDuffman
Fine by me, I am not hung up on the term. But the article has a good point about people dying out and natural selection taking over. At the opening of the new world the Indians did not just not die of smallpox because none had it and were immune, it was also all those generations of it having been handed down the Europeans had and they did not.
While this would take thousands of years to be a normal thing not the exception the point is it is out there.
link to original post
Did generations of Europeans REALLY have inherited immunity from smallpox? I'll wager if europeans then or now were given clothes from smallpox victims, they too would have dropped like flies. One thing the europeans had handed down to them was the advice to stay the hell away from people with smallpox symptoms. The poor old native americans had never heard of quarantine and generally did not understand or believe in person to person infection at all. (Sounds familiar)
https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/early-america-review/volume-11/native-americans-smallpox
"many Native Americans did not believe that disease was transmitted between individuals. Instead, they ascribed disease to supernatural forces."
Quote: OnceDearNot hung up on the term either, just thought I'd mention how I got sense out of google.Quote: AZDuffman
Fine by me, I am not hung up on the term. But the article has a good point about people dying out and natural selection taking over. At the opening of the new world the Indians did not just not die of smallpox because none had it and were immune, it was also all those generations of it having been handed down the Europeans had and they did not.
While this would take thousands of years to be a normal thing not the exception the point is it is out there.
link to original post
Did generations of Europeans REALLY have inherited immunity from smallpox? I'll wager if europeans then or now were given clothes from smallpox victims, they too would have dropped like flies. One thing the europeans had handed down to them was the advice to stay the hell away from people with smallpox symptoms. The poor old native americans had never heard of quarantine and generally did not understand or believe in person to person infection at all. (Sounds familiar)
https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/early-america-review/volume-11/native-americans-smallpox
"many Native Americans did not believe that disease was transmitted between individuals. Instead, they ascribed disease to supernatural forces."
link to original post
Immunity? Maybe or maybe not. As to infected clothes, most Indians who died of it never laid eyes on a European. That it tore thru Indian tribes at rates far above how it infected Europe at the time is reason enough to believe Europeans had more resistance to it. IIRC Africans had more resistance than Europeans to it but I could be wrong there.
Quote: OnceDearQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: OnceDear
Secondly, what do you mean by natural immunity? The normal way to get Natural Immunity is to catch the virus and recover from it. You seem to imply that millions have natural immunity out of nowhere? and that those people don't ever count as infected.
https://www.citizensjournal.us/johns-hopkins-medical-prof-explains-natural-covid-immunity-is-very-strong/
Some people have natural immunity to certain things. Other people are more likely to catch it. Examples?
Some people will not break out when exposed to poison ivy.
Blacks get sickle cell anemia, no other race is prone to it.
Lactose intolerance is out there for pretty much everyone not of European decent.
For the virus we have seen a few things. Type O blood seems to be more resistant and Type A less.
All of the above are "born-in" things, not behavioral. So yes, likely millions to hundreds of millions with some kind of immunity.
link to original post
I think a better term to go googling with is 'genetic immunity' because natural immunity is normally associated with pre-infection.
I'm unsure how significant the proportion of genetically lresistant population is. I'm inclined to think negligible/insignificant, compared to pre-infected immune, until someone comes up with stats.
https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2021/11/09/a-lucky-segment-of-the-population-is-genetically-immune-from-the-covid-virus-what-can-we-learn-from-them/
https://futurism.com/neoscope/people-genetically-immune-covid
link to original post
Results of a simple search for proportion of U.S. population:
PolitiFact | Nearly half US might have ‘natural immunity ...
Oct 12, 2021 · Dr. Eric Topol, director and founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, told PolitiFact he estimates that 40% of the U.S. population has natural immunity. A study led by a Yale...
nypost.com › 2021/09/12 › the-us-is-nearing-immunityThe US is nearing immunity from COVID-19
Sep 12, 2021 · Applying the 2.1 multiple from the blood donation study to the entire population results in a real number of cases and people with natural immunity of 84 million, or 25 percent of the population....
Author: Joel Zinberg
www.cnbc.com › 2021/09/27 › covid-gottlieb-says-90Covid: Gottlieb says 90% of Americans may have immunity post ...
Sep 27, 2021 · Dr. Gottlieb: Up to 90% of Americans may have Covid immunity after delta wave Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday he believes up to 90% of U.S. residents will have some form of...
udumbara.net › is-natural-immunity-more-effectiveIs Natural Immunity More Effective Than the COVID-19 Shot ...
Jan 03, 2022 · “By mid-February 2021, an estimated 150 million people in the U.S. (30 million times five) may have had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. By April, I estimated the natural immunity rate to be above 55% in 10 states: Arizona, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, and Wisconsin.
www.statesman.com › story › newsNearly half US might have ‘natural immunity’ from COVID-19 ...
Oct 14, 2021 · Dr. Eric Topol, director and founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, told PolitiFact he estimates that 40% of the U.S. population has natural immunity. A
Quote: OnceDearYou, tuttygym are most wrong. Firstly, "millions" would need to be hundreds of millions for it to influence the global trend. You seem to be thinking to the wrong scale. Exponential growth is only good for the interval where there is a huge reservoir of potential victims. Growth rate tales off as herd immunity arrives. We are a way off of that, yet.
OK have it your way then - hundreds of millions have "natural" immunity as has been shown in subsequent posts. What is the world's population? 5-6 billion+? The total infected count is what 55+ million? That is almost a rounding error.
Quote: OnceDearSecondly, what do you mean by natural immunity? The normal way to get Natural Immunity is to catch the virus and recover from it.
Read the subsequent posts. I have natural immunity. I do not catch colds or get sick with any kind of regularity, and there are hundreds of millions out there like me. It is called genetics. So no, "out of nowhere"? I just picked the right parents.
Quote: OnceDearThe world would not be 'Inundated' if most, say 90% of us eventually get it as SooPoo said... just not all at the same time. If we all got it, AND we paced ourselves AND infection gave immunity against reinfection, then it would all be over soon enough. BUT, we are not pacing ourselves very well and health services ARE getting inundated and infection is not giving complete immunity to reinfection.
I mostly agree with Soopoo in that most of us who are socially active, will get it, have it, and recover from it, until it is mostly not a big deal. Once that has happened, the less socially active will have less people to catch it from, because that's how herd immunity works.
Your far-reaching analysis and agreement with SOOPOO is off by several billion as of today and is unlikely to become reality tomorrow.
tuttigym
p.s. Thanks to those of you who's subsequent posts might have provided enlightenment and clarity.
However, hospitalizations for minors are up 40% from last week and have more than doubled since December 1st. With this rise in kids ending up in the hospital, you would think there would be prevention protocols in place. School districts have been told not to require negative tests from students or employees, are forbidden by the Governors Executive Order from requiring masks and there is no requirement for parents to keep sick kids home, let alone kids who have been exposed.
| Location | Jan-2021 | Jan-2022 |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 12.2 | 19.4 |
| NV | 17.0 | 45.7 |
| NJ | 9.2 | 101.6 |
| MS | 100.0 | 30.4 |
JohnsHopkins notes that NJ uses a ratio of "total tests" and "total persons tested" that could have resulted in some individuals receiving more than one test. I have no other explanation for NJ's high data value.
A more important question is whether the gaming community's unhappy holiday surprise is about 2 weeks away.
One day, one of you might be one of the few living people of these last two years, and whatever you believe or don’t believe about the virus at least tell the snot-nosed kids of that era, that it was a big freakin hassle and not worth going through again. (Unless you don’t even believe that much, but I hope you do)
Quote: rxwineRegardless of how this started, i sure hope all countries improve and take seriously infectious disease standards to keep a tighter rein on sources and practices so we can not do this again.
One day, one of you might be one of the few living people of these last two years, and whatever you believe or don’t believe about the virus at least tell the snot-nosed kids of that era, that it was a big freakin hassle and not worth going through again. (Unless you don’t even believe that much, but I hope you do)
link to original post
I will tell them it was a big hassle. It has been.
I will tell them I was very concerned with what it turned people to. It has been scary.
I will tell them that much of the "response" turned out to have been a waste of time.
