Coronavirus math

To me at least part of the problem with controlling the spread of the virus in New York and in the rest of the country is that we missed the whole beginning of the outbreak. Everyone felt reassured that there were very few cases because there was no testing available. On March 1st, New York reported only one case of coronavirus, but looking at the 114 of new fatalities from the virus reported on 3/24, the actual number of people infected in New York on March 1st was actually quite a bit higher.
It takes on average 5 days from exposure to the virus to develop symptoms of being infected. If you become infected with the virus, the chance of you dying is between .5% and 1.0% and that will take place on average 19 days later. So for 114 people to die on March 24th from the virus, somewhere between 11,400 and 22,800 people were infected with the virus on March 1st in New York.
114/.005=22,800 114/.01=11,400
Is it possible that these numbers are close to the truth?
Thanks

Based on government figures, the death rate looks to be about 1.4% of the infected as of yesterday. It's very fluid so I'd use a pencil when writing these things.
Queens , NY is starting to get attention as 13 people died in one hospital in a little over 24 hours. Two of my friends were in that very hospital but were transferred to a different one.

Thanks for the information. I'm using the mortality rates from countries like China were the disease at least at this phase has already played through, but even using a 2% mortality rate would mean that 5,700 were infected at a time New York State was officially reporting only one infection. That's a huge difference.

237 US deaths today, and there is still many hours to go.

Quote: billryan

237 US deaths today, and there is still many hours to go.

The US now leads the world in COVID cases. Once again America is great...at something.

Quote: GDBONES

To me at least part of the problem with controlling the spread of the virus in New York and in the rest of the country is that we missed the whole beginning of the outbreak. Everyone felt reassured that there were very few cases because there was no testing available. On March 1st, New York reported only one case of coronavirus, but looking at the 114 of new fatalities from the virus reported on 3/24, the actual number of people infected in New York on March 1st was actually quite a bit higher.
It takes on average 5 days from exposure to the virus to develop symptoms of being infected. If you become infected with the virus, the chance of you dying is between .5% and 1.0% and that will take place on average 19 days later. So for 114 people to die on March 24th from the virus, somewhere between 11,400 and 22,800 people were infected with the virus on March 1st in New York.
114/.005=22,800 114/.01=11,400
Is it possible that these numbers are close to the truth?
Thanks

This sure makes you consider how many people have already had and either died/recovered from undocumented COVID, let's call it "pre-USA-outbreak", during the original cold/flu season this year? Perhaps entire families and other cohorts have been exposed, shared, experienced signs/symptoms and recovered, essentially decreasing the "true-count" (lol, had to refer to gambling) or the "true death rate/count". I recall myself and several friends/family close to me being TOTALLY wiped out by 'something' from a time frame of Christmas Eve through the end of February, during REGULAR flu season. Specifically, I rode the couch HARD for about 3 days, right up to the time I left to go on a 3-4 day work trip in mid-Feb sometime. But I stayed my ass home, didn't go see a physician, drank my OJ and fluids, medicated, laid low, and I kicked it within about a week, which for me is a LONG ILLNESS. For those of you who know me, I'm generally speaking a young and healthy individual with a strong immune system. I'm the "basically have to be next to dying to see the doctor" kind of guy. But I can tell you what I didn't do during that time... go see my elderly grandparents, or visit with friends. I stayed in, and protected myself and got better. I know I'm not the first to think this, but perhaps this ENTIRE issue could have been avoided with just normal, healthy sanitary behaviors? How many times do we as casino-goers and airport-frequenters see folks (esp. Men) leave the restroom without washing their hands at all? Daily...

Sorry, this got more rambly than I meant for it to be. Be well.

-Bruce

Quote: Bruce1

This sure makes you consider how many people have already had and either died/recovered from undocumented COVID, let's call it "pre-USA-outbreak", during the original cold/flu season this year? Perhaps entire families and other cohorts have been exposed, shared, experienced signs/symptoms and recovered, essentially decreasing the "true-count" (lol, had to refer to gambling) or the "true death rate/count". I recall myself and several friends/family close to me being TOTALLY wiped out by 'something' from a time frame of Christmas Eve through the end of February, during REGULAR flu season. Specifically, I rode the couch HARD for about 3 days, right up to the time I left to go on a 3-4 day work trip in mid-Feb sometime. But I stayed my ass home, didn't go see a physician, drank my OJ and fluids, medicated, laid low, and I kicked it within about a week, which for me is a LONG ILLNESS. For those of you who know me, I'm generally speaking a young and healthy individual with a strong immune system. I'm the "basically have to be next to dying to see the doctor" kind of guy. But I can tell you what I didn't do during that time... go see my elderly grandparents, or visit with friends. I stayed in, and protected myself and got better. I know I'm not the first to think this, but perhaps this ENTIRE issue could have been avoided with just normal, healthy sanitary behaviors? How many times do we as casino-goers and airport-frequenters see folks (esp. Men) leave the restroom without washing their hands at all? Daily...

Sorry, this got more rambly than I meant for it to be. Be well.

-Bruce

I think my whole family and friends network had that. Same time frame this past January - starts first night with vomiting and headache. Total lethargy.

After 2nd day small improvement. Third day is finally on road to recovery

That it?

Quote: Bruce1

This sure makes you consider how many people have already had and either died/recovered from undocumented COVID, let's call it "pre-USA-outbreak", during the original cold/flu season this year? Perhaps entire families and other cohorts have been exposed, shared, experienced signs/symptoms and recovered, essentially decreasing the "true-count" (lol, had to refer to gambling) or the "true death rate/count". I recall myself and several friends/family close to me being TOTALLY wiped out by 'something' from a time frame of Christmas Eve through the end of February, during REGULAR flu season. Specifically, I rode the couch HARD for about 3 days, right up to the time I left to go on a 3-4 day work trip in mid-Feb sometime. But I stayed my ass home, didn't go see a physician, drank my OJ and fluids, medicated, laid low, and I kicked it within about a week, which for me is a LONG ILLNESS. For those of you who know me, I'm generally speaking a young and healthy individual with a strong immune system. I'm the "basically have to be next to dying to see the doctor" kind of guy. But I can tell you what I didn't do during that time... go see my elderly grandparents, or visit with friends. I stayed in, and protected myself and got better. I know I'm not the first to think this, but perhaps this ENTIRE issue could have been avoided with just normal, healthy sanitary behaviors? How many times do we as casino-goers and airport-frequenters see folks (esp. Men) leave the restroom without washing their hands at all? Daily...

Sorry, this got more rambly than I meant for it to be. Be well.

-Bruce

Where there is smoke, there is fire. However, based on not seeing all kinds of deaths around us, it wasn't here. We're all hopeful we already have had it, but we didn't.

Nope, no nausea/vomiting, mostly just cough, PND, congestion, severe headache, overall malaise. Probably the worst 'seasonal illness', call it what you want, in the adult portion of my life. I was HARD out of commission for a SOLID 3 days, the following 3 weren't fun, but tolerable. This is mostly irrelevant to the point of my comment though, regarding the "un-accounted for COVID patients".

Quote: Bruce1

Nope, no nausea/vomiting, mostly just cough, PND, congestion, severe headache, overall malaise. Probably the worst 'seasonal illness', call it what you want, in the adult portion of my life. I was HARD out of commission for a SOLID 3 days, the following 3 weren't fun, but tolerable. This is mostly irrelevant to the point of my comment though, regarding the "un-accounted for COVID patients".

Had that. Called the MN dept of health. Never had a fever. Their take was no fever = no test = no Covid. Wife had it so bad she went to the er. They wouldn't admit her, but had us buy a nebulizer so she could breathe. But, same thing - no fever, no test, "no Covid".