Coronavirus math

A Doctor in NY said most of his patients had explosive diarrhea before they had any other symptoms.

Quote: rdw4potus

Had that. Called the MN dept of health. Never had a fever. Their take was no fever = no test = no Covid. Wife had it so bad she went to the er. They wouldn't admit her, but had us buy a nebulizer so she could breathe. But, same thing - no fever, no test, "no Covid".

They're starting to find that "no fever" is not as good a differentiation as they thought, specifically looking at Italy's stats. There are a significant number of cases that started with gastrointestinal issues, then moved to respiratory distress without fever, but still tested positive. I don't have numbers. I'm not sure they do.

Again, not trying to be mean or belittle @rdw4potus or @darkoz, but the point was more along the lines of what volume of false-negative COVID folks have ALREADY come and gone. I'm not talking about the current patients, but the people out there that are quarantining completely, but are in reality already safe and could be out and about like normal because they've got immunity already (ignoring any viral mutations or the fact that we may not actually know yet whether or not we build immunity, though I believe we strongly lead to YES?).

Monkey see, Monkey want.
Monkey sees Bruce able to go out , monkey wants to go out.

Suppose there is one or two percent of the population that can safely go out. So what? Is a factory going to reopen with two percent of the work force? Will a bar open up for two percent of its people? If it did, you can bet some people who shouldn't be out will go anyway.
Its not a bad theory, but putting it into practice simply isn't pragmatic.
We won't even get into false negatives.
Please don't be the weakest link.

Oh trust me @billryan, I'm not, I'm on day 14, going on 15 of hard self quarantine. I'm not supporting either side necessarily, just stirring up conversation :p

They are working on anti-body tests that are much cheaper than detection of the virus itself

We need to figure out who had it already using this method

Quote: Bruce1

Btw, did you lose your sense of smell? Never heard of that with the flu.

After doing some reading. I learned that the 2009 Swine deaths could total ~500,000 worldwide with ~60,000,000 infections worldwide. USA had ~114,000 infections confirmed. Italy had ~3,000,000 infections confirmed. The 2019 Coronavirus seems to be in the same order of magnitude as the 2009 Swine Flu. The 1918 Flu killed ~50,000,000 which is a higher order of magnitude. Some believe that the 1918 Flu orginated with British soldiers in France the year prior. I am guilty of getting caught into the hype too.

Won't be the first time China put the world into a major depression.

Quote: Bruce1

This sure makes you consider how many people have already had and either died/recovered from undocumented COVID, let's call it "pre-USA-outbreak", during the original cold/flu season this year? Perhaps entire families and other cohorts have been exposed, shared, experienced signs/symptoms and recovered, essentially decreasing the "true-count" (lol, had to refer to gambling) or the "true death rate/count". I recall myself and several friends/family close to me being TOTALLY wiped out by 'something' from a time frame of Christmas Eve through the end of February, during REGULAR flu season. Specifically, I rode the couch HARD for about 3 days, right up to the time I left to go on a 3-4 day work trip in mid-Feb sometime. But I stayed my ass home, didn't go see a physician, drank my OJ and fluids, medicated, laid low, and I kicked it within about a week, which for me is a LONG ILLNESS. For those of you who know me, I'm generally speaking a young and healthy individual with a strong immune system. I'm the "basically have to be next to dying to see the doctor" kind of guy. But I can tell you what I didn't do during that time... go see my elderly grandparents, or visit with friends. I stayed in, and protected myself and got better. I know I'm not the first to think this, but perhaps this ENTIRE issue could have been avoided with just normal, healthy sanitary behaviors? How many times do we as casino-goers and airport-frequenters see folks (esp. Men) leave the restroom without washing their hands at all? Daily...

Sorry, this got more rambly than I meant for it to be. Be well.

-Bruce

I went to the urgent care for the first time in years on Christmas Day. Part of me really hopes it somehow was this. But not counting on it.