Thread Rating:

redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 320
March 27th, 2020 at 9:18:47 PM permalink
Estimates are for California to have 50% total population infected or more. New York 50-70%. Germany expects 50%-70%.

The models I saw had optimistic variations predicting 80,000 U.S. deaths. That would be twice the annual regular flu deaths in half the time. Those were the optimistic if-we-shelter-in-place numbers.

I expect that it'll be considerably worse.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 2457
March 27th, 2020 at 10:54:45 PM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Really? That low??

Do these Stanford doctors make any assumptions about hospitals functioning well or poorly? Is this a news interview? Or, a peer-reviewed journal article with a full explanation and a more detailed data analysis? I sure would like to know more... link, perhaps?


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/stanford-doctors-coronavirus-fatality-rate-may-be-far-lower-current?fbclid=IwAR0EJBI7IKOm18QbdFcqh8zIh8mgVpPXWqTKKDEidmjO-thOrs68fHJsHQY#.Xn4heDm1PLt.facebook

Hopefully this works
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Mar 28, 2020
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 2457
March 27th, 2020 at 11:00:19 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

Estimates are for California to have 50% total population infected or more. New York 50-70%. Germany expects 50%-70%.

The models I saw had optimistic variations predicting 80,000 U.S. deaths. That would be twice the annual regular flu deaths in half the time. Those were the optimistic if-we-shelter-in-place numbers.

I expect that it'll be considerably worse.



From The Washington Post no less:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/21/facing-covid-19-reality-national-lockdown-is-no-cure/
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 208
  • Posts: 7972
March 28th, 2020 at 12:47:54 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

From The Washington Post no less:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/21/facing-covid-19-reality-national-lockdown-is-no-cure/



First of all, do you pay to see the Washington Post? I will not and I'm blocked from reading it.

Secondly, whatever they are saying is BS. If I have a house full of rats, cats, bats, whatever, and make no way to enter or leave, all the animals die eventually. Actually India is doing it now, so we'll see. If all the people didn't go along with it and some cheated, testing and hunting down chain of infection and quarantining would work. You either snuff this thing, or you get it over with. I'm still thinking infecting as many people not at risk and quarantining would fix most of the problem. All the hotel rooms in America are pretty much empty, the young can be placed there. Young school aged children can be kept at schools.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
Joined: Jul 13, 2012
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 742
March 28th, 2020 at 1:12:35 AM permalink
The swine flu vaccine was released in 6 months. I hope we see a Coronavirus vaccine in June or July.
I belong to an elite group called the "Zombie Outbreak Response Team."
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6256
Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
March 28th, 2020 at 1:29:31 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

First of all, do you pay to see the Washington Post? I will not and I'm blocked from reading it.

Secondly, whatever they are saying is BS. If I have a house full of rats, cats, bats, whatever, and make no way to enter or leave, all the animals die eventually. Actually India is doing it now, so we'll see. If all the people didn't go along with it and some cheated, testing and hunting down chain of infection and quarantining would work. You either snuff this thing, or you get it over with. I'm still thinking infecting as many people not at risk and quarantining would fix most of the problem. All the hotel rooms in America are pretty much empty, the young can be placed there. Young school aged children can be kept at schools.



Interesting thought. But innkeepers ain't going to do that for free.

And that Stanford prediction is probably a bit optimistic. We'll probably be at 10k deaths in two weeks. It really depends on how deadly this is overall. Testing varies so greatly by state, it's still hard to say.
GDBONES
GDBONES
Joined: Mar 26, 2020
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 16
March 28th, 2020 at 5:23:45 AM permalink
So I have reexamined my math and how I viewed the problem - If there is a mortality rate of 1%, then for every new death from the virus, a group of 100 people would have become newly infected 24 days ago. The first death reported in the United States was on 2/29 so we can deduce that 100 people had become newly infected on 2/6. (Obviously this is a rough approximation, but over time this will average out to the assumed mortality rate and time from infection till death). On 3/27 there were 317 new deaths, meaning that 31,700 people had become infected on 3/4. Filling in the data between and 2/6 and 3/4 leads to a cumulative total of 147,600 that were infected in the United States by March 4th. On that day the actual number of reported cases was 217.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 2457
March 28th, 2020 at 7:00:12 AM permalink
ONM: I'm thinking they are waiving fees for a lot of content, no, I paid nothing to the Post and wasn't asked. Link from Twitter via VitalVegas.

Can't say enough good things about Scott at VitalVegas and his reporting. If you are not on Twitter, these times would be a good reason.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
helpmespock
helpmespock
Joined: Mar 6, 2010
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 384
Thanks for this post from:
DeMango
March 28th, 2020 at 7:14:07 AM permalink
The Imperial College London guy that ran the models that spooked the US and UK governments is walking back his 500,000 UK dead number to 20,000.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

--helpmespock
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 168
  • Posts: 9302
March 28th, 2020 at 8:50:38 AM permalink
Quote: jjjoooggg

The swine flu vaccine was released in 6 months. I hope we see a Coronavirus vaccine in June or July.



As the real testing for the vaccine won't start until September, I'm afraid you might be a bit optimistic.
I realize people want go grasp at miracle solutions, but this fantasy that it is going to go away in two or three weeks is going to get a lot of people killed.

  • Jump to: