Coronavirus math

Estimates are for California to have 50% total population infected or more. New York 50-70%. Germany expects 50%-70%.

The models I saw had optimistic variations predicting 80,000 U.S. deaths. That would be twice the annual regular flu deaths in half the time. Those were the optimistic if-we-shelter-in-place numbers.

I expect that it'll be considerably worse.

Quote: LuckyPhow

Really? That low??

Do these Stanford doctors make any assumptions about hospitals functioning well or poorly? Is this a news interview? Or, a peer-reviewed journal article with a full explanation and a more detailed data analysis? I sure would like to know more... link, perhaps?

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/stanford-doctors-coronavirus-fatality-rate-may-be-far-lower-current?fbclid=IwAR0EJBI7IKOm18QbdFcqh8zIh8mgVpPXWqTKKDEidmjO-thOrs68fHJsHQY#.Xn4heDm1PLt.facebook

Hopefully this works

Quote: redietz

Estimates are for California to have 50% total population infected or more. New York 50-70%. Germany expects 50%-70%.

The models I saw had optimistic variations predicting 80,000 U.S. deaths. That would be twice the annual regular flu deaths in half the time. Those were the optimistic if-we-shelter-in-place numbers.

I expect that it'll be considerably worse.

From The Washington Post no less:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/21/facing-covid-19-reality-national-lockdown-is-no-cure/

Quote: DeMango

From The Washington Post no less:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/21/facing-covid-19-reality-national-lockdown-is-no-cure/

First of all, do you pay to see the Washington Post? I will not and I'm blocked from reading it.

Secondly, whatever they are saying is BS. If I have a house full of rats, cats, bats, whatever, and make no way to enter or leave, all the animals die eventually. Actually India is doing it now, so we'll see. If all the people didn't go along with it and some cheated, testing and hunting down chain of infection and quarantining would work. You either snuff this thing, or you get it over with. I'm still thinking infecting as many people not at risk and quarantining would fix most of the problem. All the hotel rooms in America are pretty much empty, the young can be placed there. Young school aged children can be kept at schools.

The swine flu vaccine was released in 6 months. I hope we see a Coronavirus vaccine in June or July.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

First of all, do you pay to see the Washington Post? I will not and I'm blocked from reading it.

Secondly, whatever they are saying is BS. If I have a house full of rats, cats, bats, whatever, and make no way to enter or leave, all the animals die eventually. Actually India is doing it now, so we'll see. If all the people didn't go along with it and some cheated, testing and hunting down chain of infection and quarantining would work. You either snuff this thing, or you get it over with. I'm still thinking infecting as many people not at risk and quarantining would fix most of the problem. All the hotel rooms in America are pretty much empty, the young can be placed there. Young school aged children can be kept at schools.

Interesting thought. But innkeepers ain't going to do that for free.

And that Stanford prediction is probably a bit optimistic. We'll probably be at 10k deaths in two weeks. It really depends on how deadly this is overall. Testing varies so greatly by state, it's still hard to say.

So I have reexamined my math and how I viewed the problem - If there is a mortality rate of 1%, then for every new death from the virus, a group of 100 people would have become newly infected 24 days ago. The first death reported in the United States was on 2/29 so we can deduce that 100 people had become newly infected on 2/6. (Obviously this is a rough approximation, but over time this will average out to the assumed mortality rate and time from infection till death). On 3/27 there were 317 new deaths, meaning that 31,700 people had become infected on 3/4. Filling in the data between and 2/6 and 3/4 leads to a cumulative total of 147,600 that were infected in the United States by March 4th. On that day the actual number of reported cases was 217.

ONM: I'm thinking they are waiving fees for a lot of content, no, I paid nothing to the Post and wasn't asked. Link from Twitter via VitalVegas.

Can't say enough good things about Scott at VitalVegas and his reporting. If you are not on Twitter, these times would be a good reason.

The Imperial College London guy that ran the models that spooked the US and UK governments is walking back his 500,000 UK dead number to 20,000.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

--helpmespock

Quote: jjjoooggg

The swine flu vaccine was released in 6 months. I hope we see a Coronavirus vaccine in June or July.

As the real testing for the vaccine won't start until September, I'm afraid you might be a bit optimistic.
I realize people want go grasp at miracle solutions, but this fantasy that it is going to go away in two or three weeks is going to get a lot of people killed.