The models I saw had optimistic variations predicting 80,000 U.S. deaths. That would be twice the annual regular flu deaths in half the time. Those were the optimistic if-we-shelter-in-place numbers.
I expect that it'll be considerably worse.
Quote: LuckyPhowReally? That low??
Do these Stanford doctors make any assumptions about hospitals functioning well or poorly? Is this a news interview? Or, a peer-reviewed journal article with a full explanation and a more detailed data analysis? I sure would like to know more... link, perhaps?
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/stanford-doctors-coronavirus-fatality-rate-may-be-far-lower-current?fbclid=IwAR0EJBI7IKOm18QbdFcqh8zIh8mgVpPXWqTKKDEidmjO-thOrs68fHJsHQY#.Xn4heDm1PLt.facebook
Hopefully this works
Quote: redietzEstimates are for California to have 50% total population infected or more. New York 50-70%. Germany expects 50%-70%.
The models I saw had optimistic variations predicting 80,000 U.S. deaths. That would be twice the annual regular flu deaths in half the time. Those were the optimistic if-we-shelter-in-place numbers.
I expect that it'll be considerably worse.
From The Washington Post no less:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/21/facing-covid-19-reality-national-lockdown-is-no-cure/
Quote: DeMangoFrom The Washington Post no less:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/21/facing-covid-19-reality-national-lockdown-is-no-cure/
First of all, do you pay to see the Washington Post? I will not and I'm blocked from reading it.
Secondly, whatever they are saying is BS. If I have a house full of rats, cats, bats, whatever, and make no way to enter or leave, all the animals die eventually. Actually India is doing it now, so we'll see. If all the people didn't go along with it and some cheated, testing and hunting down chain of infection and quarantining would work. You either snuff this thing, or you get it over with. I'm still thinking infecting as many people not at risk and quarantining would fix most of the problem. All the hotel rooms in America are pretty much empty, the young can be placed there. Young school aged children can be kept at schools.
Quote: onenickelmiracleFirst of all, do you pay to see the Washington Post? I will not and I'm blocked from reading it.
Secondly, whatever they are saying is BS. If I have a house full of rats, cats, bats, whatever, and make no way to enter or leave, all the animals die eventually. Actually India is doing it now, so we'll see. If all the people didn't go along with it and some cheated, testing and hunting down chain of infection and quarantining would work. You either snuff this thing, or you get it over with. I'm still thinking infecting as many people not at risk and quarantining would fix most of the problem. All the hotel rooms in America are pretty much empty, the young can be placed there. Young school aged children can be kept at schools.
Interesting thought. But innkeepers ain't going to do that for free.
And that Stanford prediction is probably a bit optimistic. We'll probably be at 10k deaths in two weeks. It really depends on how deadly this is overall. Testing varies so greatly by state, it's still hard to say.
Can't say enough good things about Scott at VitalVegas and his reporting. If you are not on Twitter, these times would be a good reason.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
--helpmespock
Quote: jjjooogggThe swine flu vaccine was released in 6 months. I hope we see a Coronavirus vaccine in June or July.
As the real testing for the vaccine won't start until September, I'm afraid you might be a bit optimistic.
I realize people want go grasp at miracle solutions, but this fantasy that it is going to go away in two or three weeks is going to get a lot of people killed.