Coronavirus math

Quote: gordonm888

Why did Italy lead the world in Swine Flu cases in 2009-2010? I mean, what in Hell goes on in Italy?

Supposedly, Italy has a high concentration of people per square mile.

The only somewhat accurate numbers that we do have is the daily number of deaths due to the virus. On 3/28 that number was 447. Which means with a mortality rate of 1%, on 3/5 there were roughly 44,700 individuals that were newly infected in the United States. On March 5th there were 45 new cases reported.

Quote: GDBONES

The only somewhat accurate numbers that we do have is the daily number of deaths due to the virus. On 3/28 that number was 447. Which means with a mortality rate of 1%, on 3/5 there were roughly 44,700 individuals that were newly infected in the United States. On March 5th there were 45 new cases reported.

It doesn't have a mortality rate of 1%. It's most widely reported as 3.4% in countries further along in the process, but some countries are showing as high as 6% or so. US, with an incomplete curve (still rising, way too few tests still), mortality rate is 1.77%, at current reports.

Quote: jjjoooggg

Supposedly, Italy has a high concentration of people per square mile.

Italy has a population of around SEVENTY million and is the size of New Mexico. New Mexico has a population of around TWO million.

Buttttt...... NY City metro are has over 10 million in an area a fraction the size of Italy. NY city metro area cases will eventually dwarf that of Italy, I predict. Death rate per infected individual will be far less due to our superior health care system and pre-existent resources, but the lower rate multiplied by higher infection rate will result in a high number of deaths on an absolute scale.

Quote: beachbumbabs

It doesn't have a mortality rate of 1%. It's most widely reported as 3.4% in countries further along in the process, but some countries are showing as high as 6% or so. US, with an incomplete curve (still rising, way too few tests still), mortality rate is 1.77%, at current reports.

I thought the 3.4%and higher numbers was using confirmed cases in the denominator. If so, that will of course understate actual cases so overstate the mortality rate.

Quote: beachbumbabs

It doesn't have a mortality rate of 1%. It's most widely reported as 3.4% in countries further along in the process, but some countries are showing as high as 6% or so. US, with an incomplete curve (still rising, way too few tests still), mortality rate is 1.77%, at current reports.

I think the higher numbers like 6% reflect inability to deal with the overload. Either lack of facilities, equipment, or even sick workers. Whereas the number drops when all the infected were to be under more traditional circumstances.

I was using a rough estimate of what has been reported in the literature. Obviously with 50% of people infected being asymptomatic the number of reported positive tests are going to greatly underestimate the true number of infections.
A more accurate estimate of mortality rated would be based on countries that have done extensive testing and have a slowing rate of mortality growth (further along in the process)
Norway 4239 cases and 25 deaths
South Korea 9583 cases and 152 deaths
Which yields a mortality rate of 1.3%

However, even using a mortality rate of 3.4% means that 13,147 people were newly infected on March 5th when only 45 new cases were reported.

Quote: SOOPOO

Italy has a population of around SEVENTY million and is the size of New Mexico. New Mexico has a population of around TWO million.

Buttttt...... NY City metro are has over 10 million in an area a fraction the size of Italy. NY city metro area cases will eventually dwarf that of Italy, I predict. Death rate per infected individual will be far less due to our superior health care system and pre-existent resources, but the lower rate multiplied by higher infection rate will result in a high number of deaths on an absolute scale.

Venice, Italy



New York

Quote: jjjoooggg

Supposedly, Italy has a high concentration of people per square mile.

Here at WoV we have a high concentration of chicken littles per square inch on my iPad. The only controlled group we have so far was that cruise liner that just returned after quarantine. I believe it was 700+ cases with seven deaths. No shadow of a doubt in my mind the average age of crew members and passengers is higher than national average. So no 100% infections and 1% mortality. I trust Finland’s figure of .7% mortality is holding up too.

I was using a rough estimate of what has been reported in the literature. Obviously with 50% of people infected being asymptomatic the number of reported positive tests are going to greatly underestimate the true number of infections.
A more accurate estimate of mortality rated would be based on countries that have done extensive testing and have a slowing rate of mortality growth (further along in the process)
Norway 4239 cases and 25 deaths
South Korea 9583 cases and 152 deaths
Which yields a mortality rate of 1.3%

However, even using a mortality rate of 3.4% means that 13,147 people were newly infected on March 5th when only 45 new cases were reported.