Coronavirus math
Quote: rxwineWe would have had test kits ready early. The stockpile should have been evaluated as well and the federal government should have had the states report their needs, and manufacturing should have been initiated earlier based on a shortfall. It's up to the federal government to lead in a national emergency, even if the states have their own responsibilities.
IOW, you would have done next to nothing. Just pretend you would have known what to do based on hindsight.
Quote: AZDuffmanIOW, you would have done next to nothing. Just pretend you would have known what to do based on hindsight.
If social distancing had been called for earlier
1) lives would have been saved
However
2) everyone would have resisted and cried fowl.
Being truthful here, it was a no-win call for anybody who might have been in charge
Quote: AZDuffmanIOW, you would have done next to nothing. Just pretend you would have known what to do based on hindsight.
I took your question seriously, which is apparently way more than it deserved.
Quote: rxwineI took your question seriously, which is apparently way more than it deserved.
Your answer is like that of a doctor who looks at the ER report two days later and demands to know why the ER doc on duty did not do some obscure thing. The second doc had all the time in the world to think about it, the first was in life and death.
It is EASY to say "should have done this" when you know what happened after.
Quote: darkozIf social distancing had been called for earlier
1) lives would have been saved
However
2) everyone would have resisted and cried fowl.
Being truthful here, it was a no-win call for anybody who might have been in charge
Exactly. We could all be put in an individual pod like a prison cell with no contact. But it all has to be balanced.
Luckily we are at about 10% of the model prediction. We are doing flipping good.
Quote: darkozIf social distancing had been called for earlier
1) lives would have been saved
However
2) everyone would have resisted and cried fowl.
Being truthful here, it was a no-win call for anybody who might have been in charge
I also thought "buy more ventilators" would be an unlikely early call because of the expense. But everything else was completely reasonable and not unusually costly or behavior driven prevention.
The alarm should have been going off for ventilators though when the reports from Italy started coming in.
I read an interview years ago with the main proponent of Y2K. He claimed everyone blames him for a mass hysteria over something that never happened
He claims it never happened because people believed him and took successfulmeasures to prevent it. He claims he saved the world but no one gives him credit for it
To this day that conundrum haunts me.
What would you do? Raise hell, save the world and be called a scamming liar who wasted everyone time.
Or just let the world burn
Quote: darkozThe irony is that if serious early prevention had occurred and worked so well that no significant illnesses occurred that person (regardless of who or what party) would have been accused of a false alarm and wasteful spending
I read an interview years ago with the main proponent of Y2K. He claimed everyone blames him for a mass hysteria over something that never happened
He claims it never happened because people believed him and took successfulmeasures to prevent it. He claims he saved the world but no one gives him credit for it
To this day that conundrum haunts me.
What would you do? Raise hell, save the world and be called a scamming liar who wasted everyone time.
Or just let the world burn
I always wonder on Y2K. On one hand, lots of work was done, some of which will blow up in about 10-15 years. OTOH, we knew about much of it in 1970 when 30 year financial products were giving error messages. I was the manager so got all the letters from customers demanding to know what we were doing, at least one an internal customer, our own company!
IMHO this scare is teaching what should have been learned during Y2K. Have a few weeks to few months of food in the pantry. Have 1-3 months income in the emergency fund.
That is the big one. We saw articles a few times a year that 40% of people cannot handle a $500 emergency. I saw the food bank lines in CA. Surely there are more elsewhere, but these high-cost places are the epicenter. Will the public learn?
Quote: darkozThe irony is that if serious early prevention had occurred and worked so well that no significant illnesses occurred that person (regardless of who or what party) would have been accused of a false alarm and wasteful spending
I read an interview years ago with the main proponent of Y2K. He claimed everyone blames him for a mass hysteria over something that never happened
He claims it never happened because people believed him and took successfulmeasures to prevent it. He claims he saved the world but no one gives him credit for it
To this day that conundrum haunts me.
What would you do? Raise hell, save the world and be called a scamming liar who wasted everyone time.
Or just let the world burn
Same thing I think might happen with reduction of tobacco consumption. Too much success leads to future generations thinking that cancer connection was overblown. They'll bring back the Marlboro Man when people have forgotten how 5 of them died.
Quote:The use of the Marlboro Man campaign had very significant and immediate effects on sales. In 1955, when the Marlboro Man campaign was started, sales were at $5 billion. By 1957, sales were at $20 billion, representing a 300% increase within two years. Philip Morris easily overcame growing health concerns through the Marlboro Man campaign, highlighting the success as well as the tobacco industry’s strong ability to use mass marketing to influence the public.[23]
The immediate success of the Marlboro Man campaign led to heavy imitation. Old Golds adopted the tagline marking it a cigarette for "independent thinkers". Chesterfield depicted cowboy and other masculine occupations to match their tagline: "Men of America" smoke Chesterfields.[24]
Quote: darkozThe irony is that if serious early prevention had occurred and worked so well that no significant illnesses occurred that person (regardless of who or what party) would have been accused of a false alarm and wasteful spending
I read an interview years ago with the main proponent of Y2K. He claimed everyone blames him for a mass hysteria over something that never happened
He claims it never happened because people believed him and took successfulmeasures to prevent it. He claims he saved the world but no one gives him credit for it
To this day that conundrum haunts me.
What would you do? Raise hell, save the world and be called a scamming liar who wasted everyone time.
Or just let the world burn
This describes how a public health response is supposed to go. You stop the epidemic and most of the public complains on how much money and time was wasted on it because so many fewer people were afflicted than initially expected. Because the measures worked! Lol People like Fauci and Birx have thankless jobs.
Quote: darkozThe irony is that if serious early prevention had occurred and worked so well that no significant illnesses occurred that person (regardless of who or what party) would have been accused of a false alarm and wasteful spending
I read an interview years ago with the main proponent of Y2K. He claimed everyone blames him for a mass hysteria over something that never happened
He claims it never happened because people believed him and took successfulmeasures to prevent it. He claims he saved the world but no one gives him credit for it
To this day that conundrum haunts me.
What would you do? Raise hell, save the world and be called a scamming liar who wasted everyone time.
Or just let the world burn
Option 3. Let the world start to burn but then introduce a miracle solution. If it works, you can claim the credit. What do you have to lose?
Quote: AZDuffman
That is the big one. We saw articles a few times a year that 40% of people cannot handle a $500 emergency. I saw the food bank lines in CA. Surely there are more elsewhere, but these high-cost places are the epicenter. Will the public learn?
Learn what? That if I don't have a dollar to my name I'll be able to get free food by waiting in line? Trust me, the public is well aware already.
guess why they are doing this
go ahead, guess
you guessed it
conspiracy theorists are trolling and spreading lies that 5G is causing the virus to spread
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/technology/coronavirus-5g-uk.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Quote: lilredroosterGeniuses burning cell towers in Britain
guess why they are doing this
go ahead, guess
you guessed it
conspiracy theorists are trolling and spreading lies that 5G is causing the virus to spread
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/technology/coronavirus-5g-uk.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I hate the internet. And I wouldn't be shocked if the UK had the most deaths per capita by the time this was over.
W.C. Fields - The Diner Sketch - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOHGr8r5Cs4
Quote: lilredroosterGeniuses burning cell towers in Britain
guess why they are doing this
go ahead, guess
you guessed it
conspiracy theorists are trolling and spreading lies that 5G is causing the virus to spread
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/technology/coronavirus-5g-uk.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I think this conspiracy theory goes more like this:
A vaccine for covid 19 will come with a digital identity that needs 5g to work,
the lockdown is done so there will be 5g installations done smoothly.
The call for social distancing is so there will be no protests.
You get the vaccine you lose your self totally and get controlled.
Not that it sounds too much more logical, but at least they aren't claiming a direct connection between 5g towers and C19 spread afaik.
Quote: rawtuffQuote: lilredroosterGeniuses burning cell towers in Britain
guess why they are doing this
go ahead, guess
you guessed it
conspiracy theorists are trolling and spreading lies that 5G is causing the virus to spread
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/technology/coronavirus-5g-uk.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I think this conspiracy theory goes more like this:
A vaccine for covid 19 will come with a digital identity that needs 5g to work,
the lockdown is done so there will be 5g installations done smoothly.
The call for social distancing is so there will be no protests.
You get the vaccine you lose your self totally and get controlled.
Not that it sounds too much more logical, but at least they aren't claiming a direct connection between 5g towers and C19 spread afaik.
No, that's too sophisticated
They actually believe Covid-19 is either caused by the 5g or there is another theory that it emits a radiation that weakens our immune systems helping Covid-19 to spread rapidly
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/tech/5g-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-trnd/index.html
Quote: darkoz
No, that's too sophisticated
They actually believe Covid-19 is either caused by the 5g or there is another theory that it emits a radiation that weakens our immune systems helping Covid-19 to spread rapidly
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/tech/5g-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-trnd/index.html
Well, that'll be way too feeble of a theory since everyone, even the most gullible, know or should know there are like 5 countries with live 5G towers and like 200 countries affected by C19, many of the most affected regions don't even have towers so there is not even an observable correlation, let alone causation.
Quote: SOOPOOLearn what? That if I don't have a dollar to my name I'll be able to get free food by waiting in line? Trust me, the public is well aware already.
Learn that you have to be better prepared. The Depression generation prepped. They kept money for an emergency, and their pantries were full. They lived fairly frugal. They reused things and knew how to get by.
Some of the Baby Boomers saw this and emulated parts of it. They saw recessions every few years. They knew to "save up" if a known bad event like a strike was on the horizon. But over the years they drifted away from the good habits.
Those born after 1977 or so never saw real bad times, never saw a really bad recession. "The Great Recession" was not that at all compared to 1982, where 100 year old industries just collapsed. There was not 20% prime rates and 15% inflation.
I have been near broke but even then I always had some emergency money to bail me out. After a brush with BK I lived like a monk for years to get out of debt and get saved up. I still live like half a monk, keeping a modest home and car. The kids on some pods I worked on, I could not believe how they spent money. It came up once and a girl told me the general attitude was "if you are deep in student loan debt you live for today since it will be forever before you get ahead."
Those people had better have learned as I am sure she was among that group that could not handle a $400 emergency. Hopefully the masses will now start copy canning at the least, and putting $15 a week aside. In 3-4 years they will be in shape to last if this kind of thing happens again.
But alas, they will not learn. A few will of course. The rest will be buying lottery tickets instead of putting emergency funds aside and eating takeaway instead of learning to make their food dollar last.
Quote: AZDuffmanLearn that you have to be better prepared. The Depression generation prepped. They kept money for an emergency, and their pantries were full. They lived fairly frugal. They reused things and knew how to get by.
Some of the Baby Boomers saw this and emulated parts of it. They saw recessions every few years. They knew to "save up" if a known bad event like a strike was on the horizon. But over the years they drifted away from the good habits.
Those born after 1977 or so never saw real bad times, never saw a really bad recession. "The Great Recession" was not that at all compared to 1982, where 100 year old industries just collapsed. There was not 20% prime rates and 15% inflation.
I have been near broke but even then I always had some emergency money to bail me out. After a brush with BK I lived like a monk for years to get out of debt and get saved up. I still live like half a monk, keeping a modest home and car. The kids on some pods I worked on, I could not believe how they spent money. It came up once and a girl told me the general attitude was "if you are deep in student loan debt you live for today since it will be forever before you get ahead."
Those people had better have learned as I am sure she was among that group that could not handle a $400 emergency. Hopefully the masses will now start copy canning at the least, and putting $15 a week aside. In 3-4 years they will be in shape to last if this kind of thing happens again.
But alas, they will not learn. A few will of course. The rest will be buying lottery tickets instead of putting emergency funds aside and eating takeaway instead of learning to make their food dollar last.
Every Jew knows to invest in diamonds for a rainy pogrom, Spanish Inquisition or Holocaust
Edit: Being Jewish myself that's just one history lesson takeaway
To me, that's not an acceptable trade. Hopefully,someone will be able to convince our leaders.
Waiting for the update on clinical trials
Not anything spoken at this forum. I will probably create a thread for it.
Seems promising to the point of us being able to reopen without fear of dying
Quote: darkozThere is a drug that may be coming soon. I'm talking weeks
Waiting for the update on clinical trials
Not anything spoken at this forum. I will probably create a thread for it.
Seems promising to the point of us being able to reopen without fear of dying
This exisiting thread seems like a good place to post about it:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/34521-the-cure-is-it-over/12/
Quote: darkozThere is a drug that may be coming soon. I'm talking weeks
Waiting for the update on clinical trials
Not anything spoken at this forum. I will probably create a thread for it.
Seems promising to the point of us being able to reopen without fear of dying
You talking about the vaccine developed at University of Pitt? Or a treatment drug?
Quote: unJonYou talking about the vaccine developed at University of Pitt? Or a treatment drug?
Treatment drug
Quote: KeeneoneThis exisiting thread seems like a good place to post about it:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/34521-the-cure-is-it-over/12/
Thanks. I was looking for that
That thread became a bit political. I'm not sure if I want to just start a dedicated thread
I guess the mods probably prefer me just to add to that one.
Maybe they can chime in
Again I am waiting for a new article about recent results. If it's as promising as it looks it deserves it own thread imho
Quote: darkozI read an interview years ago with the main proponent of Y2K. He claimed everyone blames him for a mass hysteria over something that never happened
Here is Time Magazine's 20-year appreciation.
Quote: Y2K -- 20 Years On...20 Years Later, the Y2K Bug Seems Like a Joke—Because Those Behind the Scenes Took It Seriously
I was very involved with Florida's Y2K preparations. As all the executive agencies were scrambling, someone asked whether anyone knew if the Judiciary was onto Y2K or not. It wasn't. Worse, Y2K for Florida's judicial system was 6 months earlier (1-Jul-1999) because the whole judicial system depended on its ability to schedule court dates 6 months out.
Florida almost broke its judicial system because people charged with a crime in Florida can demand a "speedy" trial. If the court cannot put those folk in front of a jury by a date certain (in statute), then the case is a nol-pros (administratively dismissed). Murderers could have gotten away scott free because of a computer date problem.
Quote: billryanIf we reopen May 1st, we will see about 100,000 dead from the virus. If we stay closed until June 1st, we will see about 60,000.
To me, that's not an acceptable trade. Hopefully,someone will be able to convince our leaders.
Actually it is a very acceptable trade when you are talking another $1 trillion in cost, and probably more.
Then add in it seems if you die from it you probably had less than a year left in any case.
GET AMERICA OPEN!
Quote: darkozTreatment drug
There's suppose to be some 60 drugs they are looking at. Other than a year from now if there is a vaccine, it shouldn't be much more than 2 months before we hear something more definite about most of them.
Quote: AZDuffmanActually it is a very acceptable trade when you are talking another $1 trillion in cost, and probably more.
Then add in it seems if you die from it you probably had less than a year left in any case.
GET AMERICA OPEN!
So you think the life of an American isn't worth $25,000. Which of your family members are you willing to lose to gain $25,000 in GDP?
Quote: billryanSo you think the life of an American isn't worth $25,000. Which of your family members are you willing to lose to gain $25,000 in GDP?
$1 Trillion divided by 40000 is $25 Million.
That is unacceptable.
OPEN IT UP!
Quote: AZDuffman$1 Trillion divided by 40000 is $25 Million.
That is unacceptable.
OPEN IT UP!
Well, as long as your family members are worth less than $25 million, I guess that's a good trade.
Me, personally, if you offered me $25 million or even $25 trillion for the life of my mom, dad, daughter, etc I would not accept it
Quote: darkozWell, as long as your family members are worth less than $25 million, I guess that's a good trade.
25 million is probably what the lawyer would sue a big entity for in wrongful death
Quote:Wrongful death cases often arise when there is evidence to show that a death would not have occurred but for the misconduct of another.
Of course, the settlement would be less. I can't mention a case where a person was cheered by many for getting a million dollar settlement, for basically being insulted. Dying ought to be worth more. One would think.
That said, I don't think there is really a good solution for this whole thing. It's pain either way. It's rock and a hard place.
Quote: darkozWell, as long as your family members are worth less than $25 million, I guess that's a good trade.
Me, personally, if you offered me $25 million or even $25 trillion for the life of my mom, dad, daughter, etc I would not accept it
It doesn't work that way. We have no idea if it will be that many people, or who they will be. You cannot go around saying "THERE IS NO PRICE ON A LIFE!" At some point a leader has to do a cost/benefit.
OPEN IT UP!
Quote: darkozWell, as long as your family members are worth less than $25 million, I guess that's a good trade.
Me, personally, if you offered me $25 million or even $25 trillion for the life of my mom, dad, daughter, etc I would not accept it
Are you against people driving cars? They kill many people. But also boost the economy. We could write a similar equation about the cost per life for driving.
Quote: unJonAre you against people driving cars? They kill many people. But also boost the economy. We could write a similar equation about the cost per life for driving.
These equating of deaths is something I see often.
The hospitals in NYC and many other states are currently overrun due to Coronavirus. So many people are coming to deaths door due to the disease
Yes people die from Auto accidents. But they don't equate.
Once car accidents overrun our nation's hospitals, once auto accidents kill 700+ per day in just NYC and add 10,000 hospitalized in two weeks, I guarantee then, yes, you will see a public outcry for new rules about cars.
Don't believe me? Do we use Asbestos products anymore? Are there restrictions on lead paint? I am certain there are many things that were good for us that we eliminated because of health issues.
So when cars get to that inundation level at hospitals like Coronavirus then let's start comparisons
Quote: darkozThese equating of deaths is something I see often.
The hospitals in NYC and many other states are currently overrun due to Coronavirus. So many people are coming to deaths door due to the disease
Yes people die from Auto accidents. But they don't equate.
Once car accidents overrun our nation's hospitals, once auto accidents kill 700+ per day in just NYC and add 10,000 hospitalized in two weeks, I guarantee then, yes, you will see a public outcry for new rules about cars.
Don't believe me? Do we use Asbestos products anymore? Are there restrictions on lead paint? I am certain there are many things that were good for us that we eliminated because of health issues.
So when cars get to that inundation level at hospitals like Coronavirus then let's start comparisons
Restricting lead paint is not closing an economy and possibly causing a depression. You can say there is no price too high for a life, but leaders do not have that luxury. In reality we make cost/benefit choices daily.
OPEN IT UP!
Quote: AZDuffmanRestricting lead paint is not closing an economy and possibly causing a depression. You can say there is no price too high for a life, but leaders do not have that luxury. In reality we make cost/benefit choices daily.
OPEN IT UP!
Apparently leaders do have that luxury
They already made decisions
Guess what, we are shutdown.
Quote: darkozApparently leaders do have that luxury
They already made decisions
Guess what, we are shutdown.
And we will soon be opened up.
Leaders had to consider things very careful.
Every day now it is more and more clear the models were way off. Time to open for business.
Quote: AZDuffmanAnd we will soon be opened up.
Leaders had to consider things very careful.
Every day now it is more and more clear the models were way off. Time to open for business.
I am certain we will open eventually
What estimate do you give?
You think we will be open in April? (Doubtful)
May? (Possible)
June (more likely)
Quote: AZDuffmanAnd we will soon be opened up.
Leaders had to consider things very careful.
Every day now it is more and more clear the models were way off. Time to open for business.
Just as hurricane tracking adds new data multiple times a day, the path alters. Would people rather see no data prediction at all? Sorry, you've no better option than random luck without them.
Quote: darkozThe hospitals in NYC and many other states are currently overrun due to Coronavirus. So many people are coming to deaths door due to the disease
Then why are the supplemental hospitals so underused?
"'As of Friday, fewer than 100 of the more than 1,000 beds at the Javits Center were staffed by federal medical personnel, according to a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
As of Sunday, the Navy ship had treated about 40 patients, most of whom were recovering from emergency surgeries conducted at hospitals on land."
NPR
Quote: darkozThese equating of deaths is something I see often.
The hospitals in NYC and many other states are currently overrun due to Coronavirus. So many people are coming to deaths door due to the disease
Yes people die from Auto accidents. But they don't equate.
Once car accidents overrun our nation's hospitals, once auto accidents kill 700+ per day in just NYC and add 10,000 hospitalized in two weeks, I guarantee then, yes, you will see a public outcry for new rules about cars.
Don't believe me? Do we use Asbestos products anymore? Are there restrictions on lead paint? I am certain there are many things that were good for us that we eliminated because of health issues.
So when cars get to that inundation level at hospitals like Coronavirus then let's start comparisons
False equivalence. Asbestos didn’t inundate hospitals either. But we got rid of it (sort of).
And you embraced the mathematical equation for opening up or not. I was just Checking if you would be consistent.
(For the record, I am very intentionally not arguing a side here. Just calling out what I view as bad arguments.)
Quote: unJonFalse equivalence. Asbestos didn’t inundate hospitals either. But we got rid of it (sort of).
And you embraced the mathematical equation for opening up or not. I was just Checking if you would be consistent.
(For the record, I am very intentionally not arguing a side here. Just calling out what I view as bad arguments.)
Then the car issue is also a false equivalent
Hospitals are not inundated with car accidents to the point of beds not available
Quote: SanchoPanzaThen why are the supplemental hospitals so underused?
"'As of Friday, fewer than 100 of the more than 1,000 beds at the Javits Center were staffed by federal medical personnel, according to a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
As of Sunday, the Navy ship had treated about 40 patients, most of whom were recovering from emergency surgeries conducted at hospitals on land."
NPR
Now you gotta be kidding me! Didn't you even read the article??????????
It says both hospitals were Designated as NON-COVID field hospitals
What are we in????? A covid-19 pandemic
So, duuuh, the hospitals not accepting Covid patients aren't being overrun
Smfh
Quote: darkozThen the car issue is also a false equivalent
Hospitals are not inundated with car accidents to the point of beds not available
Inundated hospitals are not the primary issue. The primary issue is mortality and inundated hospitals exacerbate mortality. Agreed?
Cars manage to kill people without inundating hospitals. So what? It’s because you tend to die right away or be ok right away with a car accident. Many fewer results of a car crash result in taking up a hospital bed for 14 days.
Quote: unJonInundated hospitals are not the primary issue. The primary issue is mortality and inundated hospitals exacerbate mortality. Agreed?
Cars manage to kill people without inundating hospitals. So what? It’s because you tend to die right away or be ok right away with a car accident. Many fewer results of a car crash result in taking up a hospital bed for 14 days.
So then... It's a false equivalent!
As you say, many car accidents don't inundate the hospital with patients for 14 days.
Why are you using car accidents then as an equivalent?
Quote: SanchoPanzaThen why are the supplemental hospitals so underused?
I'd have to guess, you need an ambulance and a crew to move just one ventilator patient. This ties up people and equipment for at least an hour, but probably more.
Not sure why they aren't directing people to other hospitals though. Could be the level of care at other hospitals, especially people with more than one problem who might need specialists.
