Coronavirus math
Quote: darkozSo then... It's a false equivalent!
As you say, many car accidents don't inundate the hospital with patients for 14 days.
Why are you using car accidents then as an equivalent?
Nope. Reread my first sentence. You introduced the false equivalent when you pivoted to hospital inundation as what we are trying to prevent. We are trying to prevent deaths. And hospital inundation is only a problem because it increases mortality.
Quote: unJonNope. Reread my first sentence. You introduced the false equivalent when you pivoted to hospital inundation as what we are trying to prevent. We are trying to prevent deaths. And hospital inundation is only a problem because it increases mortality.
Most of the experts I see are saying we are doing this to keep the hospitals from being inundated because that will exponentially raise the death rate.
I haven't seen any medical professionals state we are going to have death rates for Covid-19 go to zero until a vaccine which is 12-18 months away.
An I have seen no professionals state we need to keep the economy closed until 2021.
So the issue is hospital inundation as it relates to this crisis
Quote: rxwineI'd have to guess, you need an ambulance and a crew to move just one ventilator patient. This ties up people and equipment for at least an hour, but probably more.
Not sure why they aren't directing people to other hospitals though. Could be the level of care at other hospitals, especially people with more than one problem who might need specialists.
Somewhat close.
Under normal circumstances a patient can request what hospital he prefers given the emergency conditions and how far away the request is.
With so many ambulance calls, that has been suspended officially in the city so you get taken to the nearest hospital period. Regardless of your emergency.
Maybe hard to understand for rural America but in such a crowded city there are hospitals all over.
So taking people to these two field hospitals isn't in the cards unless you live significantly close to them
Quote: darkozMost of the experts I see are saying we are doing this to keep the hospitals from being inundated because that will exponentially raise the death rate.
I haven't seen any medical professionals state we are going to have death rates for Covid-19 go to zero until a vaccine which is 12-18 months away.
An I have seen no professionals state we need to keep the economy closed until 2021.
So the issue is hospital inundation as it relates to this crisis
Good. Thank you for flushing it out. It’s a very reasonable position.
P.S. It’s also one where you endorsed the economy over life. Just not quite yet. Just not until the hospitals won’t be overrun anymore. Then let the people out, more people will die . . . ;-)
(Embrace it. It’s a reasonable position.)
Quote: darkozSomewhat close.
Under normal circumstances a patient can request what hospital he prefers given the emergency conditions and how far away the request is.
With so many ambulance calls, that has been suspended officially in the city so you get taken to the nearest hospital period. Regardless of your emergency.
Maybe hard to understand for rural America but in such a crowded city there are hospitals all over.
So taking people to these two field hospitals isn't in the cards unless you live significantly close to them
You go to a hospital that your health insurance is accepted so as to stay in network.
Quote: unJonGood. Thank you for flushing it out. It’s a very reasonable position.
P.S. It’s also one where you endorsed the economy over life. Just not quite yet. Just not until the hospitals won’t be overrun anymore. Then let the people out, more people will die . . . ;-)
(Embrace it. It’s a reasonable position.)
I was quite angry they shut the casinos down.
So was my friend George. Last text he sent me was that xyz casino was shut down for Coronavirus.
Two weeks later he was dead.
It was a sobering experience
I am not trying to be argumentative. I just see people making the same argument for keeping everything open I made two weeks ago. I think with the virus far away from you it's an easy argument to make
The closer it comes to your doorstep the harder that argument becomes
I’m very sorry about your friend.Quote: darkozI was quite angry they shut the casinos down.
So was my friend George. Last text he sent me was that xyz casino was shut down for Coronavirus.
Two weeks later he was dead.
It was a sobering experience
I am not trying to be argumentative. I just see people making the same argument for keeping everything open I made two weeks ago. I think with the virus far away from you it's an easy argument to make
The closer it comes to your doorstep the harder that argument becomes
I’m not arguing that things should be opened up. I’VE very carefully not weighed in one way or another.
I’m just saying it’s ok to advocate that leaders weigh lives and dollars. They do that. Every day. Both sides of the aisle.
Should we raise the speed limit? Well more people will die, but it will be more convenient for people and more efficient for the economy (increased productivity).
Should we open the economy up again? Well . . .
Quote: unJonI’m very sorry about your friend.
I’m not arguing that things should be opened up. I’VE very carefully not weighed in one way or another.
I’m just saying it’s ok to advocate that leaders weigh lives and dollars. They do that. Every day. Both sides of the aisle.
Should we raise the speed limit? Well more people will die, but it will be more convenient for people and more efficient for the economy (increased productivity).
Should we open the economy up again? Well . . .
The problem is if the Economy is reopened without the general feeling that everyone is somewhat safe then the stores will simply reopen to no sales.
I saw an interview with a restaurant that switched to takeout only. Even with that he said sales are down 70%. Of course people may just have less disposable income but if they don't feel safe they aren't going to eat out.
Employees at companies that aren't making the sales will lay off employees
So either way the economy is screwed
Best to get this under some semblance of control
Let's get real here. It's one-percenters, and to a lesser extent, white collar workers who "want the economy opened up."
It must be nice to blow "Charge" on your trumpet when you don't have to make the climb up Cemetery Hill.
Years later, when asked why his charge failed, General Pickett (who of course was still alive) said, "I think the Yankees had something to do with it."
Let's put some of the one-percenters on the front lines and see "if the virus has something to do with it."
Which hospitals are not accepting Covid-19 patients???Quote: darkozSo, duuuh, the hospitals not accepting Covid patients aren't being overrun
Quote: SanchoPanzaWhich hospitals are not accepting Covid-19 patients???
The ones you cited in the article
Are you purposefully trying to incite anger by asking questions about stuff in your own article that you posted then acting like you don't know
Quote: darkozThe ones you cited in the article
Are you purposefully trying to incite anger by asking questions about stuff in your own article that you posted then acting like you don't know
"The Navy hospital ship USNS Comfort and the Defense Department-run alternate care facility at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center, both in New York City, are now taking patients with COVID-19, defense medical officials said." --DOD
went to the casino twice that
weekend. Took Lyft to and from
the airport as usual. On Jan 28th
I got terribly sick with the flu.
Constant coughing, 101-103
temp, horrible fatigue.
I have never been that sick before.
Fever finally broke after 3 days,
and the cough abated after 10
days. But not the fatigue. I had
to take a 90 min nap every 3
hours for weeks afterwards.
Every recovered covid victim
I've seen interviewed says they
still suffer from fatigue. It's 2
1/2 months later for me and
I'm just this week feeling almost
normal. I'm betting I had the
damn thing.
Quote: unJonInundated hospitals are not the primary issue. The primary issue is mortality and inundated hospitals exacerbate mortality. Agreed?
Cars manage to kill people without inundating hospitals. So what? It’s because you tend to die right away or be ok right away with a car accident. Many fewer results of a car crash result in taking up a hospital bed for 14 days.
This is just not true. Car crash victims can take up a bed for months. But the system already built that in. Had enough beds for the 'usual' amount of car crash victims. Same for the 'usual' amount of flu patients. Remember, they are still in those hospital beds. Plus the lung cancer, heart failure, etc.. patients.
The problem with the COVID pandemic is not the absolute number of ICU needy patients, but the ridiculous number occurring all at once in a given area (Italy, NYC, etc..)
I stand corrected. My argument towards DarkOz remains the same.Quote: SOOPOOThis is just not true. Car crash victims can take up a bed for months. But the system already built that in. Had enough beds for the 'usual' amount of car crash victims. Same for the 'usual' amount of flu patients. Remember, they are still in those hospital beds. Plus the lung cancer, heart failure, etc.. patients.
The problem with the COVID pandemic is not the absolute number of ICU needy patients, but the ridiculous number occurring all at once in a given area (Italy, NYC, etc..)
I read 2 days later that a store employee was diagnosed with COVID-19 that same day and is now under mandatory isolation and is being monitored by the health department. They're doing contact tracing. I don't know if they are checking surveillance tapes to see who this worker came in contact with but it could be thousands of people over a day or two.
Should plan on being unexpectedly put under a 14 day stay at home order with no grocery store runs from now on.
Looks like my local County offices area are starting to count deaths in their own complexes.
Quote: EvenBobOn Jan 23rd I rented a car and
went to the casino twice that
weekend. Took Lyft to and from
the airport as usual. On Jan 28th
I got terribly sick with the flu.
Constant coughing, 101-103
temp, horrible fatigue.
I have never been that sick before.
Fever finally broke after 3 days,
and the cough abated after 10
days. But not the fatigue. I had
to take a 90 min nap every 3
hours for weeks afterwards.
Every recovered covid victim
I've seen interviewed says they
still suffer from fatigue. It's 2
1/2 months later for me and
I'm just this week feeling almost
normal. I'm betting I had the
damn thing.
Good to hear you are recovering.
If/when an antibody test is available, will you get one? What about a vaccine?
And since you believe you already had it, how worried are you about re-infection or re-emergence?
Quote: SanchoPanza"The Navy hospital ship USNS Comfort and the Defense Department-run alternate care facility at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center, both in New York City, are now taking patients with COVID-19, defense medical officials said." --DOD
You know exactly what you did
First you cited a different article that said they weren't accepting Covid patients
Now that they changed their minds you link to the newer article and point to it to discredit me.
You sir, are the discredited one. React to the article you link to and stop trying to instigate
They clearly will fill up with patients NOW THAT THEY ARE ACCEPTING COVID-19 illnesses
The lead-up problem is with the governor and mayor's actions and in some areas inactions:Quote: SOOPOOThe problem with the COVID pandemic is not the absolute number of ICU needy patients, but the ridiculous number occurring all at once in a given area (Italy, NYC, etc..)
"New York has lost a staggering 20,000 hospital beds over the last two decades to budget cuts and insurance overhauls, complicating local and state efforts to battle the coronavirus, according to records and experts.
"The Empire State had 73,931 licensed hospital beds in 2000 before years of cuts and closures shrank the number to just 53,000 in 2020, according to records obtained by the New York State Nurses Association from the state Health Department and stats provided by officials.
"Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Tuesday the health officials believe they will need anywhere from 55,000 to 110,000 hospital beds to treat the expected wave of coronavirus victims." -- NY Post
Quote: SanchoPanzaThe lead-up problem is with the governor and mayor's actions and in some areas inactions:
"New York has lost a staggering 20,000 hospital beds over the last two decades to budget cuts and insurance overhauls, complicating local and state efforts to battle the coronavirus, according to records and experts.
"The Empire State had 73,931 licensed hospital beds in 2000 before years of cuts and closures shrank the number to just 53,000 in 2020, according to records obtained by the New York State Nurses Association from the state Health Department and stats provided by officials.
"Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Tuesday the health officials believe they will need anywhere from 55,000 to 110,000 hospital beds to treat the expected wave of coronavirus victims." -- NY Post
Remember, I'm no fan of Cuomo, but there has been a changing need for hospital beds over the past decade, and (not including coronavirus) continues. I'll give one simple example. 10 years ago NO total hip or total knee patients went home the same day, all requiring a hospital bed probably averaging 3 days. Today, maybe 1/3 go home on THE SAME DAY. The rest probably average 1-2 days in hospital. So that's a thousand less beds needed. Gall bladder? Unlikely to stay in a hospital bed overnight. Lung resection? Used to be 7 days, now averages 4.
So it makes sense to have fewer hospital beds. Now, if you think as a public policy you should have thousands of extra beds, meaning unused beds, available, then that is quite an expense. Remember, a 'bed' includes the medical staff, nursing staff, therapist staff, secretarial staff, etc... associated with it, not just the actual bed. Interestingly, my hospital had unused floors due to the downsizing, as a lot of the work has moved to surgicenters. It was quite easy in this pandemic to just get some beds in there and open up these new beds. And hopefully in a few weeks they will be closed again.
The original statement, so conveniently lost in the tirade, was the totally unattributed statement that New York hospitals are "overrun." The responsive posts are proof that is not the case, despite pathetic mismanagement and fear mongering.Quote: darkozFirst you cited a different article that said they weren't accepting Covid patients. Now that they changed their minds you link to the newer article and point to it to discredit me. You sir, are the discredited one. React to the article you link to and stop trying to instigate. They clearly will fill up with patients NOW THAT THEY ARE ACCEPTING COVID-19 illnesses
Most of the last pandemics I believe were terrorism. I don't believe that the 2009 Swine Flu came from a village in Mexico. A pathologist saw fatal respiratory deaths in 1917 in British soldiers one year before the Spanish Flu
https://www.statnews.com/2018/12/05/1918-spanish-flu-unraveling-mystery/
Quote: jjjooogggMy Chinese friend who drove from the Gobi desert to the Coast didn't see dog meat for sale. He said it was more common 30 years ago for the need for food. Now, poor Chinese mainly eat noodles. 3% of the Swiss eat dog and cat. Nigerians eat dog. About 10 countries still do.
I don't know if talking about eating dogs is going to hijack this thread or digress, but as long as you brought it up, I have a few things to say about it. First of all, those sick freaks have a big dog-eating festival every year. It is BARBARIC. Cruel and barbaric, and I don't care if that's the only time they do it, once a year is bad enough. I also don't care what country we're talking about, China, Switzerland, Phillipines, Korea, or on the moon. If you eat a dog, you are a lousy pos who should eat dog sh*t and die.
Let me explain why. A DOG, will protect your children. A dog, doesn't care what color your skin is, what religion you are, what your gender is, a dog will BE YOUR BEST FRIEND if you just show him some love. Anyone who eats dogs, or even abuses them, needs to get an ass kicking like there's never been an ass kicking before.
Why did you even bring it up?
My friend told me about the dog festival. He said he thought it was banned. I didn't say that no Chinese eat dog.
Quote: bobbartopDid you all see the latest Bill Maher video about the virus? Sometimes he's funny.
I think the hierarchy of this site needs to see this video. Don’t know if I have ever agreed with Bill Maher, but if every point he made was a home run, Hall of Fame. Let’s see if this shames a few people into doing what is right.
Quote: jjjooogggThe video you posted said that Chinese eat bats.
My friend told me about the dog festival. I never said that no Chinese eat dog. He said he thought it was banned.
Other countries don't believe in eating cows.
You completely edited this post, even though it doesn't say it was edited, you still completely changed it.
Quote: bobbartopYou completely edited this post, even though it doesn't say it was edited, you still completely changed it.
Now you did it again. You edited your post and changed it completely, at least twice, even though it does not say it was edited. Every time I refresh my browser it is something completely different. Suggestion: Say what you have to say, and if you want to add more or change it, write ANOTHER one.
Quote: bobbartopNow you did it again. You edited your post and changed it completely, at least twice, even though it does not say it was edited. Every time I refresh my browser it is something completely different. Suggestion: Say what you have to say, and if you want to add more or change it, write ANOTHER one.
Wouldn't it be easier and clearer to everyone to put everything in one post? I also do alot of grammar editing.
1} The first batch of data covers 6,479 hospitalized patients, roughly four times the number of patients analyzed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in a surveillance report released Wednesday.
2) The average age of a patient hospitalized with covid-19, the company said, is 59.6 years old. Mortality rises sharply with age: It is just 1 percent for hospitalized patients under the age of 20, 4 percent for ages 20 to 44, 9 percent for 45 to 54, 13 percent for 55 to 64, 23 percent for 65 to 74, 31 percent for 75 to 84, and 40 percent for 85 and up.
3) According to CarePort, an 85-year-old who has no chronic diseases and is hospitalized faces a mortality risk between 22 and 27 percent. But if the person has what is known as existing acute kidney injury, the mortality rate spikes to 39 to 49 percent.
“The strongest signal for us based on our data seems to be kidney disease,” Hu said.
4)The data compiled by CarePort found that a 65-year-old with multiple chronic conditions — hypertension, diabetes, kidney disease and obesity — has the same mortality rate as a 75-year-old with no such chronic conditions.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/medical-databases-show-1-in-10-hospitalized-middle-aged-coronavirus-patients-in-us-do-not-survive/ar-BB12uj4s?ocid=spartanntp
Quote: DeMango
I think the hierarchy of this site needs to see this video. Don’t know if I have ever agreed with Bill Maher, but if every point he made was a home run, Hall of Fame. Let’s see if this shames a few people into doing what is right.
I found one of Bill Maher's home run:
Quote: jjjooogggApparently, this problem is in numerous countries.
I don't want to hear anymore about eating dogs. You brought it up, for some reason. Any more on that subject and I'll block you. Sorry.
125 million masks that he didn't have
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/coronavirus-face-mask-fraud-christopher-parris.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage
Quote: bobbartopI don't know if talking about eating dogs is going to hijack this thread or digress, but as long as you brought it up, I have a few things to say about it. First of all, those sick freaks have a big dog-eating festival every year. It is BARBARIC. Cruel and barbaric, and I don't care if that's the only time they do it, once a year is bad enough. I also don't care what country we're talking about, China, Switzerland, Phillipines, Korea, or on the moon. If you eat a dog, you are a lousy pos who should eat dog sh*t and die.
Let me explain why. A DOG, will protect your children. A dog, doesn't care what color your skin is, what religion you are, what your gender is, a dog will BE YOUR BEST FRIEND if you just show him some love. Anyone who eats dogs, or even abuses them, needs to get an ass kicking like there's never been an ass kicking before.
Why did you even bring it up?
A piece of advice to you as a dog person - avoid/don't ever google how dogs (and other animals) are often being "prepared"/killed and cooked in China, it really is nauseating.
end
When I lived in Queens, we had a colorful character I will call Ruth.
Ruth was an old Vaudeville girl, supposedly being an original Floory Dory girl.
Anyways, she was rich enough to be eccentric and one of her causes was getting innocent men out of jail. So she helps this one guy get free after about ten years in prison and a year or so later, he gets something like a million dollar settlement.
He goes out and does so much bazooka that his heart blows up and he dies, leaving Ruth the settlement.
About two months later, Ruth has a heart attack and dies in her apartment. Being elderly and having no family, she lies undiscovered for a number of days, during which her two poodles did what hungry dogs will do, eat whatever is available.
The final irony is that she died without any relatives so all the money went back to the state.
The best practice for naming diseases, WHO states, should consist of generic terms that describe the disease’s symptoms, or, if the pathogen that causes the disease is known, it should be part of the disease name”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5e727ecdc5b6f5b7c53d5c48/amp
https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2015/naming-new-diseases/en/
Quote: jjjoooggg“In 2015, the World Health Organization issued new guidelines for naming new infectious diseases in humans. The guidelines are meant to “minimize unnecessary negative effects on nations, economies and people.”
The best practice for naming diseases, WHO states, should consist of generic terms that describe the disease’s symptoms, or, if the pathogen that causes the disease is known, it should be part of the disease name”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5e727ecdc5b6f5b7c53d5c48/amp
https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2015/naming-new-diseases/en/
Thanks! Buttttt...... I'm not sure the WHO has a lot (or any?) credibility now!
Quote: SOOPOOThanks! Buttttt...... I'm not sure the WHO has a lot (or any?) credibility now!
The WHO hasn't been the same since Tommy!
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/06/160627160935.htm
There is a definite irony in that (Spanish Flu didn't originate in Spain or any Spanish speaking country)
At a defense installation that uses millimeter waves they found that all of the bacteria in the surrounding area had developed broad-band resistance to antibiotics. Basically the millimeter waves tend to accelerate the reaction of bacteria with their environment -in the case I'm specifically citing, the accelerated interactions seem to have caused the bacteria to rapidly develop resistance.
5G waves have also been shown to impede the transfer of H- ions across cell membranes. Not a big deal for humans, because the waves never penetrate the outer epidermal layer, but if you are a one cell organism in the air it could be a very big deal.
I imagine that there is Zero data on millimeter wave effects on airborne viruses. But I don't see any reason to presume that they have no effects.
We still have to deal with dangerous radiation from color television sets.
Also those microwave oven are deforming unborn fetuses
Hell, I am not sure if we can even travel at 40 mph on a train. We might melt.
BTW - all of those are real concerns people had about those new technologies (the fears were real that is, not the actual dangers)
Quote: darkozForget 5G problems.
We still have to deal with dangerous radiation from color television sets.
Also those microwave oven are deforming unborn fetuses
Hell, I am not sure if we can even travel at 40 mph on a train. We might melt.
BTW - all of those are real concerns people had about those new technologies (the fears were real that is, not the actual dangers)
I'm a physicist with a deep understanding of electromagnetic waves. Millimeter waves used in 5g are completely absorbed by tissue but only penetrate to about 0.5 mm. They are completely different than radiofrequency waves or x-rays (the TV concern) or microwaves used in microwave ovens.
When someone recommends a coronavirus drug you scream "There's no conclusive proof of efficacy." But when someone says that 5G millimeter waves are safe, you shrug your shoulders and say "Awww, no proof needed. No reason to believe a physicist on this issue."
DO, Not directly answering that with a yes or no....Quote: darkoz
I guess the mods probably prefer me just to add to that one.
Maybe they can chime in
You already trod the fine line with another thread that drew comparison to a few fictional characters. The metaphor was not wasted on me...... Take care.
These assorted covid threads are already politically charged in many ways with a few members pushing the envelope.
I personally don't want to suspend anyone at these difficult times. We don't need any more drama or controversy.
TIA
Quote: OnceDearDO, Not directly answering that with a yes or no....
You already trod the fine line with another thread that drew comparison to a few fictional characters. The metaphor was not wasted on me...... Take care.
These assorted covid threads are already politically charged in many ways with a few members pushing the envelope.
I personally don't want to suspend anyone at these difficult times. We don't need any more drama or controversy.
TIA
Respectfully,
There is no metaphors about a real drug that may change the predicament we are with Coronavirus. It's not a joke thread I was proposing.
I was just questioning how the mods felt about my adding to an inundation of covid threads.
With gambling temporarily closed everywhere it probably makes sense for such an inundation though. It's the primary point on everyone mind
Quote: gordonm888I'm a physicist with a deep understanding of electromagnetic waves. Millimeter waves used in 5g are completely absorbed by tissue but only penetrate to about 0.5 mm. They are completely different than radiofrequency waves or x-rays (the TV concern) or microwaves used in microwave ovens.
When someone recommends a coronavirus drug you scream "There's no conclusive proof of efficacy." But when someone says that 5G millimeter waves are safe, you shrug your shoulders and say "Awww, no proof needed. No reason to believe a physicist on this issue."
Well I will take your word since you lay out good credentials
But the current theory is Coronavirus is a product of the 5G towers. You aren't endorsing that, correct?
Quote: darkozWell I will take your word since you lay out good credentials
But the current theory is Coronavirus is a product of the 5G towers. You aren't endorsing that, correct?
Did you read his posts? I thought you were engaging with him, but your question makes me think you didn’t read them.
