Coronavirus math

2009 pandemic by country

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country

2009 pandemic world total Stats

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/swine-flu-8-facts-about-the-world-s-last-pandemic-in-2009.html?fbclid=IwAR0grksKBMcVo77hQVC6_jcyVhD04-sLevdQCwB37bpvdIYXuN4qNgXIW_I

2009 had a vaccine in oct 2009.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccination/vaccine_keyfacts.htm?fbclid=IwAR1T4c1PhVm08X4j6HbQ3QXiIwXANZ4B2aUhu-A-DdI9p-RwsEU9hLvF2yQ

As we get a little further away from the flu season we need to reopen the country and keep the elderly, people at high risk, and smokers sheltering in place. The rest of us need to develop some herd immunity.

Since we've done such a large prison release, perhaps we could put smokers in the prisons to protect them, and the rest of us from them, and the diseases that often follow the smokers.

Quote: DeMango

Couple of Doctors at Stanford thinking .01% mortality nationwide, 20-40K, or same as the normal flu season.

WE will be over 2,000 dead by Saturday and almost certainly over 5,000 in a week. How many dead will it take before you stop comparing it to the flu? Do you have any reason to think these daily numbers won't keep going up for the next month?
This is a hundred year storm.Hopefully it doesn't grow into a five hundred year one.
The Government just ordered GM to start producing vitally needed goods, but we are looking at mid June for them to convert production lines.I assume that means they think this will still be a problem after that. If it doubles once a week for ten weeks, we are screwed.
A Vaccine is many months away, at best and if those anti-malaria drugs work, the math still looks bad.
If you have a reason to be optimistic, please share.

Quote: billryan

WE will be over 2,000 dead by Saturday and almost certainly over 5,000 in a week. How many dead will it take before you stop comparing it to the flu? Do you have any reason to think these daily numbers won't keep going up for the next month?
This is a hundred year storm.Hopefully it doesn't grow into a five hundred year one.
The Government just ordered GM to start producing vitally needed goods, but we are looking at mid June for them to convert production lines.I assume that means they think this will still be a problem after that. If it doubles once a week for ten weeks, we are screwed.
A Vaccine is many months away, at best and if those anti-malaria drugs work, the math still looks bad.
If you have a reason to be optimistic, please share.

Can you read? The math is changing with more stats coming in. 1% mortality is more than 3 million. In the US. Seems that’s what you want.

Quote: DeMango

Can you read? The math is changing with more stats coming in. 1% mortality is more than 3 million. In the US. Seems that’s what you want.

The math is getting worse. Or am I missing something?
What I want is for everyone to do their part, like the President asked , and I'd love people to take this seriously.

The NYPD has 12% of its Officers out , many in self quarantine. Many exposed by people who shouldn't have been there. What happens if that keeps pace with the virus. As more people get sick, there will be less people to care for them. If this is anything like Italy or Spain, hundreds of Doctors will die. Who replaces them?

Quote: onenickelmiracle

I don't think take-out delivery food is safe,

SIGH :(

We have avoided all take-out since our pseudo quarantine. They touch the bag, may breathe on the food or packaging, etc.... Son went to pick up a pizza, said although not crushed like a sardine on a New York Subway, it was crowded waiting.

I just realized I have been wrong to say COVID-19 or COVID19, COVID-19 is the name of the disease produced by the virus. COVID-19 is caused by the virus SARS-COV2, just like AIDS is caused by HIV.

Quote: billryan

The math is getting worse. Or am I missing something?
What I want is for everyone to do their part, like the President asked , and I'd love people to take this seriously.

The problem is, there is a lot of math out there. The more that gets tested the worse it looks. The President even predicted that would happen. If, if we believe China it’s over right? A lot of chicken littles out there who don’t want somebody re-elected. And they are in charge of most of the press, spreading a ton of misinformation.

Today I got a “get out of jail” card, actually a letter from the USPS. This letter will inform any and all authorities that I am an essential worker, authorized to drive a car to and from work. In addition to Postal ID badge. This is knuckin futs. Today the New York Times blamed the Christians! There are going to be a lot of disappointed folks when this clears up without martial law.

Quote: DeMango

Couple of Doctors at Stanford thinking .01% mortality nationwide, 20-40K, or same as the normal flu season.

Really? That low??

Do these Stanford doctors make any assumptions about hospitals functioning well or poorly? Is this a news interview? Or, a peer-reviewed journal article with a full explanation and a more detailed data analysis? I sure would like to know more... link, perhaps?

Quote: DeMango

Couple of Doctors at Stanford thinking .01% mortality nationwide, 20-40K, or same as the normal flu season.

So Italy has a complete healthcare breakdown every flu season. They just never showed it until this year.