Coronavirus math

Quote: rxwine

Btw, did you lose your sense of smell? Never heard of that with the flu.

That's VERY common with colds.

This is what I was saying, if you had it with no serious symptoms, there have to be 99 other, 3 had to die, 20 had to need the ICU. We didn't see this. If you or anyone had it, all the bad cases had to come at the same time. We haven't see this. Lots of people have been telling themselves this, but again, maybe we can't see a planet, but we can calculate the wobble and know there is a planet, there has to be a wobble for there to be a planet, cannot have a planet you can't see without the gravitational wobble. If we're the wobble, the sickness we're not sure of, the sun( the major illness) has to exist clearly. We're still at risk.

Well that was before, now with some cases being verified where we live, maybe during this time, we may have had it. Sounds just about the same, just not as likely to be a survivor when you're really a COVID VIRGIN.

I don't think take-out delivery food is safe, I will no longer be having it. If someone spits on your pizza by accident, who knows, I think you're getting it if you're not microwaving the food really well. Who will do this to a salad or a hot pizza. This is stress, at some point in the future, we are either dead or recovered, or somehow unaffected, this will be where to focus.

SIGH :(

It will spread by a factor of 10 every 6 days, unless you throw in some social distancing then it might take 8-10 days.
This will crash the hospital system. With no ICUs available, the disease mortality rate will be running to 15% from then on.
So America hits 100,000 cases by the weekend, it could hit a million cases by April 7, hit 10 million cases by April 17, hit 100 million cases by April 27.

Extreme prolonged lockdowns could slow this whole thing down, but you'll still crash the hospital system by the end of summer.
So, if lockdowns are outlawed, hospitals crash, the disease mortality rate goes to 15%, but everybody else doing normal things can't go to the hospital, period! Get in a car crash on the way to work? The hospital is a hot zone, can't go in there. The mortality rate of people dying doing other things could add up to 20%. So 15% + 20% = about a 1/3rd chance of dying in this pandemic in America.

What China is doing is interesting but they have to ban visitors now because everybody else is still contagious. Other states are looking at New York and telling New Yorkers to quarantine for 14 days or leave their state. I expect the military will shut down the New York State border within 2 weeks.

So if you live in a city of 1.5 million, 225,000 could die from the disease, 300,000 could die of the anarchy of Mad Max, for a total of 525,000 or just over 1/3rd. All that could take 2-4 months. YMMV

Quote: Keyser

That's VERY common with colds.

I never have. Unless my nose is so stuffy that I can't breathe through it.

I believe rxwine is talking about losing smell/taste before you show any real symptoms of Covid-19, which has been reported more recently.

Quote: ChumpChange

It will spread by a factor of 10 every 6 days, unless you throw in some social distancing then it might take 8-10 days.
This will crash the hospital system. With no ICUs available, the disease mortality rate will be running to 15% from then on.
So America hits 100,000 cases by the weekend, it could hit a million cases by April 7, hit 10 million cases by April 17, hit 100 million cases by April 27.

Extreme prolonged lockdowns could slow this whole thing down, but you'll still crash the hospital system by the end of summer.
So, if lockdowns are outlawed, hospitals crash, the disease mortality rate goes to 15%, but everybody else doing normal things can't go to the hospital, period! Get in a car crash on the way to work? The hospital is a hot zone, can't go in there. The mortality rate of people dying doing other things could add up to 20%. So 15% + 20% = about a 1/3rd chance of dying in this pandemic in America.

What China is doing is interesting but they have to ban visitors now because everybody else is still contagious. Other states are looking at New York and telling New Yorkers to quarantine for 14 days or leave their state. I expect the military will shut down the New York State border within 2 weeks.

So if you live in a city of 1.5 million, 225,000 could die from the disease, 300,000 could die of the anarchy of Mad Max, for a total of 525,000 or just over 1/3rd. All that could take 2-4 months. YMMV

Hoover dam, what a load of garbage.

One thing we need to realize is that the mortality rate of 1-3% is probably way high. I would guess it’s significantly under 1% given proper medical care.

At least in the US, the only people getting tested are those who show up to the hospital with severe symptoms, so the mortality rate among those who are tested will be exaggerated.

Obviously the mortality rate will go up as ventilators/medical resources become strained.

Iceland was in a unique position to have the capability to test a huge percentage of their population, They reported that among those who tested positive, something like 60% were completely asymptomatic.

You will continue to hear reports of healthy 30 somethings dying from this. With so many people getting infected, that is expected. Although not common, young and healthy people die from the flu every year, you just never hear about it.

Who knows why some people get 0 symptoms and others end up in the ICU. It’s really just a genetic lottery at this point.

Quote: DeMango

Hoover dam, what a load of garbage.

Yeah. Those numbers are pretty off I think. A factor of ten every 6 days isn't sustainable I think with the current data. I'm on the pessimistic side still, but I'm thinking we'll still be under 100k deaths nationwide. Hopefully closer to 25k-50k.

Quote: gamerfreak

Who knows why some people get 0 symptoms and others end up in the ICU. It’s really just a genetic lottery at this point.

Yeah this part of the disease is quite scary to me. I'm thinking your genetics can help or hurt you with this. :(

2009 pandemic by country

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country

2009 pandemic world total Stats

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/swine-flu-8-facts-about-the-world-s-last-pandemic-in-2009.html?fbclid=IwAR0grksKBMcVo77hQVC6_jcyVhD04-sLevdQCwB37bpvdIYXuN4qNgXIW_I

2009 pandemic had a vaccine in 2009.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccination/vaccine_keyfacts.htm?fbclid=IwAR1T4c1PhVm08X4j6HbQ3QXiIwXANZ4B2aUhu-A-DdI9p-RwsEU9hLvF2yQ

Quote: tringlomane

Yeah. Those numbers are pretty off I think. A factor of ten every 6 days isn't sustainable I think with the current data. I'm on the pessimistic side still, but I'm thinking we'll still be under 100k deaths nationwide. Hopefully closer to 25k-50k.

Couple of Doctors at Stanford thinking .01% mortality nationwide, 20-40K, or same as the normal flu season.