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mcallister3200
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December 18th, 2021 at 2:41:29 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Just speculating but I imagine South Africa doesn't have the obesity problem the US has so how it plays out here may not follow the same patterns.
link to original post



Good point. Another factor on that front could be that South Africa has much lower vaccination rates. Therefore a higher percentage of those infections were likely reinfections which tend to be unlikely to be considered severe anyway. That part can swing both ways I guess as far as likelihood of severity, depending on if the unvaxxed were previously infected.
Last edited by: mcallister3200 on Dec 18, 2021
ChumpChange
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December 18th, 2021 at 6:05:16 PM permalink
Do lateral flow tests detect Omicron?
Rapid or lateral flow tests (LFTs), which can be used at home, tell you if you're negative or positive for coronavirus, but they can't tell you which variant of the virus you are infected with.

If you get a positive LFT result, you have a legal obligation to self-isolate immediately and must get a PCR test as soon as possible to confirm the result.

In standard PCR tests, Omicron has what's known as an "S-gene dropout" (which Delta hasn't, in most cases) and that gives a clue that it could be the new variant.

But not all "S-gene dropouts" will necessarily be Omicron - full genomic sequencing is needed to be sure.

The advice for people with Covid symptoms or who have a positive test result for Covid (for any variant) remains the same - you must stay at home and self-isolate for 10 days.
In England, from Tuesday 14 December, people who are double-vaccinated and come into contact with a person with Covid (all variants) should take daily lateral flow tests for seven days, rather than immediately self-isolating.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59460252
ChumpChange
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December 18th, 2021 at 6:11:28 PM permalink
Covid: Dutch go into Christmas lockdown over Omicron wave
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59713503
ChumpChange
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December 18th, 2021 at 6:16:54 PM permalink
Germany has become the latest European country to ban most travellers from Britain, to try to slow the spread of the Omicron variant.

German nationals and residents will still be allowed to enter from the UK.

They must have a negative test and quarantine for two weeks, regardless of whether they have been vaccinated.

The measures take effect on Monday. France has already introduced similar restrictions. Coronavirus infections are surging in Britain.

Denmark, France, Norway and Lebanon have also been added to Germany's high risk list and travel from those countries will also be restricted.

France is also worried about the spread of Omicron in the UK and authorities there banned UK tourists from travelling between the two countries on Saturday.
Under its new rules, UK citizens now need a "compelling reason" to enter France, with trips for tourism or business banned.
Hauliers, transport workers and French nationals are exempt.

A rush of passengers travelling to France on Friday to beat the country's ban on UK tourists led to a knock-on effect on freight traffic, resulting in long queues of lorries.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59715820
mcallister3200
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December 19th, 2021 at 7:48:51 AM permalink
Oh no, they are dumping barrels of at home covid tests into the Boston Harbor.
kewlj
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December 19th, 2021 at 9:41:36 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Oh no, they are dumping barrels of at home covid tests into the Boston Harbor.



Easy solution. Go for a swim each morning in the Boston Harbor and if the water turns from brownish-green to blee, you either have Covid or are pregnant.
OnceDear
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December 19th, 2021 at 9:46:41 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Oh no, they are dumping barrels of at home covid tests into the Boston Harbor.
link to original post

I'm guessing that's a joke, but I don't get it..... Something related to the Boston tea Party and protesting against Britain
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
mcallister3200
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December 19th, 2021 at 9:54:33 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: mcallister3200

Oh no, they are dumping barrels of at home covid tests into the Boston Harbor.
link to original post

I'm guessing that's a joke, but I don't get it..... Something related to the Boston tea Party and protesting against Britain
link to original post



Oh, it’s a stretch for sure. But a slight tie in between countries putting pointless travel restrictions on UK and some Americans protesting against any sort of covid restrictions. I just like Boston Harbor jokes.
billryan
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December 19th, 2021 at 11:01:37 AM permalink
The Dept. of Health in Arizona says their statistics show you are fifteen times more likely to die from covid if you are unvaccinated than those fully vaccinated.
The local paper compared and contrasted Arizona's response to Washington States. Both states have similar populations and urban/rural mixes yet Arizona has 23,000 dead compared to 10,000 in Washington.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
mcallister3200
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December 19th, 2021 at 12:19:07 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The Dept. of Health in Arizona says their statistics show you are fifteen times more likely to die from covid if you are unvaccinated than those fully vaccinated.
The local paper compared and contrasted Arizona's response to Washington States. Both states have similar populations and urban/rural mixes yet Arizona has 23,000 dead compared to 10,000 in Washington.
link to original post



Must be the presence of valley fever in the southwest but not PNW, that must be it.
billryan
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December 19th, 2021 at 12:37:50 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: billryan

The Dept. of Health in Arizona says their statistics show you are fifteen times more likely to die from covid if you are unvaccinated than those fully vaccinated.
The local paper compared and contrasted Arizona's response to Washington States. Both states have similar populations and urban/rural mixes yet Arizona has 23,000 dead compared to 10,000 in Washington.
link to original post



Must be the presence of valley fever in the southwest but not PNW, that must be it.
link to original post



The article makes you wonder what people would be willing to sacrifice to save 13,000 fellow Arizonians.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
rxwine
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December 19th, 2021 at 12:44:03 PM permalink
Quote:


Conservationists fear that horseshoe crabs, a 450-million-year-old living fossil, will be pushed to the brink of extinction because of the value of their blood to the pharmaceutical industry. Horseshoe crab blood provides a natural source of limulus amebocyte lysate (LAL) which is used to test vaccines, drugs, and medical devices to ensure that they aren’t contaminated with dangerous bacterial toxins called endotoxins.

There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
OnceDear
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December 19th, 2021 at 1:06:32 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I've yet to see any evidence this strain is milder than Delta. Seems to be a lot of wishful thinking and the like. Hopefully, it is the case but the evidence isn't there right now.
link to original post


Over 70% of coronavirus cases in London are now likely caused by the new variant, according to UKHSA data.
And the Uk Gov have said that Omicron is now the dominant strain here, That was quick!
Oh and we have our first tranche of omicron deaths and hospitalisations. 7 dead reported yesterday.

"7 Deaths From Omicron Covid-19 Coronavirus Variant In UK, Showing It’s Not The ‘Omicold’"

Meanwhile, our neighbour in the Netherlands have just announced a new very strict lockdown regime.
Britains medical advisory commitee 'SAGE' are pleading with our government to impose restrictions before it's too late. But our incumbent majority party are resisting.
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3160317/coronavirus-england-has-hundreds-thousands-new-omicron-cases?module=storypackage&pgtype=homepage
Quote:

Infections could peak as high as 2 million a day some time between late December and January, the UK government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies said
Its advice to bring back Covid-19 restrictions creates a dilemma for Britain’s PM Boris Johnson, who has vowed not to put the country back into lockdown

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Keyser
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December 19th, 2021 at 4:07:59 PM permalink
The death rate from the Omicron variant of the China Virus doesn't seem to be nearly as severe. Maybe it will help bring about the end of the pandemic.

It's interesting that here in the US, the states with the strictest lockdowns and mask mandates have been hit the hardest verses the other states.
billryan
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December 19th, 2021 at 4:36:16 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

The death rate from the Omicron variant of the China Virus doesn't seem to be nearly as severe. Maybe it will help bring about the end of the pandemic.

It's interesting that here in the US, the states with the strictest lockdowns and mask mandates have been hit the hardest verses the other states.
link to original post



Arizona has almost no restrictions but one of the highest death rates. Montana has the highest death rate and no restrictions.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
gordonm888
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December 19th, 2021 at 4:55:36 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The Dept. of Health in Arizona says their statistics show you are fifteen times more likely to die from covid if you are unvaccinated than those fully vaccinated.
The local paper compared and contrasted Arizona's response to Washington States. Both states have similar populations and urban/rural mixes yet Arizona has 23,000 dead compared to 10,000 in Washington.
link to original post



Doesn't Arizona have a much larger retirement population than Washington State? (i mean, virtually no one moves to Washington State to retire, correct?) The difference in the number of elderly in the two states might very well explain that difference.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
billryan
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December 19th, 2021 at 5:56:36 PM permalink
Interesting theory.
The first google results I found had Arizona with 1,258,000 people over 65 and Washington with 1,164,000. I assume that doesn't count snowbirds so you might add a bunch more. I've met several RVers who summer in Washington and winter in Arizona. I've no idea how people like that are counted.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
OnceDear
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December 20th, 2021 at 3:02:40 AM permalink
Quote: Keyser

The death rate from the Omicron variant of the China Virus doesn't seem to be nearly as severe. Maybe it will help bring about the end of the pandemic.
link to original post

We have the same wishful thinking over here in Europe/UK. Fact is the time lag between infections and eventual deaths leaves us with paper thin evidence either way.
Time will tell. Whether we believe whatever evidence time gives us, will be another matter.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
DeMango
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December 20th, 2021 at 5:35:06 AM permalink
evidence time gives us? Shirley you jest. Is that, "time" a new news organization? Right now RSA seems to have the most unbiased news.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
mcallister3200
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December 20th, 2021 at 5:45:45 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

evidence time gives us? Shirley you jest. Is that, "time" a new news organization? Right now RSA seems to have the most unbiased news.
link to original post



It’s really simple and I’m sure you can understand it. Hospitalizations (if there are many hospitalized) lag behind infection. Deaths among hospitalized generally come weeks after hospitalization. This variant really just ramped up its spread in the US within the last two weeks. So while we can be hopeful, we won’t get a very good data point until mid January or so on now it interacts with our population which is older and more unhealthy weight wise.
OnceDear
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December 20th, 2021 at 6:47:22 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

evidence time gives us? Shirley you jest. Is that, "time" a new news organization? Right now RSA seems to have the most unbiased news.
link to original post

I was being serious. We really have very limited data on Omicron. Not familiar with RSA. I trust BBC and Reuters.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rxwine
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December 20th, 2021 at 7:18:52 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: DeMango

evidence time gives us? Shirley you jest. Is that, "time" a new news organization? Right now RSA seems to have the most unbiased news.
link to original post



It’s really simple and I’m sure you can understand it. Hospitalizations (if there are many hospitalized) lag behind infection. Deaths among hospitalized generally come weeks after hospitalization. This variant really just ramped up its spread in the US within the last two weeks. So while we can be hopeful, we won’t get a very good data point until mid January or so on now it interacts with our population which is older and more unhealthy weight wise.
link to original post



If it really is milder, more people might not be reporting they even got it.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
mcallister3200
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December 20th, 2021 at 7:26:43 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: DeMango

evidence time gives us? Shirley you jest. Is that, "time" a new news organization? Right now RSA seems to have the most unbiased news.
link to original post



It’s really simple and I’m sure you can understand it. Hospitalizations (if there are many hospitalized) lag behind infection. Deaths among hospitalized generally come weeks after hospitalization. This variant really just ramped up its spread in the US within the last two weeks. So while we can be hopeful, we won’t get a very good data point until mid January or so on now it interacts with our population which is older and more unhealthy weight wise.
link to original post



If it really is milder, more people might not be reporting they even got it.
link to original post



If it is significantly milder, that shouldn’t be an issue. Many people will never know they had it to report in the first place. A time will come when the focus really needs to shift from case numbers to outcomes if we are not already at that point.
ChumpChange
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December 20th, 2021 at 7:30:41 AM permalink
Jim Cramer of CNBC got COVID last Thursday with Omicron. He's triple dosed. Let's see how long he lasts.
There's TV footage of long lines for COVID tests on foot and in cars in NYC. TV also says most pharmacies on the east coast don't have any COVID tests left.
It could be Spring before there's any Omicron-specific vaccine, so everybody is being urged to get boosters now.
I don't know what dose is appropriate, and you probably don't get a choice.
If you see charts where cases peak, it could be because of a lack of testing.
OnceDear
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December 20th, 2021 at 7:42:53 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

If it really is milder, more people might not be reporting they even got it.
link to original post

And if half the people who get it are not noticing, then we deduce that it's twice as prevalent than we know it to be.... Which is already enormous.
We need to be just a teensy bit patient. We'll kno more by January, by which time we will or won't have had our superspreader Christmas.
Omicron is really such an unknown, but we are getting introduced to it pretty darned rapidly. Beware the 'Seems to be' milder. As gamblers we should know better than to grasp onto low sample sizes.
And Delta hasn't gone away!
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
billryan
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December 20th, 2021 at 7:44:57 AM permalink
I'd been scheduled for my booster for next week but I just got a call someone canceled at 11:15 today so I get to jump the line a bit. I'd be curious why someone would cancel their chance but this is Arizona.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
billryan
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December 20th, 2021 at 7:56:08 AM permalink
If Omicron follows the earlier patterns, the US should start to see significant upticks in deaths around Jan.15th. If there is no significant increase in deaths by the middle of Feb, we can begin to feel confident that it is in fact milder than earlier versions.

Until then we need to be vigilant and be pure.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ChumpChange
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December 20th, 2021 at 7:56:25 AM permalink
If there's 5K new cases per day in the NYC area today, there might be 50K new cases per day by New Year's Eve, and they're still debating whether to cancel the Times Square celebrations which would have too many people to count.

There's 89 city testing sites, and they'll open 23 more. They'll also make half a million tests available to the general public for free. There's how many people in NYC?

Epidemiologist says 800 people in Minnesota have died even though they had the booster. #Delta
OnceDear
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December 20th, 2021 at 8:42:48 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If there's 5K new cases per day in the NYC area today, there might be 50K new cases per day by New Year's Eve, and they're still debating whether to cancel the Times Square celebrations which would have too many people to count.

There's 89 city testing sites, and they'll open 23 more. They'll also make half a million tests available to the general public for free. There's how many people in NYC?

Epidemiologist says 800 people in Minnesota have died even though they had the booster. #Delta
link to original post

NYC pop 19.4 million
half a million tests sounds very low.

Another issue we are getting here, especially in London, is a very high rate of essential workers who are off sick or isolating. It's disrupting all sorts from shop supply chains to fire service availability... and shortage of health care workers at a time when hospitals are full.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
billryan
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December 20th, 2021 at 9:08:20 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: ChumpChange

If there's 5K new cases per day in the NYC area today, there might be 50K new cases per day by New Year's Eve, and they're still debating whether to cancel the Times Square celebrations which would have too many people to count.

There's 89 city testing sites, and they'll open 23 more. They'll also make half a million tests available to the general public for free. There's how many people in NYC?

Epidemiologist says 800 people in Minnesota have died even though they had the booster. #Delta
link to original post

NYC pop 19.4 million
half a million tests sounds very low.

Another issue we are getting here, especially in London, is a very high rate of essential workers who are off sick or isolating. It's disrupting all sorts from shop supply chains to fire service availability... and shortage of health care workers at a time when hospitals are full.
link to original post



NYC population is closer to eight million than nineteen, which is the metro area population. There are hundreds of thousands who live outside of the city proper who work in the city every day. NYC employees like cops and firemen have to live in the city or one of the six surrounding counties and most choose not to live in the city itself.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
kewlj
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December 20th, 2021 at 10:58:36 AM permalink
As a few others have said, severe illness, hospitalizations and death, lag behind cases by 3,4,5 weeks or more. We just don't have all the data yet. Very early data looks promising as far as severe illness, hospitalizations and death, but it is incomplete. I learned a long time ago, small sample sizes and incomplete data mean nothing. Every person who gambles with or without an advantage should know this.

I know there is fatigue out there as far as this freaking virus. I have it too. I want nothing more than to conclude that omicrom, is no more dangerous than other variants. Maybe spreads easier, but less severe. But it is going to take a couple more weeks of data for me to conclude that.

Luckily, I am on my year end break as far as casinos and casino play. I still go about my life, going out every day, doing things, just try to avoid people indoors in crowded places until I feel more comfortable.
OnceDear
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December 20th, 2021 at 12:08:55 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj Trimmed for brevity

As a few others have said, severe illness, hospitalizations and death, lag behind cases by 3,4,5 weeks or more. We just don't have all the data yet.
...
Very early data looks promising
...
I know there is fatigue out there as far as this freaking virus. I have it too.
...
link to original post



1> Some just cannot acknowledge that.
2> Can't say we are not all rooting for the same outcome.
3> We are all in the same boat. Some pay attention to the iceberg tearing out the side. Some shrug and chill out.

Whatever we believe, agree on or disagree on, omicron will do what it does. I hope we scaredy cats are wrong.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
kewlj
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December 20th, 2021 at 12:14:00 PM permalink
Las Vegas super-spreader.

As a blackjack player, living in Las Vegas, I have gotten away from playing the strip in recent years. There are better games and opportunities for me at non-strip properties. I usually have 3 or 4 strip properties in my regular rotation (meaning playable games for me), but the strip and parking and all is just such a pain in the butt, I play less than I should.

So in the last 2 years with covid, one of the things I have done is play fewer total rounds but at higher stakes to make up for it and still accumulate about the same total EV. Higher stakes means more strip play. Those are the casinos that handle higher stakes better.

So one of the things I started doing was parking at one end of the strip, buying a RTC pass (can buy it on your phone) and riding the deuce up and down the strip, especially on a Friday, Saturday evening and night when my higher play really blends in. I mean $5 for 24 hour pass beats parking fees and all that walking to and from different garages.

So public transportation in general, and the deuce bus specifically has to be about the worse place you can be as far as covid. People packed in, rubbing up against you to the point I sometimes feel like I am in a relationship with them. :/ And 50% don't or won't wear masks (or wear them on their chin) even though it is mandated on public transportation.

So I am thinking between the deuce and casinos, Las Vegas has got to be one of the bigger super-spreader things. Probably hard to track since people contract covid and then take it home to wherever..
AZDuffman
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December 20th, 2021 at 12:38:36 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj





So I am thinking between the deuce and casinos, Las Vegas has got to be one of the bigger super-spreader things. Probably hard to track since people contract covid and then take it home to wherever..
link to original post



In theory. But as we have seen from the Sturgis rally to filled stadiums, the whole "super spreader" thing is not to be feared like so many say they should.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
kewlj
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December 20th, 2021 at 12:49:27 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: kewlj



So I am thinking between the deuce and casinos, Las Vegas has got to be one of the bigger super-spreader things. Probably hard to track since people contract covid and then take it home to wherever..
link to original post



In theory. But as we have seen from the Sturgis rally to filled stadiums, the whole "super spreader" thing is not to be feared like so many say they should.
link to original post



We have seen this? Were people tracked for a month or more after leaving stadiums and Sturgis?

I would like to see that data. Can you provide it?

And by the way, most stadiums require people to be double Vaxed, which mattered a great deal at least until a few weeks ago, when Omicrom showed up.
AZDuffman
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December 20th, 2021 at 2:11:52 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: kewlj



So I am thinking between the deuce and casinos, Las Vegas has got to be one of the bigger super-spreader things. Probably hard to track since people contract covid and then take it home to wherever..
link to original post



In theory. But as we have seen from the Sturgis rally to filled stadiums, the whole "super spreader" thing is not to be feared like so many say they should.
link to original post



We have seen this? Were people tracked for a month or more after leaving stadiums and Sturgis?

I would like to see that data. Can you provide it?

And by the way, most stadiums require people to be double Vaxed, which mattered a great deal at least until a few weeks ago, when Omicrom showed up.
link to original post



See the data? Quite simple. We were told they would be "super spreader" events with people dropping dead. We did not see anything like that. All was normal after.

Stadiums are actually verifying people are vaxed? Or just the honor system?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
kewlj
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December 20th, 2021 at 2:27:09 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman


See the data? Quite simple. We were told they would be "super spreader" events with people dropping dead. We did not see anything like that. All was normal after.



Dropping dead? What do you think it is like a bug after getting sprayed with Raid? How many people returned home from Sturgis, felt sick 2 weeks later, got worse the following week, hospitalized in week 4 and died sometime after that? Show me THAT data and we can talk "normal after that".

Your statement is like the construction worker who falls from the 12th floor of a building he is working on. Halfway down someone yells out "how you doing" and his reply is "so far so good".
SOOPOO
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December 20th, 2021 at 2:36:00 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I'd been scheduled for my booster for next week but I just got a call someone canceled at 11:15 today so I get to jump the line a bit. I'd be curious why someone would cancel their chance but this is Arizona.
link to original post


When I left Buffalo late November you could get a new shot or booster just by walking in to any number of pharmacies. Fill out the requisite paperwork and then needle in arm. You actually have to wait in Arizona?
AZDuffman
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December 20th, 2021 at 2:37:48 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Quote: AZDuffman


See the data? Quite simple. We were told they would be "super spreader" events with people dropping dead. We did not see anything like that. All was normal after.



Dropping dead? What do you think it is like a bug after getting sprayed with Raid? How many people returned home from Sturgis, felt sick 2 weeks later, got worse the following week, hospitalized in week 4 and died sometime after that? Show me THAT data and we can talk "normal after that".



Actually you need to show it, you do not prove a negative.

We were told it would be the end of the world, people dropping dead all over. Sturgis has now happened twice and the world has gone on. Jam packed stadiums all over the nation and the world goes on. Face it, the lockdowns are not doing what you think they are doing. Though you remain free to stay at home.
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OnceDear
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December 20th, 2021 at 2:54:09 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Quote: AZDuffman


See the data? Quite simple. We were told they would be "super spreader" events with people dropping dead. We did not see anything like that. All was normal after.



Dropping dead? What do you think it is like a bug after getting sprayed with Raid? How many people returned home from Sturgis, felt sick 2 weeks later, got worse the following week, hospitalized in week 4 and died sometime after that? Show me THAT data and we can talk "normal after that".

Your statement is like the construction worker who falls from the 12th floor of a building he is working on. Halfway down someone yells out "how you doing" and his reply is "so far so good".
link to original post


More even than that. It did not need a visitor to the even to be ill or die, just the consequence that his infection had. I.e Attend the rally, get asymptomatic infection, go home and give it to granny who gives it to her friend at bingo, who dies along with her husband.
You see the deaths increase in the towns with no traced link to the event, because frankly contact tracing is not that great for that purpose. We deduce that the event was a superspreader from the visible tsunami of illness and death that we could have predicted by the very existence of the event.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
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December 20th, 2021 at 2:58:08 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Quote: AZDuffman




In theory. But as we have seen from the Sturgis rally to filled stadiums, the whole "super spreader" thing is not to be feared like so many say they should.



This is absolute hogwash.
link to original post


FYI. In case anyone grumbles. I see no personal insult here. It was a clear and qualified attack on AZD's post, not on AZD
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
unJon
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December 20th, 2021 at 3:07:53 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: rsactuary

Quote: AZDuffman




In theory. But as we have seen from the Sturgis rally to filled stadiums, the whole "super spreader" thing is not to be feared like so many say they should.



This is absolute hogwash.
link to original post


FYI. In case anyone grumbles. I see no personal insult here. It was a clear and qualified attack on AZD's post, not on AZD
link to original post



Let’s see how that precedent plays out when someone takes it to the MDawg thread.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AZDuffman
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December 20th, 2021 at 3:16:24 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: kewlj

Quote: AZDuffman


See the data? Quite simple. We were told they would be "super spreader" events with people dropping dead. We did not see anything like that. All was normal after.



Dropping dead? What do you think it is like a bug after getting sprayed with Raid? How many people returned home from Sturgis, felt sick 2 weeks later, got worse the following week, hospitalized in week 4 and died sometime after that? Show me THAT data and we can talk "normal after that".

Your statement is like the construction worker who falls from the 12th floor of a building he is working on. Halfway down someone yells out "how you doing" and his reply is "so far so good".
link to original post


More even than that. It did not need a visitor to the even to be ill or die, just the consequence that his infection had. I.e Attend the rally, get asymptomatic infection, go home and give it to granny who gives it to her friend at bingo, who dies along with her husband.
You see the deaths increase in the towns with no traced link to the event, because frankly contact tracing is not that great for that purpose. We deduce that the event was a superspreader from the visible tsunami of illness and death that we could have predicted by the very existence of the event.
link to original post



Like global warming, there is no control group. My premise is we did not see any unusual spread after it, same as we are not due to full stadiums now.

It keeps coming back to there are two groups in all of this. On one side are people to whom even 1 virus death is "too many" and are always in borderline fear that they are going to catch it and die. The other group is made up of people who while not going to hang out in a hospital ward of people sick from it neither are they, we, going to keep living holed up in fear denying ourselves enjoyment of life.

The first group resents that the second group is going about life. The first group tend to be Karens about the virus and other things. They are the Karens who try for a board seat on the HOA and then make sure all the mailbox posts are perfectly plumb. If the nightly news tells them we need to worry about something, they worry about it.

The second group just wants to be left alone.
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billryan
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December 21st, 2021 at 8:12:52 AM permalink
Looks like the US has had its first fatality, an unvaccinated man in Texas. News reports say he had an underlying condition.
At least now he will get his wish to be left alone.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
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December 21st, 2021 at 8:36:25 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman




It keeps coming back to there are two groups in all of this. On one side are people to whom even 1 virus death is "too many" and are always in borderline fear that they are going to catch it and die.

The first group resents that the second group is going about life. The first group tend to be Karens about the virus and other things. They are the Karens who try for a board seat on the HOA and then make sure all the mailbox posts are perfectly plumb. If the nightly news tells them we need to worry about something, they worry about it.




total nonsense IMO

I'm among the group which takes some precautions such as wearing a mask (which I believe you stated that you don't) but I'm not at all fearful - and I believe there are many like me -

I've done what is recommended by scientists - get my shots - and statistics have revealed that those who have done so reduced their risk tremendously

I'm not fearful of anything - as you suggest - I haven't stopped doing anything - as you suggest - I don't care about the mailboxes as you suggest

you try to make the difference between attitudes simplistic - it doesn't fall into that category

the problem with the 2nd group - your group - that wants to be left alone - is that if they don't wear a mask they can infect others
they can infect even those who have had all their shots - although it's a much smaller risk than those who are unvaccinated
but you and your group don't really care if you infect others - you only care about your own personal, immediate enjoyment

contrary to popular belief - I haven't stopped doing anything
why don't you go all the way out there - and tell people they're foolish to get vaccinated
despite stats showing that the unvaccinated get Covid at a tremendously higher % than the vaccinated
or maybe you can say that all those stats are made up by evil government people who are just trying to scare people so they can control them
that might be your best ticket

.
Please don't feed the trolls
billryan
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December 21st, 2021 at 8:38:58 AM permalink
Simple solutions for simple minds. Same as it ever was.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AZDuffman
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December 21st, 2021 at 9:15:19 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster




total nonsense IMO

I'm among the group which takes some precautions such as wearing a mask (which I believe you stated that you don't) but I'm not at all fearful - and I believe there are many like me -

I've done what is recommended by scientists - get my shots - and statistics have revealed that those who have done so reduced their risk tremendously

I'm not fearful of anything - as you suggest - I haven't stopped doing anything - as you suggest - I don't care about the mailboxes as you suggest

you try to make the difference between attitudes simplistic - it doesn't fall into that category



We are having a discussion on an internet forum, not writing a dissertation for a PhD, so yes there will be some things you call "simplistic" I just call "normal conversation." You say you are not "fearful" yet you espouse just that in being all upset about people going maskless and unvaxed.

Quote:

the problem with the 2nd group - your group - that wants to be left alone - is that if they don't wear a mask they can infect others
they can infect even those who have had all their shots - although it's a much smaller risk than those who are unvaccinated
but you and your group don't really care if you infect others - you only care about your own personal, immediate enjoyment



And there is where it all falls apart. If they had all their shots what are they worried about? If I have to worry about getting infected if I have the shot then why am I risking the side effects of the shot? As far as "caring" if they are that worried they need to stay at home. If I get sick I will minimize my time outside my home. But if I am not I am going to live a normal life, which means no silly masks.


Quote:

why don't you go all the way out there - and tell people they're foolish to get vaccinated
despite stats showing that the unvaccinated get Covid at a tremendously higher % than the vaccinated
or maybe you can say that all those stats are made up by evil government people who are just trying to scare people so they can control them
that might be your best ticket



Because I do not care if they do or do not. See, you seem to have taken the mailbox comment literally but missed the point of it. See, I have made my choice and that is all I care about. The virus is going to do what it is going to do. I am going to do what I am going to do. I do not particularly care what others are going to do. I just ask the same respect for others.

.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AZDuffman
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December 21st, 2021 at 9:16:15 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Looks like the US has had its first fatality, an unvaccinated man in Texas. News reports say he had an underlying condition.
At least now he will get his wish to be left alone.
link to original post



100% of living people will die of something. Better to die on your feet than live on your knees.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
billryan
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December 21st, 2021 at 9:19:46 AM permalink
It looks like omicron is wiping out the delta variant. Three weeks ago, Delta was over 99% of the new cases, now it is down to 27%
Hopefully, that is a good thing.
It appears the NHL is going to take an early Christmas break, meanwhile, the NFL has decided to severely cut its testing protocol.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
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