Quote: DRichBig move on Tesla today. Up about $17 today on news that they are now selling over 5000 new cars per day.
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I'm pretty sure Tesla can only make about 1750 cars a day at max production, so something will have to give.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichBig move on Tesla today. Up about $17 today on news that they are now selling over 5000 new cars per day.
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I'm pretty sure Tesla can only make about 1750 cars a day at max production, so something will have to give.
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That may be just at the California plant that they do 1750. This article states they built 479,700 cars this quarter.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/02/tesla-tsla-q2-2023-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html
Quote: darkozQuote: MDawgSo my prediction of >100K already happened?
Bitcoin Price Spikes to $138K on Binance.US
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So did Bill Ryan lose the bet?
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If I was arbitrating it, I’m not sure how I’d rule. If the bet was ‘will there ever be an exchange that will ever have BTC LISTED at over $100k’, then Billy loses. Since I do not believe ANYONE was actually able to SELL a BTC for $128k, it was never WORTH over $100k.
It’s the same fallacy some have while selling their homes. They think if they list it for $1 million it is therefore worth $1 million. The value or worth is only truly determined upon an actual sale.
For example I could put in a sell order at some ridiculously high ask for shares of AMZN or TSLA but unless someone buys at that price my ask price will not be reflected anywhere in terms of the price of the stock, will not show any change or movement.
Reading the article though it is unclear whether that 138K on Binance.US reflected any kind of completed trade.
That's what I believe will happen. Bitcoin between now and April 2024, 28,000 to 34,000 and then look for huge increases after April 2024
Stock market, not crypto. In BTC I remain a hodler.
And in the meantime, long term all is well! too.
Drug retailer Rite Aid files for bankruptcy, gets $3.45 billion commitment
NFLX up big!
NFLX made it to plus fifty or so. Over 400 again! Any questions from the ones who said NFLX would take forever to make it back up?
Quote: MDawgWhen BTC hit 31K, a couple of my friends contacted me and proclaimed "The march to $80,000." I told them that more likely that BTC would dip back to 28K, then go up again from there. We haven't dipped all the way to 28K yet, but I expect that we will.
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This looks like the real run up on BTC. The last one was a sucker's rally.
Actually, you could set 1/3rd of your money on fire and you’d still have outperformed them over the last couple years
How much longer for Netflix to go up another 70% in order to make it back up to where it was two years ago ?Quote: MDawg
NFLX made it to plus fifty or so. Over 400 again! Any questions from the ones who said NFLX would take forever to make it back up?
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Meantime, how much SPY did you dump below 425? You've been standing there with your hands in your pockets SPY-wise, since, predicting doom and gloom that never happened. This stems from a failure to understand the stock market, which always rises over time.
Quote: MDawgThis stems from a failure to understand the stock market, which always rises over time.
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Number go up.
The market has always risen over the VERY long-term. However, it was lower in 2033 than in 2023 that would be totally normal. Actually it’s sort of expected based on cycles and current sky-high valuations. Most importantly, we are finally returning to a normal interest rate environment. Over a decade of free money was what caused this stock and real estate bubble in the first place
MDawg, stick to the short term trades(gambles) and Vegas meal comps you write about. You have no understanding of long-term stock market performance, economic cycles or their drivers
Quote: Ace2In the past 100 years, the stock market was down over a 25-year period (1929-1954), a 17-year period (1964-1981) and a 12-year period (1999-2011). That’s over half of that 100-year period that it was DOWN
The market has always risen over the VERY long-term. However, it was lower in 2033 than in 2023 that would be totally normal. Actually it’s sort of expected based on cycles and current sky-high valuations. Most importantly, we are finally returning to a normal interest rate environment. Over a decade of free money was what caused this stock and real estate bubble in the first place
MDawg, stick to the short term trades(gambles) and Vegas meal comps you write about. You have no understanding of long-term stock market performance, economic cycles or their drivers
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In 1929, the Dow was under 400. In the years since, despite recessions, depressions, war, pandemics, etc,etc, it rose to over 32,000.
How does that square with the fact the market has been down over half the period?
Under 400 to over 32,000. Horrible. But tell me more about long-term stock performance, economic cycles,and the like.
The Dow has averaged roughly 9% a year return for the last twenty years, which includes the Great Recession. It's done better in the last decade, and is at about 10% a year for the last century. All while being down more years than it was up, if your figures are accurate.
Are stocks over-valued today? Absolutely. But they were overpriced five years ago, and ten years ago, and even fifty years ago, and yet they keep going up.
Yes I trade Ace2, regularly, but I also hold long term (pushing 20 years on some of them) many of the same stocks of which I trade additional shares. You think it matters that AAPL isn't at an all time high when I've been holding mass shares of it continuously over 15 years now? just to give one example. If I'd followed your lead I'd have dumped it many times by now.
Quote: MDawgQuote: MDawgWhen BTC hit 31K, a couple of my friends contacted me and proclaimed "The march to $80,000." I told them that more likely that BTC would dip back to 28K, then go up again from there. We haven't dipped all the way to 28K yet, but I expect that we will.
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This looks like the real run up on BTC. The last one was a sucker's rally.
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BTC 34K
Quote: MDawgTSLA partay!
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Nice run of $13 today but still down more than 10% from two months ago. I think Tesla is a good multi year hold.
Quote: bobbartopQuote: Ace2Anybody else getting the feeling that the market could start crashing any day now? I mean something much steeper/faster than what we saw the first half of the year. I was originally thinking the real implosion wouldn't start until next year, now I'm thinking before year-end
I'm prepared. I didn't go all cash like some investors have, but I reduced my stock exposure significantly early in the year
Ad me to the List. There is no way they can get out of this mess. This is not 1980.
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Ace2 especially has been predicting doom and gloom for some time now and a market that will take decades to recover.
I knew and posted to the effect of that All is Well and Will be Well again soon enough.
And today and recently - DOW and Nasdaq hit highs again!
BTC doing well too.
All as advertised (by MDawg).
Quote: Ace2Also remember: if you bought the Nasdaq in 2000 or certain real estate in 2005, it took FIFTEEN YEARS to recover! And that is just to recover its previous nominal value, so in inflation-adjusted terms you're still way below that previous value after many years
Both of those examples are from very recent history...it's not like I had to cherry pick some statistic from the Great Depression.
You may be fine waiting 15 years to break even. I'm not
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Quote: MDawg
Quote: Ace2We are clearly in an asset bubble...and it's not just the stock market. Better have an exit plan unless you're quite young and don't need your invested money for several decades
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You may be fine waiting 15 years to break even. I'm not
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It is to not understand the current stock market to think that anything takes fifteen years let alone "several decades" to recover. A few weeks in this market is like an eternity. Months is about the longest it takes for a given solid stock to recover. Even NFLX is back to pushing 230.
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You could do a lot worse than following MDawg advice.
Ace would be right if he called a coming bear market a possibility rather than a probability
but it's not a predictable thing
not to me anyway -
I would guess there are some geniuses who have a great record of prediction
I'm a buy and hold guy - trudging thru no matter what - never or rarely paying capital gains taxes
the image shows the history of bull and bear markets
and it's easy to see how much more powerful bull markets are in the long run
a person can get hurt if they need to liquidate a market investment for some personal reason or if they gain an inheritance during a bear market run
.
examples of those that may experience the opposite:
*the guy who has mob mentality, buying because the market is up, like now, and panic selling when the market is in that swoon
*the guy who puts all his money into stocks, then retires, needing to withdraw at all times and unable to buy at the right times
Quote: Ace2SPY is currently at 378. If this turns into a colossal selloff, which is likely, I'd start buying back at 275
40% of my portfolio (down from 90% on Jan-1) is still invested in SPY and I won't be selling more. So if I'm completely wrong and the market rebounds strong/soon, I'm still 40% in and the stuff I sold was for huge long-term gains and within 13% (average) of the market's all-time high.
PS the Dow could drop below 30,000 at any time now, maybe even tomorrow. That's a significant psychological barrier to cross and will generate headlines. Never underestimate the power of market psychology...investors may start panicking. And the brief little sucker rallies, which always occur in the first phase of a crash, may be over
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That sort of thing, selling yourself short, is somewhat like what I see all the time at casino table games. When things are good people are betting relatively small, then start throwing down like crazy when things are bad, and end up busted. If you don't take advantage of huge stock market gains when able, you'll never get rich off the market, and then when things are bad and you panic sell (as mentioned by me, and odious.g) , you might lose all the relatively petty gains you did manage to hold on to, or at best - sell yourself short over all.
Over all, the best time to buy a stock is when it is rising, versus trying to catch a falling knife. However, I tend to buy on dips for trading, buy whenever I have the extra money regardless of where the stock is at, as far as hodling.
Buffet's mantra of buy when others are fearful sell when others are greedy isn't such a bad idea either, if you are going to sell. What Ace2 did, is sell when others were fearful.
Quote: MDawg
Over all, the best time to buy a stock is when it is rising, versus trying to catch a falling knife. However, I tend to buy on dips for trading, buy whenever I have the extra money regardless of where the stock is at, as far as hodling.
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what you are advocating is timing the market
you might be great at it - I'm not saying that you aren't
I would estimate that about 99% of those who do that underperform compared to if they simply bought and held the S&P 500 index fund thru good times and bad paying zero or only minimal capital gains taxes until they liquidate for other reasons
but there's no fun or excitement in doing that
and fun and excitement is the goal of many who try to time the market
so maybe, for them, it's worth it - even if they would have done better with buy and hold
.
I don't do that as far as my long term holdings I just buy whenever I have the extra money. And just keep hodling.
Then as far as trading, I trade extra shares, very short term (including day trading) of the same stocks I hold long term. I don't think that is market timing. That is just trading.
You say you gave up gambling, but if you want to try something new that is much easier to win at once you get past the learning curve, than any casino game - try stock trading. Consider that we're back at all time highs for many stocks, if you pick the right stocks and trade them nimbly, most all of the time you'll close the trade at a profit that same day. When you get stuck, typically in a matter of days (rarely, weeks) you'll be back in the green, especially if you have the funds to average in more shares. Worst case scenario you're stuck for some months.
The market is good, it always comes back. Trade for fun and profit!
the market as a whole has always come back after down periods which are sometimes very long - that is its' history up to now
but every individual stock_________?___________no way - many have collapsed never to return to their heights or have completely disappeared
Mad Money is CNBC's highest rated program drawing about 380,000 nightly viewers featuring the famous stock market picker Jim Cramer
I most definitely will not be going with the various strategies he touts
his poor performance reflects what I generally believe about stock picking and timing the market - I have no issue with people trading for fun
here are some interesting (to me anyway) facts about him from Wiki:
"An August 20, 2007, article in Barron's stated that "his picks haven't beaten the market. Over the past two years, viewers holding Cramer's stocks would be up 12% while the Dow rose 22% and the S&P 500 16%." Cramer was criticized for repeatedly giving erroneous advice during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008. He recommended investing in Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wachovia, and Lehman Brothers before the stocks fell in value significantly and several went out of business. On August 8, 2008, before the climax of the financial crisis of 2007-2008, Cramer recommended investing in bank stocks.
A February 9, 2009, article in The Wall Street Journal said that betting against Cramer's Buy recommendations using short-term options could yield 25% in a month.
A study by Wharton researchers Jonathan Hartley and Matthew Olson found that in the timeframe of August 2001 to March 2016, Cramer's charitable trust underperformed the S&P 500 primarily as a result of underexposure to market returns in years after the 2008 financial crisis. As of March 31, 2016, Cramer's trust since inception had a cumulative return of 64.5%, whereas the S&P 500 fewer dividends returned 70% during the same timeframe.
On the March 11, 2008, episode of Cramer's show Mad Money, a viewer submitted the question "Should I be worried about Bear Stearns in terms of liquidity and get my money out of there?" Cramer responded "No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble. If anything, they're more likely to be taken over. Don't move your money from Bear."
An article by author Michael Lewis for Bloomberg News said that TheStreet listed Bear Stearns as a "Buy" at $62 per share on March 11, 2008, which was the same day as the caller's question and a day before the collapse of Bear Stearns
On March 12, 2009, Cramer appeared on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Stewart reiterated earlier claims regarding the CNBC host's "silly and/or embarrassing and/or stupid financial observations." Moreover, he said CNBC shirked its journalistic duty by believing corporate lies rather than being an investigative "powerful tool of illumination". Cramer disagreed with Stewart on a few points, but acknowledged that he could have done a better job foreseeing the economic collapse: "We all should have seen it more."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Cramer
.
as for me and my REITs about 14% since Dec. 2000. There is also 1kg Gold remaining after selling off 500gr. that is free-to-own.
Numbers are 400k for stocks + 65k for Au, based on a 23k initial investment and careful sells with buybacks.
I'm a friend of "take your nickle and go home" investing that I learned in the mid 70s.
These were the 10 most painful trades for short sellers in 2023:
Tesla: -$12.2 billion
Nvidia: -$11.2 billion
Apple: -$7.3 billion
Meta Platforms: -$6.6 billion
Microsoft: -$5.6 billion
Amazon: -$4.9 billion
Coinbase Global: -$4.1 billion
Broadcom: -$3.3 billion
Advanced Micro Devices: -$3.2 billion
Palo Alto Networks: -$3.0 billion
Of course short sellers like those had to lose so that those going long like MDawg could win. Anyone who gave up and dumped early helped those buying long on dips too.
Quote: Ace2My 10-year forecast is for the S&P to be at the same level as it is now, with at least one huge drop in the interim. As a reference, look at the S&P level of 1550 in year 2000. Thirteen years later it was at the same level, with TWO crashes of 50% plus during that period.
You can ignore all of the above if you don’t care about well-established market cycles/valuations/fundamentals.
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Quote: MDawgMarket always recovers. Hold those long terms do not sell! In meantime, there are some great trades coming up daily.
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And as far as the lamentations and doom and gloom predictions from others about NFLX….
Quote: mcallister3200As a consumer I don’t really understand why NFLX would recover without a major business model shift or merger.
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Quote: TDVegasNFLX long position will come back. Try 2028. It’s under $200 now. Google it. ;-)
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Quote: MDawgI wouldn’t rule NFLX or any of these industry leaders out. NFLX may be down but not for the count.
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Quote: MDawgAnd meantime, the stock market is doing just fine and I expect that predictions of long term doom and gloom will be proven wrong.
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Quote: Ace2Better have an exit plan unless you're quite young and don't need your invested money for several decades
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Quote: Ace2And it might never fully recover in real, inflation adjusted terms
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Quote: bobbartopQuote: Ace2Anybody else getting the feeling that the market could start crashing any day now? I mean something much steeper/faster than what we saw the first half of the year. I was originally thinking the real implosion wouldn't start until next year, now I'm thinking before year-end
Ad me to the List. There is no way they can get out of this mess. This is not 1980.
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Quote: MDawgDon't ever think about selling long term good stocks, instead add.
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Quote: MDawgEvery stock I trade hits a new ATH eventually, so the only way I could lose is by losing patience!
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Quote: SOOPOOI’m just saying, TAKEN ON ITS OWN, his stock claims are reasonable.
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And proven right about the market in general. Again and again.
Quote: MDawgLet's not forget notwithstanding the other fireworks that have been going off around here that the stock market has been doing well.
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What fireworks? I do enjoy following different companies earnings calls this time of year.
Inevitable at this point that it will surpass its ATH (like everything else MDawg holds).
He and I are so pleased that BTC is on the verge of surpassing its ATH, that petty forum matters, matter not!
The MDawg theory of stocks is that once a stock surpasses its ATH, the sky's the limit! The same applies to any commodity.