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SOOPOO
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February 28th, 2024 at 8:23:30 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Now that BTC has jumped past 60K, I'd like to bury the hatchet officially with PokerGrinder. Not that I ever had anything against him anyway.

He and I are so pleased that BTC is on the verge of surpassing its ATH, that petty forum matters, matter not!


The MDawg theory of stocks is that once a stock surpasses its ATH, the sky's the limit! The same applies to any commodity.
link to original post[o/q]

What has changed that would make it up 135% in the last 6 months?

Edit. It was SOOPOO asking the question with formatting issue….

MDawg
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February 28th, 2024 at 8:43:29 AM permalink
You and AxelWolf still don't know how to format on WOV?

Anyway, I could comment on the WHYs, but let's let someone else comment.

My policy for BTC for over a decade now has been to just accept it whenever anyone wants to pay me in it, and then just hodl it. I don't even think about it beyond that, other than knowing that it will go up over time. And it has, massively.

I've accepted BTC when it was worth about nothing and when it was worth as much as 20K or so. If someone offered it to me today as payment @ 61K I would accept it too. Bring it! I have never sold any, just accumulated.

I have sold (converted to fiat) some stable coins but then those when a client pays me in them, don't even go up so the only benefit there in hodling has been interest earned. And even then I've sold pretty much only the interest earned portion of the stable coins. The online wallet started issuing 1099s to me on interest earned in crypto a couple years ago (I don't know why they did it for 2022, the mandate was for 2023 onwards) so at this point the cat is out of the bag and I will owe massive tax when I sell BTC @ 100K.

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unJon
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February 28th, 2024 at 9:11:59 AM permalink
Great movie.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
MDawg
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February 29th, 2024 at 1:15:55 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

You may be fine waiting 15 years to break even. I'm not
link to original post


I thought it was going to take 15 years for this market to come back?



Quote: MDawg

And meantime, the stock market is doing just fine and I expect that predictions of long term doom and gloom will be proven wrong.
link to original post

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MDawg
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March 7th, 2024 at 3:55:06 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

BTC pushing 55K!

Inevitable at this point that it will surpass its ATH (like everything else MDawg holds).
link to original post


As advertised!

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MDawg
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March 8th, 2024 at 7:39:08 AM permalink
AMZN and NFLX doing just fine!
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OnceDear
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March 8th, 2024 at 12:10:29 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Quote: MDawg

BTC pushing 55K!
link to original post



link to original post


69413USD
+2472
+3.69%
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
MDawg
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March 11th, 2024 at 4:53:49 AM permalink
Solid at 72K, but I'm interested only in 100K, which is where I plan to unload some.
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DRich
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March 11th, 2024 at 4:58:24 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Solid at 72K, but I'm interested only in 100K, which is where I plan to unload some.



Just curious, why sell at $100k? How did you choose that number? Why not $95k, $99k, $101k, or $105k?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
MDawg
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March 11th, 2024 at 5:02:23 AM permalink
Arbitary number to be sure, but it's high enough such that I don't think I'd care so much what happens after that. Plus I wouldn't sell all, just some, but it will be the first time I will have sold any and I have been accumulating for well over a decade now.
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MDawg
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March 20th, 2024 at 6:22:37 AM permalink
We have some BTC decline, but the stock market as a whole is roaring.
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MDawg
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March 21st, 2024 at 11:03:50 AM permalink
RDDT. I wouldn't say exactly in meme territory, but doing well.

I guess I like it fine, so far.
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MDawg
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April 3rd, 2024 at 10:19:24 AM permalink
Have to look closely to find the right stocks for trading these days. Have to move enough, and move up to ATHs over time, not all fit the bill!
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MDawg
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April 15th, 2024 at 4:06:57 PM permalink
DJT (the Trump social network stock) - typically not able to short new issues for a period of time, because the underwriter itself isn't allowed to lend out shares for 30 days.

I am sure at least some would have wanted to jump on that short.
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MDawg
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April 18th, 2024 at 7:49:22 AM permalink
I actually have not owned NVDA before, but with the big drop yesterday was a no brainer for a big trade today, 833 to 843. Didn't take all the money off the table, but the usual (for me) $10K Cha'Ching!
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MDawg
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April 18th, 2024 at 2:35:25 PM permalink
Looking for 585 on a quick 5 point NFLX AH trade.
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MDawg
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April 18th, 2024 at 2:50:02 PM permalink
That was an easy five point Cha'Ching. Filled almost right after I posted.



Been getting back into more frequent trading lately. No time for Vegas lately, but for another ilk of +EV action, certainly!
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MDawg
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April 19th, 2024 at 6:35:23 AM permalink
Another quick MDawg winner, NFLX 568 to 573.
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MDawg
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April 19th, 2024 at 7:43:30 AM permalink
NVDA @ 815 looks pretty tasty. I did not pull the trigger, was busy on a phone call.
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MDawg
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April 19th, 2024 at 10:39:45 AM permalink
This is where the timing is what matters on a trade, not necessarily the price.

815 on NVDA was a great trade, ten points were available on the upside. But at the moment NVDA is barely holding 805.

555 is probably the best price for entry NFLX at this moment. 568 to 573 was great for the trade I did earlier - not now.

In general I prefer trades during the first hour of the day, and not afterwards. Stocks have their greatest "elasticity" then, where anything is possible including rebounds from great drops before people have started to give up on the upside.
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MDawg
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April 22nd, 2024 at 8:57:40 AM permalink
Did a couple of NVDA trades, it was bot back up on every dip today.

All right, now we are past the safe zone as far as elasticity. Done for the day.
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MDawg
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April 22nd, 2024 at 8:59:32 AM permalink
TSLA having a hard time this year. Competition, and Elon's robotaxi idea was scoffed at.
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MDawg
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April 23rd, 2024 at 9:33:37 PM permalink
Friday was a day when tech melted down, but if you were good at trading, still it was at least a morning where even precisely hit longs were profitable. And even the worst randomly picked buys on the right stocks – give ‘em a few days, Voila! back in the money.

It‘s hard to lose money in this market.
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tuttigym
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April 24th, 2024 at 10:44:45 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

That was an easy five point Cha'Ching. Filled almost right after I posted.



Been getting back into more frequent trading lately. No time for Vegas lately, but for another ilk of +EV action, certainly!
link to original post


You have two "Cha'Chings" on April 18 on short term trades. Are those profit taking events?

I assume your fed and CA taxes are at 52+% combined. That is giving up over half in taxes plus the accounting fees, etc. For me, that does not make a lot of sense. Oh, well.

tuttigym
mcallister3200
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April 24th, 2024 at 12:35:57 PM permalink
Tuttigym,
A couple thoughts.

you gotta know when to hold ‘em. Gotta know when to fold em. Know when to walk away, know when to run.

And well the tax stuff, you know. You never count your money when you’re sitting at the table. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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April 24th, 2024 at 12:47:19 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Tuttigym,
A couple thoughts.

you gotta know when to hold ‘em. Gotta know when to fold em. Know when to walk away, know when to run.

And well the tax stuff, you know. You never count your money when you’re sitting at the table. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.
link to original post


You need to write a song or something. That is catchy.

Taxes and expenses just add up and can point to trouble.

Just sayin'

tuttigym
MDawg
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April 24th, 2024 at 12:49:13 PM permalink
One theory is that NVDA will be carried up by some kind of mention by META when it reports after the bell. This has happened before.
Meantime it has been all over the place today, 791 - 840 , which translated to some easy profitable long trades for me.

Yesterday TSLA missed on both earnings and revenue BUT more than carried the day by claiming that it will expedite introduction of more affordable models. I think a lot of the pop has to do with simply that TSLA has been oversold lately.
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MDawg
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April 24th, 2024 at 1:13:50 PM permalink
The theory was sound - META tanked, but at least momentarily NVDA popped to around 809, up about 11 in the A.H. Faded back to about flat now.
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MDawg
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April 24th, 2024 at 2:21:08 PM permalink
NVDA is like the pre 20-1 split AMZN!

All over the place, up 50, down 50, and back, within minutes, hours, days.
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MDawg
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April 25th, 2024 at 5:38:48 AM permalink
META bit it yesterday even though it beat on both earnings and revenue - due to poor guidance. Poor guidance is like - we may have done well in the past but don't expect the same in the near future.

MSFT reports after the bell today.
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vegas
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April 25th, 2024 at 6:01:09 AM permalink
The big 7 were overpriced and led the market up. Now they are leading the market down. You can't continue going up like Nvidia did 100% + in 3 months and expect that to hold. Yes Nvidia will be well over 1000$ per share but it takes time. Tesla now must close above 160 in the next couple of days or it will head right back down. If it closes above 160 Friday it should head to mid 170's where it will find resistance .. If it closes below 160 look for it to go back to support in the 140's and maybe lower.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
MDawg
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April 25th, 2024 at 7:22:26 AM permalink
NVDA is up over +20 now, and META well off its lows. I traded both successfully both last night in the AH and today in the regular market. I did get stuck on one META trade last night but sold it in the money today - which is my point about how it's hard to lose money in this market if you know what you are doing, both on long terms and on short terms, all may be done profitably no matter what happens. Especially if you have the skill, patience and buying power.

As far as the trades obviously if you jump in at completely the wrong time you'll have a harder time making money, which is why they say that 90% of day traders lose money, but I think a better statistic is that the 10% who do make money like me do it all the time.

Another fact is that the reason the 10% make money is because of the 90% who keep losing. We make money over their dead corpses. For every 100 losers who pull the trigger at the wrong time and then dump in a panic, there are 10 winners who swoop in and make money off the losers' losses.

And for the most part I am just trading extra shares of stocks I have held very very long term. With NVDA that is one that I didn't even consider until very recently, so for that one I have been trading it only.
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MDawg
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April 25th, 2024 at 1:22:55 PM permalink
MSFT beat on EPS and revenue.

NVDA is pushing 850 again, in the AH.

GOOG / GOOGL partying.

META dropped a lot from yesterday's close, but ended about +25 off its low.

CMG is another serious winner, been holding this one long long term...but even in the medium term this stock was something like 550 during the pandemic stock collapse, over 3000 now!

NFLX is slowly recovering too.

AMZN pushing 180 in the AH.

Nothing keeps these big'uns down for long, apparently.
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MDawg
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April 26th, 2024 at 7:03:33 AM permalink
CMG actually hit 3175 today. That's crazeee. Quite a spread on it too - those market makers are making bank.

My recommended buy for NFLX for anyone wanting to enter this week has been 555, but it's actually dipped below that lately.
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MDawg
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April 27th, 2024 at 8:30:43 AM permalink
That was pretty awesome the way NVDA crunched down to about 762 on Friday the 19th, then closed a week later at 877. And went back and forth all along the way.

In the interim traders like me cha'chinged money right and left, and the weak panicky hands kept dumping money (which transferred into the winners' pocket) over and over.
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MDawg
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April 29th, 2024 at 5:40:34 AM permalink
NVDA green slightly. CMG already up another +30 in the pre-.

I'd jump on a META trade again today if it dips below 430.

NFLX can't seem to get up and go. Yet.

AAPL got a healthy pre-market pop.

TSLA rocking.
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MDawg
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April 29th, 2024 at 12:32:43 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I'd jump on a META trade again today if it dips below 430.
link to original post


I followed my own advice but not sure if I'm going to get the 2 pts, maybe just 1.
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MDawg
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April 29th, 2024 at 1:07:57 PM permalink
2 points it was (3 were available). Cha'Ching!
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MDawg
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May 1st, 2024 at 8:15:52 PM permalink
The FED, predictably, kept interest rates where they are - highest they've been in 23 years, but also predictably, the market at first was neutral to the announcement, then bullish, then sold off.

Too often the markets whipsaw on FED announcement days. The FED cuts rates? GREAT, market roars! And then - wait a minute, you mean the economy is so bad that the FED needs to cut rates? Oops...sell off.

Or the FED raises rates and the market starts tanking...until it decides that this somehow means that the economy is strong, and people start buying up again.

All in a day's work, at the U.S. stock markets.
Last edited by: MDawg on May 1, 2024
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vegas
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May 1st, 2024 at 9:47:37 PM permalink
When the fed finally does cut rates the market will drop a bunch. I have money set aside to buy once rates get cut.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
MDawg
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May 2nd, 2024 at 4:43:59 AM permalink
It depends on market sentiment. In 1999, Greenspan kept raising interest rates and the market kept roaring anyway, as Irrational Exuberance carried the day.

As far as buying into the market is concerned - if you're going to go long term, the thing to do is to buy whenever you have the money. Forget about trying to time the market.

Trading is a whole different matter.
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DRich
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May 3rd, 2024 at 3:33:52 PM permalink
I just saw on CNBC that Berkshire Hathaway now has 43% of its value tied up in Apple. That shocks me that they would hold that much exposure to one investment.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
MDawg
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May 3rd, 2024 at 7:00:34 PM permalink
I don't own or follow BRK but this could have to do with how much AAPL has gone up - 4000+ percent since 2008, such that whatever AAPL is in BRK might have gone up disproportionately more than some of its other holdings?

Apparently BRK didn't start buying up AAPL until 2016 (I personally have held it pushing twenty years), but still, AAPL has gone up tremendously since 2016, perhaps more than anything else in BRK.
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MDawg
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Joined: Sep 27, 2018
May 3rd, 2024 at 7:06:56 PM permalink
I remember the day Icahn dumped all of his NFLX in 2015, to buy AAPL. Lot of people were left holding the bag that day (I was stuck in a big trade myself for a while), but NFLX came back strong, and AAPL did fine eventually too.

At some point he wrote this letter explaining why AAPL was so much better than NFLX as an investment, but people really didn't care and kept buying up NFLX, and still do.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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Joined: Sep 27, 2018
May 5th, 2024 at 9:26:41 PM permalink
Futures flat.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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Joined: Sep 27, 2018
May 6th, 2024 at 7:37:26 AM permalink
Market solid today, picks right back up after after every dip this morning. Cha'Chings! galore.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Joined: Aug 8, 2010
May 6th, 2024 at 11:30:40 AM permalink
Do you own any TSM? I own a bunch at I think now 14x what I paid. I’ve sold some when I need cash, and specifically chose TSM because of fear of China taking over Taiwan. I’ve been burned on both Russian and Chinese stocks for political reasons.
MDawg
MDawg
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Joined: Sep 27, 2018
May 6th, 2024 at 3:39:10 PM permalink
There is no TSM in the MDawg portfolio.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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Joined: Sep 27, 2018
May 7th, 2024 at 8:05:16 AM permalink
NVDA was good for a trade on any dip below 900 this morning.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 41
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Joined: Sep 27, 2018
May 9th, 2024 at 8:19:15 AM permalink
NVDA behaving as expected, dipping to where I want, then climbing right back up. Cha'Chings, galore!
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
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