Quote: MDawgBut still, then as today momentum is most of what keeps many stocks going up, and as long as companies are able to deliver at earnings times, stock prices will continue to go up.
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AMZN and AAPL doing JUST FINE, brother!
Quote: MDawgI sold a couple days ago about $300K in stable coins and clicked to withdraw the cash by ACH to my linked bank account.
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When I sold the stable coins (worth 1. each), I got about .97 each when converting to USD. So that's about a 3% fee, which, when considering that my stable coins have been earning 14% per year, isn't so very bad, but not that great either. So that's part of how these hosted web wallets make their money. They snagged about $9000. off me for the conversion.
I'm not going to do it, because I am still waiting for BTC 100K, but I wanted to see what the sell price is for BTC. I found that at the moment when BTC is trading at 24021.88 , the sell price is 23272.37 - which again is about 3% but seems more glaring somehow because I have so many BTC that to sell all of them I would be feeding these guys for decades worth of their salaries.
I can see why people try to sell BTC privately to avoid these conversion fees but who is going to show up with hundreds of thousands or millions in verifiable funds to buy some of my crypto?
I haven't looked into my other hosted wallets, I have two others where I keep crypto, but maybe their rates are similar.
I'm just more used to stocks, where the bid and ask for trading are all that are involved, not an extra step to convert to cash.
So, it's not such an easy process to convert your BTC to cash, they will nip 3% from you at each step of the way. If anyone has converted from one form of crypto to another, maybe he could input on whether there are the same or similar fees.
I didn't know about these conversion fees until now, because all of my crypto had been obtained from people paying me over the years directly in crypto. This was the first time I had cashed out.
Quote: MDawgActually I am running into a little problem myself with trying to get funds out of one of these web wallets. The outfit where I keep most of my crypto has me verified to the level where I should be able to withdraw $200K in fiat (in my case, US dollars) per day, and I sold a couple days ago about $300K in stable coins and clicked to withdraw the cash by ACH to my linked bank account.
Although this was beyond the withdrawal limit for the day, the withdrawal was accepted but put into review. If I had thought about it I would have kept the withdrawal under $200K but I had never withdrawn before and I figured if this was not allowed the system would have told me to withdraw less.
Now the outfit is wanting me to verify myself beyond the level I am currently verified, including with a social security number and proof of income, assets, and a lot of other nonsense, before allowing the withdrawal. I am coming back with, just let me withdraw the $200K a day as allowed so far, but they are being slow in conceding the point.
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And I say that it is not so easy also - because I had to jump through a lot of hoops to get that ACH withdrawal approved. So, as your attorney I am advising any of you who have substantial crypto and decide to convert it to cash and withdraw it - figure out exactly what you will need to do to withdraw those funds to your bank account BEFORE you sell the crypto and initiate the withdrawal.
I ended up having to prove that I was a rich bastard just to get MY money out of their platform. Not even kidding. They demanded proof that I had a high salary, high net worth, proof of residential address, and so on, just to get my hands on a few hundred K of my own money. And during the review process they don't exactly make you feel comfortable - act like you might never get your money at all unless they deem you are legitimately wealthy, and at the end of it all mention that you made it only after "careful review." Anti-money laundering measures are a bitch, but my banks never asked me to prove my wherewithal before they accepted mere six figure deposits or withdrawals from me?
Anyway I am now approved for withdrawals of up to mid 7 figures so I won't go through this again, I hope.
So far, this seems to be playing out like the 2001-2003 bear market…a relatively slow but large decline when it was done, interspersed with many sucker rallies
My 10-year forecast is for the S&P to be at the same level as it is now, with at least one huge drop in the interim. As a reference, look at the S&P level of 1550 in year 2000. Thirteen years later it was at the same level, with TWO crashes of 50% plus during that period.
Remember, the current market valuation is still higher than its year 2000 peak (S&P has risen more than GDP since then). The current bubble was mostly created by the Fed’s leaving rates at zero for over ten years following the 2008 crash, and there is absolutely no historical precedent for a decade+ of free money. That era is now finally coming to an end, and it’s going to be a major adjustment, especially in asset valuations
You can ignore all of the above if you don’t care about well-established market cycles/valuations/fundamentals.
Perhaps he will change the definition of inflation next.
Quote: Ace2My 10-year forecast is for the S&P to be at the same level as it is now, with at least one huge drop in the interim.
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Your figures and analyses are always hard to dispute. There’s so much precedent and objective data supporting your opinion. Sort of like your well-documented baccarat techniques lolQuote: MDawgQuote: Ace2My 10-year forecast is for the S&P to be at the same level as it is now, with at least one huge drop in the interim.
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I suggest you apply your core gambling principle to your stocks: “Quit while you’re ahead”. Assuming you are
Double bottom not hard to predict.
Cha'ching!
900 is the current TSLA baseline to watch for trades.
As usual with MDawg trades, the stock was giving up far more than I clipped from the range. This is further proof that I had the right idea, and indeed sold myself short by taking a scalp instead of letting it ride onwards. But, still, never look back, and be happy with the profit made. Never look a gift Cha'ching! in the mouth.
Currently at 866 and was trading under 640 six weeks ago. Hard to imagine it going all the way down to 878Quote: MDawgFirst time around hit a cha'ching, TSLA 898 to 903, but it's looking iffy today as far as a second hit below 900. Still dropping, but it will be tempting at 878 if it gets that low.
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You’re probably losing a ton of money at the moment on those shares you bought at 878, but we will never hear about those “day-trades”. If it shoots back up before the bell, then we will. Or did you stop losses at 873?
My trade from 898 to 903 was good, at the time I placed it. I actually got busy with some other business today, but a trade from 878 to 883 or so would have been just as profitable. (And yes, I did glance at the stock when it hit 878 and change, and it did promptly move back up to the 882-883 range. If I had booked that trade, it would have done just fine.)
Now, a trading amateur looking at today's action would say, "it went down 😢 no way anyone could have made money trading it long." I won't get into why that is amateurish to think that, but there were plenty of opportunities for a skilled trader to make money on TSLA today long, as proven by the one trade I did.
Right now TSLA is at 863, but the main issue now is that there is only an hour to the bell. But more than likely a long trade could be made at this level too. I don't generally trade in the last hour though.
This is why I book profitable trades, because I pull the trigger not based on arbitrary prices, but when the time is right.
You seem to be an "arbitrary price" guy, which is why you bailed the third round of your SPY dumps at 381. You set that arbitrary price in advance, it triggered, and you lost your position. I believe that this was classic "time is wrong" pricing. Your price was not based on skilled analysis of where the stock was that day, just an arbitrary price you set in advance - no different from the guys who say "I will buy bitcoin at 11000" and then stand around with their hands in their pockets their whole lives. AND, if bitcoin does get back down to 11000, who is to say that the price at that time will even be a good buy?
Until you figure out how to do things like the big boys, you'll always be a day late and a dollar short in your "market timing" which - market timing doesn't really work anyway, and is something quite different from trading, where the objective is to get in and out in a short to medium period of time and book a profit, which is exactly what I did today with my trade of additional shares of TSLA on top of the long shares I have held for many years.
The arbitrary buy price you listed at 11:28 ET was “878 if it gets that low,” not “878 and change”. Price dropped to 878 at 11:56 ET (your buy order executed) and then to 873 two minutes later, at which time your arbitrary 5 point stop-loss executed. Dropped below 869 at 12:35 before next rebound began, no way you held on that long. How much $$$ did you lose on that trade?
Please enlighten the amateurs: How do you know, from one minute to the next, when a stock is about to go up or down for a few minutes? What techniques/analyses are involved? Are they related to your secret methods of winning at baccarat long-term…just “knowing” when to bet big?
Or are you just gambling and “trading” based on gut feelings alone? And losing a ton of money in the long run, like all such people do. Like fishermen, they have plenty of entertaining stories and constant success
There’s a saying about day traders: “the masses lose their a$$es”. I’ve known several
There are several other securities that continue to perform that way in this market yet MDawg has tunnel vision. I am just not equipped to get his "strategy." But then again, I only made 108% profit on my one trade and am quite comfortable with that and staisfied.
tuttigym
I bet he lost $250,000 in two minutes
Quote: tuttigymThis so-called "genius" really does not get it IMO.
tuttigym
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Tuttigym,
If I recall correctly, you recently spent longer than you should have for a suspension.
I'm going to cancel the debt to you as a penalty for the insult implied in that quote.
I'll remind you again.... You don't have to believe MDawg, but insulting him with such expressions as "this so called genius" is not acceptable. Attack the posts, not the poster.
I've been looking into domestic solar energy, and Tesla came up....
Bearing in mind I'm in the UK...
For anyone considering Domestic Solar with battery backup, for resilience, rather than saving money, Tesla's Powerwall technology has a virtual monopoly here. Very little on the UK and EU market that can provide a home with an Uninterrupted Power Supply, where it works as well off grid as on grid.
MOST domestic Solar, bought here, is 'grid tied' and without battery backup. Nobody wants to sell me a battery backup system and nobody wants to pay the stupidly high prices for battery hardware.
Tesla will only provide their Powerwall battery as part of a Tesla Licenced installation. And Boy do you pay a LOT for having that Tesla branded gear. WAYYY overpriced. There are a very few competing European products. Tesla have pretty much a monopoly in a product that no-one wants to buy or sell.
When I say for resilience, I mean a domestic solar installation where solar energy keeps batteries charged and will power the home if the grid goes down. Most Grid Tied systems don't even work at all with grid down.
Personal opinion.... Tesla Products are over-rated and over-priced. When the competition gets in gear, Tesla will have to find another way to generate it's margins. I would not buy Tesla Products if they halved their prices and halved them again.
If you own those products: No insult intended.
Quote: MdawgAlways a learning curve to this. Darting in and out of a stock on dip days is an art that takes years to master, and no one may do it with 100% accuracy, but anywhere close to that is exceptional.
First, thank you for your considerations. Second, I took this post as a gigantic back on the back/look at me/I am "exceptional" (inferred/mastering "darting in and out of a stock on dip days") as I am a trading "genius" (my words). It was not a "personal insult." It is who Mdawg is. His posts tend to paint, with a broad brush, most traders as "amateurs" with knowledge and skill levels below his expertise. Basically, the post to Ace2 was condescending and over generalized.
Great information and personal insight into Tesla. It is something never broadly reported. Thank you for that.
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2$878 x 1000? That’s just pocket change for MDawg. Eight $100k chips plus a few more
I bet he lost $250,000 in two minutes
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It seems that you know who Mdawg is and his net worth. Enlighten us.
BTW did you notice that his profits or "cha chings" seem to be less than 1%? Then add in the short term capital gains and those results are much lower.
tuttigym
To start with, have to be able to read a chart correctly. Yesterday TSLA did not drop straight down from 913 (high for the day) to 856 (low for the day) any more than straight down from 878 to 873.
Take a look first at the trade I did do, 898 to 903:
TSLA jumped from below 900 to above it a few times, which is expected behavior.
Then, from below 880, it jumped one time to 882-883, and also a few times jumped back up as well, including from 873 all the way back to 880, more than once.
That chart by the way is not exactly accurate, when TSLA made it to 882-883, the low for the day was 877 and change. Pull the ticker for the day and go through every trade you will see that movement, which would have taken a trade from 878 to 882, no problem.
Now, as to why any skilled trader might have bot into the stock at these points, it has to do with a lot of factors going through a trader's mind, including where the stock has been lately (not just today), why the stock is falling today (such as whether there is some news, or it is simply a sell off for little or no reason day), over all market conditions, time in the day, action prior to jumping in for the trade, whether it is the first time the stock has hit that bottom for the day, and a lot more.
I will tell you that buying a dip on a dropping stock when it drops below the even numbered multiple of 10 is just basic Trading 101. Rare that a stock won't at least bob its head back over the multiple of 10 mark after dipping below. And a dip below an 00 mark is almost always a good opportunity for a trade.
In any case, my one trade of the day 898 was a Cha'Ching! The other point that I mentioned 878 I did not execute because I was too busy with other work. Even the third one that I mentioned in the last hour, TSLA in at 863, would have made money. None of those numbers are arbitrary - they are based on all of the factors I noted above, and more importantly, aren't some numbers proposed months in advance like your "I will sell the rest of my SPY at 381" deal, which was a big mistake in my opinion and will seem like an even bigger mistake as the months and years go by.
Just takes time to get to my level. It's no shame that you can't understand what is going on, or why.
It's just as mind boggling to someone with no experience with this sort of thing as to why a million or two into a trade to make even a thousand in seconds let alone five thousand or more implies that the funds are not all at risk.
On other internet boards typically those without, do options trades, where the entire few thousand or more is at risk - that's in effect riskier than putting up any amount of money for an actual equity trade.
My trading philosophy involves making a trade if I can make money. It it looks good, I do it. If not, I don't. And I trade only industry leaders with a proven track record, but also stocks with some volatility, because that sort of movement is a skilled trader's friend. Sometimes I will trade more than once in one day. Other times I might not trade for days at a time, or even weeks. I'm not like that broker who is churning the average guy's account just to generate commission.
Quote: Ace2I’m going by your arbitrary prices/spreads, not mine.
The arbitrary buy price you listed at 11:28 ET was “878 if it gets that low,” not “878 and change”. Price dropped to 878 at 11:56 ET (your buy order executed) and then to 873 two minutes later, at which time your arbitrary 5 point stop-loss executed. Dropped below 869 at 12:35 before next rebound began, no way you held on that long. How much $$$ did you lose on that trade?
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I pulled the trades for you. I didn't have to pull the trades, just by glancing at the action yesterday, I already knew what had happened. But just to show you that you were wrong, I pulled the trades.
TSLA hit the 878 range for the first time, around 11:44am PST.
Any number of trades could have been filled at 878 then, including, oh wow, there it is,
Quote: MDawgThat chart by the way is not exactly accurate, when TSLA made it to 882-883, the low for the day was 877 and change. Pull the ticker for the day and go through every trade you will see that movement, which would have taken a trade from 878 to 882, no problem.
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877 and change, notwithstanding all the fills at 878 even.
Then, within a couple minutes,
boom, sold at 882 and change.
I've been doing this for a long time. Before you question me, you had first better learn how to read a stock chart.
In any case, if you wish to learn, ask questions. If you just want to argue, I'm doing what I'm doing successfully and your misapplied argument doesn't affect that.
You continue posting this fabricated statement that I sold everything at an interim low, which is entirely false. My average sell price is way above 381 since most of my stop-limits executed in January when the selloff was just beginning. I placed those trailing stop-limit orders last year before the market had even peaked, so this was planned profit taking not panic selling.
I've never advocated selling everything and never would unless I had insider knowledge that the global economy was about to permanently collapse. I still own quite a bit of SPY though I did some material profit taking earlier in the year. Those sales were for enormous multi-year/decade gains and I will never regret cashing in some of my shares for huge profits, no matter what the market does going forward.
Investing 101: Buy low, sell high. Gains are just theoretical until you sell
No shame in that though. Not everyone is cut out to be a trader.
Me (correct): TSLA hit 878 then bounced to 882 and change. "Cha'Ching."
You (misreading the chart): TSLA dropped straight from 878 to 873 no way anyone could have made any money buying at 878 that day. "How much did you lose?"
I enjoy the thread. It's quality entertainment.
You're always free to propose a CHALLENGE as to the trades posted here, which even Axel Wolf allowed that the trades were all legitimate just he opined that MDawg must be operating a stock account on behalf of a family member.
250K Wager from the past
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/35670-challenge-to-axelwolf-the-daddy-of-all-wagers/#post796763
Put up or shut up, I say.
Quote: MDawgFirst time around hit a cha'ching, TSLA 898 to 903, but it's looking iffy today as far as a second hit below 900. Still dropping, but it will be tempting at 878 if it gets that low.
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That's the other thing about an MDawg trade. Most of the time it ends up being an even better trade if had held it to a swing trade. TSLA hit 915 today.
Something like when I place a table / special limits bet at Bacc, win, and it is followed by multiple Banks or Players in a row. I wasn't just lucky, there were rows and rows of winners coming!
tuttigym
Those are trade logs of completed sales - someone bot, someone sold. Shares exchanged hands at the indicated price.
Quote: GundyThis entire thread is pure fiction. Does anyone here actually believe any of this crap?
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It's allowed to say you don't believe somebody. Alan's 18 yo's has certainly put that rule to the test. I probably wouldn't have done anything with just the first sentence, not that it's within forum rules. However, the second was rather strong and borders as a violation of the rules against personal insult and profanity. Warning issued.
Quote: MDawgWhich computer?
Those are trade logs of completed sales - someone bot, someone sold. Shares exchanged hands at the indicated price.
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I am asking questions which is what you suggested. So that trade log is not a representation of your trades?
Where is the "cha ching"? You keep posting about your trades and the incredible "profits" from your informed decision making in the stock market. Why do we need to see "trade logs" that apparently have nothing to do with your activity in the market? There is no continuity or conformity with your posts regarding money making exercises. The posts just seem to be bluster and fiction.
tuttigym
Quote: MDawgDid you follow the exchange between me and Ace2, or are you just posting without having any idea what is going on, or why.
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Your back and forth with Ace2 was disjointed and meandering chatter. There were no specifics regarding your personal trades only words without context or continuity. Then trade logs with no reference to personal activity. So yeah, I have no idea what is going on, and you have no idea how to convey anything that is simple and meaningful regarding what you post. Perhaps Ace2 can translate all of your references for the rest of us. If not, Ace2 maybe someone else like the Wizard.
tuttigym
Since you have accused me (multiples times) of not being able to read a simple chart, I have to ask:Quote: MDawg
Me (correct): TSLA hit 878 then bounced to 882 and change. "Cha'Ching."
You (misreading the chart): TSLA dropped straight from 878 to 873 no way anyone could have made any money buying at 878 that day. "How much did you lose?"
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1) Are you able to read and comprehend English at an adult level?
2) Do you know how to use the Quote button on this forum?
3) Do you know how to copy and paste on a phone/computer?
Because you continue fabricating statements that I never made. I did not say it "dropped straight" or that "no way anyone could have made any money buying at 878 that day". I said it hit your arbitrary stop loss point of 873 and even went below 869 long before any substantial rebound began. Incidentally, it did barely touch 883 (your arbitrary sell point, not 882 and change) for a couple minutes around 1:15 ET, but that doesn't matter since, as my post stated, you sold at 873 over an hour before then.
Reread my post from Friday. Try as hard as you can to comprehend a full sentence. And always refer to points 2&3 if you want to quote me.
You are misreading the chart. It did not
Quote: Ace2[I said it hit your arbitrary stop loss point of 873 and even went below 869 long before any substantial rebound began.
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in fact, it jumped 4 points immediately after dipping below the '80 point, which is expected behavior. I mean come on, the trade I did do that day 898 to 903 was exactly the same sort of behavior. What the stock does after filling a rebound trade is immaterial.
Do you want to bet that you are misreading the chart? How much do you want to bet? I propose $10,000. just to make it easy and doable. Do you accept?
I say that the stock hit 878 and would have filled at 878, then bounced to 882. You keep saying that it went below and never rebounded. You are wrong.
That you continue to misread the charts is one thing. But that you start ranting with puerile insults, actually surprises me, because I would have thought you were above that sort of thing. It really bothers you that much to be proven wrong?
I think all of this stems from that you do not understand stock trading at all, otherwise you would see the beauty and easy predictability of both the trade I did do, and the one I proposed. At a minimum you would be able to read the chart and see that the stock dipped to 878, then immediately (within 2 minutes) rebounded to 882.
Quote: MDawgThe stock hit 878 at 11:44am. Then it rebounded to 882 within a couple minutes, by 11:46am. Period, proposed trade completed, done.
You are misreading the chart. It did notQuote: Ace2[I said it hit your arbitrary stop loss point of 873 and even went below 869 long before any substantial rebound began.
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in fact, it jumped 4 points immediately after dipping below the '80 point, which is expected behavior. I mean come on, the trade I did do that day 898 to 903 was exactly the same sort of behavior. What the stock does after filling a rebound trade is immaterial.
Do you want to bet that you are misreading the chart? How much do you want to bet? I propose $10,000. just to make it easy and doable. Do you accept?
I say that the stock hit 878 and would have filled at 878, then bounced to 882. You keep saying that it went below and never rebounded. You are wrong.
That you continue to misread the charts is one thing. But that you start ranting with puerile insults, actually surprises me, because I would have thought you were above that sort of thing. It really bothers you that much to be proven wrong?
I think all of this stems from that you do not understand stock trading at all, otherwise you would see the beauty and easy predictability of both the trade I did do, and the one I proposed. At a minimum you would be able to read the chart and see that the stock dipped to 878, then immediately (within 2 minutes) rebounded to 882.
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You get the last word. I’ll say no more on this subject unless you amend this post and add more insults
Are we playing the same chess game?
What is unclear about that?Quote: Ace2
You get the last word. I’ll say no more on this subject unless you amend this post and add more insults
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I thought we were done with this, but apparently it’s keeping you up at night.
Second attempt
Just give me the right answer.
Which is...that you misread the chart.
Now, if it does go that low again, I'd be looking to jump in at more like 845. Trading 101, well more like 201, about that a second bottom is often lower.
Quote: MDawgHave an order in for TSLA at 839, see if it fills.
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How many shares? If it fills, what is the selling price point?
tuttigym
Quote: MDawgJust takes time to get to my level. It's no shame that you can't understand what is going on, or why.
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Quote: MDawgBefore you question me, you had first better learn how to read a stock chart.
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Quote: Ace2
1) Are you able to read and comprehend English at an adult level?
2) Do you know how to use the Quote button on this forum?
3) Do you know how to copy and paste on a phone/computer?
...
Try as hard as you can to comprehend a full sentence.
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Ace2 and Mdawgs each suspended for three days for personal insults. Not that the offenses are equally bad, but both are subject to the usual three day minimum.
aw geez just when they were getting amicableQuote: WizardQuote: MDawgJust takes time to get to my level. It's no shame that you can't understand what is going on, or why.
link to original postQuote: MDawgBefore you question me, you had first better learn how to read a stock chart.
link to original postQuote: Ace2
1) Are you able to read and comprehend English at an adult level?
2) Do you know how to use the Quote button on this forum?
3) Do you know how to copy and paste on a phone/computer?
...
Try as hard as you can to comprehend a full sentence.
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Ace2 and Mdawgs each suspended for three days for personal insults. Not that the offenses are equally bad, but both are subject to the usual three day minimum.
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Quote: MDawgHave an order in for TSLA at 839, see if it fills.
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Got close to the low for the day. Actually, the low for the week.
I do that all the time.
I held it for only 10 points however. Cha'ching! It was a trade, not an intended hold.
Still expecting my long term TSLA to go back over 1000.
To not understand that a week in this market is an eternity, is to have learned nothing over the past couple decades or so.
I like NY Fed President Williams comment of “We need to get real interest rates above zero." Think about that and what it’s going to take to get your savings account rate back above the inflation rate
At 1.75 x GDP, the stock market is still more overvalued than ever before. The only way that kind of stratospheric valuation can be maintained is with with ultra-low interest rates.
Mush
The term was popularized by Robert De Niro’s “A Bronx Tale,” which included a famous quote: “Eddie Mush was a degenerate gambler. He was also the biggest loser in the whole world. They called him mush because everything he touched turned to mush.”
Robert De Niro initially had trouble finding a suitable actor to portray Eddie Mush, so he asked Chazz Palminteri if they could find the real Eddie Mush to play himself. They found Eddie Montanaro in the same neighborhood still losing bets. When they casted him, they became worried that he might “jinx” the film. On Eddie’s first day of filming, it rained.