Mdawgs Investments
June 13th, 2022 at 7:48:32 PM
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Bitcoin bois had a rough one yesterday.
June 14th, 2022 at 8:16:56 AM
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When I day trade, I'm in and out of the trade usually before I'm even able to take the time to do anything else, let alone login at WOV to post about it! Anyone who trades should understand that. And those who don't understand that, aren't asking the right questions.
But there are times when I have posted in advance that I have an order in to buy at such and such price, and then once filled, I post the results, which again, the sell almost always comes hard upon the buy.
If anyone wishes to propose a CHALLENGE1 CHALLENGE2 for any of these posted trades, I'm game.
But there are times when I have posted in advance that I have an order in to buy at such and such price, and then once filled, I post the results, which again, the sell almost always comes hard upon the buy.
If anyone wishes to propose a CHALLENGE1 CHALLENGE2 for any of these posted trades, I'm game.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
June 14th, 2022 at 8:22:12 AM
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Ace2, you did post sometime well after the fact that you sold some in January or so, but you also posted on a certain day that you were going to get stopped out if SPY dropped any further, which it did. So I'd think that if both posts were accurate you have been holding nothing for a while.
Which in my opinion, is the problem. Once sold out, after the given stock rises above your sell price, are you going to buy back at a higher price? because if not, you're shut out for the rest of your life.
Why did you even decide to sell now anyway? Why not at the end of 2018? or the beginning of 2016? There were savage drops then too.
Which in my opinion, is the problem. Once sold out, after the given stock rises above your sell price, are you going to buy back at a higher price? because if not, you're shut out for the rest of your life.
Why did you even decide to sell now anyway? Why not at the end of 2018? or the beginning of 2016? There were savage drops then too.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
June 14th, 2022 at 11:26:58 AM
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My final stop order did execute several weeks ago, around the time of that post. My intention was never to sell everything and I never had orders to do so. But I did go from about 90% invested on Jan-1 to about 40% currently. Until now, I've never been 60% cash or anywhere close to itQuote: MDawgAce2, you did post sometime well after the fact that you sold some in January or so, but you also posted on a certain day that you were going to get stopped out if SPY dropped any further, which it did. So I'd think that if both posts were accurate you have been holding nothing for a while.
Which in my opinion, is the problem. Once sold out, after the given stock rises above your sell price, are you going to buy back at a higher price? because if not, you're shut out for the rest of your life.
Why did you even decide to sell now anyway? Why not at the end of 2018? or the beginning of 2016? There were savage drops then too.
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Why now? I think I've explained this before, but the market had gone MUCH higher since 2016-2018 and the core valuation ratio, price to GDP, got higher than it's ever been (about 50% higher than the tech bubble). It's simply unsustainable, plus there are other factors indicating that the record-high stock valuations are about to plummet... like surging interest rates and inflation. Also, I made a ton of money over the years, especially the last five, so I'm fine selling a big chunk this year for huge profits. Never be disappointed when selling for a 200% profit...and they're all just paper gains until you sell.
I don't appreciate your implication that my previous posts could be inaccurate. I suggest you take a reading comprehension course and read them again
PS when was there a "savage drop" in 2016-2018? I must have been asleep
It’s all about making that GTA
June 16th, 2022 at 12:33:08 PM
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Dang, my forecast was two days prematureQuote: Ace2
the Dow could drop below 30,000 at any time now, maybe even tomorrow.
Today was almost too predictable. When the Fed raises the rate by the amount that everyone expected, the market goes up briefly. Then it goes straight back down. Then again, a 3% drop is starting to seem like just a normal day
It’s all about making that GTA
June 16th, 2022 at 2:05:38 PM
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Here's a post from March 14th.Quote: MDawgStock market definitely stalling of late, but when it gets going again it will g-g-g-o do not worry!
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I'm so glad I've been "buying the dips". Great call, MDAWG!!!
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jun 16, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
June 16th, 2022 at 2:25:42 PM
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That was on Apr-6. TSLA now trading at 638, so you must be really loading up now since it was a bargain at 1028 hahaQuote: MDawgQuote: MDawgHad the buy in order for a TSLA trade at 1028 was too cheap, didn't fill, at least not yet. As usual, this would be a trade for additional shares on top of my long term of the same.
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I actually got a fill on about the third dip of the day! after I placed the order. 1054 now. CHA'CHING!
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Actually, your purchase of TSLA at >1000 might turn out to the peak price of the most overhyped stock of the biggest market bubble in history. Like buying "dot-com" stocks in 1999
You were probably sheared (skinned?) like a sheep on this one, MDawg. There are sucker rallies in the initial stages of every crash. Look up the biggest daily % gains in history...most of them occurred during a crash
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jun 16, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
June 16th, 2022 at 2:32:20 PM
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How's this Mar-11th purchase working out for you?Quote: MDawgQuote: MDawgBot AMZN 2690 - went lower than that, but it's above 2700 again now.
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Definitely a good one, still holding those additional trading shares, plus of course my very long term AMZN shares.
Timing is everything!
Amazon announces 20-for-1 stock split, $10 billion buyback
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Timing is everything...
It’s all about making that GTA
June 16th, 2022 at 3:17:29 PM
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Quote: Ace2How's this Mar-11th purchase working out for you?
Timing is everything...
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Just remember it isn't a loss until you sell.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
June 16th, 2022 at 4:05:09 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: Ace2How's this Mar-11th purchase working out for you?
Timing is everything...
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Just remember it isn't a loss until you sell.
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I keep saying that with Cytodyn but MDawg disagrees.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
June 16th, 2022 at 4:28:58 PM
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Also remember: if you bought the Nasdaq in 2000 or certain real estate in 2005, it took FIFTEEN YEARS to recover! And that is just to recover its previous nominal value, so in inflation-adjusted terms you're still way below that previous value after many yearsQuote: DRich
Just remember it isn't a loss until you sell.
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Both of those examples are from very recent history...it's not like I had to cherry pick some statistic from the Great Depression.
You may be fine waiting 15 years to break even. I'm not
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jun 16, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
June 17th, 2022 at 8:58:50 AM
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Referring to what, a trade or trades I posted about opening long ago that I closed long ago?
I don't think people understand what trading is. On a given stock a higher price might lend to a great trade at that moment, while a lower price the same day might not. Arbitrary price points aren't what trading is about - the time to buy for a trade is when the time is right.
"It isn't as important to buy as cheap as possible as it is to buy at the right time."
- Jesse Lauriston Livermore.
I don't think people understand what trading is. On a given stock a higher price might lend to a great trade at that moment, while a lower price the same day might not. Arbitrary price points aren't what trading is about - the time to buy for a trade is when the time is right.
"It isn't as important to buy as cheap as possible as it is to buy at the right time."
- Jesse Lauriston Livermore.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
June 17th, 2022 at 2:03:50 PM
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Looking at the bear markets that bottomed in 2002 and 2009, the former bottomed with an S&P 500 value around 770 and the latter with a value about 670. Adjusting for nominal GDP growth, which has been 111% since 2002 and 56% since 2009, that implies a bottom between 1050 and 1620 for the current bear market, which is 56% to 71% below today's closing value of 3,675. Note that 1050 would be a whopping 78% drop from the S&P's January peak...that shows how it was much more overvalued that it's ever been, and still is at 3675.
Nobody knows how this will play out, but if bear market drops of this magnitude have happened twice just in the last twenty years, they can happen again. This time could be even worse since we have an asset bubble AND surging inflation/rates
Nobody knows how this will play out, but if bear market drops of this magnitude have happened twice just in the last twenty years, they can happen again. This time could be even worse since we have an asset bubble AND surging inflation/rates
It’s all about making that GTA
June 17th, 2022 at 2:16:19 PM
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I understand exactly what it is in your case. It's when you made a long term purchase (and specified it as such) of an extremely overhyped stock at the peak of the bubble and are losing your a$$ so far. So then you start saying it was actually just a "trade" and, of course, you made money.Quote: MDawgReferring to what, a trade or trades I posted about opening long ago that I closed long ago?
I don't think people understand what trading is.
Others have asked you to start posting your entry and exit points (as they happen) for these "trades", but that's not ever going to happen for obvious reasons. If some happen very quicky, then you could pre-post your intention to enter/exit at x prices
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jun 17, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
June 17th, 2022 at 9:57:30 PM
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Not all traders are successful. And few non-traders know enough about trading to understand it well. Even fewer are willing to put up some money to back up their erroneous assumptions. CHALLENGE1 CHALLENGE2
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 7th, 2022 at 9:59:05 PM
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We have some up action lately. Remember, a few weeks is an eternity in this market.
SPY is above 385, which means that anyone who sold out below, is locked out, unless wants to buy back higher!
SPY is above 385, which means that anyone who sold out below, is locked out, unless wants to buy back higher!
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 7th, 2022 at 11:04:31 PM
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So you’re calling this the bottom? Based on …?Quote: MDawgWe have some up action lately. Remember, a few weeks is an eternity in this market.
SPY is above 385, which means that anyone who sold out below, is locked out, unless wants to buy back higher!
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Didn’t you already call the bottom at SPY 430?
“Up action” haha. Like every bear market, this one has not been a ride straight down. Going by bear market averages, there is at least another 15% downside
Another very realistic scenario is that the person who sold at 385 starts buying back at 240. Market has dropped 50%+ twice in last 20 years…and from MUCH lower peak valuations
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jul 7, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
July 8th, 2022 at 9:54:27 AM
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at 381.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 8th, 2022 at 2:24:05 PM
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And Musk terminates Twitter merger agreement. Strap in your seatbelts, you Twitter equity holders.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
July 20th, 2022 at 8:32:25 AM
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SPY pushing 400, so all those who jettisoned at 381 should be thinking about how they might never be able to get back on board without buying back higher!
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 20th, 2022 at 8:50:54 AM
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Quote: Ace2
You may be fine waiting 15 years to break even. I'm not
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This sort of thinking is to misunderstand the markets. People have been predicting crashes for years now, and luckily I ignored all of them.
As an extreme example say you held AMZN all the way from...200 at the end of 1999 to 5 dollars at its bottom in 2001. (Those are the actual figures I recall from those times, not adjusting for any splits.) Well today it is an adjusted 2500 or so. So what's the problem?
People that tell you to go short, sell everything, expect a crypto or stock market extended winter that will last for years, do not understand the markets and never will.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 20th, 2022 at 11:41:51 AM
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MDawg, are you denying that it took the Nasdaq 15 years and the S&P 13 years to regain their 2000 highs? Actually, S&P might have just barely regained that high in 2007 right before it crashed over 50% again (for the second time in eight years). Currently the market is much more overvalued than in the 2000 bubble
Data shows that the very, very long-term trend of the US stock market is up, but also shows that it can easily be flat or down over a decade
AMZN is an extreme example…you’re correct there. For every AMZN in 1999 there were a thousand “dot-com” stocks that went to zero permanently.
Data shows that the very, very long-term trend of the US stock market is up, but also shows that it can easily be flat or down over a decade
AMZN is an extreme example…you’re correct there. For every AMZN in 1999 there were a thousand “dot-com” stocks that went to zero permanently.
It’s all about making that GTA
July 20th, 2022 at 11:44:33 AM
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I think that downward movement in 2000, involved a lot of companies that were unsound to begin with? The sound companies (like AMZN) rebounded did they not?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 20th, 2022 at 11:56:59 AM
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I don’t recommend selling everything and definitely don’t recommend shorting anything. Please educate those of us who do not understand market valuations and cycles? What new forces are going to propel the most overvalued market in history even higher?Quote: MDawg[
People that tell you to go short, sell everything, expect a crypto or stock market extended winter that will last for years, do not understand the markets and never will.
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It’s all about making that GTA
July 20th, 2022 at 11:58:30 AM
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Quote: Ace2I don’t recommend selling everything and definitely don’t recommend shorting anything. Please educate those of us who do not understand market valuations and cycles? What new forces are going to propel the most overvalued market in history even higher?Quote: MDawg[
People that tell you to go short, sell everything, expect a crypto or stock market extended winter that will last for years, do not understand the markets and never will.
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I don't think anyone believes that every stock is going to go up but that doesn't mean that some are not under valued. It is easy, just pick the ones that are going up.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 20th, 2022 at 12:01:00 PM
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People have to put their money somewhere.
As far as where exactly, within the market, industry leaders are the way to go. Not very hard.
As far as where exactly, within the market, industry leaders are the way to go. Not very hard.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 20th, 2022 at 12:04:13 PM
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Problem is, almost no one can pick individual stocks successfully…except for Warren Buffet and MDawg. Even the fund managers can’t beat the S&P long termQuote: DRich
I don't think anyone believes that every stock is going to go up but that doesn't mean that some are not under valued. It is easy, just pick the ones that are going up.
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People who think they can beat the overall market are no different from people who think they can beat the casino long term. And they do beat it in their minds because they seem to only remember their big wins
It’s all about making that GTA
July 20th, 2022 at 1:10:27 PM
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Quote: MDawgI think that downward movement in 2000, involved a lot of companies that were unsound to begin with? The sound companies (like AMZN) rebounded did they not?
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Survivorship bias, much?
July 20th, 2022 at 2:18:37 PM
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Quote: Ace2Problem is, almost no one can pick individual stocks successfully…except for Warren Buffet and MDawg. Even the fund managers can’t beat the S&P long termQuote: DRich
I don't think anyone believes that every stock is going to go up but that doesn't mean that some are not under valued. It is easy, just pick the ones that are going up.
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People who think they can beat the overall market are no different from people who think they can beat the casino long term. And they do beat it in their minds because they seem to only remember their big wins
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Wrong again Ace. When oil, the commodity, went to zero in late 2020, I purchased thousands of shares of XOM (Exon-Mobil}. In January, or thereabouts, of 2021, I posted to this forum my feelings of the strength of the stock and the company especially their dividend history. I assume you and others ignored me. This last May of 2022, I sold it all, and my profit was over 108%. The stock went up a bit from there but has since retreated to levels below my selling price. I continue to watch the price of oil and some of the stocks associated with it. If I feel the time is right, I will repurchase otherwise, I am quite comfortable with where I am knowing that my IRA has more than doubled tax free.
tuttigym
July 20th, 2022 at 2:33:51 PM
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Tuttigym, you seem to have no comprehension of “long-term”. Anyone can talk about that one time they got really lucky on a stock trade or at the craps table, but literally almost no one can beat the S&P over the long run. Research it.
I seem to remember you posted your long-term returns before and they were horrible
I seem to remember you posted your long-term returns before and they were horrible
It’s all about making that GTA
July 20th, 2022 at 3:13:03 PM
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Quote: Ace2Tuttigym, you seem to have no comprehension of “long-term”. Anyone can talk about that one time they got really lucky on a stock trade or at the craps table, but literally almost no one can beat the S&P over the long run. Research it.
I seem to remember you posted your long-term returns before and they were horrible
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Wrong again, ACE. I had a diversified portfolio for a term of years that grew quite nicely, and I sold all about a year before the crash in 2006. I then put those funds into an old annuity which had a guaranteed rate of return of
4 1/2% where they continue to grow at a high five figure rate tax deferred. I am quite confident my strategy, over the past 20 years has beaten the S&P. As far as the "lucky" stock trade, think what you will. I know better.
tuttigym
July 20th, 2022 at 3:35:14 PM
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Exactly. The market has tripled since 2006 and you earned 4.5% per year. For most of that period you barely kept up with inflation. Probably a real return around 1% per yearQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2Tuttigym, you seem to have no comprehension of “long-term”. Anyone can talk about that one time they got really lucky on a stock trade or at the craps table, but literally almost no one can beat the S&P over the long run. Research it.
I seem to remember you posted your long-term returns before and they were horrible
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Wrong again, ACE. I had a diversified portfolio for a term of years that grew quite nicely, and I sold all about a year before the crash in 2006. I then put those funds into an old annuity which had a guaranteed rate of return of
4 1/2% where they continue to grow at a high five figure rate tax deferred. I am quite confident my strategy, over the past 20 years has beaten the S&P. As far as the "lucky" stock trade, think what you will. I know better.
tuttigym
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It’s all about making that GTA
July 20th, 2022 at 5:11:14 PM
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Quote: Ace2Exactly. The market has tripled since 2006 and you earned 4.5% per year. For most of that period you barely kept up with inflation. Probably a real return around 1% per yearQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2Tuttigym, you seem to have no comprehension of “long-term”. Anyone can talk about that one time they got really lucky on a stock trade or at the craps table, but literally almost no one can beat the S&P over the long run. Research it.
I seem to remember you posted your long-term returns before and they were horrible
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Wrong again, ACE. I had a diversified portfolio for a term of years that grew quite nicely, and I sold all about a year before the crash in 2006. I then put those funds into an old annuity which had a guaranteed rate of return of
4 1/2% where they continue to grow at a high five figure rate tax deferred. I am quite confident my strategy, over the past 20 years has beaten the S&P. As far as the "lucky" stock trade, think what you will. I know better.
tuttigym
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That’s an overstatement of inflation over that period. 16 years at 4.5% is just more than a doubling.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
July 20th, 2022 at 6:02:30 PM
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I said real return of 1% on 4.5% tax-free gross return so that would be inflation of 3.5%. The official inflation rate” might be a bit lower over that period, but look at the cost of where most people spend most of their money…housing, health insurance and education…those costs probably doubled or even tripled in the last 16 years.Quote: unJon
That’s an overstatement of inflation over that period. 16 years at 4.5% is just more than a doubling.
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Last edited by: Ace2 on Jul 20, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
July 21st, 2022 at 10:37:18 AM
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Quote: Ace2Exactly. The market has tripled since 2006 and you earned 4.5% per year. For most of that period you barely kept up with inflation. Probably a real return around 1% per year
So you personally invested into a mutual fund or some such vehicle that was investing in the S&P 500, not individual stocks or your own diversified portfolio, but just the 500 and tripled your investment from 2006 to the present and you did not deviate?
With my investments, I paid off my house, my cars, all my debt, paid for my son's wedding in Vegas, put an addition on my house, and became financially comfortable as I sit today. I hope your personal situation is similar.
tuttigym
July 21st, 2022 at 11:56:56 AM
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You’ve never heard of an index fund ? They were invented decades ago (by Vanguard IIRC) because after years of trying to beat the S&P and failing, some “genius” decided to just invest in the index and beat 99.99% of fund managers. He’s probably also PL flat bettor with 3-4-5 odds lol.Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2Exactly. The market has tripled since 2006 and you earned 4.5% per year. For most of that period you barely kept up with inflation. Probably a real return around 1% per year
So you personally invested into a mutual fund or some such vehicle that was investing in the S&P 500, not individual stocks or your own diversified portfolio, but just the 500 and tripled your investment from 2006 to the present and you did not deviate?
With my investments, I paid off my house, my cars, all my debt, paid for my son's wedding in Vegas, put an addition on my house, and became financially comfortable as I sit today. I hope your personal situation is similar.
tuttigym
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I’ve been 80% + invested in the index for longer than that. At most 5% “play money” for a few individual stocks like Berkshire, which I still hold in a taxable account since selling would generate a huge capital gain. Never 100% invested as I always maintain a safe margin of cash, that is until January of this year when I sold a bunch of SPY in tax-deferred accounts…my first time to “time the market” as it’s more overvalued than anytime in history. I sold for such enormous gains that I’m fine never re-investing it, though most likely I’ll buy back in around SPY 275, after it’s rebounded 20% from the bottom. Those big gains are just theoretical until you cash out
You must have quite a large portfolio to pay for all those things with a measly 4.5%. And old enough to withdraw from an IRA tax/penalty free. It sounds like you invest like you gamble…thinking you can beat the market with these erratic plays yet falling dismally over the long run
It’s all about making that GTA
July 21st, 2022 at 1:19:27 PM
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I have friends who trade SPY, mostly because it is very liquid and they are able to get fills easily for large numbers of shares. I have rarely bothered with it. Even if you look at SPY over a very nice, ideal period, say, 2010 to 2021, it had a - what 4 to 5 bagger over the course of when it was around 100 to when it peaked at around 450 or so? So if anyone got "huge gains" from SPY, he too, must have been holding large amounts of it. A few hundred K over 11 years is not "huge gains" in my book.
4.5% a year compared to a 4 bagger that took say 11 years is yes much much better (would need something like 16 years at 4.5% to double your investment), but compared to industry leader individual stocks over that same 11 year period SPY was a laggard.
And market timing doesn't work, all it contributes to is getting shut out permanently or having to buy back higher. Which is why selling out SPY at a stop loss of 381 will be proven to be a big mistake. Now trading, that is a different story. In trading the intent is to get in and out at a profit each time. On the other hand, once you have held supposedly for 11 years then why not just keep holding. I've held lots of individual stocks longer than 11 years I am in no hurry to sell them.
I think over all we are talking about different investment strategies. If you are risk averse, and not interested in individual stocks then sure stick to funds, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that someone who is into only funds and afraid of individual stocks would market time? The way that you flat bet craps runs hand in hand with a funds only investment strategy, but doesn't at all gibe with market timing attempts - unless, you need the money for something or have decided to exit the market, which is fine, but has nothing to do with thinking that the sky is falling (which it isn't).
4.5% a year compared to a 4 bagger that took say 11 years is yes much much better (would need something like 16 years at 4.5% to double your investment), but compared to industry leader individual stocks over that same 11 year period SPY was a laggard.
And market timing doesn't work, all it contributes to is getting shut out permanently or having to buy back higher. Which is why selling out SPY at a stop loss of 381 will be proven to be a big mistake. Now trading, that is a different story. In trading the intent is to get in and out at a profit each time. On the other hand, once you have held supposedly for 11 years then why not just keep holding. I've held lots of individual stocks longer than 11 years I am in no hurry to sell them.
I think over all we are talking about different investment strategies. If you are risk averse, and not interested in individual stocks then sure stick to funds, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that someone who is into only funds and afraid of individual stocks would market time? The way that you flat bet craps runs hand in hand with a funds only investment strategy, but doesn't at all gibe with market timing attempts - unless, you need the money for something or have decided to exit the market, which is fine, but has nothing to do with thinking that the sky is falling (which it isn't).
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 21st, 2022 at 2:10:49 PM
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Let me get this straight: a 350% gain over 11 years is not a good gain? Take your net worth right now...you would be disappointed if it was "only" 4x it's current value 11 years from now? At that rate a million dollars turns into a billion dollars over a person's investing life...call that a 50 year period.
Most of my SPY sales were at 432 back in January, 10% below the record high that we might not see again for many years, assuming the market cycles continue like they always have.
So keep holding forever and take your shares to the grave? I'm totally content if my sales earlier this year are final, and the the only way I'd buy them back is if (when?) the market drops much, much lower. That's not market timing, that's locking in profits by buying low and selling VERY high. You gotta sell some sometime or what's the point
Of course there will always be a tiny percentage of individual stocks that crush the market averages over a long period, but almost nobody beats the long-term average when they net their few big/lucky winners against their many losers. Fund managers, including hedge fund managers, can't beat it and neither can you. People who believe otherwise are the same people that believe they can beat the casino long-term...and falsely claim that they do. In reality, they lose tons of money making these wild plays based on gut feelings and thinking that one day they will hit the jackpot. I’d bet a dollar to a dime that you don’t really understand the companies or market sectors/trends of the individual stocks you own…you’re just gambling with those hyped-up stocks, not investing
Your definition of "risk-averse" does not gibe with the the general definition. I was around 90% invested (almost entirely in SPY) until January and by any normal measure that's actually too much risk for my age (not so old but not 28 either), Risk averse would be more like a 40% stock, 60% conservative bond/fixed income portfolio
Most of my SPY sales were at 432 back in January, 10% below the record high that we might not see again for many years, assuming the market cycles continue like they always have.
So keep holding forever and take your shares to the grave? I'm totally content if my sales earlier this year are final, and the the only way I'd buy them back is if (when?) the market drops much, much lower. That's not market timing, that's locking in profits by buying low and selling VERY high. You gotta sell some sometime or what's the point
Of course there will always be a tiny percentage of individual stocks that crush the market averages over a long period, but almost nobody beats the long-term average when they net their few big/lucky winners against their many losers. Fund managers, including hedge fund managers, can't beat it and neither can you. People who believe otherwise are the same people that believe they can beat the casino long-term...and falsely claim that they do. In reality, they lose tons of money making these wild plays based on gut feelings and thinking that one day they will hit the jackpot. I’d bet a dollar to a dime that you don’t really understand the companies or market sectors/trends of the individual stocks you own…you’re just gambling with those hyped-up stocks, not investing
Your definition of "risk-averse" does not gibe with the the general definition. I was around 90% invested (almost entirely in SPY) until January and by any normal measure that's actually too much risk for my age (not so old but not 28 either), Risk averse would be more like a 40% stock, 60% conservative bond/fixed income portfolio
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jul 21, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
July 21st, 2022 at 4:25:44 PM
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Quote: Ace2Tuttigym, you seem to have no comprehension of “long-term”. Anyone can talk about that one time they got really lucky on a stock trade or at the craps table, but literally almost no one can beat the S&P over the long run. Research it.
I seem to remember you posted your long-term returns before and they were horrible
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I think you are wrong and are disregarding insider information.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 21st, 2022 at 4:38:44 PM
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My comments are based on the assumption of no illegal activity in the casino or stock market
It’s all about making that GTA
July 24th, 2022 at 4:10:43 PM
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They Thought ‘Crypto Banks’ Were Safe, and Then Came the Crash
Crypto firms such as Celsius and Voyager pitched themselves as good alternatives to traditional lenders
I believe you may read the article here without a WSJ subscription:
https://archive.ph/oQK0H
The crash wasn't due to decline in values of btc ethereum etc. but in the inability of firms to cover the value of so called stable coins. When investors are posting the hotline number for suicide prevention, that's indicative of a bad scene!
I actually have a fair amount locked into a stable coin collecting, at present 14% per year, but it's not one of the fly by night ones.
Crypto firms such as Celsius and Voyager pitched themselves as good alternatives to traditional lenders
I believe you may read the article here without a WSJ subscription:
https://archive.ph/oQK0H
The crash wasn't due to decline in values of btc ethereum etc. but in the inability of firms to cover the value of so called stable coins. When investors are posting the hotline number for suicide prevention, that's indicative of a bad scene!
I actually have a fair amount locked into a stable coin collecting, at present 14% per year, but it's not one of the fly by night ones.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 27th, 2022 at 10:18:46 AM
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Actually I am running into a little problem myself with trying to get funds out of one of these web wallets. The outfit where I keep most of my crypto has me verified to the level where I should be able to withdraw $200K in fiat (in my case, US dollars) per day, and I sold a couple days ago about $300K in stable coins and clicked to withdraw the cash by ACH to my linked bank account.
Although this was beyond the withdrawal limit for the day, the withdrawal was accepted but put into review. If I had thought about it I would have kept the withdrawal under $200K but I had never withdrawn before and I figured if this was not allowed the system would have told me to withdraw less.
Now the outfit is wanting me to verify myself beyond the level I am currently verified, including with a social security number and proof of income, assets, and a lot of other nonsense, before allowing the withdrawal. I am coming back with, just let me withdraw the $200K a day as allowed so far, but they are being slow in conceding the point.
Most of the $300K just represents accumulated interest on the principal, which is why I figured I should at least get that out to limit my exposure a little.
So, yeah, it's never a problem. Until it is.
I should have just transferred the crypto to a corporate web wallet I have which is more fully verified and then sold it and transferred the cash.
Although this was beyond the withdrawal limit for the day, the withdrawal was accepted but put into review. If I had thought about it I would have kept the withdrawal under $200K but I had never withdrawn before and I figured if this was not allowed the system would have told me to withdraw less.
Now the outfit is wanting me to verify myself beyond the level I am currently verified, including with a social security number and proof of income, assets, and a lot of other nonsense, before allowing the withdrawal. I am coming back with, just let me withdraw the $200K a day as allowed so far, but they are being slow in conceding the point.
Most of the $300K just represents accumulated interest on the principal, which is why I figured I should at least get that out to limit my exposure a little.
So, yeah, it's never a problem. Until it is.
I should have just transferred the crypto to a corporate web wallet I have which is more fully verified and then sold it and transferred the cash.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 27th, 2022 at 11:56:36 AM
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Quote: Ace2most likely I’ll buy back in around SPY 275, after it’s rebounded 20% from the bottom.
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The problem with arbitrary buy and sell points is they usually end up shooting you in the foot.
Out at 381, back in above 400? or forever hold your peace.
You're out Tom, maybe forever.
I laugh at people who say "I'll buy AMZN at 1000" (adjusted 50, post split) just because it drops a little from 2500 (adjusted 125). Those people are the ones who end up standing around with their hands in their pockets forever.
Quote: Ace2We are clearly in an asset bubble...and it's not just the stock market. Better have an exit plan unless you're quite young and don't need your invested money for several decades
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Quote: Ace2
You may be fine waiting 15 years to break even. I'm not
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It is to not understand the current stock market to think that anything takes fifteen years let alone "several decades" to recover. A few weeks in this market is like an eternity. Months is about the longest it takes for a given solid stock to recover. Even NFLX is back to pushing 230.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 27th, 2022 at 12:33:54 PM
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If we follow the same pattern as the last two rate hikes, market will be back down five to ten percent within two weeks
It’s all about making that GTA
July 27th, 2022 at 1:48:14 PM
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If you are so certain of that, why not short the market now?
In any case, so far I have been proven right in terms of SPY recovery over the past month. Not to mention other stocks that have gone back up nicely too.
In any case, so far I have been proven right in terms of SPY recovery over the past month. Not to mention other stocks that have gone back up nicely too.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 27th, 2022 at 3:09:17 PM
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Because I’m not certain of short-term movements. No one is. Just saying the pattern has been a slight blip up the day of the rate announcement then a strong regression back into the bear market slide. I don’t care if that actually happens as I’m only concerned with fundamentals and the medium/long-term. I’m an investor, not a gambler…I believe you are just a gambler going by gut feelings.
What we do know for certain is that the current market is more overvalued than any time in history. If you think it’s “just gonna keep going up”, especially with the highest inflation we’ve seen in nearly a half-century, then that’s standard bubble mentality. That’s the way the majority (the sheep) think. Hell, I used to think that way but now I’ve been investing long enough to have seen a couple cycles.
I suggest you look at the last few market bubbles (you don’t have to go back too many years) to get examples of how this one will play out.
What we do know for certain is that the current market is more overvalued than any time in history. If you think it’s “just gonna keep going up”, especially with the highest inflation we’ve seen in nearly a half-century, then that’s standard bubble mentality. That’s the way the majority (the sheep) think. Hell, I used to think that way but now I’ve been investing long enough to have seen a couple cycles.
I suggest you look at the last few market bubbles (you don’t have to go back too many years) to get examples of how this one will play out.
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jul 27, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
July 27th, 2022 at 4:37:32 PM
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In the current era the Fed has been far too conservative. Time and time again they have left rates way too low, way too long, actually making bubbles and subsequent busts worse
So they just raised the rate to 2.25%…yeah like that’s going to reign in 9% inflation (that they caused in the first place, and is still accelerating). It’s a joke. At some point in the near future they will be forced to start making substantial increases, and then you will see what happens to asset valuations. Hint: plummet
So they just raised the rate to 2.25%…yeah like that’s going to reign in 9% inflation (that they caused in the first place, and is still accelerating). It’s a joke. At some point in the near future they will be forced to start making substantial increases, and then you will see what happens to asset valuations. Hint: plummet
It’s all about making that GTA
July 27th, 2022 at 5:05:20 PM
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Quote: Ace2In the current era the Fed has been far too conservative. Time and time again they have left rates way too low, way too long, actually making bubbles and subsequent busts worse
So they just raised the rate to 2.25%…yeah like that’s going to reign in 9% inflation (that they caused in the first place, and is still accelerating). It’s a joke. At some point in the near future they will be forced to start making substantial increases, and then you will see what happens to asset valuations. Hint: plummet
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I really doubt that we will see an increase more than 75 basis points. I would be surprised if the one next month is greater than 50. The initial goal is to get the inflation rate down to 5% or so and then they will do very small moves. I really doubt the rate will go above 3.5%.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 27th, 2022 at 5:11:06 PM
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When I first got involved with the stock market in the late '90s I recall Greenspan was constantly raising interest rates and warning against "irrational exuberance" but no one cared and the markets kept roaring. I recall particularly this one broadcast on CNBC where Greenspan was filmed walking away after raising interest rates "Another 3/4 point increase" to the backdrop of the Nasdaq went up to another record high. 😆 When markets started to go down I don't think it had anything to do with interest rates - I think it was mostly just because crapola companies that had no net profit and little potential were overbought.
But still, then as today momentum is most of what keeps many stocks going up, and as long as companies are able to deliver at earnings times, stock prices will continue to go up.
Also, by the mid-2000s people were able to buy homes really any real estate at all based on stated stated stated income - nothing was verified. The crash that started in 2008, happened because people were holding mortgages they just could not afford to pay other than based perhaps on interest only payments for a few years. Today, it's very hard to get any decent real estate loan without full docs, so the potential for across the board wipeouts is lessened.
Just a different scene today, and the fact that even after things go down they end up going higher still even in the mid term means the party isn't over.
In any case, the crash never comes when you expect it.
But still, then as today momentum is most of what keeps many stocks going up, and as long as companies are able to deliver at earnings times, stock prices will continue to go up.
Also, by the mid-2000s people were able to buy homes really any real estate at all based on stated stated stated income - nothing was verified. The crash that started in 2008, happened because people were holding mortgages they just could not afford to pay other than based perhaps on interest only payments for a few years. Today, it's very hard to get any decent real estate loan without full docs, so the potential for across the board wipeouts is lessened.
Just a different scene today, and the fact that even after things go down they end up going higher still even in the mid term means the party isn't over.
In any case, the crash never comes when you expect it.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 27th, 2022 at 5:12:43 PM
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Quote: DRich
I really doubt that we will see an increase more than 75 basis points. I would be surprised if the one next month is greater than 50. The initial goal is to get the inflation rate down to 5% or so and then they will do very small moves. I really doubt the rate will go above 3.5%.
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Yep, that’s what <almost> everyone is saying
It’s all about making that GTA
