Mdawgs Investments
April 29th, 2022 at 3:54:14 PM
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Right, but selling at the 52 week low is like saying that a stock that has dropped this far, that fast, will not recover. I remember in early 2016, AMZN dropped a tremendous amount in a month or two, like there was no bottom, due to fears of China's economic slowdown, and next thing you know...another ATH! Also, Aug 2018 to Dec 2018, ridiculous drops too, followed within a few months by...ATHs!
Granted -400 -500 in one day for AMZN is I believe unprecedented but I wouldn't give up here, if you held this long, might as well hang in there.
Usually the way these things work is early in the morning the stock drops EVEN MORE and flushes out the last of the weak hands, and then next thing you know...roarage!
Granted -400 -500 in one day for AMZN is I believe unprecedented but I wouldn't give up here, if you held this long, might as well hang in there.
Usually the way these things work is early in the morning the stock drops EVEN MORE and flushes out the last of the weak hands, and then next thing you know...roarage!
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
April 29th, 2022 at 3:56:08 PM
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As far as holding through earnings, if I hadn't done that over the years I would have missed out on ridiculous gains. You just can't have a blanket rule about selling here or there. More often than not, AMZN and other FANG stocks Island Hop during earnings.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
April 29th, 2022 at 5:52:11 PM
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Past year or two…holding thru earnings hasn’t had a favorable risk reward. Some of these tech stocks have gotten absolutely destroyed on GOOD numbers.
Market just doesn’t seem well. Impossible to time, obviously. But Powell WILL drop stocks. That much I know. Guy is like a plague.
When I see stocks consistently flush into end of day…seems a fundamental problem.
Musk also pulled a fast one…Vowing not to sell Tesla shares unless to satisfy tax burden. He sold $8 billion to fund his Twitter acquisition. Don’t like it when guys violate an oath. “First one in, last one out”. Not anymore.
Market just doesn’t seem well. Impossible to time, obviously. But Powell WILL drop stocks. That much I know. Guy is like a plague.
When I see stocks consistently flush into end of day…seems a fundamental problem.
Musk also pulled a fast one…Vowing not to sell Tesla shares unless to satisfy tax burden. He sold $8 billion to fund his Twitter acquisition. Don’t like it when guys violate an oath. “First one in, last one out”. Not anymore.
Last edited by: TDVegas on Apr 29, 2022
April 29th, 2022 at 6:24:53 PM
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Y'all are thinking micro when you should be thinking macro. I don't give a rat's a$$ what the next earnings report is.
We are clearly in an asset bubble...and it's not just the stock market. Better have an exit plan unless you're quite young and don't need your invested money for several decades
We are clearly in an asset bubble...and it's not just the stock market. Better have an exit plan unless you're quite young and don't need your invested money for several decades
It’s all about making that GTA
April 30th, 2022 at 4:49:54 AM
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Quote: Ace2Y'all are thinking micro when you should be thinking macro. I don't give a rat's a$$ what the next earnings report is.
We are clearly in an asset bubble...and it's not just the stock market. Better have an exit plan unless you're quite young and don't need your invested money for several decades
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I ‘feel’ like you will be correct, but I’ve had that same ‘feeling’ a dozen times over the past 3 1/2 decades of my investing life. Fortunately, I’ve stayed invested in stocks the entire time. You are trying to time the market, which for most of us is is a failed strategy. I think (please don’t suspend me!) there is hope around the corner in the 2022 election. I’ll leave it at that!
April 30th, 2022 at 6:22:15 AM
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As I mentioned in this post,
Quote: MDawgWhere's the top? If you're always thinking in those terms, you'll never get very far.
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I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
April 30th, 2022 at 7:44:13 AM
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Quote: Ace2Y'all are thinking micro when you should be thinking macro. I don't give a rat's a$$ what the next earnings report is.
We are clearly in an asset bubble...and it's not just the stock market. Better have an exit plan unless you're quite young and don't need your invested money for several decades
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“The stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions.” - Paul Samuelson
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
April 30th, 2022 at 10:15:19 AM
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Not that I have a lot of sympathy…NFLX CEO Reed Hastings has lost about 80% of his net worth. Confusingly, he added more shares at $400 only a few weeks ago. He had to know the numbers were going to be bad.
The issue becomes on an employee level where stock options are a part of employee compensation. My guess is those options are now worthless. This is what killed morale at Facebook when shares crashed. Those employees have no impetus to stick around and look for opportunities to jump ship.
The issue becomes on an employee level where stock options are a part of employee compensation. My guess is those options are now worthless. This is what killed morale at Facebook when shares crashed. Those employees have no impetus to stick around and look for opportunities to jump ship.
May 2nd, 2022 at 7:15:22 AM
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NFLX seems to have found a bottom, but AMZN still sliding.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
May 2nd, 2022 at 2:29:51 PM
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AMZN finished green…but was down $80 plus earlier. First day I can remember where stocks finished on a high note.
Still doesn’t bode well…all stocks need to see some follow thru. One day pops met by next day bigger drops has been the mantra. Reed Hastings of NFLX (not that I have a lot of sympathy) lost billionaire status.
Tesla, FB were the winners today.
Still doesn’t bode well…all stocks need to see some follow thru. One day pops met by next day bigger drops has been the mantra. Reed Hastings of NFLX (not that I have a lot of sympathy) lost billionaire status.
Tesla, FB were the winners today.
May 2nd, 2022 at 5:07:02 PM
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Quote: MDawgUsually the way these things work is early in the morning the stock drops EVEN MORE and flushes out the last of the weak hands, and then next thing you know...roarage!
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I wouldn't go so far as to say that this is exactly what happened today, but given that AMZN was down something like a hundred today and ended green, I'll take it!
Hoping for over 2500 tomorrow.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
May 3rd, 2022 at 8:39:14 AM
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Solid Cha’Ching situation - AMZN 2469 to 2519. And that’s what I’ve been looking for is a red morning that roars to green. Haven’t done much trading lately but was around and available for this action.
Now let’s just hope for the sake of my long term that AMZN gets well back over 2500 not just temporarily.
Now let’s just hope for the sake of my long term that AMZN gets well back over 2500 not just temporarily.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
May 4th, 2022 at 7:46:44 AM
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I did a couple AMZN trades one for 5 points one for 2 before the bottom dropped out. Been just watching since. I didn't catch that last bottom because it dropped too fast.
Stands to reason that AMZN will bounce majorly sooner or later.
Stands to reason that AMZN will bounce majorly sooner or later.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
May 4th, 2022 at 7:52:47 AM
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Is 2400 the new 2500 for AMZN?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
May 4th, 2022 at 12:43:57 PM
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Too bad you did not take my lowly advice on XOM (Exon-Mobil). My IRA just doubled as I just sold it all. Purchased at $45/share in Sept. 2020; went to $60 Jan. 2022; just sold at $91+. As MDawg would say: "CHA-CHIIING!!!!" Oh, and BTW, NO CAPITAL GAINS TAXES. Double CHA-CHIIING!!
tuttigym
tuttigym
Last edited by: tuttigym on May 4, 2022
May 4th, 2022 at 2:47:48 PM
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Quote: tuttigymToo bad you did not take my lowly advice on XOM (Exon-Mobil). My IRA just doubled as I just sold it all. Purchased at $45/share in Sept. 2020; went to $60 Jan. 2022; just sold at $91+. As MDawg would say: "CHA-CHIIING!!!!" Oh, and BTW, NO CAPITAL GAINS TAXES. Double CHA-CHIIING!!
tuttigym
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What are you going to do with the money? Bank it at less than one percent? Buy real estate?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 4th, 2022 at 3:08:57 PM
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AMZN has some issues. $8 billion loss on Rivian turned a profitable Q into a loss…first loss in a long time.
I did not know they had a heavy investment in Rivian.
They need to get their act together if they are going to make investments like this. From $175 to $33 in a few short months.
Should have explored Tesla.
I did not know they had a heavy investment in Rivian.
They need to get their act together if they are going to make investments like this. From $175 to $33 in a few short months.
Should have explored Tesla.
May 4th, 2022 at 8:51:48 PM
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I guess I like it fine, so far.
A lot of people made quick easy money during the Bull Market and for several years after. Any business was good, just as any stock is good on a rising market. People thought they were sharp operators, when actually they were just riding a lucky streak. But when the market is in a losing streak only the big or best operators may ride it out and still make money.
A lot of people made quick easy money during the Bull Market and for several years after. Any business was good, just as any stock is good on a rising market. People thought they were sharp operators, when actually they were just riding a lucky streak. But when the market is in a losing streak only the big or best operators may ride it out and still make money.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
May 5th, 2022 at 11:26:59 AM
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All gone. Yesterdays 1,000 point Dow gone 1 day later. Nasdaq down 5%.
Crippling day.
I’ve been saying for some time that you won’t get burned by not being in the market right now. You CAN get burned by being in the market.
Market has turned into baby steps up, weighted safe down. Risk to reward isn’t there 1:1. It’s more like 1:5.
Truth be told, Powell is like the plague on markets and I was VERY surprised to see yesterdays action. How it reversed in one day tells me it’s retail investors with nervous fingers, not institutional.
Crippling day.
I’ve been saying for some time that you won’t get burned by not being in the market right now. You CAN get burned by being in the market.
Market has turned into baby steps up, weighted safe down. Risk to reward isn’t there 1:1. It’s more like 1:5.
Truth be told, Powell is like the plague on markets and I was VERY surprised to see yesterdays action. How it reversed in one day tells me it’s retail investors with nervous fingers, not institutional.
Last edited by: TDVegas on May 5, 2022
May 5th, 2022 at 11:56:00 AM
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Quote: billryanQuote: tuttigymToo bad you did not take my lowly advice on XOM (Exon-Mobil). My IRA just doubled as I just sold it all. Purchased at $45/share in Sept. 2020; went to $60 Jan. 2022; just sold at $91+. As MDawg would say: "CHA-CHIIING!!!!" Oh, and BTW, NO CAPITAL GAINS TAXES. Double CHA-CHIIING!!
tuttigym
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What are you going to do with the money? Bank it at less than one percent? Buy real estate?
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Bank it at less than 1%; do some more research and pick another winner, plus, since it is in an IRA, when dispersed, use it for gifting and federal income taxes on my taxable income. Did the real estate thingy; too much work and headaches. How about you billryan, what would you do with a rather large tax deferred lump sum? leave it be and watch it erode? Head to your local casino and play $100 slots to build up those comps, free play offers, or buy real estate? BTW with the fed raising interest rates in a geometric progression, eventually CD's might make a comeback perhaps ....??
tuttigym
May 5th, 2022 at 10:09:32 PM
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When the FED makes an interest rate adjustment, typically the news results in a sort of see saw where at first it is looked upon one way, then after a period of digestion, another, but this sort of thing, up a thousand one day down a thousand the very next is at least a little unexpected, you might say.
I still traded AMZN today fine, because at least it behaved as expected when it's tanking in that it kept hitting certain short term bottoms, jumping, and then gradually hitting lower bottoms until it recovered (some) towards the end. In other words, dip buying is not dead! Just have to be extra nimble.
I assumed NFLX had found a bottom 195-200 but now it's even lower. Haven't traded it in a while. And again, a few weeks is an eternity in this market so let's see where we are at at the end of this month.
LYFT was hit pretty hard recently,
I still traded AMZN today fine, because at least it behaved as expected when it's tanking in that it kept hitting certain short term bottoms, jumping, and then gradually hitting lower bottoms until it recovered (some) towards the end. In other words, dip buying is not dead! Just have to be extra nimble.
I assumed NFLX had found a bottom 195-200 but now it's even lower. Haven't traded it in a while. And again, a few weeks is an eternity in this market so let's see where we are at at the end of this month.
LYFT was hit pretty hard recently,
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
May 6th, 2022 at 9:57:21 AM
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There’s just no conviction buying in the markets right now. A sneeze sets off a sell.
May 6th, 2022 at 10:03:38 AM
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Looks like a whip saw day. Volatility is up there.
May 6th, 2022 at 10:30:43 AM
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Quote: TDVegasThere’s just no conviction buying in the markets right now. A sneeze sets off a sell.
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From a distance, everything looks fine. I just got my quarterly report and I was pleasantly surprised.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 6th, 2022 at 10:40:51 AM
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Quote: billryanQuote: TDVegasThere’s just no conviction buying in the markets right now. A sneeze sets off a sell.
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From a distance, everything looks fine. I just got my quarterly report and I was pleasantly surprised.
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You must be highly diversified. I don’t believe in that unless it’s meant to protect wealth, not create it.
May 6th, 2022 at 11:24:21 AM
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As Musk tells stock market investors…when the trend is broken, get out. That trend is Amazon. A Q loss.
Dumping every day.
Dumping every day.
May 6th, 2022 at 12:44:37 PM
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Quote: TDVegasQuote: billryanQuote: TDVegasThere’s just no conviction buying in the markets right now. A sneeze sets off a sell.
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From a distance, everything looks fine. I just got my quarterly report and I was pleasantly surprised.
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You must be highly diversified. I don’t believe in that unless it’s meant to protect wealth, not create it.
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I'm 63 and no longer need to create wealth, just not piss it all away. I'm incredibly diversified. Everything from real estate to comics to bonds to original art, stocks and cash.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 6th, 2022 at 8:13:30 PM
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My baseball card portfolio is up 3.5% over the last 3 months, on a related note today is Willie Mays 91st birthday. My IRA most certainly is not.
May 9th, 2022 at 10:07:23 AM
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Another tech and market rout. Markets don’t have a good feel. Everything is dropping…. Amazon’s approaching a breach of $2,000…which is just kind of unbelievable.
May 9th, 2022 at 12:56:15 PM
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Quote: tuttigymToo bad you did not take my lowly advice on XOM (Exon-Mobil). My IRA just doubled as I just sold it all. Purchased at $45/share in Sept. 2020; went to $60 Jan. 2022; just sold at $91+. As MDawg would say: "CHA-CHIIING!!!!" Oh, and BTW, NO CAPITAL GAINS TAXES. Double CHA-CHIIING!!
tuttigym
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Quitting when ahead is never a bad decision. XOM just dropped about $7 today.
I had an exchange with Mr. MDawg about purchasing lower cost stocks in greater quantity than buying AMZN. Mr.MDawg kind of dismissed that idea. I speculate that buying 100 shares of AMZN @ $2500 per or $250k to reap a $10k profit, $100 increased price share, seems like a big risk when my same $250k purchase of XOM provided a $250k profit plus over the period of time I also reaped several thousands in dividends. ($3.48/share per year) It does puzzle me.
tuttigym
May 9th, 2022 at 1:13:41 PM
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Quote: tuttigymI had an exchange with Mr. MDawg about purchasing lower cost stocks in greater quantity than buying AMZN. Mr.MDawg kind of dismissed that idea.
He’s been saying add, add, add AMZN for some time now…and that’s probably from the $3,000 or higher point. Stocks goes up and stocks go down, right now that advice is a loser, big time. Not sure where the bottom is for Amazon…but $2,100 does not look to be it. Same goes for NFLX and just about any tech. TSLA. Even relatively less volatile stocks like MSFT are getting cratered.
Gates coming out today saying recession is coming.
Amazing how backwards we’ve become. Dole out stimulis like water, create inflation. Raise interest rates, create recession. All within 24 months.
There may be a time to nibble or go all in on stocks…but I’m going to go out on a limb, bottom is not here and there may be much more to go. Seeing NFLX lose 80% of its value in a few months tells me other stocks may have a LOT lower to go before bottom is hit. I honestly thought GOOG and AMZN would see some gains into their upcoming splits. Both have really dumped.
May 9th, 2022 at 1:24:19 PM
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Quote: MDawgAMZN is at or near a 52 week low - I'd say that's a buy.
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It was at $2,900 when you said this.
May 9th, 2022 at 5:27:23 PM
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Amazon has lost about $25 billion on its investment in Rivian in 6 months. Total bonehead move by CEO Jassy to invest in this company. Market cap of Rivian has gone from around $160 billion…6 months later, $20 billion.
Ford, which also owns about 15% of the stock…announced today they are selling off a stake of shares.
Ford, which also owns about 15% of the stock…announced today they are selling off a stake of shares.
Last edited by: TDVegas on May 9, 2022
May 9th, 2022 at 6:06:15 PM
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MDawg:
Do you ever apply your "quit while ahead" baccarat strategy to the stock market?
Do you ever apply your "quit while ahead" baccarat strategy to the stock market?
It’s all about making that GTA
May 9th, 2022 at 6:42:09 PM
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If he’s honest about his long term stock holdings…
NFLX has lost 75% in 6 months. My guess is he will never see $700 again. Gone. Far too much competition emerging in the TV market to think NFLX will recoup past glory.
TSLA has lost 36% in 5 months. Musk is getting sidetracked with Twitter. Very disappointing. He has too many hands in the cookie jar, imo. Spreading himself too thin.
Amazon has lost 45% in 6 months. Jassy is no Bezos. His Rivian investment is in the tank.
Apple has lost 18% in 6 months. The one stalwart…although not immune to a market downturn.
While there are some trading claims…my guess is many of those trades, especially in Amazon have not been listed here because they are currently underwater and were “converted” to long positions (red). Nobody is timing 100 of 100 stock trades (what he lists) profitably to the win side as it relates to a day trade or multi day trade. I don’t care if he holds a losing trade for a day or 2 or 3. Just far too many down days in a row to recoup those trades.
Obviously buy points are important on the long side overall…nevertheless, the paper losses on the long side have been staggering in just a short few months for anyone holding a lot of tech.
NFLX has lost 75% in 6 months. My guess is he will never see $700 again. Gone. Far too much competition emerging in the TV market to think NFLX will recoup past glory.
TSLA has lost 36% in 5 months. Musk is getting sidetracked with Twitter. Very disappointing. He has too many hands in the cookie jar, imo. Spreading himself too thin.
Amazon has lost 45% in 6 months. Jassy is no Bezos. His Rivian investment is in the tank.
Apple has lost 18% in 6 months. The one stalwart…although not immune to a market downturn.
While there are some trading claims…my guess is many of those trades, especially in Amazon have not been listed here because they are currently underwater and were “converted” to long positions (red). Nobody is timing 100 of 100 stock trades (what he lists) profitably to the win side as it relates to a day trade or multi day trade. I don’t care if he holds a losing trade for a day or 2 or 3. Just far too many down days in a row to recoup those trades.
Obviously buy points are important on the long side overall…nevertheless, the paper losses on the long side have been staggering in just a short few months for anyone holding a lot of tech.
Last edited by: TDVegas on May 9, 2022
May 10th, 2022 at 9:30:45 AM
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Been traveling a lot this year not much stock trading. Long terms down like everyone else’s!
What's interesting is that I was talking to a dealer, older dealer seriously I'd say had to be over seventy years old and somehow the topic of "quitting while ahead" came up. Dealer was saying that YES have to do that at the tables, but then added that was a stock trader and had lost three million in the last month. Now, I didn't know casino dealers had that kind of money, let alone to lose, but at this dealer's age, who knows.
What's interesting is that I was talking to a dealer, older dealer seriously I'd say had to be over seventy years old and somehow the topic of "quitting while ahead" came up. Dealer was saying that YES have to do that at the tables, but then added that was a stock trader and had lost three million in the last month. Now, I didn't know casino dealers had that kind of money, let alone to lose, but at this dealer's age, who knows.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
May 10th, 2022 at 12:50:03 PM
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I don’t trust the market right now. Nothing wants to hold on. Looking for any excuse to dump.
Market needs some follow thru. One day pops are simply met with 3 day drops.
Market needs some follow thru. One day pops are simply met with 3 day drops.
May 10th, 2022 at 1:21:42 PM
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Quote: MDawgBeen traveling a lot this year not much stock trading. Long terms down like everyone else’s!
What's interesting is that I was talking to a dealer, older dealer seriously I'd say had to be over seventy years old and somehow the topic of "quitting while ahead" came up. Dealer was saying that YES have to do that at the tables, but then added that was a stock trader and had lost three million in the last month. Now, I didn't know casino dealers had that kind of money, let alone to lose, but at this dealer's age, who knows.
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A dealer…$3 million to lose. Drug dealer?
I might categorize that comment as “inflated”.
Most dealers I hear from would drop their badges at the front door IF they had $3 million…not just $3 million to lose.
May 10th, 2022 at 1:50:13 PM
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Quote: TDVegasI don’t trust the market right now. Nothing wants to hold on. Looking for any excuse to dump.
Market needs some follow thru. One day pops are simply met with 3 day drops.
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Strike that, and reverse it.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 10th, 2022 at 2:23:43 PM
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Quote: TDVegas
Most dealers I hear from would drop their badges at the front door IF they had $3 million…not just $3 million to lose.
That would be my thought also.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
May 10th, 2022 at 4:00:21 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: TDVegas
Most dealers I hear from would drop their badges at the front door IF they had $3 million…not just $3 million to lose.
That would be my thought also.
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I’m guessing the dealer likes to embellish…to put it mildly.
Let’s face it, this isn’t some self made job or business where a person looks forward to going everyday. Dealing with the general public jobs usually has most looking for the exit door upon first opportunity. Throw in dealing with cranky gamblers..tourist and local, whew.
Maybe this guy is an enigma. But…I doubt it.
May 10th, 2022 at 4:02:08 PM
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Wonderful run for Amazon. 3 day losses of over $300…and you then get a green day. Up $1.40.
May 10th, 2022 at 8:05:22 PM
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I bet he has a daily blog about his multimillion (billion?) dollar portfolio haha. Good stories but to be taken with a grain of saltQuote: MDawgBeen traveling a lot this year not much stock trading. Long terms down like everyone else’s!
What's interesting is that I was talking to a dealer, older dealer seriously I'd say had to be over seventy years old and somehow the topic of "quitting while ahead" came up. Dealer was saying that YES have to do that at the tables, but then added that was a stock trader and had lost three million in the last month. Now, I didn't know casino dealers had that kind of money, let alone to lose, but at this dealer's age, who knows.
link to original post
It’s all about making that GTA
May 10th, 2022 at 8:09:21 PM
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I have a large stop-limit order on my SPY that came within 50 cents of executing midday today. I'd say 95% chance it will execute this week, probably tomorrow.Quote: TDVegasI don’t trust the market right now. Nothing wants to hold on. Looking for any excuse to dump.
Market needs some follow thru. One day pops are simply met with 3 day drops.
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It’s all about making that GTA
May 11th, 2022 at 9:43:59 AM
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I’d advise against a situation where you might end up selling at the bottom and then get stuck watching it rise the rest of your life and not want to reenter higher. When something good drops that far that fast it usually bounces back. If your stop loss was only fifty cents below yesterday's SPY close, you were stopped out today at the open at 398.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
May 11th, 2022 at 9:47:04 AM
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I did a pretty easy AMZN trade. Caught near the bottom 2134 on the first bounce, sold at 2148. CHA'CHING! It went all the way to 2202 actually on that run, but can't look back. Now back to 2134 again...yes you have to quit while ahead, when trading. Long term is somewhat different in that the "quit while ahead" framework is spread over years and to quit simply as soon as you're ahead a little would be to lose out on massive appreciation. Once ahead ridiculously there is little incentive to sell unless you need the cash for something.
As far as discussions with Tuttigym about anything, they tend to be misunderstood until clarified. I did not suggest buying AMZN to hold long term on all dips. The discussion was about buying some lower priced stock simply because the potential for gain was greater because it was less dollars per a share and then more shares could be purchased with the same amount of money. I dismissed that idea because it suggests that going for lower priced stocks is the way to go. That's not necessarily true. I'd go for an industry leader at 2000 a share before I'd buy some penny stock just because I could make a lot at it. We've already seen that story unfold.
As far as discussions with Tuttigym about anything, they tend to be misunderstood until clarified. I did not suggest buying AMZN to hold long term on all dips. The discussion was about buying some lower priced stock simply because the potential for gain was greater because it was less dollars per a share and then more shares could be purchased with the same amount of money. I dismissed that idea because it suggests that going for lower priced stocks is the way to go. That's not necessarily true. I'd go for an industry leader at 2000 a share before I'd buy some penny stock just because I could make a lot at it. We've already seen that story unfold.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
May 11th, 2022 at 9:55:28 AM
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Quote: MDawg
What's interesting is that I was talking to a dealer, older dealer seriously I'd say had to be over seventy years old and somehow the topic of "quitting while ahead" came up. Dealer was saying that YES have to do that at the tables, but then added that was a stock trader and had lost three million in the last month. Now, I didn't know casino dealers had that kind of money, let alone to lose, but at this dealer's age, who knows.
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Perhaps Alan Mendelson might want to interview this dealer on the pretext of that the dealer is pretty old and has been a dealer for about forever. I have the dealer's name and of course can supply Alan with info about where he works.
This is not the first older casino employee who confided to me that is a stock trader. I've had that same discussion with an older limo driver at one of the casinos. But, that limo driver didn't mention figures, just said that scheduled all shifts so that could hit the market from open to close daily, and preferred trades during the first hour of the market, which is generally right. When I heard a limo driver talking about trading the market, and this was towards the beginning of this year, the parallels to the shoe shine boy of the 1920s did occur to me. I recall the same sort of thing in 2000, where a Vegas taxi driver was suggesting bottoms on multiple stocks.
The limo driver of this year was a true trader though - all cash by the end of each day, no long term holdings whatsoever. I've never been into that sort of thing.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
May 11th, 2022 at 10:45:31 AM
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Quote: MDawgI did a pretty easy AMZN trade. Caught near the bottom 2134 on the first bounce, sold at 2148. CHA'CHING!
So how many shares are we talking about? $12 profit per share with a 50% short term capital gains tax (I believe) or net $6. I am not sure that qualifies as a CHA-CHING. So, 10,000 shares at $2134/share or an investment of $21,340,000 with a net profit of $6k. Worth the risk? Not sure about that, but hey, some fairly large setbacks over the past few days; easy come, easy go.
tuttigym
May 11th, 2022 at 11:10:53 AM
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Quote: MDawg
As far as discussions with Tuttigym about anything, they tend to be misunderstood until clarified. I did not suggest buying AMZN to hold long term on all dips. The discussion was about buying some lower priced stock simply because the potential for gain was greater because it was less dollars per a share and then more shares could be purchased with the same amount of money. I dismissed that idea because it suggests that going for lower priced stocks is the way to go. That's not necessarily true. I'd go for an industry leader at 2000 a share before I'd buy some penny stock just because I could make a lot at it. We've already seen that story unfold.
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Nowhere in my comments did I suggest "penny stocks." I have only touted one stock XOM which produces great dividends even when they did not show a profit one quarter back in 2020. Through all this turmoil and market uncertainty, the oil industry and their stocks have shown a steady gain because the price of oil has skyrocketed and the demand remains high. Even now, with the market "correcting," oil stocks remain strong and have bounced back from the last few days of minus trading. So basically, I did my due diligence with a simple research approach and produced a tax deferred six figure profit.
Another thought crossed my mind. You are a lawyer and a very tax savvy guy, I believe. I am sure you must have a rather large 401k and/or several IRA's. You have never mentioned that your trades and stock profits have been made within those financial instruments. When I asked you previously about capital gains taxes, you suggested that you paid them as part of your normal tax filings. Why would you do that when one could legally defer such taxes at a more favorable time.?
tuttigym
May 11th, 2022 at 11:18:59 AM
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You seem overly obsessed with taxes. As I stated, I know more about minimizing taxes than most, but at the same time, I don't worry too much about it versus just trying to make money. There are many ways to pay little or no taxes, not just the ones you are musing about. And you're the one conjecturing about what someone might or might not be doing to limit taxes. I don't even talk about any of that - I just mention the trades.
My usual block of AMZN shares is 1000 at a time for a trade. I have averaged in to as many as 3000 shares total in the past, but that hasn't been necessary in a long time as I've been right on the mark with the first lot.
My usual block of AMZN shares is 1000 at a time for a trade. I have averaged in to as many as 3000 shares total in the past, but that hasn't been necessary in a long time as I've been right on the mark with the first lot.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
