Mdawgs Investments

So what about this STOCK MARKET. This is getting ridiculous. I am making money daily trading, buying dips long, but there is no way to hold any of these trades safely beyond...minutes, because a new bottom emerges sooner or later. And in any case, any money I am making trading is more than eclipsed by the over all down from my long term holds.

The US stock market is the biggest gamble there is out there, at least right now.

Long term, it will recover though.

Quote: MDawg

So what about this STOCK MARKET. This is getting ridiculous. I am making money daily trading, buying dips long, but there is no way to hold any of these trades safely beyond...minutes, because a new bottom emerges sooner or later. And in any case, any money I am making trading is more than eclipsed by the over all down from my long term holds.

The US stock market is the biggest gamble there is out there, at least right now.

Long term, it will recover though.

I dollar cost average and don’t worry about it much. I’m only long term hold.

True, but it was fun watching the value of my account go up every day, instead of lately, down.

All these shorts making money these days will give it all back eventually!

Quote: unJon

I dollar cost average and don’t worry about it much. I’m only long term hold.

Look at this crazy market. At the last second today, just before close, I noticed AMZN at its low. I put in an order for 1675, FILLED. Right after it filled I swear I saw some bids at 1671 or so, but anyway it closed at 1675.61 I immediately entered an extended order to sell at 1680. It wasn't even a minute before this FILLED too at 1680. Nice trade!

But then I noticed asks as high at 1689, and I thought, okay this time I sold myself short. It's going to go (and maybe it will...later or tomorrow.) But no...now look at it, down -13 in the AH (after hours). Crazy market that stocks like AMZN could be red in the AH even after a day like today.

Yesterday I had a similar experience. I had, a fair amount of trading shares of AMZN that had a cost average of 1836. I was hatin', as it closed at well below that. So I put in an order to sell in the AH at 1837, and went to the gym. I really didn't expect much to happen. But then towards the end of my workout, around 5pm (California time), I came back to see that it had filled! Apparently the news of the President's coronavirus announcement had driven up the AH market.

Well, of course we all know what happened post announcement. Futures tanked, and the market was ultra-red again today. If I hadn't gotten that fill in the AH yesterday I woulda been down...considerable on those shares, this morning. I skated on that one. And again today.

But who knows, if AMZN opens up massively tomorrow then my fill at 1680 in the AH today will seem like a joke. In any case, I have a fair amount of very very long term shares of AMZN, and I am looking forward to AMZN's getting back above 2100.

This is of course part of the reason why the market is dropping. Traders like me and our computerized counterparts are buying and dumping quickly for a quick buck, not allowing stocks to go back up yet. When that changes and more buyers come in, willing to HOLD (and HODL - such as when it comes to bitcoin), everything will go back up and STAY up.

Crazy market.

Okay now this is what I mean. After I unloaded at 1680 the shares I had picked up literally a minute earlier at 1675 for a five point easy trade profit, AMZN started tanking, as futures started tanking. But right now, futures have reversed, and show a GREEN opening of over +600. That makes a lot more sense...after a DROP like today's, one would expect a relief rally tomorrow. Which, if it happens, will mean that the ones who dumped at a loss in the AH today as AMZN tanked up to -45 points will feel VERY VERY SORRY tomorrow morning.



But, who knows. Lotta hours between right now and the opening bell. Most likely, tomorrow the broader market will open green, go up a lot, sell off to a little red, and then close very very green. That would make the most sense given today's and this week's action - action that has fooled a lot of people into thinking that things are going one way or another, depending on the time and day.

In a true bull market, the bag holder of today often ends up being the biggest winner of tomorrow. And today's nice trade ends up having given away the farm based on tomorrow's pop. But, that's in a true bull market. We haven't seen that in a few weeks now. For a few weeks now my general strategy of buying and selling quickly has worked the best. I haven't given away anything in my trades, rather, I've saved my arse from huge potential losses and locked in small but acceptable profits by selling quickly after buying. $1000. or $2000. (this afternoon's closing trade was for $5000.) on a trade is fantastic when compared to being down five, ten , twenty or even (ulp) fifty or a hundred K due to trying to hold on for more, and now having to average in more shares. In a true bull market, no stop losses are needed on the top industry leader stocks, as the stock always comes back. Been there!

Pretty much what I suspected would happen, happened today - we opened at the highest levels, sold off to less than half, then roared back up, but not all the way back up. TSLA in particular dropped to as low as about +1 and then went back up.

Remains to be seen if the rest of my prediction, that we close at the highest levels, comes to pass.

TSLA just dropped to low of the day minus 11 or so. I'M GOIN' IN, LONG, 549.

Out already, 2 pts.

If it drops to 546 or so will go long again.

Back in at 546.

Out 548.

That's probably it for today's extra shares trading. $4000. profit. Usually the third time a trader tries the rinse repeat, assuming it drops low enough to look favorable (in this case TSLA 543), the bottom drops out and you end up stuck.

Yes...see...543 looked good chart wise, but it's pushing 540 now. The bottom is dropping out.

That's not to say that TSLA won't hit 560 later, but as far as a high probability trade, my first two were it.

See what I mean...TSLA pushing 525 now. The bottom dropped out.

The FIRST especially and often the second drops are the dips to hit, while the stock has elasticity, people still buying haven't given up hope. After that, the trade becomes lower probability. I've been doing this a very long time, and haven't had a losing trade in years.

Seems like corona isn't the only virus spreading around here.

The only thing better than made up baccarat winnings are made up day trading winnings.

No one is timing stock trade buys and sells in this market. Good god....not only killing the baccarat tables but also better than Warren Buffet in the market. All hail Caesar!

I hope Walmart isn’t sold out of shovels

Quote: TDVegas

No one is timing stock trade buys and sells in this market.

What are you TALKING about? That is the most absurd statement I've read in a LONG time.

First, Stocks 101. Do you know how a stock's price fluctuates? Only through a completed trade - a bid that the market maker (mm) matches with the ask. On a given day if a million sellers lined up and there were NO buyers, a stock's price would not change one whit.

So that is exactly what people are doing all day long, ESPECIALLY in this market, timing stock trades, buying on dips, shorting pops, all that. Why do you think the DOW, as I predicted last night, was up massively at the open, then sold off, also as I predicted to barely a hundred up, and then back up again?

Did I not only book the above two TSLA trades and predict, accurately, that a third one might be dangerous in that the bottom would drop out? And indeed, TSLA did drop as low as 502 or so after my second trade.

Although...I must admit, I didn't take my own advice. I did engage in a third trade. Just for half the normal shares, and I went for just a point scalp.


Anyway, let me log back into one of my stock accounts to make sure what I see is really there. That I didn't just imagine those six buys and fills today.

While I am at it, I had better take a trip to the bank and pull the drawer out of one of my safe deposit boxes to make sure all that lettuce I've been accumulating over the past two years in Baccarat and BJ, to toss on top of much more other cash I don't need and haven't spent, is real and not imaginary, because you all have got me doubting the reality of my daily existence.

Anyway, broader strokes. Let's hope that the traders (you know, the ones who TDVegas thinks ceased to exist in this market), hold on to their buys a little longer versus buy sell rapidly. Which, I am as much to blame as anyone for today's drop. I sold my extra shares of TSLA rapidly for 1 - 2 points per trade and did not hold on. Take a trader like me and multiply him by millions and you see why we aren't going up and staying up.

Can you see me now?
Move to the side a little bit so you can get a CLEAR picture
Can you see it?

C’mon man. You’re like a child in the manner you conduct yourself. You go from forum to forum starting these threads which are self serving....you trash the wofv forum on gambling forums....you say “ain’t going back”. Your suspension lifts....you’re right back here.

You need attention. No harm....but needing attention in the manner you do is for babies, not adults.

Carry on with your adventures.

If you need to hurl invectives, that's on you. You mention "suspension" -

That's a personal insult, You should be suspended plain and simple.


I post the truth. I also post images to back it up when challenged.
If you don't want to accept that,
I don't know what else I can do for you.

Quote: MDawg

If you need to hurl invectives, that's on you. You mention "suspension" -

That's a personal insult, You should be suspended plain and simple.


I post the truth. I also post images to back it up when challenged.
If you don't want to accept that,
I don't know what else I can do for you.

Why not end all the speculation and have that meeting with Mike and another member and show them your winning baccarat play and whatnot? Then we can all enjoy your posts without all the skepticism.

Quote: MDawg

Most likely, tomorrow the broader market will open green, go up a lot, sell off to a little red, and then close very very green. That would make the most sense given today's and this week's action - action that has fooled a lot of people into thinking that things are going one way or another, depending on the time and day.

Today's action, exactly as predicted by MDawg last night!

Opened green (up a lot pretty much at the height of the pre-market futures), dumped (almost to red), then closed very, very green.

Quote: TDVegas

No one is timing stock trade buys and sells in this market. Good god....not only killing the baccarat tables but also better than Warren Buffet in the market. All hail Caesar!

Whether or not you think MDawg is doing it, there are literally tens of thousands of day traders all over, who’s job is to do exactly what MDawg is posting.

Quote: unJon

Whether or not you think MDawg is doing it, there are literally tens of thousands of day traders all over, who’s job is to do exactly what MDawg is posting.

Are you talking about trading arms of corporations like Goldman Sachs or are you talking about “Johnny Basement” in his pajamas in front of his E Trade screen?

95% of “Johnny Basements” fail outright. Maybe 1-2% are able to do it effectively. Excuse me if I don’t believe or cast doubt on the self proclaimed “baccarat killer” guy screaming “me, me, me....I’m a 1-2%’er on the market”.

Believe what you want. So will I.

Quote: TDVegas

Are you talking about trading arms of corporations like Goldman Sachs or are you talking about “Johnny Basement” in his pajamas in front of his E Trade screen?

95% of “Johnny Basements” fail outright. Maybe 1-2% are able to do it effectively. Excuse me if I don’t believe or cast doubt on the self proclaimed “baccarat killer” guy screaming “me, me, me....I’m a 1-2%’er on the market”.

Believe what you want. So will I.

“No one” is what you said.

I guess I’ll chalk it up to the old adage: Hyperbole is the best thing ever!!1

Quote: TDVegas

C’mon man. You’re like a child in the manner you conduct yourself. You go from forum to forum starting these threads which are self serving....you trash the wofv forum on gambling forums....you say “ain’t going back”. Your suspension lifts....you’re right back here.

You need attention. No harm....but needing attention in the manner you do is for babies, not adults.

Carry on with your adventures.

TDVegas,
Because you have an unblemished suspension record, I'm going to restrict my action this time.
WARNING! This strayed into personal insult territory.
There are ways of critically commenting on MDawg's posts without such insults to the poster.
Describe the posts if you must. If you find them unbelievable, express that opinion. Effectively describing the poster as a baby is not acceptable.

No suspension for you this time from me, but rein it in.
Thanks.

To MDawg. Carry on with your adventures. I'm sure some of us will carry on considering them to be amusing tales.

Most Day Traders do lose money.

The main reasons are that they lack the buying power to hold the trade and average in if they get caught with the stock moving against them. When I buy 1000 TSLA at current levels I can average in as much as 9000 additional shares if necessary and HOLD indefinitely (meaning - critically - overnight and longer) without engaging any sort of margin. Typically I buy in blocks of 1000, and if necessary, average in more shares, 1000 at a time, IF needed.

Most day traders are under capitalized and playing with day trading margin and unable (or unwilling) to hold past the end of the day.

As well, many of the day traders are trading OPTIONS because they lack the funds to trade real stock. Options expire and decay in value quickly, and most options expire worthless. With the real stock, if you get stuck, you are able to ride it out indefinitely.

Another reason is that they lack the experience to jump in at the right time, and also lack the experience to average in - quickly - when needed (assuming they even have the buying power, which is the other reason articulated above for their shortfalls).

I am really more of a position trader than a day trader, in that I'll hold a position for days or weeks if I am in the money, I won't sell myself short unless I am in a volatile market such as today's. In today's market I day trade long but in a better market I'll position trade long. I've been trading stocks for many many years, same as I've been casino gambling for many many years - the traders you see still doing it after all this time, like me, as well as the high rollers you see still doing it, after all this time, like me, are the creme that has risen to the top. The dross is long gone, but replaced with new traders, new gamblers.

And as well, TDVegas' statement was that "no one is doing it." Now he is altering his statement and talking about whether or not anyone is making money at it. That is not what he said, he's just trying now to clean up an absurd statement.

In any case, whether these other day traders are making money or not they are moving the markets. These armies of punks with their Robin Hood accounts move stocks just as much as the algos. These punks (and the algos) affect me as much as anyone. I place an order to buy 1000 TSLA or 1000 AMZN at x price, and some punk (or algo) immediately jumps in front of me at my ask x price plus .01 with a much smaller (100 share) order, and then a bunch of other punks (or algos) follow suit in .01 multiples.

You've seen Dr. Zhivago? "one man desperate for a bit of fuel is pathetic; five million people desperate for a bit of fuel will destroy a city" - all these traders add up to a large part of what moves markets.

The institutions TDVegas mentions, they buy and sell in blocks, they don't really trade, certainly they don't day trade. And the average guy who has a broker doesn't want his broker churning.

Yes of course the institutions move markets when they do step in, but that's not to discount the effect of traders, which, collectively, really do move markets too.


Against this back drop of trading extra shares, I hold many stocks - long - for many many years.

Quote: OnceDear

TDVegas,
Because you have an unblemished suspension record, I'm going to restrict my action this time.
WARNING! This strayed into personal insult territory.
There are ways of critically commenting on MDawg's posts without such insults to the poster.
Describe the posts if you must. If you find them unbelievable, express that opinion. Effectively describing the poster as a baby is not acceptable.

No suspension for you this time from me, but rein it in.

Except that my first offense, an alleged personal insult that I recall was something not even directed at anyone in particular and was simply an off hand remark about the suspected value of the watches owned by some members who were accusing me falsely of posting fake watches, came after I had been a WOV member for a year or so, with an equally unblemished suspension record, and I received a one week suspension.

Personally, I don't care about what these guys say other than that I will defend the truth to the nth degree. But, if you're going to hand out justice, make it be even handed.

I slept through the whole thing, just didn't care to get up. When I did, it was immediately too late to get out for a better profit. I bought some junk called SELB yesterday, sold it and the money still isn't available in my account. Wtf with that? I placed a limit order, the stock kept rising afterward and I still can't re-invest my money. Gambling, or knowing about gambling really is some education, you know there is a lot of bs out there, like limited sample sizes, confirmation bias. I'm really interested in beating the market, it has to be possible, but I need to learn some fundamentals and the tools available. It's not like I didn't watch CNBC for years, soI'm not that ignorant. I feel like I'm going to be vulnerable to holding onto a loser and cutting a winner short. I'm up $200 plus in 3 days, guess it's better than nothing. Can I dare sleep with money in BTC? It's the only thing you can mess with late at night, I know it's gambling there. Cheap for now, likely to be burned at some point. I certainly don't want to be long term in it. I will not be day trading, cannot sit and stare at the screen all day constantly checking.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

...cannot sit and stare at the screen all day constantly checking.

You do it with WOV

Quote: onenickelmiracle

I slept through the whole thing, just didn't care to get up. When I did, it was immediately too late to get out for a better profit. I bought some junk called SELB yesterday, sold it and the money still isn't available in my account. Wtf with that? I placed a limit order, the stock kept rising afterward and I still can't re-invest my money. Gambling, or knowing about gambling really is some education, you know there is a lot of bs out there, like limited sample sizes, confirmation bias. I'm really interested in beating the market, it has to be possible, but I need to learn some fundamentals and the tools available. It's not like I didn't watch CNBC for years, soI'm not that ignorant. I feel like I'm going to be vulnerable to holding onto a loser and cutting a winner short. I'm up $200 plus in 3 days, guess it's better than nothing. Can I dare sleep with money in BTC? It's the only thing you can mess with late at night, I know it's gambling there. Cheap for now, likely to be burned at some point. I certainly don't want to be long term in it. I will not be day trading, cannot sit and stare at the screen all day constantly checking.

Stocks take three days to settle. You need to get margin approval so you can trade in the interim.

onenickel, if I follow what you wrote correctly, you bought a stock on Thursday, a day when the market declined in historically massive proportions, and sold it on Friday, a day when the market advanced in historically massive proportions. If whatever you bought Thursday didn't go up Friday, something's wrong!

As far as taking up stock trading as an occupation, as with anything, there is a learning curve and you'll probably end up losing money at least at first, and maybe always. Besides what I outlined above as far as reasons why most traders lose - lack of capital and lack of skill - over all the deck is stacked in favor of investing because of the advantage of TIME - over time most quality stocks go up, especially industry leaders. When you trade you do not have this advantage of time in your favor - when trading not only does the stock have to go up (or down, if you are shorting it), but it has to go up in the short TIME that you hold it.

Anyway, I'd recommend studying the market and making paper (imaginary) trades for a while before jumping into trading wholeheartedly. It takes years to get good at it, and most traders never get good at it.

I don't want to toot my horn too much, but I did predict accurately the night before the action for the DOW on Friday - that it would open very green, sell off greatly, but end up closing very very green. This same ability to foresee patterns is what enables me to sense when a stock is good for a long on a dip.

As well I accurately predicted Friday, after two successful TSLA trades, that the bottom would probably fall out on TSLA, and that a third trade would be problematic.

If anything, over the years I have sold myself short with my trades - sold too soon and made far less than I could, but in any case, I haven't had a losing stock trade in years, and over the years I have gone both long and short on trades, although my over all preference is long, as I remain a bull. I do believe the bull market will resume and it will be business as usual, probably sooner than most people would think.

It is quite possible to be a bull and still short a pop on a stock on a given day, and I have done that many times quite successfully, but easier, at least for me, is to buy the dips long and sell quickly for a scalping point or two.

I have definitely made far more money over the years with my long term holds than with my trades, but my holds are my holds, and the trades are extra income on top of the advances the long terms have made. The past few weeks however, my long terms are all down and my trades still march on profitably.

Quote: unJon

Stocks take three days to settle. You need to get margin approval so you can trade in the interim.

Oh I didn't realize it. On etrade, was where I was, was where the money wasn't immediately available, but on robinhood it was as immediate buying power. Maybe the reason was because I bought a junk stock(SELB), idk, it was something I feel I shouldn't have bought and was glad to get out with a profit.

FED cut its baseline interest rate range to 0 to 0.25 percent, but the market was unimpressed and so far, DOW futures are down the maximum before stops are triggered = -1045 (Nasdaq futures -360.25).

Typically when the FED takes these sorts of actions, the market jumps, but then sells off as it starts thinking - huh? why does the FED need to do this? is the economy THIS bad that it NEEDS that sort of action? Typically though these actions come on pre-determined days during market hours. No doubt Pres. T had something to do with pressing for this announcement to come today, even before futures started trading, but the combination of FED actions and his announcement today seem to have impressed the markets as much as his announcement Wednesday, which is, not much. However, there may still be hope. The market might digest this information in a different way at some point, and go up, or at least not plummet all of tomorrow.

In any case, the game plan as far as trading will be based on the action in the pre-. If the stocks I trade such as AMZN TSLA etc. are absurdly sold off before the opening bell, buying them long at the low of the pre- will be a calculated risk expecting them to pop, at least temporarily, after the open.

Another one to consider for trading is CMG - I have been trading that long and short for YEARS. As far as longer term CMG: I loaded up on it long below 300 a while back, and did not hold it quite long enough, as in not all the way to 900s, but ever since it sold off (currently around 630) it is worth a look at least as a trading stock. CMG has a relatively small float and will move savagely one way or another, so - beware!

Dawg... the ONLY intrest-rate cut that means ANYTHING is the CREDIT-CARD rate.
Absolutely noone has that on the table.

JMNSHO
Suited89

Already did one pre-market trade TSLA long 463 to 466. If was looking iffy TSLA went as low as 461. I am sure I sold myself short on that one, but a profit is a profit.

AMZN looks good at 1630, should jump at the open.

BAC is below TWENTY this is ridiculous. Been holding thousands of sh of that since its lows in 2010-2011.

Over all, we are now below the lows of Thursday.

BUYING LONG AT THE LOWS OF THE OPEN ONCE THE HALT WAS OVER WAS FABULOUS TODAY I hope some of you got a piece of that.

Trades entered into now, with the DOW recovered almost nine hundred points from its low - are much lower probability, but let's hope for the sake of our long term holds that we do continue to claw our way back up.

As mentioned, any trades after the DOW "recovery" later in the morning would be much lower probability, and in fact, the DOW did end up tanking to lower lows. I was definitely right there.

However, right now the top stocks are greenie in the AH. I think the closing prices of today of any quality stocks are oversold.

Most of the stocks I trade, except TSLA (down about a dollar), are way up in the pre-, but the numbers don't lend themselves to high probability trades yet. AMZN was up over +81 but is up about +70 now. On straight up days I usually just enjoy watching my long term holds rise. If dip opportunities arise, I then trade extra shares.

bot TSLA @ 411 went all the way down to 396. Was not looking good. I was about to average in but then it started going back up. Sold at 412, which it went higher, but not much so far.

Crazy that the DOW is down today, even after a day like yesterday.

AMZN was a hell of a buy, went from red all the way back to plus 70 just like that. I was busy with the TSLA trade didn't get a piece of that. This tells me that AMZN is one of the first stocks that will sky rocket once this coronavirus thing settles. Lot of buyers even today not willing to let AMZN go. AMZN on any dip below 1700 seems to be a screaming buy right now.

Amazon announced they are hiring 100,000 people because orders are way up.

Also TSLA is starting Model Y deliveries but people seem unimpressed. I was expecting TSLA to hit over a thousand before this coronavirus thing hit.

If you really want to think about it, SOMEthing was going to sell off this market it may have been overbought to begin with, but no one could have expected this much of a sell off. When it recovers though, it is really going to rocket. All we need is a vaccine.

In general when a stock is going up people think it will never stop, and when it is going down, people think the same - the truth is somewhere in between.

If I were to guess I'd say that at some point today the DOW will go green and stay green. This action in the red doesn't make sense.

Well, two minutes after I posted that - DOW went green! Now, to stay green....

Anyway my very long term AMZN is up today, but my long term TSLA is dragging me down some. I hold a lot more AMZN than TSLA though.

I would have loved to trade some extra AMZN today, oh well.

Okay we're solidly green now. FED announcement helped.

Still some hesitancy and selling off though.

I'm taking your advice and not even trying to day trade or anything close to it. I don't have the money to flip shares constantly and don't know enough. At night, I was just buying and selling crypto currencies and did pretty well . Maybe I'll try going to work for Amazon, the only company left in business 10 years too early. I am just holding MGM and GILD (per forum member good recommendation). MGM was a mistake, an error in my judgement imo. If i was going to buy anything in casinos, it should have been WYNN. I think I did that only because of stupid reasons whatever they were, not good decisions. I'm too much of a gambler when I am not sure of something. I think either the day I had bought, either WYNN went up less than MGM or MGM had gone down more and made a bad decision. Think I felt I could buy more shares of MGM, not even thinking this could be bad, mistakes just multiplied faster if things go sour.