Mdawgs Investments

onenickel, the stocks I trade are pretty expensive, CMG, GOOGL, NFLX, TSLA, and most especially AMZN, so that's one thing about them - to make money on trading them safely, and quickly, you need to be able to buy enough shares. Also they are, especially AMZN, very dangerous stocks in that even buying 100 shares you could be down three grand before you know it. But the rewards in trading (and buying and holding) these stocks have been great, for me, for many years.

I recall a friend of mine years ago telling me, you know, there are other stocks besides GOOG/GOOGL, NFLX and AMZN, as far as trading, but, I just like to stick with industry leaders. Anytime I have gotten stuck in a losing long position with them, the stock has always come back, and come back strong, eventually.

This rally now has legs, and is looking GOOD.

But you see how the market often tricks you. I bot TSLA at 411, it dropped to 396, and oh ****, I felt grateful to make a point. And yet now, TSLA is pushing 470.

Still, a profit's a profit, $1000.


My long term shares of AMZN and TSLA are up very nicely, and the extra grand is just icing on the cake for today. Still have a long way to go though, I'd like to see TSLA back over at least 800 and AMZN back over 2100. That will take a while, and we WILL have ups and downs before that happens.

Today was a trader's dream...and ironically, I did only the one trade today partly because I had be out and about starting at about 11am PST and couldn't be glued to a screen.

AT ALMOST ANY GIVEN MOMENT you could have gone long OR short with the major stocks I follow, and been able to book a profit. Throw a dart, get a fill, make money. Volatility and ups and downs and downs and ups, especially when they go back and forth between relatively consistent points, are a trader's friend.

Quote: MDawg

Today was a trader's dream...and ironically, I did only the one trade today partly because I had be out and about starting at about 11am PST and couldn't be glued to a screen.

AT ALMOST ANY GIVEN MOMENT you could have gone long OR short with the major stocks I follow, and been able to book a profit. Throw a dart, get a fill, make money. Volatility and ups and downs and downs and ups, especially when they go back and forth between relatively consistent points, are a trader's friend.

There is a lot of new money, they may have been caught trying to day trade without the requirements and got stuck to hold their positions to not be marked as a pattern day trader.

What I don't like about these days, especially as far as my long term holds, is how the DOW might be up a ton one day, and STILL futures go red that night threatening to give half of it back the next day.

A true bear market is marked by savage ups and downs, with the over all trend being...DOWN. And that is what we have lately. Not good.

I have not understood or learned the difference between a good idea and a bad idea. Usually in gambling patterns mean nothing, they're actually harmful or not beneficial because they're exposed to the house edge. No house edge here but not all money invested will be returned entirely. I don't like believing in things which seem like horoscopes. For something like the futures going red that night, do you have a theory and a response plan etc? I know my friend's father made a lot of money from the mid 90s to the the mid 2000s when he blew his sack of 2 million in one day less $100,000 in one day when he pulled the trigger to release his short sale. I remember him saying he was right, but the market wasn't behaving like it should and I believe he couldn't hack it anymore. He was able to build a business from credit and his sales ability pretty nicely making $400,000 profits a year. I don't think he ever made it back being successful in the markets because his old tricks weren't good anymore and he never had the same amount of money to make the big plays he used to. When he lost all but $100,000, he would have fully recovered had he held on longer, but he wanted to have some money left and not risk everything but his house. This was all happening in minute's time, was legitimate, nothing to make an excuse about. Well the point is some people make it with the right ideas until they don't know they're now wrong. He blamed me for tempting him because he made so much money and just played the big shot spending big cash in poor areas to pick up their young women, but had a modest home and a cracked up driveway. He took it upon himself to make enough money in one day to buy some Chrysler expensive sports car, and he blew it. Of course he didn't have to have such an ego, and such greed, but he did. Can't say he didn't deserve it, he cared so much about people trusting him and all he did was lie and cheat on his wife. He said he lied about women and that was it, but it was a lie. He was a big liar and a douche.

I guess because of this, I believed it was over for traders at home. Then a couple years ago there was an attractive young woman talking about how she financed her world-wide travel from stock investing. I didn't believe it, thought she used older men or sold her panties or something. The channel was Travellight, just looked it up.





I didn't believe her, guess a few years later she was raped in India, so I feel bad judging her for her appearance and manner of speaking. Think she pronounced a word weirdly with hard consonants and I despised her for it. I totally judged her, guess I didn't believe her because of her looks and youth. I didn't believe she did it entirely on her own without something being hidden.

If I understand you correctly, your friend's father went short and covered at a tremendous loss where if he had stayed in just a while longer he would have actually made money. Yes, the markets have a cruel way of doing that, turning a trade that is a loser today into a big time winner on down the line - but that gets back to what I mentioned above about how TIME is on your side when investing, but against you when trading. When you're trading you not only have to be right, you have to be right during the short time that you hold the trade.

The reason he covered is because he had unlimited loss potential with a short. With a long, a regular stock purchase, the worst that may happen is it goes to zero and you lose all the money you put into the purchase. But with a short, it could theoretically keep going up forever, and wipe you out completely, eat up all your money in your account until you're sold out involuntarily.

I know someone who shorted AMZN at around 1950 a couple months ago or so, and then of course it went way over 2000, and 2050 and he bailed and lost money, and then when he saw it get to 2150 and beyond he figured, wow am I glad I got out, but then now look at AMZN it's been below 1700 even, so if he had held on, he'd have made a lot versus losing.

Futures - I have traded these before, at night, but just lightly not for any major profit. Typically with futures I would look for nights where they were tanking and I'd buy at what looked like an overreaction low and then sell them after they started to recover. But you can't really do that right now very safely because we have nights where the stops are triggered both on the upside and the down. What I mean is, that lately we don't have as much yo yo'ing during the night up and down with futures, either they go all the way up until they reach the max up and are halted, or all the way down until they reach the max down and are halted. You gotta be right all the way in the right direction with futures these days, there isn't as much swinging that allows you to win even if the future entry point ends up moving against you at first.

Anyway, as far as good or bad ideas, I understand what you mean. All of my long term stocks are longs and I hold them long. I did not sell any of them during the past month, if anything, I bought some more starting last Thursday planning to hold long term. So, given that over all I am long, it wouldn't make sense for me to be shorting right now, I'd be betting against myself. So, as an investor, I am stuck in long positions including during this panic. But, I don't mind being stuck given that I rode through 2008, too and all my stocks today are much higher than they were in 2007, and so will they someday be much higher than they were in February 2020.

I don't know anyone personally who lost massively and quickly like you describe in the stock market, but I do have friends who used to trade FOREX who made and lost huge sums in literally minutes.

Having a ton of money doesn't mean that you know what is going to happen - for example for YEARS now George Soros has been buying puts (options) that bet that the S&P is going to collapse, and he keeps rolling those over, and buying more of them, and he's been risking hundreds of millions waiting for a collapse and losing more and more each year on his contrarian bet as the S&P has rocketed on upwards. Even what happened in the last month isn't enough to put him anywhere near the green. He's still in the red as can be on those puts.


As far as these guys (or girls) who claim to be able to teach you how to stock trade, all of them are making their money off fees (tuition) to learn from them, versus profits in trading. Trading is something like gambling - either you got it, or you don't, and it's not entirely something that may be taught. With a lot of practice you may get better at trading, but if you don't have a knack for it no amount of time spent will make up for lack of inner talent.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

I guess because of this, I believed it was over for traders at home. Then a couple years ago there was an attractive young woman talking about how she financed her world-wide travel from stock investing. I didn't believe it, thought she used older men or sold her panties or something. The channel was Travellight, just looked it up.

I didn't believe her, guess a few years later she was raped in India, so I feel bad judging her for her appearance and manner of speaking. Think she pronounced a word weirdly with hard consonants and I despised her for it. I totally judged her, guess I didn't believe her because of her looks and youth. I didn't believe she did it entirely on her own without something being hidden.

Wonderful story. *sarcasm face.

AMZN is top dog today. It's greenie today, imagine how well it will do when the market recovers.

Watch TSLA if it pushes 380ish today, it is a buy. It already hit that area once and popped. I did not trade any extra shares in it today yet. That is a magic number for a lot of people it has a lot of support there.

Disclaimer: I do hold TSLA long for years now.

I did only one trade today so far. I was gonna go in at 377.5 earlier but bailed on that idea.

I bot TSLA @ 365 which SEEMED like a no brainer, but I even had to average in at 355 just to make a point, which today I'm buying quarter share pieces instead of the full 1000 at a time. Yeah...if MDawg's buying only 250 shares of AMZN or TSLA at a time, something's wrong! This market is tanking.

Lotta work, lotta risk just to book $500. It's not usually this hard.

Of course now it's at 366 lol. If I had held on I woulda made a lot more...so maybe things aren't as bad as all that, for traders anyway.

Still, if you follow the logic, I was simply trying/trading to book five hundred quick bucks, two points 365 to 367. I ended up booking double the shares for one point, still making my five hunny. Mission accomplished, on to the next, do not look back.

The DOW has now erased all of its post Trump gains.
https://thehill.com/policy/488231-dow-erases-all-gains-under-trump

We have a nice relief rally going on today, especially in the Nasdaq stocks, but the DOW is green now too.

Of course now that AMZN is over 1900 again I am hoping it will go back to 2150 but we have a long way, and there will be ups and downs.

I did two AMZN trades, both long, 1891 to 1892, and then when it dipped in the red, 1855 to 1857.2

Actually the second sale was a mistake, I sent it in as it had already rocketed to 1858 and change which is why it filled at even above my limit to sell 1857 order. A mistake in that I saw that it was starting to shoot up and would have held that one longer, but anyway, a profit's a profit. Over three grand booked. Still, it's a little Pavlovian when I think that it's back over 1885 now, I let go of a thirty grand trade.

I went long-term (1-2 year horizon) on these WY, INN, DRH. Good luck with your pennies. I'll take a dime long-term.

Suited89

If you follow me, you know that I've been long many many shares of all of these stocks since 2006-7. I just trade additional shares daily. Not every day, but most days.

I have never owned WY, INN, DRH though. Sounds like a decent gambit.

I had an order in to buy a sh*t ton of WYNN yesterday I think it was at 35, intending to hold long term, but it never went quite that low. The day I put in the order it was at 38 in the pre- . I have owned WYNN on and off for years.

People think long term and that is the right way to think for investments, but one or two weeks depending on what happens can be an eternity in this market. And that refers not just to recent times but to most any two weeks in the market for many years now.

Quote: MDawg

I did two AMZN trades, both long, 1891 to 1892, and then when it dipped in the red, 1855 to 1857.2

Just since this thread began, 18 trades, not a single loser yet. Excellent job, keep it going.

Consistent with the baccarat session success rate.

How's your sport betting going?

It's very difficult to lose money in a volatile market if you know what you are doing. Lately you could go long or short at almost any given moment that makes sense chart wise and the stock will, at least temporarily, fill the gap up or down to give you a profit. And unlike you, I wouldn't deign to comment on things I know nothing about.

Last trade of day AMZN in 1830 out 1833.5

Of course it's much higher now (whether it will hold, who knows), left a lot on the table, but that's my usual strategy just a point, two or three and out. It's safer to do it this way to protect against the times that it pops up a tad and then drops, which is...lately...a lot of the time!

I don't actually normally trade this close to the bell, but that last AMZN sudden drop to -52 or so was too tempting.

Quote: Suited89

I went long-term (1-2 year horizon) on these WY, INN, DRH.

Entries?

We still have volatility ahead. Futures tapped out at the bottom, but are slightly better now. When one may express relief at futures being red less than the maxed out minus K, that's a problem!

Market doing better today than would have been expected, but not as well as the FED had hoped post its announcements.

NFLX is definitely outperforming the market. People must think that stay at home related companies will flourish. Makes sense.

Been holding this one since about 2010. It actually went down almost 50% within the first year I bought it, but held on and the rest is history, stock splits and all! NFLX was actually down trodden for parts of last year, but is flying high again now. Might not be a bad time to pick up some more.

Yes, entries.

My old friend AT&T has worn out its welcome. That 3600 is going all-out. About 10 years of divis, but wire-line telco is about done... someone get a fork. Probably will keep proceeds as dry powder for a while.

Recents buys nearly flat... losing on WY, gains on INN and DRH, RLJ flatish/negative.

Suited89

Quote: Suited89

Yes, entries.

My old friend AT&T has worn out its welcome. That 3600 is going all-out. About 10 years of divis, but wire-line telco is about done... someone get a fork. Probably will keep proceeds as dry powder for a while.

Recents buys nearly flat... losing on WY, gains on INN and DRH, RLJ flatish/negative.

Suited89

What percent of ATTs revenue comes from wire-line? I'm a long time owner and it seems they have done an incredible job of diversification.

Quote: Suited89

Yes, entries.

What I meant by entries, was, what were your entry points? Purchase prices. WY, INN, DRH

Quote: Suited89

My old friend AT&T has worn out its welcome. That 3600 is going all-out. About 10 years of divis, but wire-line telco is about done... someone get a fork. Probably will keep proceeds as dry powder for a while.

I bought T in the low 30s forever ago, and yes, I commiserate. Other than dividends and a period of time it popped its head above my entry point, it hasn't gone anywhere. And of course it is down now, but then so is most everything else.


WMT hit a 52 week high last week though, and NFLX as mentioned is doing very well lately especially considering the market rout.


I haven't traded anything today. I wanted to do an AAPL trade around 218 and it would have been fine, but I have been on phone holds on and off all morning dealing with travel plan cancellations (non-casino related) for April, and I haven't been following the market minutely. In general as the day winds on and what I call the elasticity of the stock diminishes (doesn't pop up as quickly at the dips) the trades become lower probability. This is why AAPL at 218 on its first drop might've been great while if it drops to 211 later this might not be a good buy at all. This is also why arbitrary price points for future purchases ("I'll buy AMZN if it hits 1600") are unwise. The time to buy is when the price is right not at arbitrary prices you think or hope the stock will fall to.

It's a little hard to explain, but in general, those few points or decimal points you try to scrape might come at a time when the bottom is falling out, versus paying a higher price when the stock still has a lot of buyers.


The behavior of the market at this moment is FOMO related - buyers are not letting it drop sooo very much, for fear of missing the real POP if some SOLID lasting good news comes in.


And AMZN is doing great at the moment, up seventy, and TSLA is somewhat green, these are helping move my over all portfolio into the greenest of greens for the day.

I can't believe BAC is now below 19. I have held THOUSANDS of shares of that for, going on ten years or so now. Below 19 - that seems oversold to me.

I can't believe BAC is now below 19. I have held THOUSANDS of shares of that for, going on ten years or so now. Below 19 - that seems oversold to me.

INN @ 3.15
DRH @ 3.55
RLJ @ 4.66
WY @ 16.95

Gettin beat on WY...showing 13.50 ish. The others are offsetting.

ATT gone at 26.75
F is going at the close today (the original buy at 7.72, the cover at 4.35 remains.

O was sold at 82.15 and OHI at 44.55 a month ago. These two were long-term holdings ( O @ 44.5 and OHI @ 24.50). They were sold to provide $$$ for what I'm doing now.

The partial sale of F and sell-out of T is $$$ for future.

If in 18 - 24 months INN,DRH, and RLJ are double, and bringing back divi, I done good. WY and F (remainder) I hope will resume divi and get 50% cap gain.

The only other stock worth mention is IRM (paper shred/recycling for business) that I'll stand pat for now, though off 30%. I might add, but not cover.

Regards
Suited89

INN @ 3.15
DRH @ 3.55
RLJ @ 4.66
WY @ 16.95

Gotchya.


On some of these others such as F and IRM you use the term "cover" does that mean you are short on some?

cover/exchange is not shorting. You buy the depressed stock first, then sell your original portion later. The 1040 says you can mark the buy and sell.

Example: I own 1000 Ford at $7. It drops to $4. I buy 1800 Ford at $4. Anytime later, I can sell the $7 Ford portion taking a loss. Once I sell ANY Ford stock, the 30 day wash-rule goes into effect. Some would say I'm stuck with the $4 Ford for that 30 days.

I know all those rules. I actually have a Series 65 license.

But the term cover is not used for what you describe.

In any case, gotchya, you are long only, no shorts.

Market closed, wasn't as bad as it could have been. Over all, in the green with AMZN especially and TSLA also helping in that regards, minus the drag down from AAPL and BAC. Rest of the stocks I own were red, but not enough to wreck the day. Anyway, total account value was GREEN for the day.

No trading today.

UP day, I tend not to trade on days like this just watch my long terms go up. Lately I am more of a buy the dip for trades on down days trader.

Another way to do it is to short the pop on a given stock, and a lot of traders have done extremely well with that lately, but for me to do that I'd have to go short against the box (of my long terms) and that seems contradictory - like betting red and black at the same time on the roulette wheel.

CMG and AMZN are going up and down though, there are trading opportunities there just have to hit it right.

Looks like NFLX is down today, at least at the moment. That is about the only long term hold of mine that is not green today.

Dawg...
I fat-fingered the DRH price its 3.45 not 3.55.
Also checked with broker (yes I use one) about wash-rule given the 29-day month in Feb and 30th day falling on Sat. He recommended any buy-backs at the close Monday to be sure the 'trading day' had cleared. So I rebought OHI 4500 @ 22.24 at close. The other news is that Ford was sold off (original shares marked) at 4.01 for a sizeable loss against the gains. Looks like I freed up 85K, and sitting on 190K cash. Still a few rounds of ammo left JIC. I should have enough to pay taxes next April ;o)

And today the market goes POP!, well today, anyway. The bear may be washing his paws.

Regards
Suited89

Took a stab at AMZN at 1911. I am down on that trade now. Entered sell at 1913.

FILLED @ 1913. $2000. booked.

It was looking pretty iffy, dropped as low as 1900 and I was going to average in but I didn't. Anyway, it worked out.

Of course it's at 1914 and higher now. And that's the way the market often tricks traders - they panic and sell at a loss (such as when I was down as much as eleven grand on this trade) when by holding on just a little longer, they could have booked their intended profit.

Quote: MDawg

FILLED @ 1913. $2000. booked.

It was looking pretty iffy, dropped as low as 1900 and I was going to average in but I didn't. Anyway, it worked out.

19 trades, 19 straight winners.

Keep it going

Like I said, when you have a comment on something you actually know something about, please feel free.

I don't have 19/19 winners. I haven't booked a losing trade in something like two years.

A couple times though I was stuck for what seemed like forever...such as when I got caught in that end of 2018 downturn. I was down more money than some people will make in a lifetime on a single AMZN trade. But I held on, and it came back on AMZN earnings date. I was actually on the ski slopes when it filled lol, in the AH. Ironically, I put in another order to buy a hundred points lower thinking it would never fill, but it did! before the lifts closed. And then I was stuck again, for some time, just like that, because it ended up dropping MORE than a hundred points even after the earnings had skyrocketed it enough in the first place to save my a** on the prior AMZN trade.
But it came back eventually.

Put it this way, given that AMZN will eventually hit 2200 (my prediction), how is it possible to book a losing long trade on it? You tell me. At worst, even if you sucked at this, which I do not, you'd still eventually make your bones.

In the meantime, how's sports betting?

Quote: MDawg

Like I said, when you have a comment on something you actually know something about, please feel free.

I don't have 19/19 winners. I haven't booked a losing trade in something like two years.

In the meantime, how's sports betting?

What was the comment I made?

It was simply a fact I stated . Since you began this thread you’ve made 19 trades with 0 losses. It’s a historic run.

No losing trades in 2 years, lifetime winner at bacc using the quit while ahead method. This level of greatness needs to be appreciated, not hated on.

Okay fine. 😎 I apologize for assuming a note of sarcasm and doubt. 🥳 I truly must have gotten the wrong impression of you a while back.

But my point is, 19/19 is NOT a historic run. Go long on industry leading stocks that tend to go up over time, and you'll always make money. If anything, I'm selling myself short - making pennies day trading when if I'd just bought more shares and kept them I'd have done better.

I do have long shares of AMZN going back a very long time, but I mean if I had just continually ADDED shares to it and KEPT them every few months versus just trading extra shares, I would have done better.

Quote: michael99000

What was the comment I made?

It was simply a fact I stated . Since you began this thread you’ve made 19 trades with 0 losses. It’s a historic run.

No losing trades in 2 years, lifetime winner at bacc using the quit while ahead method. This level of greatness needs to be appreciated, not hated on.

I’ve never seen anything like it. I’m marveling. Unprecedented.

Quote: MDawg

Okay fine. 😎 I apologize for assuming a note of sarcasm and doubt. 🥳 I truly must have gotten the wrong impression of you a while back.

.

LOL!!!

Quote: MDawg

Of course it's at 1914 and higher now. And that's the way the market often tricks traders - they panic and sell at a loss (such as when I was down as much as eleven grand on this trade) when by holding on just a little longer, they could have booked their intended profit.

Yes some people panic and sell at a loss.........others get excited and sell too early.

I generally sell too early. But not because I get excited - I set the sell price usually right after the buy is filled.

Most of the time, I look at it and realize that I left a lot on the table. But sometimes, the bottom falls out, and the trade would have ended up becoming a medium term hold if I hadn't sold quickly. I guess you could call me a scalper - I'm usually happy with a point or two.


What's "funny" as I am sure you have seen yourself, is that so often you make a point today and the bottom falls out and you are patting yourself on the back thinking, I done good! and so happy that you averted disaster. Then, next morning the stock gaps up thirty points and you realize that you would have done better to have stuck with it. Which is why, I'll admit it, longer term investing generally makes more than trading. I try to do both.

Yes you are very right. If you hold good big name stocks you will make money.