I recall when people would say things like "will never happen" about the market opening red three days in a row....
Quote: MDawgI haven't booked a losing trade in something like two years.
The most surprising thing about this is you’re admitting you lost on a trade 2 years ago.
Over and out! for now.
Of course after I sold it went all the way to something like 1919.
Interesting DOW action today it was actually pretty red for a while (sell the news? or fear that the stimulus package would not pass?). Over all I am doing well as far as long terms, green, but AMZN is the runt of the litter today.
I just looked and now the chart shows that AMZN hit as low as 1890 at some point, but that must have been on a second bottom.
The casino stocks are making major comebacks, might be worth a nibble. Vegas will reopen.
TSLA is marching back on up, that is helping my long terms a lot too.
When I was doing the AMZN trade I noticed that CMG was up something like 30, now it is barely up 1. Its range today: 600 to 684.99 that's pretty volatile! The thing about CMG is that it has a pretty small float and if you pick the wrong side it can really move against you. It's a weird stock to watch, it doesn't even show that many completed trades per given moment given the small float, but the infrequent clicks really move it.
A philosophical way to look at it would be that the market was overbought in February and I wasn't entitled to all that money. But still, just like when gambling and you were up ten grand and now you are up "only" five, and the wise thing to do is to not think about where you were, but rather where you are, still it's hard not to consider any drop from the peak as a loss.
There will be ups and downs over the next days and weeks. I wish I could say that it'll be straight back up from here, but I am sure it will not be.
Just tap me on the shoulder when AMZN is at 2200, Blue Skies will reign again!
Quote: MDawgI can't believe BAC is now below 19. I have held THOUSANDS of shares of that for, going on ten years or so now. Below 19 - that seems oversold to me.
As your attorney, I did advise buying BAC under 19.
I advise people betting the under on your BAC play.Quote: MDawgOut of the mouth of babes....
As your attorney, I did advise buying BAC under 19.
After a night of partly red futures, we're opening pretty green. Now, just to stay there! As far as individual stocks that I own, we're not quite at the highest levels of the week yet though.
Shorts are getting their shorts handed to them!
BAC PLAY. Think about that for a moment.Quote: MDawgBAC is already up over 3 points, 21.5 or so...you would have lost that bet already.
After a night of partly red futures, we're opening pretty green. Now, just to stay there! As far as individual stocks that I own, we're not quite at the highest levels of the week yet though.
Shorts are getting their shorts handed to them!
What? you say, The Dow is up 12 hunny what hesitancy?
Well, given how far it has dropped, and given that it was up only as much as a few hunny earlier after selling off, this isn't exactly the action we'd want to see to demonstrate a lasting road back to DOW 29K or anywhere close. As what's his name quoted, "You will have to do better than that!" 🤩
If today's DOW closes very very green, and tomorrow closes at least somewhat green, that will be something.
AMZN needs to get back over 2000 too. Once it does, NOW we're talking. Considering that AMZN is mostly online sales (other than say, its Whole Foods sales), I don't see why it dropped so much anyway - a knee jerk unfounded reaction, in my opinion.
Casino stocks are marching back up there today too.
I do, and the market is doing whats expected of window dressing when it usually happens.
As I said before '73-'75 (-46%) recession, this ones longer term than '08 (-56%). I mean that in the workforce 'nano economics' that flows uphill with dubious consequences for the macro economics. I do remember Nixon's 'wage-price freeze', and capitulation of not owning gold... some of my first direct economic lessons. The Oil shortage was also tossed into the mix as a hammer.
Will there be a paper shortage this time around?
Grocery stores / big-box stores look to be a common infection point.
Suited89
As far as individual stocks, some of the stocks I held dropped a LOT more at the end of 2018, and yet within just a few short months were higher than ever. A few DAYS can be an ETERNITY in this stock market, let alone a few weeks, or months. I don't think it will take nearly as long as you think, to recover. And anyway, if you thought we were in for a long, sustained drop, why did you pull the trigger on long term holds already? I would hope that the answer would be - that you may never get the absolute top, or bottom. Waiting around with your hands in your pocket for some arbitrary price point doesn't work.
Or as another has said, "You can't get rich with a weather vane."
Many bear markets 'ratchet' lower, I do believe we might be seeing this.
Suited89
Let's see how futures open Sunday afternoon.
Quote: MDawgI didn't do any trades Thursday or Friday. Just watched everything (my long terms) go up one day, down the next.
Let's see how futures open Sunday afternoon.
All I see on YT seems like giant crash coming. You never know, just seems like a lot of negativity.
Recessions don't come when everyone expects them, but when you least expect it.
Quote: MDawgUsually though, as soon as people think that something is inevitable, the market reverses course and wipes out those who thought they were betting on a sure thing.
Recessions don't come when everyone expects them, but when you least expect it.
This quarter will have almost surely show a contraction. Will take one of the more optimistic COVID scenarios to avoid a second. Whether or not that’s priced into the market already, I don’t know.
Another friend of mine, against all advice, starting buying S&P puts before the 2016 election, and constantly afterwards, dumped about a hundred grand on puts before he gave up. I kept telling him it made no sense - because before the election everyone thought she was going to win, and futures were going to go up, and the expected outcome (surprise!) if he won, which no one thought he would, was market tankage, so I wondered where the logic was in his puts since everyone expected her to win and the market to go up? In any case, he bet on market tankage and lost, big.
Also if you look at even the 1987 crash day, as the market started tanking all these people went short or bought puts. Then the market reversed furiously and the shorties bailed out at a loss. Of course by the end of the day, true tankage had ensued and settled in. Point being that almost no one made money that day, long, or short.
One historical exception I can think of was Jesse Livermore. He WAS short before the crash of '29. When he went home that night his wife had hidden all their furniture as she had received news of the crash and figured that creditors were on their way to seize all of their belongings. He had to explain to her that he had made more money that day, than he had ever made. But, over time he gave it all back and died fairly broke from suicide at a relatively young age.
I've held my long terms for so long it would not make sense to sell now. If I didn't sell in 2008, I certainly would not sell now either. I've accumulated more over the years, not sold.
Same with BTC no, I didn't sell at 20K, but then I didn't sell at 1000 either. Been accumulating and hodling since about 2010. My target on those is 50K minimum, no matter how many years it takes.
It has been choppy, this keeps happening for now. A lot of shorts on it I guess. I kind of slept through this unfortunately, maybe Bernie Sanders was going on about how they shouldn't charge anyone for this drug, he messed with the company once already. I couldn't believe how short-sided and foolish he is, to steal one or two drugs and not consider they're not going to make the next one. That's pretty much the line, they won't be able to charge too much, even before this Bernie Sanders interfering. The'll get royalties one way or another, all the effort on this one, probably ignoring their other things for the most part, I think they deserve something. Most Drs are talking about how good the drug is they think, Chinese phase 1 studies coming out in April. It's generally considered a good stock anyway I'd say in the low $70s. I'm expecting it to be in the $90s at least, we'll see. I think one of these days soon it goes up and doesn't come back down. IF the April results are terrible, like it kills people or really does nothing, yeah it will go down alright of course. Some of the analysts have said there were anecdotal stories like this, but I felt the people really didn't put the work in imo. It was used in EBOLA studies, don't think I remember seeing anything so bad, just the other company's drug was more effective so they stopped using remdesivir.Quote: MDawgLooks like GILD already tanked back to its low on Friday, any idea why?
I've held my long terms for so long it would not make sense to sell now. If I didn't sell in 2008, I certainly would not sell now either. I've accumulated more over the years, not sold.
Seems there was quite a negative article Friday morning, maybe people were scared even though it came out 10am.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334581-gileads-remdesivir-trials-are-complete-gamble
I personally feel anything close to being fine, will be approved, there will be nothing else close to ready. People aren't expecting something great, but I think they're not expecting something bad, this could cause a great loss of hope, like nothing will get better kind of hopelessness. Hopefully I won't be too sick to sell off, I'll have to put a sell order in just in case, not sure what dollar yet, $68.00 my guess right now.
But, the fact that I am even checking futures first thing on Sunday afternoon is in itself not a good sign for us bulls.
Quote: MDawgLast I checked futures are red. Could be green by morning, and the week could be great like last week.
But, the fact that I am even checking futures first thing on Sunday afternoon is in itself not a good sign for us bulls.
Feels like it'll be red. Like I have mentioned BTC has dropped a lot recently. We've seen it crash at the same time markets have crashed, it has fallen quite a lot since Friday evening, I don't know how to take it. Are people getting into cash, or are they getting out of crypto planning to re-invest in the stock market or is it just not related? I'll stay put in my position where I'm insulated and have already missed out on the easy gains by being too early to the party or because there never will be a party. Knowing my gut, probably the last. I feel pretty decent where I'm in, I'll hold LT if I'm wrong and be long.
Quote: MDawgLast I checked futures are red. Could be green by morning, and the week could be great like last week.
But, the fact that I am even checking futures first thing on Sunday afternoon is in itself not a good sign for us bulls.
I am sure it will be ketchup red
I've traded futures long before but only on nights where things crash suddenly in an overreaction. Buy long, on the big dip, it always seems to move back,
These days, these nights, movement is too savage and unpredictable. But there are tens of thousands trading them at this moment!
At the end of the Qtr. looking profitable, except IRM, and WY is a little negative. Almost ready to sit tight, just sell-off old IRM.
Suited89
I feel like this post should be 4 times longer, I'm not understanding it. Are they watching and listening right now? ;) Kind of just seems like you're in code.Quote: Suited89I purchased 4200 IRM at $23.80 at close. Will sell-off the original 3200 at $31.42 later. Yes, I like $100,000 decisions. Just less than 10 at this point ;o)
At the end of the Qtr. looking profitable, except IRM, and WY is a little negative. Almost ready to sit tight, just sell-off old IRM.
Suited89
Quote: MDawg
AMZN reports today. Get ready to rumble!
Onenickel I hope you gave up that bad habit of shorting. For the most part that has been a bad idea these past four months.
Oh Happy Day.
It's interesting looking back at some of these old posts...lol...trading TSLA at 500s in and out. I have held long term TSLA shares since 180s and AMZN since 2014 but when you consider all that work trading in and out a thousand points ago...still, apples and oranges. Trading, and long term. I do both.
I did advise holding AMZN for good once it got above 2100, and predicted TSLA's going over 1000. Did anyone follow?
But also as you know, I also trade additional shares constantly. Whatever happens this afternoon I'm not selling any long term shares.
I have some additional AMZN shares I picked up, a couple weeks ago, I may sell those in the AH today depending on what happens. I already closed out the additional shares of AMZN I picked up earlier today. I actually screwed up there I got those additional shares at 3003 and let them go far too soon.
All the days seem the same lately.
I just keep a sleepy eye on it to see how my long term shares are doing tho, or if I see some swinging action I might trade it in the AH.
Quote: MDawgAs you know, I hold long term AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL, AAPL, lots of other stocks.
But also as you know, I also trade additional shares constantly. Whatever happens this afternoon I'm not selling any long term shares.
I have some additional AMZN shares I picked up, a couple weeks ago, I may sell those in the AH today depending on what happens. I already closed out the additional shares of AMZN I picked up earlier today. I actually screwed up there I got those additional shares at 3003 and let them go far too soon.
Welcome back! I own TSLA directly, and AAPL as well. I probably own quite a bunch of GOOG and AMZN in the mtyriad of ETFs I also own.
I tried to buy and sell.... chose Ford.... bought and sold a day or two later for good gain... maybe 6%?, then it went up another 20% as soon as I sold. I just do not know how to time the market. Do you own any KODK? Quite a ride!
I've been following the KODK story lately! but no I've never owned any shares.
And you are absolutely right, "market timing" doesn't work. Looking back, all the trading I've done, I would have been better off in most all cases just buying additional shares and holding versus rapid fire trading.
However, in that I hold both long term shares, and trade additional shares without letting loose of the old time shares, I convince myself that I am enjoying the best of both worlds. It doesn't take a genius to make money trading a stock like AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL, etc. that keeps hitting new all time highs. 🏆
One thing you do need to do if you trade additional shares in the same account you hold long term of the same is set your basis for LIFO - last in, first out. Sounds like an IBM computer processor from the 1960s, but what it does is make sure that the basis for the newest shares you sell is applied against the basis of the newest shares you bought - otherwise, your long term share tax basis will be altered constantly and your long term shares will end up not considered "held" long enough to get the benefit of long term capital gains.
Typically a stock account is set for FIFO basis - first in, first out, such that if you held say 100 GOOGL (GOOG actually, GOOGL didn't exist yet in 2005 I don't think) from 2005, and then bought 100 additional shares later, and sold those additional shares the same day, the basis of what you sold would be applied against the basis of what you bought FIRST (in 2005), and the shares bought more recently would remain in your account.
So - traders - LIFO! - Or, you need to maintain two different accounts - one for long terms, one for trading.
Soopoo, do you hold all your stocks in an IRA or in a regular account? I have a friend who keeps his in some kind of IRA where even if he sells the tax owed is deferred (but - I think he has to keep all funds in there if he withdraws he must pay tax). He's actually pretty young only about 50 so he doesn't expect to withdraw anytime soon, I imagine.
Quote: MDawg
Soopoo, do you hold all your stocks in an IRA or in a regular account?
4/5 in IRA type account.
1/5 in taxable account
I do not make a trade in the taxable account without first considering the tax consequences.
1/3 of my present portfolio is in what I call the "WoV" portfolio, which I post about in its own thread periodically. It is my best performing account, with TSLA, COST, AAPL, and a few other big winners.
But with "trades" all you should be concerned with is making money. You pay tax against profit on an ongoing basis. Trades by nature are short term and taxable immediately whenever profitable, which if your trades aren't consistently profitable you shouldn't be trading anyway.
Quote: MDawgHi Wizard. Thank you!
The truth is this is the place to be.
Anybody who posts hundreds of pages on why WOV isn't a great place clearly wants to be here.
Welcome back
For those who don't follow VegasCasinoForums MDawg and I made a truce over there :)
Quote: darkozThe truth is this is the place to be.
Anybody who posts hundreds of pages on why WOV isn't a great place clearly wants to be here.
Welcome back
For those who don't follow VegasCasinoForums MDawg and I made a truce over there :)
I will sleep better tonite.
Quote: darkozThe truth is this is the place to be.
Anybody who posts hundreds of pages on why WOV isn't a great place clearly wants to be here.
Welcome back
You are exactly correct without a doubt.
The only subject I've ever posted hundreds of pages about...is me...but even there I couldn't have done it without the posting support of my fans.
The Dark/MD truce is on, which means no more cracks about buses or ketchup.
I realize it's 8mm - it's one of many pieces of "junk" I have around the maison that I must have inherited from a prior generation - but still, it's your era - "film," no?