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MDawg
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October 13th, 2024 at 9:55:35 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

DJT has become a way to bet on whether or not Trump is re-elected, because nothing short of that is going to revive this stock anytime soon. In the meantime it has been one of the great shorts of the year, assuming shares are available (usually hard to borrow on a new stock).
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Back to the mid 20s!

Trump Media stock soars after sudden reversal in election odds

Really just a meme stock though - goes up for no fundamental reason. If Trump is re-elected, then what? Will the company suddenly get more subscribers and become profitable? I doubt it.

More of an inevitable road to nowhere, I'd think. The stock is doomed, long term.
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MDawg
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October 17th, 2024 at 8:29:22 AM permalink
I coulda had NFLX at 698 yesterday on a trade, but I was too cheap (695) so I got nada.

Today, 688 was the numero, and I hit it for 5 easy points. Cha'ching! This is not an earnings play, but rather - taking advantage of earnings day volatility.

I have boatloads of long term NFLX shares that will swing one way or another after the bell. Yawn. Yawn because - been holding them so long it doesn't really matter to me any longer what happens on a given day, as the over all trend remains UP.
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MDawg
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October 18th, 2024 at 6:47:10 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I have boatloads of long term NFLX shares that will swing one way or another after the bell. Yawn. Yawn because - been holding them so long it doesn't really matter to me any longer what happens on a given day, as the over all trend remains UP.
link to original post


Still, a +65 point POP is enough to wipe a Yawn off anyone's face!

CHA'CHING!
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MDawg
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October 25th, 2024 at 8:57:14 AM permalink
Sold some trading NFLX I picked up couple days ago on a major dip, today at 766. Had the GTC in since yesterday. Major Cha'ching!

But TSLA is the big winner this week! as far as my long term shares.

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MDawg
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October 28th, 2024 at 6:30:17 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

DJT has become a way to bet on whether or not Trump is re-elected
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So if you want to bet on a Harris win, short it.

However it may be too late to buy it long in the hopes of a Trump win as it has already soared so far from its lows that some profit taking may be inevitable.

No matter who wins I’d expect the stock to sell off right after the election as large holders profit take and others follow the stampede.
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AutomaticMonkey
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October 28th, 2024 at 7:09:29 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Quote: MDawg

DJT has become a way to bet on whether or not Trump is re-elected
link to original post


So if you want to bet on a Harris win, short it.

However it may be too late to buy it long in the hopes of a Trump win as it has already soared so far from its lows that some profit taking may be inevitable.

No matter who wins I’d expect the stock to sell off right after the election as large holders profit take and others follow the stampede.
link to original post



Despite having already made life-changing money off the DJT call options, I also struggle to see what its future role will be. Four years ago I knew exactly what it would be, after the social media companies treated Trump the way they did. But Truth Social is in the Twitter format and with Elon buying Twitter and also seeming to have a pretty firm commitment to ideological freedom, who needs Truth Social to get a message out? As it stands now the only social media company still using the heavyhanded censorship along with privacy invasion is Facebook/Instagram. They have become the odd ducks in that business sector.

The only thing I can think of is that Truth Social has little to do with it, he's building a general media empire to leave to his family comparable to the Murdoch or Disney empires. Something of that magnitude would justify the price the shares are commanding now.
MDawg
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October 28th, 2024 at 7:34:32 PM permalink
It's just a meme stock. And the market has a way of taking back those types of gains from most people. Even Roaring Kitty eventually faltered and gave back quite a lot.

Did you see his joke of a YouTube presentation?

‘Roaring Kitty’ YouTube livestream fails to lift GameStop stock as shares tank by 40%
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MDawg
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October 30th, 2024 at 8:04:29 AM permalink
I have some cheapie buy orders in for today's anticipated trades, NVDA at 136, NFLX below 750, if either get that low.

I'm generally pretty cautious with trades if the given stocks I am tracking do not drop low enough that day (or rise high enough if I am doing a short or short against the box), I lose out and do nothing other than watch my long terms. This approach is part of why my trading success is about 100% - I am not like that damn broker who has to churn his client's account daily. If I see an opportunity to make money, I take part. If not, I have a lot of other business to occupy my day.
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DRich
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October 30th, 2024 at 9:27:58 AM permalink
I am happy to see that Trumps DJT stock is down about $13 today. That is about a $1.4 billion dollar loss to him. Although, I wouldn't be surprised if this drop is because he is selling a big chunk now.
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MDawg
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October 30th, 2024 at 9:36:03 AM permalink
Could be. You never know with him.

But the one reasoning is that it is due to Harris "prospects."

Trump Media Stock Drops as Musk, Harris Make Election Waves. DJT Rally Faces This Threat.

Or it could simply be due to traders locking in profits.
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MDawg
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November 1st, 2024 at 6:25:50 AM permalink
Looking for 136 or so on NVDA today to unload yesterday's trading shares at a Cha'ching profit.
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MDawg
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November 1st, 2024 at 6:58:50 AM permalink
Cha'ching!



Saved some shays for a higher unload.
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MDawg
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November 1st, 2024 at 3:03:13 PM permalink
139 in the AH for the rest of the trading shares.

Cha Cha’Ching!

Nvidia to join Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing rival chipmaker Intel
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MDawg
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November 2nd, 2024 at 7:25:59 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

Have you considered shorting DJT stock
I looked into it
I have a Schwab account
I was surprised to see that I'm currently not allowed to short any stock because you have to be approved 1st on the Schwab platform
It's kind of dangerous financially to buy puts and calls
Out of curiosity, I applied for options trading
The form asks a lot of questions regarding your history of trading, knowledge of trading, income, total liquid worth
, knowledge of options trading and how much options trading you have done on other platforms ect ect.
I'm not rich so probably won't get approved which is probably a good thing for me.
Besides. It takes 4 business days for Schwab to decide on approval and election 2 business days away
link to original post


Sometimes stocks are locked up and not available for shorting or have limited availability for shorting in their early issue days.

There is also sometimes a cost which may be ongoing to borrowing the shares I know this was the case with TSLA such that you have to do well on the short to make it worth it.

The questions you answer to get approved for options are mostly just to ensure that you have the experience and wherewithal to handle the volatility of options trading. Nothing is verified. I assume it might also be to protect the firm against liability if you get wiped out but I don’t see how a trading firm could be liable for any legitimate order you place as long as they execute it promptly and properly.

Most options expire worthless so if you regularly buy and hold any given option to the end you should over time lose money. However if you’re good at it, and there is a learning curve, and you don’t always hold the option to expiration date but often sell it sooner, there is a lot of money to be made.

I don’t trade options because I have so much money in my accounts so much buying power that I’m able to buy enough shares such that I can make decent money on only say a 1 pt move of even a thousand dollar per share company, but even people who also have a lot in their accounts say that the advantage to options is that the total loss is limited to the amount spent on the option.

With stocks going long the total potential loss is the total amount spent on the stock although in practice unless you pick a real clunker the stock is not going to 0. Shorting a stock the theoretical downside is unlimited.

There is nothing like “short fear” when a shorted stock is running against you and people caught in such movements tend to give up and buy to cover at a loss faster than traders who find themselves in losing long positions. The other day when TSLA jumped forty some points and had its best day in a decade or so something like -$3.6B was shaved off short interests shorties lost that much in that one day.
Last edited by: MDawg on Nov 2, 2024
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billryan
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November 2nd, 2024 at 8:29:12 AM permalink
There are a number of ETFs that derive most of their revenue by selling shorts. Most payout monthly, and I think they are a better place to park your money than getting involved with options. The learning curve is steep, and you are best served by using other people's money.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
MDawg
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November 2nd, 2024 at 9:41:17 AM permalink
Given the state of the stock market for decades now, the smart play is to go long. If you pick the right stocks you will make a lot, but even just picking at random, you might do well.

The shorties are right twice a day (at most), like a broken clock, but alll those other times, long is the right choice.

Just avoid the garbage, including the pennies like CYDY, but even there if you sold on the brief uptakes you could have done fine.
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billryan
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November 2nd, 2024 at 10:10:52 AM permalink
The long term looks great, but introducing massive tariffs might upset the apple cart.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
MDawg
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November 4th, 2024 at 7:44:35 AM permalink
My reasoning this morning was...NVDA hit 139+ in the AH Friday, so why not again today?

It was weak and sold off at the open, so I put in order to buy at 136, which filled (not the bottom), then immediate sell order at 137.5, which already filled too. Cha'ching!

I still think it'll hit 139 today later, but 1.5 is nothing to scoff at. It adds up!
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MDawg
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November 5th, 2024 at 6:29:23 AM permalink
I narrowly missed some trading shares of NVDA in the AH yesterday. Let's see what today brings, I can't forecast the direction of the market quite yet. Today may bring a trading opportunity, it may not.
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MDawg
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November 6th, 2024 at 6:26:45 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Sometimes stocks are locked up and not available for shorting or have limited availability for shorting in their early issue days.

There is also sometimes a cost which may be ongoing to borrowing the shares I know this was the case with TSLA such that you have to do well on the short to make it worth it.
link to original post


I noticed DJT was up as much as 10 in the AH yesterday. I toyed with shorting it today, at 45. eTrade does not allow it, not intrinsically but because borrowed shares are unavailable, but my account at Schwab will, however, as I mentioned above - as a "hard to borrow stock" there is a cost, in this case of 25.5% which comes to around twenty bucks a day for a 1000 share order @ 45.

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MDawg
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November 6th, 2024 at 6:33:07 AM permalink
TSLA up bigly on the theory that what's good for Trump is good for Elon.

My long term shares will be back to their ATHs at this rate!
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MDawg
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November 6th, 2024 at 6:36:38 AM permalink
Dollar and BTC UP , Gold down.
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DRich
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November 6th, 2024 at 4:13:11 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Dollar and BTC UP , Gold down.
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I believe BTC was an all time high today.
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AutomaticMonkey
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November 6th, 2024 at 6:20:43 PM permalink
Yes BTC broke USD 76K today. Great week for me! DOGE had an even more impressive run because that's what Elon likes, but I don't hold any of that.
MDawg
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November 7th, 2024 at 6:41:05 AM permalink
MDawg instincts were as usual right on the money with wanting to short DJT yesterday.

Anyway, I bought another watch with a few pennies of what my stocks went up yesterday. Not really actually, I haven't touched any of that money in years. But in theory that's where the money came from.

What else am I going to do with it?  🤩

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MDawg
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November 8th, 2024 at 5:59:17 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

No matter who wins I’d expect the stock to sell off right after the election as large holders profit take and others follow the stampede.
link to original post


As advertised!

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MDawg
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November 10th, 2024 at 8:56:19 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: MDawg

Penny stocks like CYDY and investing should not be mentioned in the same sentence.

Penny stocks in general are no good...unless you're the Wolf of Wall Street or one of the many other scammers who have come along over the years and figured out a way to pump and dump 'em ahead of the masses.


link to original post



Penny stocks work best with people who think they are too smart to play the lottery.
link to original post


I suppose it depends on how much is dropped...a one dollah lottery ticket a week, or even every day, versus dumping tens of thousands a year into penny stocks, even if the win rate on pennies is higher than on lottery tickets, the sums lost to them could easily exceed those blown on lottery tickets.

If you ever want to be flooded with phone calls from shysty East Coast gravelly voiced brokers operating out of Boca Raton or the equivalent, answer one of those phone surveys about investing. Once you get on that list it will be hard to get off it. Of course you could just play with them, agree to buy whatever and then "DK" them when it comes time to pay up for any loser.

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DRich
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November 10th, 2024 at 9:47:14 AM permalink
Bitcoin over $80k today. When it was at $2400 I had about $50k liquid and decided $2400 each was just too much to gamble with. Apparently I am just too smart to invest. What would I do with 20 Bitcoin today? The taxes, the taxes.
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MDawg
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November 10th, 2024 at 9:50:36 AM permalink
When clients started offering me BTC as payment, a decade or so ago, I simply accepted as payment, and hodled. I accepted no matter what the price...I think the last time anyone paid me with BTC though the price was around $30K, and it has been lower since then, but of course is much higher now.

I'll be out and selling a tidy number at $100K when it hits.
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vegas
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November 10th, 2024 at 7:47:00 PM permalink
You should only sell if you need the money. 100K will seem cheap soon.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
MDawg
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November 11th, 2024 at 4:51:13 AM permalink
Well, I have been saying I will sell at 100K for so long, that it would seem odd for me to not follow through. And it is a lot of money.

Actually I have been joking for a while with some of my friends that I will take $1M of it and try to convince a casino to let me put it all on one single Baccarat bet. As far as I know though, $500K is the max they have ever allowed.

I have special limits due to very high credit lines but I cannot bet $500K a hand. However, with enough on deposit on top of the line...who knows.
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MDawg
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November 11th, 2024 at 4:51:51 AM permalink
Market's open today, no US mail, no US courts - but stocks, Yes!
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DRich
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November 11th, 2024 at 5:52:28 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Market's open today, no US mail, no US courts - but stocks, Yes!
link to original post



That surprised me this morning when I woke up and Worldwide Exchange was on CNBC. I assumed it would be closed.
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DRich
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November 11th, 2024 at 1:25:49 PM permalink
Bitcoin at $88k now.
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MDawg
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November 11th, 2024 at 1:39:00 PM permalink
I assume some false starts along the way, but 100K is as definite as it ever was.
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DRich
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November 11th, 2024 at 3:14:57 PM permalink
Bitcoin now $89,400 up $10,000 today.
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MDawg
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November 11th, 2024 at 4:13:23 PM permalink
Reminds me of the first time it hit $20K.

At the moment you have even hospitality workers I know in Vegas posting about BTC 88K on their Instagrams. That would be the equivalent of the shoeshine boy giving stock tips I suppose.
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MDawg
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November 12th, 2024 at 6:01:55 AM permalink
Looks like we have a Santa Claus rally...early!



Yesterday even the stocks that were down like AAPL and WYNN came back pretty well from their lows.
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MDawg
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November 15th, 2024 at 1:55:03 PM permalink
The past couple days I made more money trading than I did all the rest of the week. Sure, the same stocks I traded and others I hold long term dropped, but still made money trading additional shares of a couple of the same stocks I hold long term.

Plus it's something to do, and fun.

Buying on dips is not dead!
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MDawg
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November 18th, 2024 at 6:29:12 AM permalink
I have a RobinHood brokerage account. I don't use it for much, but I store some stocks in there, and I have a little of my TSLA in there.

Last night I noticed a message on my iPhone I figured it was an old message that had been somehow delayed, about how TSLA was trading into the 330s. Turns out - at least on RobinHood you may now trade TSLA 24 hours a day! I haven't looked into this yet to see on what market that is happening, probably a third party market, but it is happening! Maybe it has been happening for longer than just this weekend, but I just noticed it last night for TSLA.
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billryan
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November 18th, 2024 at 6:39:12 AM permalink
Why would you have a Robinhood account? My impression is the platform is for newbies with under a thousand dollars to invest.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
MDawg
MDawg
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November 18th, 2024 at 6:46:03 AM permalink
That's what they said about etrade when it first came out. And DATEK and others in the mid to late 90s! Do you remember DLJ direct? I might have been a kid when those were around but they worked.

The advent of RobinHood is what moved the markets. The average RobinHood account is around $5000. from what I read, but all those $5K accounts or even $1000. add up to move mountains! I believe what really did it, is I think RobinHood allows people to own a fraction of a share of a company.

I have never used it for trading so I don't know how fast it executes, but it seems to function.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 18th, 2024 at 6:49:40 AM permalink
Actually what this makes me think about is...what if these kids who are spending all their streaming derived income on STOKE and in Vegas casinos dumping tons, started talking about stock trading. They'd probably do better and could get a following and be a better influence on the youts of today than by leading youngsters to straight gambling with no advantage.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 18th, 2024 at 6:51:16 AM permalink
Speaking of trades, NFLX 813 to 815 was the first trade of the day for me today. I didn't get the low, or the high, but two grand is two grand.

Cha'ching!
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 18th, 2024 at 7:11:29 AM permalink
Spirit having some trouble.

Spirit Airlines files for bankruptcy as financial losses pile up
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
DRich
DRich
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November 18th, 2024 at 10:58:48 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Spirit having some trouble.

Spirit Airlines files for bankruptcy as financial losses pile up
link to original post



They have been having lots of trouble since the pandemic. When their Jetblue and Frontier partnerships fizzled the writing was on the wall.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
billryan
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November 18th, 2024 at 12:54:07 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: MDawg

Spirit having some trouble.

Spirit Airlines files for bankruptcy as financial losses pile up
link to original post



They have been having lots of trouble since the pandemic. When their Jetblue and Frontier partnerships fizzled the writing was on the wall.
link to original post



It is the worst airline I have ever dealt with. I won't miss them, although I have friends who swear by them.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
tuttigym
tuttigym
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November 18th, 2024 at 1:15:18 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Speaking of trades, NFLX 813 to 815 was the first trade of the day for me today. I didn't get the low, or the high, but two grand is two grand.

Cha'ching!
link to original post


So. let me get this straight, you wagered/paid $813k to make $2k which actually nets you about $1k after short term fed and state taxes? Well, someone has to support our respective govts. Why not you?

tuttigym
MDawg
MDawg
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November 18th, 2024 at 1:26:24 PM permalink
I don’t think you really understand any of this.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
billryan
billryan
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November 18th, 2024 at 1:43:05 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: MDawg

Speaking of trades, NFLX 813 to 815 was the first trade of the day for me today. I didn't get the low, or the high, but two grand is two grand.

Cha'ching!
link to original post


So. let me get this straight, you wagered/paid $813k to make $2k which actually nets you about $1k after short term fed and state taxes? Well, someone has to support our respective govts. Why not you?

tuttigym
link to original post



Unless Netflix went to zero overnight, he wasn't wagering $813,000. He was investing.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
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