Sports betting chatter
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOMcNeil not even playing. His sub is 3 for 3 already.
DraftKings still doing the ‘up 2 you win’ promo. Cards were + 155 underdog…. just scored 2 in top of the first. Cha Ching.
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Ae you limited on the number of bets you can make on that promo? What is the betting limit?
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One a day. Alas, for me I’m maxed out at $10. EV probably around $2. I usually take the biggest road underdog. They bat first.
at the present time my theory of underdogs against same division rivals having an edge is going down the tubes
in my tracking of the 2nd 100 (for me) - they are currently 7-20 and down 843 - they're getting crushed - completely different than my first tracking of 81 games where they went 43-38 with an r.o.i. of 18%
I will keep tracking until I get 100 - maybe things will turn around
but right now it doesn't look good at all
back to the ole drawing board
.
gonna make a wimpy bet to show today on the Belmont Stakes (which is being run at Saratoga due to construction at Belmont) on the the morning line favorite - Sierra Leone
he's never finished worse than 2nd - he lost by a nose in the Derby - he always tries hard - and his connections upgraded to one of the top jocks in the country
he's a closer who comes running late
with all of the soft money who usually love the shots I believe the show prices on low odds horses will be better than average - especially since there is no possible Triple Crown winner to attract attention
there will be $ millions bet on on this one race
2014 set a record - $151 million and some change from all sources - they watched California Chrome have his Triple Crown bid spoiled by Tonalist
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
gonna make a wimpy bet to show today on the Belmont Stakes (which is being run at Saratoga due to construction at Belmont) on the the morning line favorite - Sierra Leone
he's never finished worse than 2nd - he lost by a nose in the Derby - he always tries hard - and his connections upgraded to one of the top jocks in the country
he's a closer who comes running late
with all of the soft money who usually love the shots I believe the show prices on low odds horses will be better than average - especially since there is no possible Triple Crown winner to attract attention
there will be $ millions bet on on this one race
2014 set a record - $151 million and some change from all sources - they watched California Chrome have his Triple Crown bid spoiled by Tonalist
.
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I used to follow horse racing a little. Now even less. I have a friend who now lives in Saratoga who asked me (foolish) for a tip on the Belmont. He said he was going to the race. I figured he was driving down to Belmont. (Where SOOPOO worked as a Pinkerton in 1979!). Until your post I had no idea it was being run in Saratoga. I gave him ‘Dornoch’ as my longshot pick…. because…. I golfed at Royal Dornoch in Scotland a few decades back.
No idea why, but my good +EV offers from BetMGM are vastly improved. Max bet is usually $50 now, and boosts are often 50%. And fewer restrictions, with maybe 3 a day.
All the Caitlin Clark offers hit yesterday. Seems like this will be my plan. When she’s playing a good team, bet her under. When a bad team, bet her over.
I sometimes do bridge jumper bets. Royals were down 7-0 early to Mariners. Was going to take Mariners at -5000, but jumped to -6500 so my bet wasn’t accepted. Lucky me! Royals 10-9.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
gonna make a wimpy bet to show today on the Belmont Stakes (which is being run at Saratoga due to construction at Belmont) on the the morning line favorite - Sierra Leone
he's never finished worse than 2nd - he lost by a nose in the Derby - he always tries hard - and his connections upgraded to one of the top jocks in the country
he's a closer who comes running late
with all of the soft money who usually love the shots I believe the show prices on low odds horses will be better than average - especially since there is no possible Triple Crown winner to attract attention
there will be $ millions bet on on this one race
2014 set a record - $151 million and some change from all sources - they watched California Chrome have his Triple Crown bid spoiled by Tonalist
.
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I used to follow horse racing a little. Now even less. I have a friend who now lives in Saratoga who asked me (foolish) for a tip on the Belmont. He said he was going to the race. I figured he was driving down to Belmont. (Where SOOPOO worked as a Pinkerton in 1979!). Until your post I had no idea it was being run in Saratoga. I gave him ‘Dornoch’ as my longshot pick…. because…. I golfed at Royal Dornoch in Scotland a few decades back.
No idea why, but my good +EV offers from BetMGM are vastly improved. Max bet is usually $50 now, and boosts are often 50%. And fewer restrictions, with maybe 3 a day.
All the Caitlin Clark offers hit yesterday. Seems like this will be my plan. When she’s playing a good team, bet her under. When a bad team, bet her over.
I sometimes do bridge jumper bets. Royals were down 7-0 early to Mariners. Was going to take Mariners at -5000, but jumped to -6500 so my bet wasn’t accepted. Lucky me! Royals 10-9.
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Better to be lucky than good. Your friend owes you a beer for Dornoch.
Rooster, your safety play paid off. Weird start with Sierra Leone.
Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
gonna make a wimpy bet to show today on the Belmont Stakes (which is being run at Saratoga due to construction at Belmont) on the the morning line favorite - Sierra Leone
he's never finished worse than 2nd - he lost by a nose in the Derby - he always tries hard - and his connections upgraded to one of the top jocks in the country
he's a closer who comes running late
with all of the soft money who usually love the shots I believe the show prices on low odds horses will be better than average - especially since there is no possible Triple Crown winner to attract attention
there will be $ millions bet on on this one race
2014 set a record - $151 million and some change from all sources - they watched California Chrome have his Triple Crown bid spoiled by Tonalist
.
link to original post
I used to follow horse racing a little. Now even less. I have a friend who now lives in Saratoga who asked me (foolish) for a tip on the Belmont. He said he was going to the race. I figured he was driving down to Belmont. (Where SOOPOO worked as a Pinkerton in 1979!). Until your post I had no idea it was being run in Saratoga. I gave him ‘Dornoch’ as my longshot pick…. because…. I golfed at Royal Dornoch in Scotland a few decades back.
No idea why, but my good +EV offers from BetMGM are vastly improved. Max bet is usually $50 now, and boosts are often 50%. And fewer restrictions, with maybe 3 a day.
All the Caitlin Clark offers hit yesterday. Seems like this will be my plan. When she’s playing a good team, bet her under. When a bad team, bet her over.
I sometimes do bridge jumper bets. Royals were down 7-0 early to Mariners. Was going to take Mariners at -5000, but jumped to -6500 so my bet wasn’t accepted. Lucky me! Royals 10-9.
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Better to be lucky than good. Your friend owes you a beer for Dornoch.
Rooster, your safety play paid off. Weird start with Sierra Leone.
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He admitted to me this morning he did NOT bet on Dornoch.
Said experience at track was ok, not great. Said Uber cost him more than entry ticket. Said in and out of the parking lots was over an hour. And you didn’t even get a mile and a half race….
Quote: lilredrooster.
at the present time my theory of underdogs against same division rivals having an edge is going down the tubes
in my tracking of the 2nd 100 (for me) - they are currently 7-20 and down 843 - they're getting crushed - completely different than my first tracking of 81 games where they went 43-38 with an r.o.i. of 18%
I will keep tracking until I get 100 - maybe things will turn around
but right now it doesn't look good at all
back to the ole drawing board
.
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Yeah, I noticed :-(. I've been doing the DK early win promo, and am like 2-5. I had $10 max bets for the first few, then $50 max for a couple of days, and now back to $10 🤷♂️.
when I watch thoroughbred jockeys riding a horse like this -
I try to imagine what that would do to my back - even when I was much younger and in shape - if I tried to ride a horse like that
I think after trying it I would end up in bed in tremendous pain for at least a week
the obvious answer is that they can ride like that because they weigh so little - somewhere around 110 pounds
but I don't think that's really an answer
they don't get the attention that the athletes in major sports get
but the best of them are truly great athletes
they're some very tough little dudes
.
.
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Scheffler (5-1) came through
Verstappen (slightly better than even money)
Doncic 1stFG (6-1)
Larson NASCAR (4-1)
Judge HR (3-1)
Hadwin top 5 (5-1)
Random 3 leg MLB (7-1)
Of course there were a bunch of losing bets, but overall +++
I had one 6 leg soccer parlay that I lost by 1 corner kick that was 20-1. I did hedge with 5 minutes to play so made $10 instead of $180.
STRANGE ending to Mavs/Celtics game. Celts up 7 with around 30 seconds to play. 99/100 times the Mavs would foul the Celtics player hoping for missed free throws. But they ran around and let the Celtics run out the 24 second clock. Then inbounded and let the rest of the clock run out. Had to be TERRIBLE for the bookies. It was easy to find Celtics -6.5 or Mavs +7.
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Account Locked
Finish completing your account registration by visiting the DraftKings Sportsbook at either Tulalip Resort and Casino or Quil Ceda Creek Casino. You must present a state issued ID to the Sportsbook cashier to verify your identity. Please make sure you check the Sportsbook hours of operations before visiting. Once you have completed your registration, you will then be authorized to place wagers on property at either casino.
I changed my password and waiting to sign in on my PC tomorrow, meanwhile checking email, to see if this was a glitch
Quote: odiousgambitmessage this morning after signing in to DK
>>>
Account Locked
Finish completing your account registration by visiting the DraftKings Sportsbook at either Tulalip Resort and Casino or Quil Ceda Creek Casino. You must present a state issued ID to the Sportsbook cashier to verify your identity. Please make sure you check the Sportsbook hours of operations before visiting. Once you have completed your registration, you will then be authorized to place wagers on property at either casino.
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FWIW, It isn't just you. It appears there is something going on along the lines of a "glitch" or compatibility issue, involving the DraftKings geolocation software. Possibly specific to a particular desktop browser, but I'm not yet sure about that.Quote: odiousgambitusing my smartphone, everything seems normal, I even made some bets
I changed my password and waiting to sign in on my PC tomorrow, meanwhile checking email, to see if this was a glitch
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Are you using Chrome on a PC? I got a differently worded "I'm afraid I can't do that Dave!" error notice upon trying to sign in, with a vague statement that there was some kind of unspecified problem.. After a few failed attempts to get HAL to please open the pod bay door, I shut down the browser, cleared the cache, activated a VPN to become a virtual New Yorker instead of seated in the midwest, and then got a different message on sign-in telling me I must first download & install a new geolocation script before I could be allowed to visit my money. After doing so I was able to get into the account in the usual way without changing any of my usual login stuff.
After that, I got an immediate email from our cosmic overlords at Google:
In spite of that thing about Google's disapproval of my download (and probably someone in The Silicon Empire also quietly noting deficiencies in the organization of my sock drawer) I am now once again able to wave hello at my DK money from my desk, but not to touch it - same as before. But some things about my circumstances are probably significantly different than yours.Quote: Google, a.k.a. EvilEmpire/SkynetYour file may violate Google Drive's Terms of Service
"Draftkings Sportsbook IL Player Location Check.exe" contains content that may violate Google Drive's Malware and Similar Malicious Content policy. Some features related to this file may have been restricted. If you think this is an error and would like the Trust & Safety team to review this file, request a review below.
Restricted file
Draftkings Sportsbook IL Player Location Check.exe
My official residence is in the southwest in a State where sportsbetting is allowed, but I also have other homes at other places where I spend a lot of my time, I'm at one of those other places now, and this particular account happens to be based in Illinois - where I'm not. And I use this desktop machine only to check lines & wager status & balances & suchlike from my place located in a neighboring state where betting is not yet allowed, after accepting a DK popup notice that I understand that I can only "look around" but not wager from where I'm at. Then, I make a short drive over a State border with my phone when I wanna bet something, doing it from the DK mobile app. Using the mobile app in any way has never been possible for me from here, while it works without issues.when I cross the State border to wager. But I haven't yet done that since this morning's desktop kerfluffle.
I have no similar issues with other accounts. For example, FanDuel sportsbook continues to work normally trom the same desktop & browser & physical location.
Good luck.
no emails on the matter. Nothing in the news , I don't think
Quote: odiousgambitmessage this morning after signing in to DK
>>>
Account Locked
Finish completing your account registration by visiting the DraftKings Sportsbook at either Tulalip Resort and Casino or Quil Ceda Creek Casino. You must present a state issued ID to the Sportsbook cashier to verify your identity. Please make sure you check the Sportsbook hours of operations before visiting. Once you have completed your registration, you will then be authorized to place wagers on property at either casino.
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I got on OK with my PC this morning , but DK wanted me to agree to a short list of emphasized, but not new, conditions, mostly about agreeing to not allow anyone else to use my account
I wouldn't think my account looked like it had that kind of activity.
No one else besides the two of us said anything about a glitch. Maybe not that many here have an account with DK
For sure the message I got yesterday was as weird as it gets.... go to Washington State locations and convince them there that I should be able to bet in a brick and mortar there. My account is in Virginia
In the computer age, it seems like you might get a weird pop-up message incorrectly stating the problem at anytime . Maybe this was a case of that
the favorite/longshot bias has been well documented in horse racing -
there are many academic studies of it
the takeout in the win pool averages about 16%
but if you bet on all favorites - in the long run you would lose much less than indicated by the takeout
and if you bet on all longshots you would lose much more than indicated by the takeout
but is this true for sports betting________? - I'm referring to bets on the money line - not on the spread
I dunno - but I don't think so - I've never seen a study of it - googling got me nowhere
why might it be different in sports betting than in racing______?
my best guess is that the longshots in racing are generally much longer and more easily activate the risk love instinct in humans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias#:~:text=In%20the%20long%20run%2C%20losing,was%20first%20discovered%20by%20Griffith.
.
The three legs….
Over 7.5 runs. It’s 10-5 middle of 7th inning.
Gomber under 4.5 K’s. He had 3 and has already been removed from the game.
Lopez under 6.5 K’s. He had 5 and has already been removed from the game.
Buttttt….. the game is now in a rain delay middle of the 7th inning. I’m hoping somehow if the game is shortened my bet still stands. I don’t want to try and dig through their T and C’s to find out….
Quote: SOOPOOSo I have a ‘live’ parlay going. BetRivers. $25 free bet to pay $105. I’ve won it already, even though the game isn’t over.
The three legs….
Over 7.5 runs. It’s 10-5 middle of 7th inning.
Gomber under 4.5 K’s. He had 3 and has already been removed from the game.
Lopez under 6.5 K’s. He had 5 and has already been removed from the game.
Buttttt….. the game is now in a rain delay middle of the 7th inning. I’m hoping somehow if the game is shortened my bet still stands. I don’t want to try and dig through their T and C’s to find out….
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Typical T&C would turn the game total into a push if game doesn’t complete.
I got my bet in. I’ll check back later to see if they lower the odds. (My bet is locked in).
My year long Oilers to win the cup is looking better than 3 days ago!
Had offer to bet 2025 NBA champion. Picked the Thunder. Why not!?
before, this problem went away soon, now it is persistent. I started wondering if my smartphone app was going to reject my business as well. I withdrew my money now, in the hundreds, all profit, and my Paypal accnt already has it
this shouldn't affect my relationship with DK according to the T&Cs, but when I did it with BetMGM all offers disappeared. So we'll see what happens.
Maybe I just don't trust these outfits enough to really get into this any more. If DK gets an attitude, I'll just be done with it.
Odious, if your phone ap is working and your computer not, it’s clearly not the sites ‘on to you’. It’s something either with your computer or their website.
Every now and then I have to delete an entire ap and reinstall it. It’s two minutes of wasted time, but I get over it.
Sounds like you are biting your nose to spite your face.
I’m getting way better offers on MGM and BetRivers recently, so am overall pretty happy.
I'll see if I can build it back up a little at a time. The offers don't let you bet much anyway on them these days. I'll look in to Betrivers perhaps
I would not give up on DK, since they are one of the most generous online sites for slot players. I have had very few problems using DK on a desktop. I have seen spurious 'account locked' messages a few times, but they usually go away by themselves. Did you try deleting all cookies on your desktop or simply using a different browser?Quote: odiousgambitI didn't tell DK I wanted my account deleted, I withdrew almost all my money is all
I'll see if I can build it back up a little at a time. The offers don't let you bet much anyway on them these days. I'll look in to Betrivers perhaps
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Player Location Check (PLC) is seldom a problem on a phone or mobile device. On a desktop, PLC relies on looking at your router and every other device that your Wi-Fi can see. This is the source of many problems, and the PLC seldom correctly tells you why it is failing. In my experience, PLC failure can manifest itself in nonsensical error messages including 'account locked'.
I recently upgraded my Fios router and was immediately locked out of all seventeen sites that I currently use. The complaint was that "the geolocation plugin was not found". However, the PLC was interacting with the sites as I verified by looking at the PLC log files. Obviously, the PLC was found but was just not able to verify my location.
I went directly to GeoComply with my issues and it took several days for them to troubleshoot the problem. The new router used a feature called 'DNS rebinding'. I had to log into the router and add the address range 127.0.0.1/32 to "Exceptions to DNS Rebind Protection". This solved the login problem for all seventeen sites.
I think one lesson is, don't sign up unless you can fall back on the smartphone app. I can easily believe that these issues come from the wonky geolocation that a PC has to use
DraftKings has definite +EV soccer offer. Bet on a team ‘to win’ and if game ends up in a tie you get a bonus bet equal to your loss. I’m being limited to just $5 on it though…. So probably worth $1.
Tomorrow I turn stored up EV into cash. I have a season long Oilers bet at 20-1 to win the cup. Plus some +EV bets on the Panthers too. I’ll list them all before the game tomorrow night.
Quote: SOOPOO
DraftKings has definite +EV soccer offer. Bet on a team ‘to win’ and if game ends up in a tie you get a bonus bet equal to your loss. I’m being limited to just $5 on it though…. So probably worth $1.
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clearly not as good as getting the same bonus bet 'just for losing' and I've had no luck with it
just bad luck I guess, I agree it would seem to be +EV at least slightly, or certainly wipes out the house edge. I'll keep trying
I needed a prop bet on baseball. Logan Meyers pitching for Brewers. Last 3 games 6, 4, and 5 strikeouts. Full average over last 7 games 4 strikeouts. The over under is 2.5. I can get + odds on over 3.5. So starting 3 parlays with over 2.5.
Quote: SOOPOOBetMGM has been having a soccer promotion where if your team goes up two you win immediately on a ‘to win’ bet. I’m not sure if that is enough to turn the bet to +EV! They seem to let you do it on ALL the games now! How often does a team go up 2 and then lose or tie? Maybe a percent or two….
DraftKings has definite +EV soccer offer. Bet on a team ‘to win’ and if game ends up in a tie you get a bonus bet equal to your loss. I’m being limited to just $5 on it though…. So probably worth $1.
Tomorrow I turn stored up EV into cash. I have a season long Oilers bet at 20-1 to win the cup. Plus some +EV bets on the Panthers too. I’ll list them all before the game tomorrow night.
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Quote:In the Professional competition 128 matches were analyzed with a total of 311 goals and average 2.43 ± 1.41 goals per match (Table 1). In ten matches (7.8%) there were no goals scored.
That is the average total for both teams. It is hard for me to believe this prop adds much EV for professional matches. Maybe you can find a league where there are more goals scored and comebacks actually occur with some frequency.
Quote: MentalQuote: SOOPOOBetMGM has been having a soccer promotion where if your team goes up two you win immediately on a ‘to win’ bet. I’m not sure if that is enough to turn the bet to +EV! They seem to let you do it on ALL the games now! How often does a team go up 2 and then lose or tie? Maybe a percent or two….
DraftKings has definite +EV soccer offer. Bet on a team ‘to win’ and if game ends up in a tie you get a bonus bet equal to your loss. I’m being limited to just $5 on it though…. So probably worth $1.
Tomorrow I turn stored up EV into cash. I have a season long Oilers bet at 20-1 to win the cup. Plus some +EV bets on the Panthers too. I’ll list them all before the game tomorrow night.
link to original postQuote:In the Professional competition 128 matches were analyzed with a total of 311 goals and average 2.43 ± 1.41 goals per match (Table 1). In ten matches (7.8%) there were no goals scored.
That is the average total for both teams. It is hard for me to believe this prop adds much EV for professional matches. Maybe you can find a league where there are more goals scored and comebacks actually occur with some frequency.
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Not sure what you mean by ‘professional competition’. I checked the EPL this season, and the average was around 3.25 goals per game (roughly). Way more than the 2.43 you quote. All not really relevant. What is relevant is how often a team leads by 2 and then does not win. If it’s 2% won’t change the bet to +EV. If it’s 5% it probably does. Remember, this changes a loss to a win, not a push.
The bets are limited to $5, so I’m certainly not going to work too hard to get an exact answer!
Hedging France $136 to win $40. If Poland wins I lose $161 and ‘jump off the bridge. So….
Draw. Win $119
France. Win $15
Poland. Lose $161.
May make more bets, but basically if Oilers win +450
If Panthers win +120. I’ll likely bet a tad more on the Panthers today, depending on the offers.
Another ‘bridge jumper’ bet today, I have the Tigers +4.
I’ve also included Tigers +1.5 in a few parlays. Their pitcher has been pretty good in recent starts.
The rate of scoring is certainly relevant to the value of the promo. If there is no scoring, then no team ever loses or ties a game after being ahead by two goals. Naturally, different leagues have different scoring rates.Quote: SOOPOOQuote: MentalQuote: SOOPOOBetMGM has been having a soccer promotion where if your team goes up two you win immediately on a ‘to win’ bet. I’m not sure if that is enough to turn the bet to +EV! They seem to let you do it on ALL the games now! How often does a team go up 2 and then lose or tie? Maybe a percent or two….
DraftKings has definite +EV soccer offer. Bet on a team ‘to win’ and if game ends up in a tie you get a bonus bet equal to your loss. I’m being limited to just $5 on it though…. So probably worth $1.
Tomorrow I turn stored up EV into cash. I have a season long Oilers bet at 20-1 to win the cup. Plus some +EV bets on the Panthers too. I’ll list them all before the game tomorrow night.
link to original postQuote:In the Professional competition 128 matches were analyzed with a total of 311 goals and average 2.43 ± 1.41 goals per match (Table 1). In ten matches (7.8%) there were no goals scored.
That is the average total for both teams. It is hard for me to believe this prop adds much EV for professional matches. Maybe you can find a league where there are more goals scored and comebacks actually occur with some frequency.
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Not sure what you mean by ‘professional competition’. I checked the EPL this season, and the average was around 3.25 goals per game (roughly). Way more than the 2.43 you quote. All not really relevant. What is relevant is how often a team leads by 2 and then does not win. If it’s 2% won’t change the bet to +EV. If it’s 5% it probably does. Remember, this changes a loss to a win, not a push.
The bets are limited to $5, so I’m certainly not going to work too hard to get an exact answer!
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I did a MC sim of how often a bet would win assuming that the bet pays as a win as soon as your team goes up by two goals. I assumed a random rate of scoring given by Prob/Min divided equally between the two teams. If the scoring rate is low, then the promo has little value. Once the total scoring rate gets in the range of interest, the value of the promo starts to kick in. The exact rate of scoring expected for your game matters a lot.
| Prob/Min % | Tot Goals | Win % | Loss % | Tie % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 1.80 | 34.12 | 33.48 | 32.40 |
| 2.25 | 2.03 | 35.56 | 34.58 | 29.87 |
| 2.50 | 2.25 | 36.82 | 35.34 | 27.84 |
| 2.75 | 2.47 | 37.88 | 36.10 | 26.02 |
| 3.00 | 2.70 | 38.84 | 36.66 | 24.50 |
| 3.25 | 2.93 | 39.83 | 37.10 | 23.07 |
| 3.50 | 3.16 | 40.56 | 37.57 | 21.87 |
| 3.75 | 3.38 | 41.44 | 37.79 | 20.76 |
| 4.00 | 3.60 | 42.17 | 38.10 | 19.73 |
| 4.25 | 3.83 | 43.01 | 38.25 | 18.73 |
| 4.50 | 4.05 | 43.68 | 38.42 | 17.90 |
| 4.75 | 4.28 | 44.36 | 38.50 | 17.14 |
| 5.00 | 4.50 | 45.01 | 38.60 | 16.39 |
| 5.25 | 4.72 | 45.77 | 38.57 | 15.67 |
| 5.50 | 4.95 | 46.34 | 38.62 | 15.04 |
| 5.75 | 5.17 | 46.98 | 38.65 | 14.37 |
| 6.00 | 5.40 | 47.64 | 38.54 | 13.82 |
If the teams are very unevenly matched, then the value of the promo changes quite a bit at a given rate of total goals. The promo helps underdogs more than favorites.
Parlay (2 Picks)Won FLA Panthers @ EDM Oilers
Moneyline: EDM Oilers
To score - Including Overtime: Hyman, Zach - Yes
Odds: +215 boosted to +430
Wager: $100.00
Payout: $530.00 Profit Boost
I made $450 on game 5. I lost $200 on game 4.
Two of my parlays require the Oilers to win tonight and over 3.5 or 5.5 total goals. The other requires both teams to score more than 2.5 goals.
| Prob | Goals | OWin% | PWin% | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 1.80 | 3.75 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| 2.50 | 2.25 | 3.27 | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| 3.00 | 2.70 | 2.81 | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| 3.50 | 3.15 | 2.36 | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.97 | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| 4.50 | 4.05 | 1.63 | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.33 | 0.61 | 0.46 |
| 5.50 | 4.95 | 1.11 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| 6.00 | 5.40 | 0.91 | 0.76 | 0.84 |
If your underdog is expected to score 40% of the goals, then the boost to your payoff percentage is substantially less. However, it might still be enough to make the promo +EV. Again, it depends on the scoring rates.
| Prob | Goals | OWin% | PWin% | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 1.80 | 24.20 | 0.61 | 0.03 |
| 2.50 | 2.25 | 24.98 | 1.09 | 0.04 |
| 3.00 | 2.70 | 25.33 | 1.71 | 0.07 |
| 3.50 | 3.15 | 25.42 | 2.39 | 0.09 |
| 4.00 | 3.60 | 25.35 | 3.15 | 0.12 |
| 4.50 | 4.05 | 25.20 | 3.95 | 0.16 |
| 5.00 | 4.50 | 24.99 | 4.76 | 0.19 |
| 5.50 | 4.95 | 24.76 | 5.59 | 0.23 |
| 6.00 | 5.40 | 24.44 | 6.41 | 0.26 |
If you bet on a heavy favorite that is expected to score 75% of the goals in the match, then the promo only increases your wins by an extra 1 or 2 promo wins out of every 100 normal wins. This would not come close to offsetting the vig.
| Prob | Goals | OWin% | PWin% | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 1.80 | 59.49 | 0.32 | 0.01 |
| 2.50 | 2.25 | 64.92 | 0.53 | 0.01 |
| 3.00 | 2.70 | 69.06 | 0.78 | 0.01 |
| 3.50 | 3.15 | 72.51 | 1.04 | 0.01 |
| 4.00 | 3.60 | 75.37 | 1.29 | 0.02 |
| 4.50 | 4.05 | 77.77 | 1.51 | 0.02 |
| 5.00 | 4.50 | 79.87 | 1.71 | 0.02 |
| 5.50 | 4.95 | 81.69 | 1.87 | 0.02 |
| 6.00 | 5.40 | 83.30 | 1.99 | 0.02 |
Quote: MentalBetRivers Sportsbook has been giving me a 100% profit boost every day of the Stanley Cup finals up to $100. This means I have $200-300 in boosted wagers on each of the games. These are only valid for parlays with each leg at +100 or longer. On game 6, I hit for $530 for a $230 profit. Zach Hyman really hustled to score the goal that won me the parlay.
Parlay (2 Picks)Won FLA Panthers @ EDM Oilers
Moneyline: EDM Oilers
To score - Including Overtime: Hyman, Zach - Yes
Odds: +215 boosted to +430
Wager: $100.00
Payout: $530.00 Profit Boost
I made $450 on game 5. I lost $200 on game 4.
Two of my parlays require the Oilers to win tonight and over 3.5 or 5.5 total goals. The other requires both teams to score more than 2.5 goals.
link to original post
I get nothing approaching that.
Interesting note for the over/under…. 17 previous Stanley Cup Final game7’s….. 16 had 5 or fewer goals…..
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: MentalBetRivers Sportsbook has been giving me a 100% profit boost every day of the Stanley Cup finals up to $100. This means I have $200-300 in boosted wagers on each of the games. These are only valid for parlays with each leg at +100 or longer. On game 6, I hit for $530 for a $230 profit. Zach Hyman really hustled to score the goal that won me the parlay.
Parlay (2 Picks)Won FLA Panthers @ EDM Oilers
Moneyline: EDM Oilers
To score - Including Overtime: Hyman, Zach - Yes
Odds: +215 boosted to +430
Wager: $100.00
Payout: $530.00 Profit Boost
I made $450 on game 5. I lost $200 on game 4.
Two of my parlays require the Oilers to win tonight and over 3.5 or 5.5 total goals. The other requires both teams to score more than 2.5 goals.
link to original post
I get nothing approaching that.
Interesting note for the over/under…. 17 previous Stanley Cup Final game7’s….. 16 had 5 or fewer goals…..
link to original post
I presume I earned the sports boosts by playing slots at Rivers. I never place anything but promo bets there. DK doesn't give me any promo bets that are worth my time even though I give them around $1M per month in action in their casino.
Scoring has been a little lower in the NHL playoffs versus the regular season. The average is more than 6 goals over the last seven regular seasons. Maybe Game 7 plays a little tighter.
GL tonight. I am glad I don't need a particular goal scorer tonight.
Quote: avianrandyWhat are the rules for Stanley cup if it is Tied at end of regulation? Is it sudden death or what to determine the winner 🏆?
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Yes, sudden death 5 on 5. They just keep playing 20 minute periods until someone scores.
All three of my parlays increased in value when the Oilers tied it up at 1-1 less than 7 minutes into the game. I thought Oilers/O3.5 was a favorite to pay out and both teams O3.5 was a favorite, as well. Things went slowly south for me after that. The Panthers defense did a great job.Quote: MentalBetRivers Sportsbook has been giving me a 100% profit boost every day of the Stanley Cup finals up to $100. This means I have $200-300 in boosted wagers on each of the games. These are only valid for parlays with each leg at +100 or longer. On game 6, I hit for $530 for a $230 profit. Zach Hyman really hustled to score the goal that won me the parlay.
Parlay (2 Picks)Won FLA Panthers @ EDM Oilers
Moneyline: EDM Oilers
To score - Including Overtime: Hyman, Zach - Yes
Odds: +215 boosted to +430
Wager: $100.00
Payout: $530.00 Profit Boost
I made $450 on game 5. I lost $200 on game 4.
Two of my parlays require the Oilers to win tonight and over 3.5 or 5.5 total goals. The other requires both teams to score more than 2.5 goals.
link to original post
Not that the Stanley Cup is over, I only have $250 in promo bets boosted by 50% today. The difference in value between a 50% and a 100% boost is much more than a factor of two.
Quote: MentalAll three of my parlays increased in value when the Oilers tied it up at 1-1 less than 7 minutes into the game. I thought Oilers/O3.5 was a favorite to pay out and both teams O3.5 was a favorite, as well. Things went slowly south for me after that. The Panthers defense did a great job.Quote: MentalBetRivers Sportsbook has been giving me a 100% profit boost every day of the Stanley Cup finals up to $100. This means I have $200-300 in boosted wagers on each of the games. These are only valid for parlays with each leg at +100 or longer. On game 6, I hit for $530 for a $230 profit. Zach Hyman really hustled to score the goal that won me the parlay.
Parlay (2 Picks)Won FLA Panthers @ EDM Oilers
Moneyline: EDM Oilers
To score - Including Overtime: Hyman, Zach - Yes
Odds: +215 boosted to +430
Wager: $100.00
Payout: $530.00 Profit Boost
I made $450 on game 5. I lost $200 on game 4.
Two of my parlays require the Oilers to win tonight and over 3.5 or 5.5 total goals. The other requires both teams to score more than 2.5 goals.
link to original post
Not that the Stanley Cup is over, I only have $250 in promo bets boosted by 50% today. The difference in value between a 50% and a 100% boost is much more than a factor of two.
link to original post
You bet! I generally don’t even look at the 10% boosts that DK has been offering on ‘plate appearance’ bets. I’m sure that just dents the vig, not overcomes it. 25% barely make the bets that require a parlay +EV. 50% is easily + EV, and the (rate for me!) 100% ones are easy money.
do you think a person could use AI to analyze dozens of factors in a sporting event and come up with a very accurate probability which could be translated into a very accurate betting line________?
the bettor could then compare that line to the lines offered by books and only bet on the overlays
of course the books can use AI too - but that's different - they're going to have to respond to the betting public and move the line to try and get equal $ on each side (spread bets) of the bet so that in the long run they are guaranteed to win
potential negative side to this - many others could be doing the same thing - but so many sports bettors are really just gamblers - they're just going to bet on their favorite teams or on hunches so it might fly
I am thinking it might work in very small markets such as college football or basketball games that very few have much interest in but is unlikely to work in the larger markets where huge $ are put at risk
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as far as gamblers, somebody somewhere likely thought of this before you did and is working on it
Quote: lilredrooster.
do you think a person could use AI to analyze dozens of factors in a sporting event and come up with a very accurate probability which could be translated into a very accurate betting line________?
the bettor could then compare that line to the lines offered by books and only bet on the overlays
of course the books can use AI too - but that's different - they're going to have to respond to the betting public and move the line to try and get equal $ on each side (spread bets) of the bet so that in the long run they are guaranteed to win
potential negative side to this - many others could be doing the same thing - but so many sports bettors are really just gamblers - they're just going to bet on their favorite teams or on hunches so it might fly
I am thinking it might work in very small markets such as college football or basketball games that very few have much interest in but is unlikely to work in the larger markets where huge $ are put at risk
.
link to original post
Billy Walters is widely regarded as the most successful sports bettor of all time. He has assembled a dream team of analysts and programmers. He is secretive about what he is doing, but I would be shocked if AI doesn't play a part.
Bill Benter and Alan Woods were part of another famous team that has won hundreds of millions of dollars at the track. An interesting factoid: I started out using a logit model that was promoted on a financial news program, Wall Street Week'. I bought the book the authors were touting, but I ended up going in different direction. Woods got his ideas from an academic paper titled “Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races.”
I was using a HP palm device at the racetrack more than 30 years ago. I trained my algorithm on an extensive dataset of race results. My program would not be considered AI -- more like linear regression. Linear regression will only find relationships in the data that you are looking for. AI can find relationships that you never thought to look for.
Quote:
Parlay (3 Picks)Won
Game Spread: Kecmanovic, Miomir +1.5 @ -150
Kecmanovic, Miomir - Zhizhen Zhang
Game Spread: Navone, Mariano +3.5 @ -143
Navone, Mariano - Nishikori, Kei
Moneyline: Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro @ -136
Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro - Sonego, Lorenzo
Odds: -150 boosted to +101
Wager: $50.00
Payout: $100.25 Profit Boost
Clicking into the bet details, I saw that the 2nd and 3rd legs of the parlay were voided due to postponement of the matches. My first bet won, and I still got boosted from -150 to +101.
There might be an AP angle here. I seldom get boosts on straight bets, but I got one here by randomly choosing two events that were postponed due to weather. Boosts on straight bets are worth more.
would have been able to get +800 prematch at bet365Quote: DRichSoopoo, please tell me you had Georgia to beat Portugal today. According to ESPN " biggest upset by FIFA rankings in European Championship history"
link to original post
to bet it cold would take some brass ones ... perhaps a good handicapper might say " that's sweet at +800, should be +300" ; and not be able to resist
or perhaps the oddsmaker was not wrong. In a 10 game match, maybe Georgia wins once
I'm just giving my 2 cents since I found the pregame odds somewhere [-300 for Portugal to win]
Quote: DRichSoopoo, please tell me you had Georgia to beat Portugal today. According to ESPN " biggest upset by FIFA rankings in European Championship history"
link to original post
On a golf trip, so not getting as much betting action in as usual. I did not have Georgia. But I probably had the game as a tie. I’ve been betting ‘tie’ and ‘under 2.5’ as a concept recently. Came in big for me France/Poland.
Quote: odiousgambitwould have been able to get +800 prematch at bet365Quote: DRichSoopoo, please tell me you had Georgia to beat Portugal today. According to ESPN " biggest upset by FIFA rankings in European Championship history"
link to original post
to bet it cold would take some brass ones ... perhaps a good handicapper might say " that's sweet at +800, should be +300" ; and not be able to resist
or perhaps the oddsmaker was not wrong. In a 10 game match, maybe Georgia wins once
I'm just giving my 2 cents since I found the pregame odds somewhere [-300 for Portugal to win]
link to original post
I'm shocked if it was only +800 and that was considered the biggest upset ever. I would think a team worse than 8 to 1 would have won before.
there is an excellent Grade 1 stakes race on the card at Churchill today - The Stephen Foster
First Mission the morning line fave is very strong - he's been 1st or 2nd in 7 of his 8 outings and 5 of them were graded stakes events
he has a strong rival in Skippylongstocking
both horses have great riders on top and great trainers
I haven't decided how I will bet yet - it will depend on the odds - I don't like betting on horses that are bet way down
about a year ago Churchill due to legislative action did something that no other North American track has done afaik
they went to penny breakage
this can make a huge difference in the kind of wimpy place and show bets I sometimes make
for example if a place bets is figured out to pay $3.19 (all track payouts shown are based on $2.00 bets) it would actually pay $3.19
many other tracks would pay only $3.00 if the same thing happened
19% more profit on this type of bet compared to tracks that break to the twenty cent point just because the bet was at Churchill
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but I wonder if it is still the parimutuel betting that is at the track, which is said to have a 20% HE. You can't go to what they have and check it out, you have to sign up first
Quote: odiousgambitDK has horse racing now, and they put offers out there that sound pretty good
but I wonder if it is still the parimutuel betting that is at the track, which is said to have a 20% HE. You can't go to what they have and check it out, you have to sign up first
link to original post
well, without actually knowing I would assume it almost surely is
20% or higher takeout is only on the exotic bets - not on win, place, show
I believe sports bets have a higher house edge on parlays
and takeout is not the same as house edge
if you bet $100 on an even money (before the takeout is applied) shot and the takeout is 16% it will actually pay $84.00 before breakage
the breakage is much less impactful on bets with higher odds - and as I indicated - Churchill now has penny breakage which really means no breakage
a typical ats sports bet of $100 would pay $91
not considering breakage the HE on the racing bet I indicated is 8% compared to 4.55% on a typical ats sports bet
you can make a $1.00 bet at the New York tracks (BAQ - Belmont at Aqueduct is running today) and then compare the payouts to the official payouts which are shown at equibase.com - they have that info and much other info for free
Edit - at the link Fanduel, a competitor of DK, explains horse racing odds and payouts and it is the same there as parimutuel
https://support.fanduel.com/s/article/Understanding-the-Odds-and-Payouts
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: odiousgambitDK has horse racing now, and they put offers out there that sound pretty good
but I wonder if it is still the parimutuel betting that is at the track, which is said to have a 20% HE. You can't go to what they have and check it out, you have to sign up first
link to original post
well, without actually knowing I would assume it almost surely is
20% or higher takeout is only on the exotic bets - not on win, place, show
I believe sports bets have a higher house edge on parlays
and takeout is not the same as house edge
if you bet $100 on an even money (before the takeout is applied) shot and the takeout is 16% it will actually pay $84.00 before breakage
the breakage is much less impactful on bets with higher odds - and as I indicated - Churchill now has penny breakage which really means no breakage
a typical ats sports bet of $100 would pay $91
not considering breakage the HE on the racing bet I indicated is 8% compared to 4.55% on a typical ats sports bet
you can make a $1.00 bet at the New York tracks (BAQ - Belmont at Aqueduct is running today) and then compare the payouts to the official payouts which are shown at equibase.com - they have that info and much other info for free
Edit - at the link Fanduel, a competitor of DK, explains horse racing odds and payouts and it is the same there as parimutuel
https://support.fanduel.com/s/article/Understanding-the-Odds-and-Payouts
.
link to original post
To illustrate the way parimutuel tracks operate, consider a match race between two horses where the public did not favor either. There is $100K bet on each horse. The track takes out 16% of $200K or $32K. This is the house edge and it is 16% before any boost from breakage. There are the equivalent of 50K of $2 bets and only $168K left in the pool. Thus, the track would calculate the payoff as $3.36 without breakage and would pay out $3.20 or $3.30 with breakage. A $100 bet would pay as little as $160. The actual $3.20 versus a $4 fair price is 20% actual house edge on this wager.
For most races, the effective house edge is lower because the breakage is less important. For exotics, breakage is lower but the takeout is usually higher.
