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terapined
terapined
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March 22nd, 2024 at 2:16:22 PM permalink
Number 6 Clemson dominating number 11 New Mexico
Got 10 Clemson with +2.5 points
Interesting, the much higher seed was a betting underdog
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
SOOPOO
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March 22nd, 2024 at 3:12:56 PM permalink
For those who like to root with me…. (Or against?)

5 leg parlay last leg is Duke -11.5
Got a hedge in at +12.5

4 legger last leg Purdue -26.5
Got a hedge in at +27.5

And bigger one with GCU under 132.
Got a hedge at over 130.5.

I love when I get lucky and the line has moved so it’s possible I can win both the hedge and the main bet without paying extra juice.
avianrandy
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March 22nd, 2024 at 9:48:11 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Nice to see a 13.5 point underdog beat Kentucky. that will be the only school from that state up north that I root for.
link to original post

might be an AP opportunity on hotel rooms UK paid for
SOOPOO
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March 23rd, 2024 at 7:21:54 AM permalink
Quote: avianrandy

Quote: DRich

Nice to see a 13.5 point underdog beat Kentucky. that will be the only school from that state up north that I root for.
link to original post

might be an AP opportunity on hotel rooms UK paid for
link to original post



So when the tourney was in Buffalo I had friends that would wait until after the first round and then get tickets for pennies on the dollar. Most tickets were sold in pre-packs for all the possible games. 1/2 the out of towners became far less interested in the games….
I don’t know how the hotel market works for this type of event.
SOOPOO
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March 24th, 2024 at 1:03:56 PM permalink
Huge +EV opportunity today. Alabama and Houston both to win at +150. FanDuel I think fair odds around -110 or -120. When I first tried to bet it it turned to their ‘locked’ symbol so I assumed they realized it was an error, but a minute later was able to get the bet in. I went to Caesar’s and bet would be at -131.

My big leftover parlay from last night finishes with South Florida on the money line. I’m hedging with VCU +3.5.

Already hit one with Marquette. My hedge was Colorado +4. Game ended on that number so hedge disappeared but parlay won. That’s good!
avianrandy
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March 24th, 2024 at 4:02:30 PM permalink
Guy on radio today said Utah State might give Purdue some problems. Yeah ok. Final was 106-67 or something like that Purdue lol
DRich
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March 24th, 2024 at 4:21:28 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Huge +EV opportunity today. Alabama and Houston both to win at +150. FanDuel I think fair odds around -110 or -120. When I first tried to bet it it turned to their ‘locked’ symbol so I assumed they realized it was an error, but a minute later was able to get the bet in. I went to Caesar’s and bet would be at -131.

My big leftover parlay from last night finishes with South Florida on the money line. I’m hedging with VCU +3.5.

Already hit one with Marquette. My hedge was Colorado +4. Game ended on that number so hedge disappeared but parlay won. That’s good!
link to original post



Sorry, but I will be rooting for Grand Canyon. Is Dan Majerle still their coach?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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March 24th, 2024 at 5:15:56 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Huge +EV opportunity today. Alabama and Houston both to win at +150. FanDuel I think fair odds around -110 or -120. When I first tried to bet it it turned to their ‘locked’ symbol so I assumed they realized it was an error, but a minute later was able to get the bet in. I went to Caesar’s and bet would be at -131.

My big leftover parlay from last night finishes with South Florida on the money line. I’m hedging with VCU +3.5.

Already hit one with Marquette. My hedge was Colorado +4. Game ended on that number so hedge disappeared but parlay won. That’s good!
link to original post



Sorry, but I will be rooting for Grand Canyon. Is Dan Majerle still their coach?
link to original post




Root away! He was fired while Trump was President.
SOOPOO
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March 26th, 2024 at 7:56:34 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Huge +EV opportunity today. Alabama and Houston both to win at +150. FanDuel I think fair odds around -110 or -120. When I first tried to bet it it turned to their ‘locked’ symbol so I assumed they realized it was an error, but a minute later was able to get the bet in. I went to Caesar’s and bet would be at -131.



I had to sweat it out. Bama was down late, but came back to win. Houston nearly completed an all time epic choke but won in OT. By far the worst (and what can only be described as stupidest) play was a star Houston player, their best free throw shooter, and ballhandler, who would likely be needed down the stretch, jumping out of control at an opponent taking a 3 pointer while they were leading by 7 with less than a minute to go. Fouled out. Clock stops. Three free throws. There were other dumb plays by Houston, including the coach not willing to foul when up 3 with 7 or 8 seconds to go. Who could have guessed opponent would hit a 3 pointer to send it into OT?

In interesting news, there is a bet fixing investigation into an NBA game. Someone bet $80k to win $1.1 million on a bunch of ‘under’ bets on Jontay Porter. He ‘apparently’ had an eye injury early and missed the rest of the game. The details will be interesting. I was surprised that DK would take a bet that large on these kind of props.
Are there really nearly 6 figure bets on such outcomes?
Last edited by: SOOPOO on Mar 26, 2024
lilredrooster
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March 26th, 2024 at 10:21:33 AM permalink
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Seattle vs. Fairfield UNDER 143.5

I counted Fairfield going 26-4 under that total in its last 30 games

I counted Seattle going 9-5 under that total in its last 14 games

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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March 26th, 2024 at 1:00:40 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

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Seattle vs. Fairfield UNDER 143.5

I counted Fairfield going 26-4 under that total in its last 30 games

I counted Seattle going 9-5 under that total in its last 14 games

.
link to original post



Ok!!!! I’ll make that bet with you!

Edit. Got it at under 144 on Caesars.
lilredrooster
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March 26th, 2024 at 1:55:32 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

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Seattle vs. Fairfield UNDER 143.5

I counted Fairfield going 26-4 under that total in its last 30 games

I counted Seattle going 9-5 under that total in its last 14 games

.
link to original post



Ok!!!! I’ll make that bet with you!

Edit. Got it at under 144 on Caesars.
link to original post



very, very sorry

I was looking at the women's scores for Fairfield, not the men's
the men score much more
for Seattle I was looking at the men's

my bad

I didn't specify mens or women's when I searched and the women just happened to come up for Fairfield

the link is the men's scoring for Fairfield

https://www.google.com/search?q=fairfield+ncaab+mens+scores&oq=fairfi&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l3j69i57j46i131i433i512j69i60l3.1696j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sie=t;/m/02pqkfw;3;/g/11ckvf54fz;mt;fp;1;;;

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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March 26th, 2024 at 3:52:21 PM permalink
LOL!!! No problem LilRed!
I only bet $11 to win $10.

+EV bet of the day is both Antetokounmpo and Davis to score 25 at +200. I think fair is around +140. I like it even more because it seems likely James won’t be playing. So more need for Davis to score. Giannis probably hits 25 well over 80% of the time. FanDuel.
SOOPOO
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March 26th, 2024 at 6:43:25 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

LOL!!! No problem LilRed!
I only bet $11 to win $10.

+EV bet of the day is both Antetokounmpo and Davis to score 25 at +200. I think fair is around +140. I like it even more because it seems likely James won’t be playing. So more need for Davis to score. Giannis probably hits 25 well over 80% of the time. FanDuel.
link to original post



Easy $100. Hit with around 6 minutes to go. I have another big parlay that all player props already hit…. but…. I need the over and only way I can hit that is if it goes to OT. Let’s go ‘tie’.
odiousgambit
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March 27th, 2024 at 8:42:49 AM permalink
Uh-oh. Am I the only one who sees a potential problem?

Quote:

Seven of the nation’s largest gaming companies are joining forces to create a trade group to promote responsible gaming, and for the first time ever, will share information about problem gamblers.

The seven operators — FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Penn Entertainment, Fanatics Betting & Gaming, Hard Rock Digital and bet365 — will form the Responsible Online Gaming Association, or ROGA, the group announced Wednesday.



What if they share information about who is non grata ? OH, what am I worried about, it's only problem gamblers who need to look out, they say. Right.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/largest-us-sportsbooks-join-forces-to-tackle-problem-gambling.html
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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March 27th, 2024 at 8:56:55 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Uh-oh. Am I the only one who sees a potential problem?

Quote:

Seven of the nation’s largest gaming companies are joining forces to create a trade group to promote responsible gaming, and for the first time ever, will share information about problem gamblers.

The seven operators — FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Penn Entertainment, Fanatics Betting & Gaming, Hard Rock Digital and bet365 — will form the Responsible Online Gaming Association, or ROGA, the group announced Wednesday.



What if they share information about who is non grata ? OH, what am I worried about, it's only problem gamblers who need to look out, they say. Right.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/largest-us-sportsbooks-join-forces-to-tackle-problem-gambling.html
link to original post



Good analysis, OG!
If they do something as simple as cross referencing winners I’m toast.
3 withdrawals yesterday. Two were done instantaneously. Third cleared this morning.

Can I do a Florida account as a non resident?
odiousgambit
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March 27th, 2024 at 11:02:51 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Good analysis, OG!
If they do something as simple as cross referencing winners I’m toast.
3 withdrawals yesterday. Two were done instantaneously. Third cleared this morning.

Can I do a Florida account as a non resident?
link to original post

From my experience of going into West Virginia, if they have DK you are ready to rock and roll. I could even play casino games immediately [you can't in VA where I live]. Of course the location device has to confirm where you are.

When I had going into KY on an earlier date, I got the idea I had to sign up in Kentucky separately. I'm not sure now.
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Mar 27, 2024
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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March 27th, 2024 at 3:25:58 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Can I do a Florida account as a non resident?



I think you can.

"Florida sports betting is now legal! You can now legally bet on sports in Florida with Hard Rock Bet. We’re the only place where you can bet so long as you’re within the State of Florida. It doesn’t matter whether you’re in Key West, Jacksonville, or Pensacola, sports betting in Florida is legal so long as you’re 21+ years of age, are located in the state, and have an account with Hard Rock Bet in good standing. Welcome to Florida’s sportsbook!"
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
lilredrooster
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March 28th, 2024 at 9:47:26 AM permalink
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okay - I know everybody has been waiting for this_______________:)
my 5 star pick for today - loosen up on that green stuff for this one
this time there is no goof - I looked at the men's scores

Alabama/UNC

UNDER the total of 173.5 which I'm pretty sure is the highest total set for any tournament game

Alabama has gone over that total in 4 of its last 6 games but they only scored 72 against Grand Canyon in their last game and Grand Canyon got 61 for a total of 133

UNC has gone under that total in all of its last 6 games and in 4 of its last 6 games and in 3 of its last 4 its held the opponent to scoring in the 60s

the most points scored in a UNC game in the last 6 games is 163

edit - I just counted UNC going under that total 33-3 for the entire season

2nd edit - it's a better deal if you can get a halftime total very close to 87 - I don't have an account and I can't find any halftime totals

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 28, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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March 28th, 2024 at 1:43:17 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
okay - I know everybody has been waiting for this_______________:)
my 5 star pick for today - loosen up on that green stuff for this one
this time there is no goof - I looked at the men's scores

Alabama/UNC

UNDER the total of 173.5 which I'm pretty sure is the highest total set for any tournament game

Alabama has gone over that total in 4 of its last 6 games but they only scored 72 against Grand Canyon in their last game and Grand Canyon got 61 for a total of 133

UNC has gone under that total in all of its last 6 games and in 4 of its last 6 games and in 3 of its last 4 its held the opponent to scoring in the 60s

the most points scored in a UNC game in the last 6 games is 163

edit - I just counted UNC going under that total 33-3 for the entire season

2nd edit - it's a better deal if you can get a halftime total very close to 87 - I don't have an account and I can't find any halftime totals

.
link to original post



It’s 82.5 o/u first half. Doing well or doing poorly, Alabama just runs and shoots. I have the over in my main parlay. I think UNC will run with them.
unJon
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March 28th, 2024 at 1:59:56 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
okay - I know everybody has been waiting for this_______________:)
my 5 star pick for today - loosen up on that green stuff for this one
this time there is no goof - I looked at the men's scores

Alabama/UNC

UNDER the total of 173.5 which I'm pretty sure is the highest total set for any tournament game

Alabama has gone over that total in 4 of its last 6 games but they only scored 72 against Grand Canyon in their last game and Grand Canyon got 61 for a total of 133

UNC has gone under that total in all of its last 6 games and in 4 of its last 6 games and in 3 of its last 4 its held the opponent to scoring in the 60s

the most points scored in a UNC game in the last 6 games is 163

edit - I just counted UNC going under that total 33-3 for the entire season

2nd edit - it's a better deal if you can get a halftime total very close to 87 - I don't have an account and I can't find any halftime totals

.
link to original post



It’s 82.5 o/u first half. Doing well or doing poorly, Alabama just runs and shoots. I have the over in my main parlay. I think UNC will run with them.
link to original post



I think there’s high variance in this total not captured by many books standard odds adjustment to get to the “adjusted line” totals.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
lilredrooster
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March 28th, 2024 at 4:05:26 PM permalink
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I don't think 82.5 is good
I would go with under the 173.5

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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March 29th, 2024 at 5:29:50 AM permalink
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woops

Soopoo was right and I was wrong
nice call guy
not the first time I've been wrong - won't be the last

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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March 29th, 2024 at 11:53:50 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
woops

Soopoo was right and I was wrong
nice call guy
not the first time I've been wrong - won't be the last

.
link to original post



Thanks. I felt I had around a 51% chance of being right. It was pretty close.
I was pretty bad last night. My parlays had lots of Arizona ML and UNC money line.
2 live 4 leggers though. Need Purdue under 154.5.
Second one needs Sinner to beat Medvedev

I checked. Since early February I’ve been able to make 3 separate $50 BetMGM deposits for a total of $150 in free money.
lilredrooster
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March 30th, 2024 at 8:33:00 AM permalink
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gonna make one more Under pick - I'm 1-1 on Tournament unders although the first one was pure luck as I goofed on reading the stats

Illinois/Conn UNDER 154.5

both Illinois and Conn have been under that total in all 6 of their tourney games
Conn the fave has averaged 137 in their 3 tourney games (totals)
Illinois totaled only 141 in its last tourney game
I counted Conn going 30-6 under that total for the entire season
the Conn defense is tough and they have held their last 3 opponents to scoring in the 50s
I counted counted Conn holding 30 of its 36 opponents to scoring in the 60s or 50s and one opponent only scored in the 40s
glta

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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March 30th, 2024 at 9:05:00 AM permalink
I’ll go with you, lilRed. UConn under.

Both my last legs of parlays hit. I’m on easy street.

Likely -EV, but I’ve been yapping about over in Alabama. No reason to stop now! Bama OVER.

So watching soccer. They show scores of other games in upper right corner of screen. Chelsea up 1-0. Opponent is listed as having TWO red cards. I check my sites and Chelsea ranges from -3300 to -10000. I think -3300 playing 11-9 already up a goal (halftime) is HUGELY +EV. So ‘I’m ‘bridge jumping’.

……Went to see who got the red cards…. Only one was a player so really 11-10. Still should win (I hope!) but now I understand why not -100000.

I won on Newcastle/BTTS/under corner kicks. I was watching but turned it off down 3-1 with 20 minutes to go. THREE late Newcastle goals. That was good for dinner for two at Cracker Barrell!

Edit. Burnley has tied it up!
lilredrooster
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March 30th, 2024 at 4:06:10 PM permalink
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can you believe it - Conn/Illinois have only scored 51 points total at the half

the Illinois star Shannon who averages 24 has only 2 points

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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March 30th, 2024 at 7:21:34 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
can you believe it - Conn/Illinois have only scored 51 points total at the half

the Illinois star Shannon who averages 24 has only 2 points

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link to original post



Good call lilRed. WAY under. Helps a bit but doesn’t make up for my otherwise abysmal day!

I got a free bet from someone and bet parlay UConn/Celtics to win their championships. Im liking the UConn part more than the Celtics!
lilredrooster
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March 31st, 2024 at 8:54:04 AM permalink
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I have 3 tourney picks for today

Purdue, the fave -3.5 over Tenn_____________Purdue has beaten all 3 teams they have faced in the tourney by double digits or more

I counted them this season winning every single game that they won by more than 3.5 except for one

I like NC State +7.5 over Duke__________they split this year in their ACC contests__________NC State has won 8 games in a row and they beat Duke by 5 in the ACC tourney on March 14

I'll take NC State/Duke UNDER 142.5___________in their 2 games against each other they totaled 143 in each game

I think the pressure of the tourney might effect their shooting negatively, and Duke only totaled 105 in its last game and NC State only totaled 125


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
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March 31st, 2024 at 2:19:27 PM permalink
at DK just up: bet on someone to hit a home run, StL vs Dodgers, $25, get $5 for every HR in the game in freebets [whether bet wins or loses]

Just checked and on average about 1 HR per game in 2023, so hopefully in a game like this it's more than that. Might pay to be picky on this kind of bet

In other news, got sick of Bet365's software. Constantly demanding you download the location finder on the laptop, like every 2 days. Not sure that's the best practice for the laptop. App on smartphone just quit working altogether. I didn't like some other things as well, like no acknowledgement an offer is in play when making the bet. I cashed out.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
djtehch34t
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March 31st, 2024 at 3:03:25 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Just checked and on average about 1 HR per game in 2023, so hopefully in a game like this it's more than that. Might pay to be picky on this kind of bet
link to original post

I think you might want to check that number.
odiousgambit
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March 31st, 2024 at 5:46:37 PM permalink
Quote: djtehch34t

Quote: odiousgambit

Just checked and on average about 1 HR per game in 2023, so hopefully in a game like this it's more than that. Might pay to be picky on this kind of bet
link to original post

I think you might want to check that number.
link to original post

googled: What is the average number of home runs per game in the MLB?

In 2022, teams averaged 1.07 home runs per game, which is close to a round-tripper every 31 at-bats.

>>>

I found the stat for 2023 but can't find it now. About the same. Home Runs, not runs. I thought it would be more like 2-3 per game
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
djtehch34t
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March 31st, 2024 at 10:34:23 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: djtehch34t

Quote: odiousgambit

Just checked and on average about 1 HR per game in 2023, so hopefully in a game like this it's more than that. Might pay to be picky on this kind of bet
link to original post

I think you might want to check that number.
link to original post

googled: What is the average number of home runs per game in the MLB?

In 2022, teams averaged 1.07 home runs per game, which is close to a round-tripper every 31 at-bats.

>>>

I found the stat for 2023 but can't find it now. About the same. Home Runs, not runs. I thought it would be more like 2-3 per game
link to original post

To be more explicit, per team or per game? Do you need to multiply by 2?
odiousgambit
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April 1st, 2024 at 1:50:05 AM permalink
I didn't dig any deeper than I showed you, it says per game

PS, one home run in the Cards/Dodgers game, Mookie Betts hit it

yeah, I don't know about this particular offer, it probably should be $10 or more for each HR to get excited about
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Apr 1, 2024
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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April 1st, 2024 at 5:27:13 AM permalink
There were abut 5800 home runs hit in the regular season last year in 2430 games so about 2.4 per game or 1.2 per team per game/
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
lilredrooster
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April 1st, 2024 at 8:21:21 AM permalink
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some picks for tomorrow's NIT matchup

it's on a neutral court but Utah is 2-9 away and Indi State is 13-4 away and the game is being played in Indianapolis (but not on Inst home court)

picking INST on the moneyline -142 (draftkings) -

and UNDER 78 - 115 halftime total


edit - a few hours after I posted the moneyline changed to -162 and the spread went from -2.5 to -3.5_______________the early bird gets the worm

DraftKings charges more juice on their halftime totals - 115 instead of -110

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 1, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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April 3rd, 2024 at 8:05:59 AM permalink
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NIT Championship game tomorrow night - Indiana State vs. Seton Hall

Indiana State - 166 moneyline - 2 bets

Indiana State -2.5 spread - 1 bet___________Fan Duel shows the best line right now on the fave - it's early

the game is on a neutral court but it's in Indianapolis
INST is 9-4 away and Seton Hall is 7-9 away

INST is averaging 87.3 pts. and their opponents are averaging just 75.9 points

Seton Hall is averaging 74.7 points and their opponents are averaging 71.4 points

might be pretty obvious but anyway, if a player doesn't want to make 3 bets on just 1 game he can divide his normal betting amount by 3 - as long as his normal betting amount is at least 3 times greater than the betting minimum - I believe most books have pretty low minimums

that's what I would do - so if it's a loss - I would count it as losing 1 bet instead of 3 - in terms of amount lost

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 3, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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April 5th, 2024 at 5:47:17 AM permalink
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for tomorrow's semifinal -

NC State + 9.5

Ala/UConn___________over__________160.5


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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April 5th, 2024 at 6:59:42 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

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for tomorrow's semifinal -

NC State + 9.5

Ala/UConn___________over__________160.5


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link to original post



I’m really interested in Purdue-NC St big man matchup.
Bad news for you…. I agree with you on both bets!

I think I’ll be signing up for Hard Rock Florida and might parlay those two as my $100 risk free bet.

Watched Knicks last night. They blew out Kings in fourth quarter….. after being down 20+ early. RARE game where you could actually see coaching make a difference. Early on Kings ‘blitzed’ Brunson by quick double teams. He would pass to center at top of the key but not much offense generated from there. Thibideau switched to have a more skilled player (Josh Hart) get that first pass and he continually drove to the bucket. Turned the game around. Doofus Kings coach just watched and NEVER adjusted just watching his team go from 20 up to 15 down.
lilredrooster
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April 5th, 2024 at 7:35:40 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

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for tomorrow's semifinal -

NC State + 9.5

Ala/UConn___________over__________160.5

link to original post



Bad news for you…. I agree with you on both bets!


I don't consider that to be bad news.
I'm impressed with how you get ahead by maximizing bonuses and freeplay

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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April 6th, 2024 at 5:36:21 AM permalink
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going to change one of my pics (hope that's allowed) because of a post elsewhere pointing out that the games are being played in a football stadium with a dome (State Farm Stadium - seating 64,000 - home of Arizona Cardinals) and historically the cavernous surroundings in similar courts has effected 3 point shooters negatively - see link

it's also possible that this is faulty reasoning and the lines have already been adjusted for this - maybe - anyway -

NC State's last 2 games have gone well under that total (full game) and almost all of UConn's games have gone under that full game total

so I'll stay with NC State +9.5

and I'll pick NC State/Purdue under 146.5 and Ala/UConn under 161.5

I'll also go with the 2 halftime unders - NC State/Purdue under 68.5 and Ala/Uconn under 76.5

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https://www.si.com/college/purdue/tom-brew-my-two-cents-purdue-boilermakers-shooters-getting-comfortable-quickly-in-dome

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 6, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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odiousgambit
April 6th, 2024 at 1:11:02 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
going to change one of my pics (hope that's allowed) because of a post elsewhere pointing out that the games are being played in a football stadium with a dome (State Farm Stadium - seating 64,000 - home of Arizona Cardinals) and historically the cavernous surroundings in similar courts has effected 3 point shooters negatively - see link

it's also possible that this is faulty reasoning and the lines have already been adjusted for this - maybe - anyway -

NC State's last 2 games have gone well under that total (full game) and almost all of UConn's games have gone under that full game total

so I'll stay with NC State +9.5

and I'll pick NC State/Purdue under 146.5 and Ala/UConn under 161.5

I'll also go with the 2 halftime unders - NC State/Purdue under 68.5 and Ala/Uconn under 76.5

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https://www.si.com/college/purdue/tom-brew-my-two-cents-purdue-boilermakers-shooters-getting-comfortable-quickly-in-dome

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link to original post



The books of course include the site the game is being played in their calculations. But maybe not to the extent you do! I’m already locked in on Alabama/UConn over 160.5. I kind of agree with you on Purdue under but had a + EV offer on Purdue ML/ over 146.5 so took it.

Opened Hard Rock Bet account. Very user friendly process. I have a ‘risk free $100 bet’ cooking. Plus they gave me a $25 free bet for making a simple $5 bet n NCAA. And they have boosts which are real boosts! They are boosted enough that you could guarantee a win betting on another site the other way. Variance has been on my side, as the first two hit at plus odds, and since I have no other site, there was no hedge!
DRich
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April 6th, 2024 at 1:31:21 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
going to change one of my pics (hope that's allowed) because of a post elsewhere pointing out that the games are being played in a football stadium with a dome (State Farm Stadium - seating 64,000 - home of Arizona Cardinals) and historically the cavernous surroundings in similar courts has effected 3 point shooters negatively - see link

it's also possible that this is faulty reasoning and the lines have already been adjusted for this - maybe - anyway -

NC State's last 2 games have gone well under that total (full game) and almost all of UConn's games have gone under that full game total

so I'll stay with NC State +9.5

and I'll pick NC State/Purdue under 146.5 and Ala/UConn under 161.5

I'll also go with the 2 halftime unders - NC State/Purdue under 68.5 and Ala/Uconn under 76.5

.

https://www.si.com/college/purdue/tom-brew-my-two-cents-purdue-boilermakers-shooters-getting-comfortable-quickly-in-dome

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link to original post



The books of course include the site the game is being played in their calculations. But maybe not to the extent you do! I’m already locked in on Alabama/UConn over 160.5. I kind of agree with you on Purdue under but had a + EV offer on Purdue ML/ over 146.5 so took it.

Opened Hard Rock Bet account. Very user friendly process. I have a ‘risk free $100 bet’ cooking. Plus they gave me a $25 free bet for making a simple $5 bet n NCAA. And they have boosts which are real boosts! They are boosted enough that you could guarantee a win betting on another site the other way. Variance has been on my side, as the first two hit at plus odds, and since I have no other site, there was no hedge!
link to original post



Hard Rock has a boost for Purdue and over 147. Normally about +125 but offering +175
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
lilredrooster
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April 6th, 2024 at 2:09:11 PM permalink
Quote: DRich


Hard Rock has a boost for Purdue and over 147. Normally about +125 but offering +175


wow - +125 seems really generous but +175 is off the charts

do they think the under will win and they're trying to attract over bettors_________?

I dunno - it looks like it - but maybe not - not really sure

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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April 6th, 2024 at 3:20:39 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
going to change one of my pics (hope that's allowed) because of a post elsewhere pointing out that the games are being played in a football stadium with a dome (State Farm Stadium - seating 64,000 - home of Arizona Cardinals) and historically the cavernous surroundings in similar courts has effected 3 point shooters negatively - see link

it's also possible that this is faulty reasoning and the lines have already been adjusted for this - maybe - anyway -

NC State's last 2 games have gone well under that total (full game) and almost all of UConn's games have gone under that full game total

so I'll stay with NC State +9.5

and I'll pick NC State/Purdue under 146.5 and Ala/UConn under 161.5

I'll also go with the 2 halftime unders - NC State/Purdue under 68.5 and Ala/Uconn under 76.5

.

https://www.si.com/college/purdue/tom-brew-my-two-cents-purdue-boilermakers-shooters-getting-comfortable-quickly-in-dome

.
link to original post



The books of course include the site the game is being played in their calculations. But maybe not to the extent you do! I’m already locked in on Alabama/UConn over 160.5. I kind of agree with you on Purdue under but had a + EV offer on Purdue ML/ over 146.5 so took it.

Opened Hard Rock Bet account. Very user friendly process. I have a ‘risk free $100 bet’ cooking. Plus they gave me a $25 free bet for making a simple $5 bet n NCAA. And they have boosts which are real boosts! They are boosted enough that you could guarantee a win betting on another site the other way. Variance has been on my side, as the first two hit at plus odds, and since I have no other site, there was no hedge!
link to original post



Hard Rock has a boost for Purdue and over 147. Normally about +125 but offering +175
link to original post



It’s Purdue and over 146.5. Not over 147. It’s the +EV bet I mentioned. No juice fair is probably around +150 to +155.

I like the Edey kid. I’m amongst the few that think he will be an ok pro.
lilredrooster
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April 6th, 2024 at 4:04:54 PM permalink
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covers.com shows both 146.5 or 147 for several different books and they're all priced close to -110 for either over or under

click line movement and then total to see that

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https://www.covers.com/sports/ncaab/matchups

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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April 6th, 2024 at 4:22:41 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
covers.com shows both 146.5 or 147 for several different books and they're all priced close to -110 for either over or under

click line movement and then total to see that

.
https://www.covers.com/sports/ncaab/matchups

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link to original post



It doesn’t matter what ‘covers’ shows. The offer was a specific boost. I’ve mentioned it exactly. Over 146.5. Perdue to win. Parlayed.
DRich
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April 6th, 2024 at 4:24:55 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
covers.com shows both 146.5 or 147 for several different books and they're all priced close to -110 for either over or under

click line movement and then total to see that

.
https://www.covers.com/sports/ncaab/matchups

.
link to original post



It doesn’t matter what ‘covers’ shows. The offer was a specific boost. I’ve mentioned it exactly. Over 146.5. Perdue to win. Parlayed.
link to original post



I bet it too. the game is definitely on an under pace. Maybe we will get double overtime.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
lilredrooster
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April 6th, 2024 at 4:37:12 PM permalink
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these super long timeouts with 6 or 7 commercials are just terrible

I won't say they're ruining the enjoyment of watching the game

but they're coming close

I didn't realize you guys were referring to a parlay - my bad -

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 6, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
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April 7th, 2024 at 6:51:13 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

since I have no other site, there was no hedge!
link to original post

ummmm, is there a story here?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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