The never-ending horse thread
October 19th, 2017 at 6:58:35 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleBecause the horses are a bunch of 5K and 10K claimers with no form. Whichever horse is feeling good that day is going to get to the rail and win.
I've stopped most betting at Mountaineer/Charlestown because of this. You have no frickin idea what's going to happen in a $5k claiming race... plus I find that they have a very high proportion of sharks. Especially on weekdays, like 2/3 of the action comes in after all of the horses get loaded. Similar to Australia & UK races.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
October 19th, 2017 at 9:00:36 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterI'm curious as to what is the opinion of you guys about getting an edge based on track bias.
Many years ago, I can't exactly remember when, many racing scribes were advocating it as a great tool.
You almost never hear anybody talking about it any more. Of course, it doesn't exist on synthetic surfaces but that doesn't explain it away.
Do you think that better groundskeeping reduced the opportunities available?
Or do you think that it was vastly overrated as a strategy and people came to realize that?
Or do you think there is a different reason you almost never hear about it any more?
What is your opinion?
track bias is alive and well and in effect every day on every type of surface....if you are not using it in your handicapping, you're missing out.
get second you pig
October 19th, 2017 at 9:05:42 PM
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Quote: ontariodealertrack bias is alive and well and in effect every day on every type of surface....if you are not using it in your handicapping, you're missing out.
Can you define "track bias" as you understand it?
tia
October 19th, 2017 at 10:50:38 PM
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I don't bet horses anymore. Is anyone surprised by that? I truthfully do not like the experience being at the track, with everything visual, needing a program, no information audibly. If I was home, maybe I'd get if I felt one way or another watching tvg. I don't watch anymore or record any shows.
I am a robot.
October 19th, 2017 at 10:59:20 PM
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Quote: KeeneoneCan you define "track bias" as you understand it?
tia
some days the inside is good....other days the inside horses have no chance.
some days (lots lately) speed dominates and you got to be close....other times its all closers.
quite often after weather events the bias changes quickly and dramatically.
get second you pig
October 20th, 2017 at 2:17:17 AM
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Quote: ontariodealertrack bias is alive and well and in effect every day on every type of surface....
you're saying track bias even occurs on synthetic surfaces?
please explain
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 20, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 20th, 2017 at 2:41:43 AM
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as far as sprinters go there is a buzz developing about Imperial Hint who recently did 107.55 for 6 at Parx. some are saying he could challenge Drefong at the Breeders Cup Sprint. he hasn't been in a Grade 1 which means that the class lovers will likely lay off him a little bit and let him go off at better odds. he's never run on the left coast, his last 4 races are at Parx, Gulfstream and Laurel. I think Del Mar is has a much faster surface than these east coast tracks. it will be interesting.
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9534235®istry=T
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9534235®istry=T
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 20, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 22nd, 2017 at 11:32:43 PM
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Quote: lilredroosteryou're saying track bias even occurs on synthetic surfaces?
please explain
weather and the grading of the track can cause changes.
get second you pig
October 23rd, 2017 at 3:58:09 AM
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Quote: lilredroosteras far as sprinters go there is a buzz developing about Imperial Hint who recently did 107.55 for 6 at Parx. some are saying he could challenge Drefong at the Breeders Cup Sprint. he hasn't been in a Grade 1 which means that the class lovers will likely lay off him a little bit and let him go off at better odds. he's never run on the left coast, his last 4 races are at Parx, Gulfstream and Laurel. I think Del Mar is has a much faster surface than these east coast tracks. it will be interesting.
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9534235®istry=T
Did he do anything close to the Parx race at GP or LRL? I don't trust Parx at all.
October 23rd, 2017 at 4:25:57 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleDid he do anything close to the Parx race at GP or LRL? I don't trust Parx at all.
that's a good point. I don't like Parx either. he hasn't come close to that in any other of his 6 furlong races including another one at Parx.
but he did do 7 at Laurel in 121.2 which was .25 off the track record.
you might want to watch the video of the Parx race. he was under wraps almost the entire race. to me, it was very impressive.
if you do watch it let me know what you think. this is the video of his fast race at Laurel I mentioned above. Please comment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqaHsBns9xM
note: I'm guessing Roy H will also be at the Breeders Cup Sprint and he's a monster maybe equal or close to Drefong. so this horse might not be bet way down.
I always pick one race at the Breeders Cup to plunge on.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 24th, 2017 at 8:24:30 PM
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I watched the Laurel and Gulfstream races. I liked the GP one because he was definitely not afraid of the rail. The sprint is really all about racing luck.
He looked washed out at Laurel, but still won. Just weird to see.
I think his odds will be good. He might be a decent contest pick for me.
He looked washed out at Laurel, but still won. Just weird to see.
I think his odds will be good. He might be a decent contest pick for me.
October 24th, 2017 at 8:29:42 PM
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I know everyone hates bad beat stories, but I'm just in a bad mood.
I played the late P3 at Hoosier Harness tonight. (I'm going there this weekend for the Breeders' Crown). The first leg had a lock at 1-5. So I singled him, and played all but the horses with no shots in legs 2 and 3. The ticket cost $24.
So in leg 2, a 23-1 shot wins. I have him on my ticket. Now I'm alive to 8 horses in the last leg. But wait! My horse is taken down for the 3-2 favorite because of causing interference halfway through the race. This "interference" goes on in just about every harness race you see.
So in leg 3, the 12-1 morning line bet down to 5-1 wins. I win $37.50 for my $24. How much would I have won with the 23-1 shot in leg 2? He probably plays more like a 15-1 shot maybe? That's $375 then? Bleck.
Ok, I'm done complaining. Time for me to start working on Breeders' Crown & Cup.
I played the late P3 at Hoosier Harness tonight. (I'm going there this weekend for the Breeders' Crown). The first leg had a lock at 1-5. So I singled him, and played all but the horses with no shots in legs 2 and 3. The ticket cost $24.
So in leg 2, a 23-1 shot wins. I have him on my ticket. Now I'm alive to 8 horses in the last leg. But wait! My horse is taken down for the 3-2 favorite because of causing interference halfway through the race. This "interference" goes on in just about every harness race you see.
So in leg 3, the 12-1 morning line bet down to 5-1 wins. I win $37.50 for my $24. How much would I have won with the 23-1 shot in leg 2? He probably plays more like a 15-1 shot maybe? That's $375 then? Bleck.
Ok, I'm done complaining. Time for me to start working on Breeders' Crown & Cup.
October 25th, 2017 at 2:22:00 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleI know everyone hates bad beat stories,
I had a really bad beat once, not in horses but in bball. I was new to betting sports maybe 20 years ago. I was losing so I decided to plunge, hopefully get one win and get my money out and paper bet for a year before I got back in. I bet big on the Knicks going under for the first half in a playoff game. I was winning my bet - the total was 2 points under when with one second left in the half Mark Jackson threw in a 3 pointer from beyond half court, maybe a 65 footer. At the time I had been winning for years as an AP at blackjack and I thought beating sports was going to be easy. I learned my lesson. It ain't easy.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 25th, 2017 at 4:06:42 AM
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The problem with sports betting is the spread/total. The team's goal is to win the game, it's not to win the game by a certain amount of points.
So I like sports betting on moneylines. Betting the under is okay sometimes too.
So I like sports betting on moneylines. Betting the under is okay sometimes too.
October 29th, 2017 at 1:20:22 AM
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here are the Breeders Cup pre-entries for all the races from Brisnet.
http://www.brisnet.com/content/2017/10/breeders-cup-2017-pre-entries/
http://www.brisnet.com/content/2017/10/breeders-cup-2017-pre-entries/
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 29, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 29th, 2017 at 5:50:02 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterhere are the Breeders Cup pre-entries for all the races from Brisnet.
http://www.brisnet.com/content/2017/10/breeders-cup-2017-pre-entries/
Man that's going to be two tough cards. I'm going to lose a lot of money.
October 29th, 2017 at 8:43:35 AM
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Went to the annual BC Preview Party at Lone Star Park yesterday, it's always cool in that it is free and they give you the DRF advance PP's, then talk about the races for 90 minutes. A couple takeaways--
Bolt D'oro ran faster than Paradise Woods, same day and distance last time but the Beyer Boys adjusted Bolt's # down to 100 and left Paradise's at 105. Without any adjustment Bolt would have been 113 or so which they couldn't leave alone.
Abel Tasman's last race is better than looked as the rail was dead that day, worth a rewatching.
Bolt D'oro ran faster than Paradise Woods, same day and distance last time but the Beyer Boys adjusted Bolt's # down to 100 and left Paradise's at 105. Without any adjustment Bolt would have been 113 or so which they couldn't leave alone.
Abel Tasman's last race is better than looked as the rail was dead that day, worth a rewatching.
October 29th, 2017 at 9:59:43 AM
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what a race the Classic is.
Arrogate, Gun Runner, Collected and West Coast in the same race.
you actually might get 6/1 on one of those great horses. if I had to guess which one it would be Arrogate.
Arrogate, Gun Runner, Collected and West Coast in the same race.
you actually might get 6/1 on one of those great horses. if I had to guess which one it would be Arrogate.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 29, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 29th, 2017 at 11:25:57 AM
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Arrogate won't be higher than 3-1
October 29th, 2017 at 11:45:30 AM
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Del Mar: Always a lovely way to spend any day, enjoying the lovely place fertilized with my money which has been buried there. It is an eccentric surface, dirt and turf, both the old versions and the new, requiring particular insight insight that I've conclusively proven that I do not have, and will never get. And this in the days when I was somewhat of a specialist in the SoCal circuit. And did well, at places not named Del Mar. "My wallet was raped at Del Mar, and it took my t-shirt too."
I knew a fellow about 25 years ago who, while otherwise appearing perfectly sane and quite intelligent, claimed quite seriously that the changing state of the Pacific Ocean tides was important to how he played races on the main (dirt) track. And results argued that he was at least less wrong than I was about anything and everything running there, year after year. So now, I enjoy it by not letting any part of my wallet get mixed up with the charms of Del Mar.
Best o' luck, y'all.
I knew a fellow about 25 years ago who, while otherwise appearing perfectly sane and quite intelligent, claimed quite seriously that the changing state of the Pacific Ocean tides was important to how he played races on the main (dirt) track. And results argued that he was at least less wrong than I was about anything and everything running there, year after year. So now, I enjoy it by not letting any part of my wallet get mixed up with the charms of Del Mar.
Best o' luck, y'all.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
October 30th, 2017 at 1:52:43 AM
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the Sprint:
Drefong
Roy H
Imperial Hint
blazing speed. who has the edge? help me out.
Drefong
Roy H
Imperial Hint
blazing speed. who has the edge? help me out.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 30th, 2017 at 4:53:57 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterwhat a race the Classic is.
Arrogate, Gun Runner, Collected and West Coast in the same race.
you actually might get 6/1 on one of those great horses. if I had to guess which one it would be Arrogate.
My guess:
Gun Runner - 2-1
Arrogate - 5/2
West Coast - 5-1
Collected - 7-1
October 31st, 2017 at 10:50:03 AM
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the morning line has West Coast and Collected both at 6/1. if that sticks those are nice prices for those two.
Collected beat Arrogate in his last race. he got stuck at post 11 but he has speed to get more inside quickly.
West Coast has won his last 5 races, 3 of them were graded stakes and 2 were grade 1s.
Collected beat Arrogate in his last race. he got stuck at post 11 but he has speed to get more inside quickly.
West Coast has won his last 5 races, 3 of them were graded stakes and 2 were grade 1s.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 31st, 2017 at 11:56:39 AM
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My money will still be on Arrogate. If he runs his best race, he wins. You can't always find a pick like that at presumably better than even money.
That said, I completely understand those who try to find value on others.
That said, I completely understand those who try to find value on others.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
November 1st, 2017 at 6:09:31 AM
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Anyone kind enough to post pps please? I like West Coast and Drefong to show. Parlay them for over 100% return.
November 1st, 2017 at 8:28:28 AM
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just about everybody is saying Bolt D'oro is a sure winner in the juvenile. he's in a 12 horse field.
I think he'll probably go off under even money.
I'm wondering with all the soft money being bet, many once in a blue moon players picking other than the favorite to place or show if he'll pay more than he should for place or show.
the link is a podcast from 4 talking heads from the DRF discussing the races. the commentary is pretty good. mostly pretty obvious stuff though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuLGliuqXkk
I think he'll probably go off under even money.
I'm wondering with all the soft money being bet, many once in a blue moon players picking other than the favorite to place or show if he'll pay more than he should for place or show.
the link is a podcast from 4 talking heads from the DRF discussing the races. the commentary is pretty good. mostly pretty obvious stuff though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuLGliuqXkk
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
November 1st, 2017 at 9:10:30 AM
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Javier Castellano was riding yesterday at Mahoning valley race course. That was strange.
I am a robot.
November 1st, 2017 at 3:40:58 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterjust about everybody is saying Bolt D'oro is a sure winner in the juvenile. he's in a 12 horse field.
I think he'll probably go off under even money.
I'm wondering with all the soft money being bet, many once in a blue moon players picking other than the favorite to place or show if he'll pay more than he should for place or show.
the link is a podcast from 4 talking heads from the DRF discussing the races. the commentary is pretty good. mostly pretty obvious stuff though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuLGliuqXkk
A Bolt D'Oro win bet is not going to be smart. I think checking the pools before the race is a good idea. If he's below 35% in the place pool, I think it's a good bet.
November 1st, 2017 at 3:43:50 PM
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The Dirt Mile is my issue for Friday. I like Sharp Azteca. Eddie O. likes Accelerate. I'd like to single there so I can spread elsewhere. I'm going with Abel Tasman and Stellar Wind in the Distaff.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:45:29 PM
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get what you need from this page.....
downthestretchs.com
downthestretchs.com
get second you pig
November 2nd, 2017 at 3:13:06 PM
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in the Turf Highland Reel is the 2nd favorite at 5/1.
he won it last year wiring the field.
his jock is Ryan Moore who many regard as the worlds' greatest jockey.
and it's a race that demands great skill from a jockey.
he won it last year wiring the field.
his jock is Ryan Moore who many regard as the worlds' greatest jockey.
and it's a race that demands great skill from a jockey.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
November 2nd, 2017 at 5:57:25 PM
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Really sucks you can't edit old posts...
I 100% revoke my kind words about Twinspires. The weekly bet club, 5-6% rebate for playing on weekdays, is not extended to their VIP's. So basically, I took advantage of it for the month of October and noticed it wasn't showing up as an offer anymore (even though it showed up when I wasn't logged in). After some discussion with the CSR, she finally admits that VIP's are disallowed from this specific offer. Basically, with some delay, Twinspires has worked it so that you get less back the more you spend. Don't get me wrong, I get that 5-6% back from some tracks isn't sustainable, just feel kind of cheated. Moved my casual play to TVG.
If you're the type to put in your bet at the last second, DO NOT USE TWINSPIRES FOR THE BREEDER'S CUP. Their videos are 4-5 seconds behind (given my previous statement, I understand the skepticism, but this is an honest critique).
I 100% revoke my kind words about Twinspires. The weekly bet club, 5-6% rebate for playing on weekdays, is not extended to their VIP's. So basically, I took advantage of it for the month of October and noticed it wasn't showing up as an offer anymore (even though it showed up when I wasn't logged in). After some discussion with the CSR, she finally admits that VIP's are disallowed from this specific offer. Basically, with some delay, Twinspires has worked it so that you get less back the more you spend. Don't get me wrong, I get that 5-6% back from some tracks isn't sustainable, just feel kind of cheated. Moved my casual play to TVG.
If you're the type to put in your bet at the last second, DO NOT USE TWINSPIRES FOR THE BREEDER'S CUP. Their videos are 4-5 seconds behind (given my previous statement, I understand the skepticism, but this is an honest critique).
Last edited by: ahiromu on Nov 2, 2017
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
November 3rd, 2017 at 10:33:04 AM
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Quote: speedycrapAnyone kind enough to post pps please? I like West Coast and Drefong to show. Parlay them for over 100% return.
Here you go - click on the "Filter by Race" button to choose a race.
November 3rd, 2017 at 2:20:20 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyHere you go - click on the "Filter by Race" button to choose a race.
those aren't PPS. those are entries. I'm not able to post PPs but equibase.com has free charts on any horse in every race they ran in. it takes more time to go through them all for a race but in some ways they are better than PPs although they don't have speed figures. Keeneone sometimes posts PPs but not this time. here are the results for West Coast a horse I like in the Classic. click on "results" and then the chart for details of his performance in any race. the charts will give you more detailed comments than PPs under the heading "footnotes" on how the horse ran his race from the DRF chart writer.
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9705888®istry=T&rbt=TB
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 3, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
November 3rd, 2017 at 2:42:16 PM
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Or open a drfbets account and bet $5 on the race. To be clear, you buy the PP (ie drf classic) for a track and then bet $5 on that track.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
November 3rd, 2017 at 5:06:37 PM
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Twinspires you need to bet 10 cents. Xpressbet you need to bet $2. Google will usually help too.
Today was a frustrating day. My pledge for tomorrow is to not switch any picks. Trust my handicapping.
Today was a frustrating day. My pledge for tomorrow is to not switch any picks. Trust my handicapping.
November 3rd, 2017 at 6:53:42 PM
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$146k for a $2 pick 6 ticket:
$2.00 PICK 6 6 OF 6 1/3/11/9/1,15,16/6 $146,053.20
The 9 horse in the 4th race of the pick 6 (7th race overall today, 11/3) was 15-1 and presumably ruined most of the pick 6 tickets.
$2.00 PICK 6 6 OF 6 1/3/11/9/1,15,16/6 $146,053.20
The 9 horse in the 4th race of the pick 6 (7th race overall today, 11/3) was 15-1 and presumably ruined most of the pick 6 tickets.
Last edited by: ahiromu on Nov 3, 2017
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
November 3rd, 2017 at 9:33:50 PM
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In case anyone cares... Here are my top 3 for each race. These are in numerical order:
4 - 4, 7, 11
5 - 3, 4, 12
6 - 9, 10, 11
7 - 5, 9, 14
8 - 2, 7, 10
9 - 8, 10, 12
10 - 1, 7, 11
11 - 3, 4, 12
12 - 5, 8, 11
4 - 4, 7, 11
5 - 3, 4, 12
6 - 9, 10, 11
7 - 5, 9, 14
8 - 2, 7, 10
9 - 8, 10, 12
10 - 1, 7, 11
11 - 3, 4, 12
12 - 5, 8, 11
November 4th, 2017 at 6:30:57 PM
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Baffert goes 0-fer. Both days. A reason: Unprecedented Drug Testing Ahead of Breeders' Cup
Quote: BloodHorseFor this year's Breeders' Cup, out-of-competition testing began in August...
...<SNIP>...
Besides looking for anabolic steroids, the out-of-competition tests also screen for blood-doping agents, growth hormones, venoms, and other non-therapeutic substances.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 5th, 2017 at 1:24:30 AM
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here are the incredible wagering details re this year's Breeders Cup from Forbes:
"The on-track handle at Del Mar on Saturday was $15,900, 812, an increase of 17.2% from 2016 at Santa Anita. In addition, the all-sources handle for Day 2 of the Breeders' Cup came in at $113,803,603, up 6.15% from last year. The two-day all-sources handle of $166,077,486 represented a 5.9% spike from 2016."
horse racing dead? I don't think so.
"The on-track handle at Del Mar on Saturday was $15,900, 812, an increase of 17.2% from 2016 at Santa Anita. In addition, the all-sources handle for Day 2 of the Breeders' Cup came in at $113,803,603, up 6.15% from last year. The two-day all-sources handle of $166,077,486 represented a 5.9% spike from 2016."
horse racing dead? I don't think so.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 5, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
November 5th, 2017 at 11:45:07 AM
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On track handle will be up next year for sure with the Breeders' Cup going to Louisville. I'll be there too!
I wagered about $400 in bets and contests and ended up with about $1000. So a successful BC for me. It's pretty much all thanks to Stormy Liberal in the turf sprint. One 30-1 shot winning is really all you need for a good weekend. That's the reason I think horses are more fun than other forms of gambling.
Hope everyone enjoyed the Breeders'. All the big names losing (and not even really showing up) was tough. Bolt D'Oro winning would have had me hit the Pick-4, and he would have been a potential superstar. Never heard from Drefong. Lady Eli got cut up in her last race which is sad. Arrogate ended his career on a low note.
I'm worried that 2018 will be a tough year for the older males. Gun Runner might be done in time for breeding season. West Coast and Collected are pretty much it, hopefully they stay in training.
On the mares side, Forever Unbridled will stick around. Abel Tasman, Paradise Woods, Unique Bella could make things interesting.
It's way too early to think about three year olds, but like I said previously, Bolt D'Oro looked pretty ordinary.
Nothing special on the grass in either gender.
So, besides a tournament Thanksgiving Weekend, and a little end of season QH racing, my 3 month horse racing offseason starts. I come back after Superbowl Weekend.
Hopefully by then my 4 year old filly will be back racing. It'll be Derby prep season, and we can do this all again. Fun times.
I wagered about $400 in bets and contests and ended up with about $1000. So a successful BC for me. It's pretty much all thanks to Stormy Liberal in the turf sprint. One 30-1 shot winning is really all you need for a good weekend. That's the reason I think horses are more fun than other forms of gambling.
Hope everyone enjoyed the Breeders'. All the big names losing (and not even really showing up) was tough. Bolt D'Oro winning would have had me hit the Pick-4, and he would have been a potential superstar. Never heard from Drefong. Lady Eli got cut up in her last race which is sad. Arrogate ended his career on a low note.
I'm worried that 2018 will be a tough year for the older males. Gun Runner might be done in time for breeding season. West Coast and Collected are pretty much it, hopefully they stay in training.
On the mares side, Forever Unbridled will stick around. Abel Tasman, Paradise Woods, Unique Bella could make things interesting.
It's way too early to think about three year olds, but like I said previously, Bolt D'Oro looked pretty ordinary.
Nothing special on the grass in either gender.
So, besides a tournament Thanksgiving Weekend, and a little end of season QH racing, my 3 month horse racing offseason starts. I come back after Superbowl Weekend.
Hopefully by then my 4 year old filly will be back racing. It'll be Derby prep season, and we can do this all again. Fun times.
November 5th, 2017 at 2:45:25 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterhorse racing dead? I don't think so.
Dead, no, but it's certainly consolidating. What's the next track to close? How long can they keep Pimlico open? How many new tracks have been built in the past year - or decade, for that matter? (They tried up in northern California a few years ago, but the city's council let the citizens vote on it, and they narrowly defeated it.)
November 5th, 2017 at 4:44:29 PM
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Which is of course utterly irrelevant to any sensible consideration of whether it is doing well or poorly. A proliferation of tracks would NOT indicate anything positive about the sport, or the opposite. Consolidation of the business from smaller tracks with short fields of poor stock into the larger higher quality venues has been occurring for a long time, and that's good for it overall. Whether you want to think that on-balance it is doing poorly, or well.Quote: ThatDonGuyDead, no, but it's certainly consolidating. What's the next track to close? How long can they keep Pimlico open? How many new tracks have been built in the past year - or decade, for that matter? (They tried up in northern California a few years ago, but the city's council let the citizens vote on it, and they narrowly defeated it.)
The actual figures for total handle and purses nationwide indicate it has been steady, neither significantly up or down, for at least the last half-decade. Total all-sources US pari-mutual handle (in millions): 2011 = $10,770; 2016 = $10,744 (over ten billion seven-hundred million). Total US gross purses (in millions): 2011 = $1,061.2; 2016 = $1,083.7 (approx. one billion). (Not that any such information would be likely to have any impact on some I can think of around here, who just do not think inductively.)
Do Atlantic City's deepening malaise and closures indicate the US or even the NE/Atlantic region casino business is doing poorly? I sure don't think so. I think it means practically nobody wants to go to a craphole in AC now that they have a choice. In racing, people are wagering more into the pools of higher quality venues, instead of at others. Because unlike the past, now they can. They don't have to play Asswipe Downs or Sewage Meadows, when they have Saratoga and the like available at both brick & mortar off track simulcasting sites as well as on multiple interactive wagering channels on their TV and on the computer or mobile device of their choice. Why should anyone want to keep decrepit Pimlico open? I sure don't. Some Baltimore political hacks will no doubt continue to try to force it remain "open" even as virtually all of that business is now taking place at Laurel & others.
Why would new tracks need to be built? As opposed to the large investments, amounting to more than the total assets of many lesser tracks, made upgrading the facilities of many of the existing major tracks that have the highest quality racing, which are available to most people no matter where they are? Why? How would that foolishness of spreading out the racing stock have anything to do with maintaining or increasing the sport? It wouldn't. Nothing at all. It would more likely tend to do the opposite. This is not 1950.
EDIT: Corrected fat-finger typos, esp. on the $/dates.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Nov 5, 2017
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 5th, 2017 at 6:13:53 PM
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Quote: DrawingDeadIn racing, people are wagering more into the pools of higher quality venues, instead of at others. Because unlike the past, now they can. They don't have to play Asswipe Downs or Sewage Meadows, when they have Saratoga and the like available at both brick & mortar off track simulcasting sites as well as on multiple interactive wagering channels on their TV and on the computer or mobile device of their choice.
There's something I totally forgot to take into account - satellite wagering. Just because there hasn't been a race at Solano County Fairgrounds in years doesn't mean there's no betting on races there pretty much every day, and that beats the 12 days of live racing per year it did have.
November 5th, 2017 at 7:18:31 PM
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Satellite wagering, or simulcasting, or various other terms used to describe betting on races taking place somewhere else, has of course vastly increased the potential market. Arguably even in places that have a major track nearby. So you could argue that maybe it should be doing better than merely holding steady in metrics that reflect year to year nationwide totals.
Some will also feel that something is lost when it becomes more of a video or online virtual experience, without hearing & feeling the impact of hooves pounding and smelling the manure. I have some sympathy for that point of view, maybe partly out of nostalgia. But I think I'd want to apply that kind of concern to a lot of other things first. Like the general sick toxic effect of internet forums and virtual subcultures taking the place of basic general human social interaction, which I think is having the opposite effect of what it does in racing: I think it elevates the very worst of the worst, and suppresses the efficacy of the better parts of human society.
The quantitative information for horse racing is of course very public, gathered on a state-by-state basis as that's where it is regulated and must first be reported. If you want to follow reliable aggregated national metrics for this business, look in on the Jockey Club's site ( http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp ) a few months after the turn of the calendar year. Their publication of the annual Fact Book is universally considered to be authoritative for the thoroughbred racing and breeding industry in North America. Articles containing brief summaries of some aspects of it will appear in specialty publications like BloodHorse soon after it comes out.
ADDENDUM: Someone with a not so virtualized satellite-y point of view on the matter:
Similar to baseball, besides being fun, I do find it is still good for me to go smell the manure when I get a chance, and to remember that it isn't just a bunch of numbers programmed in a video game.
Some will also feel that something is lost when it becomes more of a video or online virtual experience, without hearing & feeling the impact of hooves pounding and smelling the manure. I have some sympathy for that point of view, maybe partly out of nostalgia. But I think I'd want to apply that kind of concern to a lot of other things first. Like the general sick toxic effect of internet forums and virtual subcultures taking the place of basic general human social interaction, which I think is having the opposite effect of what it does in racing: I think it elevates the very worst of the worst, and suppresses the efficacy of the better parts of human society.
The quantitative information for horse racing is of course very public, gathered on a state-by-state basis as that's where it is regulated and must first be reported. If you want to follow reliable aggregated national metrics for this business, look in on the Jockey Club's site ( http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp ) a few months after the turn of the calendar year. Their publication of the annual Fact Book is universally considered to be authoritative for the thoroughbred racing and breeding industry in North America. Articles containing brief summaries of some aspects of it will appear in specialty publications like BloodHorse soon after it comes out.
ADDENDUM: Someone with a not so virtualized satellite-y point of view on the matter:
Similar to baseball, besides being fun, I do find it is still good for me to go smell the manure when I get a chance, and to remember that it isn't just a bunch of numbers programmed in a video game.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Nov 5, 2017
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:49:31 PM
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some of us still thrive playing asswipe and sewage.....to each their own......my best track is Indiana downs by far.
get second you pig
November 5th, 2017 at 11:02:53 PM
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See, there you go. Or don't go, because you don't have to. Because it does go both ways, according to someone's choice. Your own personal 'best by far' little track is far away from you, isn't it? I'm guessing you probably aren't regularly trekking from Ontario to the middle of Indiana while playing it.
As lovely as I'm sure it must be, on the edge of the great center of culture & commerce called Shelbyville, nestled between a Kroger (grocery chain) warehouse, a plumbing parts (*ahem* toilet bowl anyone?) manufacturer, and a robot assembly plant. And nowhere near Ontario according to my map of the joint. I'd feel pretty confident guessing that more people there are playing Aqueduct or Belmont or Gulfstream & the like than the race going off in front of them, but more power to ya.
As lovely as I'm sure it must be, on the edge of the great center of culture & commerce called Shelbyville, nestled between a Kroger (grocery chain) warehouse, a plumbing parts (*ahem* toilet bowl anyone?) manufacturer, and a robot assembly plant. And nowhere near Ontario according to my map of the joint. I'd feel pretty confident guessing that more people there are playing Aqueduct or Belmont or Gulfstream & the like than the race going off in front of them, but more power to ya.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Nov 6, 2017
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 6th, 2017 at 4:45:57 AM
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There was a study done about 5 years ago commissioned by a bunch of tracks. The tracks were nervous because of all the stats you hear. Wagering is down, fans are getting older, foal crops declining. They were wondering how many years the sport had left.
The news they received was somewhat positive actually. There is definitely enough of a "fan base" to keep horse racing around and profitable. The issue is that there are simply too many tracks, and almost half would need to close. That, and better coordination among the remaining tracks would mean that all would make money.
Now I think some of that is occurring naturally. Tracks are closing, and none are being opened. But if it was sped up, it would definitely help the sport overall.
The only part I disagree with is that if a bunch of tracks close, you're missing out on a lot of future fans. I think these tracks just need shorter meets with less days. New York can have it's own schedule. Ontario can. Mid Atlantic. Florida. Kentucky. Midwest might need 2. California. a Southwest circuit. Gotta put Louisiana somewhere. 10 is a round number. There should be no more than 10 tracks running on any day. On Breeders' Cup Saturday there were about 25 in the US.
The news they received was somewhat positive actually. There is definitely enough of a "fan base" to keep horse racing around and profitable. The issue is that there are simply too many tracks, and almost half would need to close. That, and better coordination among the remaining tracks would mean that all would make money.
Now I think some of that is occurring naturally. Tracks are closing, and none are being opened. But if it was sped up, it would definitely help the sport overall.
The only part I disagree with is that if a bunch of tracks close, you're missing out on a lot of future fans. I think these tracks just need shorter meets with less days. New York can have it's own schedule. Ontario can. Mid Atlantic. Florida. Kentucky. Midwest might need 2. California. a Southwest circuit. Gotta put Louisiana somewhere. 10 is a round number. There should be no more than 10 tracks running on any day. On Breeders' Cup Saturday there were about 25 in the US.
November 6th, 2017 at 6:44:54 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleThe only part I disagree with is that if a bunch of tracks close, you're missing out on a lot of future fans. I think these tracks just need shorter meets with less days. New York can have it's own schedule. Ontario can. Mid Atlantic. Florida. Kentucky. Midwest might need 2. California. a Southwest circuit. Gotta put Louisiana somewhere. 10 is a round number. There should be no more than 10 tracks running on any day. On Breeders' Cup Saturday there were about 25 in the US.
The one problem I can see with shorter meets is, you end up with much more moving of horses from one meet to another, and I can hear the animal rights types complaining already.
How many tracks are left in California with thoroughbred meets that run longer than three weeks? Three? (Santa Anita, Del Mar, Golden Gate Fields)
November 6th, 2017 at 8:49:47 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleThere was a study done about 5 years ago commissioned by a bunch of tracks. The tracks were nervous because of all the stats you hear. Wagering is down, fans are getting older, foal crops declining. They were wondering how many years the sport had left.
If you had asked me about horse racing not six months ago I would have shrugged. It's for old timers, part of a bygone era. My view has completely changed and I love it now... Probably second only to craps in terms of gambling enjoyment (I'm 30). I am of the opinion that anyone that loves sports betting is likely to enjoy horses as well, but just doesn't know it. Very few people have grown up around it, plus it's intimidating and easy to go through long losing streaks.
Also, Let It Ride has become my favorite gambling movie.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
