Coronavirus math
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: rxwineRegardless of how this started, i sure hope all countries improve and take seriously infectious disease standards to keep a tighter rein on sources and practices so we can not do this again.
One day, one of you might be one of the few living people of these last two years, and whatever you believe or don’t believe about the virus at least tell the snot-nosed kids of that era, that it was a big freakin hassle and not worth going through again. (Unless you don’t even believe that much, but I hope you do)
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I will tell them it was a big hassle. It has been.
I will tell them I was very concerned with what it turned people to. It has been scary.
I will tell them that much of the "response" turned out to have been a waste of time.
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I guess middle ground is possible, even if it’s a sliver of a particle on subatomic scale.
Quote: OnceDearNot hung up on the term either, just thought I'd mention how I got sense out of google.Quote: AZDuffman
Fine by me, I am not hung up on the term. But the article has a good point about people dying out and natural selection taking over. At the opening of the new world the Indians did not just not die of smallpox because none had it and were immune, it was also all those generations of it having been handed down the Europeans had and they did not.
While this would take thousands of years to be a normal thing not the exception the point is it is out there.
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Did generations of Europeans REALLY have inherited immunity from smallpox? I'll wager if europeans then or now were given clothes from smallpox victims, they too would have dropped like flies. One thing the europeans had handed down to them was the advice to stay the hell away from people with smallpox symptoms. The poor old native americans had never heard of quarantine and generally did not understand or believe in person to person infection at all. (Sounds familiar)
https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/early-america-review/volume-11/native-americans-smallpox
"many Native Americans did not believe that disease was transmitted between individuals. Instead, they ascribed disease to supernatural forces."
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Actually many of the farmers developed immunity because of their exposure to cow pox.
Quote: KeyserQuote: OnceDearNot hung up on the term either, just thought I'd mention how I got sense out of google.Quote: AZDuffman
Fine by me, I am not hung up on the term. But the article has a good point about people dying out and natural selection taking over. At the opening of the new world the Indians did not just not die of smallpox because none had it and were immune, it was also all those generations of it having been handed down the Europeans had and they did not.
While this would take thousands of years to be a normal thing not the exception the point is it is out there.
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Did generations of Europeans REALLY have inherited immunity from smallpox? I'll wager if europeans then or now were given clothes from smallpox victims, they too would have dropped like flies. One thing the europeans had handed down to them was the advice to stay the hell away from people with smallpox symptoms. The poor old native americans had never heard of quarantine and generally did not understand or believe in person to person infection at all. (Sounds familiar)
https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/early-america-review/volume-11/native-americans-smallpox
"many Native Americans did not believe that disease was transmitted between individuals. Instead, they ascribed disease to supernatural forces."
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Actually many of the farmers developed immunity because of their exposure to cow pox.
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Which was the source to the first vaccine.
Quote: TorghattenQuote: Keyser
Actually many of the farmers developed immunity because of their exposure to cow pox.
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Which was the source to the first vaccine.
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I stumbled across some of the history of the smallpox infection and vaccination of Native Americans. We know that there was deliberate infection, but I was surprised that programs were put in place to vaccinate the ones in proximity to settlements, before driving them off their lands. https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2021/03/28/native-americans-vaccine-smallpox-covid/
https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/early-america-review/volume-11/native-americans-smallpox
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Vaccination_Act_of_1832
Quote: OnceDearQuote: TorghattenQuote: Keyser
Actually many of the farmers developed immunity because of their exposure to cow pox.
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Which was the source to the first vaccine.
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I stumbled across some of the history of the smallpox infection and vaccination of Native Americans. We know that there was deliberate infection, but I was surprised that programs were put in place to vaccinate the ones in proximity to settlements, before driving them off their lands. https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2021/03/28/native-americans-vaccine-smallpox-covid/
https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/early-america-review/volume-11/native-americans-smallpox
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Vaccination_Act_of_1832
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You should not be surprised. Do you think people wanted a bunch of Indians infected with smallpox in proximity?
Look at it on two levels. The first is you do not want smallpox around you, period. An Indian tribe infected even if a few miles away still means contact.
Second, lots of people did not want to see the Indians suffer with it. Basic human decency.
I wasn't commenting on the morality of it. It just seemed remarkable. I also learned a bit about how big a killer smallpox was to those tribes, some of which were denied vaccination and pretty much went extinct.Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: OnceDearI stumbled across some of the history of the smallpox infection and vaccination of Native Americans. We know that there was deliberate infection, but I was surprised that programs were put in place to vaccinate the ones in proximity to settlements, before driving them off their lands. https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2021/03/28/native-americans-vaccine-smallpox-covid/
https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/early-america-review/volume-11/native-americans-smallpox
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Vaccination_Act_of_1832
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You should not be surprised. Do you think people wanted a bunch of Indians infected with smallpox in proximity?
Look at it on two levels. The first is you do not want smallpox around you, period. An Indian tribe infected even if a few miles away still means contact.
Second, lots of people did not want to see the Indians suffer with it. Basic human decency.
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Quote: OnceDearI wasn't commenting on the morality of it. It just seemed remarkable. I also learned a bit about how big a killer smallpox was to those tribes, some of which were denied vaccination and pretty much went extinct.Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: OnceDearI stumbled across some of the history of the smallpox infection and vaccination of Native Americans. We know that there was deliberate infection, but I was surprised that programs were put in place to vaccinate the ones in proximity to settlements, before driving them off their lands. https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2021/03/28/native-americans-vaccine-smallpox-covid/
https://www.varsitytutors.com/earlyamerica/early-america-review/volume-11/native-americans-smallpox
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Vaccination_Act_of_1832
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You should not be surprised. Do you think people wanted a bunch of Indians infected with smallpox in proximity?
Look at it on two levels. The first is you do not want smallpox around you, period. An Indian tribe infected even if a few miles away still means contact.
Second, lots of people did not want to see the Indians suffer with it. Basic human decency.
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To repeat, I do not see what is remarkable about it.
Yes, it was big because as I pointed out posts above they had no resistance let alone immunity to it. Europeans dealt with it for 1000 years or more so resistance was bred-in. Not so with Indians where the same resistance would be random at best. Different races still have different tolerances and resistances.
I am thinking our education systems teach this a bit different.
Quote: AZDuffman
To repeat, I do not see what is remarkable about it.
Yes, it was big because as I pointed out posts above they had no resistance let alone immunity to it. Europeans dealt with it for 1000 years or more so resistance was bred-in. Not so with Indians where the same resistance would be random at best. Different races still have different tolerances and resistances.
I am thinking our education systems teach this a bit different.
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Our education system does not teach much US history, because we Brits and Europeans have more than enough of our own. Not that I liked History, back then. Partly why we don't understand each-others cultures much.
It was remarkable to me that your states and federal government would actually vaccinate any of the American Indians. I/ We perceive only hostility between the invaders and the indigenous peoples. What I read today is that the vaccination of American Indians was based on expediency and not altruism.
Quote: OnceDearQuote: AZDuffman
To repeat, I do not see what is remarkable about it.
Yes, it was big because as I pointed out posts above they had no resistance let alone immunity to it. Europeans dealt with it for 1000 years or more so resistance was bred-in. Not so with Indians where the same resistance would be random at best. Different races still have different tolerances and resistances.
I am thinking our education systems teach this a bit different.
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Our education system does not teach much US history, because we Brits and Europeans have more than enough of our own. Not that I liked History, back then. Partly why we don't understand each-others cultures much.
It was remarkable to me that your states and federal government would actually vaccinate any of the American Indians. I/ We perceive only hostility between the invaders and the indigenous peoples. What I read today is that the vaccination of American Indians was based on expediency and not altruism.
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There was mostly hostility as it was a 150 year struggle for the continent. On one hand it was not planned but neither did it "just happen." OTOH it was not a "Final Solution" type of thing. Weaker tribes perished but guess what, they would have perished to other tribes had Columbus not sailed the ocean blue. It was a matter of two cultures that could never live side by side. By the late 1800s the thing was to try to assimilate them. Most fought against this and as a result to this day Indian Reservations are about the worst places to live in the USA. Those that adapted have done better, best example probably the Seminoles in Florida.
Quote: kewlj
Yep, spreading like wildfire. Everyone will get it. I am not even sure that is a bad thing.
I am not isolating, but I am choosing not to put myself in the riskiest situation at the moment and for me that includes blackjack tables in casinos. I am not trying to avoid getting covid (which would be my 3rd round), I just prefer not to get it while hospital and medical personnel are over run, which every expert says will be the case for the next couple weeks.
So my plans have changed in the last 24 hours after my brother and I both tested positive FOR THE THIRD FREAKING TIME!
My brother has very mild symptoms, which is why we tested. I have no symptoms. Our other housemate tested negative. I suspect he may have cleared already since he is the one that still goes out to work among the public, he probably got it first and gave it to us. So assuming I continue to be asymptomatic and test negative by the end of the week, I can jump back into my casino routine a little earlier than I planned.
I am a little annoyed and concerned that there have been 3 major variants in 2 years, and I have caught all 3. I guess the good thing is that after my first time that I was pretty sick, the second time was very mild and so far this time no symptoms. Maybe something is working right. Still kind of annoyed about catching every freaking variant, but I guess between spending 20-25 hours a week in casinos (although that wasn't the cause this go round) and living in a highrise where you are with other people in the lobby and elevators, and having someone in the house that works retail and deals with the public, ya know.
I don't think it much matters with Omicrom. Everyone is going to catch it.
If you already have COVID I would advise not getting a booster until you test negative or there could be very bad side effects, much like having COVID.
If you already have covid, you are isolating.Quote: ChumpChangeI signed up to get my booster at the local WalMart by the end of the week.
If you already have COVID I would advise not getting a booster until you test negative or there could be very bad side effects, much like having COVID.
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Having covid and getting a booster is a moot point. You don't take covid into a vaccination centre. Period.
https://www.verywellhealth.com/covid-19-vaccine-while-infected-with-virus-5097004
https://www.insurancedekho.com/health-insurance/news/can-i-get-the-covid-19-vaccine-while-i-am-still-infected-covid-19-positive-936
Tough break KJ!Quote: kewljQuote: kewlj
Yep, spreading like wildfire. Everyone will get it. I am not even sure that is a bad thing.
I am not isolating, but I am choosing not to put myself in the riskiest situation at the moment and for me that includes blackjack tables in casinos. I am not trying to avoid getting covid (which would be my 3rd round), I just prefer not to get it while hospital and medical personnel are over run, which every expert says will be the case for the next couple weeks.
So my plans have changed in the last 24 hours after my brother and I both tested positive FOR THE THIRD FREAKING TIME!
My brother has very mild symptoms, which is why we tested. I have no symptoms. Our other housemate tested negative. I suspect he may have cleared already since he is the one that still goes out to work among the public, he probably got it first and gave it to us. So assuming I continue to be asymptomatic and test negative by the end of the week, I can jump back into my casino routine a little earlier than I planned.
I am a little annoyed and concerned that there have been 3 major variants in 2 years, and I have caught all 3. I guess the good thing is that after my first time that I was pretty sick, the second time was very mild and so far this time no symptoms. Maybe something is working right. Still kind of annoyed about catching every freaking variant, but I guess between spending 20-25 hours a week in casinos (although that wasn't the cause this go round) and living in a highrise where you are with other people in the lobby and elevators, and having someone in the house that works retail and deals with the public, ya know.
I don't think it much matters with Omicrom. Everyone is going to catch it.
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But on the bright side is that you can soon be a lot more relaxed, tooled up with some great antibodies. Thankfully, too, you have used the vaccine to stay well and it's mostly worked.
I wish you and your brother a prompt recovery.
Quote: kewljQuote: kewlj
Yep, spreading like wildfire. Everyone will get it. I am not even sure that is a bad thing.
I am not isolating, but I am choosing not to put myself in the riskiest situation at the moment and for me that includes blackjack tables in casinos. I am not trying to avoid getting covid (which would be my 3rd round), I just prefer not to get it while hospital and medical personnel are over run, which every expert says will be the case for the next couple weeks.
So my plans have changed in the last 24 hours after my brother and I both tested positive FOR THE THIRD FREAKING TIME!
My brother has very mild symptoms, which is why we tested. I have no symptoms. Our other housemate tested negative. I suspect he may have cleared already since he is the one that still goes out to work among the public, he probably got it first and gave it to us. So assuming I continue to be asymptomatic and test negative by the end of the week, I can jump back into my casino routine a little earlier than I planned.
I am a little annoyed and concerned that there have been 3 major variants in 2 years, and I have caught all 3. I guess the good thing is that after my first time that I was pretty sick, the second time was very mild and so far this time no symptoms. Maybe something is working right. Still kind of annoyed about catching every freaking variant, but I guess between spending 20-25 hours a week in casinos (although that wasn't the cause this go round) and living in a highrise where you are with other people in the lobby and elevators, and having someone in the house that works retail and deals with the public, ya know.
I don't think it much matters with Omicrom. Everyone is going to catch it.
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I mean if you’re asymptomatic it’s almost a good thing to have it, since we’re all going to get it.
Anyways, maybe try not wearing your covid magnet this time when you start going out again?
Quote: OnceDear[]Tough break KJ!
But on the bright side is that you can soon be a lot more relaxed, tooled up with some great antibodies. Thankfully, too, you have used the vaccine to stay well and it's mostly worked.
I wish you and your brother a prompt recovery.
I have zero symptoms, so nothing to recover from (so far, knock wood I guess). But Thanx OD.
Ya know after I got covid the second time in September and got my Booster in October, I thought I was as protected as a person could be. LOL.
I don't know what is going on. But assuming I remain asymptomatic, I guess something is working.....vaccines, boosters or natural immunity or maybe all 3. The vaccines and boosters were never about preventing someone from contracting the virus as many people mistakenly think. Only about preventing severe illness and to that, at least in my case it is working I guess. :)
Still can't help but wonder, between myself, my brother and my mother, we have had covid 7 times in 2 years, including one severe case (Mom) and one pretty severe case (me first time). Can't help but wonder if there is something in the family genes or something?
Sounds like the vaccine has done what it was supposed to. Indeed this latest infection might be a sign that you are much strengthened in your resistance.... You lucky Lucky B****** $:o) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EI7p2p1QJIQuote: kewljQuote: OnceDear[]Tough break KJ!
But on the bright side is that you can soon be a lot more relaxed, tooled up with some great antibodies. Thankfully, too, you have used the vaccine to stay well and it's mostly worked.
I wish you and your brother a prompt recovery.
I have zero symptoms, so nothing to recover from (so far, knock wood I guess). But Thanx OD.
Ya know after I got covid the second time in September and got my Booster in October, I thought I was as protected as a person could be. LOL.
I don't know what is going on. But assuming I remain asymptomatic, I guess something is working.....vaccines, boosters or natural immunity or maybe all 3. The vaccines and boosters were never about preventing someone from contracting the virus as many people mistakenly think. Only about preventing severe illness and to that, at least in my case it is working I guess. :)
Still can't help but wonder, between myself, my brother and my mother, we have had covid 7 times in 2 years, including one severe case (Mom) and one pretty severe case (me first time). Can't help but wonder if there is something in the family genes or something?
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Omicron is sounding better by the day and may lead us into the end game. UK stats for today have highest daily infections ever at >216,000 but a bit skewed by reporting delays. 1 in 25 Brits is currently infected ! It was about 1 in 60 a month ago and US is 1 in 23. It won't take much social interaction for most of us to catch it.
Unless reinfection of omicron BY omicron is an issue, then this could plateau within January and we could very soon have herd immunity. Yayyyy. Party on!
"Schools should stay open!" - Schools are closing because the staff got sick during Christmas.
"It's a COVID wasteland!" - The WHO
Quote: mcallister3200
Anyways, maybe try not wearing your covid magnet this time when you start going out again?
That is a good idea. I will try to do that.
The first time I got covid, I think it was 3/31/2020, we were in lockdown and I hadn't been out in several weeks. But somebody in our building, on our floor just down the hall got covid and next thing I knew 8-10 people on our floor had it despite not interacting with anyone. I would like to know how that happened?
Second time was sept 2021. I was out and playing at the time, all last summer, so maybe I got it at a casinos, who knows.
This time, I have not been in a Casino since Nov 30th. I do go out most days, but try to avoid people. Don't go in any stores or restaurants, just open outdoor spaces. When I come home, I won't get on the elevator with other people, I will wait. But, like I said, someone in the household does go out to work 4 days a week, so I guess one way or another whatever you do, this variant is going to find everyone, whether they know it or not (asymptomatic).
Quote: ChumpChangeThe US had a million cases reported yesterday. With home testing covered by insurance next week, maybe those results won't be reported. But if cases go up by 10X per 2 weeks, that'd be 10 million new cases per day by the 17th, and 100 million new cases per by the 31st of January.
"Schools should stay open!" - Schools are closing because the staff got sick during Christmas.
"It's a COVID wasteland!" - The WHO
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So 330 million cases by April ! ?? You are the gift that keeps on giving!
Quote: kewljQuote: mcallister3200
Anyways, maybe try not wearing your covid magnet this time when you start going out again?
That is a good idea. I will try to do that.
The first time I got covid, I think it was 3/31/2020, we were in lockdown and I hadn't been out in several weeks. But somebody in our building, on our floor just down the hall got covid and next thing I knew 8-10 people on our floor had it despite not interacting with anyone. I would like to know how that happened?
Second time was sept 2021. I was out and playing at the time, all last summer, so maybe I got it at a casinos, who knows.
This time, I have not been in a Casino since Nov 30th. I do go out most days, but try to avoid people. Don't go in any stores or restaurants, just open outdoor spaces. When I come home, I won't get on the elevator with other people, I will wait. But, like I said, someone in the household does go out to work 4 days a week, so I guess one way or another whatever you do, this variant is going to find everyone, whether they know it or not (asymptomatic).
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Although it's not as likely, you can still contract covid from a surface. This usually requires touching the contaminated area and putting your hand on your face.
So, that would be one way you could get it without close contact. Were you all drinking from the same glass? Passing a joint? Sitting down right after another BJ player, or handling chips right after someone else might do that. Guys sometimes pull at their moustache and things like that.
You can walk through a heavily contaminated area and catch nothing. But contacting the one wrong surface at the wrong time and then tranferring it is possible.
Quote: rxwineWere you all drinking from the same glass?
Of course not!
Quote: rxwinePassing a joint?
I wasn't.
Quote: rxwineSitting down right after another BJ player,
Very possibly. Early on after casinos reopened in 2020, casinos were wiping down seats as soon as one player vacated. That lasted only a few weeks and then it was back to normal.
Quote: rxwineor handling chips right after someone else might do that.
Almost assuredly. Again, right after re-opening, I saw a couple casinos that were dis-infecting chips, by waving a blue light over the rack. I have no idea if that really did anything, but again, that lasted a couple weeks and then right back to normal.
One of the things I was really concerned about and careful about the whole time was elevator buttons. I would always pull my shirt sleeve over my finger when pushing the buttons. Now early on after playing a video poker machine and pushing those buttons, I would spray sanitizer on my hands. As time went on, I stopped carrying sanitizer and just washed my hands occasionally.
The pandemic's true death toll: Daily Estimate of Excess Deaths
All of their code, data, and models are available on GitHub for anyone who wants to really go deep and do their own statistical analysis.
We can play with the numbers and get wholly wrong and even silly conclusions. I myself did some guestimating of where we would be with active cases doubling every week, which they are easily. I came up with whole global population having either been vaccinated or infected after about 7 weeks. It was so absurd that I cancelled the post.Quote: DeMangoQuote: ChumpChangeThe US had a million cases reported yesterday. With home testing covered by insurance next week, maybe those results won't be reported. But if cases go up by 10X per 2 weeks, that'd be 10 million new cases per day by the 17th, and 100 million new cases per by the 31st of January.
"Schools should stay open!" - Schools are closing because the staff got sick during Christmas.
"It's a COVID wasteland!" - The WHO
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So 330 million cases by April ! ?? You are the gift that keeps on giving!
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We could take simpler numbers, such as constant rate of infection of ten million per week, seeing 330 million infected by 33 weeks. Similarly absurd.
Fact is that we can get more or less exponential growth, but that gets slowed as herd immunity approaches. the infection rate is slowed as it grows hungry for rarified non-immune victims.
That was well illustrated by the fourth animated graphic on this old chestnut... https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Omicron can't keep doubling every week, 5 days or whatever it is, forever. But it is racing now, and even the small percentage who are seriously or critically ill from it can and, in some places, are overwhelming health services..... And other services are getting disrupted by sick absences.
I remain hopeful that as omicron tears through our populations, that it brings us to an end game of herd immunity. But I do wish we had some mathematicians on this forum, who might model our situation pragmatically and scientifically. Maybe someone with a real stats background....... Volunteers?
Quote: OnceDearWe can play with the numbers and get wholly wrong and even silly conclusions. I myself did some guestimating of where we would be with active cases doubling every week, which they are easily. I came up with whole global population having either been vaccinated or infected after about 7 weeks. It was so absurd that I cancelled the post.Quote: DeMangoQuote: ChumpChangeThe US had a million cases reported yesterday. With home testing covered by insurance next week, maybe those results won't be reported. But if cases go up by 10X per 2 weeks, that'd be 10 million new cases per day by the 17th, and 100 million new cases per by the 31st of January.
"Schools should stay open!" - Schools are closing because the staff got sick during Christmas.
"It's a COVID wasteland!" - The WHO
link to original post
So 330 million cases by April ! ?? You are the gift that keeps on giving!
link to original post
We could take simpler numbers, such as constant rate of infection of ten million per week, seeing 330 million infected by 33 weeks. Similarly absurd.
Fact is that we can get more or less exponential growth, but that gets slowed as herd immunity approaches. the infection rate is slowed as it grows hungry for rarified non-immune victims.
That was well illustrated by the fourth animated graphic on this old chestnut... https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Omicron can't keep doubling every week, 5 days or whatever it is, forever. But it is racing now, and even the small percentage who are seriously or critically ill from it can and, in some places, are overwhelming health services..... And other services are getting disrupted by sick absences.
I remain hopeful that as omicron tears through our populations, that it brings us to an end game of herd immunity. But I do wish we had some mathematicians on this forum, who might model our situation pragmatically and scientifically. Maybe someone with a real stats background....... Volunteers?
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First, best wishes to kewlj with his latest Covid infection. And, I am really unhappy to hear of people with prior covid infections getting reinfected by Omicron variant!
The problem with modeling and analysis is that the Covid data available to go into the model is corrupted in several different ways or otherwise difficult to interpret and use, I imagine there are world-class modelers trying to analyze this Covid epidemic at the DOE national labs (Los Alamos, Livermore, Oak Ridge, Brookhaven, Argonne, etc.) who are on teams spending roughly 40 hours a week working on understanding all the data being reported. But its hard for those of us sitting at home to put in that kind of time.
"When you sit on the beach and believe that a wave will eventually wash over you, there is little reason to model the wave motion and the tide. Just chill, sip a cold drink, and "perform the experiment" - you will learn with 100% certainty by simply allowing time to go by."
Kewlj…. Is your case ‘counted’, or did you take an at home test?
When you stand on a busy railway track, minding your own business and lots of people yell at you to move, you can experiment with that situation too. There are some on these forums who would stubbornly hold their ground just for spite and to assert their freedom..Quote: gordonm888
"When you sit on the beach and believe that a wave will eventually wash over you, there is little reason to model the wave motion and the tide. Just chill, sip a cold drink, and "perform the experiment" - you will learn with 100% certainty by simply allowing time to go by."
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$:o)
Quote: SOOPOOI now know another close contact who has mild symptoms, took an at home test, and it’s positive. Unless this person gets sicker, this Covid infected person will not appear in any count of Covid cases. The more I think about it, if I test positive but need no medical care, I won’t be counted either. Seems like in a few weeks ‘most?’ will have been infected, and herd immunity will be here. I hope.
Kewlj…. Is your case ‘counted’, or did you take an at home test?
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I drove my wife to be tested at our doctors drive through testing. He said that there was no need for me or the rest of the house to test and to just assume that we all have it... if my wife tests positive. (Since we all had the same stuffy nose and sore throat and are around each other every day.) In our house we didn't bother distancing at all. I asked if it was possible to find out which strain we had and he said that in our area they didn't do such testing because there weren't enough tests. I also asked about the monoclonal antibodies and they said they were no longer available. Neither were any of the therapeutics. (Nobody has them in stock, anywhere.) They only thing we received were Albuterol inhalers.
Our fevers were very low, only about 98.5 to 99.5, and it at worst, felt like a cold for five days. We had coughs for maybe three days. We're both happy that we've caught it because we believe, going forward, that being triple vaxed and having had the virus we're likely to have great immunity for the next version of the China Virus.
I agree that in a few weeks we'll all have herd immunity...after most of us have been infected. Perhaps then the smug and arrogant will stop belittling the unvaxed and will stop calling it a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
Moving forward I hope we can have a positive message and incentivize the next vaccine, rather than bigotry, draconian demands, and humiliating the hesitant.
Quote: OnceDearBut there must surely be a counter fable that teaches children the value of situational awareness and risk management ???
I nominate "Bre'r rabbit and the briar patch.'
see: https://quatr.us/history/brer-rabbit-briar-patch-american-literature.htm
Quote: SOOPOO
Kewlj…. Is your case ‘counted’, or did you take an at home test?
We took at home tests last night. I had just bought them last week, thinking it would be a good thing to have on hand and now have used 3 of the 4. I see no reason, to go to the doctor and get further tested as I did in September when I got covid a second time.
I am not even sure my first case was "counted". I knew I had covid and was pretty sick with many of the usual symptoms, including feeling like someone was squeezing my chest making it hard to breath for a number of days (and nights). I didn't want to tell my doctor or go somewhere and get tested because I was afraid I would end up in the hospital and at the time, I felt like they were putting people on ventilators too quickly. I didn't want to be one of those numbers.
So I battled through it, and when I finally felt better a month later, went and got an antibody test, showing a high number of antibodies. I don't know if results of that antibody test meant I was counted that first time or not. If not then I was only "counted" one of the 3 times I have had it.
Quote: MrVQuote: OnceDearBut there must surely be a counter fable that teaches children the value of situational awareness and risk management ???
I nominate "Bre'r rabbit and the briar patch.'
see: https://quatr.us/history/brer-rabbit-briar-patch-american-literature.htm
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wooooo
Lots of morals to that story.
https://www.govertvanginkel.nl/en/inspiration/the-wise-lessons-of-brer-rabbit/
Anyone got an underground copy of Songs of the South?
Quote: SOOPOOI now know another close contact who has mild symptoms, took an at home test, and it’s positive. Unless this person gets sicker, this Covid infected person will not appear in any count of Covid cases. The more I think about it, if I test positive but need no medical care, I won’t be counted either. Seems like in a few weeks ‘most?’ will have been infected, and herd immunity will be here. I hope.
Kewlj…. Is your case ‘counted’, or did you take an at home test?
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As to counting cases. On one hand it is like counting crimes stopped by a gun. Most never get counted. So the more at-home tests the more potential cases out there. OTOH, is it really right to count a "positive" for someone who does not even notice they are sick? Also, more than a few people are probably getting tested more than once. If that is done at a clinic not at home and gets counted more than once, how much overage do we have?
The only way to count at-home tests would be to force some kind of online reading. This leads to all kinds of issues of do you really want that tracked? I know I do not.
Quote: OnceDearAnyone got an underground copy of Songs of the South?
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"Song of the South"
tuttigym
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymCovid virus math question: An individual waits in line for an hour or more to be tested. He finally gets tested; he tests negative. What are the odds of that individual or any other individual becoming infected with Covid in the next day or ten days or 30 days? How often is one to be tested given the prevailing paranoia fostered by just about everyone?
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There are people out there that want testing weekly.
My company put a little button on our timeclock page asking for our status. I have not yet answered, I think I will wait it out see how serious they are about it.
People who had a booster shot had a 90% lower fatality rate than unboosted patients.
Fauci Says 'Fully Vaccinated' Now Includes "Up To Date" Boosters.
Leading question ignoredQuote: tuttigymgiven the prevailing paranoia
tuttigym
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Quote: gordonm888
The problem with modeling and analysis is that the Covid data available to go into the model is corrupted in several different ways or otherwise difficult to interpret and use, I imagine there are world-class modelers trying to analyze this Covid epidemic at the DOE national labs (Los Alamos, Livermore, Oak Ridge, Brookhaven, Argonne, etc.) who are on teams spending roughly 40 hours a week working on understanding all the data being reported. But its hard for those of us sitting at home to put in that kind of time.
All *mostly* true but that doesn't mean a sufficiently knowledgeable and motivated individual can't play along at home. Folks with the time (e.g., retired scientists/mathematicians) or energy (e.g. grad students) can easily access much of the data and build their own models. For example, look at Youyang Gu. To quote Bloomberg:
Quote:In the contest over who could make the most accurate coronavirus forecast, it was global institutions vs. a guy living with his parents in Santa Clara.
Admittedly, not everyone has a MS from MIT's AI Lab but my point is it is possible to learn a great deal if you're sufficiently motivated. The s/w tools are free and there's a hell of a lot of data out there. As you noted, it gets down to a matter of time.
Quote: SOOPOOTwo more people I know added to the COVID positive rolls today. For the first two years I actually only new maybe a person a month that had COVID. I today know 5 people positive. None are related. All are vaccinated. None are very sick. I just went to a donut shop, the bank, a pharmacy, and Wegmans. Pretty much universal masking. Just a few people with masks around their ears but not covering nose and/or mouth. Snow storm coming. Time to hunker down.
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Interesting on the masking. Was out shortly last night and it remains about only 10% here. Grocery store felt weirdly deserted last night, hard to tell if just January lull of people keeping at home.
Nephew birthday party last week. Since then my mother, sister, and others test positive. All vaxed. I am feeling a bit better day by day since NYD. Doing my part though staying home as much as possible and a little extra distancing on needed trips out.
Quote: SOOPOOTwo more people I know added to the COVID positive rolls today. For the first two years I actually only new maybe a person a month that had COVID. I today know 5 people positive. None are related. All are vaccinated. None are very sick. I just went to a donut shop, the bank, a pharmacy, and Wegmans. Pretty much universal masking. Just a few people with masks around their ears but not covering nose and/or mouth. Snow storm coming. Time to hunker down.
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One in Twenty-One...... Currently infected in the US.
15,536,976/330,000,000
How many people breathe on you per day? Hard to be in the least bit social without being exposed.
Three to Five
Estimate of R value of Omicron. If you don't know what R value is, get out from under that rock!
Three
Number of days needed for daily infection rate to double
Soon.....
.... Soon we will hopefully near herd immunity.
Thankfully Omicron is proving less deadly.... But so many cases, such rapid growth, it's still having big impact.
Stay Safe, Y'all
Quote: OnceDear
One in Twenty-One...... Currently infected in the US.
15,536,976/330,000,000
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Beggar me back'ards
Current UK BBC news.
1 in 15 of us limeys currently infected. This is Coronavirus maths on steroids.
Quote: UK ONSIn England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase; we estimate that 3,270,800 people in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 3,163,500 to 3,377,500), equating to around 1 in 15 people.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest#number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19tom%20more%20covid
Thank **** it's not a serious infection.
Hopefully!Quote: unJonHearing there’s a new variant detected in France they think is more transmissible than Omicron. Hopefully it’s on the same trend of less severity too and pushes herd immunity down the home stretch.
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If it is, then Covid can take it's place in history as the dumbest bit of evolution since the giant panda.
don't count on it.
Quote: OnceDearHopefully!Quote: unJonHearing there’s a new variant detected in France they think is more transmissible than Omicron. Hopefully it’s on the same trend of less severity too and pushes herd immunity down the home stretch.
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If it is, then Covid can take it's place in history as the dumbest bit of evolution since the giant panda.
don't count on it.
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I don’t follow. More transmissible and less severe is smart evolution from a virus point of view. It’s actually the evolutionary pressures that a virus faces.
True, I guess. Covid was not interested in our demise, but on its own longevity.Quote: unJonQuote: OnceDearHopefully!Quote: unJonHearing there’s a new variant detected in France they think is more transmissible than Omicron. Hopefully it’s on the same trend of less severity too and pushes herd immunity down the home stretch.
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If it is, then Covid can take it's place in history as the dumbest bit of evolution since the giant panda.
don't count on it.
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I don’t follow. More transmissible and less severe is smart evolution from a virus point of view. It’s actually the evolutionary pressures that a virus faces.
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https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-011488089270
Something about it is better detected in saliva.
Quote: OnceDearHopefully!Quote: unJonHearing there’s a new variant detected in France they think is more transmissible than Omicron. Hopefully it’s on the same trend of less severity too and pushes herd immunity down the home stretch.
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If it is, then Covid can take it's place in history as the dumbest bit of evolution since the giant panda.
don't count on it.
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Actually, if you listen to the scientists, each variant will spread faster and kill less. Count on it. But you listen to the fear mongers instead.
