Coronavirus math
Quote: billryanTravel " ban" went into effect Feb. 2. Since that date, over 400,000 People have been admitted to the US that have been in China since that time. Many on direct flights from China itself. Screening of flights arriving has been inconsistent, to say the least.
Jan 31 verses Feb 2. Wow possibly a day and a half difference. If we could just narrow it down to the time of day that the memo was received, right? Does anyone know if it went into effect at 3:59pm or was 4:00pm?
Quote: beachbumbabsIf I were being strict, there are 6 different people who would warrant a politics ban in the last 36 hours or so. I think it's nearly impossible to separate the politics from the pandemic, however, so I'm going to stop with a warning, that I WILL be forced to enforce from this point on.
Leave the politics out of it. Stick to discussing and presenting statistics. Thanks. Take the other over to DT if you must make those type comments.
Believe it or not I didn't know that political speech was illegal here until now. I noticed that the election threads were missing but I didn't try looking for them. I tend to come and go from the forums for extended periods so I must have missed the big notice about it. I will make it a point to try and avoid discussing politics.
REPEAT..... Last September 28, approximately 1400 Americans died due to repercussions of cigarette smoking. What did you do on September 28?
Quote: SOOPOOMore math for you. It is likely any day now we will eclipse 1000 deaths ina single day in the USA due to coronavirus. If and when it eclipses 1,400 in a day, it will have caught up to our AVERAGE number of deaths per day attributable to cigarette smoking!
REPEAT..... Last September 28, approximately 1400 Americans died due to repercussions of cigarette smoking. What did you do on September 28?
Fascinating statistic! Yet so many people continue with the disgusting habit.
Quote: SOOPOOMore math for you. It is likely any day now we will eclipse 1000 deaths ina single day in the USA due to coronavirus. If and when it eclipses 1,400 in a day, it will have caught up to our AVERAGE number of deaths per day attributable to cigarette smoking!
REPEAT..... Last September 28, approximately 1400 Americans died due to repercussions of cigarette smoking. What did you do on September 28?
Using the CDC stats I get 1,315 deaths/per day for tobacco (including effects of 2nd hand smoke). Close enough to the 1,400 number you mention. Using the interactive tool for visualizing the John Hopkins CSSE data set I see 1,320 deaths in the U.S. were recorded yesterday. Looks like we passed the threshold already.
The real issue however is that deaths due to tobacco have been dropping. The daily death rate for COVID-19 is climbing. Again, using the same source for examining COVID stats, I'm seeing a daily increase in the range of 1.17 to 1.24 X. That means in week the daily death count will have gone from ~ 1,300 to somewhere around 4,700.
Quote: TumblingBonesUsing the CDC stats I get 1,315 deaths/per day for tobacco (including effects of 2nd hand smoke). Close enough to the 1,400 number you mention. Using the interactive tool for visualizing the John Hopkins CSSE data set I see 1,320 deaths in the U.S. were recorded yesterday. Looks like we passed the threshold already.
The real issue however is that deaths due to tobacco have been dropping. The daily death rate for COVID-19 is climbing. Again, using the same source for examining COVID stats, I'm seeing a daily increase in the range of 1.17 to 1.24 X. That means in week the daily death count will have gone from ~ 1,300 to somewhere around 4,700.
Even the most pessimistic projections now have coronavirus deaths not reaching cigarette related deaths this year, or ever, of course.
I've tried to explain that a large percent of those 1,315 people who died used a ventilator in their last days. Probably most didn't due to hospice type care. But since, lets say 3000 are on ventilators per day due to cigarette related illnesses, we have already planned easily for that. Those 3,000 ventilators are already distributed around the country. The huge number of coronavirus patients needing a ventilator is of course unprecedented.
I of course could be wrong, but I don't think we will ever get to a death count of 4,700 a day. Hope I'm right.
NY'ers are damn stubborn. We don't like being told what to do. But the streets are empty. I can tell you living here everybody is scared. That's the primary reason we are staying indoors.
I am hearing from many friends that they all know someone affected by the illness. I lost a good friend myself to it.
For the last two weeks I have heard the shrill of ambulance sirens constantly.
For those areas of the U.S. not yet seriously affected, I remember thinking how China seemed so far away. Trust me, if it arrives on your doorstep attitudes will change
Quote: darkozNYC deaths finally lowered yesterday for the first time.
NY'ers are damn stubborn. We don't like being told what to do. But the streets are empty. I can tell you living here everybody is scared. That's the primary reason we are staying indoors.
I am hearing from many friends that they all know someone affected by the illness. I lost a good friend myself to it.
For the last two weeks I have heard the shrill of ambulance sirens constantly.
For those areas of the U.S. not yet seriously affected, I remember thinking how China seemed so far away. Trust me, if it arrives on your doorstep attitudes will change
I just saw a picture of a PACKED subway car. Probably the number of people on the car would not be allowed now in my 60,000 square foot Wegman's. HOW ARE THEY STILL ALLOWING THIS?
( I could be scammed, as there is no absolute way I could verify the picture is from yesterday)
Quote: SOOPOOI just saw a picture of a PACKED subway car. Probably the number of people on the car would not be allowed now in my 60,000 square foot Wegman's. HOW ARE THEY STILL ALLOWING THIS?
( I could be scammed, as there is no absolute way I could verify the picture is from yesterday)
Transportation is considered essential.
Quote: DRichTransportation is considered essential.
I'm not saying it is not. But making the person who just was crammed into a sardine can, when he gets out of the sardine can, stand 6 feet behind the next customer......
Quote: SOOPOOI just saw a picture of a PACKED subway car. Probably the number of people on the car would not be allowed now in my 60,000 square foot Wegman's. HOW ARE THEY STILL ALLOWING THIS?
( I could be scammed, as there is no absolute way I could verify the picture is from yesterday)
Probably a scam.
http://thecity.nyc/2020/03/subway-ridership-plunge-deepest-at-big-manhattan-stations.html
I took this picture of the interior of the port authority at rush hour two weeks ago, when this all started
Do you have a link to that picture? If they aren't wearing masks then it's an old pic for certain
Day 1: 1000 deaths a day
Day 2: 1200
Day 3: 1440
Day 4: 1728
Day 5: 2073
Day 6: 2488
Day 7: 2986
Day 8: 3583
Day 9: 4300
Day 10: 5160
Day 11: 6192
Day 12: 7430
Day 13: 8916
Day 14: 10699
Total dead in 14 days: 59,195
Multiply by 10 for weeks 3 & 4.
The probably all scattered once they saw the MFSWNAPOTEC coming 😉Quote: darkozProbably a scam.
http://thecity.nyc/2020/03/subway-ridership-plunge-deepest-at-big-manhattan-stations.html
I took this picture of the interior of the port authority at rush hour two weeks ago, when this all started
Do you have a link to that picture? If they aren't wearing masks then it's an old pic for certain
Quote: AxelWolfThe probably all scattered once they saw the MFSWNAPOTEC coming 😉Quote: darkozProbably a scam.
http://thecity.nyc/2020/03/subway-ridership-plunge-deepest-at-big-manhattan-stations.html
I took this picture of the interior of the port authority at rush hour two weeks ago, when this all started
Do you have a link to that picture? If they aren't wearing masks then it's an old pic for certain
I'm not in the mood for jokes. I know you don't mean bad. Just not this week.
Next week I hope will be easier
Quote: ChumpChangeDeaths going up 20% per day in the USA.
Day 1: 1000 deaths a day
Day 2: 1200
Day 3: 1440
Day 4: 1728
Day 5: 2073
Day 6: 2488
Day 7: 2986
Day 8: 3583
Day 9: 4300
Day 10: 5160
Day 11: 6192
Day 12: 7430
Day 13: 8916
Day 14: 10699
Total dead in 14 days: 59,195
Multiply by 10 for weeks 3 & 4.
You do realize this was predicted by the President?
Edit just saw deaths going down in NYC!!! Now what Chump?
Quote: DeMangoYou do realize this was predicted by the President?
Edit just saw deaths going down in NYC!!! Now what Chump?
It's only one day. Need to see it move downwards at least three days they say to start feeling confident of a downward curve.
Otherwise it's just a bit of the old variance
However
Deaths went down
Hospitalization went down
Intubation went down
Hospital discharge went up.
So we are keeping our fingers crossed
Quote: billryanA tiger at the Bronx Zoo has tested positive for the virus, the first case I'm aware of of any animal testing positive. There aren't enough tests for first responders but they are testing zoo animals? Good to see the priorities are focused.
A lot of people expressed this
A newer article printed a statement from the zoo that the testing for Coronavirus in animals is a different test. You cannot send human samples for this to a veterinary lab, and vice versa
Carol Baskins is the one responsible. She coordinated with the Chinese to infect the world with the Chinese Covid-19 virus.
Quote: DeMangoYou do realize this was predicted by the President?
Nope. Got channel block on Fox News so I must have never heard it from him.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/bill-gates-coronavirus-pandemic-a-nightmare-scenario.html
Quote: KeyserNot true! Maybe two week ago, but now we are on it.
Now that we are finally "on it", I guess it is time to see just how well our country is performing in it's response to the coronavirus pandemic. For the sake of comparison let's choose three countries with completely independent governments that have been both very open about reporting on their testing and case results and their initial cases were within a day or two of when we reported our first cases. These countries are South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The combined population of these countries is 247 million. After adjusting their reported statistics to be the equivalent of our population, we can look at these numbers as representing the part of the coronavirus pandemic that the virus itself is responsible for. Then subtracting these numbers from those reported by the United States we will arrive at what portion of the pandemic was the result of our response to it.
THE NUMBER OF NEW CASES
United States 33,228
S. Korea, Japan and Thailand 521 Caused by the virus
Difference 32,707 Caused by our response
THE NUMBER OF NEW DEATHS
United States 1,345
S. Korea, Japan and Thailand 14 Caused by the virus
Difference 1,331 Caused by our response
TOTAL DEATHS
United States 8,352
S. Korea, Japan and Thailand 377 Caused by the virus
Difference 7,975 Caused by our response
Quote: GDBONESNow that we are finally "on it", I guess it is time to see just how well our country is performing in it's response to the coronavirus pandemic. For the sake of comparison let's choose three countries with completely independent governments that have been both very open about reporting on their testing and case results and their initial cases were within a day or two of when we reported our first cases. These countries are South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The combined population of these countries is 247 million. After adjusting their reported statistics to be the equivalent of our population, we can look at these numbers as representing the part of the coronavirus pandemic that the virus itself is responsible for. Then subtracting these numbers from those reported by the United States we will arrive at what portion of the pandemic was the result of our response to it.
THE NUMBER OF NEW CASES
United States 33,228
S. Korea, Japan and Thailand 521 Caused by the virus
Difference 32,707 Caused by our response
THE NUMBER OF NEW DEATHS
United States 1,345
S. Korea, Japan and Thailand 14 Caused by the virus
Difference 1,331 Caused by our response
TOTAL DEATHS
United States 8,352
S. Korea, Japan and Thailand 377 Caused by the virus
Difference 7,975 Caused by our response
Yep, very big difference between "on it" and us. But i read warning signs about Japan. Their count has doubled in the last week. Their measures haven't been as strict. I've thought Japan has generally been lucky so far.
The initial exposure to the virus was equal in Japan and the United States, as both had a similar number of flights arriving from China each day. The the virus should have spread much more rapidly through Japan, since their population density is 10 times higher than the United States. And finally, 80% of the deaths caused by the coronavirus are people over the age of 65. Japan has a 175% higher proportion of their population in this age group than America has.
Controlling a pandemic involves being very aggressive as early stages to test any suspected cases. And if you have a positive result you have to track down all possible contacts that person had and testing them even if they are asymptomatic. Something that is still not being being done in America. "Stay at home" measures are only used once it has gotten out of control.
Japan may be facing some problems, but looking at their numbers (adjusted to the population of the United States) they reported on April 4th involving 571 new cases and 21 new deaths; I'd say they are on one hell of a lucky streak.
Quote: DeMangoYou do realize this was predicted by the President?
Edit just saw deaths going down in NYC!!! Now what Chump?
What part of no politics did you not understand, DeMango? 3 days.
I am just wondering whether there is a transmission route that the self-anointed experts are missing.
Quote: ChumpChangeDeaths going up 20% per day in the USA.
Day 1: 1000 deaths a day
Day 2: 1200
Day 3: 1440
Day 4: 1728
Day 5: 2073
Day 6: 2488
Day 7: 2986
Day 8: 3583
Day 9: 4300
Day 10: 5160
Day 11: 6192
Day 12: 7430
Day 13: 8916
Day 14: 10699
Total dead in 14 days: 59,195
Multiply by 10 for weeks 3 & 4.
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠
I don't know how you got it that wrong but your post amounts to scare tactics and people are already scared and they don't need to be scared more than they already are
the image below is from the CDC yesterday and provides accurate information
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
Quote: lilredrooster𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠
I don't know how you got it that wrong but your post amounts to scare tactics and people are already scared and they don't need to be scared more than they already are
the image below is from the CDC yesterday and provides accurate information
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
People aren't half as scared as they should be. One of my neighbors had a pot luck dinner Saturday and were complaining that no one had stacked firewood for the weekly campfire.
Arizona Rangers were busy all weekend, trying to keep tourists from congregating along the Lavender Pit and Brewery Gulch. What kind of moron goes on a vacation during a time like this?
Quote: gordonm888If tigers can be infected by coronavirus, can other animals? Such as rats? Mice? (I understand that domestic pets such as dogs and cats may have been shown to be unlikely to be infected.)
I am just wondering whether there is a transmission route that the self-anointed experts are missing.
We find out that everyone who got it has a house cat? Well, they've been plotting.
Mostly though don't most animals have their own unique versions of diseases, but some cross over, but even then it has to transmit easily to become a real problem.
Quote: GDBONESNow that we are finally "on it", I guess it is time to see just how well our country is performing in it's response to the coronavirus pandemic. For the sake of comparison let's choose three countries with completely independent governments that have been both very open about reporting on their testing and case results and their initial cases were within a day or two of when we reported our first cases. These countries are South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The combined population of these countries is 247 million. After adjusting their reported statistics to be the equivalent of our population, we can look at these numbers as representing the part of the coronavirus pandemic that the virus itself is responsible for. Then subtracting these numbers from those reported by the United States we will arrive at what portion of the pandemic was the result of our response to it.
THE NUMBER OF NEW CASES
United States 33,228
S. Korea, Japan and Thailand 521 Caused by the virus
Difference 32,707 Caused by our response
THE NUMBER OF NEW DEATHS
United States 1,345
S. Korea, Japan and Thailand 14 Caused by the virus
Difference 1,331 Caused by our response
TOTAL DEATHS
United States 8,352
S. Korea, Japan and Thailand 377 Caused by the virus
Difference 7,975 Caused by our response
GDBONES,
I don't know what you're really responding to or what point you're trying to make. I also don't know what the "caused by our response" is supposed to represent. After reading your post a second time it appears that you don't know either.
Quote:An initial study found cardiac damage in as many as 1 in 5 patients, leading to heart failure and death even among those who show no signs of respiratory distress.
https://khn.org/news/mysterious-heart-damage-not-just-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients/
Quote: rxwineSuggesting the virus can infect heart muscle.
https://khn.org/news/mysterious-heart-damage-not-just-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients/
Untreated strep throat can damage the heart too. As can the flu. This is one of the things that has me worrying about how the Chinese virus will effect us years down the road.
Boris Johnson moved to intensive care, a ventilator will be available if needed. He has a cough and a fever. 50% of those moved into the ICU die, 80% of those on a ventilator die.
Quote: lilredrooster𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲, 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠
I don't know how you got it that wrong but your post amounts to scare tactics and people are already scared and they don't need to be scared more than they already are
the image below is from the CDC yesterday and provides accurate information
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
Only social distancing and lockdowns are slowing this down to anything resembling what the CDC is forecasting. The Easter bunny is unsure if there will still be a lockdown, and Dr. Fauci may not last another 2 weeks in office.
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2020-04-06/coronavirus-model-now-estimates-fewer-us-deaths%3fcontext=amp
Estimating peak of mortality for US in mid-April at 3k deaths per day and 81k cumulative mortality through I think August.
Quote: billryan
People aren't half as scared as they should be. One of my neighbors had a pot luck dinner Saturday and were complaining that no one had stacked firewood for the weekly campfire.
Arizona Rangers were busy all weekend, trying to keep tourists from congregating along the Lavender Pit and Brewery Gulch. What kind of moron goes on a vacation during a time like this?
you are surely right that some should be more scared
but if they should be scared then they should be scared with true facts, not with falsehoods
there is already a significant % of the populace who believes everything coming from what used to be considered authoritative voices is nothing but lies
if they're continually told falsehoods then maybe the entire country will soon believe that everything they hear from authority figures and the media is a lie
and then you're talking about total chaos
Here in Buffalo we are a week or two behind NYC. All negative indicators still climbing.
I am a bit flustered no one is talking about a new drug with extreme promise
Hydroxychloriquine is a disaster. If it was really promising then doctors would be touting it and not just politicians
There is a new drug being fast tracked by the FDA. Hugely promising to the point so far (small but critically ill group) had 100% positive results
That's the game changer
I will post about it in the "cure" thread. Definitely interested in your opinion Soopoo
EDIT: I Can't seem to find that thread. If no one else finds it I guess I will post it here
Quote: darkozSoopoo and everyone else.
I am a bit flustered no one is talking about a new drug with extreme promise
Hydroxychloriquine is a disaster. If it was really promising then doctors would be touting it and not just politicians
You must be watching MSNBC . LOL.
I'm hearing/seeing several doctors talk about how it's saving lives. ( Dr. Anthony Cardillo is the latest.. He's combining it with zinc.) (I think he's possibly exploiting the Ionophore effect to get more zinc in the cells.) New studies are also coming out. The fact that every country in the world is rushing to get it should tell you all that you need to know. Also look at Michigan's gov. Look how she did a 180 and now wants it there. Furthermore look the expected number of deaths here in the US. They predicted 100k to 240k deaths. I'd be surprised if we even hit 100k by Aug. at this point. Also, why aren't more Drs becoming infected? Did you know that large numbers of them are taking it as a prophylactic?
In some ways the drug is like the masks. At first we were told that they didn't work. It turns out that it was just part of the disinformation campaign to keep people from buying them up in bulk. Hydroxychloroquine is the same.
Quote: KeyserYou must be watching MSNBC . LOL.
I'm hearing/seeing several doctors talk about how it's saving lives. ( Dr. Anthony Cardillo is the latest.. He's combining it with zinc.) (I think he's possibly exploiting the Ionophore effect to get more zinc in the cells.) New studies are also coming out. The fact that every country in the world is rushing to get it should tell you all that you need to know. Also look at Michigan's gov. Look how she did a 180 and now wants it there. Furthermore look the expected number of deaths here in the US. They predicted 100k to 240k deaths. I'd be surprised if we even hit 100k by Aug. at this point. Also, why aren't more Drs becoming infected? Did you know that large numbers of them are taking it as a prophylactic?
In some ways the drug is like the masks. At first we were told that they didn't work. It turns out that it was just part of the disinformation campaign to keep people from buying them up in bulk. Hydroxychloroquine is the same.
Well this cardillo guy says his patients went from extremely ill to symptom free in 12 hours.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/los-angeles-doctor-says-very-ill-patients-basically-symptom-free-after-taking-trump-touted-drug
If that's true, we should be able to reopen in a week or two
Quote: GDBONESI certainly hope it is true. I know clinical trials are underway and if they showed that type of response rate they would be have to run to completion, because it would be unethical to continue with the placebo group. We may see approval to use this drug very soon. In the mean time, you do have to take these things with a grain of salt until the trials are completed. I have seen reports that some of the people promoting the medication have large holdings in the drug manufacturer, Sanofi.
We have a bingo!
I believe it.Quote: Keyser
It turns out that it was just part of the disinformation campaign to keep people from buying them up in bulk.
It made absolutely no sense to me that they didn't help at all, therefore, I was wearing them whenever possible.
Even if it helps it from just spreading, they should be mandatory for anyone out in public. No one should be allowed in a public area without one.
My main fear with that is people will believe they are safe as long as they are wearing a mask.
The few times that I have been out driving, I've noticed there's lots of people out walking around on the city sidewalks all crowded up next to each other at the crosswalks. I'm not trying to be racist or anything, but I noticed most of those people are minorities. The few times I have been in the stores, it seems like African American people don't seem to be as concern concerned about all this. I noticed a much larger percent of African-Americans are not wearing masks. They don't seem to respect your space and the social distancing protocol. They just seem to be very nonchalant about the whole thing. I was back in the electronic section where everybody seem to be about 10 feet away from each other while waiting patiently in line. While I was at the counter two African American men shoot past the line directly next to me and interrupt the cashier while I'm doing my transaction, just to DEMAND a bag.
Quote: AxelWolfI believe it.
𝘐'𝘮 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘵𝘳𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨, but I noticed most of those people are minorities. The few times I have been in the stores, it seems like African American people don't seem to be as concern concerned about all this. I noticed a much larger percent of African-Americans are not wearing masks. They don't seem to respect your space and the social distancing protocol. They just seem to be very nonchalant about the whole thing. I was back in the electronic section where everybody seem to be about 10 feet away from each other while waiting patiently in line. While I was at the counter two African American men shoot past the line directly next to me and interrupt the cashier while I'm doing my transaction, just to DEMAND a bag.
but it was racist - your anecdotal observations are not useful
if I tell you a story about a bunch of rednecks acting up in a Walmart in West Virginia is that going to mean white people suck?
I don't know, I might interrupt a transaction to ask for a bag too if I thought it was going to be a long wait - I would say, "excuse me sorry to interrupt but..."......it shouldn't take a cashier more than 1 second to give somebody a bag
I was born in Washington DC at a time when it was about 80% black - and raised next to the DC/Maryland border
the soul station radio DJs used to call it "the chocolate city."
I have had a great deal of experience with black people and I can tell you the vast majority of my experiences have been positive
I realize what I just said is also anecdotal and doesn't prove anything
just as your recent experience doesn't prove anything
