Coronavirus math
Today's Cardinals/Bruins game getting postponed after bunch of players test positive
Quote: gordonm888In Arizona, coronavirus deaths peaked at 90/day earlier in July.
Arizona State Department of Health now reports:
3 days ago: 3 deaths
2 days ago: 2 deaths
yesterday: 11 deaths
today: -1 death (yes, NEGATIVE ONE DEATH!)
So deaths are plummeting in Arizona. Our reporter in Arizona should be joyful.
I will repeat- nothing in this post was or is true.
We didn't have negative deaths, we didn't have only 14 deaths over any four day period since before the lockdown ended,and deaths are not plummeting. Nor is his claim of 100 people murdered in Chicago last weekend. .
BrewersQuote: darkozBreaking
Today's Cardinals/Bruins game getting postponed after bunch of players test positive
https://medium.com/@gregggonsalves/statement-from-yale-faculty-on-hydroxychloroquine-and-its-use-in-covid-19-47d0dee7b2b0
Quote: redietzAs far as hydroxychloroquine goes, this is about as definitive as it gets:
https://medium.com/@gregggonsalves/statement-from-yale-faculty-on-hydroxychloroquine-and-its-use-in-covid-19-47d0dee7b2b0
It's sad that I figured all that out months ago
I posted on here that hydroxychloriquine was a disaster and got challenged on it.
Now we just have to wait for the real cure Leronlimab to be approved so the world can get back to normal
Quote: darkozIt's sad that I figured all that out months ago
I posted on here that hydroxychloriquine was a disaster and got challenged on it.
Now we just have to wait for the real cure Leronlimab to be approved so the world can get back to normal
I'd be hesitant to use the word "cure" right now for anything. There is no long term data, so any definition of a "cure" could refer only to the immediate effects. The way long term virus effects are being discovered, we won't know the full consequences of this disease for years.
Quote: redietzI'd be hesitant to use the word "cure" right now for anything. There is no long term data, so any definition of a "cure" could refer only to the immediate effects. The way long term virus effects are being discovered, we won't know the full consequences of this disease for years.
I shall use the word therapeutic.
Cure is my layman speak.
I remember when I was discussing my home invasion "robbery" the officer politely corrected me that it was a "burglary". A mistake he often encountered.
I should point out in my defense the clinical trials for Leronlimab in "mild/moderate" patients is over, is unblinded and we are awaiting results (apparently over 48,000 pieces of data to be compared).
Theoretically if approved the dose would be administered to anyone who gets mildly sick and tests positive so that they don't progress to the severe form of attack. Effectively wiping out hospitalizations from the equation.
So cure feels right even if not technically correct!
New cases statewide have fallen below 1,000 or day and the positive rate is under one percent.
It was a tough battle but NY met the virus, adapted and overcame it.
Quote: billryanIt was a tough battle but NY met the virus, adapted and overcame it.
I agree New York apparently has reasonable control of its pandemic event. However, I hope you aren't assuming too much or speaking too soon.
New York will surprise me if its schools maintain safe-distance separation, consistent mask use, etc. Most schools don't have the required space. Fixing the safe-space problem will take time. But, there's no money, so who cares? With the follow-on recession looming before the country, currently stretched state budgets won't have funds for school modifications.
If safe-distance separation is not embraced, New York schools might create a coronavirus petri dish rather than a wholesome learning environment. Because NY has all types of communities (from rural to NYC), the state will provide a broad-based example for other states to follow (or not). I think we are yet to see whether or not New York "overcame" its battle with the virus.
But, I hope the future shows you "nailed it" with your optimistic assessment. For now, I'm taking the "under."
NY drew up a plan several months ago and has been one of the only states that stuck with it. What I am confident about is they will shut thing down if things start to go south on them.
a Florida sheriff has ordered his deputies not to wear masks
and he has also barred visitors to his offices from wearing them
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/12/us/fl-sheriff-billy-woods-bans-masks.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage
The backlogs at the DMVs must be criminal.
Quote: darkozBreaking
Today's Cardinals/Bruins game getting postponed after bunch of players test positive
Ummmmm NOOOOOOO..... The Cardinals - Bruins game was postponed because the two teams were arguing over whether they should play baseball or hockey......
Quote: lilredroostermore insanity - American style
a Florida sheriff has ordered his deputies not to wear masks
and he has also barred visitors to his offices from wearing them
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/12/us/fl-sheriff-billy-woods-bans-masks.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage
How I wish this shining example of Florida law enforcement was the state's only coronavirus problem.
I am aghast that the state is marching pupils into unprepared schools and (too often) putting teachers at high risk. All this, and a state budget that depends on sales taxes for over 75 percent of its annual revenue, while the economy sputters along at about 30 percent of normal. However one slices and dices the numbers, this coronavirus math is not going to add up to success. It won't be pretty as we limp toward the Holiday season.
Quote: SOOPOOUmmmmm NOOOOOOO..... The Cardinals - Bruins game was postponed because the two teams were arguing over whether they should play baseball or hockey......
I admit the only sports I pay attention to is wrestling.
And from the eighties. Go Bob Backlund!!!
Quote: darkozI admit the only sports I pay attention to is wrestling.
And from the eighties. Go Bob Backlund!!!
I love wrestling. Dan Gable, John Smith, and Cale Sanderson are the best I have seen. I will try to go to the championships in St. Louis this year if they are held.
As soon as a parent gets mid 40s or 50s it's more worrisome.
Because no matter how many precautions are taken, once that kid is in school all day and comes home, he or she is going to look fine. But you really don't know if he or she came into contact with the virus with one of the many kids. Think about it every time you hug him or her and anything else.
They look the same in the morning and same in the evening. Probably more than one day. By the time you find out,
you got it yourself.
Quote:The companies X-Mode and Tectonix analyzed travel to and from Las Vegas during four days, a Friday to Monday, in-July. In compliance with privacy laws, X-Mode collects data from smartphone users, mainly those using fitness and weather apps that track their location. The data represents about 5% of the smartphone users in the United States. Tectonix analyzed the data and visualized it on a map.
During the four-day period, about 26,000 devices were identified on the Las Vegas Strip. Some of those same smartphones also showed up in every state on the mainland except Maine in those same four days. About 3,700 of the devices were spotted in Southern California in the same four days; about 2,700 in Arizona, with 740 in Phoenix; around 1,000 in Texas; more than 800 in Milwaukee, Detroit, Chicago and Cleveland; and more than 100 in the New York area.
I suppose that’s kind of a “Duh” result. What else would you expect?
Quote:On Thursday, officials said the technique worked — and possibly prevented a sizable outbreak on campus. When a wastewater sample from one dorm came back positive this week, the school quickly tested all 311 people who live and work there and found two asymptomatic students who tested positive. They were quickly quarantined.
So if sewage systems were designed to come from identifiable quadrants...
Quote: rxwineThe university is of Arizona is testing sewage.
So if sewage systems were designed to come from identifiable quadrants...
What about the right to privacy? A gubermint that can invade your bodily waste is too much gubermint.
Don't mess with America's bodily fluids.
Quote: billryanWhat about the right to privacy? A gubermint that can invade your bodily waste is too much gubermint.
Don't mess with America's bodily fluids.
A) it's not the government. It's a private University.
B) garbage has always been considered open territory for law enforcement. Throw out evidence to a crime and law enforcement does not need a search warrant to go through your waste
Pretty certain fecal and urine waste flushed down a toilet would qualify as well
It's official here in US as well as Hong Kong
Immunity not good for more than a few months.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1238679
Quote: darkozA) it's not the government. It's a private University.
B) garbage has always been considered open territory for law enforcement. Throw out evidence to a crime and law enforcement does not need a search warrant to go through your waste
Pretty certain fecal and urine waste flushed down a toilet would qualify as well
U of A is most definitely not a private university. Any U of "insert state here" or "X St." is state owned and operated, largely funded by the public.
Quote: darkozForget vaccines.
It's official here in US as well as Hong Kong
Immunity not good for more than a few months.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1238679
I think I’ll wait for some more evidence on that idea.
Quote: mcallister3200U of A is most definitely not a private university. Any U of "insert state here" or "X St." is state owned and operated, largely funded by the public.
Touche
Quote: KeyserWe managed to get past the Spanish Flu, the Honk Kong Flu and we will get past the Wuhan Flu. By this time next year the masks will be virtually non existent.
Don't forget we also got past the Chimney Flu
The fat folks struggle to haul the extra 30-40 pounds around. They're always out of breath. Masks make it worse. Just acknowledge, "Hey, I'm American. I'm too fat to have my air restricted."
Quote: redietzI've gotta do a write-up on the obvious that never gets stated. Americans are really, really fat. That's not a political statement; it's a biological statement. So you have the arguably fattest (outside of Samoa) population with the lowest mask-wearing percentage. That's not a coincidence.
The fat folks struggle to haul the extra 30-40 pounds around. They're always out of breath. Masks make it worse. Just acknowledge, "Hey, I'm American. I'm too fat to have my air restricted."
They ain't fat. They are big-boned.
Im willing take that bet.Quote: KeyserWe managed to get past the Spanish Flu, the Honk Kong Flu and we will get past the Wuhan Flu. By this time next year the masks will be virtually non existent.
I still occasionally imagine going back in time to beat the crap out of the first hog or bat or man eating bat or hog.
Dude, Or pig, you ruined a lot of nice days.
sigh
Quote: KeyserBy this time next year the masks will be virtually non existent.
States that are serious about flattening their C-virus data "curves" increasingly monitor who arrives by plane, as this article explains: Nevada Target of Travel Restrictions From 17 States and D.C. Because Nevada welcomes visitors from everywhere, including states with out-of-control C-virus infections, Nevada will be the last state removed from the "restricted" list.
Based on data in this article, it doesn't sound like Nevada is totally serious about fighting C-virus. Until Nevada's C-virus data demonstrate Nevada has reasonable control of its C-virus problem(s), (currently) one third of the states place "restrictions" (self-quarantine, etc.) on travelers arriving from Nevada. That includes their citizens returning from a Nevada vacation. Basically, Nevada is a C-virus petri dish, and other states -- those more in control of pandemic effects -- all know it.
By this time next year, I expect masks will continue to be "expected" whenever one travels. All because some states -- perhaps including Nevada -- cannot get control of the C-virus. And, absent a C-virus cure, by this time next year America will probably be in a serious recession, in addition to the pandemic. I wouldn't bet on a quick recovery.
Quote: MintyLatest numbers I heard were that if mask usage remains how it presently is we'll see roughly 410 thousand dead by January. That seems like a pretty rapid increase, but then again it's only been sixish months for us to get where we are now.
What people seem difficult to comprehend is that the spread of covid is exponential.
When it was ten people a day dying many (even on here) minimized that by multiplying ten people a day by 365 days in the year. Oh that's not bad what's everyone worried about.
Then when it was 100 a day they did the same.
Then a thousand a day.
we're now at 197,421
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?zarsrc=130#countries
Quote: darkozWhat people seem difficult to comprehend is that the spread of covid is exponential.
When it was ten people a day dying many (even on here) minimized that by multiplying ten people a day by 365 days in the year. Oh that's not bad what's everyone worried about.
Then when it was 100 a day they did the same.
Then a thousand a day.
And it stopped there. And it was localized to just a few very hot spots. And 96% of the 1000 had 2.6 other causes of death so it was not "the virus killing an otherwise healthy person."
Take some zinc, Vitamin D, and hydroxychloroquine and you will massively lower your chances of death.
We have the tools, people are afraid to use them.
Quote: AZDuffmanAnd it stopped there. And it was localized to just a few very hot spots. And 96% of the 1000 had 2.6 other causes of death so it was not "the virus killing an otherwise healthy person."
Take some zinc, Vitamin D, and hydroxychloroquine and you will massively lower your chances of death.
We have the tools, people are afraid to use them.
Fact: The FDA has revoked the EUA for Hydroxychloriquine for Covid-19.
It's as effective as Penicillin in the fight against Covid-19.
Quote: DeMangoI know six months is still early, but 12,000 direct covid deaths divided by 330,000,000 people is mortality rate of .00003636.
An attempt to not include people who had underlying conditions.
If Covid mortality is due to underlying conditions that does not mean Covid-19 was not involved.
If that was how it worked then the AIDS virus would have an extremely low mortality rate as most people died of pneumonia or cancer.
Aunt May was 64 and obese. She'd been obese since childhood. She caught CV19 and was dead ten days later. It must have been her obesity that killed her. Heck, one might argue the CV19 might have extended her life a few extra days.
Lil Robbie was 24 and had sickle cell anemia. He caught six rounds in the stomach after a drive by. Lets put the cause of death as sickle cell, not lead poisoning.
Perhaps Japan should reduce the number of people killed by the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. As 85% of the Japanese population suffered from malnutrition in the summer of 1985, it seems unfair to claim they died from the blast and subsequent radiation exposure.
If a drunk driver kills an obese man with high blood pressure, maybe his attorney can get him off by arguing the man died from being obese.
Endless new possibilities.
Quote: DeMangoI know six months is still early, but 12,000 direct covid deaths divided by 330,000,000 people is mortality rate of .00003636.
OMG. The denominator has to be people with COVID. You can't take the whole population, ffs.
Quote: rsactuaryOMG. The denominator has to be people with COVID. You can't take the whole population, ffs.
Sure he can. It's the new math.
Yup, those with no underlying conditions need to know the true odds.Quote: billryanSure he can. It's the new math.
