Coronavirus math
Quote: AxelWolfPeople keep mentioning the low death rate is.
I'm still wondering about people who will be permanently damaged from this and even die later from other complications the virus caused.
If it doesn't kill you, but it permanently F''s you up... then that should be a factor regarding how serious it is.
I strongly agree with this post. This virus does different things to different people, including damage (some times very severe) to many different organs, heart, brain, kidneys, liver among others. People can die from heart or brain damage, including strokes, caused by covid-19 months, presumably even a year, maybe longer. Well guess what we are NOT a year into this, we are barely even months into this so nobody can about longterm effects. Anything said is just a guess.
And one of the worse things done was the early narrative that only older people and people with compromised or weakened immune systems wear really at danger. Remember back in March, all the coverage of nursing home patients? That set the narrative that people under say 50 and in reasonable health were in little danger and that just has not turned out to be the case. And in my mind, that is why so many people just can't be bothered doing what needs to be done to protect everyone.
The bottom line is there is still very little really known about this virus, how it reacts, changes, mutates, grows or weakens, long lasting effects even to people that seemingly recovered or had a mild case. WE don't know how long any kind of immunity might last....it looks like not very long. Everything at this point is guesswork and most people are being WAY to casual about it IMO.
Now I am not saying I want to lock everything down and close everything like we did in March and April. I go out everyday and do stuff. Try to go about my life and enjoy life. But I don't pretend everything is normal either. I take every precaution and refuse to put myself in situations that I believe are more risky until they figure this thing out and that will be years, even after the first vaccines are "rushed" to market. This is a new world and we need to adjust to it and for some odd reason most have chosen denial instead.
Be on my 10-12th plane segments next week since June next week. SWA, they rule, and no middle seats sold till at least October. See you in Biloxi! Stay cautious and wear that mask!
Had a visit to Vegas mid June. Yesterday first offers arrived via email, Wynn and Cosmo. Good low prices, $60-85 per night, but I'm sure the fine print will reveal onerous resort fees that will make the total price unacceptable. Will hold out for better offers!
Quote: DeMangoSo wondering about permanent damage is just that: wondering. Fear mongering.
No it is not just wondering. We are like 4 month into the first cases here in the U.S. Do you know how early that is in regard to looking at longterm effects? The fact is doctors are now seeing more and more long term effects in people. Lots of scarring in lungs, likely to result in permanent damage and reduced lung capacity maybe for life unless people really work at that and few do or will. And now doctor are seeing some of the same longer term issues with the brain. We are 4 months in! We are only beginning to see the tip of the ice berg concerning long-term effects and complications.
But it’s usually just a tiny percentage of all cases.
Quote: rxwineit’s not really unusual for widespread diseases to have some long term or even permanent effect on some people. If you’re lucky it will be something that resolves in 6 months or a year.
But it’s usually just a tiny percentage of all cases.
We went from three million cases to four million in fifteen days. Even a tiny percentage will be 100,000 plus.
Quote: billryanWe went from three million cases to four million in fifteen days. Even a tiny percentage will be 100,000 plus.
Yeah. I’m just saying, if you are affected months afterward, I wouldn’t assume it’s permanent just yet. A year later, then I’d be a whole lot less optimistic that things aren’t going to get better.
Quote: AxelWolfPeople keep mentioning the low death rate is.
I'm still wondering about people who will be permanently damaged from this and even die later from other complications the virus caused.
If it doesn't kill you, but it permanently F''s you up... then that should be a factor regarding how serious it is.
If the actual death rate is somewhere around one percent, that's not terribly low. Especially if it takes a bad session to confer long lasting immunity. If mild cases don't confer immunity that lasts, then -- to put it in Axel's terms -- you're looking at casino churn. It has a one percent chance of whacking you the first time, and a one percent chance of whacking you the second time and so on.
As kewlJ said, there is no long term data, so nobody knows long term effects.
A few years from now, the death rate and actual total deaths will have been figured out. You can't hide the figures, really. If locations had steady death rates for four or five years, and that's usually the case, then whatever spikes occurred this year will reveal the actual covid-19 deaths there. You just add 'em up.
Now, I'm pretty convinced it's an undercount --
https://www.ibtimes.com/us-coronavirus-death-toll-substantial-undercount-actual-numbers-yale-study-reveals-3004238
In a couple of years, the actual toll will be assigned pretty accurately, so that will be established. Unless you're a conspiracy dude, in which case, you already know everything.
This was always going to be a 24-month go-round. If you want some sobering thoughts without Birx's sycophantic editing or Fauci's measured, restrained public verbiage, I suggest Michael Osterholm:
https://news.yahoo.com/top-epidemiologist-continuing-challenges-covid-100548829.html
Quote: billryanDoctors are familiar with what happens when people's lungs are badly scarred. It's not as if this hasn't happened before. A person's lungs aren't going to recover better because they had a certain virus.
I might note, when you say severe, that's a key point. Some injuries are too severe. But there's this:
Quote:Results from a recent study conducted by researchers at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and Duke University show that lung tissue can be restored following injury. In the study published in the journal Nature Communications, the team found that lung tissue has more dexterity in repairing tissue than previously known.
“It’s as if the lung cells can regenerate from one another as needed to repair missing tissue, suggesting that there is much more flexibility in the system than we have previously appreciated,” said co-senior authors Jon Epstein, MD, chair of the department of Cell and Developmental Biology. “These aren’t classic stem cells that we see regenerating the lung. They are mature lung cells that awaken in response to injury. We want to learn how the lung regenerates so that we can stimulate the process in situations where it is insufficient, such as in patients with COPD [chronic obstructive pulmonary disease].”
https://lungdiseasenews.com/2015/04/16/lung-tissue-can-recover-after-injury-better-than-originally-thought-study-shows/
I'm gonna go with possible permanent lung damage, or lung damage that could last 5 to 10 years at minimum. This virus also affects every other organ, not just lungs.
Just In, and Out: COVID-19 patients will be ‘sent home to die’ if deemed too sick, Texas Starr county says.
Quote: AlanMendelsonIs avoiding an average $30,000 hospital bill for Covid by taking a vaccine an advantage play?
It may depend on your situation. I actually had it and my expenses were 3 Tylenol four times a day for 4 days. My job paid me my 52 week rolling average commission for the time off and probably saved money by eating lunch at home
Quote: Gabes22It may depend on your situation. I actually had it and my expenses were 3 Tylenol four times a day for 4 days. My job paid me my 52 week rolling average commission for the time off and probably saved money by eating lunch at home
Did you get a positive test result? And how long after you were tested?
Quote: Gabes22It may depend on your situation. I actually had it and my expenses were 3 Tylenol four times a day for 4 days. My job paid me my 52 week rolling average commission for the time off and probably saved money by eating lunch at home
Well of course, you were one of the lucky ~80% that didn't require hospitalization. I'd probably be more likely to want to gamble on the vaccine when it's released.
Quote: tringlomaneWell of course, you were one of the lucky ~80% that didn't require hospitalization. I'd probably be more likely to want to gamble on the vaccine when it's released.
None of the 15 or so coworkers at my plant required hospitalization. Maybe you have a source that shows, you have a 20% chance of hospitalization, upon getting infected?
Naysayers pointing to more infection but declining deaths as a good sign.
Ignoring the fact that deaths come two weeks after the higher infection rates (infected first get sick, then treatment, then either survive or die. It's a 2-4 week process and lag
This week USA had a 20% increase in deaths.
That is going to climb week after week.
Like I said here we go again
Quote: darkozWell here we go again.
Naysayers pointing to more infection but declining deaths as a good sign.
Ignoring the fact that deaths come two weeks after the higher infection rates (infected first get sick, then treatment, then either survive or die. It's a 2-4 week process and lag
This week USA had a 20% increase in deaths.
That is going to climb week after week.
Like I said here we go again
Fear Monger. Haven't you read the studies people posted here by the guys from Cali? Deaths should level out at about 40,000 and this will be no worse than the seasonal flu. Everything else is just the lame stream media.
https://tinyurl.com/y58n9qpg
Quote: ChumpChangeColorado COVID-19 outbreak traced to Bible conference that defied health orders: report
https://tinyurl.com/y58n9qpg
One by one the non-believers fall.
Thinking they can beat a virus with wishful thinking
Quote: DeMangoNone of the 15 or so coworkers at my plant required hospitalization. Maybe you have a source that shows, you have a 20% chance of hospitalization, upon getting infected?
Over all ages. And as of may 30th, I was a bit off. 16% for men, 12% for women.
https://www.haponline.org/News/HAP-News-Articles/Latest-News/cdc-confirms-age-underlying-health-conditions-increase-risk-for-covid-19-hospitalization-and-death
Your coworkers will probably have a lower percentage because i assume all or most are under 65?
If a group of 20 somethings got infected for example, 0 out of 15 being hospitalized is definitely possible, probably even likely. So hospitalization rates will likely keep going down. But still not great even if young people catch it and recover. Because there have been stories of lingering effects floating around.
Quote: tringlomaneOver all ages. And as of may 30th, I was a bit off. 16% for men, 12% for women.
https://www.haponline.org/News/HAP-News-Articles/Latest-News/cdc-confirms-age-underlying-health-conditions-increase-risk-for-covid-19-hospitalization-and-death
Your coworkers will probably have a lower percentage because i assume all or most are under 65?
If a group of 20 somethings got infected for example, 0 out of 15 being hospitalized is definitely possible, probably even likely. So hospitalization rates will likely keep going down. But still not great even if young people catch it and recover. Because there have been stories of lingering effects floating around.
As of yesterday in Florida, 5.6% of ALL cases, over 420,000 ended up in hospitals. That's since day one. You assume correctly about age, I would put the average at 30 yo. (Not to be confused with 18)
Arizona State Department of Health now reports:
3 days ago: 3 deaths
2 days ago: 2 deaths
yesterday: 11 deaths
today: -1 death (yes, NEGATIVE ONE DEATH!)
So deaths are plummeting in Arizona. Our reporter in Arizona should be joyful.
Quote: gordonm888In Arizona, coronavirus deaths peaked at 90/day earlier in July.
Arizona State Department of Health now reports:
3 days ago: 3 deaths
2 days ago: 2 deaths
yesterday: 11 deaths
today: -1 death (yes, NEGATIVE ONE DEATH!)
So deaths are plummeting in Arizona. Our reporter in Arizona should be joyful.
Where are you getting these numbers? Arizona reported 19 deaths today, but their Monday totals are usually low. We've also had many days over 100 so your 90 /day is also way off.
to last weeks total.
Quote: billryanSo the news reported that a previously dead person was no longer dead and you didn't find it odd or bother to get a second source?
Geez... you focus in on the minutia.... It was a Mexican immigrant named Jesus Christo.....
Looking at the Worldometer 7-day moving average of AZ Covid deaths, I'd say 90/day looks about right. Although, I wouldn't go as far as to say that number has 'peaked.' Perhaps 'leveled off,' but probably too soon to make that assertion as well.Quote: billryanWhere are you getting these numbers? Arizona reported 19 deaths today, but their Monday totals are usually low. We've also had many days over 100 so your 90 /day is also way off.
Eta: Link
Quote: billryanSo the news reported that a previously dead person was no longer dead and you didn't find it odd or bother to get a second source?
I thought it was the zombie apocalypse.
similar to how wealthy companies profited from the 2008 rescue plan
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/business/economy/fed-talf-wall-street.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
From the article:
"Nationally, COVID-19 deaths have risen for three weeks in a row while the number of new cases week-over-week recently fell for the first time since June."
Be safe while out and about.
Quote: Keeneonehttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-records/arizona-florida-report-record-increase-in-covid-19-deaths-idUSKCN24V2N3
From the article:
"Nationally, COVID-19 deaths have risen for three weeks in a row while the number of new cases week-over-week recently fell for the first time since June."
Be safe while out and about.
This makes total sense as more and more states enact safety protocol like mandatory masks.
The mortality rate takes two weeks lag from the new cases data so expect mortality to rise while new cases drop for about 2-3 weeks
June 20. Attends Trump rally in Oklahoma.
2 weeks later tests positive.
1 week later is hospitalized.
2 weeks later dead.
Maybe Herman's passing will result in some people waking up and taking this virus more seriously.
Quote: gordonm888I thought it was the zombie apocalypse.
200 more have died since you posted this.
Quote: billryanSo the news reported that a previously dead person was no longer dead and you didn't find it odd or bother to get a second source?
Quote: gordonm888I thought it was the zombie apocalypse.
Quote: billryan200 more have died since you posted this.
Are you implying that my humorous comment (and, damn, it was funny, wasn't it?) makes me somehow responsible for the 200 covid deaths of the people in your state? My wife and I are being super-cautious about staying home, wear N-95 masks (thanks to the help of another forum member) and in no way contribute to the transmission of disease.
Look, something like 10,000 people die in the United States, on average, every day. (332,000,000 people/ 80 years per person/ 365 days per year). And in the world, maybe 200,000 people die every day. Death is part of the human condition - war, famine, disease, accidents, murder, suicide, crime, natural disasters, etc.
Ex: I think >100 people got murdered in Chicago over the past weekend. Black lives, too, and young people. There is tragedy in the world! People are dieing unnecessarily in Africa and Asia and South America from all types of causes.
I guess some people want to wring their hands and be dramatic about tragedy and make bitter angry comments to innocent people.
Quote: gordonm888
Look, something like 10,000 people die in the United States, on average, every day. (332,000,000 people/ 80 years per person/ 365 days per year). And in the world, maybe 200,000 people die every day. Death is part of the human condition - war, famine, disease, accidents, murder, suicide, crime, natural disasters, etc.
"Well I was working on some words when Sarah called me up
She said that Lex had gone asleep and wasn't waking up
And even though I knew that there was nothing to be done
I felt bad for not being there and now, well, she was gone
So I tried to think what Lex would want me to do
At times like this when I was feeling blue
So I gathered up some friends to spread the sad sad news
And we headed to the City for a drink or two
And we sang
"We live to dance another day,
It's just now we have to dance for one more of us,
So stop looking so damn depressed,
And sing with all our hearts, long live the Queen"
The Queen is dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RbNdwY4ujw
Quote: gordonm888Are you implying that my humorous comment (and, damn, it was funny, wasn't it?) makes me somehow responsible for the 200 covid deaths of the people in your state? My wife and I are being super-cautious about staying home, wear N-95 masks (thanks to the help of another forum member) and in no way contribute to the transmission of disease.
Look, something like 10,000 people die in the United States, on average, every day. (332,000,000 people/ 80 years per person/ 365 days per year). And in the world, maybe 200,000 people die every day. Death is part of the human condition - war, famine, disease, accidents, murder, suicide, crime, natural disasters, etc.
Ex: I think >100 people got murdered in Chicago over the past weekend. Black lives, too, and young people. There is tragedy in the world! People are dieing unnecessarily in Africa and Asia and South America from all types of causes.
I guess some people want to wring their hands and be dramatic about tragedy and make bitter angry comments to innocent people.
What I am stating is the information you posted was wrong. You claimed deaths in Arizona had dropped dramatically and listed what you claimed were the total deaths for four or five days.
The information you posted was wrong, and anyone looking at it could tell it was wrong. You also claimed that deaths had peaked at 90 a day. Again, false information. Arizona has had many days with over 100 deaths this month.
A few weeks ago, you posted numbers about your home state that were patently false. When someone posted the official numbers, what was your response?
Now you claim more than 100 people got murdered in Chicago last weekend. Have a source? Google says ten people killed this weekend, eleven people last weekend.
Quote: SOOPOOGeez... you focus in on the minutia.... It was a Mexican immigrant named Jesus Christo.....
The difference between >90 and -1 is minutia?
Quote: tringlomaneThe difference between >90 and -1 is minutia?
It's a bad flu season. It will be gone by May. June at the latest.
No! As I posted previously, that number (90) was pretty much spot-on (a little high, actually). Any talk of death rates must use at least a 7-day moving average to have any meaning.Quote: billryanThe information you posted was wrong, and anyone looking at it could tell it was wrong. You also claimed that deaths had peaked at 90 a day. Again, false information.
As you pointed out, the reporting of deaths is cyclical. Sunday/Monday reports are always low (because of the weekend, we can safely assume). Tuesday reports are always higher than normal. Any death rate that doesn't look at an entire week is meaningless.
And to date, the death rate did peak last week, and has dropped since. But that doesn't mean it won't top the peak tomorrow.
Worldometer for AZ
Quote: JoemanNo! As I posted previously, that number (90) was pretty much spot-on (a little high, actually). Any talk of death rates must use at least a 7-day moving average to have any meaning.
As you pointed out, the reporting of deaths is cyclical. Sunday/Monday reports are always low (because of the weekend, we can safely assume). Tuesday reports are always higher than normal. Any death rate that doesn't look at an entire week is meaningless.
And to date, the death rate did peak last week, and has dropped since. But that doesn't mean it won't top the peak tomorrow.
Worldometer for AZ
No one is talking about death rates. We are talking about deaths. To say deaths peaked at 90 would mean there were no days higher than 90.
Wha? Everyone has been talking about death rates for the last 4+ pages. Literally, every post (ironically, including your last one here) that contains a number, has referred to a rate.Quote: billryanQuote: JoemanNo! As I posted previously, that number (90) was pretty much spot-on (a little high, actually). Any talk of death rates must use at least a 7-day moving average to have any meaning.
As you pointed out, the reporting of deaths is cyclical. Sunday/Monday reports are always low (because of the weekend, we can safely assume). Tuesday reports are always higher than normal. Any death rate that doesn't look at an entire week is meaningless.
And to date, the death rate did peak last week, and has dropped since. But that doesn't mean it won't top the peak tomorrow.
Worldometer for AZ
No one is talking about death rates. We are talking about deaths.
A rate is defined in this context as the number of occurrences per unit time. So, every time a post includes the word 'day,' or implies some length of time, we are talking about rates.
Again, no. Gordon said*:Quote:To say deaths peaked at 90 would mean there were no days higher than 90.
Which, except for the fact that the number is actually 83 deaths per day (see Worldometer link above), and not 90, remains true.Quote: gordonm888In Arizona, coronavirus deaths peaked at 90/day earlier in July.
As I stated previously, the way Covid deaths are reported, a single day's numbers are meaningless. There were zero deaths reported in AZ on July 27. ZERO! Does this mean that the pandemic is over in Arizona? Of course not. Because single day numbers are meaningless.
The most meaningful way to interpret the data is to use a 7-day moving average. And that average has not gone above the 83 mark since it was set last week.
