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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 11th, 2012 at 2:23:57 AM permalink
Quote: JohnnyQ

Maybe the "line" is set too high.

What would be the odds to get an even # of gamblers
on both sides ? Maybe 3 to 1 ?



Most people have said I have set the line far too low. I forget who, but someone here suggested 50 -1, but of course wouldn't put his money where his mouth is. My friends in the medical community think she has a few percent chance of success, if you define success as the entire 90 pound loss. Others have posted about their successess, and they have been successes, but none approached the 90lbs in 9 months mark.
As far as quitting artificial sweeteners as dm has suggested, I don't think that point is relevant IF you are on a defined calorie diet. If you are saying using the artificial sweeteners causes you to eat more high calorie foods, then perhaps non dieters who just use the artificial sweeteners will gain weight.
Someone once suggested to me that if you just eliminate all calories from any liquid intake (no juice, sugared soda, alcohol, milk shakes) that pounds start falling off. When I hit a weight i was unhappy with, I switched from sugared sodas to club soda, and lost the desired amount pretty quickly. I made no other lifestyle or dietary changes.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 11th, 2012 at 2:39:41 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

All this talk is fine, but unless another 5-6
people sign on, this bet is never gonna
happen. Right now the chance of it happening
at all is about 20%..



You may be correct, Bob. But I think HB is 'all in' already, and will take the bet regardless of if we can amass the 9000 in bets against her. HB has told me she may have one $900 investor amongst her friends, and if she confirms it I will report that to the forum. So how about you, EvenBob, putting up $450 to win $50? Thats less than a dime per post from you.....
dm
dm
Joined: Apr 29, 2010
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  • Posts: 699
January 11th, 2012 at 4:55:08 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Yes........ Next question?




Next question: where has your sanity gone? It seems to have disappeared.
MakingBook
MakingBook
Joined: Sep 19, 2011
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January 11th, 2012 at 7:36:29 AM permalink
Earlier I said the odds should be 50-1 minimum. Upon further review, I'd estimate 100-1 would be more realistic. Laying 9-1 looks too easy. Very little chance someone weighing 250 immediately has the pride or discipline to return to a normal weight in such a short period of time. People that weigh 250 get that way due to lack of pride, laziness, and little or no discipline. People do not change what they are just because the calendar changes from Dec 31 to Jan 1. Reason why I will not take the bet, you ask? Here's why:

1) This is a internet forum. I'm supposed to take a bet real dollars with someone I've never met? Are you nuts?

2) Sounds like a scam to me. How can this be verified? Maybe HB doesn't currently weigh 250? Maybe she already weighs 160. Maybe she has a twin sister, or a look-a-like that currently weighs 160?

3) How do we know HB isn't going to cheat via surgery, or liposuction? I'm supposed to take the word of a stranger 2,000 miles away? No thanks.

4) Most likely outcomes- people that take the bet will win and not be paid; or people that take the bet will be scammed and lose $900.

Remember people, the human race is divided into two groups- the suckers and the sharps.

Sorry to be so harsh- it's just my honest opinion.
"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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January 11th, 2012 at 9:10:23 AM permalink
[deleted]
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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January 11th, 2012 at 9:29:31 AM permalink
Well HB's been a relatively honest member of this forum for quite some time. I'm sure that if all of the forums were in a room together, she'd have no problem securing the bet. Absolutely, there's a big risk that the beginning weight and progress over time would need to be verified, as well as the fact that she doesn't have a twin sister.

The verification step should be well monitored by other non-biased members of this forum. In any case, the people on this forum (generally) are not idiots, and if they are taking the bet, they will cover themselves or will rely on HB's honor to honor the bet.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
P90
P90
Joined: Jan 8, 2011
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  • Posts: 1703
January 11th, 2012 at 9:45:44 AM permalink
Quote: MakingBook

Earlier I said the odds should be 50-1 minimum. Upon further review, I'd estimate 100-1 would be more realistic. Laying 9-1 looks too easy.


Perhaps, but I'd never consider the bet at 100:1.
Consider that at 9:1, if you believe the true odds to be 100:1, the EV of this bet is still only +0.1 or 10% advantage.
I estimate the true odds to be closer to 20:1, and that's a 5% advantage.
This has to be weighed against 1) long time to resolve the bet, 2) indeed, lower bettor confidence than in a more official setting.

Quote: MakingBook

1) This is a internet forum. I'm supposed to take a bet real dollars with someone I've never met? Are you nuts?


A number of people on this forum have met personally. Generally, many are brought together by visiting or living in Vegas, providing the perfect opportunity for a meeting. HB lives in Mexifornia, just across the state line, and presumably will visit LV in the future as well.
So you aren't supposed to, but for some members it would not be an issue at all.
If anything the risk of bettors not paying up is higher, because they are less involved in this.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
ncfatcat
ncfatcat
Joined: Jun 25, 2011
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January 11th, 2012 at 10:45:10 AM permalink
You know thinking about it I know several people who walk 4 miles a day for exercise. They are all skinny as a rail.
Gambling is a metaphor for life. Hang around long enough and it's all gone.
HotBlonde
HotBlonde
Joined: Feb 8, 2011
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January 11th, 2012 at 12:06:47 PM permalink
Just quickly I want to say that when SOOPOO and I first discussed this I did mention that I assumed people would want some sort of proof that I currently weigh what I do and he kept telling me no, don't worry about it, no one's gonna ask. I am totally ok giving more proof. As I had suggested to SOOPOO I can take a picture of myself on the scale with a newspaper. But even better yet I will take a video of myself in my bathing suit so you can see that I will have no extra weight or anything hidden on me and I will videotape myself getting on the scale and show you the number. I can add a newspaper in there, I can walk over and videotape this blog on it to show you that it is indeed today's date. I will identify the birthmarks and moles on my body so that when I weigh in on Oct 17th you can reverify these things, I'm 100% ok with ALL of this. I would want to do this to verify that I am being fair but would feel pretty silly doing it if no one wants to put up any money after that. But if requested I am 100% ok doing that and can do it as early as today. I will even invite EuropeanHottie over to have her in the video and have her show you that I am not hiding anything under my swimsuit, she can do a body check for verification.

Say the word and I can do this and have it uploaded by the end of today on YouTube and I'll provide a link. But again I don't want to do this in vain. I will do it so that whoever requests will actually bet the money. I really, really want to hit $9,000 in bets against me.
OFFICIALLY and justifiably reclaimed my title as SuperHotBlonde!
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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  • Posts: 24166
January 11th, 2012 at 12:09:25 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

So how about you, EvenBob, putting up $450 to win $50? Thats less than a dime per post from you.....



I 100% believe she can do it, why would I bet. I want
a piece of HER action, not yours.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

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