Evenbob's Roulette Thread
September 27th, 2023 at 4:42:00 PM
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Quote: EvenBobI've been thinking about putting all this to rest. I really don't have time to keep responding to the same drivel everyday. I'm thinking about running this by Mike and having somebody put up $1,000 and I'll turn it into $1,500 and provide a history of the betting at the online casino that did it. It has to be from somebody I trust, which means most of the people in this thread are out. Maybe Mike will do it, we'll see. It probably doesn't matter because you'll all say oh, Axel could do that in 5 minutes in roulette everyday.
How does that sound, would that make any difference at all or are your minds so stuck on burning the witch at the stake because your well went dry that you can't see reason.
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This post shows how poorly Bob understands the math surrounding gambling. Like absolutely no clue.
I have never played roulette (I’m too smart!)
But I’ll bet ANY amount of money that ANYONE wants to put up that I can turn $1000 into $1500 on either a land based casino roulette game or an on line one.
And I’ll also bet ANY amount of money that EB cannot turn $1k into $2500.
If you notice, one of the numbers is above $2k, the other below $2k.
Neither bet for me would be a sure thing, but both would be highly +EV.
September 27th, 2023 at 4:43:10 PM
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Quote: AxelWolf
Turning 1k into $1500 could be meaningless or super meaningful depending on how you achieved that $500 profit. If you were to bet $500 and win.
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I would make a series of smaller bets until I reached 500. I would never risk $500 bet with a $1,000 bankroll, that's just suicide.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 27th, 2023 at 4:50:31 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO
But I’ll bet ANY amount of money that ANYONE wants to put up that I can turn $1000 into $1500 on either a land based casino roulette game or an on line one.
And I’ll also bet ANY amount of money that EB cannot turn $1k into $2500.
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I told you, go back and read my original post. I said somebody will say, oh that's easy, Axel could do that every 5 minutes in roulette. LOL! I know how you people think better than you do. And please explain to me what the difference is between making $1,500 or $2,500 or $5,000. It would just take more time, and all the time I spend doing this I'm taking time away from playing for myself. I'm not getting anything out of this monetarily.
{soopoo forgot to add that I don't pay my bills playing roulette and I actually don't play roulette at all and that I play tiddlywinks and think I'm playing roulette. I almost didn't recognize his post without his mantra}
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 27th, 2023 at 4:51:27 PM
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Can you show your calculations? Even 18/38 = approximately 46% is wrongQuote: billryan1) If you bet two columns in roulette, you have a 66% chance of winning.
2) If you bet on Red, you have an 18/38 chance of winning so lets call it 46%
3) If you bet on green, you have about an 8% chance.
It’s all about making that GTA
September 27th, 2023 at 4:59:53 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: Dieter
It sounds like you may be trying to sell a betting system, which is specifically prohibited. If this turns out to be the case, it will be dealt with later.
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Nope, just another challenge. For the 1,314th time I don't use system, I use a method. Why this is so hard to get straight is a mystery to me. How this could be construed as trying to sell something would have to be explained to me because I don't see that anywhere in my post. You people keep telling me you want proof this would be another form of proof. I would take $1,000 and turn it into $1,500 and post the results of the casino where I made the bets. Money talks and BS walks, as they say. Please give me the details of how you came to the conclusion that would be somehow selling a system.
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Having someone else hand you $1000 to play sounds like it could be trying to sell a system.
If you want to call it a method, picks, service, scheme, approach... no matter. I believe administration will agree that's against the rules, as it bears substantial similarity to what we call a system.
I still don't know what you would stand to lose in your challenge, test, trial, demonstration... or whatever the suitable name is.
A put-up-or-shut-up would seem to require all participants be subject to an element of risk.
May the cards fall in your favor.
September 27th, 2023 at 5:00:53 PM
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With an 80% hit rate it would be idiocide not to.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolf
Turning 1k into $1500 could be meaningless or super meaningful depending on how you achieved that $500 profit. If you were to bet $500 and win.
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I would make a series of smaller bets until I reached 500. I would never risk $500 bet with a $1,000 bankroll, that's just suicide.
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Obviously, if that's you're last 1k and you will be homeless if you were to lose both bets it's probably a bad Idea.
If one can achieve a long-term 80% hit rate on roulette I would advocate one taking out a high-interest loan if need be and then use Kelly or half Kelly and rape the casinos. You're not going to lose.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 27th, 2023 at 5:27:42 PM
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Quote: Ace2Can you show your calculations? Even 18/38 = approximately 46% is wrongQuote: billryan1) If you bet two columns in roulette, you have a 66% chance of winning.
2) If you bet on Red, you have an 18/38 chance of winning so lets call it 46%
3) If you bet on green, you have about an 8% chance.
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I do them in my head. 38 spots. Each spot covers about 2.6 of the wheel. It's easier to multiply by 2.5 so 18x 2.5=45 with some leftovers so I rounded down to 46%. For this exercise, 46% works better as the total for the bets rounds out to 120%.
That's the beauty of a method. You can bend time and reality to get rid of pesky inconveniences that plague the 99%.
Last edited by: billryan on Sep 27, 2023
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
September 27th, 2023 at 5:47:46 PM
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Hey, I'm not Bob's biggest fan when it comes to this roulette crap and many other things. I'd be the first one to call him out if I thought he was trying to sell or make money off his roulette ramblings. I do not believe that's the case, and I believe you're way off base.Quote: DieterQuote: EvenBobQuote: Dieter
It sounds like you may be trying to sell a betting system, which is specifically prohibited. If this turns out to be the case, it will be dealt with later.
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Nope, just another challenge. For the 1,314th time I don't use system, I use a method. Why this is so hard to get straight is a mystery to me. How this could be construed as trying to sell something would have to be explained to me because I don't see that anywhere in my post. You people keep telling me you want proof this would be another form of proof. I would take $1,000 and turn it into $1,500 and post the results of the casino where I made the bets. Money talks and BS walks, as they say. Please give me the details of how you came to the conclusion that would be somehow selling a system.
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Having someone else hand you $1000 to play sounds like it could be trying to sell a system.
If you want to call it a method, picks, service, scheme, approach... no matter. I believe administration will agree that's against the rules, as it bears substantial similarity to what we call a system.
I still don't know what you would stand to lose in your challenge, test, trial, demonstration... or whatever the suitable name is.
A put-up-or-shut-up would seem to require all participants be subject to an element of risk.
link to original post
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 27th, 2023 at 5:58:04 PM
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Wonderful. Declare your bet size, stick to it, and tell us the minimum and maximum number of bets you'll be making.Quote: EvenBob
I would make a series of smaller bets until I reached 500.
Someone can sim that and tell you you're probability of success.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 27th, 2023 at 5:59:41 PM
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Quote: Dieter
I still don't know what you would stand to lose in your challenge, test, trial, demonstration... or whatever the suitable name is.
A put-up-or-shut-up would seem to require all participants be subject to an element of risk.
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No risk. I will put up $1,000 in escrow against the $1,000 put up by the Challenger so they have no risk whatsoever. Now SooPoo will say, haha, Bob doesn't have $1,000, Bob doesn't play roulette, Bob doesn't do this and Bob doesn't do that. Like he would know. Here's a picture I just took 10 minutes ago of $1,000 with the date, WoV and my name. If this isn't good enough give me a code word and I'll take another picture with the code in it. What do I stand to lose, I don't stand to lose anything, I'm going to make $500 for the Challenger to show that I can do it. If you don't think that proves something, let me know and I'll think of something else. I posted my test results from the casino, nobody believed it. I posted my roulette cards from a real casino and real play for real money and everybody said haha, big deal. Now we're letting money talk we'll see how that goes. My guess is it's going to be rejected because you people don't want to know the truth.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 27th, 2023 at 5:59:43 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfHey I'm not Bob's biggest fan when it comes to this roulette crap and many other things. I'd be the first one to call him out if I thought he was trying to sell or make money off of his roulette ramblings. I do not believe that's the case and I believe you're way off base.Quote: DieterQuote: EvenBobQuote: Dieter
It sounds like you may be trying to sell a betting system, which is specifically prohibited. If this turns out to be the case, it will be dealt with later.
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Nope, just another challenge. For the 1,314th time I don't use system, I use a method. Why this is so hard to get straight is a mystery to me. How this could be construed as trying to sell something would have to be explained to me because I don't see that anywhere in my post. You people keep telling me you want proof this would be another form of proof. I would take $1,000 and turn it into $1,500 and post the results of the casino where I made the bets. Money talks and BS walks, as they say. Please give me the details of how you came to the conclusion that would be somehow selling a system.
link to original post
Having someone else hand you $1000 to play sounds like it could be trying to sell a system.
If you want to call it a method, picks, service, scheme, approach... no matter. I believe administration will agree that's against the rules, as it bears substantial similarity to what we call a system.
I still don't know what you would stand to lose in your challenge, test, trial, demonstration... or whatever the suitable name is.
A put-up-or-shut-up would seem to require all participants be subject to an element of risk.
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Fair endorsement from an unexpected corner.
I hope you understand that anyone asking for $1000 so they can go and test their roulette ideas sounds hinky to me.
May the cards fall in your favor.
September 27th, 2023 at 6:06:19 PM
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Normally it would sound hinky to me too. If it was anybody else, I would cry foul, but it's Bob, I don't even know if he knows what he is offering. I'll have to reread his last post. I'm trying to take it in, it seems to me like he's actually offering someone a no-risk-free-roll. If so, I'm in, and I'll put up the 1K.Quote: DieterQuote: AxelWolfHey I'm not Bob's biggest fan when it comes to this roulette crap and many other things. I'd be the first one to call him out if I thought he was trying to sell or make money off of his roulette ramblings. I do not believe that's the case and I believe you're way off base.Quote: DieterQuote: EvenBobQuote: Dieter
It sounds like you may be trying to sell a betting system, which is specifically prohibited. If this turns out to be the case, it will be dealt with later.
link to original post
Nope, just another challenge. For the 1,314th time I don't use system, I use a method. Why this is so hard to get straight is a mystery to me. How this could be construed as trying to sell something would have to be explained to me because I don't see that anywhere in my post. You people keep telling me you want proof this would be another form of proof. I would take $1,000 and turn it into $1,500 and post the results of the casino where I made the bets. Money talks and BS walks, as they say. Please give me the details of how you came to the conclusion that would be somehow selling a system.
link to original post
Having someone else hand you $1000 to play sounds like it could be trying to sell a system.
If you want to call it a method, picks, service, scheme, approach... no matter. I believe administration will agree that's against the rules, as it bears substantial similarity to what we call a system.
I still don't know what you would stand to lose in your challenge, test, trial, demonstration... or whatever the suitable name is.
A put-up-or-shut-up would seem to require all participants be subject to an element of risk.
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link to original post
Fair endorsement from an unexpected corner.
I hope you understand that anyone asking for $1000 so they can go and test their roulette ideas sounds hinky to me.
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♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 27th, 2023 at 6:11:19 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfWith an 80% hit rate it would be idiocide not to.
Obviously, if that's you're last 1k and you will be homeless if you were to lose both bets it's probably a bad Idea.
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You make no sense. I'm doing a challenge with $1,000 of somebody else's money and I just add that $1,000 to a $10,000 bankroll of my own that would seriously be cheating. I have to use the $1,000 to make the $500. That's the point. And the 80% hit has nothing to do with anything you seem to be so hung up on it. Suppose I hit a zero when I bet $500. So I bet the other $500 on I hit another zero the entire bankroll is gone. The 80% hit rate is over time it's not on every single bet I make. I don't win eight out of 10. I win 80% over a period of time. I might win 20 in a row does that mean I have a 100% hit rate? You have to have a large enough sample to figure out what your hit rate is.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 27th, 2023 at 6:13:36 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: Dieter
I still don't know what you would stand to lose in your challenge, test, trial, demonstration... or whatever the suitable name is.
A put-up-or-shut-up would seem to require all participants be subject to an element of risk.
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No risk. I will put up $1,000 in escrow against the $1,000 put up by the Challenger so they have no risk whatsoever. Now SooPoo will say, haha, Bob doesn't have $1,000, Bob doesn't play roulette, Bob doesn't do this and Bob doesn't do that. Like he would know. Here's a picture I just took 10 minutes ago of $1,000 with the date, WoV and my name. If this isn't good enough give me a code word and I'll take another picture with the code in it. What do I stand to lose, I don't stand to lose anything, I'm going to make $500 for the Challenger to show that I can do it. If you don't think that proves something, let me know and I'll think of something else. I posted my test results from the casino, nobody believed it. I posted my roulette cards from a real casino and real play for real money and everybody said haha, big deal. Now we're letting money talk we'll see how that goes. My guess is it's going to be rejected because you people don't want to know the truth.
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This already sounds more legitimate than I understood your original post to suggest.
It also sounds like there are more details to work out.
I'll graciously sit in the corner and shut up for a bit.
May the cards fall in your favor.
September 27th, 2023 at 6:17:09 PM
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I'm not understanding what or why someone has to put up 1k if they cannot lose it and risk nothing? What am I missing? Just to weed out the poor people? Or just a first come first serve? I'll Bitcoin Mike 1k now if it's actually a no-risk-free roll. If I have risk involved, I need more information.Quote: EvenBobQuote: Dieter
I still don't know what you would stand to lose in your challenge, test, trial, demonstration... or whatever the suitable name is.
A put-up-or-shut-up would seem to require all participants be subject to an element of risk.
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No risk. I will put up $1,000 in escrow against the $1,000 put up by the Challenger so they have no risk whatsoever. Now SooPoo will say, haha, Bob doesn't have $1,000, Bob doesn't play roulette, Bob doesn't do this and Bob doesn't do that. Like he would know. Here's a picture I just took 10 minutes ago of $1,000 with the date, WoV and my name. If this isn't good enough give me a code word and I'll take another picture with the code in it. What do I stand to lose, I don't stand to lose anything, I'm going to make $500 for the Challenger to show that I can do it. If you don't think that proves something, let me know and I'll think of something else. I posted my test results from the casino, nobody believed it. I posted my roulette cards from a real casino and real play for real money and everybody said haha, big deal. Now we're letting money talk we'll see how that goes. My guess is it's going to be rejected because you people don't want to know the truth.
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♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 27th, 2023 at 6:19:02 PM
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You all have short memories. Bob was IN THE MIDDLE of a challenge to prove some of his silly claims with the Wiz when Bob just up and quit. I wonder why?
Summary. There will be no meaningful challenge. There will be HUNDREDS of blithering posts about a challenge.
My offer to the forum is out there. I’ll bet (virtually) any amount of money I can turn $1k into $1.5k at a land casino or an online casino making nothing other than red or black bets. I assure you all I’ve never played roulette before.
Summary. There will be no meaningful challenge. There will be HUNDREDS of blithering posts about a challenge.
My offer to the forum is out there. I’ll bet (virtually) any amount of money I can turn $1k into $1.5k at a land casino or an online casino making nothing other than red or black bets. I assure you all I’ve never played roulette before.
September 27th, 2023 at 6:24:01 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfI'm not understanding what or why someone has to put up 1k if they cannot lose it and risk nothing?
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Because if I don't do it I'll be accused of trying to steal their money. If I don't put up $1,000 in escrow 90% of the people here are going to say this is just a trick on my part to steal $1,000. And I can't take $1,000 of my own money and make $500, what would that prove. It's the combination of the challengers $1,000 and the bet by bet history of how the $500 was made at the casino.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 27th, 2023 at 6:32:26 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO
My offer to the forum is out there. I’ll bet (virtually) any amount of money I can turn $1k into $1.5k at a land casino or an online casino making nothing other than red or black bets. I assure you all I’ve never played roulette before.
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With one $1,000 bankroll, not 12 $1,000 bankrolls, never having played roulette, you think you're going to make $500 when newbies at roulette generally lose their $100 buy-in in about 30 to 40 minutes. So the newbie digs out another $100 bill and he usually loses that one even faster. But not you, Dr Newbie, you're going to win $500 with a $1,000 bankroll not knowing the first thing about what you're doing. My only comment is:
LOLOLOLOL!!!
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 27th, 2023 at 6:49:58 PM
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Okay. For betting on green you can quickly see it’s between 2/40 = 5% and 2/30 = 6.67% (2/40 being much closer to 2/38). No way it’s 8%Quote: billryanQuote: Ace2Can you show your calculations? Even 18/38 = approximately 46% is wrongQuote: billryan1) If you bet two columns in roulette, you have a 66% chance of winning.
2) If you bet on Red, you have an 18/38 chance of winning so lets call it 46%
3) If you bet on green, you have about an 8% chance.
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I do them in my head. 38 spots. Each spot covers about 2.6 of the wheel. It's easier to multiply by 2.5 so 18x 2.5=45 with some leftovers so I rounded down to 46%. For this exercise, 46% works better as the total for the bets rounds out to 120%.
That's the beauty of a method. You can bend time and reality to get rid of pesky inconveniences that plague the 99%.
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The quickest way for any of them wouid be to use 40 as denominator, then adjust answer up by 2/40 = 5% relative. So two columns is 24/40 = 60% times 1.05 is 63%. Pretty close to exact answer of 63.16%
It’s all about making that GTA
September 27th, 2023 at 6:57:55 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOO
My offer to the forum is out there. I’ll bet (virtually) any amount of money I can turn $1k into $1.5k at a land casino or an online casino making nothing other than red or black bets. I assure you all I’ve never played roulette before.
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With one $1,000 bankroll, not 12 $1,000 bankrolls, never having played roulette, you think you're going to make $500 when newbies at roulette generally lose their $100 buy-in in about 30 to 40 minutes. So the newbie digs out another $100 bill and he usually loses that one even faster. But not you, Dr Newbie, you're going to win $500 with a $1,000 bankroll not knowing the first thing about what you're doing. My only comment is:
LOLOLOLOL!!!
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Take me up on the offer then! I’ll be in Vegas in a few weeks. Wizard (if in town) can witness and judge. Tell me how much you want to bet? I know you won’t bet. You are all hot air. But if I’m wrong about you…. Tell us how much? I’ll get the money to the Wiz for escrow.
September 27th, 2023 at 7:03:43 PM
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And what if you actually lose? You still give them back their 1k. And that's why you showed proof of having 1k?Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfI'm not understanding what or why someone has to put up 1k if they cannot lose it and risk nothing?
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Because if I don't do it I'll be accused of trying to steal their money. If I don't put up $1,000 in escrow 90% of the people here are going to say this is just a trick on my part to steal $1,000. And I can't take $1,000 of my own money and make $500, what would that prove. It's the combination of the challengers $1,000 and the bet by bet history of how the $500 was made at the casino.
link to original post
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 27th, 2023 at 7:12:20 PM
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LOL..@ this. Do really think an experienced roulette player has a better chance of winning at roulette than a newb?Quote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOO
My offer to the forum is out there. I’ll bet (virtually) any amount of money I can turn $1k into $1.5k at a land casino or an online casino making nothing other than red or black bets. I assure you all I’ve never played roulette before.
link to original post
With one $1,000 bankroll, not 12 $1,000 bankrolls, never having played roulette, you think you're going to make $500 when newbies at roulette generally lose their $100 buy-in in about 30 to 40 minutes. So the newbie digs out another $100 bill and he usually loses that one even faster. But not you, Dr Newbie, you're going to win $500 with a $1,000 bankroll not knowing the first thing about what you're doing. My only comment is:
LOLOLOLOL!!!
link to original post
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 27th, 2023 at 7:18:37 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfAnd what if you actually lose? You still give them back their 1k. And that's why you showed proof of having 1k?
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What are you, a comedian? If I thought I was going to lose or there was even a possibility of losing I would never do this, yes that's the reason I posted the picture because I know full well the first words out of Dr Newbie's mouth would have been, Bob doesn't even have $1,000.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 27th, 2023 at 7:23:18 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfDo really think an experienced roulette player has a better chance of winning at roulette than a newb?
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An experienced roulette player, what does that even mean. Do I think I have a better chance of winning at roulette than a newbie? Is the sun coming up in the morning? Is the pope Catholic? Did Einstein speak English with a German accent? What a ridiculous question. Read my signature line.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 27th, 2023 at 7:31:04 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO
Take me up on the offer then! I’ll be in Vegas in a few weeks. Wizard (if in town) can witness and judge. Tell me how much you want to bet? I know you won’t bet. You are all hot air. But if I’m wrong about you…. Tell us how much? I’ll get the money to the Wiz for escrow.
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If you actually tried something as ridiculous as this here's how it would go. If it was your lucky day, and that's a big if, you would win about $200 and then lose it back and then lose another $200 so now you have $800 left. Now you will try to get back to $1,000 because that's what everybody does and you'll lose another couple of hundred and you'll have $500 left. At that point you'll remember that when you graduated from medical school they told you that you will always be the smartest person in the room, and because you bought that, you might be smart enough to quit. But if you're a typical gambler you'll just keep going till it's all gone. Why would I or anybody else want to be a part of that.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 27th, 2023 at 7:39:11 PM
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Quote: Ace2Okay. For betting on green you can quickly see it’s between 2/40 = 5% and 2/30 = 6.67% (2/40 being much closer to 2/38). No way it’s 8%Quote: billryan
I do them in my head. 38 spots. Each spot covers about 2.6 of the wheel. It's easier to multiply by 2.5 so 18x 2.5=45 with some leftovers so I rounded down to 46%. For this exercise, 46% works better as the total for the bets rounds out to 120%.
That's the beauty of a method. You can bend time and reality to get rid of pesky inconveniences that plague the 99%.
link to original post
The quickest way for any of them wouid be to use 40 as denominator, then adjust answer up by 2/40 = 5% relative. So two columns is 24/40 = 60% times 1.05 is 63%. Pretty close to exact answer of 63.16%
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To be fair, I read BillRyan's original as satire, with a few glaring mis-estimates. The way he reached 120% of winning was an object lesson in how to not do math. I didn't think for one second that he meant it. But he rather spoiled the joke with his 46% and 8% bits. If Bill really did think he'd reached 120% probability of winning, or any number >100%, then I overestimated his satire and Math skills.
Meanwhile, I'm trying to get my head around EvenBob's ridiculous challenge offer.
Incidentally, posting the picture of $1,000 was hilarious, akin to angrily dropping his pants to PROVE that he hadn't shat himself, unasked.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 27th, 2023 at 7:56:04 PM
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Not so at all. You showed your complete misunderstanding of the Maths behind SooPoo's proposition. He would, I'm sure, have come to the table with the intent of making exactly $500 wagers, until he bust out or made his goal. We could calculate exactly his probability of success, but a decent estimate is $1000/$1500 = 66.7% He then has his sidebet on whether he succeeds, which is a no brainer.Quote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOO
Take me up on the offer then! I’ll be in Vegas in a few weeks. Wizard (if in town) can witness and judge. Tell me how much you want to bet? I know you won’t bet. You are all hot air. But if I’m wrong about you…. Tell us how much? I’ll get the money to the Wiz for escrow.
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If you actually tried something as ridiculous as this here's how it would go. If it was your lucky day, and that's a big if, you would win about $200 and then lose it back and then lose another $200 so now you have $800 left. Now you will try to get back to $1,000 because that's what everybody does and you'll lose another couple of hundred and you'll have $500 left. At that point you'll remember that when you graduated from medical school they told you that you will always be the smartest person in the room, and because you bought that, you might be smart enough to quit. But if you're a typical gambler you'll just keep going till it's all gone. Why would I or anybody else want to be a part of that.
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So, EvenBob. TigerWu's question is a good one. What is EvenBob proposing to prove? Is he going to post a photo of a hairball to prove his cats are not bald? How about a picture of a plate of food to show that the casinos put food on his table.
Or maybe some Yada Yada? Not in reply to me, but to the next guy?
And nothing ever happens. Nothing happens at all. The needle returns to the start of the song and we all sing along like before
Last edited by: OnceDear on Sep 28, 2023
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 27th, 2023 at 8:33:21 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOO
Take me up on the offer then! I’ll be in Vegas in a few weeks. Wizard (if in town) can witness and judge. Tell me how much you want to bet? I know you won’t bet. You are all hot air. But if I’m wrong about you…. Tell us how much? I’ll get the money to the Wiz for escrow.
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If you actually tried something as ridiculous as this here's how it would go. If it was your lucky day, and that's a big if, you would win about $200 and then lose it back and then lose another $200 so now you have $800 left. Now you will try to get back to $1,000 because that's what everybody does and you'll lose another couple of hundred and you'll have $500 left. At that point you'll remember that when you graduated from medical school they told you that you will always be the smartest person in the room, and because you bought that, you might be smart enough to quit. But if you're a typical gambler you'll just keep going till it's all gone. Why would I or anybody else want to be a part of that.
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If it clucks like a chicken it is …. EvenBob!
You don’t want to take this doctor’s money? Come on Bob, PUT UP OR SHUT UP!
ANY amount you want to bet. I turn $1k into $1.5k at the roulette table or you win. This newbie will only bet red or black.
September 27th, 2023 at 8:52:45 PM
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I’ll put up the $1000 if:
1) I understand the parameters of what EB is betting (eg, flat betting X or betting no more than Y)
2) the “math” says EB has no more than a 33% chance of getting to $1,500 based on the parameters in 1)
3) Wizard certifies that EB actually follows parameters; and
4) It’s even money if EB fails I get his $1k in escrow and if he succeeds he gets my $1k.
1) I understand the parameters of what EB is betting (eg, flat betting X or betting no more than Y)
2) the “math” says EB has no more than a 33% chance of getting to $1,500 based on the parameters in 1)
3) Wizard certifies that EB actually follows parameters; and
4) It’s even money if EB fails I get his $1k in escrow and if he succeeds he gets my $1k.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
September 27th, 2023 at 9:00:03 PM
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Quote: Ace2Okay. For betting on green you can quickly see it’s between 2/40 = 5% and 2/30 = 6.67% (2/40 being much closer to 2/38). No way it’s 8%Quote: billryanQuote: Ace2Can you show your calculations? Even 18/38 = approximately 46% is wrongQuote: billryan1) If you bet two columns in roulette, you have a 66% chance of winning.
2) If you bet on Red, you have an 18/38 chance of winning so lets call it 46%
3) If you bet on green, you have about an 8% chance.
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I do them in my head. 38 spots. Each spot covers about 2.6 of the wheel. It's easier to multiply by 2.5 so 18x 2.5=45 with some leftovers so I rounded down to 46%. For this exercise, 46% works better as the total for the bets rounds out to 120%.
That's the beauty of a method. You can bend time and reality to get rid of pesky inconveniences that plague the 99%.
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The quickest way for any of them wouid be to use 40 as denominator, then adjust answer up by 2/40 = 5% relative. So two columns is 24/40 = 60% times 1.05 is 63%. Pretty close to exact answer of 63.16%
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Does a percentage or two make a difference? The difference between winning at a 117% pace and a 120% rate is a rounding error.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
September 28th, 2023 at 12:45:13 AM
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Yes, I know YOU don't think you can lose, but your confidence isn't our confidence. It was a straightforward question, can I just get a straightforward answer?Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfAnd what if you actually lose? You still give them back their 1k. And that's why you showed proof of having 1k?
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What are you, a comedian? If I thought I was going to lose or there was even a possibility of losing I would never do this, yes that's the reason I posted the picture because I know full well the first words out of Dr Newbie's mouth would have been, Bob doesn't even have $1,000.
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♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 28th, 2023 at 1:43:45 AM
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Unjon, such an even money wager would be a super bad wager.Quote: unJonI’ll put up the $1000 if:
1) I understand the parameters of what EB is betting (eg, flat betting X or betting no more than Y)
2) the “math” says EB has no more than a 33% chance of getting to $1,500 based on the parameters in 1)
3) Wizard certifies that EB actually follows parameters; and
4) It’s even money if EB fails I get his $1k in escrow and if he succeeds he gets my $1k.
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If we ignore the house edge, then by flat betting or marty or any other money management scheme, EB would have a 66.66% probability of being able to turn 1000 into 1500 (as opposed to losing the $1000.
Calculated as Probability of success = bankroll/(bankroll+win goal) = 1000/1500
See 'OnceDear's rule of thumb.'
This is why SooPoo is offering to do it: 66% chance of winning an even money bet.
Besides, this would not test or prove or disprove EB's educated guess claims. He knows this of course and will retort that we are proving his point.
I'd previously posted 75% in error and will correct those earlier posts.
And nothing ever happens. Nothing happens at all. The needle returns to the start of the song and we all sing along like before
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 28th, 2023 at 1:49:25 AM
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Quote: billryanQuote: Ace2Okay. For betting on green you can quickly see it’s between 2/40 = 5% and 2/30 = 6.67% (2/40 being much closer to 2/38). No way it’s 8%Quote: billryanQuote: Ace2Can you show your calculations? Even 18/38 = approximately 46% is wrongQuote: billryan1) If you bet two columns in roulette, you have a 66% chance of winning.
2) If you bet on Red, you have an 18/38 chance of winning so lets call it 46%
3) If you bet on green, you have about an 8% chance.
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I do them in my head. 38 spots. Each spot covers about 2.6 of the wheel. It's easier to multiply by 2.5 so 18x 2.5=45 with some leftovers so I rounded down to 46%. For this exercise, 46% works better as the total for the bets rounds out to 120%.
That's the beauty of a method. You can bend time and reality to get rid of pesky inconveniences that plague the 99%.
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The quickest way for any of them wouid be to use 40 as denominator, then adjust answer up by 2/40 = 5% relative. So two columns is 24/40 = 60% times 1.05 is 63%. Pretty close to exact answer of 63.16%
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Does a percentage or two make a difference? The difference between winning at a 117% pace and a 120% rate is a rounding error.
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Bill, your side squabble with Ace is distracting. Plus we don't see your tongue in cheek emoji at the idea that you can add up probabilities like that to get >100% probability of the win.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 28th, 2023 at 2:18:45 AM
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I think it needs to be pointed out that Bill is either being ironic, or that he's being a silly Billy.Quote: billryan1) If you bet two columns in roulette, you have a 66% chance of winning.
2) If you bet on Red, you have an 18/38 chance of winning so lets call it 46%
3) If you bet on green, you have about an 8% chance.
So, when you bet two columns, add a bet on red, and hedge it with a bet on green, you have a 66% plus 46% plus 8%. All told, you have a 120% chance of winning on every spin.
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Taking a double zero wheel and covering columns 1 & 2 and covering red and both greens, he will have left uncovered 6, 15, 24 and 33. Thus his probability of getting any payout at all would only be 34/38 not 120%
And of course, for many wagers he will lose more than he wins.
C'mon, BillRyan If you are going to use math in the style of EvenBob, please add a smiley or some sort of tongue in cheek emoticon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Czf4UFt57Fk
Last edited by: OnceDear on Sep 28, 2023
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 28th, 2023 at 5:26:15 AM
permalink
Quote: OnceDearUnjon, such an even money wager would be a super bad wager.Quote: unJonI’ll put up the $1000 if:
1) I understand the parameters of what EB is betting (eg, flat betting X or betting no more than Y)
2) the “math” says EB has no more than a 33% chance of getting to $1,500 based on the parameters in 1)
3) Wizard certifies that EB actually follows parameters; and
4) It’s even money if EB fails I get his $1k in escrow and if he succeeds he gets my $1k.
link to original post
If we ignore the house edge, then by flat betting or marty or any other money management scheme, EB would have a 66.66% probability of being able to turn 1000 into 1500 (as opposed to losing the $1000.
Calculated as Probability of success = bankroll/(bankroll+win goal) = 1000/1500
See 'OnceDear's rule of thumb.'
This is why SooPoo is offering to do it: 66% chance of winning an even money bet.
Besides, this would not test or prove or disprove EB's educated guess claims. He knows this of course and will retort that we are proving his point.
I'd previously posted 75% in error and will correct those earlier posts.
And nothing ever happens. Nothing happens at all. The needle returns to the start of the song and we all sing along like before
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You misread my prong 2. It could never be a bad bet for me to make.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
September 28th, 2023 at 6:12:25 AM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
Serious question:
What would you specifically be trying to prove by turning $1,000 into $1,500 and providing casino logs?
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Serious answer:
Really? You think that's a serious question..
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Yes. Maybe you didn't understand it, so I'll break it down:
Step 1: Someone gives you $1,000.
Step 2: You turn it into $1,500.
Step 3: You provide casino logs showing your progress from $1,000 to $1,500.
Question: What do YOU think specifically has been proven?
September 28th, 2023 at 6:24:56 AM
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Quote: EvenBobI posted my test results from the casino, nobody believed it. I posted my roulette cards from a real casino and real play for real money and everybody said haha, big deal. Now we're letting money talk we'll see how that goes. My guess is it's going to be rejected because you people don't want to know the truth.
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Bullroar. I believed it, and I even said as much. I never doubted your play when you posted evidence of it.
It sounds like both Axelwolf and Unjon have offered to put up a grand and take you up on your challenge. I'm in as well, if there's truly no risk.
So now you have at least three people taking you up on your challenge. Are you going to follow through with any one of us?
September 28th, 2023 at 7:36:16 AM
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Quote: OnceDearI think it needs to be pointed out that Bill is either being ironic, or that he's being a silly Billy.Quote: billryan1) If you bet two columns in roulette, you have a 66% chance of winning.
2) If you bet on Red, you have an 18/38 chance of winning so lets call it 46%
3) If you bet on green, you have about an 8% chance.
So, when you bet two columns, add a bet on red, and hedge it with a bet on green, you have a 66% plus 46% plus 8%. All told, you have a 120% chance of winning on every spin.
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Taking a double zero wheel and covering columns 1 & 2 and covering red and both greens, he will have left uncovered 6, 14, 24 and 33. Thus his probability of getting any payout at all would only be 34/38 not 120%
And of course, for many wagers he will lose more than he wins.
C'mon, BillRyan If you are going to use math in the style of EvenBob, please add a smiley or some sort of tongue in cheek emoticon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Czf4UFt57Fk
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I'm sorry. I thought the whole forum was now officially math-free. If you point me to the right corner, I will take my hypothesis to it.
Professor Steiner warned me that some folks simply wouldn't get his math.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
September 28th, 2023 at 7:39:38 AM
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I don't know about "math-free", but I don't think we charge extra for math.
May the cards fall in your favor.
September 28th, 2023 at 8:10:23 AM
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Quote: TigerWu
Question: What do YOU think specifically has been proven?
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That I took $1,000 and turned it into $1,500 playing roulette. So odd that you have to have that explained to you. Could be more but I'm not going to spend a whole lot of time doing this because I'm getting nothing out of it financially.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 28th, 2023 at 8:13:46 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfIt was a straightforward question, can I just get a straightforward answer?
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If a third party is holding the escrow what do you think would happen. Do you understand what the point of escrow is?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 28th, 2023 at 8:37:30 AM
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So. That'll be a 'no' then to the straightforward answer.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfIt was a straightforward question, can I just get a straightforward answer?
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If a third party is holding the escrow what do you think would happen. Do you understand what the point of escrow is?
link to original post
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 28th, 2023 at 8:55:47 AM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
Question: What do YOU think specifically has been proven?
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That I took $1,000 and turned it into $1,500 playing roulette. So odd that you have to have that explained to you.
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I need it explained because it's such an underwhelming claim relative to everything else you've said on this forum. You understand that, right? Do you really need THAT explained to YOU?
It wouldn't prove your method works.
It wouldn't prove an average 80% hit rate.
It would prove you took a $1,000 bankroll and turned it into $1,500 at roulette. That probably happens daily in almost every casino in the world.
But regardless, you've had multiple people take you up on this challenge already, including me. Is this another challenge you're going to back out of, or are you ready to pull the trigger with someone once you clear it with Wizard and/or the mods?
September 28th, 2023 at 9:32:32 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfAnd what if you actually lose? You still give them back their 1k. And that's why you showed proof of having 1k?Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfI'm not understanding what or why someone has to put up 1k if they cannot lose it and risk nothing?
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Because if I don't do it I'll be accused of trying to steal their money. If I don't put up $1,000 in escrow 90% of the people here are going to say this is just a trick on my part to steal $1,000. And I can't take $1,000 of my own money and make $500, what would that prove. It's the combination of the challengers $1,000 and the bet by bet history of how the $500 was made at the casino.
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And what if he wins?
Nothing about this challenge makes sense.
You guys do realise that he is offering a proposition where he has ~ 60% probability of success, even if he flat bets?
That's why SooPoo is offering the same terms.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 28th, 2023 at 9:48:06 AM
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Quote: OnceDear
And what if he wins?
Nothing about this challenge makes sense.
Which is why he will back out of it, like he always does with his "challenges," even after they've been accepted.
Quote:You guys do realise that he is offering a proposition where he has ~ 60% probability of success, even if he flat bets?
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That's fine with me. If there is zero risk to me, and I get my $1,000 back no matter what, I wouldn't care if the probability of success is 1% or 99%.
September 28th, 2023 at 10:24:20 AM
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Quote: TigerWu
I need it explained because it's such an underwhelming claim
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Actually I thought there would be more pushback than there's been. I thought I would hear Bob, this is the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Bob, nobody cares if you can do this or not. Bob, anybody can do this, which of course SooPoo has already claimed and he's got some ding dong bet going that he thinks I'm going to get involved in but I'm afraid I've moved on from double dare you bets that kids do when they're 10 years old.
Of course I'm waiting for Mike to get back, he gets first crack at this because he's the only person on this entire Forum that I trust entirely. If he doesn't want to do it personally then I'll pick somebody else but this kind of thing is right up his alley so we'll see.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 28th, 2023 at 10:52:25 AM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
I need it explained because it's such an underwhelming claim
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Actually I thought there would be more pushback than there's been. I thought I would hear Bob, this is the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Bob, nobody cares if you can do this or not. Bob, anybody can do this, which of course SooPoo has already claimed and he's got some ding dong bet going that he thinks I'm going to get involved in but I'm afraid I've moved on from double dare you bets that kids do when they're 10 years old.
Of course I'm waiting for Mike to get back, he gets first crack at this because he's the only person on this entire Forum that I trust entirely. If he doesn't want to do it personally then I'll pick somebody else but this kind of thing is right up his alley so we'll see.
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So the wager is to see if EB gets lucky?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
September 28th, 2023 at 10:56:09 AM
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September 28th, 2023 at 11:06:48 AM
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Yes I 100% understand what escrow is.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfIt was a straightforward question, can I just get a straightforward answer?
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If a third party is holding the escrow what do you think would happen. Do you understand what the point of escrow is?
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I have done it with Mike a few time's.
Wonderful..
Again, what happens if you lose?
I will put up 1k in escrow if I have no risk as your challenge suggests.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 28th, 2023 at 11:11:18 AM
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Oh great, you will swear him to secrecy and if you fail we will know nothing like before. If you keep doing that over and over eventually you will succeed and you will only allow that information to be reviled.Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
I need it explained because it's such an underwhelming claim
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Actually I thought there would be more pushback than there's been. I thought I would hear Bob, this is the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Bob, nobody cares if you can do this or not. Bob, anybody can do this, which of course SooPoo has already claimed and he's got some ding dong bet going that he thinks I'm going to get involved in but I'm afraid I've moved on from double dare you bets that kids do when they're 10 years old.
Of course I'm waiting for Mike to get back, he gets first crack at this because he's the only person on this entire Forum that I trust entirely. If he doesn't want to do it personally then I'll pick somebody else but this kind of thing is right up his alley so we'll see.
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♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
