OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Feb 05, 2016

Chasing Losses

We Know it's Dumb! Who Confesses to Doing It?

I Do!!!
Right. Confession time. Not a brilliant month gambling wise. A few hundred here or there without any profit, if you get my drift. Pah! but still in comfortable spending zone.
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Online Casino. Added £200 credit: Marginally more than usual.
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Didn't last long. Dammit.
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Added another £200: Didn't get a warm fuzzy feeling.
Didn't last long. Dammit. Didn't feel good about that at all.
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Added another £200. Objective, to win SOME back, so as to not write the day off as a particularly bad one.
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It wasn't a good start. Lost down to £100. Really not where I wanted to be.
Threw out a few reckless bets (Did I mention RNG BJ?)
Found myself at £300, which meant I was in a less disastrous £300 down status.
Considered quitting with my shirt still on..
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Didn't quit. Pushed on.
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Passed through £600, break even on the day.
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Didn't quit. Pushed on.
Jeez, I'm a dumb-ass. Lobbing out £5 to £50 a pop.
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Passed through £1000. Starting to feel happier. £1100 felt like a nice goal, which would leave me £500 up if attained.
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Push, pushitty push.
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£1100 attained. Whoop Whoop Whoop.
But then I looked at my cashier history for recent weeks. I'm still just a few hundred down for the week and a bit since last cashout.
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Push, pushitty push.
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Current balance £1254.50
That last £200 'investment' has restored me to in profit for the day by £654.50 and almost break even since last cashout.
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One of these days, I'm going to push my luck to breaking point. Or I'm going to realise I have a two faced problem:-

I'm gambling too much, but I'm too damned lucky to quit.

ps. There were bits of Marty and money management in tonight's session. Much luck when it was most needed.

pps, Footnote.
After writing that I was still marginally down for the last few sessions, i pushed on just a little bit.
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Scratched, scrambled and scraped my way onwards and upwards to £1508.50 £2003.50
That puts me ahead for the period since last cashout and £908.50 £1503.50 up on the night. Achieved by popping in that last £200 of luck pushing investment.
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I've been in negative territory on average for these last 12 or so days. Chasing losses worked - This time.
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Still. I'm a lucky fool.

Comments

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Feb 06, 2016

As long as you know it was luck, and as long as you know the more you keep playing, the harder it is for Luck to save you.



Keep us posted.

OnceDear
OnceDear Feb 06, 2016

Oh Yes. It is indeed luck.

I suspect that it's possible that simply by increasing my wagering levels I'm effectively getting the benefit of a negative progression where I come out ahead frequently . . Until one day, I won't.

This was one such scrape where only the luck accompanying that last £200 saved a disastrous couple of weeks.



Current Rolling Lifetime (26 months) profit now over £12,500. which would have been a teasing target if I were not already there. Charts to be updated soon.

ukaserex
ukaserex Feb 09, 2016

I can easily confess to chasing a loss. I do this (on a smaller scale) routinely.



I have upped my recent cap from $400 per gaming trip to $500.



I try very hard to only play Aces and Faces, or alternatively, Jacks or Better, depending on if I can find 6/9 JoB or 5/7 A&F.



Some players toss in a 100, I toss in two twenties when playing at $1 denomination, 5 credit bet. I believe that if I had thousands, I could sit at the same machine and wait for quads and jackpots to hit. But - I'm only coming in with 5 bills, so if the machine is "unlucky" or "cold" or whatever, I can't risk hundreds. I want to play it until I get a full house, and then hope I'm over my initial cash-in.



Sometimes it works. And, as you know, sometimes, it doesn't.



I go to the next machine.



4 machines in a row! Down $160!!!



(silent expletives follow)



Next machine. A nice straight off the top.

Another one!



Trips!



Garbage, the draw returns two pair.



etc.



Cash out with full house at $80.



I want to keep playing this machine until I lose three in a row. $40 back in.



I lose three in a row! Curses!



Next machine...



So, what I'm saying is - you're not alone with that tendency. Not by a long shot. Those fancy chandeliers were bought from proceeds from people who chase losses.

OnceDear
OnceDear Feb 09, 2016

Quote UKSEREX

"Cash out with full house at $80. I want to keep playing this machine until I lose three in a row. $40 back in."



Maybe that's a difference: I'd be thinking "I want to keep playing until I Win" :o)



Seriously though. With luck and a game with neglible edge, I so far, have always got away with the most absurd outcomes. Winning 10 times or more of one of my buy-ins seems to just happen far too often. I know it's just luck, though lately have suspected a game that is broken in my favour.

Asswhoopermcdaddy
Asswhoopermcdaddy May 14, 2016

Do online casinos actually pay you your money back?

OnceDear
OnceDear May 17, 2016

Yes.



The online casinos that I use have always faithfully transferred any of my withdrawn funds to my bank account within the prescribed timescale of about 5 days.



They did decline to pay me a received bonus once, as they banned me from exploiting their bonuses, but simple withdrawals of funds have been flawless. This chart shows the ebb and flow of funds to my bank account, where I've frequently draw off 1000, 2000, 3000 of winnings, compared to my slightly more frequent deposits of 200, 400, 500 cash funds.

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Jan 22, 2016

Messing with Marty

Here's a report on this last few days messing about with a very watered down d'Alembert style progressive. Maybe someone would be kind enough to tell me if it has a proper name.

Don't try this at home!


In case this post will provoke some negativity I'll start the ball rolling: Martingale, d'Alembert, and similar progressives are just a fun way of losing your money!
Money management and progressive systems can do nothing to diminish a house edge and are as bad an investment strategy as Russian Roulette.

By the same reckoning, such types of progressive betting don't actually make the house edge any worse.

So, what the heck. I just had a few days messing with progressive wagering. This was a pretty watered down d'Alembert.

To add context: The game of choice was online RNG Blackjack (HE<0.4% after comp point credits)

The progression applied was generally 5,10,15,20,25,25,25 with a few wild moments of flat betting 50 when I thought all was lost anyway.

Starting Bankroll was £208 credit in my online account.

Objective.... Well, I guess that it was to recover £**** of what I lost earlier in the month and to have some fun $:o)

Of course, Winning was not to be expected.
No hunches,prayer or superstition: Basic Strategy at each hand. No counting or AP play apart from 0.1% comp credit.

It went pretty well.
( There's an error in the table, in that I encountered an 11 losing hand streak once only)
Because I was progressing timidly, and not rigidly following the progressive, that bad streak barely cost me £200

By OnceDear's rule of thumb, my probability of doing this well was something like 208/2252 or about 9%

For the record, this did fully and comfortably reverse my most recent month of losses. I actually cashed out £1,250 when my balance reached £1,500 so what you see charted is the sum of that cashout+remaining balance
Also, for the record, I'm happy to provide evidence to Mike, any Moderator, or selected other members of my choosing.

Comments

OnceDear
OnceDear Jan 23, 2016

Footnote:

OK. With £1k in my account, and feeling smug, I figured I'd push for another £100 doing more of the same.



SHEESH! I soon regretted that.



Estimated Probability of £1100 being hit before £0 an estimated 1000/1100 =90%

Not wanting to jeopardise all £1000, I penciled in Probability of hitting £1100 before £500 = 500/600=83%



1000.

up gently

1025

up a bit more

1056



Streaks from hell. . .

Down ( not every bet detailed here, just the theme)

1000

900

800

750 (Odds now stacked against me)

700

600 Sweating a bit, will I cut my losses if I hit 500?

498 (Don't ask) Yes. resigned to quitting while behind. Start flat betting 25s and 50s A few doubles work, a few don't. Volatility all over the place.

458

398

348. Oh to hell with it. Let's pray I get back to 500 where I'll call it quits

448

498

548

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Keep going

748

hmmmm. This is exciting

848

900

1000 Whoop whoop whoop. I survived. Now, where was I? Don't want to go there again.

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Bobble about a bit between 900 and 1050

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1100



Objective met.

That was bloody stupid. It could have gone oh so badly.

Once again, Oncedear is a lucky tit.

Shall I push for another 150 to bring it to a nice round £1250?

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Well, of course I did. With £1100 of firepower, £1250 was just a short stroll away.

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And I made it. Current balance £1253.50



Enough. pack it in OnceDear, silly sod.

SOOPOO
SOOPOO Jan 23, 2016

Congrats! Of course some people win with progressive systems some of the time! Have you actually cashed out?

OnceDear
OnceDear Jan 23, 2016

Thanks,



Yes, have cashed out the £1003 leaving me 250 to play with.



So, over the course of the last few days a deposit of £200 (+ 8 of comp money) became £1250 of cashout, another £1003 of cashout and a residual balance of £250.50



Not bad for a stupid losing 'system'. YES. I confirm and assert my belief that this is a losing system. Doesn't stop it being fun.



Of course there is a tiny bit of selective reporting here. I did not post much detail last time I lost. But overall, I'm still way ahead. Will update the charts below later.

teddys
teddys Jan 23, 2016

What a lucky tit you are!

OnceDear
OnceDear Jan 23, 2016

Yeah, Thanks Teddy. I'm certainly lucky and I guess I do gamble like a tit by my own admission.

Check out the updated graphs in the initial post below. You'll see that this lucky streak just about overcame my steep losses for earlier in the month.

On a serious note, I'm conscious that I am tending to increase the amount wagered each session and each buy in. That could be working as a sort of loss chasing exercise which is not unlike what a Marty does. I'm not generally chasing losses, but I am conscious that I'm setting myself up the potential to make some big ones. That bankroll chart in my first post does make the 12K total profit look an appealing and achievable target ( 80 - 90% probability if I put my whole bankroll at risk against it). But I won't be doing that.

Incidentally I chucked away that residual £250 after getting it over £600 and pressing on. Taking a long break from it now.

OnceDear
OnceDear Jan 24, 2016

Is there no end to this madness?

Having chucked away the residual £250, I credited £300 with which to try to win it back. What we Brits call a mugs game.



Similar game play, mostly 5 - 10 - 15 -20 - 25 -25 with the odd moment of madness.



Kept playing till balance £550. Withdrew £450 leaving residual £100



Played that residual £100 till balance £508.50. Withdrew £408 leaving £100.50



Wagered £0.50 at low stakes roulette.



Cashed out remaining balance of £101



I'm starting to think this RNG Blackjack loves me or is trying to lull me into a false sense of security... Nay invincibility $:o)



Re-updated the charts to show that I did indeed crack that £12K profit line.



REALLY MUST Pack it in now and 'do a Mendelson' and quit while I'm ahead.



Yeah. I know, Progressives don't work.

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Dec 04, 2015

A Matter of Scale

It's funny how the scale of wagering can work out:-

Tonight at my local joint, I was playing my usual min stakes BJ for an hour or so when an atypically high rolling visitor joined the table. This is a small provincial place.
I'd bought in for £50 and he bought in for £300. That's a big initial buy-in for this game :)
I staked £3 to £5 per hand, he was staking about £100 into each of two boxes, paying very little attention to his wagers. It lasted moments and he went to the ATM for a few more hundred. At one time he had his entire bankroll sat in a playing box, but halted just in time to say that wasn't meant as a wager. He was over-wagering like a complete jerk, so much so that the duty manager came over and asked if he 'was new to the game and needed any help.'
I'd been there about 20 minutes before him, just messing around, but he was Mr flamboyant. I thought maybe he would be entertaining to watch, as a guy with more money than sense. Maybe he would win big.
Anyway, I soon left the table to cash out and we met at the cash desk. "Did you win,?" he said. I showed him that I was cashing out £101.50, 6 pathetic chips. So I said, 'Yeah: I doubled my money again*. . . . He handed his Visa card to the cashier and bought another £1K of £100 chips. I hung around just another 15 minutes, to watch him play. His money was gone in a flash.

Fact is, that I enjoyed my £50 victory. I wonder how he's feeling now.

* it's what I do once a week or so. Buy in £50 or so and walk out if I lose it, double it, maybe triple it, or occasionally just survive an hour with it. They do good bar food. :)

I have no problem being a small fish, after all it's mostly -ev

Comments

teddys
teddys Dec 09, 2015

I kind of imagine your stories like an Andy Capp cartoon. Does your wife come down to the casino and bop you on the head with a rolling pin and drag you back home?



I miss that comic strip.

OnceDear
OnceDear Dec 09, 2015

She would if she knew I was there

:)

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Nov 08, 2015

I Just Couldn't Stay Away

After my previous post, I've been boycotting my online casino of choice. I lasted a couple of weeks, during which time I've dabbled with another one.

But tonight I was just in the mood for a bit of online RNG Blackjack. Hardly a trip report, but I found it amusing

So sod it... I banged £50 credit in.
Played a while and clambered up to £102.50 Whoop Whoop: I doubled it
and then I lost it all. Drat! What a silly arse.

What the hell. Popped in another £50
Played a while and clambered up to £225.50 Whoop Whoop: I recovered it all and quadrupled my buy in.
and then, like a tit, I lost it all. Drat! That's me £100 in the hole.

What the hell. Popped in another £50
Played a while and clambered up to £95. Hmm could have been better.
and then I lost it all. Drat! That's me £150 in the hole.

What the hell. Popped in another £50. That's got to be it. Losing £200 was about to upset me.
Played a while and clambered up to £400
Cashed out my £400 for a nice recovery and £200 profit..

PHEW! What a lucky tit I am.

Comments

TheGrimReaper13
TheGrimReaper13 Nov 10, 2015

"One grain of luck sometimes worth more than whole rice field of wisdom." (Charlie Chan at the Circus)



Unless, of course, the one grain of luck is the whole field of wisdom. (The knowledge of luck.)

teddys
teddys Nov 12, 2015

I did the exact same thing recently. Except I didn't win in the end. I lost it all. And it was more than you. But not much more.

OnceDear
OnceDear Nov 13, 2015

Of course, the profit was short lived in my case. Stupidity prevailed.

TheGrimReaper13
TheGrimReaper13 Nov 14, 2015

You guys!

OnceDear
OnceDear Nov 14, 2015

In subsequent similar sessions, I won it back and more.

Then I lost it back and even more.

Then won it back and even more: I'm still a lucky fool :o)

Last 3 days up about £850. Charts below updated to show the roller coaster.

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Oct 21, 2015

Punished for Bonus Exploitation

Well. That will save me some time and money!

In my previous blog post, I illustrated how lucky I've been in increasing my online bankroll. £100 to £6,000 on day 1 followed by a steady decline of most of that, followed in turn by a recent rapid ascent to eventually reach 10K. All with Blackjack, and a lot of good fortune. Bonuses were helpful, but much of the winnings was at normal RNG blackjack which I was getting a taste for -EV by about 0.55%

Along the way I've managed to profit by playing through and winning from some Blackjack bonus cards of typically 50 to 150.
But now it ends.

I suppose I suspected that I was out of favour the last few times I made cash deposits. With each deposit, an automated chat box would pop up telling me to start chat to discuss the great deposit bonuses that would be open to me..... But recently, each time has been followed by a sheepish live operator telling me that no deposit bonus was available at that time. Oh-hum, I NEVER accepted them anyway.

The only bonuses that I had interest in were the bonus cards added to the shoe. I'd hang around at the live play tables and play my 50 per hand when bonuses in play. I'd try to just take one bonus per day on up to 15 days of the month.

But last week a 150 bonus did not get credited and I queried why.

Here's the reply, redacted just a little.

Quote: my online casino



This email is to inform you that we have made a decision to deny you from obtaining any promotional bonuses from us in the future.

Well Screw you, casino. You won't now be getting any of my remaining winnings back, as you were sure to do soon enough.
Just as I was starting to get addicted to a -EV game.

Comments

OnceDear
OnceDear Oct 22, 2015

Quote:



"which is highly inconsistent with our philosophy of rewarding players who take risks and enjoy gambling."





="which is inconsistent with our encouragement of LOSERS"

teddys
teddys Oct 23, 2015

What is that typical British passive-aggressive nonsense at the end?



Maybe you shouldn't have been so aggro with the bonuses. It's tough to toe the line between being a player who the casinos want to keep and a consistent winner. Eventually you will be shut down. Oh well, plenty of other casinos.

OnceDear
OnceDear Oct 24, 2015

Quote:

What is that typical British passive-aggressive nonsense at the end?



Not aggressive. I was just expressing mild irritation. They've reneged on a 150 bonus that they should have just given me and told me was my last.

Quote:

Maybe you shouldn't have been so aggro with the bonuses.



Very probably. I always knew I was pushing my luck, while staying within their own rules. I always new they had a catch-all rule "We can dump on you when we feel like it" I also had a rule: " I can stop playing here when I like." They invoked theirs - I invoked mine.

Quote:

Eventually you will be shut down. Oh well, plenty of other casinos.

Indeed.

teddys
teddys Oct 25, 2015

I meant the last line of their response.

beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs Nov 14, 2015

Let me get this straight. You were depositing money each time. You were using bonuses freely offered. You were doing well with them on a -EV game. So now you're no longer welcome?



Really? Idiots. How exactly is taking a bonus "abusing" it? Why the hell do they offer it if they don't want people to use it? Just stupid.

OnceDear
OnceDear Nov 15, 2015

That's pretty much it BBB.

Their rules permitted me to receive up to 15 bonus cards per month worth up to a total of £2000. It was a clear, written and reasonable limit All I had to do to receive them was to be playing (live dealer £50 minimum BJ) during the time that the cards were in the shoe, and that was no secret. So, that's what I did, hung around till the chance to get a bonus card was high and collected a few. After that, it was just a matter of staying lucky long enough to play through wagering requirements of those bonuses. I managed to do that a few times, thus making and withdrawing some money at what was a low house edge -ev game.

Their perception was that I was abusing good faith and benefiting unfairly. At no point did I attempt to exceed their stated numerical limits, nor did I cheat in any way. I just vultured a freebee.

Fact is, I was in a -EV game that was rendered +EV by using their generosity carefully.

I suppose they expected the recipients of these bonuses to manage them badly and get wiped out by wagering requirements, which would likely happen to most. It's not may fault that the bonus funds were eligible to use to win more bonus cards, thus making a virtuous circle possible.

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OnceDear
OnceDear Nov 15, 2015

As it happens, those bonus cards netted me a modest sum when compared to my perfectly bonus free periods where luck was firmly on my side.