OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Apr 02, 2021

I Lost £35k in 30 mins

And I really don't care.

Sort of a shortest ever trip report.

Recall a few weeks back I was in an online roulette tournament during which I turned £10,000 buy in to £20,100 over 3 hours.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/#post2255
That got me a tournament prize, but I subsequently discovered that I could use my bankroll to play online live dealer Blackjack.
And so it was, that over the course of the week, I took my £20,100 balance down to about £350 and then back up to £25,000. Quite a roller coaster!
And so today, with aggressive wagering of about £1,000 to £5,000 per hand, I got my bankroll/balance to over £35K.
Not bad when it had been as low as £350 or so.
Anyhow, tonight, over the course of about 30 minutes, I lost the lot. It was fun and had one amusing consequence.....
..... While at the live player table, I won two lucky Easter draws worth a total of £40. I asked the promo host to assign them to another player ID at the table. A min better :) Made his day. After all, I could not withdraw those bonuses, no more than I could withdraw my balance when it had been £35K
Glad it was only pretend money I lost. I.e. the proceeds of my £10k Pretend money buy-in from the tourney.

Comments

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Apr 03, 2021

whew! [not that I was really worried]

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Apr 02, 2021

77 Winning Sessions :o)

Well. It's true. And the truth shall set you free.

Previous blog posts had showed a couple of periods where my bankroll had ascended in roughly straight lines over 45 (now 47) consecutive winning sessions, and later over 32 (now 33) consecutive winning sessions. For those periods of play, I'd been shaping the chart by deliberately 'Hitting and running' for about £50 per session and had been progressively chasing losses with some increasing buy-ins and increasing wagers. As I call it, 'Martingale at the Buy-in level'
I acknowledged all along that these were truthful reports, but selectively reported.
So, in the interests of full disclosure, I'll now show what has hitherto been too boring to show.
Between those monster winning streaks, there was a period of less steady progress. A dreadful downward period During that intermediate period, I'd been less focussed on shaping the chart with progressively bigger buy-ins and loss chasing. But there wasn't actually much difference in my level or style of play. I'd tended to cap my buy-ins to £250 during that time and did not tend to be as aggressive in playing catch up. Two typical bad streaks were when I went
-100,-250,-250,-250,-250,-250,-100 Buy-ins
Before a modest winning session
and another time...
-100, -100, -150, -250,-250 Buy-ins
32.26 Cashout (some lose change from slots)
-75, -125, -250,-250 Buy-ins
400.60 Cashout

Anyhow. Here's the chart showing how the three 'periods of play' fit together.


The observant will note that the y axis has different values to the previous chart. That's not a lie, it was just a bit of rebasing of the starting value to make the chart look nice. This chart shows what I consider to be my 'lifetime' gambling bankroll, which is still ahead overall. But then again, 'Lifetime bankroll' is with the benefit of some AP exploits.

Comments

OnceDear
OnceDear Apr 02, 2021

Looking back, I know that although 'hit and run' means nothing and 'sessions' mean nothing, it occurs to me that there is something still weird about those two successes. I'll analyse at wager level, what went on in the intermediate session, where I seem to recall I was throwing down more bets of >£50 rather than grinding away with 5, 10, 15, 20 etc.

It might just be, and I don't rule out, there's possibility an anomaly in the RNG Blackjack that I was playing. Almost like it gave a different house edge at different playing levels, such that it was baiting me with generosity at the lower wager level and then whacking me when I ramped up. Such behaviour would be outrageous and surely outside of regulated acceptability. If true, it COULD maybe be exploitable??? Inviting AP's to PM me if they care to analyse and comment further.

OnceDear
OnceDear Apr 02, 2021

OMFG. I think I've spotted it. During my winning sessions, I was ALMOST exclusively playing a certain RNG blackjack at my favourite online casino. But for the losing period of play, I was mostly playing a different variant at two of my other casinos. It looks to be that the bulk of lost money was at my second and third choice casinos.

Belay that. It was all the same casino, but maybe a different game variant.

Preceding the first uptrend WAS a different casino.



Definitely time to investigate further!!!!!

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Apr 02, 2021

when the wizard was testing betting systems, making videos, it is true that the charts would often look like this, with stretches where the trend was consistently up or down. We have to figure there was no RNG manip in those

it is definitely something that hits you: surely there is a way to discern where the trend is going! but no one can do it.

OnceDear
OnceDear Apr 02, 2021

The shape of the chart 'Ramp and plummet' for the first and third segments was pretty much under my control, though when a plummet would occur was and always would be a mystery.

For the middle section, I was not particularly adhering to any system, hence the more random walk. It's just a bit anomalous that I escaped the plummeting and just had the random downtrend when not bothering.



Marty Ramp and Plummet charts.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/21359-debunking-roulette-marty-with-pictures/

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Mar 26, 2021

Online Roulette Tournament

Just a little note about an online casino free Roulette Tournament which I was invited to this week.

This promotion was from a UK mainstream online casino. It seems it was by invitation only to some regular customers, particularly it's 'Black Card' qualified members.
It had a cash prize of £1,500 and 14 further prizes of £100 to £1000 in free play for the players who ended the session with the top 15 bankrolls. Players were given a 'pretend' balance of £10,000 to play with. Not withdrawable, of course.
Promo Rules and Prizes
There was supposed to be a live leader board and two of the live online roulette tables were open for play.
At the same time as we tournament players were competing with our pretend money, there were real players with their real balance, also playing those tables. I guess we looked like high rollers to them.
Now. There was one big issue: The live leader board did not exist! A call to live help confirmed that they had messed up. So, we unknown number of tournament contestants were flying a bit blind as we could not know our ranking. We could see the top wins as they were being reported for each spin, we could not see what wagers were being placed. The tourney was over 3 hours.
Anyway, by using the chat feature, a few of us discussed trying to form our own rough idea of a leader board. From the win reports by spin, I figured that maybe 3 of us were picking up spin prizes of as high as £60,000 and that there were about 30-50 of us competing. I resolved to have fun and aspire to a minor prize of maybe 100 or £150 of free play. To do that, I estimated that I just needed to play through once and end the session with my £10k intact. As I messed about with £100 to £800 progressive wagers, I managed to get to £20,100 balance. There were still a few players picking up £40k wins, so I did not aspire to win first prize. So there I was. at the end of 3 hours with £20,100 of pretend balance. Results were to be announced next day.
Now here's where something funny happened: Using the casino 'lobby feature' I found I could take my bankroll to a live dealer BlackJack game, with a couple of pleasant dealers. So I whacked out some £5000 max bets and a few £500-$2000 marty bets. I played into the night, ebbing and flowing to end again with about £20k. Went to bed.
Next Day, I logged into the tourney page again and again went to the BJ table. I had hours of fun and chat with the dealers. At one time, i put down 4 consecutive £5,000 bets and lost them all, bringing my balance to about £300. Oh hum. I played on, messing with all sorts of BJ and roulette wagers and would you believe, I got back to £20,000. I even played worst strategy variations and still won. LOL. If only I could cash out. That £300 to £20,000 climb was the stuff of legends. It was funny chatting to simultaneous real money players who thought they were in the presence of a true high roller.
Meanwhile, I received notification that I had indeed won a prize of £150 free play meaning I must have been in the top 10. YAYYY.
I can report that I met the onerous wagering requirements to actually cash out £151 of real money!!!! Result. Many hours of fun and £151 cash prize. And I still have that £20,000 of pretend bankroll that I can take back to the roulette and blackjack tables to mess about with.
Next Time, I do so hope they have a leaderboard. It would make for a whole different experience. Actually, I hope the next invitation tourney is BlackJack.

Comments

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Mar 26, 2021

Interesting. No leader board ? what a hoot!

OnceDear
OnceDear Mar 26, 2021

Yes. Lack of leaderboard meant a lot of guesswork and even a bit of teamwork. But I managed to get in the top ten.

With a leader board I might have been more aggressive in chasing the top prize. As it happened, the prizes for 2 - 15 were more valuable than stated in the rules because of a casino anomaly $:o)

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Mar 22, 2021

Now 32 More Winning Sessions

Updated.
I thought I'd report my recent amusement at an online casino over the last month or so.
This reports my success at having roughly one winning session per day and no losing sessions at all. Most days I elected to win £50, though there were a few where I took more or settled for less.

This is similar, but not as extreme as where I previously reported 45 consecutive winning sessions.

Of course, these were low stakes, but it's real money won with no editing out of uncomfortable details.....

Now, most days I bought in for £100 and tried to win my way up to £150. When that worked, I ended the session and cashed out.
On the occasions where I lost that £100, I'd buy in for another £250 and play on until I'd got £400 and then I'd cash out. Had it happened that I'd lost that second buy in, I'd have bought in for an additional £250 and played on until I could cash out £650 for my £50 session profit.

There were a few incidental bonuses and wagers for small change, hence cashouts were sometimes not whole pounds.

Underlying game was an RNG Atlantic City Blackjack variant. No card counting, typically playing 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 progression.
No Player advantage.

Here's the table of buy-ins (shown as negative numbers) and cashouts.
DateCash-out (Buy-in)Bankroll
3/5600
3/6-100500
3/6-250250
3/6400650
3/10-125525
3/10-250275
3/10435.68710.68
3/1110.8721.48
3/1211732.48
3/12-100632.48
3/12-250382.48
3/12400.1782.58
3/12-250532.58
3/135001032.58
3/13-100932.58
3/14150.51083.08
3/14-100983.08
3/151501133.08
3/16-1001033.08
3/16150.481183.56
3/16-1001083.56
3/171501233.56
3/17-1001133.56
3/17-250883.56
3/17400.51284.06
3/18-1001184.06
3/18-250934.06
3/184501384.06
3/18-1001284.06
3/19151.51435.56
3/19-1001335.56
3/20-2501085.56
3/20402.491488.05
3/21-1001388.05
3/21-1501238.05
3/21400.871638.92
3/22-1001538.92
3/22150.51689.42
3/22-1001589.42
3/22-2501339.42
3/22400.51739.92
3/22-1001639.92
3/221561795.92
3/22-2501545.92
3/223511896.92
3/23-2501646.92
3/233542000.92
3/23-150185.92
3/23200.52051.42
3/24-1001951.42
3/24-2501701.42
3/244062107.42
3/24151.502258.92
3/25-1002158.92
3/25150.502309.42
3/26-1002209.42
3/27200.602410.02
3/27-1002310.02
3/27-2502060.02
3/274002460.02
3/28-1002310.02
3/28-2502060.02
3/28-2501860.02
3/28-5001360.52
3/291150.502510.52
3/29-1002410.52
3/29150.842561.36
3/30-1002461.36
3/30-2502211.36
3/30400.612611.97
3/30-1002511.97
3/30-2502251.97
3/314002661.97
3/31-1002561.97
3/311502711.97
3/31-1002611.97
3/31-1002511.97
3/31252.502764.47
3/31-1002664.47
3/31152.502816.97


Here's the bankroll chart where you will see I turned £600 into £2051... to be updated ...to... £2816.97

Comments

OnceDear
OnceDear Mar 22, 2021

Pressed on with another £250 deposit and £351 withdrawal to bring me to 18 winning sessions.

Now, I've tripled my 600 bankroll. Expect another session...

OnceDear
OnceDear Mar 22, 2021

LMAO.

Couldn't resist. Deposited another £250 and cashed out £354 to bring me to 19 consecutive winning sessions. Will I go for 20?



Probably.

OnceDear
OnceDear Mar 22, 2021

Well. It would have been rude not to...

Deposited another £150 and played it up to £200.50 for a twentieth consecutive winning session and a profit of >£1400



Peanuts, but several hours of fun online.



Definitely taking a break from Blackjack. UK lockdown ends soon, so funds set aside for summer fun.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Mar 26, 2021

yep, here we go again!

OnceDear
OnceDear Mar 26, 2021

Onwards and upwards to 23 consecutive winning sessions, including one freeroll with my roulette tourney winnings.

Seems inevitable I'll try to reach 25.

Of course, this is true, but selective reporting.

OnceDear
OnceDear Mar 26, 2021

Well, I made it to 25 sessions. But it was harem scarem with the last one which required a follow up buy-in of 250 so that I could split AND double a hand of £25. Fortunately won both hands. I would have hated to have to have done a follow up buy-in just to try to get the 25



Will update chart later.

Will NOT be doing this again for a while.



What you dont see before this graph was the absolute carnage of many big losing sessions.

OnceDear
OnceDear Mar 28, 2021

And there it ended! Session 26 was a bust!

Bought in 100: Lost it

Bought in 250: Lost it

Bought in 250: Lost it.



That was the only session that required the third buy in and I just refuse to do another.

Fun over for a net profit of £1100. It had been £1700

OnceDear
OnceDear Mar 28, 2021

What a ploppy!

So, for the first time in this exercise, I'd lost two buy-ins totalling £350 and then lost the third of £250 bringing a lost buy-in of £600

Only a complete fool would buy in another £500 for a total of £1100.



I Did.

Ebbed and flowed, down as low as about 300 until I cashed out..... £1150.50



So, technically 26 winning sessions. Chart to be updated later.

But really, it was abject stupidity and the FACT that if you put a big enough bankroll at risk, then you'll probably make £50 a few times.



It's no big deal. Not a winning proposition and just a bit of fun.....



And still i don't wish to chart the dreadful losses that preceded these few sessions, nor those which will likely follow them.

OnceDear
OnceDear Mar 31, 2021

After a brief rest.... Some more sessions, bringing me to 32 Consecutive winning sessions.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Apr 01, 2021

that is a steady 'averaged' line there my friend

OnceDear
OnceDear Apr 02, 2021

"Steady averaged line" Hmmmm. This chart epitomises martingale. It just doesn't yet show the eventual oblivion.

When I needed 4 progressively higher buy-ins to recover that £1150, I knew I was in real jeopardy. If that one had gone bad (at a > 50% probability) I'd have had to throw another £1000 down wiping out the whole exercise. I make no bones about it that this is basically martingale at the session level. A dumb but fun way to lose money.

I might complete the picture a bit by showing the bankroll's dreadful death spiral preceding session 1.

As I said, this is an illustration of selective reporting..

ps. did another session last night. 100 to 143 then the website failed so I cashed out early.

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Sep 08, 2020

Now 45 Winning Sessions $:o)

Posted because it amuses me.

I sometimes post about long streaks of winning sessions, such as when I had 34 consecutive winning sessions.

Today I report my progress on another great streak, having won a trivial £50 or more, on each of my 41 most recent consecutive online sessions. Not One Losing session since mid June and a profit of >£2.4k.

Proof available to moderators and selected members.

Anyhow, here's the bankroll chart. It shows all 41 sessions over the period 8th June to 8th Sept. typically 1 to 10 sessions per week.

It was recreational RNG Blackjack play, with no card counting, no bonuses and no advantage. It was a -EV situation.

Here's how each session went:-
I'd log in, typically at the end of the day and settle down to play about 30 mins to an hour.
I'd credit £100 to my online account and then play RNG Atlantic City Blackjack. Initial wagering was typically a 2,4,6,8,10,15,20,25 progressive. If my balance reached £150, I'd cash out and go to bed.
If I lost that £100 buy in, I'd credit another £250 and attempt to claw my balance up to £400 to give me that £50 profit. With these funds, I'd typically play 10,20,30,30 progressive. Max wager would be a £30, doubling or splitting a few times. If my balance reached £400, I'd cash out and go to bed.
But sometimes I'd lose that second buy in, leaving me £350 in the hole. (3 times) $:o( Then I'd buy in with another £250 and attempt to claw back up to £650. I was lucky. It wasn't outrageously lucky, but I never needed to make a fourth buy in.... So I can't say what I'd have done for a fourth buy in. I'd probably have quit playing for a few weeks and NOT made this blog post, or at least have posted the bad outcome as a warning. Or I MIGHT have bought in for £500 and tried to claw back to £1150.... But probably not.

This is, of course Selective reporting... It's an easy trick!
You don't get to see the carnage before or after these sessions $:o)




*I do mess with progressive wagering for fun, and I can easily afford it. Don't try this at home and expect to win. OnceDear was a lucky tit this time. It's not always so. Not by a long stretch.

Comments

ChumpChange
ChumpChange Sep 08, 2020

So are you gonna double your bets after you win 72 times? It takes 12 wins for a new buy-in. So get 5 buy-ins ahead and tack 1 on for a double-up session.

OnceDear
OnceDear Sep 09, 2020

Hi ChumpChange: Thanks for the question/suggestion.

TLDR: In a word no! It would be insane to increase my buy-ins.

This was recreational, and I was quite lucky to end up ahead. I never needed to make a 4th buy-in, or a 5th or 6th.... That chasing of losses would have been increasingly desperate and stupid. Remember, I did say that this was selective reporting $:o)

The way I increased my buy-ins into any session that initially lost, is, of course, similar to martingaling but at the buy in level, rather than the wager level. If we take the initial buy-in of £100, I had approx (100/150) = 66.7% chance of simply hitting my £50 profit goal immediately and 33.3% chance of having to make the follow up £250 buy-in #2. *

Now, with that second buy-in and new win goal of (100+250+50)=400 I had (250/400)=62.5% * chance of hitting my goal and 37.5% chance of having to make yet another buy-in #3. *

Then with that third buy-in and new win goal of (100+250+250+50)=650 I had (250/650)=38.5% * chance of hitting goal and 61.5% chance of having to make yet another buy-in #4.....

And by now I'd be in the hole for £600, facing the need to massively increase my buy in even for a 50% chance of survival! That's how progressive betting kills. That's why it's only ever worth doing for amusement value with expendable funds.

I was lucky. For any individual session, the chance of finding myself losing all of buy-in #3 was roughly...

0.333*0.375*0.61= 7.6% ( 1 in 13 )

So over the 41 sessions that I completed, my chance of NOT having to make a 4th buy-in at any time was (1-0.076)^41= 4% and the chance of having to make buy-in #4 at some point was about 96%*

I played Russian roulette with a 13 chamber revolver and dodged the bullet 41 times!!!!

I did say that this was selective reporting! I've played similar bunches of sessions in the past and lost back all profits and more when buy-in #4 has been quickly needed and was a choice of £500+ or walk away bruised. I usually walk away bruised. :o)



* All maths are approximate and ignore the 0.35% house edge of the underlying game.

I used OnceDear's Rule of Thumb in estimating probabilities.

OnceDear
OnceDear Sep 10, 2020

I skipped playing yesterday.

But it would be rude not to.....

Loaded up the single chamber in the 13 chamber hypothetical revolver

Pointed at temple.

.

.

Click.

Phew

Tonight it was buy in £100: Lose £85 of that : Buy in £250: Claw balance up to £400: Cash out.



It was notable that I quickly got to £395 but then briefly lost my way down to £348 before clambering back to £400



[NOTE: This is a dumb-ass recreational way of losing money]

OnceDear
OnceDear Sep 11, 2020

Once again: It would have been rude not to

Buy-in £100: Cash out £151.50. Never went below £80

So now I have 43 consecutive winning sessions of >=£50 profit each time. Subject edited. Chart to be updated later.

I wonder if 50 sessions will be achieved? Watch this space.

OnceDear
OnceDear Sep 11, 2020

Another Day, Another Dollar.



Tonight's session went smoothly. Bought in for £100. Played about 30 mins. Cashed out £150 dead.



Brings me to session 44. 50 is beckoning. Will I make it?

OnceDear
OnceDear Sep 11, 2020

Second session of this Friday Evening



Bought in £100

Played about 30 mins, slightly aggressive at 5,10,15 progressive till I had 140 or more then 1,2,3,4,5 progressive.

Cashed out £150.50



How can I resist trying for 50 sessions? Glad I didn't have to dip into secondary buy-in. Sort of inevitable if I have 5 more tries.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Oct 09, 2020

I haven't stayed up to date with blogs and just saw this



is it possible you have benefited from a manipulated algorithm that allows you to win a little bit at low stakes, planning to clobber you when you decide to raise your bet level and 'go for it'? I've heard that claim from others

OnceDear
OnceDear Oct 10, 2020

I've thought that myself, but I doubt it.

You don't get to see what happened on the next few similar sessions :)

Let's just say, I haven't given it all back, yet.