77 Winning Sessions :o)
Well. It's true. And the truth shall set you free.Previous blog posts had showed a couple of periods where my bankroll had ascended in roughly straight lines over 45 (now 47) consecutive winning sessions, and later over 32 (now 33) consecutive winning sessions. For those periods of play, I'd been shaping the chart by deliberately 'Hitting and running' for about £50 per session and had been progressively chasing losses with some increasing buy-ins and increasing wagers. As I call it, 'Martingale at the Buy-in level'
I acknowledged all along that these were truthful reports, but selectively reported.
So, in the interests of full disclosure, I'll now show what has hitherto been too boring to show.
Between those monster winning streaks, there was a period of less steady progress. A dreadful downward period During that intermediate period, I'd been less focussed on shaping the chart with progressively bigger buy-ins and loss chasing. But there wasn't actually much difference in my level or style of play. I'd tended to cap my buy-ins to £250 during that time and did not tend to be as aggressive in playing catch up. Two typical bad streaks were when I went
-100,-250,-250,-250,-250,-250,-100 Buy-ins
Before a modest winning session
and another time...
-100, -100, -150, -250,-250 Buy-ins
32.26 Cashout (some lose change from slots)
-75, -125, -250,-250 Buy-ins
400.60 Cashout
Anyhow. Here's the chart showing how the three 'periods of play' fit together.
The observant will note that the y axis has different values to the previous chart. That's not a lie, it was just a bit of rebasing of the starting value to make the chart look nice. This chart shows what I consider to be my 'lifetime' gambling bankroll, which is still ahead overall. But then again, 'Lifetime bankroll' is with the benefit of some AP exploits.
Online Roulette Tournament
Just a little note about an online casino free Roulette Tournament which I was invited to this week.This promotion was from a UK mainstream online casino. It seems it was by invitation only to some regular customers, particularly it's 'Black Card' qualified members.
It had a cash prize of £1,500 and 14 further prizes of £100 to £1000 in free play for the players who ended the session with the top 15 bankrolls. Players were given a 'pretend' balance of £10,000 to play with. Not withdrawable, of course.
Promo Rules and Prizes
There was supposed to be a live leader board and two of the live online roulette tables were open for play.
At the same time as we tournament players were competing with our pretend money, there were real players with their real balance, also playing those tables. I guess we looked like high rollers to them.
Now. There was one big issue: The live leader board did not exist! A call to live help confirmed that they had messed up. So, we unknown number of tournament contestants were flying a bit blind as we could not know our ranking. We could see the top wins as they were being reported for each spin, we could not see what wagers were being placed. The tourney was over 3 hours.
Anyway, by using the chat feature, a few of us discussed trying to form our own rough idea of a leader board. From the win reports by spin, I figured that maybe 3 of us were picking up spin prizes of as high as £60,000 and that there were about 30-50 of us competing. I resolved to have fun and aspire to a minor prize of maybe 100 or £150 of free play. To do that, I estimated that I just needed to play through once and end the session with my £10k intact. As I messed about with £100 to £800 progressive wagers, I managed to get to £20,100 balance. There were still a few players picking up £40k wins, so I did not aspire to win first prize. So there I was. at the end of 3 hours with £20,100 of pretend balance. Results were to be announced next day.
Now here's where something funny happened: Using the casino 'lobby feature' I found I could take my bankroll to a live dealer BlackJack game, with a couple of pleasant dealers. So I whacked out some £5000 max bets and a few £500-$2000 marty bets. I played into the night, ebbing and flowing to end again with about £20k. Went to bed.
Next Day, I logged into the tourney page again and again went to the BJ table. I had hours of fun and chat with the dealers. At one time, i put down 4 consecutive £5,000 bets and lost them all, bringing my balance to about £300. Oh hum. I played on, messing with all sorts of BJ and roulette wagers and would you believe, I got back to £20,000. I even played worst strategy variations and still won. LOL. If only I could cash out. That £300 to £20,000 climb was the stuff of legends. It was funny chatting to simultaneous real money players who thought they were in the presence of a true high roller.
Meanwhile, I received notification that I had indeed won a prize of £150 free play meaning I must have been in the top 10. YAYYY.
I can report that I met the onerous wagering requirements to actually cash out £151 of real money!!!! Result. Many hours of fun and £151 cash prize. And I still have that £20,000 of pretend bankroll that I can take back to the roulette and blackjack tables to mess about with.
Next Time, I do so hope they have a leaderboard. It would make for a whole different experience. Actually, I hope the next invitation tourney is BlackJack.
Comments
Interesting. No leader board ? what a hoot!
Yes. Lack of leaderboard meant a lot of guesswork and even a bit of teamwork. But I managed to get in the top ten.
With a leader board I might have been more aggressive in chasing the top prize. As it happened, the prizes for 2 - 15 were more valuable than stated in the rules because of a casino anomaly $:o)
Now 32 More Winning Sessions
Updated.I thought I'd report my recent amusement at an online casino over the last month or so.
This reports my success at having roughly one winning session per day and no losing sessions at all. Most days I elected to win £50, though there were a few where I took more or settled for less.
This is similar, but not as extreme as where I previously reported 45 consecutive winning sessions.
Of course, these were low stakes, but it's real money won with no editing out of uncomfortable details.....
Now, most days I bought in for £100 and tried to win my way up to £150. When that worked, I ended the session and cashed out.
On the occasions where I lost that £100, I'd buy in for another £250 and play on until I'd got £400 and then I'd cash out. Had it happened that I'd lost that second buy in, I'd have bought in for an additional £250 and played on until I could cash out £650 for my £50 session profit.
There were a few incidental bonuses and wagers for small change, hence cashouts were sometimes not whole pounds.
Underlying game was an RNG Atlantic City Blackjack variant. No card counting, typically playing 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 progression.
No Player advantage.
Here's the table of buy-ins (shown as negative numbers) and cashouts.
Date | Cash-out (Buy-in) | Bankroll |
---|---|---|
3/5 | 600 | |
3/6 | -100 | 500 |
3/6 | -250 | 250 |
3/6 | 400 | 650 |
3/10 | -125 | 525 |
3/10 | -250 | 275 |
3/10 | 435.68 | 710.68 |
3/11 | 10.8 | 721.48 |
3/12 | 11 | 732.48 |
3/12 | -100 | 632.48 |
3/12 | -250 | 382.48 |
3/12 | 400.1 | 782.58 |
3/12 | -250 | 532.58 |
3/13 | 500 | 1032.58 |
3/13 | -100 | 932.58 |
3/14 | 150.5 | 1083.08 |
3/14 | -100 | 983.08 |
3/15 | 150 | 1133.08 |
3/16 | -100 | 1033.08 |
3/16 | 150.48 | 1183.56 |
3/16 | -100 | 1083.56 |
3/17 | 150 | 1233.56 |
3/17 | -100 | 1133.56 |
3/17 | -250 | 883.56 |
3/17 | 400.5 | 1284.06 |
3/18 | -100 | 1184.06 |
3/18 | -250 | 934.06 |
3/18 | 450 | 1384.06 |
3/18 | -100 | 1284.06 |
3/19 | 151.5 | 1435.56 |
3/19 | -100 | 1335.56 |
3/20 | -250 | 1085.56 |
3/20 | 402.49 | 1488.05 |
3/21 | -100 | 1388.05 |
3/21 | -150 | 1238.05 |
3/21 | 400.87 | 1638.92 |
3/22 | -100 | 1538.92 |
3/22 | 150.5 | 1689.42 |
3/22 | -100 | 1589.42 |
3/22 | -250 | 1339.42 |
3/22 | 400.5 | 1739.92 |
3/22 | -100 | 1639.92 |
3/22 | 156 | 1795.92 |
3/22 | -250 | 1545.92 |
3/22 | 351 | 1896.92 |
3/23 | -250 | 1646.92 |
3/23 | 354 | 2000.92 |
3/23 | -150 | 185.92 |
3/23 | 200.5 | 2051.42 |
3/24 | -100 | 1951.42 |
3/24 | -250 | 1701.42 |
3/24 | 406 | 2107.42 |
3/24 | 151.50 | 2258.92 |
3/25 | -100 | 2158.92 |
3/25 | 150.50 | 2309.42 |
3/26 | -100 | 2209.42 |
3/27 | 200.60 | 2410.02 |
3/27 | -100 | 2310.02 |
3/27 | -250 | 2060.02 |
3/27 | 400 | 2460.02 |
3/28 | -100 | 2310.02 |
3/28 | -250 | 2060.02 |
3/28 | -250 | 1860.02 |
3/28 | -500 | 1360.52 |
3/29 | 1150.50 | 2510.52 |
3/29 | -100 | 2410.52 |
3/29 | 150.84 | 2561.36 |
3/30 | -100 | 2461.36 |
3/30 | -250 | 2211.36 |
3/30 | 400.61 | 2611.97 |
3/30 | -100 | 2511.97 |
3/30 | -250 | 2251.97 |
3/31 | 400 | 2661.97 |
3/31 | -100 | 2561.97 |
3/31 | 150 | 2711.97 |
3/31 | -100 | 2611.97 |
3/31 | -100 | 2511.97 |
3/31 | 252.50 | 2764.47 |
3/31 | -100 | 2664.47 |
3/31 | 152.50 | 2816.97 |
Here's the bankroll chart where you will see I turned £600 into £2051... to be updated ...to... £2816.97
Comments
Pressed on with another £250 deposit and £351 withdrawal to bring me to 18 winning sessions.
Now, I've tripled my 600 bankroll. Expect another session...
LMAO.
Couldn't resist. Deposited another £250 and cashed out £354 to bring me to 19 consecutive winning sessions. Will I go for 20?
Probably.
Well. It would have been rude not to...
Deposited another £150 and played it up to £200.50 for a twentieth consecutive winning session and a profit of >£1400
Peanuts, but several hours of fun online.
Definitely taking a break from Blackjack. UK lockdown ends soon, so funds set aside for summer fun.
yep, here we go again!
Onwards and upwards to 23 consecutive winning sessions, including one freeroll with my roulette tourney winnings.
Seems inevitable I'll try to reach 25.
Of course, this is true, but selective reporting.
Well, I made it to 25 sessions. But it was harem scarem with the last one which required a follow up buy-in of 250 so that I could split AND double a hand of £25. Fortunately won both hands. I would have hated to have to have done a follow up buy-in just to try to get the 25
Will update chart later.
Will NOT be doing this again for a while.
What you dont see before this graph was the absolute carnage of many big losing sessions.
And there it ended! Session 26 was a bust!
Bought in 100: Lost it
Bought in 250: Lost it
Bought in 250: Lost it.
That was the only session that required the third buy in and I just refuse to do another.
Fun over for a net profit of £1100. It had been £1700
What a ploppy!
So, for the first time in this exercise, I'd lost two buy-ins totalling £350 and then lost the third of £250 bringing a lost buy-in of £600
Only a complete fool would buy in another £500 for a total of £1100.
I Did.
Ebbed and flowed, down as low as about 300 until I cashed out..... £1150.50
So, technically 26 winning sessions. Chart to be updated later.
But really, it was abject stupidity and the FACT that if you put a big enough bankroll at risk, then you'll probably make £50 a few times.
It's no big deal. Not a winning proposition and just a bit of fun.....
And still i don't wish to chart the dreadful losses that preceded these few sessions, nor those which will likely follow them.
After a brief rest.... Some more sessions, bringing me to 32 Consecutive winning sessions.
that is a steady 'averaged' line there my friend
"Steady averaged line" Hmmmm. This chart epitomises martingale. It just doesn't yet show the eventual oblivion.
When I needed 4 progressively higher buy-ins to recover that £1150, I knew I was in real jeopardy. If that one had gone bad (at a > 50% probability) I'd have had to throw another £1000 down wiping out the whole exercise. I make no bones about it that this is basically martingale at the session level. A dumb but fun way to lose money.
I might complete the picture a bit by showing the bankroll's dreadful death spiral preceding session 1.
As I said, this is an illustration of selective reporting..
ps. did another session last night. 100 to 143 then the website failed so I cashed out early.
Now 45 Winning Sessions $:o)
Posted because it amuses me.I sometimes post about long streaks of winning sessions, such as when I had 34 consecutive winning sessions.
Today I report my progress on another great streak, having won a trivial £50 or more, on each of my 41 most recent consecutive online sessions. Not One Losing session since mid June and a profit of >£2.4k.
Proof available to moderators and selected members.
Anyhow, here's the bankroll chart. It shows all 41 sessions over the period 8th June to 8th Sept. typically 1 to 10 sessions per week.
It was recreational RNG Blackjack play, with no card counting, no bonuses and no advantage. It was a -EV situation.
Here's how each session went:-
I'd log in, typically at the end of the day and settle down to play about 30 mins to an hour.
I'd credit £100 to my online account and then play RNG Atlantic City Blackjack. Initial wagering was typically a 2,4,6,8,10,15,20,25 progressive. If my balance reached £150, I'd cash out and go to bed.
If I lost that £100 buy in, I'd credit another £250 and attempt to claw my balance up to £400 to give me that £50 profit. With these funds, I'd typically play 10,20,30,30 progressive. Max wager would be a £30, doubling or splitting a few times. If my balance reached £400, I'd cash out and go to bed.
But sometimes I'd lose that second buy in, leaving me £350 in the hole. (3 times) $:o( Then I'd buy in with another £250 and attempt to claw back up to £650. I was lucky. It wasn't outrageously lucky, but I never needed to make a fourth buy in.... So I can't say what I'd have done for a fourth buy in. I'd probably have quit playing for a few weeks and NOT made this blog post, or at least have posted the bad outcome as a warning. Or I MIGHT have bought in for £500 and tried to claw back to £1150.... But probably not.
This is, of course Selective reporting... It's an easy trick!
You don't get to see the carnage before or after these sessions $:o)
*I do mess with progressive wagering for fun, and I can easily afford it. Don't try this at home and expect to win. OnceDear was a lucky tit this time. It's not always so. Not by a long stretch.
Comments
So are you gonna double your bets after you win 72 times? It takes 12 wins for a new buy-in. So get 5 buy-ins ahead and tack 1 on for a double-up session.
Hi ChumpChange: Thanks for the question/suggestion.
TLDR: In a word no! It would be insane to increase my buy-ins.
This was recreational, and I was quite lucky to end up ahead. I never needed to make a 4th buy-in, or a 5th or 6th.... That chasing of losses would have been increasingly desperate and stupid. Remember, I did say that this was selective reporting $:o)
The way I increased my buy-ins into any session that initially lost, is, of course, similar to martingaling but at the buy in level, rather than the wager level. If we take the initial buy-in of £100, I had approx (100/150) = 66.7% chance of simply hitting my £50 profit goal immediately and 33.3% chance of having to make the follow up £250 buy-in #2. *
Now, with that second buy-in and new win goal of (100+250+50)=400 I had (250/400)=62.5% * chance of hitting my goal and 37.5% chance of having to make yet another buy-in #3. *
Then with that third buy-in and new win goal of (100+250+250+50)=650 I had (250/650)=38.5% * chance of hitting goal and 61.5% chance of having to make yet another buy-in #4.....
And by now I'd be in the hole for £600, facing the need to massively increase my buy in even for a 50% chance of survival! That's how progressive betting kills. That's why it's only ever worth doing for amusement value with expendable funds.
I was lucky. For any individual session, the chance of finding myself losing all of buy-in #3 was roughly...
0.333*0.375*0.61= 7.6% ( 1 in 13 )
So over the 41 sessions that I completed, my chance of NOT having to make a 4th buy-in at any time was (1-0.076)^41= 4% and the chance of having to make buy-in #4 at some point was about 96%*
I played Russian roulette with a 13 chamber revolver and dodged the bullet 41 times!!!!
I did say that this was selective reporting! I've played similar bunches of sessions in the past and lost back all profits and more when buy-in #4 has been quickly needed and was a choice of £500+ or walk away bruised. I usually walk away bruised. :o)
* All maths are approximate and ignore the 0.35% house edge of the underlying game.
I used OnceDear's Rule of Thumb in estimating probabilities.
I skipped playing yesterday.
But it would be rude not to.....
Loaded up the single chamber in the 13 chamber hypothetical revolver
Pointed at temple.
.
.
Click.
Phew
Tonight it was buy in £100: Lose £85 of that : Buy in £250: Claw balance up to £400: Cash out.
It was notable that I quickly got to £395 but then briefly lost my way down to £348 before clambering back to £400
[NOTE: This is a dumb-ass recreational way of losing money]
Once again: It would have been rude not to
Buy-in £100: Cash out £151.50. Never went below £80
So now I have 43 consecutive winning sessions of >=£50 profit each time. Subject edited. Chart to be updated later.
I wonder if 50 sessions will be achieved? Watch this space.
Another Day, Another Dollar.
Tonight's session went smoothly. Bought in for £100. Played about 30 mins. Cashed out £150 dead.
Brings me to session 44. 50 is beckoning. Will I make it?
Second session of this Friday Evening
Bought in £100
Played about 30 mins, slightly aggressive at 5,10,15 progressive till I had 140 or more then 1,2,3,4,5 progressive.
Cashed out £150.50
How can I resist trying for 50 sessions? Glad I didn't have to dip into secondary buy-in. Sort of inevitable if I have 5 more tries.
I haven't stayed up to date with blogs and just saw this
is it possible you have benefited from a manipulated algorithm that allows you to win a little bit at low stakes, planning to clobber you when you decide to raise your bet level and 'go for it'? I've heard that claim from others
I've thought that myself, but I doubt it.
You don't get to see what happened on the next few similar sessions :)
Let's just say, I haven't given it all back, yet.
OD's Dry Challenge
I've decided to challenge myself to abstain from alcohol for 3 months: No big deal: It's a personal challenge where I may choose to reveal my own personal habits and traits. As expected of such a challenge, all sorts of opinions and analysis have been offered. I've been offered some kind words of encouragement and support, some 'critical analysis' and I've received some obnoxious personal attacks (elsewhere). Some trolls do like to troll. Whatever!Here's the original thread where I commit to going 'dry' for Jan, Feb, March of 2020
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/34101-the-oncedear-goes-dry-challenge/
Apparently, 'Dry January' is something of a quirky British tradition. I'm just extending it for my purposes.
Yes: Not drinking at all for 3 months will be challenging to me. I've done it before, for longer. It's an exercise of my own choosing and I don't care what some folk read into that.
Since I doubt the topic warrants constant exposure in the 'Recent threads' list, I'm going to diarise* my progress here. Later, if the moderators deem the topic to be 'controversial' or in breach of rule 19, that thread might get closed and this might be all that remains. So far my fellow moderators appear to be tolerating it.
Thanks to all who offered encouragement and wagers in the form of pledges to charity. Thanks even for constructive criticism. Zero thanks for trolls putting words into my mouth.
So, far, if I fail in my challenge, I'll forfeit *£100 to a UK charity of my choosing plus *£5 for each 'unit' imbibed over the whole 3 month period. I'd also pay $100 to Wizard's nominated charity and $50 to BeachbumBab's charity. If I succeed, Wizard and BBB have pledged donations to my chosen charity.
I am not accepting wagers or sponsorship for my own financial benefit.
* And yes: I may use UK currency, Imperial or metric measures and English spelling. So bite me!
Comments
You got lucky with Wiz saying ok to .5% alcohol beer. I would have said no. What If you drink 10 beers in a day? That's like having a full regular beer,
Wizard said OK to '<0.05%' which is what our authorities permit to be called 'Alcohol free' Not '<0.5%'
There are four types; alcohol-free, de-alcoholised, low-alcohol and alcoholic beer.
These are defined by:
Alcohol-free beer = no more than 0.05% ABV
De-alcoholised beer = no more than 0.5% ABV
Low-alcohol beer = no more than 1.2% ABV
Alcoholic beer = contains more than 1.2% ABV
My bad. I mis-resd your percentage.
Stocked up on some supplies for the challenge $:o)
How did that get there?
But seriously, the whiskey miniature is for toasting in the new year and will be my last till April.
Extra practice dry day today: I've had a hot chocolate and will be going to bed early.
no buttermilk? I give you my secret weapon and you aren't going to use it?
Buttermilk!
It's not in my regular diet so I don't know if I'll like it and I can't say I've ever noticed it in the store.
In deference to your recommendation, I'll seek some out next time I go shopping.
Cheers.
warning: buttermilk is no less a matter of 'acquired taste' than whiskey is.
but you will agree there is no mixing the two
Though my challenge does not kick in for another 26 hours*, today I had no alcohol. Yesterday I had 1/2 a pint of beer, as I was cooking with beer.
Nightcaps of Hot Chocolate both nights.
Certainly no struggle yet
*00:05 UTC 1 Jan
Tomorrow, I'll be starting a 40 (UK) pint batch of home brew. It will be just perfect to open in April.
I need to get a siphon pump for when I bottle it, as accidentally sucking some wort into my mouth would be unacceptable.
It's begun. Last JD glugged at 15 sec before midnight.
Please track your weight during your challenge as I would like to know what effect the challenge and your diet has.
Tracking my weight, indeed.
I'll restrict it to PM with a select few.
Have invited gwae to do likewise as he is giving up soda for the same duration.
An insight to the British tradition of 'Dry January'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/ee7aa735-492c-42da-9ff2-e46adebf7a9e
I'll be doing updates here, more or less weekly. Here's an interim one.
4 days in and no problems at all.
I've been doing my annual tax return, which is usually accompanied by a few relaxation drinks $:o) but even that got to me no worse than 'Hmm. A drink would be nice.'
Liking the hot chocolate but not getting much joy from the orange juice, which just doesn't 'touch the sides' Found myself a bit tired in the afternoon, possibly related to the hot chocolate.
I know it's early days, but I'm also trying to eat better ( in between Christmas chocolate) and I've lost about a pound per day even with that.
Update.
Still dry with no real problems.
Frequently felt 'Hmmm a drink would be nice now' but no insatiable urge. Been pacing around a little, but nothing new there.
A few restless nights where I've been kept awake by trivia from the day-time. Unsure if that not being able to 'switch off' was down to lack of a night-cap.
Weight down just 4 pounds from the start. Too soon to say how it will trend.
Feeling 75% confident of success.
Will probably update fortnightly from now on.
the lack of buttermilk vitamins to replace lost alcohol vitamins is going to doom you ... j.k.
but did you find that the UK is a buttermilk free zone? if so I would find it remarkable as it is used in cooking over here
I've still not seen buttermilk in our shops. Apparently available in small tubs as a cooking ingredient.
I looked it up
In the shops
If I see some, I'll buy some.
Quote: odiousgambitwarning: buttermilk is no less a matter of 'acquired taste' than whiskey is.
But you will agree there is no mixing the two.
I found some. No varieties to choose from. According to the tub, 30ml is a portion. I didn't read that until I'd poured a lot more in my favourite JD glass.
You weren't kidding about it being an acquired taste! It can be an extra penalty for if I fail on my challenge. 300ml of that stuff would be enough deterrent for anyone.
Incidentally, before I found this stuff, I found two varieties of goats milk and one 'Asian' supermarket selling camels' milk
Anyhow, this dry challenge is too easy, so for no good reason whatsoever, I'm also making February a vegetarian month. Not Vegan: I'm not totally crazy! Only penalty for failing the veggy month will be to drink a tub of this buttermilk stuff.
I definitely would shoot myself if I had to limit myself to 30ml. I can hardly hold myself back to drink just a quart, or 946 ml. Maybe 30ml is for cooking.
You have to admit, once you've downed some buttermilk, there's no way you can drink booze.
Quote:You have to admit, once you've downed some buttermilk, there's no way you can drink booze.
Obviously I can't run that experiment until April (I might) but I could have happily gargled with gasoline to take the taste away.
I chucked the second half tub away. It didn't feel like a waste.
Status update:-
Yayyyyy. 25% of the way into the 91 day challenge and all is well.
The mild urges that I've had to imbibe JD at bedtime have subsided. If I get the urge, I just distract myself with some hot chocolate. Lunch time drinking with buddies, or drinking when out having a pub dinner is now simple substitution of beer with tonic water and blackcurrent. Tonic and black is more expensive than beer :o(
Weight loss has stalled, in fact reversed a little.
A quick shout out to GWAE: Congratulations on 25% into your no pop parallel challenge.
Today, I encounter the biggest temptation to date. Caught me a bit wrong-footed:-
Making a batch of my signature Bolognese. I needed to open a bottle of my Cabernet to add a glassful to the sauce. I am resisting and won't take a sip, but it's surprisingly alluring. The rest of the bottle will probably haunt me till April.
The weakening has begun. Excellent!
j.k.
sooner or later we have to discuss this idea of temporary abstinence. it is not embraced by everybody, that's for sure. Maybe in the US some of the resistance comes from our Prohibition history - these things can be wrong-minded
Hi ODG,
Photo now appended. I really did pour it all in the pan and moved the rest of the bottle out of sight. It was an odd and unexpected temptation. Maybe because I'd not thought of a strategy or substitute like I had for the JD and beer.
I've now got totally used to not having the nightcap with no withdrawal. Not drinking beer in the pub has been a cinche. Maybe if it were summer, I'd get tempted while gardening. It's said that it takes about a month to break a habit and I can see that is true. Until you try it, you can't see the subtle change and no amount of description will do it justice.
Onto the psychology of the Dry January type abstinence that many Brits practice:
Maybe it is subtle institutional propaganda from our nanny state, but I do find myself receptive to the idea. I suppose it's something like a Sabbatical: A pilgrimage, or a period of introspection. Some of my Christian, Hindu and Muslim friends practice such restrictions out of religious observance and maybe there has been a cultural injection from our colonial years and years of multiculturalism. Maybe I just have too much time on my hands and maybe it's a difference in lifestyle between your country and mine. We Brits/Europeans tend, I suspect, to be more receptive to the idea of introspection and even acceptance of our failings. Unlike some on this forum, I don't think i know it all. Unlike those others, I embrace the change and don't rebel against it.
If nothing else, I'm testing myself. Proving that I'm in control, while acknowledging that it takes conscious effort to stay there. It would be oh so easy to say "I don't need to prove I'm in control, because I just am"
Incidentally, to make this a bit more challenging, I've dropped one of the big barriers to my failure. It's a bit perverse, but it was set that if I failed, my first drink would see me throwing $150 to moderators' charities: An expensive price of failure. I've decided that I will pay those donations, win or lose. $:o)
And to those who laugh at my 'Problem'. Frankly their ignorance is their problem.
Some of the criticism of dry January goes beyond 'irritation at fads' and goes towards the 'more harm than good' health wise. I think more harm than good is possible for someone who really does have a drinking problem, as I think it is well established that abstinence , oddly, does little to nothing as far as reducing the physical dependence. In other words, a drinker picks up right where he left off in the addiction spectrum. You might assume that a guy who has trouble stopping once he has one drink would find this is 'cured' for him at least for a bit, with say dry January, till he builds it all back up again, but this just does not happen [though surely there is a small effect at first].
In the meantime almost every drinker is plotting a big celebration once he has achieved such a goal, which may contribute to the wrong-headed thinking that is half his problem to begin with.
Since you know I drink, it may surprise you that I think everyone who really drinks, discounting the people who nurse a glass at odd times only, is somewhere on the spectrum. I believe someone who really drinks, drinks too much sometimes - or is not really a drinker but instead in the discounted category above. I'm somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 years of 'real' drinking for myself, not quite 50 I guess, and have to say a period of abstinence just doesn't strike me as something constructive - my approach has been to intentionally practice various ways of moderation, and I am thankful for being able to do that. Some can't do this and do risk needing to quit completely.
On the other hand, I applaud you for your efforts, and do concede there are arguments out there for what you are doing that have merit. Individuals differ.
an example of well thought out criticism different from mine:
http://theconversation.com/dry-january-a-convenient-distraction-for-the-alcohol-industry-106891
Hi ODG,
Thanks for showing the interest.
Quote: ODGSince you know I drink, it may surprise you that I think everyone who really drinks, discounting the people who nurse a glass at odd times only, is somewhere on the spectrum. I believe someone who really drinks, drinks too much sometimes - or is not really a drinker but instead in the discounted category above. I'm somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 years of 'real' drinking for myself, not quite 50 I guess, and have to say a period of abstinence just doesn't strike me as something constructive - my approach has been to intentionally practice various ways of moderation, and I am thankful for being able to do that. Some can't do this and do risk needing to quit completely.
I can see merit in your argument. Certainly most of us are on 'a spectrum' According to various guidelines I'm 'At rsk of adverse health consequences' simply by virtue of the regularity of my drinking, not so much the quantity.
You might be surprised to hear that I won't be going on a celebratory bender on April 1st. I'll ease into a safer regime and will probably hold that regime for at least a year. This all coincides with other lifestyle changes I'm working on. It should be constructive if only be giving my body a detox. But yes. I'm aware I might be in denial.
Minor update.
This is day 45 of 90: I'm half way through my self imposed 3 month break from drinking.
I've not touched a drop. There's been very little urge to drink and I'm satisfied that I'll sail through the next 45 days.
Counting down is easier after this half way point. I'm looking forward to my next drink, but it won't automatically be at 00:05 on April 1st. I'm not spending the next 45 days wishing my life away.
Skipping the evening nightcap has led to an unexpected consequence: I've been going to bed much earlier, much more often, and getting up earlier. Night cap has been chocolate with full fat milk.
Weight is down about 5 pounds over the term. It was briefly down 7 pounds and never up above the initial weigh-in.
* And buttermilk still tastes like puke.
Congratulations on 45 days!
Yayyyyy. Two months completed out of three.
Still haven't touched a drop, and to be honest I'm not missing it any more. Feeling a bit more healthy and sleeping better and often earlier.
Have eaten smaller meals, about 1,200 kCals per day, for all of the past week and I'm now 7 pounds down for the YTD.
Still have that open bottle of red wine, left over from the ragu. Looking forward to a taste of that in April.
Also, just started to make a batch of Home Brew ale. That will be just ready to drink by then, but 40 pints should last a while.
congratulations! and regarding your homebrew ambitions, a sentiment for you that I have set to go at just the right time:
https://youtu.be/Tm-e-LfrU7g?t=3293
LOL. Where did you dig that up?
> LOL. Where did you dig that up?
that's a favorite in certain homebrewing circles
as you know, I make homebrew, and when I first started it didn't take me long to realize what I could imitate well was not American lagers but English ales - and my tastes in beer changed accordingly. I too celebrate that style!
Hello, I have such a question, can a withdrawal from a casino be the same as with this
[edit: Link redacted] ?
Update.
It's now day 80 of my 91 day challenge and in spite of some serious stress (Bloody Covid19), I'm still dry. I suspect that if I hadn't started this challenge, my alcohol consumption might have increased significantly. Wary not to let that happen, come April.
Spent the last 4 days 'Social distancing' as advised by the UK government. That comprises only infrequent short visits to the stores for essential supplies, and apart from that, I'm socially isolated along with Wife and an elderly family member. We can go for short walks together or apart, but the weather hasn't been great so it's virtual bug-in.
Stocks of drinking chocolate are depleted and Milk is mostly sold out in the nearest stores.
So my nightly hot choc night-cap has had to be restricted. Tonight's hot choc was made with water and was god-awful.
Can't get in a 'big monthly grocery shop' because of shortages, which means I have to trek from store to store getting what I can, when I can. Stores are rationing most things and completely out of many things. Chicken not available anywhere. Ground beef rare as hens teeth.
Spent today racking and making more beer and will have about 120 bottles ready soon. Looking forward to tasting some.
Pubs, restaurants and the gym are closed from tonight onwards.
take heart, most people pass over the ample supply of buttermilk!
Here in the UK, it's now April and I have completed my three months of abstinence. Yayyyyy.
When I started this, I'd never imagined that I would end it confined to my own home for the forseeable future. So, no going to the pub for a celebration meal and drink.
In deference to this forum, I won't take that first drink until the forum also reaches April in the Pacific Time Zone.
And it is DONE!
Three months without so much as a taste of alcohol. I wasn't confident at the outset, but with the support of members here, I got more and more confidence and less and less inclined to drink. So much so that I nullified one of my incentives in that I'm going to pay out on my side wagers with Wizard and BeachBumBabs to support their charities. But I'm now calling on them to support mine:Shelter UK
It's been pretty stressful this last month with the COVID situation and now I'm required to stay home isolated for at least 3 months. I sure know how long three months feels!
Take care folks.
Comments
Looking back, I know that although 'hit and run' means nothing and 'sessions' mean nothing, it occurs to me that there is something still weird about those two successes. I'll analyse at wager level, what went on in the intermediate session, where I seem to recall I was throwing down more bets of >£50 rather than grinding away with 5, 10, 15, 20 etc.
It might just be, and I don't rule out, there's possibility an anomaly in the RNG Blackjack that I was playing. Almost like it gave a different house edge at different playing levels, such that it was baiting me with generosity at the lower wager level and then whacking me when I ramped up. Such behaviour would be outrageous and surely outside of regulated acceptability. If true, it COULD maybe be exploitable??? Inviting AP's to PM me if they care to analyse and comment further.
OMFG. I think I've spotted it. During my winning sessions, I was ALMOST exclusively playing a certain RNG blackjack at my favourite online casino. But for the losing period of play, I was mostly playing a different variant at two of my other casinos. It looks to be that the bulk of lost money was at my second and third choice casinos.
Belay that. It was all the same casino, but maybe a different game variant.
Preceding the first uptrend WAS a different casino.
Definitely time to investigate further!!!!!
when the wizard was testing betting systems, making videos, it is true that the charts would often look like this, with stretches where the trend was consistently up or down. We have to figure there was no RNG manip in those
it is definitely something that hits you: surely there is a way to discern where the trend is going! but no one can do it.
The shape of the chart 'Ramp and plummet' for the first and third segments was pretty much under my control, though when a plummet would occur was and always would be a mystery.
For the middle section, I was not particularly adhering to any system, hence the more random walk. It's just a bit anomalous that I escaped the plummeting and just had the random downtrend when not bothering.
Marty Ramp and Plummet charts.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/21359-debunking-roulette-marty-with-pictures/