OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 4325
March 14th, 2015 at 9:23:05 AM permalink
As a little exercise, I've created an Excel workbook which illustrates dramatically how a progressive Martingale will generally give a bankroll with quite a steady initial uptrend punctuated with death defying crashes.

It allows you to experiment with waiting till xNumber of Reds appear before starting a martingale bet on the possibility of a Black to break the cycle.

It's nothing sophisticated and does not use macros, so is safe to run in excel 2010 or later.

What it shows pretty convincingly is that it is very likely that a Martingaler will see a nice easy and steady increases in his bankroll until a wholly unpredictable loss will set him back. Often the setback will wipe out profits and be survivable. Often it will be a total loss of bankroll. It also shows that waiting for a sequence to get established is just wasting time.

I'll leave it online a few months. If the owners of admins here wish to, they can host it themselves, subject to leaving it unchanged and attributing to me by name.

Martingale Debunking Workbook (You may need to 'Enable editing' in your Excel application.

It extends to 100,000 spins but works even better if you extend the rows by duplication. As per the instruction, just fire off a re-calculate by selecting cell a1 and hitting delete
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Kavouras
Joined: Apr 22, 2014
• Posts: 52
March 14th, 2015 at 2:41:46 PM permalink
Very interesting work, thanks.

However we must decide if we have a theoretical discussion about the concept of increase as you lose or a very practical discussion.
Theoretically the Martingale is based on some very interesting concepts that can give much food for thought. Theoretically speaking, (with unlimited bankroll) this method is a winner.

Practically speaking, you can't lose all your bankroll in one attack, because you would have reached the table maximum sooner :-)

In my opinion Martingale is overvalued by beginners and undervalued by "experts". None really understands the true value of its concept.
http://www.Roulette30.com
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 17994
March 14th, 2015 at 2:45:48 PM permalink
Quote: Kavouras

Very interesting work, thanks.

However we must decide if we have a theoretical discussion about the concept of increase as you lose or a very practical discussion.
Theoretically the Martingale is based on some very interesting concepts that can give much food for thought. Theoretically speaking, (with unlimited bankroll) this method is a winner.

Practically speaking, you can't lose all your bankroll in one attack, because you would have reach the table maximum sooner :-)

In my opinion Martingale is overvalued by beginners and undervalued by "experts". None really understands the true value of its concept.

If you have unlimited money then you have all the money therefore there's nothing to win.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Kavouras
Joined: Apr 22, 2014
• Posts: 52
March 14th, 2015 at 2:52:09 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

If you have unlimited money then you have all the money therefore there's nothing to win.

This is exactly why I wrote that we should clarify if we are doing a theoretical or practical discussion.
http://www.Roulette30.com
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 4325
March 14th, 2015 at 2:58:26 PM permalink
There is only practical :)

If you have infinite bankroll, you can never increase or decrease it :)

Most newbies discover Marty and believe it to have practical value: It does: if you have 1000 and will be shot unless you can raise 1100, then you marty and stand a good chance of surviving. But that's about it.

As a recent newbie messaged me on this concept "Don't worry my friend we will make a lot of money". i wrote this workbook to stop him taking a path to ruin and thought it worth sharing.

My objective was not to prove that Marty is without value, only to illustrate, practically, that it is no more likely to increase your bankroll to a meaningful extent (x2) than it is to destroy it totally.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Kavouras
Joined: Apr 22, 2014
• Posts: 52
March 14th, 2015 at 3:09:42 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

There is only practical :)

If you have infinite bankroll, you can never increase or decrease it :)

Most newbies discover Marty and believe it to have practical value: It does: if you have 1000 and will be shot unless you can raise 1100, then you marty and stand a good chance of surviving. But that's about it.

As a recent newbie messaged me on this concept "Don't worry my friend we will make a lot of money". i wrote this workbook to stop him taking a path to ruin and thought it worth sharing.

My objective was not to prove that Marty is without value, only to illustrate, practically, that it is no more likely to increase your bankroll to a meaningful extent (x2) than it is to destroy it totally.

I mostly agree with you.
http://www.Roulette30.com
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 4325
March 14th, 2015 at 3:15:17 PM permalink
Quote: Kavouras

I mostly agree with you.

Fascinating. Stuff the aspects we agree on. Let's argue !
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
• Posts: 8623
March 14th, 2015 at 3:22:03 PM permalink
I like the second (or third) graph:

"Hey guys, check me out, I started with \$5k and I've already more than doubled my BR! You guys suuuuuck!"

*2 hours later*

"So uhh.....I may have just gotten a little unlucky.....I uhh, well, hmm, my BR is kind of uh....well at least I still have my health!"

Anyway, nice graphs. It's one thing to know eventually it loses or w/e....but is something else to see what the graphs look like.
sc15
Joined: Sep 28, 2014
• Posts: 594
March 14th, 2015 at 3:32:48 PM permalink
Well, I can think of a situation where martingale has value especially in vegas.

A hooker wants \$500 for the night and you have \$450. The odds are in your favor for getting laid tonight. But you'll still wake up with less money than you started :)
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014