Posted by OnceDear
Jun 19, 2018

OOps I did it again

On 18th of this month, I described, in my blog, how I played like a knob...

... As per my usual Modus Operandi,
I'd bought in for a small amount: £65. Lost that,
bought in for £100. Lost that,,
bought in for £200. Lost that.
bought in for £750 and somehow clawed back the losses plus a modest profit.

Well, a leopard cant change its spots...

So, tonight, fuelled by Jack Daniels, I went online and credited my account with the arbitrary amount of £85

Buy-in £85. Bye Bye £85. £85 down. Damn and blast it.
Buy-in £200. Bye Bye £200. £85 + £200 = £285 down. Damn and blast it.
Buy-in £285. Bye Bye £285. £85 + £200 + £285= £570 down. Damn and blast it.
Buy-in £750. Well, it could have been Bye Bye £750 putting me down £1320 for the evening.

But I clawed it up to £1500 Cashed out.

Don't ask me how I did it. Blame reckless gambling and JD

So I end the evening -85-200-285-750+1500 = £180 in profit.

Well. I couldn't let it lie £180 profit was a stupid amount
So, I reversed the withdrawal, Clawed my way up to £1570 ad cashed out again to give me an evening profit of £250

It could have been oh, so different !!!!


odiousgambit Jun 20, 2018

well, we can't call it 'hit and run' but your gambling style does seem like a version of 'quit when you [finally] are ahead'

VCUSkyhawk Jun 20, 2018

This right here is exactly why I will never touch online gambling again. Too easy for addictive behavior. When I go to Vegas I bring a set amount of cash and lock my CCs in the hotel safe. I dont know how much of these funds are very disposable, but perhaps you should consider deleting your online account and only do brick and mortar casinos to reign in that behavior.

OnceDear Jun 20, 2018

Thanks for the comments guys, and for caring about my 'addiction'

No. It's not hit and run. It's abject stupidity.

I quit ( rest ) when I'm ahead by a few tens or hundreds of £££

Fortunately, I'm sane enough to also quit ( pause ) when the losses exceed my predefined spending.

So it was, March/April where I had a bunch of back to back lost buy-ins that came in at a couple of thousand quid. When I returned to the game, this month, it was not with the intention of chasing losses from those sessions, and it's extremely lucky I didn't, or I would have needed to buy in to the tune of >£10k, just to have a half decent chance.

Now, to set your mind at ease, all this spending is and always has been well within my affordable entertainment budget.

There is, some risk, which I've mentioned in private to a few folks. I will be coming into a lot of money soon. It could potentially burn a hole in my pocket and I COULD go crazy.

I'm taking steps to restrict my chance of going rogue, including placing limits on my account and putting the funds out of easy reach... A bit like having a gun in the home and a family history of irrational behavior.

Posted by OnceDear
Jun 18, 2018

Chasing Losses Again

I confess - I had a few pretty bad sessions in March and April: I'd lost a few £k playing online Blackjack of Live table and RNG variants. Oh hum!

Back then, the course of my lifetime bankroll was too gruesome to blog post about. Too gruesome to chase for a recovery.

So, I put it behind me and took some time out from recreational gambling.

But now it's June, so I thought I'd treat myself to a little flutter. It didn't go so well !

I figured on playing a little low stakes RNG Blackjack with the modest objective of doubling or losing £65. And so, it began!

I popped £65 credit into my account, and proceeded to make small wagers...

It lasted just over 45 minutes and after dipping down to one last desperate £10 I clawed my way back up to £75 and then I lost the damned lot.

Start Balance£65
Highest Balance£75
End Balance£0
Count of Wagers86
Average Stake£6.47
Buy-in Outcome Loss of £65
Session Outcome Loss of £65

Here's the chart:-

So. What's a fool to do? Buy in again with a higher amount and place some higher wagers. STUPID, STUPID, STUPID

Popped another £100 credit into my account and proceeded to make slightly larger wagers...
Clambered up by £30 Then back down. Then back up. Then bobbled about the starting balance for 30 minutes or so.
Then lost the damned lot, again.

Start Balance£100
Highest Balance£130
End Balance£0
Count of Wagers72
Average Stake£8.05
Buy-in Outcome Loss of £100
Session Outcome Loss of £165

Here's the chart:-

So. What's a fool to do: Buy in again with a higher amount and place some higher wagers. STUPID, STUPID, STUPID

Popped another£200 credit into my account and proceeded to make much larger wagers...

Never got ahead

Lost the damned lot, again in just 16 wagers.

Start Balance£200
Highest Balance£200
End Balance£0
Count of Wagers16
Average Stake£18.12
Buy-in Outcome Loss of £200
Session Outcome Loss of £365

Here's the chart:-

So. Ever the fool, decided to throw more weight behind this Buy in again with a much higher amount and place some much higher wagers.

Popped another £750 credit into my account and proceeded to make much larger wagers, typically £50

Lost my way down to £145. Felt really sick

Clawed my way back up to £830 Felt a bit lucky

Lost my way down to £130. Felt really sick and desperate.

Clawed my way back up to £1115. Felt elated. I'd wiped out my earlier loss and was now at break even

So... Did I go to bed happy?

Did I bloody hell. I wanted a profit for all this pain. At least £65 which was my original objective.

Pushed on, with some modest 5,10,15 wagers.

Clawed my way up to £1200.

Cashed out. Went to bed happy. PHEW!

So, I ended my little online trip with a modest profit. In this case 450-365 = £85

But it had very nearly cost me £1115 and most likely I'd have bought in again for £1,000 or much more.... Just like I had in April $:o(

OnceDear's always this stupid. But he's not always this lucky.

Start Balance£750
Lowest Balance£130
End Balance£1200
Count of Wagers508
Average Stake£22.07
Buy-in Outcome Profit of £450
Session Outcome Profit of £85

Here's the chart:-


odiousgambit Jun 18, 2018

whatever happened to that loss rebate thing?

OnceDear Jun 18, 2018

The Loss rebate: There was the big one: the first one, into which I unfortunately won without making a loss.

Then there was a later, far less lucrative one into which I did make a modest loss of about £70 IIRC. They sent me my rebate as promised.

Just after that, I got a bit tired of waiting for my full blown vip status and took a break from gambling. Apparently I'm still in a probationary vip status and get some of the offers, but not really bothered and nothing so lucrative.

100xOdds Jun 18, 2018

I know what you mean about chasing losses.

I've been playing a new slot:


it's a variation of the slot game where I got my only w2-G in slots.

hence, whenever I walk by a similar machine on my way to the poker room or VP machines, I pop in a $20.

anyway, this new version called Eureka is the most addictive so far for me.

I started at $0.50 per spin and won $300.

went up to $1 denom, and lost it all plus $200 more.

chasing losses, went up to $2.50 denom and lost another $200. :(

then maxxed out at $5 denom and won everything back ($700) in one lucky spin!

like you, I thought for a second to keep going but cashed out instead.

it was for a little over $1100 ($700 + $400 more I put in).

it wasn't because it was the logical thing to do but because of the homeless looking person sitting next to me.

(he didnt say or do anything but I just felt uncomfortable to continue playing with such a large amount showing on the machine.)

and unlike you, if I had lost at the $5 denom, I would have quit.

not because of discipline but because I would have been out of cash.

so yeah, i know how you feel about logic and discipline going out the window.

I was lucky in that I had outside factors that forced me do the correct thing.

hm.. not sure if 'forced to do the correct thing' is a good thing when at the casino...

OnceDear Jun 18, 2018

Thanks for the comments.

Many many times, I run through this cycle, and often I document it in this blog.

E.g Buy in for 50 with the hope of ending the day with 100... Losing the 50

Then buy in for maybe 100 with the hope of winning back what I lost, plus some profit. Losing that

Then buy in for maybe 200 with the hope of winning back what I lost, plus some profit. Losing that

Then buy in for maybe 500 with the hope of winning back what I lost, plus some profit. etc. etc.

It's not really much different to martingaling and equally unwise.

MOST times, I've escaped by the skin of my teeth, where one of the latter sessions goes well and recoups the losses. I write those up $:o)

But it isn't always so. Just like ordinary Martingale, I've had a few spectacularly bad sets of sessions. And on those occasions, where I've bought in and lost maybe £1000 after already losing as much again, I just 'stop and reset' So it was earlier in the year. I lost far more than my 'entertainment budget' for the month, so I licked my wounds. Brushed off the loss and just walked away from the game for a few months.

I could quite easily have tried to chase the huge losses from April, but that would have meant probably losing another £2k or more instead of that £65, followed by another £3k or more instead of that next £100 etc etc.

I COULD, one day attack the game with REAL money in the order of £100K and could be pretty confident of probably clawing back the few thousand that I lost earlier in the year. But I'm NOT THAT CRAZY. I can forget a few thousand lost. I don't want to stake a fortune to get it back.

One of these days, I may write up a post that describes in blood curdling detail, how badly it can ( and did ) go wrong.

Still... Still in lifetime profit for that -ev game of Blackjack.... But not nearly as much as I once was.

Posted by OnceDear
Mar 06, 2018

Slots. BORING!

I just don't get it.
I've played some UK slots over the decades and seen them evolve. Back in the dawn of time, you had one pay-line and three reels and a big handle to pull. Nice mechanical game. Then they went a bit sophisticated and had a button to push and motors to spin the wheels. For the adventurous player, you had hold buttons occasionally active and the good old 'nudge' feature. That was it.
They were fun. You even had coins fall out occasionally. You could tell whether you'd won by looking at the pay-line and intuitively knew if your single cherry or three bells was a rubbish win or a ten bagger.
Even later still, a few decades back, you had features that extended the game and gave you choices, such as the monopoly based games or cops and robbers. Amusing enough. I was briefly addicted.
But now, I just don't get it. Modern slots with all their hi-res graphics just seem so un-amusing.

Tonight, I activated an online casino bonus that involved playing a selected slot. Wager £50 and get a £10 bonus. There was a need to play through that bonus 20 times before cashing it out. What the hell. It seemed to cost in.
So I credited £50 and fired up the game. I was to have 99 pay-lines at a cost of 33 'coins' per spin. I set the coins to 5p for a nice easy £1.65 a spin.
I hit spin.
Bonus spins a few times - BORING
Wild cards - BORING
I hadn't a clue what was a good win or a rubbish one or why.
Play involved no further thinking and I was presented with some graphic squares pretending to be reels and every few spins they would get zig-zags arbitrarily splattered through them. WTF are these stupid win-lines? Why did it make a song and dance when I won ten or twenty or fifty pence? It hardly felt like a win at over a quid a spin!!!
So, I just counted the 122 spins needed to meet the wagering requirements.
WR met, account balance >£280. So, I'd won >£230. Erm... Thanks, but BORING!
Can anyone explain the attraction of these no-brain required games.

Posted by OnceDear
Mar 04, 2018

My First Loss Rebate Bonus

New territory for me. An intro to the weird world of the '20% Loss Rebate Bonus'
This is a follow up to my forum post.

So, for those who don't know how it works, the 'Loss Rebate Bonus' is a strange creature indeed: Basically, you wager as normal and if you win, overall, you get NO BONUS, but if you lose overall, you get some of your losses back. In this case it was a 20% Loss rebate to be awarded on Monday, based on what I lose between 00:01 Saturday and 23:59 Sunday. The limit to the rebate was to be £1,000

This is so damned counter-intuitive. To get the maximum 'benefit' from the bonus, I needed to have an aggregate loss of £5,000 and they would give me £1,000 back. If I managed to not lose over the weekend, the offer expires and I get nothing.

Whoopdey Doo. I've never aspired to lose £5,000 over a weekend before and I wasn't going to do so now, even if that was the only way to get my 'free' £1,000

But, it's so weird. This really was a fantastic offer: The maths proved it.

The sensible way that this might work, could be that I play and wager and unfortunately lose my £5,000. Then on Monday, I'd pick up my £1,000 rebate and wager with that and somehow win back all that I'd lost. It might be a longshot, but it would be a freeroll that I would never have had. That's not what happened!

Here's why it's actually a great offer, Illustrated with a simple wager on Roulette Red ( single zero game):-
Consider me and another person, player b, with the exact same offer.

Let's say I'm putting £4,865 on Red that pays even money. I place £135 on the zero as a hedge.
I've staked £5,000.
Player b puts his £4865 on Black and another £135 on Zero. He too staked £5,000 and we have everything covered.

Assume Red wins.
I scoop up £9730 and player b has lost £5,000. Between us we lost £270, which is the 2.7% house edge.
But. on Monday, player b gets his £1,000 rebate. We now pool our resources of $10,730 or £5,365 each.
So, you see, even with the awful house edge of roulette, this bonus was worth £365 to me.

Doing the same exercise with a fair game such as a coin toss, then it can easily be shown that the offer is worth exactly £500 to me.

So, note that the 20% rebate offer of up to £1,000 is actually worth 10% of the £5,000 potential loss = £500

But of course there is no player b. Just me. And I'm damned if I'm wagering £5,000 on red. That would be wayyy outside my comfort zone. It would seem that there is no way of hedging this bet. So, I posted on the forum here seeking advice.

The advice varied from ' 'Put all your bankroll on one number at Roulette' to 'Just bet the max'. Generally the sage advice was to 'Embrace the Variance'. This was a frightening proposition. £5,000 is outside my comfort zone for a weekend's losses in the casino.

I knew that I must accept and activate this 'bonus offer' but even the maths and the sage advice received left me impossibly uncomfortable.

So, I braced myself... I'd got just over £300 in my online casino account and I mentally braced myself to potentially have to lose that plus another £4,700. I didn't aspire or want to lose at all, but I needed to be prepared. I expected that my courage might leave me after losing maybe £2,000, but one step at the time. I'd see what I could do with that existing balance: Maybe I could win £500 with it and just walk away happy, or maybe I'd lose it and start topping up.

But then things don't always work out as planned !!!
Is it a bad thing? I needed to lose £5,000 to get any loss rebate. Lose nothing and I get no bonus.

I just couldn't get it to work, and Zod knows I tried!

I went to my favourite game, a low house edge BlackJack variant.
Initially amusing myself with a 10, 20, 30, 30 progressive betting pattern* I managed to lose my way down to £255. Then I got a Blackjack bringing me up to £300.

I never looked back: That £255 was the low point. Within 10 minutes, I was up £200 and my balance was £500.. Within another 20 minutes I was at £800, up by £500. I took a long pause and stopped playing at £825. PHEW!

But you know how it is. £825 is so close to £1,000, it would be rude not to try. . .
An afternoon session playing 5,10,15,15 progressive, ground my bankroll up to £1,000
OnceDear, still the Lucky Tit, but I wasn't making use of the bonus. Without losing bigtime, i was destined to never get the benefit of that £5,000 loss. That made me sad for about 2 seconds.

But hang on... I needed another £20 profit to get a nice round £700 on the day, so I played a few tiny progressives of 1,2,3,3 or 2,4,6,6.
Would you believe it took me another 55 wagers just to get that extra £20. Went to bed a happy bunny. :o)
Groan, but as one target hit, another wanders into view. I noticed that just another £85 win would see my lifetime bankroll back to where it was in September. A worthy target, and so close. Who can't turn £1020 into £1,105?
Well, don't look at me. I smashed it.

Wager Count470
Average Wager£10.90
Total Action£5,121.00
Expected Loss£23.04
Total Profit£814.00

Takeaways from this little adventure.
Loss rebates can be very valuable.
Always read the small print on bonus offers.
Don't aspire to lose into a loss rebate.
Don't be afraid to lose.
I have certainly not exploited this bonus optimally. Ask me if I'm bothered. It will just expire at midnight with no rebate received.
OnceDear struggles to lose. Did I actually get any benefit, as the bonus will expire unused?
OnceDear is a very Lucky Tit indeed.

Some further reading...


* Progressive betting patterns make no difference to house edge and are just for amusement.

Time to have a laugh at my expense... I'm a degenerate tit... Sometimes lucky, sometimes not.

As the midnight expiry approached, I thought I'd try just one more little hit and run (Hit and run is stupid). Jeez, that was stupid. I just about recovered unscathed after 200 more wagers and a dip in my balance of £600.

Chart Updated! I'm not always so lucky as to always escape with such stupidity.


odiousgambit Mar 04, 2018

well, you might know this would turn into another "lucky tit" experience.

Of course, the idea is to win, and that is what you did. In Don Johnson's case, he had a threshold to reach before he got a loss rebate, and was told [yes he went for advice] that if he reached in losses, to keep on going past that. So counter-intuitive that he really had to trust his advisors sure enough.

In your case, there was no threshold. I think that shows [Redacted] doesn't know what it is doing, or they are so convinced you are a foolish whale they are risking little.

I hope you get more such offers. Just getting the offer seems to be good luck.

And next time, make big wagers and really test how you are suppose to do it.

OnceDear Mar 04, 2018

OdiousGambit said ...

"Just getting the offer seems to be good luck.

And next time, make big wagers and really test how you are suppose to do it."

Well, I take that as mild rebuke for not caning this bonus to the max. I can live with the shame and the 800 quid winnings.

I can't even start to work through whether I (almost) exploited this appropriately, or whether I should spend the next few hours re-attacking it. I doubt I will re-attack it as I have the 'bird in the hand' and I'm damned well keeping it.

I concur that the [redacted] casino is underestimating its vulnerability. I too, hope that they keep the offers coming.

Need to analyse this vulnerability much more thoroughly.

odiousgambit Mar 05, 2018

I have to chuckle at your update, even after you narrowly escaped you kept going!

OnceDear Mar 05, 2018

Yes ODG. Having been damned lucky to claw back that £600, I couldn't resist chucking down a few small wagers in the hope of getting to £1200 balance, and no doubt would have pressed on for £1220 then £1250, then £1500. The clincher was looking at the time, seeing that my rebate offer had expired 10 minutes ago and that there was truly ZERO justification to continue.

Anyhow... A bit more analysis of the offer.

Remember, I couldn't find a way of hedging this, so considering the virtual coin toss possibility, I'd estimated the true worth of the offer to be £500, but that would let the offer expire half the time which seemed like a waste.

So, I've revisited one of the suggestions, to make one massive wager on one number at single zero roulette. It turns out that even against the house edge of roulette, that had a much higher value at £837 or 16% player advantage.

Here's the analysis, where I considered all 37 possible outcomes and summed the returns for all the possibilities. I still need to explore the possibility of multiple single number wagers to see if I can hit some middle ground on probability of success.

NumberStakeReturnRebateTotal Return + Rebate

Total Profit31000
Profit each837.83
Probability of Success2.702%
Profit From Success175000
Loss From Failure4000
Player Edge16.76%

Posted by OnceDear
Feb 10, 2018

Hit by stocks: Revenge?

OK. this is a silly post, addressing my state of mind.

Hypothetical numbers...

Lets say, my net worth in cash is £1,000,000. Comprising stocks, cash in bank etc, with no debt of any consequence.

Now, what with stock market turbulence and bitcoin volatility, lets say I just lost £20,000 of that value last week.

That's a bummer! Unless the market takes an uptick, I just lost a significant chunk of money. Only 2% of my net worth, but still it feels nasty: The kind of money that used to take me several months to earn, back in the day when I worked..

I don't expect to claw that back quickly on the markets. Groan.

But hang on: What if I set aside say £100,000 for potentially popping into my online casino account ( in £5,000 chunks as needs be ), and I martingale, or similar with £100 base bet, then there's something like a 80% chance that I'll claw back that lost £20,000 and I'll be a millionaire again. Yayyy. Worst case: I lose my way down to £900,000 and Heck, I could have another couple of goes.

Note to self: Keep deposit limits in place on online account and don't gamble under the influence of JD.

Note ignored... A bit... Deposited £150 and played it up to £800. Satisfied with that. Cashed out. Deposit restrictions tightened,

Additional note to self: Don't attempt to grind that £800 to £1,000. Play Clue instead at $10 per game wagered.



odiousgambit Feb 18, 2018

For some reason just saw this.

You can dollar cost average with buying on your way down and then dollar cost average selling on your way back up. The problem comes in not knowing if certain phases will be prolonged.

Short downturns like we just had are scary but that's about it.

OnceDear Feb 18, 2018

Thjanks ODG,

I always considered that dollar (or pound) cost averaging was an illusion perpetrated by low quality finance commentators and brokers pushing for commission." nothing more than a marketing gimmick and not a sound investment strategy". If it's so great, then as stocks fall shovel money in at an accelerated rate, doing much more than averaging, and magically, it becomes +ev, which of course it doesn't in reality. If I'd pound cost averaged on my BT shares, I'd have jumped under a train by now, rather than taking a few hits and getting a bit financially bruised. They're down to where they were 30 years ago. No amount of pound cost averaging would have helped me.

Though the numbers quoted above are hyperthetical and beyond my actual wealth, they do reflect proportions pretty closely. If I look at my wealth graph with auto-scaling, I just see a big, mean plummet of several £k. To set my mind at ease, I re-scaled my graph to have the y axis start at zero. It showed that 2% to be as insignificant as it is.

For anyone who likes a laugh at my expense, I just dis-invested completely in BitCoin. I banked a modest profit of a few £k, but just before a 3 day stretch where the coin's value rallied by about 20%. No regrets: Leave a profit for the next guy.

odiousgambit Feb 19, 2018

hmmm, well, never seen dollar cost averaging dissed like that in what I've read but I have to admit a lot of what I read is put out by t rowe price and vanguard etc. - suspect characters I guess.

I never thought of it as a magic or unfailable formula though.

As for my own reaction to the recent swoon, I did not put my own dollar cost averaging thing into play but gambled on a small purchase at totally the wrong time out of boredom. You knew about that but please only consider that for what it was, stupidity.