OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Feb 10, 2018

Hit by stocks: Revenge?

OK. this is a silly post, addressing my state of mind.

Hypothetical numbers...

Lets say, my net worth in cash is £1,000,000. Comprising stocks, cash in bank etc, with no debt of any consequence.

Now, what with stock market turbulence and bitcoin volatility, lets say I just lost £20,000 of that value last week.

That's a bummer! Unless the market takes an uptick, I just lost a significant chunk of money. Only 2% of my net worth, but still it feels nasty: The kind of money that used to take me several months to earn, back in the day when I worked..

I don't expect to claw that back quickly on the markets. Groan.

But hang on: What if I set aside say £100,000 for potentially popping into my online casino account ( in £5,000 chunks as needs be ), and I martingale, or similar with £100 base bet, then there's something like a 80% chance that I'll claw back that lost £20,000 and I'll be a millionaire again. Yayyy. Worst case: I lose my way down to £900,000 and Heck, I could have another couple of goes.

Note to self: Keep deposit limits in place on online account and don't gamble under the influence of JD.

Note ignored... A bit... Deposited £150 and played it up to £800. Satisfied with that. Cashed out. Deposit restrictions tightened,

Additional note to self: Don't attempt to grind that £800 to £1,000. Play Clue instead at $10 per game wagered.

$:o)

Comments

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Feb 18, 2018

For some reason just saw this.



You can dollar cost average with buying on your way down and then dollar cost average selling on your way back up. The problem comes in not knowing if certain phases will be prolonged.



Short downturns like we just had are scary but that's about it.

OnceDear
OnceDear Feb 18, 2018

Thjanks ODG,

I always considered that dollar (or pound) cost averaging was an illusion perpetrated by low quality finance commentators and brokers pushing for commission." nothing more than a marketing gimmick and not a sound investment strategy". If it's so great, then as stocks fall shovel money in at an accelerated rate, doing much more than averaging, and magically, it becomes +ev, which of course it doesn't in reality. If I'd pound cost averaged on my BT shares, I'd have jumped under a train by now, rather than taking a few hits and getting a bit financially bruised. They're down to where they were 30 years ago. No amount of pound cost averaging would have helped me.



Though the numbers quoted above are hyperthetical and beyond my actual wealth, they do reflect proportions pretty closely. If I look at my wealth graph with auto-scaling, I just see a big, mean plummet of several £k. To set my mind at ease, I re-scaled my graph to have the y axis start at zero. It showed that 2% to be as insignificant as it is.

For anyone who likes a laugh at my expense, I just dis-invested completely in BitCoin. I banked a modest profit of a few £k, but just before a 3 day stretch where the coin's value rallied by about 20%. No regrets: Leave a profit for the next guy.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Feb 19, 2018

hmmm, well, never seen dollar cost averaging dissed like that in what I've read but I have to admit a lot of what I read is put out by t rowe price and vanguard etc. - suspect characters I guess.



I never thought of it as a magic or unfailable formula though.



As for my own reaction to the recent swoon, I did not put my own dollar cost averaging thing into play but gambled on a small purchase at totally the wrong time out of boredom. You knew about that but please only consider that for what it was, stupidity.

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Nov 12, 2017

34 Winning Sessions

Post Re-titled a few times and edited slightly after even more winning sessions. This is it now. 34 Consecutive Winning Sessions. I've made £1k and I don't want to continue to the inevitable oblivion post!

I was going to call this post 'Watch me win 22 consecutive sessions' But some member would have chimed in. He still may and I invite his contribution. Then it became 25, then 30 and now 34.

Anyhow. Sessions mean nothing. Hit and Run is not a strategy for beating games. But Hit and Run is what I did. It was fun,
I did it, but itís over now.

Sorry. $;o)

Unlike other members here, I will happily furnish proof to The Wizard, Moderators, or selected members.

Also, unlike other members, I don't suggest that what I did was a good idea. It was extremely dumb and risky and lucky.

After 22 30 34 consecutive clearly defined sessions of blackjack, I've just turned £100 into £852.50 £858.50 £1102.50.
This was real money wagered online and now cashed out.

That's a pretty lucky set of sessions and proves once again that Oncedear is a lucky tit! it demonstrates something else, but more of that later.

Read that again 25 34 Consecutive Winning Hit and Run sessions. Zero losing sessions!

I almost hate to mention it $:o)

Background info:-

Underlying game online RNG blackjack. House edge 0.41%. https://www.grosvenorcasinos.com/games/blackjack-perfect-pairs

Starting bankroll was £100 which I popped into my online account from my PayPal on 19/10/2017 23:16

Over the next 22 26 days I played sessions. Some days I had more than one session and some days I had none. Some sessions were over very quickly, and some were very long. My hit and run session goal was not rigid and varied between £10 and £100 as the mood took me. Basically, make the price of a bottle of JD, a litre of JD or a day at the spa with a nice massage. Later, for shits and giggles, I set some £1 profit goals.

During this period, I withdrew some funds back to Paypal and occasionally I either cancelled withdrawals or pulled funds back from Paypal to the casino account (Irrelevant).

I added no other funds, so whether my bankroll was all with the online casino, or partly held in PayPal, I was not adding some secret funds from the ATM or the back of my wallet or wherever. I haven't spent the winnings yet and they currently sit in PayPal.

I admit that I did accumulate complementary play to the value of £33 £42, just by virtue of action placed. I played that through and added any winnings to my bankroll.

Also, during the session of 10 Nov, I played a few hands of Live dealer blackjack with my bankroll and received £50 of bonus play from a certain exploit. I count that in my winnings, because the exploit required me to put lots of bankroll at risk.

But that's all. No subterfuge, no fudging the numbers.

Here are session times and outcomes.
Session #Session Start TimeSession End TimeSession Start BalanceSession End BalanceGoalProfitNotes
0119/10/2017 23:1619/10/2017 23:31£100£201£100£101Quick and Easy
0221/10/2017 15:3628/10/2017 21:32£201£226£25£25Took A Break Mid-Session
0330/10/2017 20:4730/10/2017 20:56£226£241£15£15Extremely Quick
0431/10/2017 21:4931/10/2017 22:03£241£256.50£15£15.50Very Quick
0501/11/2017 21:1401/11/2017 21:40£256.50£281.50£25£25Very Quick
0602/11/2017 23:0102/11/2017 23:14£281.50£306.50£25£25Very Quick
0703/11/2017 00:0903/11/2017 00:19£306.50£332£25£25.50Very Quick
0803/11/2017 16:2103/11/2017 16:33£332£356.50£25£25.50Very Quick
0903/11/2017 21:2103/11/2017 23:41£356.50£381.50£25£25Steady
1004/11/2017 16:2904/11/2017 19:43£381.50£482£40£40.50A Bit Long
1105/11/2017 10:3406/11/2017 17:15£482£533£50£51Two Day Grind
1206/11/2017 18:1806/11/2017 22:46£533£544£10£11Steady
1307/11/2017 14:2107/11/2017 16:06£544£585£40£41Steady
1407/11/2017 20:5908/11/2017 11:06£585£629.50£40£44.50Rested Mid-Session
1508/11/2017 15:2708/11/2017 20:21£629.50£655£25£25.50Hard Grind
1609/11/2017 00:4109/11/2017 01:02£655£680£25£25Comfortable
1709/11/2017 19:1509/11/2017 19:52£680£730.50£50£50.50Steady
1809/11/2017 22:1210/11/2017 03:07£730.50£743£10£12.50Late Night
1910/11/2017 21:4511/11/2017 00:07£743£760.50£15£17.50Reckless
2011/11/2017 00:2011/11/2017 00:31£760.5£776£15£15.50Quick
2111/11/2017 14:2511/11/2017 15:24£776£786To be able to say 21 wins£10Steady/Easy
2211/11/2017 23:1112/11/2017 01:09£786£852.50To be able to say 22 wins£66.50Massively on Tilt
2313/11/2017 14:4313/11/2017 14:45£852.50£853.50£1 To be able to say 23 wins£1Just One Hand
2413/11/2017 14:4513/11/2017 13:47£853.50£855.50£1 To be able to say 24 wins£2Just Two Hands
2513/11/2017 14:4713/11/2017 14:48£855.50£858.50£1 To be able to say 25 wins£3Just Two Hands
2613/11/2017 16:2813/11/2017 16:47£858.50£874.50£15£15Short Session
2713/11/2017 19:3513/11/2017 19:38£874.50£879.50£5 & Bragging Rights£5Very Short Session
2813/11/2017 19:5513/11/2017 20:02£879.50£884.50£5 & Bragging Rights£5JVery Short Session
2913/11/2017 21:4913/11/2017 21:50£884.50£885.50£1 To be able to say 29 wins£1Just One Hand
3013/11/2017 21:5113/11/2017 21:52£885.50£887.50£1 To be able to say 30 wins£2Just One Hand
3113/11/2017 21:5213/11/2017 21:53£887.50£888.50£1 To be able to say 31 wins£1Just One Hand
3213/11/2017 22:5714/11/2017 00:16£888.50£985£50 And To be able to say 32 wins£96.5Insanely on Tilt. Got Carried Away
3314/11/2017 01:3214/11/2017 01:45£985£1085£100£100Fuelled By JD
3414/11/2017 16:1614/11/2017 16:50£1085£1102.50£15£17.50Very Worrisome


Here is a graphical representation of the progress of my Bankroll throughout the 34 sessions. The red lines mark Session end times, where I paused playing, having met my goal.
Do you recognise something about the shape? Well, it bears a characteristic of the Ďramp and plungeí shape of a Martingale progression. No coincidence.

Well, I didnít Martingale as such: Nothing so rigid.
During the gentle upward stages, I was generally playing a 1,2,3,3,3 progressive. Itís one I enjoy and I find it breaks up the tedium of flat betting.
But whenever I perceived things turning downward, Iíd ramp up bet sizes: 2,4,6,6,6 at first, and if things continued to run bad, 5,10,15,15,15 or even 10,20,30,30,30 and later 20,40,60,60. or even £25,50,75,75 With Doubles and splits on top of that.
And in that 22nd session, things went really titsup. Look how I lost all my profits from over 4,000 wagers. During that session, I was throwing down £50 and £80 wagers like a man deranged. I somehow clambered up from a low point of just £86. It could have, and should have gone oh, so dreadfully wrong. I was literally just one wager away from oblivion when a lucky streak ensued. I might not have posted this, if it hadnít been for that remarkably lucky recovery. Or at least Iíd have been posting a good scare story for anyone daft enough to mimic my style of play. Session 32 was insanely dangerous too.

Donít try this at home unless, like me, you have more money than sense. I'm going to desist now and regroup. Maybe spend my ill-gotten gains of £1,002.50

Hit and Run Sessions and Martingale are financially worthless schemes, but occasionally amusing.
I guess I really did do what this leaflet suggests

Comments

OnceDear
OnceDear Nov 13, 2017

So, So tempting to throw that £852 (After 22 sessions) into three more hit and run sessions just so that I can boast 25 consecutive winning sessions.



If I set each goal as a humble £10, my probability of successfully renaming this thread would be roughly (852/862)*(862/872)*(872/882) or about 96% with a 4% chance of losing the whole bloody lot.



Shall I, Shan't I? Is the comedy value worth that massive risk?



An extra £30 or oblivion? Hmmmmmffff. Anyone for a side bet?



Or maybe I'll set 3 targets each of £1 for almost 100% probability of bragging rights?

OnceDear
OnceDear Nov 13, 2017

LMAO. The comedy value and bragging rights were just too tempting.

Stack up my £852.50 and have three more distinct and predefined session goals of £1 profit each.



Couldn't resist it for bragging rights and comedy value if nothing else.

So, I popped £100 of my funds back to the online account with the determination to make £1 and then cash out and then rinse repeat 2 more times. I was to play 1,2,3,3 progressive, but it never really came to that. The withdrawing funds and cancelling of withdrawals was symbolic of the end of session marker.

Here's the outcome.

AmountDate/TimeRef/IDTypeStatus
£10013/11/2017 02:43 PMRedactedDepositComplete
£113/11/2017 02:44 PMRedactedBlackjack: Perfect Pairs and 21+3Complete
-£10113/11/2017 02:45 PMRedactedWithdrawalPending
£10113/11/2017 02:45 PMRedactedWithdrawal ReversedReversed
-£113/11/2017 02:46 PMRedactedBlackjack: Perfect Pairs and 21+3Complete
£313/11/2017 02:46 PMRedactedBlackjack: Perfect Pairs and 21+3Complete
-£10313/11/2017 02:47 PMRedactedWithdrawalPending
£10313/11/2017 02:47 PMRedactedWithdrawal ReversedReversed
-£113/11/2017 02:47 PMRedactedBlackjack: Perfect Pairs and 21+3Complete
£413/11/2017 02:46 PMRedactedBlackjack: Perfect Pairs and 21+3Complete
-£10613/11/2017 02:48 PMRedactedWithdrawalPending




Lol. With the joys of one winning blackjack and one winning 'double' hand, I actually exceeded my goals by 100%

I'm off to re-title and edit the original post in this thread.



OnceDear is a silly tit! Sessions rock.

OnceDear
OnceDear Nov 13, 2017

There was a 26th winning session, and a 27th, and a 28th and 29th and 30th, a 31st, 32nd and a 33rd. Then I realised I was just £15 short of a nice round £1,000 profit. So i hit the casino for session 34. I had a sense of foreboding when that session started badly!



Some of those latter sessions were minuscule with trivial win goals.



Totally fking insanity. DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME!!!



This experience superficially disputes my own frequent assertion that Hit and Run is a dumb ass strategy and that sessions mean nothing.



Also ramping up bet size to catch up for a loss is insane.



But it was fun. Oncedear is again a lucky tit!

Remember folks. I don't report all the un-glamorous times when I lose thousands.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Nov 14, 2017

lucky is as lucky does, or, "you can't argue with success"



nonetheless it seems unlikely this is the end of it??

OnceDear
OnceDear Nov 14, 2017

I had a residual £1 of complementary play + 50p unwithdrawn balance, after I'd emptied my account. Bj can only be played there in whole pounds, so I wagered 50p on roulette. . . Giving me £2.



Took that £2 to the RNG Blackjack and ground it up to £23.50 before losing it all.



What I do note, is that for far far more sessions than I feel appropriate, I multiply my buy-in 2 fold, 5 fold or even 10 fold.



I don't think I'll be buying in for £100,000 any time soon in an attempt to make a million. With my luck, I'd grind it up to £990k and then lose the lot.



You know I said I felt this game might not be totally fair? It occurs to me that I've never seen a 7 card dealer hand or a 6 card player hand. I know they are rare, but I do have 10s of thousands of hands in. Must go check the probability of that.



Lifetime bankroll now looking a bit better. Will publish an update soon. It's still fun. That's the main thing.

BackgammonKid69
BackgammonKid69 Jan 05, 2018

Divide and conquer. I know, I know - - doesn't change the house edge one bit, but it DOES change your mental outlook, as you slowly close in on your goal. Divide the amount you seek to win into bite-sized pieces, find a place where there are several casinos close together (as opposed to different tables in the same casino) and enter each casino determined to win that portion of your goal. For example: if your goal was to win $500 or 500 of whatever your monetary unit is, and there were 10 casinos, as there used to be on the Atlantic City Boardwalk before the recession hit, then you would set your goal of playing at each place until you won $50. Then FLEE!! Each small win would boost your confidence and it is my opinion that you would stand a better chance than to try to win it all at once in one session. My way also leaves room for reflection between attacks, planning your course one rung at a time up the ladder, and you can stop midway if you like for a quick bite. I have had many successful ventures using this method and $500 a day is a King's ransom over here. Of course, there's always the down side, but we won't go there, it's not going to happen. It just ISN'T!!!

OnceDear
OnceDear Mar 03, 2018

LOL. Thanks BGK,



But you are quite misguided. Attitude and hit and run is not a casino beater. Your approach may be fun, but it's just a fun way to lose money.

I lose money too. 5h1t does happen all too often. Difference is that I treat it as a joke. The ebb and flow of 'a kings ransom' is trivial.

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Oct 30, 2017

Laughing at Sessions

No. Not that Attorney general fella, though he is funny enough.

We all know sessions in any game of chance mean nothing at all. Life is one long session and all that.

I'm amongst the first to shout down any member that says he has a winning game because he hits and runs with short sessions and session goals and stop loss limits etc.

Sessions and hit and run and betting targets mean nothing. Obviously bunkum and anyone that says otherwise is talking loblocks.

But sessions can be amusing. I just had a couple of sessions ( strictly speaking 3 short ones )

Some sessions I win, some I go bust. It will hardly break the bank either way.

Anyhow, make of this what you will. . .

. . . Saturday night, I was a bit bored sitting with Wifey as she watched 'Britains Got Talent' ( or was it the X factor?) So I thought I'd plan a bit of mischief quality me time for Monday. Mischief Me time that will cost £70 or so. So, I popped £50 into my online casino account, with the intent of cashing out at £120 to cover that modest expense, or else I might lose the £50 and belay the treat. Worst case scenario, I'd lose £50 while missing out on some crap tv. . . .

Can you guess the outcome(s)

I ground my way up to £121 before the next ad break and withdrew the funds. . . . £71 available, to treat myself on Monday. Original £50 returned to paypal account.

Then I thought, what the hell and reversed the withdrawal. . . . Never let it be said that OnceDear is a rational player.

Ground it up to £150 and checked it out again.

Treat now scheduled to the value of £100 of casino money.

So, that was session 1 and 1a. Today was Monday and for whatever reason, I did not make time for that treat. But I did notice that the supermarket had Jack Daniels on offer for £15, and my stocks were depleted.

Can you guess what I did?

Yup. Popped £50 online with the win target of £65. What a silly tit I am $:o)

AmountDate/TimeRef/IDTypeStatus
£50.0030/10/2017 08:47 PMRedactedDeposit Complete
£-65.0030/10/2017 08:56 PMRedactedWithdrawal Pending


Remarkably, my online balance never went below £50 tonight.

Moral of this tale. OnceDear is still a lucky tit, but this time a tit with the spare funds to buy a £100 treat and a bottle of JD to round it off.

* underlying game RNG blackjack with house edge 0.41% playing stakes <£5 per hand.

Comments

OnceDear
OnceDear Oct 30, 2017

Actually, though the above post is absolutely true and reflects a modest profit over a few days, this is a prime example of selective reporting. Work your way through my blog to read about all the times I had losing sessions and lost an aggregate amount of many MANY thousands.... You might struggle to find those posts. That's how session players can appear to have the Golden Fleece, the Holy Grail, the Arc of the Covenant and the Philosopher's Stone.

I play for amusement.

I lose money.

I originally won a few grand. I later won a few more grand, I have a few grand of all that left, so technically, I'm ahead lifetime so far, thanks to luck. It's all trivial compared to my real world 'current account'

Here's the chart of my 'Lifetime Bankroll' I'll update it from time to time. Look at the latter part where I was messing about with Hit and Run.



Win some: Lose some: Enjoy the game: Stay safe.

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Oct 05, 2017

Testing A Daft Theory.

This post is a continuation of a topic in another member's blog. I didn't want to hijack his blog.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/churchvancrash/blog/#post1647

It's all about an absurd theory about the behaviour of certain online RNG based blackjack games. I guess it all started when I picked up a suggestion that such a game at a popular online casino was rigged in such a way that low rollers get a fair game but those who get drawn in to wager more, say $25 a hand will get ripped off and lose to unusual dealer streaks of luck.

Play low stakes and get a fair game: Play stakes of over about $25, get your bankroll slaughtered. Hmmmm. Sounds like a whinger's claim.

It would be a pretty clever way for a crooked casino to scam it's users. But I'll say from the outset that this is far from an accusation of cheating by any casino games.

My daft theory is even more extreme, What if they rig the game to let you win a little at low stakes: to get you feeling cocky?

That sort of rang a bell in my head. I'd occasionally had the same suspicion of the certain Euro based games that I use. If you look at my recent blog post, I had 8 out of 9 consecutive sessions where I pretty much doubled my £200 float where I'd been playing low stakes, but as soon as I took my stake to £25, I had my arse handed to me on a plate. Weird, but not statistically significant. far from it.

Could it really be that not only do I get a fair game at <£5 stakes, but that I was actually getting a rigged player advantage to hook me in?

As I say, an absurd theory and as agreed with OdiousGambit: A textbook example of cognitive bias or selective memory.

To test for such behaviour properly would require a hell of a lot of wagers placed in a -ev game. So there is a no-win scenario, whether the games are cheating or not, I could expect to lose thousands.

But with tongue in cheek, I offered to set up a wager on whether the behaviour could be reproduced. Not a proper statistical test, just a fun exercise.

Well, while wrestling with the loading problems on this site, and before OdiousGambit could get back to me, I chucked £100 into my online account and played RNG Blackjack, strictly 3,6,9,9,9 progressive.

After 102 wagers, I'd doubled my money to £202.50. Hardly spectacular. It was only a 50:50 proposition, after all.

So, I joked about ODG not taking my wager and played on.

Session 2, I again played a modest progression of 3,6,9,9,9 and took my nominal £100 balance up by another £100+ to a final £305.50, which is where it stands at the moment. I never actually withdrew the winnings from the first session, but then, neither did I use any of the first £100 in the second session wagering. I'll post a chart into this thread later.

So, Whoop de do, 2 consecutive sessions where I doubled a £100 float. If I'd estimated the probability at the outset, I'd have put it at less than 25%. Nothing significant yet.

Shall I try again another 10 times: I probably will. Maybe someone will offer me a side bet before I continue.

What I won't be doing is have sessions at £25+ stakes, for a while.

Comments

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Oct 06, 2017

I too have noticed that when I increase my wagering, that is when I get clobbered.



Only I do not gamble online - so that means I have noticed this in circumstances where most of us trust the game not to be rigged .



One thing springs to mind, though: the proportion of my betting that is flat betting must be over 95% of my action. Thus, I am making an observation about a small proportion of my gambling vis a vis my perception of the vast proportion of it . It isn't hard to see how I get a skewed view - of course I can only speak for myself.

OnceDear
OnceDear Oct 06, 2017

Ok, confession time, just to prove I'm not completely selective in my reporting:



I continued into the night, low rolling and took my £305 down to £42 before going on tilt. While on tilt, I ground that £42 up to £401, without any intervening buy in. In a slightly rash continuation, I attempted to tilt my way up to £500. Failed and lost the lot.



Still, it was a bit of fun and cost me £100 investment on the day. This was shamelessly recreational play.

OnceDear
OnceDear Oct 09, 2017

Member Odiousgambit has been invited to a proposition bet and discussions are underway:-

I've said that I will play up to 10 sessions of RNG blackjack, each time starting with £50 bankroll. I'll play each session until I either double that bankroll, or I lose it down to 50p. After each session, I'll reset my account balance by withdrawal or topping up.

If I fail in 6 or more sessions, I lose the prop bet. and the bet is resolved with no need to continue.

If I succeed in 6 or more sessions, I win the prop bet and the bet is resolved with no need to continue.

If I succeed 5 times and fail 5 times, it's a push.



OdiousGambit would have a slight advantage because of the house edge, but with variance, it could go either way with almost equal probability.



Why am I doing this?

As a mildly amusing talking point

To illustrate that it is possible to have fun playing a low stakes progressive system, without too much jeopardy

To collect some 'typical' real life game data which will be charted for illustration.

To possibly show that online Blackjack is not conspicuously rigged and can reasonably be trusted at low betting levels..



Maybe later, I will repeat the exercise with higher wagers to possibly indicate that the game behaves differently in a rigged way.

This exercise will not be statistically sound analysis.

Unrelated ps

I had a good session yesterday and doubled my £250 bankroll at Live online Blackjack. That included £50 of bonus vulturing.

OnceDear
OnceDear Oct 09, 2017

Wager with OdiousGambit has been agreed in principle. Just need his final acceptance of the amount and terms.



Session 1 will commence at 23:00 GMT tonight.



I just await him confirming that he is happy to proceed with the 'terms' above and to finally confirm the amount of our wager.



I propose to start each session at 23:00 GMT each day and to post the results soon afterwards. I won't post any results, of course, until ODG has finalised the terms. :o)



[edit] ODG has now agreed the value of the wager between us and has raised no concerns about its terms. So, game on !

I think I have him worried $:o) [/edit]

OnceDear
OnceDear Oct 09, 2017

WOW!

Session 1 is complete. Commenced 23:00 GMT 09 Oct.

Outcome is outside my expectations by a long way.



Remarkably, my session bankroll never went below its starting level of £50

Session Duration32 Minutes
Games Played137
Games Won76
Games Lost51
Games Pushed10
Starting Bankroll£50
Bankroll Lowest£50
Bankroll Highest£100
Ending Bankroll£100


I generally stuck to a 1,2,3,3,3 progressive. No card counting. Basic Strategy from memory.

Note the characteristic sawtooth shape to the chart that results from progressive wagering.



So, This is one point to OnceDear.

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Session 2 commenced at 23:00 GMT 10 Oct. Paused for sleep-time at 02:00 GMT 11 Oct.

Session 2 resumed 14:00 GMT 11 Oct. Completed 15:54 GMT 11 Oct.



This session just ran and ran. After 3am, I had to go to bed, to resume next day! Almost 5 hours of play.

Session Duration4 Hours 53 Minutes
Games Played1192
Games Won536
Games Lost563
Games Pushed93
Starting Bankroll£50
Bankroll Lowest£13
Bankroll Highest£100
Ending Bankroll£100


Again, I generally stuck to a 1,2,3,3,3 progressive. No card counting. Basic Strategy from memory.



So, This is another point to OnceDear. Current score 2:0

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Session 3 commenced at 23:00 GMT 11 Oct and ended 01:04 GMT 12 Oct.



I'd changed the betting pattern to introduce variance and speed up the session. To that extent it succeeded. The most remarkable feature is the crushing defeat by a few bad streaks in succession. Typical demise to a progressive system.

Session Duration2 Hours 2 Minutes
Games Played560
Games Won240
Games Lost272
Games Pushed48
Starting Bankroll£50
Bankroll Lowest£0
Bankroll Highest£86
Ending Bankroll£0


This session, I generally stuck to a 1,2,3,4,4,4 progressive. As anticipated, that brought the duration of the session down significantly.



So, This is a point to OdiousGambit. Current score 2:1

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Session 4 commenced at 22:00 GMT 12 Oct and ended 23:06 GMT 12 Oct.



I reverted to mostly 1,2,3,3,3 progressive, with just a few wagers of 4. Slightly remarkable that I won more games than I lost.

Session Duration1 Hour 6 Minutes
Games Played244
Games Won115
Games Lost107
Games Pushed22
Starting Bankroll£50
Bankroll Lowest£42
Bankroll Highest£100.5
Ending Bankroll£100.5


This session, I generally stuck to a 1,2,3,3,3 progressive. Fortunately I did not ebb and flow into a very long session.

This chart is typical of a Martingale style progression, albeit I was capping my max wager to 4 units.



So, This is another point to Oncedear. Current score 3:1

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Session 5 commenced at 22:00 GMT 13 Oct and ended 23:52 GMT 13 Oct.



For amusement, I applied a capped Martingale 1,2,4,4,4 progression. This helped to keep the session short,Nothing remarkable, except that I had a few decent climb backs from very low ebbs.

Session Duration1 Hour 52 Minutes
Games Played482
Games Won203
Games Lost230
Games Pushed49
Starting Bankroll£50
Bankroll Lowest£0
Bankroll Highest£81
Ending Bankroll£0


This chart is typical of a capped Martingale style progression, with its steady up-ramps punctuated by massive vertical plunges. I was capping my max wager to 4 units. except when doubling or splitting. Marty did make the session more fun. My nemesis was a losing streak of 17 games!



So, This is another point to OdiousGambit. Current score 3:2

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Session 6 commenced at 21:10 GMT 14 Oct and ended 23:22 GMT 14 Oct.



For amusement, I again applied a capped Martingale 1,2,4,4,4 progression. I almost crashed and burned early on with two streaks of 8 losses each. Climbed back to £64 until I was eventually wiped out by a number of small losing streaks in succession.

Session Duration2 Hours 12 Minutes
Games Played578
Games Won253
Games Lost290
Games Pushed35
Starting Bankroll£50
Bankroll Lowest£0.50
Bankroll Highest£71
Ending Bankroll£0.50


This chart is again typical of a capped Martingale style progression, with its steady up-ramps punctuated by massive vertical plunges. I was capping my max wager to 4 units. except when doubling or splitting. Marty did make the session more fun.



So, This is another point to OdiousGambit. Current score 3:3

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Session 7 commenced at 20:00 GMT 15 Oct and ended 20:14 GMT 15 Oct.



Total change to betting pattern tonight.

I decided that at bankroll up to £25, I'd flat bet £2

at bankroll from £26 to £49, I'd flat bet £3

at bankroll from £50 to £90, I'd flat bet £4

at bankroll from £90 to £99, I'd bet up to £4 but not so much as to risk overshooting £100.

I did double or split as required, thus playing a few £8 hands.



WOW! Shortest session for a long time. Just look at the ratio of games won to games lost, and some of those were doubles and BlackJacks!

Bankroll NEVER dipped below the starting £50!

Session Duration14 Minutes
Games Played38
Games Won22
Games Lost12
Games Pushed4
Starting Bankroll£50
Bankroll Lowest£50
Bankroll Highest£100
Ending Bankroll£100




This chart is typical random walk, with typical OnceDear luck.



So, This is another point to OnceDear. Current score 4:3

Video capture of the transaction log is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Session 8 commenced at 12:01 GMT 16 Oct and ended 12:08 GMT 16 Oct.



Same betting pattern as last night.

I decided that at bankroll up to £25, I'd flat bet £2

at bankroll from £26 to £49, I'd flat bet £3

at bankroll from £50 to £90, I'd flat bet £4

at bankroll from £90 to £99, I'd bet up to £4 but not so much as to risk overshooting £100.

I did double or split as required, thus playing and dramatically losing one £12 round.



WOW! an even shorter session. Bankroll was slaughtered by a run of 7 consecutive losing hands, one of which split and had both new hands doubled. I never recovered from that streak, and indeed had several more short losing streaks in succession. Again look at the ratio of games won to games lost.

Session Duration7 Minutes
Games Played35
Games Won9
Games Lost25
Games Pushed1
Starting Bankroll£50
Bankroll Lowest£0
Bankroll Highest£54
Ending Bankroll£0




This chart is typical random walk, down to oblivion but without typical OnceDear luck.



So, This is another point to OdiousGambit. Current score 4:4

Video capture of the transaction log is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Session 9 commenced at 18:30 GMT 17 Oct and ended 19:22 GMT 17 Oct.



Same betting pattern as last night.

I decided that at bankroll up to £25, I'd flat bet £2

at bankroll from £26 to £49, I'd flat bet £3

at bankroll from £50 to £90, I'd flat bet £4

at bankroll from £90 to £99, I'd bet up to £4 but not so much as to risk overshooting £100.

I did double or split as required, thus playing a few rounds at stakes higher than £4.



Nice: Roller coaster of a random walk. I was lucky to have reduced my wager size as bankroll diminished and I felt almost sure to lose the session quite quickly. The only two really remarkable things about this session were

1)I had a generous bunch of 18 winning blackjacks in 239 wagers.

2)I carelessly allowed myself to win in excess of the target as a Blackjack powered me across the line.

Session Duration52 Minutes
Games Played239
Games Won108
Games Lost112
Games Pushed19
Starting Bankroll£50
Bankroll Lowest£17
Bankroll Highest£101.50
Ending Bankroll£101.50




This chart is typical random walk, down almost to oblivion but with typical OnceDear good luck.



So, This is another point to OnceDear. Current score 5:4

ODG cannot now win our wager, but he has a pretty much 50% chance of a 5:5 tie. OnceDear cannot lose $:o)

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Session 10 commenced at 16:07 GMT 18 Oct and ended 16:22 GMT 18 Oct.



Same betting pattern as last night.

I decided that at bankroll up to £25, I'd flat bet £2

at bankroll from £26 to £49, I'd flat bet £3

at bankroll from £50 to £90, I'd flat bet £4

at bankroll from £90 to £99, I'd bet up to £4 but not so much as to risk overshooting £100.

I did double or split as required, thus playing a few rounds at stakes higher than £4.



Roller coaster of a random walk - Downhill fast! Really nothing remarkable about this short session.

Session Duration15 Minutes
Games Played72
Games Won26
Games Lost43
Games Pushed3
Starting Bankroll£50
Bankroll Lowest£0
Bankroll Highest£61
Ending Bankroll£0




This chart is typical random walk, down to oblivion and with typical OnceDear bad luck.



So, This is a final point to OdiousGambit taking us to a final score 5:5.

Our substantial wager has resolved to a push.


Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

After session 10, I'll be writing up some more detailed analysis as a new blog post

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Oct 13, 2017

>Current score 3:1



OnceDear assures me I have not made a bad bet, erstwhile urging me to increase my wager . Suspicious!



In case it gets lost, the original discussion hinged on testing whether or not the BJ is gaffed, in that it is set to allow bankroll growth at low wagers but will make sure large wagering loses for the player. A 'suck you in' strategy by the house. Clearly the problem is that to test that fully, the player must risk those large wagers and in enough quantity to get sufficient data. That would be an 'ouch' for me and evidently for O.D. as well.



So we are only testing the low wager end of the spectrum. I won't say it is a waste of time in concept, since if it could be shown that low wagering produces a +EV situation, it would suggest the gaffed theory is correct. But it appears tedium can be the problem instead .



Perhaps I should increase my wager to increase the interest? Not at this point of course!

OnceDear
OnceDear Oct 13, 2017

Cheers ODG,

It's too soon to attribute any conclusion to this little experiment: There are a few interim observations behind the spoilers in my earlier comment*. Meanwhile I'm happily throwing many hours at this and collecting a substantial chunk of data. One could say that I'm wasting my time, but what the heck, I would only have been sleeping if I weren't doing this :o) Call it 'taking one for the team.'

It did occur to me that at the resolution of my substantial wager with ODG, that I may not have needed to go the full 10 sessions**. However, for the benefit of any backward looking probability calculations that I might do, I'll assert, now, that the test will be seen through to 10 sessions, win or lose any or all of them.

As ODG points out, we've already figured that whether the game is gaffed or not, it would pretty obviously be -EV to test the behavior at high stakes. I'll review that whole experiment for another time.



* My previous blog comment is where I'm appending session outcomes

** and before anyone says it. I know sessions mean nothing and that life is just one session.

I also know that my progressive betting patterns are not overturning the house edge, which on the underlying game is a tiny 0.41%, + a bit for my odd strategy error.

Underlying game rules.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Oct 14, 2017

3 wins to 2 losses now



maybe I won't have to use my backup plan to raise the funds for a losing bet now!



BackgammonKid69
BackgammonKid69 Jan 05, 2018

Why would anyone 'conspicuously rig' a game? Every time I've been cheated it has ALWAYS been done inconspicuously.

OnceDear
Posted by OnceDear
Sep 28, 2017

Some Timely Good Luck.

Well, it was exactly two years ago today that I posted to my blog:-

I'll state for now my medium term objectives.....
To attempt to use the top 1.5k of my bankroll to explore meaningful advantage opportunities.
To not allow my running balance to drop below 5K at any time over the next 2 years.
If it goes below 4k, to stop playing real money.


I should have had more resolve and less Jack Daniels!!!!!

At that time, my Lifetime Blackjack profit was 5403. I call that my Bankroll, because that's all that I ever wish to put at risk in the game.

Over the course of the last two years, I more than tripled that, getting as high as 18,000 in March 2016.

Then gravity prevailed, big time!
Recreational play slaughtered that bankroll, which is where the stated objectives come into focus.

On 28 August this year, I breached the 4,000 'stop playing' threshold. I played on, low rolling.
On 8th Sept, I was licking my wounds at a sorry looking 3360, having ignored my 'stop loss'

So it was that I popped 200 into my online account on 8th Sept This year.

Then I got lucky:-
Withdrew 175 profit on 11th Sept: Leaving 200 balance.
Withdrew another 300.00 profit on 18th Sept: Leaving 200 balance.
Withdrew another 100.50 profit on 18th Sept: Leaving 200 balance.
Withdrew another 100.50 profit on 20th Sept: Leaving 200 balance.
Withdrew another 200.50 profit on 23rd Sept: Leaving 200 balance.
Withdrew another 301.00 profit on 26th Sept: Leaving 200 balance.
Withdrew another 202.00 profit on 27th Sept: Leaving 200 balance.
Withdrew another 100.50 profit on 28th Sept: Leaving 200 balance.
updated...
Withdrew another 300.50 profit on 29th Sept: Leaving 200 balance.
[edit]
At last a losing session...
On the evening of the 29th, lost the whole 200.

So, what to do? I reversed the latest 300.50 cash-out and played a few more hours into the night.
Then...
Withdrew another 500..00 profit on 30th Sept: Leaving 200 balance.
Tee Hee. This degenerate gambling is fun.
[/edit]


So I ground 200 up to 2,180 over 12 days, having skimmed off the cream on 8 occasions.
2889 wagers of mostly between 1 and 25

Why am I posting this? To remind myself that variance can be good and that sessions mean nothing.
8 consecutive winning sessions averaging >185 profit each, all from an initial 200 credit.

All values in £

Comments

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Sep 30, 2017

So, did you lose your entire bankroll and now it is 1689? Or 1689 + 3360?



What is bankroll? When it is not your total savings, which it is not for me, then sometimes I am not sure. A few years ago, I arbitrarily decided it was $10k - but since I didn't just withdraw that and stick it under the mattress, what does that mean? I mused it should mean how much I am willing to lose gambling period, lifetime, from the point in time I declared that, but that I would add approx. 0.1% of my total assets per year to the figure.



I still ponder whether or not I really am willing to lose that $10,000 if it ever came to that. As for now, I am running too good to worry about it. Your story, though, reminds me there could be a day of reckoning.

OnceDear
OnceDear Sep 30, 2017

No, I didn't lose it back. I maintain a 200 float in the online account and what I skimmed off I still have in my current account along with some of the rest of my personal fortune :) I maintain a spreadsheet of 'lifetime bankroll' which started on the day of my big win in Jan 2014 at just over 6k. I track each buy in and cash-out whether it's online or B&M. It makes an interesting graph, which is offline at the moment, but will be posted here soon.



Incidentally I've edited between your replying and this reply. I did have one losing session last night where my 200 float was lost, so I popped 300 back in and ran that up to 700 before creaming off 500.



My profit over these few sessions was 1980 : That's 10 winning sessions and one losing session! Not that sessions mean anything. The last session was a short one with larger wagers.



Because these sessions were all online, I actually have a spreadsheet and chart at the level of individual wagers for this month. It's a very nice steady upward trend.



Though I ebb and flow funds back and forth into my online casino account, and equally I buy in and cash out chips in a B&M casino, I consider my bankroll to be the residue of my £6,000 initial winnings from when I started playing Blackjack in Jan 2014. I still have about 5k of that having had it far higher. If I lose all of that, I might very well create a new 'float' of maybe 10k out of my other funds. But at that time, I'll reassess my gambling motivation and possible addiction.



I'm fortunate that these sums of money are insignificant in the grand scheme of things and will not impact my life in any meaningful way.

BackgammonKid69
BackgammonKid69 Jan 05, 2018

Eventually, all online gamblers will learn their lesson. The lure is just too strong. There the computer sits, silently calling out to you as you try to sleep. You can win. You can kick ass, little fella. Just log on and you'll see. lol Brick and mortar. The punishment of the drive home flat broke will cure you of any of your dalliances with sub-par play.