OnceDear's Blog

whatever happened to that loss rebate thing?

The Loss rebate: There was the big one: the first one, into which I unfortunately won without making a loss.

Then there was a later, far less lucrative one into which I did make a modest loss of about £70 IIRC. They sent me my rebate as promised.

Just after that, I got a bit tired of waiting for my full blown vip status and took a break from gambling. Apparently I'm still in a probationary vip status and get some of the offers, but not really bothered and nothing so lucrative.

I know what you mean about chasing losses.



I've been playing a new slot:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/slots/30213-why-cant-i-stop-playing-this-slot-game-where-i-won-a-w2-g-last-year/2/#post655152



it's a variation of the slot game where I got my only w2-G in slots.

hence, whenever I walk by a similar machine on my way to the poker room or VP machines, I pop in a $20.



anyway, this new version called Eureka is the most addictive so far for me.

I started at $0.50 per spin and won $300.

went up to $1 denom, and lost it all plus $200 more.

chasing losses, went up to $2.50 denom and lost another $200. :(

then maxxed out at $5 denom and won everything back ($700) in one lucky spin!



like you, I thought for a second to keep going but cashed out instead.

it was for a little over $1100 ($700 + $400 more I put in).



it wasn't because it was the logical thing to do but because of the homeless looking person sitting next to me.

(he didnt say or do anything but I just felt uncomfortable to continue playing with such a large amount showing on the machine.)



and unlike you, if I had lost at the $5 denom, I would have quit.

not because of discipline but because I would have been out of cash.



so yeah, i know how you feel about logic and discipline going out the window.

I was lucky in that I had outside factors that forced me do the correct thing.



hm.. not sure if 'forced to do the correct thing' is a good thing when at the casino...

Thanks for the comments.



Many many times, I run through this cycle, and often I document it in this blog.



E.g Buy in for 50 with the hope of ending the day with 100... Losing the 50

Then buy in for maybe 100 with the hope of winning back what I lost, plus some profit. Losing that

Then buy in for maybe 200 with the hope of winning back what I lost, plus some profit. Losing that

Then buy in for maybe 500 with the hope of winning back what I lost, plus some profit. etc. etc.



It's not really much different to martingaling and equally unwise.



MOST times, I've escaped by the skin of my teeth, where one of the latter sessions goes well and recoups the losses. I write those up $:o)



But it isn't always so. Just like ordinary Martingale, I've had a few spectacularly bad sets of sessions. And on those occasions, where I've bought in and lost maybe £1000 after already losing as much again, I just 'stop and reset' So it was earlier in the year. I lost far more than my 'entertainment budget' for the month, so I licked my wounds. Brushed off the loss and just walked away from the game for a few months.



I could quite easily have tried to chase the huge losses from April, but that would have meant probably losing another £2k or more instead of that £65, followed by another £3k or more instead of that next £100 etc etc.



I COULD, one day attack the game with REAL money in the order of £100K and could be pretty confident of probably clawing back the few thousand that I lost earlier in the year. But I'm NOT THAT CRAZY. I can forget a few thousand lost. I don't want to stake a fortune to get it back.



One of these days, I may write up a post that describes in blood curdling detail, how badly it can ( and did ) go wrong.



Still... Still in lifetime profit for that -ev game of Blackjack.... But not nearly as much as I once was.

well, you might know this would turn into another "lucky tit" experience.



Of course, the idea is to win, and that is what you did. In Don Johnson's case, he had a threshold to reach before he got a loss rebate, and was told [yes he went for advice] that if he reached in losses, to keep on going past that. So counter-intuitive that he really had to trust his advisors sure enough.



In your case, there was no threshold. I think that shows [Redacted] doesn't know what it is doing, or they are so convinced you are a foolish whale they are risking little.



I hope you get more such offers. Just getting the offer seems to be good luck.



And next time, make big wagers and really test how you are suppose to do it.

OdiousGambit said ...

"Just getting the offer seems to be good luck.

And next time, make big wagers and really test how you are suppose to do it."



Well, I take that as mild rebuke for not caning this bonus to the max. I can live with the shame and the 800 quid winnings.



I can't even start to work through whether I (almost) exploited this appropriately, or whether I should spend the next few hours re-attacking it. I doubt I will re-attack it as I have the 'bird in the hand' and I'm damned well keeping it.



I concur that the [redacted] casino is underestimating its vulnerability. I too, hope that they keep the offers coming.



Need to analyse this vulnerability much more thoroughly.

I have to chuckle at your update, even after you narrowly escaped you kept going!

Yes ODG. Having been damned lucky to claw back that £600, I couldn't resist chucking down a few small wagers in the hope of getting to £1200 balance, and no doubt would have pressed on for £1220 then £1250, then £1500. The clincher was looking at the time, seeing that my rebate offer had expired 10 minutes ago and that there was truly ZERO justification to continue.

Anyhow... A bit more analysis of the offer.

Remember, I couldn't find a way of hedging this, so considering the virtual coin toss possibility, I'd estimated the true worth of the offer to be £500, but that would let the offer expire half the time which seemed like a waste.

So, I've revisited one of the suggestions, to make one massive wager on one number at single zero roulette. It turns out that even against the house edge of roulette, that had a much higher value at £837 or 16% player advantage.

Here's the analysis, where I considered all 37 possible outcomes and summed the returns for all the possibilities. I still need to explore the possibility of multiple single number wagers to see if I can hit some middle ground on probability of success.

For some reason just saw this.



You can dollar cost average with buying on your way down and then dollar cost average selling on your way back up. The problem comes in not knowing if certain phases will be prolonged.



Short downturns like we just had are scary but that's about it.

Thjanks ODG,

I always considered that dollar (or pound) cost averaging was an illusion perpetrated by low quality finance commentators and brokers pushing for commission." nothing more than a marketing gimmick and not a sound investment strategy". If it's so great, then as stocks fall shovel money in at an accelerated rate, doing much more than averaging, and magically, it becomes +ev, which of course it doesn't in reality. If I'd pound cost averaged on my BT shares, I'd have jumped under a train by now, rather than taking a few hits and getting a bit financially bruised. They're down to where they were 30 years ago. No amount of pound cost averaging would have helped me.



Though the numbers quoted above are hyperthetical and beyond my actual wealth, they do reflect proportions pretty closely. If I look at my wealth graph with auto-scaling, I just see a big, mean plummet of several £k. To set my mind at ease, I re-scaled my graph to have the y axis start at zero. It showed that 2% to be as insignificant as it is.

For anyone who likes a laugh at my expense, I just dis-invested completely in BitCoin. I banked a modest profit of a few £k, but just before a 3 day stretch where the coin's value rallied by about 20%. No regrets: Leave a profit for the next guy.

hmmm, well, never seen dollar cost averaging dissed like that in what I've read but I have to admit a lot of what I read is put out by t rowe price and vanguard etc. - suspect characters I guess.



I never thought of it as a magic or unfailable formula though.



As for my own reaction to the recent swoon, I did not put my own dollar cost averaging thing into play but gambled on a small purchase at totally the wrong time out of boredom. You knew about that but please only consider that for what it was, stupidity.

So, So tempting to throw that £852 (After 22 sessions) into three more hit and run sessions just so that I can boast 25 consecutive winning sessions.



If I set each goal as a humble £10, my probability of successfully renaming this thread would be roughly (852/862)*(862/872)*(872/882) or about 96% with a 4% chance of losing the whole bloody lot.



Shall I, Shan't I? Is the comedy value worth that massive risk?



An extra £30 or oblivion? Hmmmmmffff. Anyone for a side bet?



Or maybe I'll set 3 targets each of £1 for almost 100% probability of bragging rights?

LMAO. The comedy value and bragging rights were just too tempting.

Stack up my £852.50 and have three more distinct and predefined session goals of £1 profit each.



Couldn't resist it for bragging rights and comedy value if nothing else.

So, I popped £100 of my funds back to the online account with the determination to make £1 and then cash out and then rinse repeat 2 more times. I was to play 1,2,3,3 progressive, but it never really came to that. The withdrawing funds and cancelling of withdrawals was symbolic of the end of session marker.

Here's the outcome.

There was a 26th winning session, and a 27th, and a 28th and 29th and 30th, a 31st, 32nd and a 33rd. Then I realised I was just £15 short of a nice round £1,000 profit. So i hit the casino for session 34. I had a sense of foreboding when that session started badly!



Some of those latter sessions were minuscule with trivial win goals.



Totally fking insanity. DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME!!!



This experience superficially disputes my own frequent assertion that Hit and Run is a dumb ass strategy and that sessions mean nothing.



Also ramping up bet size to catch up for a loss is insane.



But it was fun. Oncedear is again a lucky tit!

Remember folks. I don't report all the un-glamorous times when I lose thousands.

lucky is as lucky does, or, "you can't argue with success"



nonetheless it seems unlikely this is the end of it??

I had a residual £1 of complementary play + 50p unwithdrawn balance, after I'd emptied my account. Bj can only be played there in whole pounds, so I wagered 50p on roulette. . . Giving me £2.



Took that £2 to the RNG Blackjack and ground it up to £23.50 before losing it all.



What I do note, is that for far far more sessions than I feel appropriate, I multiply my buy-in 2 fold, 5 fold or even 10 fold.



I don't think I'll be buying in for £100,000 any time soon in an attempt to make a million. With my luck, I'd grind it up to £990k and then lose the lot.



You know I said I felt this game might not be totally fair? It occurs to me that I've never seen a 7 card dealer hand or a 6 card player hand. I know they are rare, but I do have 10s of thousands of hands in. Must go check the probability of that.



Lifetime bankroll now looking a bit better. Will publish an update soon. It's still fun. That's the main thing.

Divide and conquer. I know, I know - - doesn't change the house edge one bit, but it DOES change your mental outlook, as you slowly close in on your goal. Divide the amount you seek to win into bite-sized pieces, find a place where there are several casinos close together (as opposed to different tables in the same casino) and enter each casino determined to win that portion of your goal. For example: if your goal was to win $500 or 500 of whatever your monetary unit is, and there were 10 casinos, as there used to be on the Atlantic City Boardwalk before the recession hit, then you would set your goal of playing at each place until you won $50. Then FLEE!! Each small win would boost your confidence and it is my opinion that you would stand a better chance than to try to win it all at once in one session. My way also leaves room for reflection between attacks, planning your course one rung at a time up the ladder, and you can stop midway if you like for a quick bite. I have had many successful ventures using this method and $500 a day is a King's ransom over here. Of course, there's always the down side, but we won't go there, it's not going to happen. It just ISN'T!!!

LOL. Thanks BGK,



But you are quite misguided. Attitude and hit and run is not a casino beater. Your approach may be fun, but it's just a fun way to lose money.

I lose money too. 5h1t does happen all too often. Difference is that I treat it as a joke. The ebb and flow of 'a kings ransom' is trivial.