No Jackpot Winner Powerball Prop Bet
Quote: weezrDASvegasi sbumit to you the correct calculations are on the page i referred you to
https://saliu.com/powerball-jackpot-odds.html
Good grief! The guy who runs that site is a quack and his math is all flawed due to subscribing to the Gambler's Fallacy.
Quote: weezrDASvegasQuote: ksdjdjQuote: weezrDASvegasQuote: ksdjdjThere is a summary near the end, in case you don't want to read the whole post (I sometimes ramble or go off on a tangent with my posts).
Last time I checked, you could bet "to win $1000" for odds smaller than +100, and you could get "$1000 down" for odds +100 (or bigger).
The "betting limits" reset after about 5 to 20 minutes or as soon as the odds change (whichever come first).
The current odds for the Mega Millions "no winner" is -1200, so you could have $12,000 to win $1,000 and then you would have to wait a bit, if you wanted any more.
I have about 9k in the the casino and the rest is in an account that can quickly be converted to bitcoin.
5dimes have been around since 1996, but there is always at least a "small worry" trying to withdraw from any "non/semi-regulated"^^^ online casino, but I haven't had any trouble*** with them so far.
^^^: By this I mean, they are a casino that is either not licensed or it is licensed in Costa Rica (either way, it would be extremely difficult to win a dispute).
Note: Some sites say Costa Rica doesn't offer licenses and others do, so that is why I wrote "^^^" above like this (at the bare minimum they are "established in Costa Rica").
***: Make sure you read all the rules, as there is one that I didn't notice until recently that says something like, "if your phone number doesn't match the one you have registered to your account, then we won't pay you".
Note: This rule was important for me to find###, because I currently have a different phone number to the one I registered the account with. I just asked live help to change it, and everything is fine now.
###: The only problem I have with them from personal experience is that they don't email you when the rules have been changed/updated (so always read them before you make a deposit or withdrawal).
----
Summary :
Gambling bankroll: I think the biggest bank-roll you will need for this prop is up to $300k.
Largest Bet/"Could I bet $20k...?": Currently, the biggest bet you can have on one ticket is to "Win $1000" (odds less than +100) or "$1000 down" (odds +100 or more). The line will eventually reset and you can have another bet, if you want (so you could bet 20k in total, if you still thought it was a +EV bet after all the "line changes/resets").
"... someone will say you broke some sort of rule and you won't get it" : There is always at least a "small chance"#*# of that happening with any online casino. So you just have to make sure you read all the general rules and "applicable sports specific rules" before you make a deposit and withdrawal .
Note: I have always been paid, so far.
#*# (update about 610 pm): But that could also be true for a land based sports book / casino.
This thread looks a lot like promotion for the casino..no offence! like bet 1000 to win 20.. woe!
my experience and thousands of other experiences are really BAD:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/30393-beware-of-the-criminal-online-casinos/
I will try and give you the "benefit of the doubt" and reply to your post as fairly as possible, even though the first two things you say seem "offensive" and/or "sarcastic" to me.
1."This thread looks a lot like promotion for the casino..no offence! ": I am not a promoter of 5dimes (or any other casino) but I have to name their website to give my thread and bets legitimacy (otherwise i could say anything, and not have any proof to back up the claims).
2. "1000 to win 20.. woe!": I know you said this to prove a point that the odds that I am taking are generally "very low" odds, but I would personally rather have 2% +EV for bets with odds of -1000, then to have 10% +EV with odds of +150 (as an example).
3. "my experience and thousands of other experiences are really BAD:": Yes, I agree that if you bet with SOME online casinos, you will have a bad experience, that is why there are review sites.
I now look at 5 (or more) review sites ever since I had a "bad experience" (see note below).
Note: One of my first experiences with an online casino was particularly bad, I used to bet with AC Casino about 10 years ago, and when I finally won they took about 1 year to pay me (I had to file a complaint with a website called askgamblers to help with getting my funds withdrawn).
Also, if you have had a bad experience with online casino(s) before, then I can understand why you would want to write negatively about those specific casinos. In fact you can open up a new thread or post to the thread you linked in your above post and talk about those specific casino(s) there instead (I am almost certain you are allowed to "name and shame" the casinos you have had a bad experience with).
-----
Below is something that may be helpful to you.
After looking at your thread, here are some interesting things that I found after typing "review GTbets.eu" in a search engine.
Lowest rating i could find on the first page: 6/10
Highest rating ... on the first page: 93%
Here is an excerpt from the site that gave them a 93%
https://www.goodsportsbooks.com/gtbets/
"... GTBets Review Scam Investigation? Any Legit Scam Complaints?
This sportsbooks reputation is intact and legit.
One of the first things we do when reviewing any sportsbook is search high and low for scam accusations. There is a very clean slate laid out for GTBets. As a matter of fact, when they first began they paid off the existing debts of around $40k of a defunct sportsbook (VIP sportsbook). They made the players whole, even though it was not their debt.
The only things I could uncover were a few player complaints about not being able to cash out but it was because they did not understand the bonus rollover requirements. This is going to happen everywhere and as a result, I can not find any legit claims of GTBets ripping anyone off. ..."
Below is an excerpt from the site that gave them 6/10 (they also have them "blacklisted", at the moment)
https://www.askgamblers.com/online-casinos/gtbets-casino-review/
"...After being notified that GTBets casino was operating without a valid licence issued by a regulated authority and despite the numerous attempts to receive further clarification and confirmation on behalf the casino management, AskGamblers Team have not received any. Operating without a valid licence means zero protection for players...".
----
I was tired when I wrote this, as it is the middle of the night where I live, so I hope my post is easy enough to understand.
OK, “Donald Caligula Trump” (notwithstanding latest Congress evidence or claim of evidence)!
https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.bet365.com
https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.ladbrokes.com
“I was tired when I wrote this”
“and give you the "benefit of the doubt"
you dont have to take it or leave it.. its gonna be forever there…
PS
Dont stay up AFTER mid night where you live.. the numbers are GHOSTS..
to calculate FAIRNESS in dis stuff you must have all combos played from the first rolloever to the latest draw where the jackpot hasn’t been won. if you trust da sites that publish number of tickets sold (most accurately nu,mber of combos sold) then you can calculate an acceptable probability to win the jackpot.
or you can calculus the AVERAGE probability of all probs between the first rolloever and the latest draw. you might get an average like 10% then you calculate the probability of at least 1 success in the last n trials (since first rollover).. both are close.
playing online is cheat ridden alright. But if you play at state lotteries (terminals) you can have an advantage when the jackpot exceeds total combs played (divided by price per ticket). if jackpot is N and total combos played is (N*n%) you got an n% advantage. don’t risk your deposits working with online crooks..the state lotteries will give you absolutely everythin you won ..and deserve..
Quote: WizardGood grief! The guy who runs that site is a quack and his math is all flawed due to subscribing to the Gambler's Fallacy.
no offence wiz.. but nobody can quak 200 heads in a row.. or 200 bj hands consec winning hands..
if its fifty-fifty it must cum up fifty-fifty..or else is zero-nifty..
“Hear ye! Hear ye! Hear ye! All persons are commanded to keep silent, on pain of imprisonment.”
Quote: weezrDASvegasno offence wiz.. but nobody can quak 200 heads in a row.. or 200 bj hands consec winning hands..
if its fifty-fifty it must cum up fifty-fifty..or else is zero-nifty..
Frankly, I think you are Ion Saliu. Either way, I will not even dignify this quackery and terrible English with further response.
Quote: WizardQuote: weezrDASvegasno offence wiz.. but nobody can quak 200 heads in a row.. or 200 bj hands consec winning hands..
if its fifty-fifty it must cum up fifty-fifty..or else is zero-nifty..
Frankly, I think you are Ion Saliu. Either way, I will not even dignify this quackery and terrible English with further response.
frankly, I dont think you are Ion Saliu.. the prob would be liky get 200 tail-kicks in a row…
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/31/2020"
Odds: -1200
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~95.69%
Estimated EV: about 3.66%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 14.7% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 95.69% (based on about 13.34 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
Note: You can wait if you want to see if the odds improve, but I think an estimated EV of +3.66% is good enough (especially at the small odds of -1200).
----
Odds:
MM Opened at -1200, and hasn't moved.
PB Opened at -3500 (will need to be about -2400, before it is roughly "break-even").
Opening Bal: 27,170
Finishing Bal: 27,503
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,503
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.50...%
Odds Taken: -1200
Actual EV: +3.46...%
Tickets Sold***: 13,907,441
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Quote: weezrDASvegasQuote: ksdjdjThere is a summary near the end, in case you don't want to read the whole post (I sometimes ramble or go off on a tangent with my posts).
Last time I checked, you could bet "to win $1000" for odds smaller than +100, and you could get "$1000 down" for odds +100 (or bigger).
The "betting limits" reset after about 5 to 20 minutes or as soon as the odds change (whichever come first).
The current odds for the Mega Millions "no winner" is -1200, so you could have $12,000 to win $1,000 and then you would have to wait a bit, if you wanted any more.
I have about 9k in the the casino and the rest is in an account that can quickly be converted to bitcoin.
5dimes have been around since 1996, but there is always at least a "small worry" trying to withdraw from any "non/semi-regulated"^^^ online casino, but I haven't had any trouble*** with them so far.
^^^: By this I mean, they are a casino that is either not licensed or it is licensed in Costa Rica (either way, it would be extremely difficult to win a dispute).
Note: Some sites say Costa Rica doesn't offer licenses and others do, so that is why I wrote "^^^" above like this (at the bare minimum they are "established in Costa Rica").
***: Make sure you read all the rules, as there is one that I didn't notice until recently that says something like, "if your phone number doesn't match the one you have registered to your account, then we won't pay you".
Note: This rule was important for me to find###, because I currently have a different phone number to the one I registered the account with. I just asked live help to change it, and everything is fine now.
###: The only problem I have with them from personal experience is that they don't email you when the rules have been changed/updated (so always read them before you make a deposit or withdrawal).
----
Summary :
Gambling bankroll: I think the biggest bank-roll you will need for this prop is up to $300k.
Largest Bet/"Could I bet $20k...?": Currently, the biggest bet you can have on one ticket is to "Win $1000" (odds less than +100) or "$1000 down" (odds +100 or more). The line will eventually reset and you can have another bet, if you want (so you could bet 20k in total, if you still thought it was a +EV bet after all the "line changes/resets").
"... someone will say you broke some sort of rule and you won't get it" : There is always at least a "small chance"#*# of that happening with any online casino. So you just have to make sure you read all the general rules and "applicable sports specific rules" before you make a deposit and withdrawal .
Note: I have always been paid, so far.
#*# (update about 610 pm): But that could also be true for a land based sports book / casino.
This thread looks a lot like promotion for the casino..no offence! like bet 1000 to win 20.. woe!
my experience and thousands of other experiences are really BAD:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/30393-beware-of-the-criminal-online-casinos/
NO way this thread got a legit reason other than promotion for an online casino. 25+ pages for what? who cares about the bets of a couple of gamblers who are not gamblers at all. aint interesting at all.
and the players are not real gamblers. ksdjdj (redacted by management for violation of respecting privacy) at high level. wizard is paid for the casino to endorse the business..i doubt wizard has even a real account with any casino.. his site gets money from ads (all for online casinos) plus bonuses for writing about online casinos.. fake reviews, fake betting, fake accounts.. message is loud an clear – open accounts guys, even the wizard gambles online!!!
faking is a shame..better be honest and say its advertising..then i would have some respect…
Quote: weezrDASvegasQuote: weezrDASvegasQuote: ksdjdjThere is a summary near the end, in case you don't want to read the whole post (I sometimes ramble or go off on a tangent with my posts).
Last time I checked, you could bet "to win $1000" for odds smaller than +100, and you could get "$1000 down" for odds +100 (or bigger).
The "betting limits" reset after about 5 to 20 minutes or as soon as the odds change (whichever come first).
The current odds for the Mega Millions "no winner" is -1200, so you could have $12,000 to win $1,000 and then you would have to wait a bit, if you wanted any more.
I have about 9k in the the casino and the rest is in an account that can quickly be converted to bitcoin.
5dimes have been around since 1996, but there is always at least a "small worry" trying to withdraw from any "non/semi-regulated"^^^ online casino, but I haven't had any trouble*** with them so far.
^^^: By this I mean, they are a casino that is either not licensed or it is licensed in Costa Rica (either way, it would be extremely difficult to win a dispute).
Note: Some sites say Costa Rica doesn't offer licenses and others do, so that is why I wrote "^^^" above like this (at the bare minimum they are "established in Costa Rica").
***: Make sure you read all the rules, as there is one that I didn't notice until recently that says something like, "if your phone number doesn't match the one you have registered to your account, then we won't pay you".
Note: This rule was important for me to find###, because I currently have a different phone number to the one I registered the account with. I just asked live help to change it, and everything is fine now.
###: The only problem I have with them from personal experience is that they don't email you when the rules have been changed/updated (so always read them before you make a deposit or withdrawal).
----
Summary :
Gambling bankroll: I think the biggest bank-roll you will need for this prop is up to $300k.
Largest Bet/"Could I bet $20k...?": Currently, the biggest bet you can have on one ticket is to "Win $1000" (odds less than +100) or "$1000 down" (odds +100 or more). The line will eventually reset and you can have another bet, if you want (so you could bet 20k in total, if you still thought it was a +EV bet after all the "line changes/resets").
"... someone will say you broke some sort of rule and you won't get it" : There is always at least a "small chance"#*# of that happening with any online casino. So you just have to make sure you read all the general rules and "applicable sports specific rules" before you make a deposit and withdrawal .
Note: I have always been paid, so far.
#*# (update about 610 pm): But that could also be true for a land based sports book / casino.
This thread looks a lot like promotion for the casino..no offence! like bet 1000 to win 20.. woe!
my experience and thousands of other experiences are really BAD:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/30393-beware-of-the-criminal-online-casinos/
speaking of gambler fallacy..
why would the wizard gamble if he knows losing is a law facing the gambler?? makes no sense at all..he only sez he’s gambling online because he is paid to say so!!
i and many others got a serious problem with the duplicity!!
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 02/04/2020"
Odds: -1100
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~95.53%
Estimated EV: about 4.21%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 15.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 95.53% (based on about 13.84 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
----
Odds:
MM Opened at -1165, and is now -1100
-1165 >>> -1100 >>> -1250
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 168M
Estimated sales: 13.84M
Probability of winner: 4.47%
Probability no winner: 95.53%
Fair line no winner: -2137
5 Dimes line: -1250
Player advantage: 3.17%
Wiz bet: $375 to win $30
Date: Feb 5
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 50M
Estimated sales: 12.22 M
Probability of winner: 4.1%
Probability no winner: 95.9%
Fair line no winner: -2339
5 Dimes line: -3000
Player advantage: -0.9%
Wiz bet: $0 to win $0
Opening Bal: 27,503
Finishing Bal: 27,890
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,890
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.36...%
Odds Taken: -1100
Actual EV: +4.03...%
Tickets Sold***: 14,372,495
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other:
The sales for the Mega Millions draw on the 01/31/20 has been amended from
13,907,441 to 14,124,243 tickets (according to the lotto report website).
So the Chance, Odds, and EV for that draw was: ~95.44%, -1200, and about +3.39% (respectively).
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 02/07/2020"
Odds: -1250
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~95.28%
Estimated EV: about 2.9%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 12.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 95.28% (based on about 14.62 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
----
Odds:
MM Opened at -1250 and hasn't moved.
Opening Bal: 27,890
Finishing Bal: 28,160
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 2,160
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.33...%
Odds Taken: -1250
Actual EV: +2.96...%
Tickets Sold***: 14,459,893
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 211M
Estimated sales: 15.26M
Probability of winner: 4.93%
Probability no winner: 95.07%
Fair line no winner: -1928
5 Dimes line: -1165
Player advantage: 3.23%
Wiz bet: $407.75 to win $35
Date: Feb 8
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 60M
Estimated sales: 12.56 M
Probability of winner: 4.21%
Probability no winner: 95.79%
Fair line no winner: -2275
5 Dimes line: -2300
Player advantage: -0.05%
Wiz bet: $0 to win $0
Quote: WizardDate: Feb 11
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 211M
Estimated sales: 15.26M
Probability of winner: 4.93%
Probability no winner: 95.07%
Fair line no winner: -1928
5 Dimes line: -1165
Player advantage: 3.23%
Wiz bet: $407.75 to win $35
Date: Feb 8
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 60M
Estimated sales: 12.56 M
Probability of winner: 4.21%
Probability no winner: 95.79%
Fair line no winner: -2275
5 Dimes line: -2300
Player advantage: -0.05%
Wiz bet: $0 to win $0
Do you have a running tally of your results like ksdjdj? I know I can go back through the thread to determine it, but I openly admit to being kind of lazy and maybe not caring THAT much.
Quote: kumaDo you have a running tally of your results like ksdjdj? I know I can go back through the thread to determine it, but I openly admit to being kind of lazy and maybe not caring THAT much.
No. I think I'm up a little. I'd be up a lot, but bet $837.50 on the Jan 29 Powerball, which is more than I've ever bet on a single drawing, which lost. I tend to perceive larger advantages as the jackpot goes up.
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 02/11/2020"
Odds: -1165
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~95.07%
Estimated EV: about 3.23%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 12.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: the chance figure was obtained from this post >>> here
----
MM odds (No Jackpot Winner):
Opened -1165 and I have seen no changes so far.
I just loaded more money into my account, so will be upping my bets.
Opening Bal: 28,160
Finishing Bal: 24,630
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,370)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.74...%
Odds Taken: -1165
Actual EV: +2.87...%
Tickets Sold***: 16,345,771
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
MM odds (No Jackpot Winner):
Was -1165 all the way through betting (at least from the three or four observations I made).
Quote: WizardThe Feb 12 PowerBall is at -2300, which can't be good.(snip)
Yeah, I will probably wait until the estimated EV is around 1% before I bet again.
Quote:(snip)I just loaded more money into my account, so will be upping my bets.
Too bad the MM jackpot was hit.
Quote: ksdjdjToo bad the MM jackpot was hit.
Dang. I'm sure that puts me in the red overall.
Now that you are upping your bets, what betting strategy do you plan to use (I personally think a "% of kelly" is best, see below) ?
"Kelly" or "flat-betting"
Kelly: A variation of kelly is probably the best for these types of bets, because the accuracy of our estimated tickets sold is usually quite close to the actual tickets sold and the chance of a single ticket winning the jackpot is always "known".
Flat betting: Flat bettors generally don't bet more than 5% of their betting bank-roll on sports, so it would probably be the superior way to bet when compared kelly if the "lotto bets" were closer to a true sports bet.
In conclusion, even though there may be other acceptable betting strategies to use, I think a "kelly strategy" would be best when compared to a "flat-betting strategy" for the "lotto bets" we are having.
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 02/12/2020"
Odds: -1700
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~95.68%
Estimated EV: about 1.30%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 7.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 95.68% (based on about 12.9 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
----
PB odds (No Jackpot Winner):
Opened -2300 then moved to -1700.
Quote: WizardI've been doing kind of an eye-balling Kelly, but I should take this more seriously and do proper Kelly. I don't have a set bankroll for this or any gambling any longer. Maybe I'll say it's $100,000 and do full Kelly.
Full Kelly is a big number when the odds are so short. Will be interested to see if you follow through.
Quote: WizardI've been doing kind of an eye-balling Kelly, but I should take this more seriously and do proper Kelly. I don't have a set bankroll for this or any gambling any longer. Maybe I'll say it's $100,000 and do full Kelly.
Remember (at least with my account) the limit is currently "to win $1,000" or "$1,000 down", so the most*** you are likely to get on at the current odds is $17,000 .
***: Then you will probably have to wait a bit if you want to bet anymore.
My account was "to win $2,000" at one stage for the "lotto bets" before it was reduced to the current "to win $1,000". It will be interesting to see what they let you on for.
----
Update (about 625 pm, pac time)
For most people following this thread, I would not recommend you do full kelly.
Also, it may sound like I am contradicting myself, but the Wiz knows what he is doing ^^^.
^^^: If you read what he has written carefully, he is not really betting "full kelly", since he doesn't "have a set bankroll..." (to me, this means that his bankroll is at least "$100,000").
Again, if anyone plans to follow these bets, I would recommend you bet between "1/3 and 2/3 Kelly" (one reason for this is if the actual EV is less than the estimated EV, then it would mean that you have "over bet your bank roll", if you had bet "full kelly" for that bet)
---
Update 2 (640 pm, pac time)
FYI, for the first two bets in this thread, I would have lost about $16,700 from a starting bank roll of $26,000 (if I was betting "full kelly")
See links below:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/#post681364
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/#post682158
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/#post708985
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/#post709584
I hope you didn't notice the odds change to -1700 for the Powerball, as that would be a loss of about $22k if managed to get the whole bet on @ "full kelly".
----
For the Powerball draw on the 02/12/20, I put down about 1,836 and lost.
Opening Bal: 24,630
Finishing Bal: 22,794
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (3,206)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.23...%
Odds Taken: -1700
Actual EV: +1.89...%
Tickets Sold***: 11,224,983
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other info:
You may find it interesting that if they had offered a bet that both the MM on the 02/11/20 and the PB on the 02/12/20 would be hit, then the fair odds would be about 503/1 (going by the actual tickets sold).
Also, PB odds opened at -2300 and closed at -1700 (for the No jackpot winner)
----
Other 2:
The powerball website still says "Results pending", but the lotto report link above and the other link below show that the Jackpot was hit.
https://www.usamega.com/powerball-drawing.asp?d=2/12/2020
Quote: ksdjdjWiz, I hope you didn't notice the odds change to -1700 for the Powerball, as that would be a loss of about $22k if managed to get the whole bet on @ "full kelly".
Yes, I was doing math on the drawing last night and realized a bet with a $100,000 bankroll and full Kelly would have been HUGE. While doing the math, the drawing happened and I got locked out of my bet.
Quote: WizardYes, I was doing math on the drawing last night and realized a bet with a $100,000 bankroll and full Kelly would have been HUGE. While doing the math, the drawing happened and I got locked out of my bet.
It still would have been a "good bet", but no matter how much of a "cold calculating machine" a person is, they would have to feel some negative emotion of losing that much on their first "big bet".
----
Odds:
MM and PB are both -3500 for the no jackpot winner
Note: I probably won't write another post about the odds until there is a potential for +EV.
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 02/21/2020"
Odds: -2500
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.79%
Estimated EV: about 0.66%
Bet Amount: ~ 5.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.79% (based on about 9.88 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
----
Opening Bal: 22,794
Finishing Bal: 22,844
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (3,156)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.91...%
Odds Taken: -2500
Actual EV: +0.79...%
Tickets Sold***: 11,224,983
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 02/25/2020"
Odds: -2300
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.74%
Estimated EV: about 0.94%
Bet Amount: ~ 7.3% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.74% (based on about 10.02 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
Quote: ksdjdjFor the Mega Millions draw on the 02/21/20, I put down 1,250 to win 50.
Opening Bal: 22,794
Finishing Bal: 22,844
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (3,156)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.91...%
Odds Taken: -2500
Actual EV: +0.79...%
Tickets Sold***: 11,224,983
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
The tickets sold figure is wrong (I forgot to copy and paste the tickets sold).
It should say: 9,481,835
All other figures should be correct.
----
Other:
The next PB is +EV, but I estimate it is somewhere between 0.1% an 0.6%, so too low (even for me).
Quote: ksdjdjBet Summary:
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 02/25/2020"
Odds: -2300
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.74%
Estimated EV: about 0.94%
Bet Amount: ~ 7.3% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.74% (based on about 10.02 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
Odds have changed to -2150 for the MM.
So it now has about a 1.24% estimated EV.
Opening Bal: 22,844
Finishing Bal: 22,916
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (3,084)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.98...%
Odds Taken: -2300
Actual EV: +1.20...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,259,114
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
I am currently not betting on the upcoming Mega Million draw because there is a "mismatch/error" for the date of the drawing.
Mega Millions Jackpot Winner - Tuesday, March 3, 2020 10:30 PM
31 Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 02/28/2020 +1300
32 No Jackpot Winner 02/28/2020 -2150
As you can see from above, there is a "date mismatch" (The relevant details, have NO strikethough).
Note: There will be a small edge on the "No winner" at these odds (-2150) but I will not be betting until the date has been fixed***.
***: I have already emailed them about it, so hopefully they will fix it in time for me to have a bet.
Important: In the past, when i first started betting with them, a similar thing happened to me and I didn't realise until after I had the bet and they wouldn't let me cancel^^^ it (of course the bet lost).
^^^: I requested the cancel before the game had been drawn, but after the prop had been closed (they close the betting on the "lotto prop bets" about 1/2 an hour before the draw).
Lucky I wasn't betting big (for me) back then.
----
Summary:
1. Always read the terms and conditions carefully
2. Always make sure the prop has no "wording errors/contradictions", before you make a bet.
Lastly, I still recommend 5d as a sportsbook/casino, but this is just to illustrate that the "management decision is generally final", and will nearly always### be in the favor of the book.
###: I have only received a favorable decision once out of the 9 disputes that I have had with online casinos/sportsbooks in the past
---
Spelling not checked.
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 02/29/2020"
Odds: -1900
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~95.57%
Estimated EV***: about 0.6%
Bet Amount: ~ 3.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 95.57% (based on about 13.25 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
***: The estimated EV is only worth about $5.24 to me, but if you can afford to "max bet at these odds" (bet $19,000) then it is worth ~$114.
---
Other:
I am glad that I didn't bet in the Mega Millions, because there is still a "date mismatch" (they haven't changed it yet, even though I emailed them about it).
Edit/Update (about 815 pm, Pac time):
I received a reply to my email from them after the draw, and they assured me that the bet would have been settled for the MM on the 02/28/2020 (even though there was a date discrepancy)
I also asked them if I was right or not the previous time a similar thing happened to me, and I was told that I didn't contact them in time to cancel the bet, as it was 17 minutes after the lotto had been drawn (I must have "misremebered" the time, because they sent me the time stamps of the live chat as proof)
I applogise for giving wrong information in my earlier thread (the info below was wrong )
Quote: ksdjdj(snip)Important: In the past, when i first started betting with them, a similar thing happened to me and I didn't realise until after I had the bet and they wouldn't let me cancel^^^ it (of course the bet lost).
^^^: I requested the "cancel" before the game had been drawn, but after the prop had been closed (they close the betting on the "lotto prop bets" about 1/2 an hour before the draw)..(snip)
Opening Bal: 22,916
Finishing Bal: 22,962
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (3,038)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.51...%
Odds Taken: -1900
Actual EV: +0.53...%
Tickets Sold***: 13,419,449
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/03/2020"
Odds: -2000
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.65%
Estimated EV: about 1.48%
Bet Amount: ~ 9.9% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.65% (based on about 10.31 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
---
Odds Update:
MM went from -2150 to -2000
PB went from -1900 to -1800 (will wait and see if it gets any better)
Opening Bal: 22,962
Finishing Bal: 23,076
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,924)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.83...%
Odds Taken: -2000
Actual EV: +1.67...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,727,679
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Quote: Jamespatrick12I want to share some links but I cant due to unsufficient requirements :(
If this website lets you, you can PM the links to me and I will then read them and post on your behalf ( if they are not links to advertisements, systems or fraudulent sites... ).
----
Bet Summary:
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/04/2020"
Odds: -1800
Estimated Chance ^^^: 95.71...%
Estimated EV: 1.03%
Bet Amount: ~ 6.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used a "blended estimate" of 12.8 million tickets +/- 0.8 million tickets for this draw (blend of my own estimate and the "Wiz's Calculator estimate") .
---
Odds Update(s):
PB: -1900 to -1800
MM: Opened -1800.
Quote: ksdjdjMarch 3rd, 2020 at 4:04:48 PM
(snip)
PB went from -1900 to -1800 (will wait and see if it gets any better) (Snip)
I should have waited longer, because the PB is currently -1700, and now has an estimated EV of about 1.34% (using the estimated chance figure from my previous post).
Opening Bal: 23,076
Finishing Bal: 23,156
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,844)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.80...%
Odds Taken: -1800
Actual EV: +1.12...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,523,260
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Bet Summary:
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 03/06/2020"
Odds: -1800
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.6%
Estimated EV: about 1.96%
Bet Amount: ~ 11.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now
^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.6% (based on about 10.46 "Tickets sold (in millions)")
