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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 2nd, 2019 at 5:47:52 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

... I can provide the exact formulas in my calculator if you're interested. For Power Ball there are actually three formulas, according to the jackpot amount.


That would be great, if you could give me all the formulas, thanks.

I tried out your following Mega Millions ticket estimate formulas that I found in an earlier post (see below):

"MM formula 1" = EXP(0.002862*C12)*8.56
Where "C12" is jackpot size in millions.
Note: for jackpots under ~440 million (As i think the point to stop using this one is for Jackpots over 440 million?)

"MM formula 2" = 264.7*LN(F12)-1581
Where "F12" is jackpot size in millions.
Note: for jackpots over ~440 million (As I think the point to stop using this one is for Jackpots under 440 million?)

When I was having a look at the formulas, I noticed there may be a small problem with "MM formula 2"
For Jackpot size (in millions): 500, your calculator says 64.06, and I get 64.01 using the above formula
For Jackpot size (in millions): 1000, your calculator says 247.56, and I get 247.48 using the above formula
For Jackpot size (in millions): 1500, your calculator says 354.9, and I get 354.81 using the above formula

These are very small differences, but I don't know why my figure is less than your figure (i think I am using the formula correctly?)


Edit (550 pm, pac time): I found out the answer to my "strike through" comment above, I just changed "MM formula 2" to the formula below (found it on one of your graphs that wasn't there when I first started writing this post)

"MM formula 2" = 264.74*LN(F12)-1581.2
where "F12" is jackpot size in millions
Note: for jackpots over ~440 million (As I think the point to stop using this one is for Jackpots under 440 million?)

---
I am going to watch the NFL now, so I will be away for a while.
Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:01:15 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

That would be great, if you could give me all the formulas, thanks.



Here is the code, which shows the formulas.


function powerball_onclick()
{
var myForm=document.form1;
var tickets=0;
var jackpot=parseInt(myForm.jackpot.value);
if (jackpot>=575)
{
tickets=505.3*Math.log(jackpot)-3110.5;
}
else if (jackpot>=300)
{
tickets=7.7461743*Math.pow(Math.E,0.004469*jackpot);
}
else
{
tickets=10.681057*Math.pow(Math.E,0.002696*jackpot);
}
var exp_winners=tickets*1000000/292201338;
var prob_win=1-Math.pow(Math.E,-1*exp_winners);
window.document.form1.tickets_sold.value=Math.round(100*tickets)/100;
window.document.form1.exp_winners.value=Math.round(100*exp_winners)/100;
window.document.form1.prob_win.value=Math.round(10000*prob_win)/100+"%";
}


function megamillions_onclick()
{
var myForm=document.form1;
var tickets=0;
var jackpot=parseInt(myForm.jackpot.value);
if (jackpot<=400)
{
tickets=8.56*Math.pow(Math.E,0.002862*jackpot);
}
else
{
tickets=264.74*Math.log(jackpot)-1581.2;
}
var exp_winners=tickets*1000000/302575350;
var prob_win=1-Math.pow(Math.E,-1*exp_winners);
window.document.form1.tickets_sold.value=Math.round(100*tickets)/100;
window.document.form1.exp_winners.value=Math.round(100*exp_winners)/100;
window.document.form1.prob_win.value=Math.round(10000*prob_win)/100+"%";
}
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 3rd, 2019 at 5:33:31 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

... For jackpots under $400 million:

t = 8.56*exp(0.002862*j)

For jackpots over $400 million:

t = 264.7*ln(j) - 1581....


I am still getting ~ 440 million as the point to swap your formula around for Mega Millions.
Can you type in 401 for "Jackpot size (in millions)" and click on the Mega Million button in the "ticket-sales-calculator"?

Note: I am getting 5.64 as the "Tickets sold (in millions)" figure when I type 401 on your page, but when I type in 400 I get 26.89 "Tickets sold (in millions)".

Note 2: When I type in 440 in a spreadsheet, I get 30.16 million tickets for the "exp" formula and 30.21 million tickets for the "ln" formula
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 3, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 4th, 2019 at 1:22:58 AM permalink
For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/03/19, I put 4,760 down to win 850.

Opening Bal: 24,390
Finishing Bal: 25,240
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (760)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.08...%
Odds Taken: -560 (my early bet was 2550 @ -500, and my late bet was 2210 @ -650)
Actual EV: +10.88...%
Tickets Sold***: 18,460,799
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Other info:

Because the bookie is consistently putting up good odds for this prop at the moment, I am going to put in some more money to "roughly double" my current 5d balance (so the results from now on will be simulated^^^).
^^^: I feel this is the "fairest" way to illustrate how these bets are performing, because if new people to this site read these posts, they could think I am trying to "force" my way into a "positive" result.
Note: This is just one reason I think "simulated" results are the best way for me to post my "result summary", going forward.

Also, if they put up odds for the Mega Millions draw on the 12/06/19, I will probably use 20.6 million tickets as my estimate.
Note: To get the above figure, I just used the link below and added a 1.25 million to the "Tickets sold (in millions): " figure, since I think the "ticket-sales-calculator" displayed an accurate estimate.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/

----
Odds Update (if you haven't had a bet yet for this draw, this is the new "Bet amount" you should have, if betting "1/3" Kelly):

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/04/19"
Odds: -1135
Estimated Chance: 95.07...% (based on an estimate of 14.75 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +3.45...%
Bet Amount: ~ 13.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Will I have a bet: I already had my "full bet" @ odds of -1200 and I am not going to have any more
(I could have another 0.1% or so if I wanted to, but that will only give me an extra ~$2.2 profit, if I win)

Note: from now on I will write the "bet summary" like the one I just did above, as it uses a bit less "vertical space" in the post.
Note 2: The time that I state I am having my bet in the "will i have a bet" part of my summary may become very important soon if the jackpot keeps rising, as more "smart" money comes in early, when the estimated edge is "big^*^" (if I think it is important to bet early I will say so at the time of the "bet summary" post).

^*^: see below for one example of when I think it is very important to bet early.

Quote: ksdjdj

(March 27th, 2019 at 4:58:47 PM, if you want to look up the whole post)

(snip) Prop: "32 No Jackpot Winner 03/27/19"
Odds: +195 ($2.95)
Chance of "No Jackpot Winner": 61.9327...%
EV: +82.7...% (snip)

(snip) The early odds were actually $3.65, 14 hours ago, but my bitcoin deposit with 5dimes was delayed, so I had to take $2.95.(snip)

(snip) the odds are now $2.55, and the +EV is about 58% (so it is still a really good bet) (snip)

(snip) Last time i looked the odds were $2.45, so the bet had a closing EV of 51.xxx%


Again, this is just one example where I will probably say "IMPORTANT: I recommend you get your bet on as early as possible" in the "Will I have a bet:" part of my "bet summary".

Note: I am thinking of using "(snip)" from now on instead of "..." , as I think "(snip)" is easier for people to understand (at least one other forum member does it this way, so I decided to copy them).

Also Note: for the above example, I would have had an estimated ev of about 126%, if I got on at the odds of $3.65

---
For the above post: the math should be right, but spelling/grammar has not been checked.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 4, 2019
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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December 4th, 2019 at 5:11:14 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The next drawing is on Tuesday for MegaMillions. Here are the details:

Jackpot = 266M
Estimated probability of winner = 5.88%
Fair line on no winner = -1600
5dimes lines:
Winner +400
No winner -500
Player advantage on no winner = 12.94%

My 5dimes balance is $443 and I'm go to all on on the no. Might try to move some more money into it. Anyone want to sell me Bitcoin?



Ka-ching! No winner.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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December 4th, 2019 at 5:26:05 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Anyone want to sell me Bitcoin?

I'm in the market are some Bitcoin as well. I have no idea what the deal is lately, but no private sellers seems to be selling it.

Reputable members or somebody with good references only.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 4th, 2019 at 12:41:18 PM permalink
I have said this earlier in the thread, but I think I read somewhere that of all the tickets bought, ~70% are "machine/random picks", and ~30% of the tickets are "not-so-random/player picks".
Also, the reason i mentioned the "70%/30%" thing above is, that the "no jackpot winner" estimated chance figure I am giving you would only be "100% accurate" if all the tickets were "random picks"

Note: this could increase the chance of both "no jackpot winner" and "multiple winners" slightly (but by an amount unknown to me).

Also, I like it when I see numbers like this (in the last draw they were 23 · 43 · 60 · 63 · 69, in the main part of the draw).

What is the chance that only one number is less than 32, and no numbers have an 8 in them in the main draw? (When I am betting on the "no prop", I like it when there aren't many "birthday numbers" or 8s***)
***: Since roughly 30% of the tickets are "not randomly picked", and plenty of people still believe "8" is a "very lucky" number.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 464
December 4th, 2019 at 2:01:38 PM permalink
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/06/19"
Odds: -700
Estimated Chance: 93.41...% (based on an estimate of 20.6 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +6.76...%
Bet Amount: If you bet now, ~ 15.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Will I have a bet: Yes, but not yet, as I think there is a very high chance that the odds on offer will get bigger, closer to the draw.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 464
December 4th, 2019 at 2:38:24 PM permalink
Important (especially for people with a very big bank roll):

Every so often I test 5d to see what the biggest bet*** I can have is.
Currently the max amount PER BET is, "to win $5000" or "5000 down" (see 1) and 2) below) :

***: 5d make me type my password in when I am about to confirm a bet , so that is why i can cancel it after finding out what the "limit" is

Important: I would NOT recommend you do the above test yourself, unless you are 100% certain you have to type a password in on your account to confirm the bet.

1) "To win $5000", for odds that are less than even money (eg, 35,000 @ -700)
2) "5000 down", for odds that are even money or more (eg, 5,000 @ +500)

Note: Earlier in the year it was: "To win $2000" or "2000 down"

To put this in perspective, for people with enough money to bet the "max bet" this is worth an estimated EV of: ~ $2,366, for the next MM draw @ the current odds of -700 ($35,000 x "estimated EV of 6.76% = $2,366)

This prop has come a long way from the "humble beginnings"^^^ of only getting "to win $500" or "500 down", when I first started betting on this around 2012/2013 or so.

^^^: This has turned from a "novelty bet with a player edge", into a "seemingly" fairly consistent play for the AP now (if I had known it would have grown like that when I first started writing a post about it, I probably would have stopped myself, but I can't do that now, lol).

---------------
I may see if it worth forming a "partnership", and get people to put in $1,000 + per person, with no fees/commissions charged by me (the only "fees" you will probably have to pay are the bitcoin*** transfer fees and other costs associated with bitcoin)

***: I will also accept Paypal and Skrill, but the funds will take longer, since 5d doesn't accept those methods of payment at the moment.

Any takers?

Note: I don't think this is breaking any forum rules, because I am not making any profit from fees or commissions, right?
(Please tell me to take this section of my post down, if I am wrong about this)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 4, 2019
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 4th, 2019 at 6:48:08 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I am still getting ~ 440 million as the point to swap your formula around for Mega Millions.
Can you type in 401 for "Jackpot size (in millions)" and click on the Mega Million button in the "ticket-sales-calculator"?



How do you know when to switch? I pretty much just eyeballed it, but it was a judgement call.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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