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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 30th, 2019 at 2:43:20 AM permalink
For the Mega Millins draw on the 11/29/2019, I put 4,455 down to win 810, I planned to bet about 19.1% of my bank roll.

Opening Bal: 23,250
Finishing Bal: 24,060
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,940)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.71...%
Odds Taken: -550
Actual EV: +11.94...%
Tickets Sold***: 16,414,337
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Other info:

No odds up yet for the next lotto draws (not uncommon for 5d to miss a draw, I have mentioned something like this before)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 30, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 30th, 2019 at 3:10:19 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

... Please give my Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales Calculator a try. I welcome all comments.


Good: Easy to use and quick.
Looks quite accurate to me for jackpots $440 million (and under) for Mega Millions, and for jackpots $290 million (and under) for Powerball.

"Not as good": To me it seems a bit "wonky" once the jackpot rises past the amounts mentioned above (i could be wrong, as i only quickly looked at this years' draws and ticket sales )

Note: In fairness there is probably a lot more data available for $40 m to $400 m jackpots, then there is for $400 m to $1,500 m jackpots

Overall: I would personally use the calculator for the next few draws, especially if I don't have time to estimate the ticket sales myself, as it is a lot faster/easier using the calculator.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 30, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 30th, 2019 at 11:19:22 AM permalink
Here are my bets for the next draws
Note: Some time between now and my last post they put up MM and PB lotto odds (I live in a Australia, so I only just woke up).

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Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/30/19"
Odds: -1100
Estimated Tickets: 12.25 to 13.75^^^ million (or $24.5 to $27.5 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: 95.403...% (based on 13.75 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +4.076...% (based on 13.75 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 14.9% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes
^^^: Since I have already done the work for it, I didn't use the figure of 14.37 million tickets from the Wiz's calculator (based on a PB jackpot of $110 million)

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Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/03/19"
Odds: -500
Estimated Tickets: 17.35*** to 19.35*** million (or $34.7 to $38.7 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: 93.805...% (based on 19.35 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +12.566...% (based on 19.35 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 20.9% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes (half now, and half closer to the time of the draw).
***: Since I haven't done any work/research on this one, I used the figure of 18.33 million tickets obtained from the Wiz's calculator as the "middle" amount for the above "estimated tickets" (I used $266 million as the jackpot)
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 30th, 2019 at 11:54:58 AM permalink
The next drawing is the Powerball today at 10:30.

Jackpot = 110 million
Chance of winner = 4.64%
5 Dimes line on no = -1100
Fair line = -2055
Player advantage = 4.03%

I've got $406 only in my account and will throw it all on it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
michael99000
michael99000
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November 30th, 2019 at 3:10:12 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The next drawing is the Powerball today at 10:30.

Jackpot = 110 million
Chance of winner = 4.64%
5 Dimes line on no = -1100
Fair line = -2055
Player advantage = 4.03%

I've got $406 only in my account and will throw it all on it.



Is it ever the case that the player edge is with betting on Yes there will be a winner ?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 30th, 2019 at 4:01:25 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Is it ever the case that the player edge is with betting on Yes there will be a winner ?


No, so far i have never seen a player edge on the "Yes there will be a winner".
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 30th, 2019 at 9:30:36 PM permalink
For the Powerball draw on the 11/30/2019, I put 3,630 down to win 330, I planned to bet about 14.9% of my bank roll.

Opening Bal: 24,060
Finishing Bal: 24,390
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,610)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.76...%
Odds Taken: -1100
Actual EV: +4.47...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,635,365
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Other info:

To work out an estimate for the next Powerball draw, I will probably use a combination of the links below:

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191130.pdf
>>>> Look under the column "sales" for the draw on the 2/04/19, and then divide by 2 to get a ticket estimate (because sales are in $'s, and tickets cost $2 per ticket).

and

https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/
>>>> Type in 120 in the cell next to "Jackpot size (in millions):" , then click on "Powerball", the "Tickets sold (in millions):" cell should then say "14.76 ",
It then says the esimated "Probability of winner(s)" is "4.76%", so the estimated probability of no jackpot winner is about 95.24%***
***: I will probably use 95.24% as my estimated chance for the next draw.

I will write a "bet summary", if/when 5d put up odds for the next Powerball

---
Update (about 1040 pm)

If you have never bet with 5dimes before, they can be a bit slow^^^ in "grading" props like the ones in this thread.
If you are in a hurry to get your winnings, you can contact live help, and they will usually speed up the payout.
^^^: This is the only type of bet I have with them that they can be slow to grade (all standard bets, eg NFL "spread bets" are graded very quickly, in my experience).

---
Update 2 (about 1140 pm, Pac Time)

I checked my account an hour later, and the bet has now been successfully graded/settled (the ticket says it was graded 12/1/19 2:19am, EST)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 1, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 1st, 2019 at 1:46:29 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

... Please give my Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales Calculator a try. I welcome all comments.


Comments (part 2):
I just did a bit more testing and realized I get a different figure to you for your Powerball "probability of winners(s)" figure
I think your calculator is using the "Mega millions" chances for when you hit the "Power Ball" button
For example: when I type in "Jackpot size (in millions): 1000" and then click the "Power Ball" button, it says: "Probability of winner(s): 71.52%" ***
***: when i do it manually with the same tickets sold figure I get, ~72.76%. (as the "Probability of winner(s)" figure)

Note: For Mega Millions I get the same "Probability of winner(s):" figure as your calculator (after rounding to the nearest 0.01% )
Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
December 1st, 2019 at 5:22:41 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: Wizard

... Please give my Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales Calculator a try. I welcome all comments.


Comments (part 2):
I just did a bit more testing and realized I get a different figure to you for your Powerball "probability of winners(s)" figure
I think your calculator is using the "Mega millions" chances for when you hit the "Power Ball" button
For example: when I type in "Jackpot size (in millions): 1000" and then click the "Power Ball" button, it says: "Probability of winner(s): 71.52%" ***
***: when i do it manually with the same tickets sold figure I get, ~72.76%. (as the "Probability of winner(s)" figure)

Note: For Mega Millions I get the same "Probability of winner(s):" figure as your calculator (after rounding to the nearest 0.01% )



For a jackpot of a billion, my calculator gets:

PowerBall: 71.52%
Mega Millions: 88%

There have been only four jackpots over 900M, so any figures for jackpots that high should be taken with a grain of salt. In fact here is the actual data:

MegaMillions:

$1,537,000 jackpot -- 370,000,000 ticket sales
$1,000,000 jackpot -- 280,000 ticket sales

Power Ball:

$1,580,000 jackpot -- 635,000,000 ticket sales
$947,000 jackpot -- 440,000,000 ticket sales

So, I think my calculator is functioning as I intended. You might argue that I made a mistake in my formulas, which I could take for jackpots that big.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 1st, 2019 at 5:29:36 AM permalink
The next drawing is on Tuesday for MegaMillions. Here are the details:

Jackpot = 266M
Estimated probability of winner = 5.88%
Fair line on no winner = -1600
5dimes lines:
Winner +400
No winner -500
Player advantage on no winner = 12.94%

My 5dimes balance is $443 and I'm go to all on on the no. Might try to move some more money into it. Anyone want to sell me Bitcoin?

Quote: 5dimes


59873****-1 12/1/19 8:31am $443.00 $88.60 Pending 12/3/19 10:30pm Lotto Other Sports 2 No Jackpot Winner 12/03/19 -500* vs Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 12/03/19

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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