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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 27th, 2019 at 10:03:32 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

why did you choose 14.4%? (that's 1/7)


Because it is about 1/3 Kelly^^^ , which is ("estimated ev" / (1/12)) / 3 = (3.6/0.083333...) / 3 = 14.4 %
Note: The simple kelly formula is, EV / odds, where EV is expressed as a "%" and odds are converted to a " to one" basis (then you just divide the figure you got in that simple formula by 2, 3, 5..., to give you a "safer" bet).

^^^there are plenty of pages out there about the Kelly formula, i think this one below is pretty good, as i found it easy to understand (at least compared to the Wikipedia one).
https://www.fool.com/investing/value/2006/10/31/how-to-calculate-the-kelly-formula.aspx

Note: doing "fractional Kelly" eg, "1/2 or 1/3 Kelly" is a lot safer than doing "full Kelly", "...a Kelly bettor has a 1/3 chance of halving a bankroll before doubling it..." and "...a “half kelly” bettor only has a 1/9 chance of halving their bankroll before doubling it."
See link >>> https://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/ >>>> then scroll down to "More Information"

------------------
For the Powerball draw on the 11/27/2019, I put 907.5 down to win 66, and then i put 2067 to win 159 (since i was using "bet amount (2)" mentioned in an earlier post, i wanted to bet about 13.0% of my bank roll in total).

Opening Bal: 23,025
Finishing Bal: 23,250
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,750)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.65...%
Odds Taken: -1322 (since i had one bet @ -1375, and the bigger bet @ -1300)
Actual EV: ~ +2.88...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,991,538
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

note: i had my bets down at -1375 and -1300 , so the 14.4% bank roll recommendation was only true if you "held off" on any early bets and then managed to get the -1200 odds that were available closer to game time
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 28, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 27th, 2019 at 10:30:17 PM permalink
For the next Mega Millions draw there is a good chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/29/19"
Odds: -550
Estimated Tickets: 17.5 to 20.5 million (or $35 to $41 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~93.44...% (based on 20.5 million tickets)
Estimated EV: ~ +10.44...% (based on 20.5 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 19.1% of bank roll (if you decide to bet now)
Will I have a bet: yes, but not yet***
***: The trend seems to be that the odds get bigger for the "no prop" the longer you wait, so I will try and have my bet as close to the draw time as allowed^*^
^*^: 5d close betting about 30 minutes before the draw, so I will probably have my bet 1 hour to 1.5 hours before the draw (at least at the moment)

---
Other info:
I will put up a betting summary for the next Powerball a lot closer to the draw date
Note: 5d have been known in the past to not put up odds for every draw, so if that happens I won't bother putting up my ticket estimates.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 27, 2019
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 28th, 2019 at 4:21:49 AM permalink
Sorry for the late arrival.

I can confirm the 5dimes odds at the time of this post are:
Yes+425
No -550

The odds of hitting the MegaMillions and PowerBall are pretty similar so I'm going to assume ticket sales are about the same for both. That said, I show a relationship between jackpot size and ticket sales is exponential, up to jackpots of about half a billion, in my PowerBall page.

In particular, if j is the jackpot size (in millions), then ticket sales (in millions) can be estimated as 7.9034*exp(0.0056*j).

That formula gives us ticket sales of 30.8 million.

The probability of hitting the MegaMillions is 1/302,575,350. So the probability of nobody winning, assuming all quick picks is (1-1/302,575,350)^30,800,000 = 0.9032. That makes the "no winner" fair at -933.

They do update the jackpot size about twice a day, as I recall, so the fair price could drop.

Perhaps I'll look at actual MegaMillions sales data, as opposed to the PowerBall estimate.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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ksdjdj
November 28th, 2019 at 8:35:01 AM permalink
To expand on my last post, I did some analysis based on actual MegaMillions sales. As with Powerball, the relationship between jackpot and sales is exponential, up to a point. When jackpots get to about the half billion range, the relationship becomes logarithmic. It is rather arbitrary where to separate the two, but here is how I did it.

For jackpots under $400 million:

t = 8.56*exp(0.002862*j)

For jackpots over $400 million:

t = 264.7*ln(j) - 1581.

Where j = jackpot size(in million) and t = number of tickets sold (in millions)

Putting in the current jackpot of $243 million gives us an estimate of 17.16 million ticket sales.

Using the same math as my last post, that suggests a probability of somebody hitting the jackpot of 5.51%, which equates to a fair line on the "no" of -1714.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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ksdjdj
November 28th, 2019 at 9:47:19 AM permalink
Mike, ks....

Serious question.... whenever something looks too good to be true I try and find something that isn't apparent. WHY do you guys think that there would be such a misquided line for these bets? Is there a giant bias towards people betting the yes on such bets, regardless of EV?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 28th, 2019 at 1:03:32 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

... WHY do you guys think that there would be such a misquided line for these bets? Is there a giant bias towards people betting the yes on such bets, regardless of EV?


I personally think there is a big bias towards the public betting the yes on these bets.

Reasons/observations:
1(a): The public must be betting on the Yes prop more than the No prop, because I can't think of any other reason why they would generally reduce the Yes prop odds/increase the No odds the closer you get to the draw (at least for the "Early Jackpot Rolls").

1(b): When they first brought the product out, I think they used to advertise something like "now you can bet on the outcome of the PB and MM, SHARE IN THE CELEBRATION OF THE JACKPOT BEING WON BY BETTING ON THE YES..."
In short, they were heavily advertising the "yes side", but they still offered both bets on the yes and the no (so they were trying to appeal to/entice the public to mainly bet on the "yes" ?)

2: Generally for "Prop" bets, the no is the better bet, I think the Wiz has said something about this on his site,
I can't remember where it was on the site, but I think this is true more often than not.

3 (Least likely reason, but possible); They could still think that a ticket is worth only a $1? (dubious)
This would reduce the chance of the No prop quite a bit, but there will still be some slightly + EV plays on the No,
If the tickets were $1 per ticket for the last MM draw my estimated EV would have been. ~ +0.1% and the real EV would have been ~ +1.7%, at the -700 offered.

4 (least important, but still interesting to me): The "no prop" is becoming +EV, a lot earlier in the jackpot roll, compared to in the past.
In the past I would see an estimated No prop EV of between -2% to +2% for jackpots under $200 million (so I wouldn't bother looking at it, until the jackpot was at least $200 million, back then).
Note: I know the MM is above $200 mil , but the PB is only just passing the $100 mil and I can get "good value" no prop bets on that one at the moment, too.

Getting a bit of a fever, and I am not the best at writing even when well, so hope the above makes sense, because I have not checked it for any mistakes (sorry).

-------------------
In case I am too sick to want to write about the next powerball, here is a link below that will give you a very good ticket sales estimate (remember to divide ticket sales in $ by 2, since it is $2 per ticket).
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
>>> then click on "view" under "Official Lottery Estimation Worksheet" and once you have clicked "view", the ticket estimate in $'s will be under the heading "sales".
NB: on the day of the draw, they do a new "sales estimate", so you should have a look at that one as well ( more often than not, it is the "better/more accurate" estimate).

I will probably still write a small post of what the current odds are when 5d put up the odds (but let someone else work out the "chance and EV" for the next PB draw).

My ticket sales for the next PB draw, will probably be: 12.25 to 13.75 million (so I would use 13.75 million as the figure for "chance calculations" when betting on the no prop).
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 28th, 2019 at 1:47:11 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Mike, ks....

Serious question.... whenever something looks too good to be true I try and find something that isn't apparent. WHY do you guys think that there would be such a misquided line for these bets? Is there a giant bias towards people betting the yes on such bets, regardless of EV?



Good question. We see these kind of bets every year in the Superbowl, most infamously the "no safety." Recreational gamblers hate laying steep odds and they like to bet on things TO happen. It creates value the other way.

I had about $300 only in my 5Dimes account and bet it all on "no winner."

Would you be interested in honoring the 5Dimes lines?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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November 29th, 2019 at 9:36:40 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Good question. We see these kind of bets every year in the Superbowl, most infamously the "no safety." Recreational gamblers hate laying steep odds and they like to bet on things TO happen. It creates value the other way.

I had about $300 only in my 5Dimes account and bet it all on "no winner."

Would you be interested in honoring the 5Dimes lines?

so if the line moves, you keep the same odds as when you bought the ticket?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 29th, 2019 at 12:03:48 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so if the line moves, you keep the same odds as when you bought the ticket?


Yes, you get to keep the same odds as when you bought the ticket.
As far a I know the only time(s) they ever change the odds / cancel the ticket is if:

"Immediately upon discovery, wagers placed on an event with an obvious erroneous line resulting from human error will be graded no action or voided...
...If a wager with an erroneous line is not voided before the game/play begins, Management reserves the right to remedy the odds to a fair market price which would have been available at the time the wager was placed.... Repeat offenders will not be tolerated."

Note: the above has never happened to me, for my normal or lotto bets (i have been betting on the MM and PB results since ~2012 with 5d)
Note 2: the above (or similar) is a fairly standard rule for international-online sports books (I don't know if this rule is standard for US-online books?)

--------
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/29/19"
Odds: -550
Estimated Tickets: 17.5 to 20.5 million (or $35 to $41 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~93.44...% (based on 20.5 million tickets)
Estimated EV: ~ +10.44...% (based on 20.5 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 19.1% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes***
***: At the time of this post the odds are still -550, and I will be away from my PC for the next 14-15 hours so I will have my bet now (if i had access to my PC later, then I would have waited a bit longer^^^, see below)
^^^:5d close betting about 30 minutes before the draw, so I will probably have my bet 1 hour to 1.5 hours before the draw (at least at the moment)

-----
Other info:

There are still no odds up for PB, below is a brief summary for the "no jackpot winner" (in case they put it up later)

Game: Powerball
Date: 11/30/19
Prop: "no jackpot winner" (if/when it becomes available)
Est Tickets: 12.25 to 13.75 million
Est chance: ~ 95.403...% (based on 13.75 mil tickets)
The above chance converted to "fair" odds: about -2075
Minimum odds needed, (before I would have a bet): -1350

Note: I have said this before, but it is not strange for 5dimes to miss a draw (after they miss a draw, the odds can sometimes go back to what you would expect them to be^*^)
^*^: The odds may become - EV for both the "yes" and the "no" prop, see example:
Eg: for the draw after the next PB game, they could put up -3000 for "no", and +1500 for "yes" (i have seen something similar to this before).
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 29th, 2019 at 2:57:44 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so if the line moves, you keep the same odds as when you bought the ticket?



Yes.

In other news, I just updated my Power Ball data and created a little calculate the probability of a jackpot for any jackpot size in the Power Ball or MegaMillions. Please give my Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales Calculator a try. I welcome all comments.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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