No Jackpot Winner Powerball Prop Bet

Quote: Ace2

On the first MM draw after a jackpot win, there are about 11 million (t) tickets sold on average. There are 302,575,350 (c) combinations.

((c - 1) / c)^t =~ 96.4% chance of a rollover. So fair odds would be about -2700.

I must be missing something or -550 is a very +ev opportunity

The next Mega millions has rolled to ~307 million cash value.
I think it is the powerball that is starting a new roll?

I believe the reason it appears to be a positive EV is because far more than 35 million tix should be sold. Look at the history - it seems like after the second jackpot over 400 million doesn’t hit, this is when ticket sales explode to 50 or 60 million.

Odds of -550 is an implied probability of 11/13.

Log (11/13) / Log ((c - 1) / c) = 50,546,448 which is the breakeven level for the bet. Less tickets sold it’s positive EV, more tickets sold it’s negative EV.

All historical data is on lottoreport.com

You could be right, I will have a look in about 12 hours and update.
I know I am repeating myself but the mega millions is a lot harder to pick the sales for than powerball .
Also, I don’t live in the US so I don’t get to see the “hype” in the news etc.

Thanks for putting the “log function” up there , I have been looking for it on the internet but haven’t found it shown in a way I could understand.

Update (about 1 pm Pac time)

38 - 46 million is the new estimated ticket sales.

Quote: ksdjdj

...Also, I don’t live in the US so I don’t get to see the “hype” in the news etc...

Usually not a ton of hype unless something crosses the 1 billion threshold.

For yesterday's Mega Millions I put 2255 down to win 410 (roughly 10.5% of bank roll).

Starting Bal: 21,450

Finishing Bal: 21,860

Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 89.675...%

Odds Taken: -550

EV: +5.97...%

Tickets Sold***: 32,973,184 (inc "just the jackpot")

*** http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Interesting to note that 25 was the only number less than 31 drawn (can't put a figure on how much that is worth, but it has to be good for betting on the "no winner prop")

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Early estimated number of tickets for 06/07/19 Mega Millions draw.

49 - 55 million (52 million used for working out estimated chance below)

estimated chance for "no winner": 84.209...%

odds offered: none yet for this draw

minimum odds I would like for the no prop: -330

minimum odds I would like for the yes prop^^^: +660

^^^: I have never seen the yes prop @ +EV, so this is just "wishful thinking"

still no odds on offer***

***: in the past they sometimes they skipped a draw before they put up odds again, so nothing to worry about.

If 5dimes don't put any odds up within 5 hours, I will not be able to bet on this draw.

I will not be be updating my sales estimate for this draw, so just use my early one if they put up odds between now and the drawing on the 06/07/2019, for the Mega Millions.

Did they end up putting lines up? I was curious what they were and appreciate your updates on the odds, but also how you're doing and betting. Interesting stuff!

Quote: Romes

Did they end up putting lines up? I was curious what they were and appreciate your updates on the odds, but also how you're doing and betting. Interesting stuff!

For the Mega Millions I don't know if they put up lines as I had a really busy day.
They put a lines for the Powerball between my last post and this one.
Since it looks like the Mega Millions was hit, I will not be posting any lotto bets for a while..

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There was a ~87.145...% chance of no jackpot winner (based on ticket sales below)

Ticket Sales were: 41,631,077*** (inc "Just the Jackpot")

***: since the "no jackpot winner" side is generally the side that can have value , I prefer my estimate to be more than the actual sales.

Result: Jackpot was hit according to lotto report website.

I am surprised to announce that there is a small player edge for the Powerball and Mega Millions this week (based on my estimates for ticket sales).
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For the next Mega Millions draw there is a probable +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 08/13/19"
Odds: - 2150
Estimated Tickets: 9.5 million to 10.8 million
Estimated Chance: ~96.4935...% (based on 10.8 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ 0.9816...% (based on 10.8 million...)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 7% of bank roll (if i was having a bet)
Will I have a bet: no

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For the next Powerball draw there is a possible +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: " No Jackpot Winner 08/14/19"
Odds: - 1800
Estimated Tickets: 13.4 million to 15 million
Estimated Chance: ~94.99608...% (based on 15 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ 0.27364...% (based on 15 million...)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 1.64% of bank roll (if i was having a bet)
Will I have a bet: no

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One reason for this update is because the no jackpot winner is slightly positive "a lot earlier than usual".

note: because I haven't had an actual bet on these two props, I will not be updating the sales estimates for these draws

also note: remember Mega Millions and Powerball cost $2 per ticket (useful for comparing actual ticket sales against my estimates)