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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 3rd, 2019 at 7:39:59 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

On the first MM draw after a jackpot win, there are about 11 million (t) tickets sold on average. There are 302,575,350 (c) combinations.

((c - 1) / c)^t =~ 96.4% chance of a rollover. So fair odds would be about -2700.

I must be missing something or -550 is a very +ev opportunity


The next Mega millions has rolled to ~307 million cash value.
I think it is the powerball that is starting a new roll?
Ace2
Ace2
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ksdjdj
June 3rd, 2019 at 10:19:20 PM permalink
I believe the reason it appears to be a positive EV is because far more than 35 million tix should be sold. Look at the history - it seems like after the second jackpot over 400 million doesnít hit, this is when ticket sales explode to 50 or 60 million.

Odds of -550 is an implied probability of 11/13.

Log (11/13) / Log ((c - 1) / c) = 50,546,448 which is the breakeven level for the bet. Less tickets sold itís positive EV, more tickets sold itís negative EV.

All historical data is on lottoreport.com
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 4th, 2019 at 1:10:21 AM permalink
You could be right, I will have a look in about 12 hours and update.
I know I am repeating myself but the mega millions is a lot harder to pick the sales for than powerball .
Also, I donít live in the US so I donít get to see the ďhypeĒ in the news etc.

Thanks for putting the ďlog functionĒ up there , I have been looking for it on the internet but havenít found it shown in a way I could understand.

Update (about 1 pm Pac time)

38 - 46 million is the new estimated ticket sales.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 4, 2019
Romes
Romes
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June 4th, 2019 at 1:56:43 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

...Also, I donít live in the US so I donít get to see the ďhypeĒ in the news etc...

Usually not a ton of hype unless something crosses the 1 billion threshold.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 5th, 2019 at 4:37:18 AM permalink
For yesterday's Mega Millions I put 2255 down to win 410 (roughly 10.5% of bank roll).

Starting Bal: 21,450

Finishing Bal: 21,860

Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 89.675...%

Odds Taken: -550

EV: +5.97...%

Tickets Sold***: 32,973,184 (inc "just the jackpot")

*** http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Interesting to note that 25 was the only number less than 31 drawn (can't put a figure on how much that is worth, but it has to be good for betting on the "no winner prop")

----------------

Early estimated number of tickets for 06/07/19 Mega Millions draw.

49 - 55 million (52 million used for working out estimated chance below)

estimated chance for "no winner": 84.209...%

odds offered: none yet for this draw

minimum odds I would like for the no prop: -330

minimum odds I would like for the yes prop^^^: +660

^^^: I have never seen the yes prop @ +EV, so this is just "wishful thinking"
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 6th, 2019 at 12:22:37 PM permalink
still no odds on offer***

***: in the past they sometimes they skipped a draw before they put up odds again, so nothing to worry about.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 7th, 2019 at 12:14:30 AM permalink
If 5dimes don't put any odds up within 5 hours, I will not be able to bet on this draw.

I will not be be updating my sales estimate for this draw, so just use my early one if they put up odds between now and the drawing on the 06/07/2019, for the Mega Millions.
Romes
Romes
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ksdjdj
June 7th, 2019 at 10:15:22 PM permalink
Did they end up putting lines up? I was curious what they were and appreciate your updates on the odds, but also how you're doing and betting. Interesting stuff!
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 8th, 2019 at 4:28:28 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Did they end up putting lines up? I was curious what they were and appreciate your updates on the odds, but also how you're doing and betting. Interesting stuff!


For the Mega Millions I don't know if they put up lines as I had a really busy day.
They put a lines for the Powerball between my last post and this one.
Since it looks like the Mega Millions was hit, I will not be posting any lotto bets for a while..

--------
There was a ~87.145...% chance of no jackpot winner (based on ticket sales below)

Ticket Sales were: 41,631,077*** (inc "Just the Jackpot")

***: since the "no jackpot winner" side is generally the side that can have value , I prefer my estimate to be more than the actual sales.

Result: Jackpot was hit according to lotto report website.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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August 13th, 2019 at 5:57:56 AM permalink
I am surprised to announce that there is a small player edge for the Powerball and Mega Millions this week (based on my estimates for ticket sales).
-------
For the next Mega Millions draw there is a probable +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 08/13/19"
Odds: - 2150
Estimated Tickets: 9.5 million to 10.8 million
Estimated Chance: ~96.4935...% (based on 10.8 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ 0.9816...% (based on 10.8 million...)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 7% of bank roll (if i was having a bet)
Will I have a bet: no

-------
For the next Powerball draw there is a possible +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: " No Jackpot Winner 08/14/19"
Odds: - 1800
Estimated Tickets: 13.4 million to 15 million
Estimated Chance: ~94.99608...% (based on 15 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ 0.27364...% (based on 15 million...)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 1.64% of bank roll (if i was having a bet)
Will I have a bet: no

-----

One reason for this update is because the no jackpot winner is slightly positive "a lot earlier than usual".

note: because I haven't had an actual bet on these two props, I will not be updating the sales estimates for these draws

also note: remember Mega Millions and Powerball cost $2 per ticket (useful for comparing actual ticket sales against my estimates)

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