ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 902
May 30th, 2019 at 6:19:00 PM permalink
There is a +EV opportunity for the next draw for Mega Millions at the website below:

https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_178

scroll down to > Other sports > and click on Lotto

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Bet details:

Prop: "36 No Jackpot Winner 05/31/19"
Odds: -600
Chance of "No Jackpot Winner": 91.9177...%***
EV: +7.237...%
Bet size: about 14.5% of current "betting bank-roll"
"staking method": 1/3 kelly

***: Based on an estimate of \$51 million worth of tickets sold (25.5 million tickets)
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Change of betting style:
Since I am missing out on some good +EV opportunities, I am now betting on all +EV outcomes that are either "greater than +20% estimated EV" or have an EV greater than "('odds'-1)/3^^^", whichever is less.

^^^: For the above game, the odds are about \$1.166666, so the formula would look like this:

(1.166666-1)/3 = 0.166666/3 = 0.05555... =~5.555...%

Since 7.237% EV is greater than 5.555...%, I decided to have the bet.

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Other Info:

At least \$93 million worth of tickets need to be sold for the bet to near the "break-even" EV @ odds of -600.
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
• Posts: 1761
May 30th, 2019 at 7:48:19 PM permalink
They sold about 22.3 million tickets for last draw. This is a very rough approximation by taking number of tickets hitting just the powerball and dividing by the probability of winning said amount.

I have to think given the size and the attention that this drawing is getting that they will sell well in excess of 25.5 million tickets.
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 902
May 30th, 2019 at 9:55:52 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

They sold about 22.3 million tickets for last draw. This is a very rough approximation by taking number of tickets hitting just the powerball and dividing by the probability of winning said amount.

I have to think given the size and the attention that this drawing is getting that they will sell well in excess of 25.5 million tickets.

Thanks for the post, I wouldn't be surprised if the ticket sales are above 30 million, but I am not going to change my early estimate for the draw (at this time).

Here is one of the methods I use to estimate ticket sales, divide the CVO*** increase from the previous draw to the current draw and divide by "Allocated From Sales To Fund Jackpot", which is .376509^^^ at the moment.

So, using the method above we get (\$281.1 million - \$263.3 million) / 0.376509 = 17.8/0.376509 = ~ \$47.276... million worth of tickets (or ~23.638 million tickets).

*** https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html

^^^ http://www.lottoreport.com/MMRules.htm

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I have said in past posts that the Mega Millions is "harder" to estimate ticket sales for compared to Powerball, because they don't have an "Official Lottery Estimation Worksheet" anymore (Powerball^*^ still does, see below))

^*^ https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 30, 2019
Mooseton
Joined: Sep 6, 2010
• Posts: 593
May 30th, 2019 at 9:57:30 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

They sold about 22.3 million tickets for last draw. This is a very rough approximation by taking number of tickets hitting just the powerball and dividing by the probability of winning said amount.

I have to think given the size and the attention that this drawing is getting that they will sell well in excess of 25.5 million tickets.

What is the significance of 25.5 mil tickets sold?
\$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 902
Thanks for this post from:
May 30th, 2019 at 10:15:56 PM permalink
Quote: Mooseton

What is the significance of 25.5 mil tickets sold?

That figure is used to estimate the chance of the "jackpot not being won/or/hit".

If 1 ticket is sold, the chance of it not winning = 302,575,349/302,575,350

If 25.5 million random tickets are sold, the chance of the jackpot not being hit is:

(302,575,349/302,575,350)^ 25.5 million = 91.917704249840610532312914556221%.

Note: this is just an estimate, as we can't know how many tickets are sold until after the draw (i usually try to do two estimates, with the one on game day generally being my "better" estimate)

I am not going to say how I reached 25.5 million as an estimate, but if you look at my previous reply above, it explains how you can get an estimate of ticket sales based on the CVO.
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5490
May 31st, 2019 at 12:19:41 AM permalink
*edit* nvm I'm "slow" and didn't see "lotto" the first time I went to the page.

Where do they get the estimates for the number of tickets sold? Based off history/jackpot size, or ? I also assume the "probability of no jackpot" is the sum of odds of hitting and the number of estimated tickets sold?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 902
Thanks for this post from:
May 31st, 2019 at 12:59:15 PM permalink
Sorry, don't have time for a full post , so below is just the updated estimate range for ticket sales.

Most likely the ticket sales will be between: 24 to 29 million (26.5 million, middle)

THis will reduce the estimated EV slightly but it should still be a good bet,
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 18638
May 31st, 2019 at 1:13:02 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Sorry, don't have time for a full post , so below is just the updated estimate range for ticket sales.

Most likely the ticket sales will be between: 24 to 29 million (26.5 million, middle)

THis will reduce the estimated EV slightly but it should still be a good bet,

How much can you reasonably get down on this bet before thy stop you or change the line dramatically? Is it just at one location?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 902
June 1st, 2019 at 4:13:27 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

How much can you reasonably get down on this bet before thy stop you or change the line dramatically? Is it just at one location?

You can bet to win \$2,000 for less than even money odds (eg \$12,000 @ -600) and you can bet \$2000 on odds greater than even money (eg \$2000 @ +450).

Note: if the odds change, you can have another bet at the new odds.

Note 2: About a year ago, the limits were \$500, but I am happy that they increased it to \$2000.

I think it is just available at 5d.

----------------
For yesterday's Mega Millions I put 3000 down to win 500 (roughly 14.5% of bank roll).

Starting Bal: 20,950

Finishing Bal: 21,450

Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 90.544...%

Odds Taken: -600

EV: +5.635...%

Tickets Sold***: 30,053,111^^^ (inc "just the jackpot")

*** http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

^^^: rsactuary posted earlier that my estimate was probably low, and they were right.

---------------------------
Update:

"How much can you reasonably get down on this bet before thy stop you or change the line dramatically?"

In another post on this thread, the odds changed from \$3.65 (when i first notice the odds on offer for that game) to \$2.95 (got my first \$2000 on at this price) then they went to \$2.55 (had another \$1400 at this price) and closed at \$2.45.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 1, 2019
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 902
June 1st, 2019 at 4:33:02 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

...Where do they get the estimates for the number of tickets sold? Based off history/jackpot size, or ? I also assume the "probability of no jackpot" is the sum of odds of hitting and the number of estimated tickets sold?

Thanks for the post

Don't know how they work out the official estimated sales***, they only let the public see the Powerball estimates now (see links below).

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html

***: notice how the Powerball has a column that says "Official Lottery Estimation Worksheet" were you can actually view the official estimates, yet Mega Millions does not.

I think your 2nd question is wrong (if i am reading it right)
"Sum of odds" reads to me that it is more like a "raffle" or a draw where each ticket is different from every other ticket.
In the Mega Millions and other lottery draws, tickets can repeat, so even if they sell more than 300 million tickets, it doesn't guarantee that the jackpot will bet hit.

As I have said in other posts, communication isn't a strength of mine, so feel free to correct me if I misread your post.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 1, 2019