ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 841
August 14th, 2019 at 11:47:57 PM permalink
The Mega millions and Powerball were not hit and the tickets sales*** for the draws on the 13th and 14th were: 9,217,473 for Mega Millions and, 13,887,244 for Powerball.

***: according to this link >>> https://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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5dimes have put up new lines for "Mega Millions Jackpot Winner - Friday, August 16, 2019"

The odds for "...Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 08/16/19" are: +1575
The odds for "...No Jackpot Winner 08/16/19" are -3150

My sales estimate is between 9.5 million to 11.45 million tickets.

For the 11.45 million tickets sold estimate, there is an EV of -37.799...% for the "yes prop"
and an EV of -0.65676% for the "no prop".

For the 9.5 million tickets sold estimate, there is an EV of -48.226...% for the "yes prop"
and an EV of -0.01445...% for the "no prop" (based on 9.5 million sales).

Since all the estimated values are negative, I will not be having a bet on this draw.

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I don't plan to write another post until the prop has a high potential for a + EV play.

Also, I usually don't find potential +EV plays until the jackpot reaches about \$250 to \$350 million, so that was why I was surprised that there was a slight + EV for the draws on the 13th and 14th.
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 14374
August 15th, 2019 at 6:11:40 AM permalink
Quote: x

I don't plan to write another post until the prop has a high potential for a + EV play.

Also, I usually don't find potential +EV plays until the jackpot reaches about \$250 to \$350 million, so that was why I was surprised that there was a slight + EV for the draws on the 13th and 14th.

All this math is beyond me but I would think that ticket sales estimates are a fatal defect to any calculation that does not supply a significantly positive expectation. That 'one additional ticket' can result in a prize having to be shared.
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
• Posts: 1641
Thanks for this post from:
August 15th, 2019 at 6:13:38 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

All this math is beyond me but I would think that ticket sales estimates are a fatal defect to any calculation that does not supply a significantly positive expectation. That 'one additional ticket' can result in a prize having to be shared.

Sharing prizes not the issue for these purposes though. This is analysis of a Yes/No prop bet about whether at least one person will win jackpot on a given day.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 14374
Thanks for this post from:
August 15th, 2019 at 6:19:00 AM permalink
Oh, so its not related to a buyer of a lottery ticket having a positive expectation, but only toparticipants in The Bookies bet. I get it. Tnx.
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 841
Thanks for this post from:
November 20th, 2019 at 3:47:03 PM permalink
There is a solid player edge for the Mega Millions this week (based on my estimates for ticket sales).
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For the next Mega Millions draw there is a decent +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/22/2019"
Odds: -800
Estimated Tickets: 15 million to 16.5 million
Estimated Chance: ~94.6928...% (based on 16.5 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ +6.53% (based on 16.5 million...)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 17.4% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes

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Other info:
Chance of a single Mega Million ticket winning jackpot: 1/302,575,350

Ticket sales need to be above 35.6 million before this becomes a bad bet (in other words \$71.2 million worth of tickets, since it is \$2 per ticket)

There is a small edge (less than +1.2%)for the next powerball "no prop"(odds -1800) but I will not have a bet, so didn't do a post like I normally do for it.

Been sick for a couple of months, so that is why i have been away from my pc for a while

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Update ~355 pm (pac time)

FYI: According to the link below the last time the ticket sales was near \$71.2 million was when the jackpot was \$475 million on 06/04/19

https://www.lottoreport.com/mmsales.htm

The estimated jackpot is \$208 Million for the draw i am betting the "no prop" on
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 20, 2019
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
• Posts: 1641
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November 20th, 2019 at 3:48:32 PM permalink
Hope you are hale and fully healthy again.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 841
November 21st, 2019 at 2:34:25 PM permalink
Mega millions is still -800 for the no prop
Powerball is now -1600 for the no prop (if it gets to -1500, I will probably write a “what I am betting post” about it)
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 841
November 23rd, 2019 at 3:17:31 AM permalink
For the Mega Millions draw on the 11/22/2019, I put 3800 down to win 475 (bet roughly 17.4% of bank roll).

Starting Bal: 21,860
Finishing Bal: 22,335
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.66...%
Odds Taken: -800
Actual EV: ~ +6.5.%
Tickets Sold***: 16,601,489 (all tickets, including "just the jackpot")
*** http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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For the Powerball game being drawn on the 11/23/2019, the "no prop" @ -1600, will likely have a small + edge ( see link below to get an estimate of the ticket sales for that game).

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
>>>> then click on the "view" link under the heading "Official Lottery Estimation Worksheet"

Note: Estimating Mega Millions ticket sales is "more work" than Powerball, because they only publish estimated ticket sales for Powerball, on the txlottery website
Note 2: since i am not having a bet, i will not be posting my proper summary for this Powerball game.
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 841
November 23rd, 2019 at 2:51:47 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

...Powerball is now -1600 for the no prop (if it gets to -1500, I will probably write a “what I am betting post” about it)

Powerball is -1450, so i am going to have a bet, see summary below:

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For the next Powerball draw there is an extremely high chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/23/2019"
Odds: -1450
Estimated Tickets: ~12.12 million*** (or \$24.24 million worth of tickets)
***: I did the estimated tickets sales the "quick way" that is why I did not put it up as an "estimated tickets range" this time (more info to do with this at bottom of post)
Estimated Chance: ~95.937...%
Estimated EV: ~ +2.55...%
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 12.3% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes

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When the estimated sales are "low", i normally just use the txlotto website's "Official Lottery Estimation Worksheet" as my main or only way of estimating tickets sales, since I have never seen it too far away from the actual sales for this stage in the "jackpot roll".

For the estimated ticket sales I used the following links below:
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
and then click on view, or use the direct link for this draw, see below
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191123.pdf

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Update (~315 pm):

The next Mega Millions draw looks good at -750 for the no prop.
My early estimate is up to 20 million (\$40 million) tickets sold for the next draw
~6%+ is my early edge for the "no bettor", I will write a proper summary closer to the draw .
I am going to have 1/3 of my bet now at the -750, and hope for an increase^^^ in odds closer to the draw.
^^^: At 5dimes, I assume the "public money" is normally on the "yes prop" because, the odds either don't change or the "no prop" odds get bigger closer to draw time (at least for the early jackpot rolls).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 23, 2019
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 841
Thanks for this post from:
November 23rd, 2019 at 10:09:26 PM permalink
For the Powerball draw on the 11/23/2019, I put 2755 down to win 190 (bet roughly 12.3% of bank roll).

Starting Bal: 22,335
Finishing Bal: 22,525
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.9324...%
Odds Taken: -1450
Actual EV: ~ +2.548...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,133,899
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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For the next Mega Millions draw there is a high chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/26/2019"
Odds: -750
Estimated Tickets: 17 to 20 million (or \$34 to \$40 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~93.603...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +6.08...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 15.2% of bank roll (currently have 5.2% of my bank-roll down, will bet the rest closer to game time)
Will I have a bet: yes

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Other info:

My actual estimate for this draw (before making adjustments to make the "no jackpot" bet "safer") is: 18 million tickets (+/- 1 million)

There are currently only odds up for the next Mega Millions, I will add information about the next Powerball closer to the draw date.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 23, 2019